Return to Transcripts main page
Campbell Brown
100,000 May Be Dead in Myanmar; What Will be Hillary's Next Move?
Aired May 07, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: In the ELECTION CENTER tonight, big news that could be the beginning of the end for Senator Hillary Clinton's campaign for president. We're going the hear what she had to say about that today.
But there's even bigger news tonight, a shocking headline -- 100,000 people could be dead. Conditions in Myanmar after Saturday's cyclone have gone from a crisis to an absolute catastrophe.
I'm going to take you there right now to the site of this massive disaster.
CNN's own Dan Rivers is one of few international journalists that have made it inside Myanmar. There's going to be a slight delay here, but Dan is joining us live now.
And, Dan, the numbers go up each day. First, we heard thousands. Then it was tens of thousands. And now we're hearing as many as 100,000 people dead. Is this an accurate estimate?
DAN RIVERS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, this has come from the most senior U.S. diplomat in Myanmar, Shari Villarosam who has access to information, to sources within the regime that probably we don't. And, so, one would guess she knows that this disaster is just growing in scale and tragedy every day.
I mean, it's getting to point now where it's just difficult, impossible really to comprehend that number of people who have died. We have traveled extensively throughout the damaged area, through this disaster zone. It's a river delta. It's very difficult to get around. It's crisscrossed by rivers and waterways.
But what we have seen has been heartrending, house after house completely flattened. In some places, almost 100 percent of the houses have been destroyed. People, those that have survived, are living on very, very meager supplies. A few places, we have talked to people who have got two, three days of rice left before the food runs out, and all this as the international aid effort to get in here is frankly frustrated by red tape and bureaucracy from the regime here.
BROWN: And, Dan, let me show people some of the stunning satellite images we're getting in, what part of the area looked like before the cyclone, and then now after washed away.
And let me ask you to address that. Is the government there doing anything at all to try to lessen the restrictions, to get aid in there a lot faster?
RIVERS: Well, the United Nations is now saying that they have been given permission to get some of their emergency response teams in.
But a lot of other international NGOs, aid agencies, are just not getting the help. The American government has a couple of warships in the Gulf of Thailand. They have got helicopters in neighboring Thailand. None of those important assets can get anywhere near here, because they're not being given permission to come in.
So, it's pretty frustrating. The international community wants to help. They want to come in and bring supplies. They want to get down to the most hard-to-reach (INAUDIBLE) But they're just not being allowed to do so at the moment. Hopefully, the military government here will see sense and will relax its restrictions on visas and so forth.
But, at the moment, the aid isn't getting to the people that need it by anywhere near the quantities that they need to. It's a pretty terrible situation.
And, as you say, from those satellite images, I mean, huge swathes of the delta have been inundated. There's talk of the storm surge of 20 feet in some places. So, this is an incredibly low-lying area. There's no safe high ground down there. There's very little that people could have one. Some people say they were warned. Others say they weren't. Even if you were warned, where would they have gone? There's one road in and there's one out in most places.
BROWN: Right.
RIVERS: And there's no high ground to go to for safety.
BROWN: And, Dan, I just want to point out to people that a cyclone is basically the same thing as a hurricane for our viewers here, so they understand, and to also add that this looks to be worse than the devastation caused by the tsunami almost four years.
But we should let people know that the reason you are not hearing as much about this, or it's taken time to get information to you and to get pictures like this from Myanmar is because of the restrictions that Dan was referencing. Explain why it's been so difficult and particularly for journalists, Dan.
RIVERS: It is, yes.
The government has made it very clear it doesn't want international journalists reporting on this story. Other international journalists have been turned away as they have arrived. It makes getting there, reporting this difficult, to say the least.
But you're right. There are some parallels with the tsunami. The scale is not quite there yet. But it's growing day by day. And 100,000 dead -- I think it was something like 270,000 in the tsunami. But the scenes are terrible down there, you know, some communities just completely and utterly destroyed. It will take years to rebuild. And it is already an incredibly impoverished country, a country really which has now has to (INAUDIBLE) years in terms of development.
BROWN: All right, Dan Rivers for us.
Dan, we really appreciate it. Thank for your time tonight.
And we know that you watch CNN to connect with the news. If you want to take action to try to help the victims in Myanmar, go to CNN.com/impact. We have links there to news on the recovery and the humanitarian efforts. There are also links to organizations that are helping in Myanmar right now. So, go there to check it all out.
And we do want to turn to the other big story, the presidential race. And there is one big question tonight. Given the blow to her campaign that these numbers brought, does Hillary Clinton have a chance to win the Democratic nomination?
Well, Senator Clinton no backing down from her. We're going to hear from her and Senator Obama after last night's primaries.
And let bring you now the "View From 30,000 Feet" night.
Obama's taking the night off in Chicago, after his victory in the North Carolina primary. Hillary Clinton's staying on the campaign trail with daughter, Chelsea, in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, the next primary state next Tuesday. Clinton then went to Washington for a Congress fund-raiser.
And John McCain appeared in Rochester, Michigan, near Detroit, before going to New York City for a TV appearance and a series of fund-raisers.
But all eyes are on Senator Clinton tonight. With only half-a- dozen contests left, her path to the party's presidential nomination has become nearly impossible, but she's still in it. And she made that clear today. She wrapped up a meeting with superdelegates just a short time ago.
Senior political correspondent Candy Crowley is in Washington with the latest on the Democratic race -- Candy.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, Campbell, I have talked to a number of superdelegates today. The big question, do you think she will stay in? Do you think she's going to get out?
And, in general, I got the same answer back. And that is, listen, this is Hillary Clinton's to decide. It's her campaign. And she says whether she's in or out. And what we learned today is, she is in.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) CROWLEY (voice-over): Hillary Clinton is gutsy, tireless and in West Virginia.
SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: West Virginia is one of those so-called swing states. Democrats need to win it in the fall. I want to start by winning it in the spring.
CROWLEY: She wasn't supposed to go to West Virginia today. But then last night the punditry pronounced her toast, and she needed to rewrite the headline. This one reads, not yet.
CLINTON: So, it's a new day. It's new state. It's a new election.
CROWLEY: She leads in West Virginia, so it's not a problem. Most everything else is.
Clinton had to lend her campaign more than $6 million recently. And a new e-mail urgently asks for donations. "We have never campaigned with the stakes as high or the time as short -- maybe shorter than she wants.
George McGovern, whose ties to the Clintons date back to McGovern's 1972 presidential campaign, has switched his support to Barack Obama. It's worse than that. He called on Clinton to get out of the race.
GEORGE MCGOVERN, FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: It seems that now is the time for us to think seriously about unifying the party behind a single candidate.
CROWLEY: McGovern says he talked to Bill Clinton about this, and there was no yelling. She put on her game face.
CLINTON: Well, I respect him, and he has a right to make whatever decision he makes. I was pleased today to get Heath Shuler's endorsement.
CROWLEY: McGovern is a psychological blow, but he is not a superdelegate.
Senator Dianne Feinstein is, and she is a Clinton supporter. She told reporters today, "I think the race is reaching a point where there are negative dividends in terms of strife within the party."
It is a simple sentence and an ominous sign for Clinton. Clinton wants to try to close the delegate gap with Obama. She needs more time while she argues other equations...
CLINTON: Look, if we had the rules that the Republicans have, I would already be the nominee.
CROWLEY: ... and other criteria.
CLINTON: We should stay focused on nominating the stronger candidate against Senator McCain and who would be the best president. CROWLEY: She met privately today with a group of superdelegates, pushing her case, asking for more time.
Though not in that group, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is on board with that.
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: I believe that the races must continue. The people should all have the opportunity to speak as long as two candidates wish to compete.
CROWLEY: By this evening, Clinton was at a fund-raiser in Washington. Headline? Still standing.
CLINTON: The most common thing that you say to me -- and I heard it several dozen times as I came in -- was, keep going. Keep fighting. Don't quit. Stand up for us.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CROWLEY: Barack Obama took some time down in Chicago today, while, nonetheless, picking another three superdelegates. His campaign is beginning to put together a fall strategy.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: And, Candy, is there anything that will convince Senator Clinton to get out, do you think, before the primaries are over in June?
CROWLEY: You know, anything or anybody.
I mean, look, her criteria has been, well, as soon as one of has enough delegates, then I will get out or stay in the race.
But, beyond that, the question I asked today to a number of people was, who? And they said, well, that's the interesting question. A party elder? You have got George McGovern. But she's not going to get out because he says she should.
You look at what Teddy Kennedy -- he supports Barack Obama. So, you go through that list. Al Gore, he is certainly is seen as the senior statesman in the party. She's not going to listen to Al Gore.
In the end, it really comes down to the Clintons. They have been the leading name in the Democratic Party for a decade now or more. And, in the end, it will be between her and her the former president.
BROWN: All right, Candy.
Candy Crowley for us tonight.
Well, do the math, everybody. Does it sound like Hillary Clinton has any chance at all becoming the president of the next United States? Or does she? CNN's John King has been spending the day crunching the numbers. And he will have the latest on the battle delegates when we return. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: I'm staying in this race until there's a nominee. And I obviously am going to work as hard as I can to become that nominee.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Well, you heard it, Hillary Clinton saying it's full steam ahead, in spite of the math that shows almost no chance of her winning.
But, tonight, there's new math being put out by the Clinton campaign that says that she can win, maybe. No one knows the numbers better than chief national correspondent John King. And he stopped by a little earlier to show me this new math.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: So, John, looking ahead now, Hillary Clinton says she's in it. But is there any scenario that you can see under which she really has a shot?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Any scenario? Yes. A likely scenario? Probably not. It's like if we were in Vegas, we would be trying to draw to an inside straight, if you play poker.
Next up is West Virginia, Campbell. It is a state built for her. It's 95 percent white. It is low-income. It has a high percentage of senior citizens. There is no place here where I can say, here's a 20 percent African-American community. There's Barack Obama's -- at least a foundation.
So, West Virginia's built for her, which is why she's in this race for another week. But the bigger equation in this campaign is now the delegate math. And the delegate math is more and more, even though they split the states last night, Indiana and North Carolina, a net gain for Barack Obama.
And let's look at it this way, because it puts the story in starker contrast, I think. Here is where are today, at this green line. The red line is the finish line. For the first time in the campaign, Campbell, there are more superdelegates out there to be had, lobbied by the candidates, than pledged delegates that you win on primary on caucus day.
And what does the math mean right now? If you look at where these two lines are, the magic number breaks down like this. Senator Clinton needs of the remaining 490, just shy of 500, delegates, she needs 339 of them. That's almost 70 percent. She needs to win 68 percent of the remaining delegates.
Barack Obama, though, he only needs 180. That's less than 40 percent, around 36 percent. So, if it broke down just even half and half -- and I will give Senator Clinton slightly more than half as we go forward, more than half of the superdelegates. Bring the rest down for Barack Obama. Give Senator Clinton a little more than half even of the pledged delegates.
And look what happens when I give Barack Obama the rest. I didn't even given him all. And he crosses the finish line.
BROWN: Right.
KING: So, a 50/50, even a 60/40 split, Barack Obama's your Democratic nominee. The daunting math for Senator Clinton is what she confronts the morning after Indiana and North Carolina.
BROWN: But there is this new math that the Clinton campaign is pushing that involves Florida and Michigan. Explain that.
KING: There's new math.
And let me come out to this math to explain the new math. We have Florida and Michigan. They look like zebras. Some have called them in e-mails to me prison stripes.
BROWN: Right.
(LAUGHTER)
KING: Because they were outside of the rules. They broke the rules. Their delegates do not count.
So, while we can go through all these other states and say, count the delegates, count the delegates, the only plausible scenario is for Hillary Clinton to convince the Democratic National Committee Rules Committee to say, we have to find a way to put these two states back into play.
She has strong, deep support there. They believe they would win if she had another primary or if they used the last results. But the last results didn't count. If you're the Barack Obama, Campbell, you're ahead in the pledged delegates. You're closing the gap in the superdelegates. You're ahead in the popular vote. Why would you agree to change the rules in midstream?
But that's the argument the Clinton campaign's going to make as long as she is in the race, that we have to find a way to deal with this problem.
The critical problem is, the Obama campaign will never agree to any compromise that they see that gives advantage Clinton.
BROWN: Clearly.
KING: So, for now, even as they say, we want new math, we have to go by what we assume to be the existing rules.
All right, John King for us tonight -- John, thanks.
KING: Thank you. (END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Coming up, so, how did Obama and Hillary Clinton learn math? Somehow, they take the same delegate numbers and seem to get different results. I'm going to ask each candidate's top adviser to explain how they do it.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: Tonight we have come from behind, we have broken the tie, and, thanks to you, it's full speed onto the White House.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Senator Clinton in Indianapolis last night, celebrating her modest victory in Indiana. Despite the odds, is there a strategy to the senator's vow to fight on?
Earlier, I asked Clinton communications director Howard Wilson about that.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Howard, we just heard from John King. And, as I'm sure you know, there's very difficult delegate math for you now. And some of your high-profile supporters are pretty uneasy.
Here's what former Senator George McGovern told CNN today.
He said: "I think mathematically the race is all but won by Barack Obama and the time has come for all of us to unite and get ready for the general election in the fall."
What are you seeing that McGovern isn't?
HOWARD WOLFSON, CLINTON CAMPAIGN COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Well, the first state ahead of us is West Virginia. It's a critically important swing state.
Any Democrat, I think, who I think who is running in November needs to be in a position to win it against John McCain. Democrats won it in '92 and '96. We lost it in 2000 and 2004. Senator Clinton flatly predicted that she would win West Virginia, if she were the nominee against John McCain. We're going to go to West Virginia tomorrow. We were there today. We're going to make our case as to why we would be the best nominee to carry a state like West Virginia.
BROWN: But, Howard, it's hard to ignore how worried Democrats are sounding.
And I'm talking about your supporters here. I mean, today, Senator Dianne Feinstein spoke out. I'm sure this quote has been thrown at you a couple of times today.
She said: "I think the race is reaching a point now where there are negative dividends in terms of strife within the party. I think we need to prevent that as much as we can."
You know, Senator Clinton, I know, says she's convinced that the ongoing race isn't hurting the party. But the party is starting to push back a little bit, isn't it?
WOLFSON: Well, look, I think this race has been great for the Democratic Party.
We have brought a million people into our rolls. We have gotten supporters of Senator Clinton and Senator Obama excited. And I think whoever the nominee is will have the united Democratic Party behind that person. I believe it will be Senator Clinton.
But, if it's Senator Obama, Senator Clinton will work very hard for him. And we all will. So, I don't think this process has been at all bad for the party. I think it's been great for the party, because it's generated excitement and enthusiasm.
BROWN: This morning, your campaign disclosed that Senator Clinton had loaned the campaign something like $6.4 million over the course of the last many weeks. What does it say about the strength of the campaign that there's not enough supporters coming in to keep you all afloat?
WOLFSON: Well, we had a great fund-raising month last month. We didn't do as well as Barack Obama, which is why Senator Clinton did loan the campaign money.
I think it speaks much more about Senator Clinton's strength than it does anything about the campaign's lack of strength. Senator Clinton is committed to this race. She has strong supporters who are committed with her.
If you're out there and you want to go to HillaryClinton.com, please do. But Senator Clinton believes in what she's doing. She believes that her message of bringing working-class and middle--class voters back into the Democratic Party is an important one. It's one that she's going to be articulating in West Virginia and going forward.
BROWN: All right, Howard Wolfson with us tonight -- Howard, thanks. Appreciate it.
WOLFSON: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: You will hear from the rival campaign next. I will ask Senator Obama's chief strategist a simple question: Is it time for Senator Clinton to call it quits now?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Many of the pundits have suggested that this party is inalterably divided, that Senator Clinton's supporters will not support me and that my supporters would not support her. Well, I am here tonight to tell you that I don't believe it.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Senator Barack Obama speaking to supporters last night after winning the North Carolina primary.
The party may be divided, but, right now, Obama has the winning numbers. And no one knows that better than the chief strategist for the Obama campaign, David Axelrod.
He said, "the math is the math." And I talked with him just a short time ago.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: David, welcome to you.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: So, just about every pundit in America says that it's over, that Barack Obama is the nominee, given what happened last night. Do you believe that? Is it over? Should Hillary Clinton drop out?
DAVID AXELROD, CHIEF OBAMA CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: Well, I think we're in a very strong position, Campbell. I don't think there's any question about that.
I have always resisted telling the Clinton campaign or Senator Clinton what to do. I think she's run a very, very strong campaign. She's a formidable, tenacious candidate. I also think she is someone who cares deeply about the Democratic Party and deeply about this country, knows we needs change. And I think she's going to make a decision about this at some point based on what she feels is appropriate.
BROWN: Florida and Michigan, though, Senator Clinton insists those delegations have got to be seated. And, obviously, those are big states, hugely important in a general election, and lots of eager Democrats there. What will your campaign pledge to do to make sure those delegates are seated?
AXELROD: We all want Michigan and Florida to be represented. Obviously, they were -- we want it done in a way that is fair and within the rules of the party. But it's going to get done, Campbell. I don't think there's any doubt about it. BROWN: And, David, the exit polls last night did show some scary numbers for your campaign come fall, that almost half of Hillary Clinton's voters said that they won't vote for Barack Obama if he's the nominee.
How do you bring those voters back to the Democratic Party, if you are able to lock this up?
AXELROD: I think the exit polls showed some raw sentiments both ways.
But I'm really confident that the Democratic Party is going to be unified in November. There is so much at stake here. And there's such a broad recognition that we need change.
One of the exciting things that has happened is, we have had record turnouts wherever we go. We have registered millions of new voters who have participated in these primaries. You saw it again yesterday.
I think that is part of what Senator Obama has brought to this. I don't think people want a third Bush term. And we as Democrats are unified in our conviction that we're going to try and change that come November. So, I know that there are raw feelings now. That's a natural thing.
BROWN: Right.
AXELROD: We have had a very long, hard competition. But I think we're going to come together as a party.
BROWN: But let me go back to just the next few weeks, because it looks like that Obama may lose in West Virginia and Kentucky.
How do you make the case that this is really over when if you look at the polls, you have still got a very tough road ahead in this primary race?
AXELROD: Well, there are six contests left. My guest is that we will probably end up roughly splitting the remaining 217 delegates, which isn't a large number. There are actually more superdelegates uncommitted right now than there are remaining pledged delegates.
And we feel, by May 20, that we will have secured an absolute majority of the pledged delegates. There's never been a nominee of the party who hasn't won a majority of the pledged, or elected, delegates.
So, I think we're in a very strong position here, Campbell. I'm not worried about the next few. We will have some good days and we will have some bad days. But I think the goal is in sight, and we're going to reach it.
BROWN: All right, David Axelrod for us tonight -- David, thanks.
AXELROD: OK. Great to be with you. (END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: So, Barack Obama is back on a roll, but perhaps the most powerful Democrat in Congress says, let the race continues.
We're going to hear that next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCGOVERN: I think Senator Obama would make a splendid nominee. I think he'd be a great president if he's elected, and that's what I want to see happen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: A vote of confidence from former Clinton supporter and presidential candidate George McGovern. As you heard, he endorsed Senator Obama today. Right now, Obama looks unstoppable and Senator Clinton looks like she needs an exit strategy. But there are six more contests to go.
And with me tonight to look ahead, Katrina vanden Heuvel, editor of "The Nation," Michael Crowley, senior editor of "The New Republic," Tara Wall, deputy editorial page editor for "The Washington Times" and a former director of outreach for the Republican National Committee.
So, let me start with you guys, Katrina and Michael, here in the studio with me. Today we're hearing this sort of drip, drip, drip of Clinton supporters suggesting it's time to call it a day. We heard McGovern, Dianne Feinstein this afternoon. Former Senator Bob Kerrey told "The New York Observer" that he thinks Clinton will withdraw rather before the primaries end if things stay the way they are now.
How long can she realistically hang on, Katrina?
KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL, EDITOR, "THE NATION": Well, first of all, just -- what I think, I never say never. So it's not over before it's over. But I do think what we saw last night were voters, who with all due respect...
BROWN: They're sick of it.
VANDEN HEUVEL: Well, no, they were not fazed by the kind of 36/7 drip, drip, drip of mass media, cable mass media distractions, divisions, pins and panders. And I think the trust people have in a candidate who is willing to speak the truth and not pander to them was evident in the results last night and I think that's important going forward.
So the decency of the American people. I think, you know, Hillary Clinton has every right to stay in this race and run the sweep of primaries. But I think how she closes and I don't think she'll make it, how she closes it and if you subvert the legitimacy of this process, it's going to be very dangerous heading into November. MICHAEL CROWLEY, SR. EDITOR, "THE NEW REPUBLIC": Sure. I mean, you know, I think if you're Hillary Clinton, you have to look in the mirror and say am I past the point of diminishing returns? There was a time when I had a small but, you know, maybe a significant chance of still getting the nomination a few weeks ago, so I'll risk my reputation.
I'll risk my future opportunities for a Senate leadership position for my husband's foundation to continue to have people think very well. I think really now, she has to ask herself, have I turned a corner? If I carry on with this campaign, even if she goes soft on Obama and doesn't attack him, prevents him from really focusing on John McCain. Are people going to really start to hold it against her, even people who are willing to give the Clintons a little bit of leeway?
BROWN: Right.
CROWLEY: And so, I think that's what she's got to be asking herself. And I think the question might have a hard answer for her.
BROWN: Tara, the flip side of this is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that both candidates earned bragging rights last night. She says keep it going. Let's listen real quick.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D), HOUSE SPEAKER: I think that the race is alive and well and will continue. I believe that the race must continue. The people should all have the opportunity to speak as long as two candidates wish to compete in those primaries and caucuses.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: You know, Speaker Pelosi hasn't always said things that are hopeful to Senator Clinton, but that's got to be encouraging, right?
TARA WALL, "THE WASHINGTON TIMES": This is ridiculous, quite frankly. I mean, look, Clinton and the Democrats are going to, you know, they're spinning it the best they can. They're trying to put on their best game face. I mean, kudos for that but quite frankly, last night's result did little to take Obama off his game and did more to put the nail in her coffin. And quite frankly, he's got to be a little ticked off.
I mean, of course, he's not going to admit that but he's got to be. The numbers are in his favor. She said she wants more time with the delegates. Time is not on her side. The money is not on her side. The votes are not on her side. The delegates are not on her side.
It's time to pack it up. Go home. Call an end to it. I mean, this is -- you know, we have got to -- they have got to essentially...
BROWN: Right. WALL: You know, come together, as you know a party in order to salvage the party and make a decision here. You know --
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Right. Hold on, Tara. Let me let Katrina jump in. Go ahead.
VANDEN HEUVEL: It gets fundamentally antidemocratic to say that Hillary Clinton doesn't have a right to continue through the end of these primaries. Voters have a right to cast their votes in America. What I think is undemocratic and dangerous is if they play a game on May 31 with the rules committee of the DNC and try to bully the DNC into something that looks illegitimate. You will not unify a party that does need to be unified.
WALL: But first of all --
VANDEN HEUVEL: You will alienate African-Americans, and you might alienate young people who have another tradition of voting who could realign the Democratic Party based on surveys we're looking at.
WALL: Well, the suggestion to keep Michigan and Florida in play in fact is bullying. That's bullying the DNC. Michigan and Florida made their decisions based upon what the DNC and in spite of what the DNC told them. They went against everything the DNC has asked of them and told them, and went ahead and moved up their primaries anyway, first and foremost.
Secondly, you know, you still have Republicans voting for Huckabee and Mitt Romney. So voters can still cast their votes for who they like to vote for, quite frankly.
BROWN: Right.
OK. Hold it right there for a moment, guys. We got to take a quick break. When we come back, some surprises from our exit polls we want to talk about.
And then, a real stunner, a governor goes to court to kick his wife out of the governor's mansion. We'll be back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Exit polls reveal Obama really raised his game several notches among some key voter groups. And I've got three of the best political minds in the country with me now to look over the numbers. Katrina vanden Heuvel, Michael Crowley and Tara Wall all joining us.
And let me start again with you, guys, in the studio. Big boost compared to Pennsylvania. He did much better with Catholic voters than he did in Pennsylvania. Also with white working-class voters that we have talked about so endlessly. Michael, pretty significant that he was able to make some gains.
CROWLEY: Yes, sure. And, you know, that is the big question that's still outstanding for him. If he was not able to make some gains, that would potentially been the big story coming away is that he's not showing any emotions.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: We would be having a different discussion.
CROWLEY: And he would still be having this debate. He also did well with college educated voters. I think those maybe who responded to his criticism of the gas tax gimmick courtesy of Hillary Clinton. They like the fact that he was being honest about that policy issue.
BROWN: What struck you out of the exit polls?
VANDEN HEUVEL: Well, I think that he did better than -- he did better with the white working class. Better than in Pennsylvania and this was after the Reverend Wright, 367 endless media loops. But I also think what struck me is, Campbell, we need to have a conversation about the working-class in this country, not just the white working class.
He's winning African-American votes. Talk about working class. And I think he has a message that he needs to sharpen going forward if the debate in this campaign can be elevated because that will be the sharp contrast with John McCain in the fall.
BROWN: Tara?
WALL: Yes, he does have some problems still with getting away from that elitism image if you will, and I think that's what showing in those numbers. He also did pretty well among regular churchgoers but also around here. I'm saying polling numbers. You'll see that in North Carolina and Indiana when asked, the majority felt that the most electable or the most likely to win in November would be Obama, as well as they said that he would be the best commander in chief in both of those states.
Now, Hillary Clinton though in Indiana, they said that she would be the most electable, but that still, that Obama would be the best commander in chief. So her electability argument really is out the door. And quite frankly, that electability argument that she makes is called for Obama is inexperienced.
BROWN: All right, guys, we got to end it there. Katrina, Tara, Michael, thanks to everybody. Appreciate it, guys.
A quick check on the political ticker right now. Nevada is the quickie, quiet divorce capital, as you know. Well now, Republican Governor Jim Gibbons is in the middle of a very public, very messy split. He filed for divorce last week from his wife of 22 years and moved out of the governor's mansion in Carson City. He's gone to court to get the first lady evicted from the mansion so that he can move back in.
The governor continues to conduct official state business at the mansion, but then makes a 30-mile trip back to his old home in Reno. For more stories like this because you know you want them, check out the political ticker on CNN.com/politicalticker.
Just ahead the stagecraft of a victory speech. Here's Clinton and Obama had a celebration last night. Both of them did. And a message for voters if you know what to look for.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Well, Larry King is also doing what's next for the campaign. John King though is in for Larry King at the top of the hour.
Hey there, John.
JOHN KING, CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: How are you, Campbell?
Sitting in for the master tonight here. We're going to continue this fascinating conversation about the state of the Democratic race. Is there a way for Hillary Clinton to have a comeback?
We'll have prominent Clinton supporters, prominent Obama supporters. We'll have George McGovern, the former Democratic nominee, who withdrew his endorsement of Senator Clinton today and said it's time for the party to get behind Barack Obama.
And Campbell, who is being courted the most right now? Undeclared superdelegates. Three of them will join us right here. "LARRY KING LIVE" at the top of the hour, Campbell.
BROWN: All right. We'll be watching.
John King, thanks.
Last night's results said a lot about the Democratic race, but the campaigns themselves took advantage of last night's victory celebrations to send some pretty strong messages of their own. From the images on the stage to the words and the speeches, it was nothing less than pure stagecraft.
And Erica Hill is here with us now to show us what was going on behind the scenes -- Erica.
ERICA HILL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Campbell, the most important thing is where your scene is actually going to take place. So you want to hold your rally after your primary in a spot where you know that hopefully you will have won. So that is why you saw Barack Obama, of course, in Raleigh, North Carolina, and Senator Hillary Clinton within Indianapolis.
So they've got that down, right? So once you got your location ready to go, then you need to figure out when you're going to come out, because timing is really important here.
Now, Barack Obama was actually pretty lucky in that. His race was called fairly early, in fact, not long after the polls closed about 7:30.
BROWN: Right.
HILL: So he was able to speak at the stage here -- you see this at 9:10, which is also great when it comes to TV news because that's plenty of time to get on any 11:00 newscast.
BROWN: Perfect.
HILL: So he had that advantage there. But for Hillary Clinton, things weren't quite as easy. She actually got ready, got to the rally we're told at 9:30. She was there ready to go. But as we know, Indiana was not called right away.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: A lot closer than everyone thought.
HILL: It was a late night for everybody. So, in fact, it wasn't until 10:40 that she even took the stage but the race, of course, wouldn't be called until much later. Still, a little bit of time to get in on the 11:00 newscast but they're scrambling at that point.
BROWN: All right. And Erica, we know the candidates are obviously center stage here.
HILL: Right.
BROWN: But it also is hugely important like who you put around them, right?
HILL: Not just anybody is going to go behind the candidate, behind them at the podium here. So, if we look at Barack Obama, you're going see off here to the side, you'll see a lot of white women. Now, this traditionally is a demographic that Hillary Clinton has done very well with.
BROWN: Yes.
HILL: That perhaps on the part of the Obama camp, they're saying here, hey, look, you know what, I've got white women in my corner too. Come on over. So that's a little bit of placement there that you're seeing.
When we look at who is behind Hillary Clinton, you're going to see a little bit more mixed crowd. I think we may have more of a wide shot that makes it really draw some people. And then, of course, there's this little guy who I have to say when I was watching last night at home, he stole the show for me.
It was past his bedtime, but he was having a grand time. Very cute.
BROWN: He was yelping, I think a few times, too.
HILL: He was. I heard a few.
BROWN: Great applause. HILL: A lot of excitement there. And, of course, behind her, her two most important supporters, Bill and Chelsea Clinton.
And this picture we thought was very sweet. I'm not quite sure what they may be thinking there.
BROWN: I know.
HILL: It's a lovely family moment. I don't know if they're thinking, we made it through. We may actually make to the White House.
BROWN: Oh, maybe this is over for all of us and we can go home.
HILL: There could be that, too. You never know. And, of course, once you get through all of this, you know, what time to go on stage? Who's going to be behind me? Then there's the actual speech, which is oftentimes really important. So I think we have a little bit of each speech here.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: We can't afford to give John McCain the chance to serve out George Bush's third term. We need change in America.
CLINTON: Tonight, once again, I need your help to continue our journey. I hope you will go to HillaryClinton.com and support our campaign.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HILL: There you go. Both candidates Barack Obama obviously looking to the general election. Hillary Clinton, we've heard a lot about money surrounding her campaign today, talking about fund- raising. Interesting, too, Campbell, there's this guy in the background here behind her with his boxing gloves. So clearly, he is ready to continue the fight.
BROWN: He is the fighter.
HILL: There you go.
BROWN: Good stuff. Good stuff as always. Erica Hill, good to have you.
So Hillary Clinton has defended continuing her campaign by pointing to the popular vote, but does she still have an argument and what should the immediate battle plan be for Clinton and Barack Obama after yesterday's results? That's coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Hillary Clinton has been digging into her very deep pockets throughout this battle. In last night's victory speech in Indiana, she appealed to supporters to pony up, too. So while the dollar math isn't working too well for her, she claims the popular vote may still go her way. Does that add up?
I have got Joe Johns doing the math for us tonight.
JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, after last night, the fuzzy math around the popular vote is a whole lot clearer. Up until Indiana and North Carolina, Hillary Clinton had been arguing she was in fact the popular vote leader. By her calculation, she was up by 90,000 votes. It was a shaky argument to begin with. But last night, it fell apart.
Obama won North Carolina by a huge margin, 237,000 votes. Clinton took Indiana but by a far smaller margin, 23,000 votes, which leaves Obama with a net gain of about 214,000 votes. And so, even if you accept her original claim to be ahead, she still trails Obama 124,000 votes.
But here's the problem. Clinton's numbers include Florida and Michigan which she won, but which are being ignored by the National Party. Remember in Michigan, Obama wasn't even on the ballot. So if you take those states out, Obama's lead jumps to about 826,000 votes.
There are other ways to slice and dice it, but most have Obama up by several 100,000 votes. And Campbell, with only about 2.5 million votes still to be won, her popular vote argument just isn't adding up.
BROWN: Joe Johns for us. Joe, thanks.
With Hillary Clinton pledging to fight to the finish, what does she and Barack Obama need to do next? I've got strategists from both sides of the fence in the ELECTION CENTER "War Room" tonight.
First, the Republican's Ed Rollins, veteran of the Reagan White House and chairman of Mike Huckabee's recent presidential campaign with me, and CNN contributor Leslie Sanchez as well. And our Democrat, Bob Shrum.
Bob Shrum, you're such a big Democrat. You are equal to two Republicans, right? He served as adviser for John Kerry and Al Gore in the presidential runs, and he has not endorsed, we should mention, nor contributed to any candidate for the presidential campaign.
Bob, I'm going to start with you. We just heard from Joe Johns that Clinton's popular vote argument doesn't really add up. It looks like she won't be able to pull ahead in terms of the numbers game. Her margin in Indiana was very tight. What argument does she have left?
You're her go-to guy. How does she prove that her campaign is not dead in the water now?
BOB SHRUM, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, if I were her go-to guy I would say, look, if you want to play this string out for a while, we have to find a point where you can gracefully get out of the race, probably at the end of the primaries. I don't think -- I think she has a clear road to the convention. I don't think she has a road to the nomination. There is no metric that's left. The popular vote, pledged delegates, number of states won -- there's no metric that's left by which she can win this nomination. And you know, to make a big thing out of West Virginia next week, of course, the people there ought to be able to vote. But it's like being three touchdowns behind in the Super Bowl and saying gee, I'm going to kick a field goal.
BROWN: Fair point.
Ed, if you're Obama's guy at this stage of the game, you know, there's been this big shift in momentum. Is there anything you can do to try to force her hand and say --
ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I would be a gracious winner. Sooner or later, they all have to come back together. I would do everything I could to try and bring the Michigan and Republican (ph) delegations in two key states long term. And even if they're in, he's still going to win and he needs her voters desperately.
So my sense is, I would do everything I could at this point in time to let her supporters know that when she drops out, with all due respect to her, when she drops out, that they're welcome in the camp and let's go fight the game.
BROWN: And Leslie, the money is a huge issue for her. And we heard it reported tonight, $11 million she has now spent of her own money. What could you possibly say to donors at this stage of the game that's going to get them to write checks?
LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: That there's still a possibility that something else can happen. It's almost like she's laying the groundwork for something else to happen like the October surprise we hear about.
BROWN: You mean more bad news for Barack Obama?
SANCHEZ: Probably.
BROWN: Something -- skeleton in the closet that we don't know about yet.
SANCHEZ: Well, she's building on the unknown, and I think she's built that case rather successfully. I think there's a lot more people who are giving him a second look. You can't deny that.
But it's interesting, I do agree with Ed, in the sense that Barack Obama has an opportunity to look more presidential. It's something you don't see very often. I mean, whenever he loses, he definitely looks like he's upset, and the Clintons have been able to get under his skin. But there's an opportunity to start moving away in that direction. And I think a lot of the superdelegates are looking for that type of leadership to fundamentally feel it's OK.
BROWN: Right.
I'm going to talk more about the superdelegates in a second. But Bob, I want to get your take also on what Ed mentioned. Florida and Michigan. Clinton has been clinging to those states saying those voters can't be disenfranchised.
Obama treading more gingerly there. At this stage of the game, the status quo seems to be working for him but ultimately, he can't afford to alienate these people. How do you handle this?
SHRUM: There'll be a compromise on Florida and Michigan as David Axelrod said earlier on this program. I have no doubt of that. But the Michigan delegation is not going to be seated the way that Howard Wolfson talked about at the conference call today, which is a reflection of a primary that was kind of a Soviet-style election where Barack Obama's name was not on the ballot.
So they're going to come up with something that's going to get Michigan representation, Florida representation, and that's absolutely right. In the end, it's not going to change the result.
Look, Ed set a model with Mike Huckabee, of how to keep on after it looks like you're not going to win the nomination. And I think Hillary Clinton if she wants to keep going, can go out there make a positive case for herself. Maybe even go after John McCain some. But I think the one thing that will get her in great trouble is if she turns this into a confrontation with Obama.
BROWN: All --
SHRUM: I think that's over.
BROWN: All right. The Mike Huckabee strategy. OK, hang on, guys.
As the primaries wind down, is a former president going to end up playing wrangler for the superdelegates? The "War Room" will tell us when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: And we are back with our panel for one final thought from everybody. And let me start with you, Bob. What do you say to the superdelegates right now for Hillary Clinton as a last-ditch effort?
SHRUM: Well, she's going to try to make the argument that somehow rather she's a stronger general election candidate. The evidence doesn't necessarily support that. In fact, there's evidence that goes in both directions.
I don't think it's an argument that will work. The superdelegates are not going to overturn the will of the voters and the lead in the pledged delegates.
BROWN: So, what do you say, though, if you're Barack Obama to turn this from a trickle of superdelegates into a flood?
ROLLINS: Well, it's going come. I think there are emotional arguments and intellect arguments that you can make. She can make an intellectual argument she's a better candidate. Emotionally, he now heads this party.
BROWN: And they think of his --
SANCHEZ: You know, very, very true. But I do go with Hillary Clinton in a sense that Barack Obama said he transcended race, gender, geography, socio-economic status. That proved not to be the case in Indiana and North Carolina, which is a different story. So some of that is unraveling and I think that's what superdelegates are challenged by.
BROWN: All right, guys, we got to end it there. Leslie Sanchez, Ed Rollins and Bob Shrum for us from D.C. tonight. Thanks, guys. Really appreciate it.
That is it for me here in the ELECTION CENTER. Have a great night, everybody.
"LARRY KING LIVE" with John King filling in starts right now.
