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Campbell Brown
Next Big Test Nears For Democratic Presidential Candidates
Aired May 05, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight: the next big test for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Ten hours from now, at 6:00 a.m. Eastern time, the first polls open in the Indiana primary, and North Carolina will start voting about half-an-hour after that, the candidates working hard right up until the end.
Senator Clinton is set to speak this hour in New Albany, Indiana, just outside Louisville, Kentucky. We are going to keep an eye on this picture. And when she begins, we will have it for you live. Senator Obama will speak later tonight in Indianapolis. He's traveling in from Durham, North Carolina, where he spoke to reporters earlier this afternoon.
Both candidates started today before dawn here. We are going to give you, as we always do, the "View From 30,000 Feet."
Hillary Clinton spent the morning in Greenville and High Point, North Carolina, then flew to Indiana to campaign in Merrillville, New Albany, and Evansville. Barack Obama started his day in Evansville, before crisscrossing the region twice, flying to Durham, North Carolina, then returning to Indianapolis.
Even Republican John McCain was in North Carolina today attending a Chamber of Commerce meeting in Charlotte.
As the candidates make their final push for votes, the CNN poll of polls shows Obama ahead by eight points in North Carolina and Clinton leading in Indiana by four points.
We have got the best political team on television with us. CNN is the most comprehensive one-stop site for political coverage.
There's out advertisement.
Now our correspondents. Suzanne Malveaux is traveling with the Clinton campaign and senior political correspondent Candy Crowley is covering the Obama campaign.
And, Candy, let me start with you.
Both Obama and Clinton have been shuttling back and forth as we said between Indiana and North Carolina today. The gas tax dispute seems to be the big topic of conversation. What's the message we're hearing now from Obama? How is he trying to use it to his advantage? CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, they're aware that there's populist appeal to the idea of not having a federal gas tax for a couple of months.
What they're doing on the ground and in advertisements is saying, wait a second. This is a bad idea. Most economists say it's a bad idea. It will drive up the price of gasoline. They say this is a political stunt by Hillary Clinton.
Now, what this does for Barack Obama is it goes to her weakness and it plays to his strength. Listen to him on the ground.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The majority of people do find me trustworthy, more than they do the other candidate. And we can't solve problems if people don't think that their leaders are telling them the truth.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CROWLEY: So he's trying to sort of turn this upside down, Campbell, saying, yes, it sounds good, but she is just another do- anything, say-anything candidate. I'm not the guy that is not like any other politician -- Campbell.
BROWN: And she struggled with that issue, the trust issue, in a number of polls. So, you're right, playing into some of those perceptions.
And, Candy, both of the candidate have said that they see this race continuing at least until the beginning of June. So, tomorrow is certainly not going to end the battle, but what do they think constitutes a win for Obama?
CROWLEY: They would like to win North Carolina. That would be a win for him. Would they like to win both? Absolutely.
But they believe that coming out of here -- and all the math points to it -- he will have the most pledged delegates, even if he lost both. But they are expecting to win in North Carolina. They concede that Indiana is a tougher road. Nonetheless, as you see, he is up there tonight. But you can always tell where a candidate expects they have the best chance. And where they alight on election night. He will be down here in Raleigh.
BROWN: All right, thanks, Candy. Appreciate it.
And let's bring in Suzanne Malveaux now in Merrillville, Indiana, where Senator Clinton spoke just a few hours ago.
And, Suzanne, talk us through how Senator Clinton is appealing to voters this last day, she too hammering at the issue of gas tax relief for the summer.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, it's interesting, too. She is telling voters and she's pleading them to come forward to call their friends, to e-mail, saying that literally it's their futures that depend on this.
It's also her campaign obviously that is depending on this as well. The main strategy here is really to try to paint Barack Obama, who is -- someone who is out of touch with the working-class people, those who are struggling, those who have been most loyal to her. So, she talks about saving peoples' homes, the housing crisis.
And she also talks about health care, mandating universal health care, and then, finally, the gas tax issue here, saying that this is something that she believes she can at least give a temporary break. She realizes Barack Obama's calling it a gimmick, some sort of long- term solution. But she is saying short term is good enough. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So, I think you should have some immediate relief. In fact, I think it's a false choice, as my opponent and others have been trying to say, oh, we can't do anything in the short run to help people. We can only worry about what we do in the long run.
People live in the short run. People get up every day and have to go fill up their tanks. They have got to go to the grocery store.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: So, Campbell, she also says, too, it's like, look, perhaps $20 minute doesn't mean a lot to Barack Obama. She says it means a lot to the folks that she talks to, obviously trying to work out -- reach out to those working-class voters -- Campbell.
BROWN: And, Suzanne, domestic issues have been the primary focus here, but Iran as you know has also become an issue especially over the last couple of days with some recent remarks that Senator Clinton made. What -- explain to people what she said.
MALVEAUX: Well, first of all, she said that if Iran attacked Israel with a nuclear weapon, that the U.S. under her administration would retaliate, would attack Iran, and not only that, that the U.S. could obliterate the country.
Obviously, those seen as incendiary remarks by Barack Obama, and his camp, and some others, but, essentially, what she is doing here is, she doesn't have those 3:00 a.m. TV ads that she had that worked so well in Pennsylvania and Texas. They're not here in Indiana or North Carolina.
But what she is trying to do is remind voters, hey, I have got the national security credentials here. I'm the tough one when it comes to this race. I'm the one who is going to protect you. That is why she is fully engaged in this whole thing over Iran -- Campbell.
BROWN: OK. Thanks, Suzanne. We appreciate it. So, as Suzanne and Candy were telling us, Senators Clinton and Obama out courting voters at this furious pace, but we want to talk about what they can do in both states to try to pick up as many votes as possible.
And we have John King with us at the magic wall.
Welcome back, John.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, how are you?
BROWN: Let's start with Indiana, first of all, and I know focus on areas where I think both of them stand to gain some votes. As we mentioned earlier, Senator Clinton leading by -- slightly, I think four points...
(CROSSTALK)
KING: Slightly, about four points.
And if you look at the map, We use this to judge the neighborhood, if you will. Clinton won in Ohio. Obama won in Illinois. So, Indiana is a battleground, one of the reasons it is about a four-point lead.
So, if you're Senator Obama, this is your biggest vote, Campbell, right up here. I want to pull this down to a little bit just so everyone can see. That's Chicago. They know Barack Obama. Chicago TV has covered his entire political career. Chicago TV is shown throughout most of the state up here. The best thing for Barack Obama, the biggest test, right up in this congressional district right here, Gary, Indiana, majority African-American.
The whole state of Indiana, only about 9 percent African- American, but this district right up in here and this county right here, it's about 25 percent African-American. So, this is key to Barack Obama right here.
Let's turn this off and pull this back up a little bit.
BROWN: Yes.
KING: The other key places for Barack Obama, Indianapolis has a significant African-American population. Bloomington is a college town, I.U., the places where he tends to do very well. If he's going to pull off an upset, it will be based there.
I'm going to use red for Senator Clinton here. This is critical for Senator Clinton. This congressional district right through here, this is conservative Democrats who supports -- opposes abortion rights -- excuse me -- supports gun rights, doesn't think you should rush the troops home from Iraq, a very conservative, white working-class district, critical for Senator Clinton.
Let's come back down on the map again up here. Remember Pennsylvania and Catholic votes? What is in South Bend, Indiana? That's the University of Notre Dame. This is -- the 2nd Congressional District of the state is right in this area up here. George W. Bush carried this. It's a Democratic congressman right now, but a conservative Democrat. George W. Bush carried it twice, Catholic voters, white working-class voters.
Senator Clinton needs that and needs that big to if she is to carry the state. More rural out here, farm economy, she has tended to do better with those votes. But if you're Barack Obama, these blue areas, where you must turn out big highlights, and this will be -- as we watch the results come in, I would watch this one congressional district as a test of Clinton.
BROWN: Got it.
Take us through North Carolina.
KING: Let's move over. Let's come over here, bring out North Carolina.
And, actually, I want to go back just one second to look at the neighborhood. Where there are significant African-American populations, Barack Obama does well. You would expect him to do well there. If Senator Clinton is to pull off an upset here, it will be because of white support. That's an 89 percent white district out right. African-Americans lives along the city corridor right here. That's critical for Barack Obama.
Some conservative Democratic areas up here and down here that we will watch for Senator Clinton. But this one here, because you have more than 20 percent of the state being African-American, favors Barack Obama.
BROWN: All right, John King for us.
And we should mention, you are going to stick around, will be back later to talk about the delegate count, as we always do. John King for us.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Coming up: great expectations. How do Senators Obama and Clinton think they will do in tomorrow's primary? We will hear from them coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: I started very far behind. The Obama campaign has predicted consistently that he would win both Indiana and North Carolina by significant margins. I think we have closed the gap, but we're working hard. We want to get everybody we can to come out and vote tomorrow.
(END VIDEO CLIP) BROWN: That is Hillary Clinton this morning telling "AMERICAN MORNING"'s John Roberts that she does not expect to do that well in North Carolina or Indiana.
The truth is, both Democrats have a lot to gain tomorrow. Obama needs a win to gain momentum. Clinton needs a win to keep it.
Our political panel is here to talk about the expectations for both candidates.
We have got Steve Kornacki, political columnist for "The New York Observer," Tara Wall, deputy editorial page editor for "The Washington Times" and former director of outreach for the Republican National Committee, and "TIME" magazine editor at large and CNN senior political analyst Mark Halperin.
Welcome to everybody.
Mark, less than 10 hours until the first poll opens. You heard Hillary Clinton setting her own expectations, or trying to. What constitutes a victory for her?
MARK HALPERIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, we have had some nights with ambiguity about what the stakes are and what the expectations are. I think she must win Indiana.
BROWN: At least?
HALPERIN: At least, and must do very well in North Carolina to keep this race plausible, to keep her chances of winning plausible.
But even the best case, even if she wins both decisively, she revolutionizes the expectations and the momentum, but her delegate math is still very hard.
BROWN: Tara?
TARA WALL, DEPUTY EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR, "THE WASHINGTON TIMES": Yes, absolutely.
I think that she is downplaying it quite a bit. She doesn't want to overreach here. But she has that slight lead in Indiana. North Carolina, I don't think that she is going to be able to pull that out.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: But she has made a lot of headway.
WALL: She certainly has. She's certainly close the gap. And obviously that's because of all of the bitter comments and the Reverend Wright and all of that.
Remember, her likability is still, you know, pretty low, and, you know, she has got trust factors, trust issues as well. And she does have to go out there and continue to court those suburban areas, the rural areas, where she does well in, in North Carolina and Indiana. Obama, on the other hand, in Indiana, he has got to focus on reintroducing himself and getting away from that elitist image.
BROWN: What about Obama, Steve?
STEVE KORNACKI, COLUMNIST, "THE NEW YORK OBSERVER": Well, two weeks ago, we were talking about how Hillary Clinton had the expectations working in her favor in Pennsylvania. Now I think the expectations are working in Barack Obama's favor a little bit, because we're talking about how Hillary Clinton closed the gap so much in North Carolina.
And if this thing sort of reverts to form, like every other state has to date, and Obama ends up winning this thing by a high single- digit, low double-digit margin, which has been the expectation throughout the entire campaign, suddenly, instead of saying, well, Obama did what we thought he would do, we would be saying, well, after Hillary Clinton closed the gap and made such a run in North Carolina, Barack Obama did OK. Maybe he hasn't taken on as much water as we have been saying...
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Is he an underdog now? His wife has been saying that on the campaign trail. Can he plausibly make that case, Mark?
(CROSSTALK)
HALPERIN: He's not the underdog.
And, look, this is more about the general election, I think, for Barack Obama, because his delegate lead is so firm amongst the elected elections. I think, tomorrow, if he wins North Carolina, even by seven or eight, he's going to have done it largely on the strength of African-American vote being overwhelmingly for him.
I think the best thing for him tomorrow is to do better than he's done with white working-class voters in both states, no matter what the overall outcome.
BROWN: To show that he's made a connection with them and made some gains...
(CROSSTALK)
HALPERIN: And can plausibly say, look, you can trust me in the general election against John McCain. I get it. Even with Reverend Wright being in the news in the run-up to these two primaries, even with all this talk about economics, I held my own and I improved with that key group of voters.
BROWN: OK. Stay with us.
Steve, Tara and Mark are all coming back.
Senator Clinton's comment about America's ability to -- quote -- "obliterate" Iran is drawing sharp criticism from her opponent. And that has got some voters thinking about which of the candidates is tough enough to be commander in chief. The great foreign policy split -- that when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: The Democratic candidates are split now over how to react if one of the axis of evil countries goes nuclear, Barack Obama telling CNN today his opponent sounded a bit like President Bush when she said that the U.S. would be able to obliterate Iran if it used nukes against Israel.
Listen first to what Clinton told CNN today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: So when the question was asked what would the United States do were Iran to launch a nuclear attack on Israel, I said very clearly there would be massive retaliation.
OBAMA: If you're running for president, you shouldn't be stirring up international incidents. We now have Iran bringing complaints to the United Nations. Particularly when you're doing it right before an election, it's probably not the best way to approach foreign policy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: So, how much will voters be influenced by this division?
Let's bring back our political panel, "New York Observer"'s Steve Kornacki, Tara Wall of "The Washington Times," and "TIME" magazine's Mark Halperin.
Steve, the last thing -- the last thing the Democratic base wants right now is war in the Middle East. What's she doing? Why is she talking about this? Why is she phrasing it this way?
KORNACKI: She's not going after the Democratic base that is defined by opposition to the war. She is still going after this sort of working-class vote that she has been sort of -- she's based her campaign on the last couple of months.
It's sort of funny how she has morphed from being the angry feminist of the 1990s who every conservative had on their dartboard. Now she is sort of the Archie Bunker of 2008. It's an amazing transformation.
But this fits in with that completely. It is a totally sort of needless ploy for her to take. It's the same thing as the gas tax, where you're offering something as bait to working-class voters. You want to provoke a response to Barack Obama and then you want to paint him either as weak or you want to paint him in the case of the gas tax as elitist and siding with all the pointy-headed intellectuals, and here I am, the Archie Bunker candidate in the race who is going to stand with you, the working people, because they -- it is a classic Bill Clinton playbook.
He did the same thing. I watched him do this in 1992. The only reason he won the Democratic nomination in 1992 was because he baited the middle class with a promise of a tax cut. And he had an opponent named Paul Tsongas, a good man who told the truth about the issue, and said, you can't afford it.
Bill Clinton said, no, you're a pointy-headed intellectual. He won the nomination. He won the presidency. Two weeks after he took office, he said, I can't cut taxes.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Tara, is she Archie Bunker? I can't believe I'm asking this question, but...
(LAUGHTER)
WALL: You know, look, you know, it's -- no one's going to argue but that she is cracking down on Iran.
And I think that that goes a long ways to what Steve said, because this is what she has to do. The gas tax, these are things she has to do. And it's working. The point is, it's working.
Barack Obama can criticize it all he wants, but it's almost disingenuous to a point, because he is the same person who said he would sit down with Ahmadinejad, the president of Iran. And this is the same man, Ahmadinejad, who has said that, you know, he wants to get rid of the Jewish Israeli state.
Barack Obama has got to think about his words before he uses them. This is going to come back to haunt her, though, should she get the nomination in the long run, in the general election in a number of ways, because she does have to appeal to the broader base of the Democrat Party.
BROWN: Right.
Mark?
HALPERIN: I'm not so sure she said it on purpose.
But the dynamic you see between these two campaigns and their war rooms now is, when one of them makes a mistake or something that is perceived as a mistake, the other side attacks. And they both just stay at it, right in each other's faces. And I think that's what you're seeing here. I think it's what you're seeing on the gas tax, too. They don't want to back down.
BROWN: All right, guys, Steve, Tara, and, Mark, thanks a lot. Appreciate you being here.
So, if Hillary Clinton wins both Indiana and North Carolina tomorrow, does that mean she could actually upend Barack Obama and win the Democratic nomination? The man who helped get her husband elected is now one of her biggest supporters. He says yes. I'm going to ask him how.
And we will find out what Barack Obama's camp has to say about that just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Those numbers and the racial makeup of those two states offer one reason why Hillary Clinton trails Barack Obama in North Carolina.
Based on demographics alone, Indiana is much more likely to give her the boost she needs to stay in the race.
And, earlier, I asked Clinton supporter and CNN contributor James Carville about tomorrow's primaries and Clinton's chances of winning the Democratic nomination.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: James, you're quoted on Newsweek.com saying the following about Hillary Clinton, that the onus is on her, that she's got to do better than tie.
JAMES CARVILLE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right.
BROWN: If she wins Indiana and North Carolina, she is the nominee.
That's setting pretty high expectations for her. So, if she doesn't win North Carolina and Indiana, do you think she's out of it?
CARVILLE: No.
(LAUGHTER)
CARVILLE: No. It goes on. You fight on. But she's got to win one of the two, of course.
But if she wins Indiana and loses North Carolina, they will go on. We have Oregon. We have Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico. There's a lot left to play here. And we still have to do something about Florida and Michigan.
So, there's a lot of game left here. But if she were to win both of them, that would pretty much ice it for her.
BROWN: If he wins both of them, though...
CARVILLE: I agree.
BROWN: ... does he then become the nominee?
CARVILLE: I think it's highly likely. If he wins both Indiana and North Carolina, I think his position becomes very strong.
BROWN: But if there's any gray area, she stays in it, she goes all the way?
CARVILLE: Well, again, I don't know who stays in or who stays out. There's two questions here. Does somebody get out or does somebody win the nomination?
I think if Senator Obama were to win Indiana and North Carolina, that he would be in a very advantageous position. By the same token, to be fair, if Senator Clinton were to win both, I think she would be in an equally advantageous position.
BROWN: You know, no matter what happens tomorrow, almost every analyst out there says that she has basically no chance to overtake his lead in pledged delegates, that it really is about the superdelegates. You have got to agree with that.
(CROSSTALK)
CARVILLE: Well, first of all, what's more important? Because she may very well win the popular vote. So, who decided that the pledged delegates were more important than the popular vote? I wouldn't buy that for a moment.
And let's see at the end of this process who's ahead in the popular vote. So, that's one of the factors that people -- but I can't imagine any Democrat arguing that a delegate is more important than a voter.
BROWN: Let me ask you about the gas tax. Hillary Clinton, as you know, is pushing the idea of suspending the gas tax this summer.
CARVILLE: Right.
BROWN: It's very controversial. Not a single economist has endorsed the idea. Obama is calling it a gimmick.
CARVILLE: Right.
BROWN: There's a poll in "The New York Times" today that says most voters agree -- 70 percent of them think that it's just a ploy to get votes, rather than a sound proposal.
CARVILLE: Right.
BROWN: I mean, level with me here. Is it not a transparent ploy for votes?
CARVILLE: Of course -- you know what? I don't how to say this, but there's people out there hurting with gas prices. And I think that she understands that.
The fact that economists say that is pretty meaningless. I think that -- by the way, her gas tax paid for by the oil companies. Now, if you think that a company who is making $10 billion a quarter can't afford to pony up a little bit during this time, then be an economist. If you think that these oil companies pony up and help get these prices down, pick up some of this gas tax, then be a Democrat. BROWN: All right. We have got to end it there.
CARVILLE: All right.
BROWN: James Carville, always good to talk to you.
CARVILLE: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: When we come back, I will ask a senator who is backing Barack Obama to tell us how he can finally show voters that he can close the deal.
And, right now, we want to show you some live pictures of Hillary Clinton. That is her campaigning in New Albany, Indiana, tonight, with 10 hours to go.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've probably taken as many hits as anybody has in this presidential campaign. Senator Clinton has not. John McCain certainly has not. And yet, I'm still here and, you know, competitive in both North Carolina and Indiana.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Clinton and Obama continue to slug it out from before the break at dawn to late at night on the eve of this battle for voters in two critical primaries, Indiana and North Carolina. We just heard Obama say he can take the punches. We heard a moment ago from James Carville. He says that if Clinton were to win both states, she would be the nominee.
Polls open in just over nine hours and both candidates are hoping to strike a decisive blow. Joining us now for a look at last-minute strategy from the Obama camp, we've got Missouri senator and Obama supporter, Claire McCaskill. Senator, welcome to you.
SEN. CLAIRE MCCASKILL (D), MISSOURI: Thank you very much.
BROWN: I don't have to tell you what has dominated the headlines for Barack Obama over the last week. And let me just ask you straight up, how much do you think the Reverend Wright controversy will hurt Barack Obama tomorrow?
MCCASKILL: You know, I think marginally it will hurt him. But I think he has shown -- you know, what he's tried to do, Campbell, at every turn is to be very straightforward, very honest with the voters. And that's what people are yearning for. They don't want election year gimmicks. They don't want distortions and half truths.
They just want somebody who's going to level with them, and I think he has leveled with them about how angry he was and outraged he was at what Reverend Wright did this week. I think he's done a pretty good job of putting it behind him and tomorrow we'll see.
BROWN: He has said before that Indiana is the tie breaker between him and Senator Clinton. And right now, I know you know the polls show her slightly ahead of him there. If Senator Obama does lose Indiana after losing Pennsylvania, wouldn't that mean that there are a large number of Democrats out there that just aren't convinced he should be their nominee?
MCCASKILL: Hey, this is a tough contest. I mean, we need to give senator credit -- Senator Clinton great credit for how hard she has fought. These are two terrific candidates. Our party should be proud.
But, you know, James Carville is an amazing guy because he can actually with a straight face say two plus two equals five. Two plus two does not equal five.
What is going to happen after tomorrow is we're going to add up the delegates. Barack got three more delegates today, three more superdelegates today. He has now narrowed the superdelegate count to less than 20. It used to be at 100. He continues to win more delegates, and I think that tomorrow's success or failure will be defined by who wins the most delegates.
BROWN: Well, let me ask you about what Carville said because he's -- they are arguing, I should say, the Clinton campaign, that this shouldn't be about pledged delegates. That the popular vote is more important, that something still needs to be done about votes from Florida and Michigan. Is that fair? Are they trying to change the rules?
MCCASKILL: You know, these goal posts have been moved so many times. They haven't been in the stadium for a while. Terry McAuliffe said at the beginning of the year, this is all about the delegates, and then the delegate thing didn't work out. Now, it's all about something else.
The bottom line is Senator Obama has done what anyone should do in this race. He has gone to every state. He has campaigned for every delegate, and he is winning by the measure that we have determined in our party to control who gets the nomination. If he has the most pledged delegates at the end of the primaries, he has earned the nomination and I am confident the superdelegates will agree.
BROWN: All right. Senator McCaskill, we appreciate your time tonight. Thanks so much for joining us.
MCCASKILL: Thank you.
BROWN: And the CNN ELECTION CENTER is the place to be tomorrow night. I'm going to be here along with the best political team in television. We will have complete results and analysis from the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. It all starts at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time. And we are going to keep watching Senator Clinton live in New Albany, Indiana, as we go to break. Some say Senator Clinton can't win enough delegate votes to pull it out. We're doing the delegate math in the ELECTION CENTER when we come back.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It is time that somebody said wait a minute. They manipulate their currency. They violate the international --
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Time to do a little math, everybody. The delegate math, that is, going into tomorrow's all-important primaries with 187 delegates at stake. Obama is up to 1,745 by CNN's count. Clinton is at 1,602. It certainly presents an uphill challenge for the senator from New York, but is there any possible way she can make the math work for her?
We get answers from chief national correspondent John King. John, let's talk about the battle for delegates and let's start with, I guess, the best case scenario for Senator Clinton.
JOHN KING, CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: The only case scenario really for Senator Clinton, Campbell, is to improve her math to change the psychology, because I want to show you that even if she wins the rest, even if she wins the rest of the contests by 55-45, let's say, there's no reason to believe she'll win them all. But let's just assign her Indiana 55-45, North Carolina 55-45, Puerto Rico 55-45. Come out here to the mountain west, go all the way out here to the state of Oregon, and what has happened?
She has won. We need to give her West Virginia. We need to give her Kentucky. She has won all the remaining contests, and she has come close but she has not caught Barack Obama. So what she needs to do is win most of them, and start winning by big margins in the pledged delegates so then she can go to the superdelegates and say my math has improved. The psychology of the race has changed. Barack Obama is stumbling at the end.
Get the superdelegates to come to her. So it's about math but it's more importantly for her about psychology.
BROWN: OK. So Obama says math is on my side and they're very confident when they make their case. Why the confidence?
KING: Because they're right when they say math is on their side. Let's switch over to this. Let's come over to this here, and we'll show you why.
This is where we are tonight. Let me clear the board of those lines. This is where we are tonight at this yellow line. The red line is the finish line.
Assume they split the delegates 50/50 the rest of the race, so there's about 406 regular delegates left. Let's give Senator Clinton even a little more than 50 percent. Let's give the rest to Senator Obama.
And then, if they split the superdelegates 50/50, that would get you about 50 percent. She gets close to the finish line but when Barack Obama got his 50 percent, he would cross the finish line. So even if they went 50/50 the way out, Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee. That is why his side is very confident that the math, Campbell, is overwhelmingly in his favor.
BROWN: All right. Thank you, John. We want to hear what our panel thinks about all this.
And we've got CNN contributor Roland martin, senior political analyst Gloria Borger. And from Portland, Oregon, tonight, conservative radio talk show host Lars Larson joining us. Welcome to everybody.
Gloria, let me start with you. This morning "Los Angeles Times" reported that two California superdelegates said, who are publicly for Clinton, said that they will switch to Obama if the delegate math remains what it is and continues to build for him. Do you see a path to victory for her given what John just told us and what people are saying like these two superdelegates?
GLORIA BORGER, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, it's kind of like you have to run the table and not only do you have to run the table but you have to run the table by 60/40 margins. So it is very, very tough. And I think what you're going to see if they split tomorrow, which the polls say is very likely, that this contest is going to continue until the very end and then the superdelegates are going to have to decide.
And believe me, I've talked to a bunch of superdelegates, Campbell, they are really not interested in dragging this out, and they don't want to decide how the Democratic Party goes in this nomination. They just want to kind of fade into the woodwork and go with their constituents or their heads and kind of leave it alone, but they want the decision to be made for them. The problem is that may not happen.
BROWN: Roland, let me ask you about something that's been going on the last couple of weeks. CNN released a review of political ads nationwide today, and it shows that Obama now is playing a starring role in at least nine Republican political ads aimed at undercutting Democrats in local races. Is this something that you think the -- I mean, I understand how it's playing out at the local level. But is this something do you think the superdelegates are tuning in to or paying attention to?
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I take a different view on that. I think these actually help the superdelegates because the Republicans are defining who they think is going to be the nominee in November. OK. If the Republicans actually thought Senator Hillary Clinton had a shot between the nomination, trust me, she will be starring in these ads.
And so, this is solidifying in the view that, hey, he is the guy who's going to be facing John McCain. So sure, it comes across as a negative but frankly for him, it's a net positive because they're simply reaffirming that.
BROWN: Lars, do you agree with what Roland just said? And at this point, frankly, who do you think conservatives would rather run against?
LARS LARSON, HOST, "LARS LARSON SHOW": I don't know. Either one of them looks pretty good to me because you've got Barack Obama sort of the fatally flawed candidate. People don't trust him over the whole pastor mishap. That's a big problem for him still. There's a trust factor there.
And Hillary, boy, Hillary and her 18 cent savings on the gasoline tax adopting that idea from John McCain, God bless her. It was a bad idea when John McCain proposed it. It's even worse with Hillary Clinton behind it. And then Obama with his $15 billion windfall profits tax on the oil companies that somehow he believes the voters are too dumb to recognize will be passed right on to us right at the pump. I mean, I just love this at this point.
MARTIN: But, you know, Campbell, this is what I love about this here. OK. And Lars --
BROWN: There you just got the Republican talking points.
MARTIN: You know, obviously, obviously, Lars makes an excellent point. But, you know, if I'm a Democrat, I'm going to go every single John McCain rally and hand him an Alan Greenspan book because he clearly says I don't much about the economy. That is going to be the central issue.
Clearly he is going to have a lead on national security. They can go after him on the economy, and he is not strong there. The Republicans should be concerned about that.
BORGER: And, you know, Campbell, the ads anyone is making now are not the ads they are going to be making come September and October. I mean, right now, they're going against Obama because he is the front-runner.
MARTIN: Of course.
BORGER: And because Hillary Clinton is attacking him in a way defined their message. But we're going to see very different kinds of ads on both sides.
BROWN: Let me ask you quickly, guys, because I don't have a ton of time left, but Lars, when you sit here tomorrow night and watch the exit polls coming in, what are you going to be looking for? This is -- I'm asking you to be a strategist here, I know, but --
LARSON: Oh, listen, I think what I'm going to be looking for, I think Obama is going to do very well in North Carolina. You know that. And the split is going to be a lot like what John outlined. And even if it's 55/45, Hillary Clinton cannot get the delegates that she needs or the popular vote she needs to pull this out.
I don't know what trick they're going to pull out of the bag. I expect the Clintons will pull something out of the bag to try and take this guy down, but that means more trouble for the Democrats. I mean, if they take the man out who really has won it fair and square at this point, I look at it, I look back at what the Republicans did.
Mitt Romney knew when it was time to say it's done, and Hillary Clinton should have done that a long time ago. She's damaging her own party. This contest is not doing the Democrats any good, so I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the results.
BROWN: I think as most Republicans -- I'm sorry guys, we got to end it there. But to Gloria, to Roland and to Lars, appreciate your time tonight, everybody.
We're going to put this race through the ELECTION CENTER "War Room" coming up. We'll also check on other headlines. We're going to show you the latest pictures of some devastating damage in Myanmar, and we'll tell you what people are doing to help, coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Larry King is also watching tomorrow's critical primaries, and tonight he's got some powerful supporters for Senators Clinton and Obama. Larry, who's with you tonight?
LARRY KING, HOST, "LARRY KING LIVE": Oh, we sure do. It's so nice to be in New York with you.
BROWN: It's good to have you here in New York.
KING: And I'll be at -- I'll be at ELECTION CENTER tomorrow night at midnight. I'll be right part of the scene with the gang.
BROWN: Excellent. It's about time. I'm thrilled.
KING: It's the best election team in the business.
BROWN: All right.
KING: Anyway, we know they're slugging away at each other with the primaries coming up tomorrow. And the two primary people we'll have on, Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, of course, a big Obama supporter, and Governor Mike Easley of North Carolina, a supporter of Hillary.
Will Tuesday's events be the deciding factor in this fight? Who knows? We'll try to unravel it all tonight at the top of the hour. We're all over it.
BROWN: All right. Larry, and we'll see you tomorrow night live and in person right here with us.
KING: You got it. Thanks. BROWN: OK. Both Clinton and Obama continue to campaign into the night ahead of tomorrow's primaries in North Carolina and Indiana. We will head into our "War Room" for a final strategy session in just a bit. But first, Gary Tuchman joins us with "The Briefing" -- Gary.
GARY TUCHMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, hello to you.
The death toll from a devastating cyclone in Myanmar continues to rise. Officials said that the number of dead could top 15,000. The cyclone slammed the country once known as Burma with winds of 120 miles an hour. The killer storm also left hundreds of thousands homeless. Just hours ago, First lady Laura Bush attacked the ruling military junta there for failing to provide early warning.
A very scary report out today on how doctors should decide who to save and who to let die when a natural disaster or a pandemic strikes. The guidelines from government agencies, the military and universities recommend not giving treatment to people older than 85, people with advanced chronic diseases or those already suffering from severe trauma. The report appears in "Chest," the journal of the American College of Chest Physicians.
And finally, this from a suburban Chicago school bus driver. He wants his name to be changed to "In God We trust," just like it says on your money. And he has asked a Lake County judge to make it legal. Steve Kreuscher (ph) is afraid atheists may succeed in removing the phrase from U.S. currency.
And Campbell, I think Steve is a little snappier.
BROWN: Wait. Why does changing his name, though, help with the attempts to get it off of money? I don't really get that.
TUCHMAN: Sounds like a publicity campaign to me, Campbell.
BROWN: OK. All right. Thanks, Gary, appreciate it.
You know, we hear a lot of talk about what the candidates will do tomorrow. We have right here on our "War Room" two men who have run presidential campaigns. We're going to ask them if the candidates are actually doing the right thing. That's coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: And we're counting down now with just hours to go until the polls open in Indiana and North Carolina. In our "War Room" tonight, we've got two seasoned veterans of presidential campaigns. Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, served as adviser for John Kerry in 2004. He has not endorsed nor contributed to any candidate in this presidential campaign. And Republican strategist Ed Rollins, a veteran of the Reagan White House and chairman of Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign, joining us as well. Welcome to both of you.
BOB SHRUM, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Thank you.
ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Glad to be here. BROWN: Bob --
SHRUM: Yes.
BROWN: Welcome to the "War Room." You know, we're just hours away as we mentioned from the big ones in North Carolina and Indiana. You are Obama's guy. That's your role tonight. You're ahead in North Carolina, let's say, behind in Indiana slightly, but both still in play.
How are you using your resources in these final, you know, 24 hours? You're concentrating on one state over the other?
SHRUM: No, I think there's an effort to do as much as you can in both states. They're putting a lot of money into advertising. One of the things that's remarkable about this is with the new technology we have, people are able to see an ad and two or three hours later have a response ad on the air. You're seeing a lot of ads on the gas tax, for example.
BROWN: Right.
SHRUM: But what's really interesting is that I think North Carolina has probably settled in somewhere in the seven, eight, nine- point range if you believe the polls, which have often been unreliable this year.
And Indiana is all over the map. I mean, some people think it's two or four. Some of the Clinton people are privately saying that they have a pretty big lead there. Now, that won't help them if they don't get close in North Carolina.
BROWN: Ed, what do you think? Especially if you are Clinton and, you know, you've got -- you've got to do well tomorrow. It certainly maybe --
(CROSSTALK)
ROLLINS: Well, you definitely have to win Indiana. You got to basically do that with some kind of a margin at four or five points. North Carolina, obviously, if she loses or loses big there, then I think to a certain extent the campaign slides back.
She could ever win both of them. She could obviously argue very effectively that she is the inevitable winner. She can win in the fall where Barack Obama has proven over the last seven, eight weeks that he is not a credible candidate.
BROWN: Bob, let me ask you to evaluate strategy and this is in particular Obama's strategy for how he dealt with the Wright issue. You know, it pretty much dominated the conversation over the last week especially. Do you think he handled it appropriately?
He was out there. He pretty much answered every question he was asked about it. Certainly over the weekend, he did as well again and again and again. Did he handle that appropriately? Was he able to put it behind him?
SHRUM: I think he did about as much as he could possibly do. Put it behind him? I think in the general election, he'll almost certainly have to come back and discuss it again. But look, because of what happened in Pennsylvania and actually Hillary Clinton didn't win by ten, she won by nine. It was psychologically important that everybody said 10 that night.
I think there's been a kind of press curve that's moved against Obama in the last few weeks. He had the press curve for a long time, and the result is that a bunch of elitist like us, for example, are sitting around talking about whether he's elite, the guy who just paid a student loan versus the Clintons who made $109 million. That has hurt him, I think.
BROWN: Was that effective strategy on her part? Was she able to make the most of that?
ROLLINS: Well, I think the most effective part of her strategy is she has come back three or four times in the course of this campaign and won when she thought, when everyone thought she was finished. I think she's a great campaigner, and I think she's done a tremendous job of coming back.
I think the argument here to the superdelegates is really what it's all about is I am tested. I know what the White House is about. I can win this thing in the fall.
You're betting on someone who's totally untested. Hasn't even really had a competitive race in his home state. So you want to roll the dice one more time, Democrats? Have at it.
BROWN: All right. They still --
SHRUM: Campbell --
BROWN: Hold on, Bob, and Ed, both. We're going to take a quick break. We've got a lot more ahead though. Will the last man or the last woman be standing after Indiana and North Carolina? And can these two opponents agree on anything? The surprise answer is coming right up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Two primaries in two states. Both candidates in a last- minute bid for crucial votes. These two primaries could change the momentum of the campaign. We are in the "War Room" again with Bob Shrum and Ed Rollins.
And Bob, Obama and Clinton are out hitting each other pretty hard, obviously, right now. But I do want you to listen to something they both said today quickly and then we'll talk about it on the other side.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Senator Clinton and I have a real argument, but it's not that much about policy for the most part. I mean, whatever differences she and I have, they pale in comparison to differences we have with John McCain.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Once we have a nominee, we're going to close ranks and have a unified party because the differences between us as Democrats pale in comparison to the differences we have with Senator McCain and the Republicans.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: So, pretty similar messages from such fierce competitors. No question this has been heated but what's this strategy behind promoting this sense of unity, I guess, right now at the very end?
SHRUM: Well, they both have to say that because they don't want to be blamed for the negative character of the campaign. Look, Hillary Clinton faces a situation where the math is inexorable. "The New York Times" poll today shows that she and Obama run about the same against McCain. The superdelegates are not going to buy these arguments and take the nomination away from someone who looks like he's legitimately won it.
So she needs a virtual sweep at the end of the primary. She's therefore abandoned her original campaign, which was centrist triangulating, and she's become a kind of shape shifting populist.
BROWN: But Bob, what's so interesting about it is yet she is conveying, you know, even if you -- as you say, no one's buying into the argument she's making, she's still the one who seems to be conveying the sense of momentum that she's turned things around.
SHRUM: Well, I think we are giving her a sense of momentum. We'll see whether it happens tomorrow night, whether the voters do.
And, by the way, I'm not arguing that people aren't buying into her argument. I think her gas tax argument may be working. I mean, we're not going to have a gas tax summer holiday. That's absolutely clear. Congress isn't going to pass it.
Bush isn't for it. It's a purely symbolic issue. But it is interesting that she's almost reached the point where you could see her adopting Dick Gephardt's slogan in 1988, "It's your fight, too." She's running as a populist.
BROWN: And Ed, I got to ask you, Senator McCain was asked about the race today and he said, "I observe with interest." He's got to be loving this right now.
ROLLINS: Well, sure. I mean, it's giving him an opportunity to basically develop his domestic program, to raise money, to put a campaign together that he didn't have when he started.
BROWN: Do you think he's making the most of his time? ROLLINS: I think he's doing a very effective job. He still has to reach out to evangelical Christians and some of the Republican base that he hasn't.
BROWN: All right. Ed Rollins for us tonight, along with Bob Shrum. Guys, appreciate it.
SHRUM: Thank you.
ROLLINS: Thank you.
BROWN: Thanks for being here. We should mention it all starts at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow night, our coverage of the primaries. Be with us.
That is it for us tonight. "LARRY KING LIVE" starts right now.
