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American Morning
Full Speed Ahead for Clinton: Promises to Fight; The Delegate Math: Who Has the Lead?; What If Convention is Contested; Republicans Size Up Competition
Aired May 07, 2008 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: The updated CNN delegate tally has got Barack Obama now with 1,836 pledged delegates. Hillary Clinton with 1,681. That's a spread of 155 delegates. In his speech last night in Raleigh, Obama talked about overcoming personal attacks and getting back the momentum.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Hope can find its way back from the darkest of corners, and when we are told that we cannot bring about the change that we seek, we answer with one voice, yes, we can.
So North Carolina and America, don't ever forget that this election is not about me or any candidate. Don't ever forget that this campaign is about you.
It's about your hopes. It's about your dreams. It's about your struggles. It's about your aspirations. It's about securing your portion of the American dream.
Don't ever forget that we have a choice in this country. That we can choose not to be divided, that we can choose not to be afraid, that we can still choose this moment to finally come together and solve the problems we've talked about all those other years in all those other elections. This time can be different than all the rest. This time we can face down those who say our road is too long, that our climb is too steep, that we can no longer achieve the change that we seek.
This is our time to answer the call that so many generations of Americans have answered before by insisting that by hard work and by sacrifice, the American dream will endure. Thank you. Thank you, North Carolina. May God --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: As far as the Hoosier State goes, it took all night to count the votes there. They just finished counting the last absentee ballots an hour ago. Senator Clinton watched her double-digit lead in Indiana shrink to just two points before CNN called it after 1:00 in the morning. But let's not forget though, Barack Obama had initially been expected to win Indiana.
Lake County, right outside of Obama's hometown of Chicago, was what caused the hold up and sparked his comeback as well. A large number of absentee ballots and a record turnout delayed the tallies there. Obama also won urban areas like Indianapolis. Rural areas were Hillary Clinton's strength. Now, before they tallied all the votes, Senator Clinton was confident about the road ahead.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can once again be the can-do nation, a nation that defies the odds and greets the future with optimism and hope. There isn't anything America can't do once we make up our minds to start acting like Americans again, and that is exactly what we intend to do. Thank you and God bless you, and God bless America!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Well, some big names still to come this morning with their take on the results. Former candidate and current McCain supporter Mitt Romney joins us. That's coming up at 7:25 Eastern, and Clinton supporter James Carville will join us at 7:55 Eastern, with Obama supporter Joe Andrew, who you remember was a Hillary Clinton supporter and then switched.
The best political team on television is covering all the angles. We've got John King at the magic wall for us this morning. Bill Schneider looking at the exit polls. Suzanne Malveaux is on the trail for us in Indianapolis today. But right now, let's go over to Alina.
ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: All right. And we want to begin with CNN's chief national correspondent John King at his famous magic wall.
So let's start with North Carolina, John. Were you surprised by the big margins there? What happened?
JOHN KING, CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Consistent with the big margins Barack Obama has whipped up across the south. How did he do it in North Carolina? Look at this map right here.
Look at all the major populations that are Charlotte, Winston Salem, Greensboro, Raleigh, Fayetteville. In every one of these major population, Senator Barack Obama not only won, but he won big.
Let's look at Wayne County, two-thirds of the vote for Barack Obama. Move over here to Charlotte area, even a higher number, 70 percent of the vote for Barack Obama. So a very impressive coalition, especially in the urban areas and the large suburban areas. Barack Obama winning huge among African-Americans and then winning a good margin among the white vote, especially the upscale, higher educated Democratic voters who we have seen in other states.
So this is just a sweeping victory, a big win for Barack Obama again, by posting huge margins where the people are in the cities.
CHO: And 91 percent of the black vote and young voters, too. Let's turn to Indiana now. As you pointed out earlier, he won in Indianapolis. He won in Lake County. You predicted that might happen. Wasn't enough to overcome Clinton's lead in the other areas.
KING: Look at the swathe of this state. It is a large state. It's a largely rural state. Senator Clinton winning in all of these rural counties out here. Not a lot of people in most of these places.
You just pull out one county. Randomly, Greene County, very small, but she's winning two-thirds of the vote. Add that up when there's so many rural counties, so she posted a pretty big margin.
How did Barack Obama close it at the end? Well, he won in college towns like we've seen before. Federal (ph) County, Indiana University in Bloomington, Barack Obama wins.
South Bend, a bit of a surprise here in the margin, Catholic voters but also a college campus, the University of Notre Dame, Barack Obama wins a little bit more here, but the keys to Obama making this so close here in Marion County, you were just talking to the radio hosts, Indianapolis, an African-American population there, 14 percent of the state population. Barack Obama wins two-thirds of the votes there and all the drama, Alina, was up here along the lake, near Chicago. Lake County coming in very late.
CHO: Real problem.
KING: Coming in very late and coming in for Barack Obama but not by a big enough margin. Barack Obama won big among the African- Americans up in this part of the county, but Senator Clinton down here in the more rural areas posted similar numbers to what she was doing in the surrounding counties.
So Barack Obama's margin was big in Lake County but not big enough to overcome the Clinton lead in the state. He cut it close, down about 22,000 votes. Senator Clinton gets the win, but the delegates will be roughly split.
CHO: All right. 7:00 on the morning after but it's not too early to look ahead, so what's next?
KING: What is next is a map that shows you how difficult and daunting the delegate math is for Senator Hillary Clinton. Here is where we start the day right here.
We've allocated Indiana. We've allocated North Carolina. A few delegates still to slice out there based on the congressional districts, but let us for the sake of argument first, starting at the finish line. Clinton is back here. Obama is out here. Here's the finish line out here.
Let's for the sake of argument just say hypothetically Hillary Clinton wins big the rest of the way out. There's no reason to believe she would, but I'm going to tap this twice. That means she wins 65-35. She hasn't post in margins like that anywhere, but let's just show how tough the math is.
Even if she does that well in West Virginia, in Kentucky, down here in Puerto Rico, then move out here into the plains in the west where Barack Obama has been winning. But let's for this hypothetical give all of those states 65-35 to Senator Clinton. Look what happens. Look what happens.
She closes the gap somewhat. We're over the red, but Barack Obama would still win even if Senator Clinton won 65-35 in all the remaining states. So what does that mean?
This is where we start the day here. I'll get rid of those lines so people don't get confused. This is where we start the day. If she won 65-35 the rest of the way out, she would almost catch up but she would still be about 100 pledged delegates behind. Then you have the superdelegates.
CHO: Right.
KING: They will decide the nominating contest. Has Senator Clinton changed the psychology to make them all come her way? She would need well, in excess of 60 percent of them.
CHO: Wow.
KING: If they just roughly split those delegates, let's do that and let's do that, give a few more up here and bring these remaining ones down here. Guess what?
About 50 percent of these delegates, that's all Barack Obama needs to get over the finish line. It would be about 50 percent of the superdelegates, and that is assuming Senator Clinton romps her way through the finish. If they split the delegates 50/50 from here on out, the pledged delegates and the superdelegates, Barack Obama is your nominee.
CHO: You know, a lot of talk about the math isn't there. The math isn't there for Hillary Clinton. When you see it like this, this is how it plays out. You know, it's really graphically noticeable how close Obama is to the finish line when you put it out like that, and especially giving Hillary Clinton as many delegates as you did.
KING: If all Barack Obama has to do from here on out is split 50/50, he has done better than that in contests to date. And he had a big win in North Carolina last night that blocked Senator Clinton from getting the psychological game changing argument she very much needed.
So there's no reason to believe based on everything we know today that Barack Obama can't get 50 percent. There's still time. There's more elections to come, but the bar now for Senator Clinton, the mathematical bar and the psychological bar is higher.
CHO: Is high.
All right. John King at the magic wall. We look forward to talking to you later -- John.
ROBERTS: Eight minutes after the hour. No rest for the weary. The campaigns roll on to where the next race now just six days away. West Virginia's primary is coming up next Tuesday and then just five races left after that with the final contests on the 3rd of June.
Hillary Clinton says her campaign is going full speed ahead, but can she overtake Barack Obama and win the Democratic nomination? Our political panel weighs in on that.
And what about the other side? Who would John McCain like to run against? His former rival and now supporter, Mitt Romney, joins us live, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The man I met in Pennsylvania who lost his job but can't even afford the gas to drive around and look for a new one. He can't afford four more years of an energy policy written by the oil companies and for the oil companies. A policy that's not only keeping gas at record prices but funding both sides of the war on terror and destroying our planet.
He doesn't need four more years of Washington policies that sound good but don't solve the problem. He needs us to take a permanent holiday from our addiction from oil by making the automakers raise their fuel standards. Corporations pay for the pollution, and oil companies invest their record profits in a clean energy future. That's the change we need. That's why I'm running for president of the United States of America.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Barack Obama last night in Raleigh talking about issues important to North Carolina and all Americans. He won North Carolina by 14 percentage points. Hillary Clinton won Indiana by two. She's now on her way to the next race in West Virginia, but just how close are we to the end of this whole thing?
Let's bring in our political panel. Julian Epstein is a Democratic strategist. He supports Hillary Clinton. Melissa Harris- Lacewell is a contributor to the TheRoot.com. She supports Barack Obama. Leslie Sanchez is a Republican strategist, and John Dickerson is a chief political correspondent for Slate.com and a CNN political analyst.
John, let's start with you. This whole thing now is for the superdelegates. Up until now, 278 of them have been keeping their powder fairly dry. What do you expect is going to happen now?
JOHN DICKERSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, the trickle -- they have been keeping their powder dry with the ones who fell just before these last two primaries have been going steadily to Barack Obama. I expect that to continue, perhaps to go even faster towards Obama.
Hillary Clinton needed an argument, a really strong argument to come out of these two victories. She didn't really get it. She's got a few talking points. But to reverse the trend of things, to change the discussion that's going on, she needed some hard, big facts, and she didn't get those.
ROBERTS: Right.
DICKERSON: Barack Obama did get them. He's got the math. We've been talking about it, and so the train is probably still going to go in his direction just that.
ROBERTS: Julian, what do you say about that? The train is going to be toward Barack Obama.
JULIAN EPSTEIN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I don't think superdelegates are going to go anywhere real quick. I think again, you're talking about 30 million votes here.
ROBERTS: What are they waiting for?
EPSTEIN: You're talking about -- well, I think they want to see what happens with the remaining races, and I think there are also looking at poll numbers. You're looking at 30 million votes. You're looking at a couple 100,000 votes separating them. That's less than one percent.
She is winning all the big states -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana. There's no question about that. She's ahead in all the polls. When she matches up against McCain versus Barack Obama matching up against McCain, she wins in almost all the polls. She's winning with independents, winning with voters under 30.
I think she will have a big win in West Virginia next week, and I think the fact that Barack Obama does not want to have a vote in Michigan and Florida, does not want to revote that, tells you one thing.
ROBERTS: I think we need to get past that.
EPSTEIN: They're worried about the results.
ROBERTS: I think we need to get past that.
EPSTEIN: They're worried about the results.
ROBERTS: That's done. That's not coming back.
EPSTEIN: No, it's not.
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: The rules, the rules, the rules, the rules -- they're not going to have a revote. The rules committee -- the rules committee is meeting at the end of May. They're going to try to figure something out.
But to this point about the remaining contests left. We take a look at the polls currently, Melissa, and they are a snapshot of a moving picture. Everybody agrees on that. It looks like they're going to split the remaining contests. So, how can superdelegates look at what happens over the next -- a little less than a month and figure out which way to go?
MELISSA HARRIS-LACEWELL, CONTRIBUTOR, THEROOT.COM: Here's the deal. Democratic primary voters in one of the most exciting primaries of our lifetime have chosen their nominee. That's Barack Obama. Now, what are the superdelegates waiting for?
Now, this is a nice story that they're waiting to pick the right person, but I think what they're recognizing is that the political road is littered with the bodies of those who underestimated the tenacity of the Clintons, and they don't want to be political road kill. So they're waiting to make sure that there is no big bomb that's coming. They want to be sure that just in case she takes the nomination that they hedge their bets and stayed on the right side, but the voters have chosen a nominee.
Now is the time for Democratic Party leadership to show a spine, demonstrate that we do have a party, give a gracious exit to this terrific candidate, Hillary Clinton, allow her to move out of the nominating process and into a supporting role.
ROBERTS: You don't expect, Leslie, that she's going anywhere, do you?
LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Absolutely not. And I think when these party bosses and fat cats all get in their smoke- filled rooms and decide who they want to be their nominee -- let's be real. Keep it real.
ROBERTS: They've gone from road kill to fat cats.
SANCHEZ: They are waiting to see. I agree with -- I agree with this observation. They're waiting to see if that other shoe is going to drop. Is he going to be somebody who's like Jimmy Carter who is going to have all these national security gaffes like he did, somebody you really didn't know and got a free pass by the media? Or is he going to be extreme, out of touch, elitist, liberal like Michael Dukakis? That's the question a lot of people especially --
(CROSSTALK)
EPSTEIN: Let me tell you why North Carolina -- why Michigan and Florida still matter. They matter because of the psychology. You can argue all you want about the rules and credentials and all that. But the fact of the matter is that we would have had a vote in Michigan, we would have had a vote in Florida unless Barack Obama's campaign had tried to veto it.
The fact that they are vetoing, the fact that they are vetoing a revote plays into the psychology. It sends the message that they think they will lose in those states the way the campaign is losing --
ROBERTS: I think it needs to be pointed out again, that fight is over. Now, it's just --
(CROSSTALK)
EPSTEIN: I don't think --
ROBERTS: It's just now a battle for what you do.
HARRIS-LACEWELL: Your candidate admitted that Michigan -- he wasn't even on the ballot.
ROBERTS: You know what we're going to do? We're going to let them continue to discuss amongst themselves, and we'll come back to them a little bit later on. Everybody stay where you are because we're going to check with you coming up later on this hour. Right now, it's back to Alina.
CHO: Always exciting, and great to see at 7:15 in the morning on the East Coast.
All right. The Republicans are watching the Democratic race, if you heard from Leslie Sanchez. Who are they rooting for? We're going to ask John McCain supporter and former candidate Mitt Romney.
Six states to go. Superdelegates making up their minds. What happens if the Democratic fight goes all the way to the National Convention? That's late August. We're going to have a what-if look ahead, coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Senator Hillary Clinton pulling out a must-win in Indiana. It was a late night nail biter as Clinton saw her lead shrink to 22,000 votes, but it was enough. She got 51 percent of the vote to Obama's 49 percent.
But a much different story in North Carolina. Obama won an overwhelmingly 56 percent of the votes compared to Clinton's 42 percent.
CHO: All right. If neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton can clinch the Democratic nomination in the primaries, it could all come down to the Democratic National Convention in Denver. CNN special correspondent Frank Sesno takes a look at how that might play out.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you, North Carolina.
FRANK SESNO, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): What a mess it would be.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you, Indiana? Thank you!
SESNO: Not a brokered convention, but a contested convention. Think Carter/Kennedy in 1980 when young Teddy took on incumbent Jimmy. The Kennedy forces challenged the rules, picked dozens of fights trying to sway the delegates. Would this year's convention be as divisive and unpredictable? TAD DEVINE, 1980 CARTER CAMPAIGN: The highest authority in the Democratic Party is the National Convention meeting en masse. Now, when that convention gets together under one roof, that convention can do what it wants.
SESNO: From the credentials committee that approves delegations to the rules and platform committees, they could all be battlegrounds.
GOV. BILL RICHARDSON (D), NEW MEXICO: Delegates, alternates, honored guests.
SESNO: On day one in Denver, the very first fight could be whether to ratify or reject the contested Michigan and Florida delegations. The outcome could tip the balance. The fights could go on in the platform committee, for example, to flex muscle and force debate onto the convention floor. Those primetime TV speeches could get pushed aside by angry debates over procedure and politics.
DEVINE: Do you try to go out and demonstrate that you control the floor of the convention? That those delegates on that convention floor will support you?
SESNO: It will be hardball for any wavering superdelegates for sure, but even the pledged delegates are by party rule bound only by good conscience. So they could flip or abstain if they decide to say, that Obama couldn't win or that Clinton was a danger to party unity.
Emotional issues of race, gender, party disunity, a made for TV spectacular. If all else fails, someone else could even offer to run. Now, who might that be?
SESNO (on camera): Whatever happens in Denver, experience convention hands say the jockeying and the bad blood could begin well before convention time. Throughout the summer, candidate forces will be lobbying and cajoling trying to gain control of those key committees. Frank Sesno, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHO: And the Democratic National Convention is in Denver starting on August 25th. And if that happens and it goes all the way to the convention, we're not just going to have the best political team on TV. We'll have the sleepiest political team on TV, too. So we'll have to wait and see.
ROBERTS: They're going to be carrying Howard Dean out on a stretcher if that happens sometime.
Even if she won every remaining pledged delegate, Hillary Clinton cannot clinch the nomination. She would still be 127 short. It's going to come down to superdelegates by any stretch here.
So we're asking for your thoughts this morning. Do you believe that there is any way Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic nomination? Right now, 23 percent of you say yes. Seventy-seven percent say no. Cast your vote for us this morning at CNN.com. We'd also like to hear from you via e-mail. Let us know whether you think it's possible for her to win the nomination, and if so, how? E-mail us. Head to our Web site, CNN.com/am and follow the links that say "contact us."
The gas tax holiday did not hand Hillary Clinton the big win that she needed. We'll see if that changes John McCain's game plan. We're talking to Mitt Romney just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Because you stood up to the cynics and the doubters and the naysayers when we were up and when we were down, because you still believe that this is our moment and our time to change America, tonight we stand less than 200 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination for president of the United States.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This has always been your campaign, and this is your victory because your support has meant the difference between winning and losing. And we can only keep winning if we're able to keep competing against an opponent who does outspend us massively.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHO: Well, there you have it. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton making their case to supporters last night. When it was all over, Hillary Clinton took Indiana by two points. It was a razor-thin margin, 51 percent to 49 percent.
No doubt about it in North Carolina though. Barack Obama won it early and won it big, 56 percent to 42 percent. A 14-point margin.
Suzanne Malveaux has some exclusive details about the Clinton campaign's next move, and I think it's safe to say they're not giving up, Suzanne.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: They're really not, Alina. And really it was baffling at times last night, the optimism that they had, but essentially what associates close -- people close to them are saying that Bill and Hillary Clinton believe so strongly, convinced so strongly that she is the stronger person to go up at John McCain.
They cannot fathom giving up at this point. They also say what she has been able to do is kind of rebrand herself from the inevitable front-runner to now the fighter. So there's no chance that this kind of idea of quitting even fits into that scenario. They say this campaign has gone from operating out of a control room to the streets.
It has worked very well for them, so they're going to continue ahead. They even added a last minute stop today in West Virginia. She said she was going to move on. She's going to compete and campaign, so that is something that they decided she needs to do.
She needs to be out there showing the voters, so she's going to be joining Chelsea at one of those events this morning. And also, Alina, I cannot stress enough that this idea about fighting for Florida and Michigan. They are not going to let this thing go until that is resolved. They think that something will take place.
The rules committee obviously meeting at the end of this month. They're going to go through those contests in June, and then they will reassess. But clearly they're on a path of moving forward, and they don't see themselves stopping until they get to that point, Alina.
CHO: Suzanne, you have pointed this out. John King pointed it out as well. Quit is not in the Clinton lexicon. But having said that, Obama supporters, as you well know, are quick to point out that she can't raise money.
How does she make the case then because the supporters will say, Obama supporters, math isn't there. How does she make the case then to raise more money?
MALVEAUX: Well, absolutely. One of the reasons they needed Indiana is because of the money. They were hoping for some sort of financial windfall because what's going to happen here is they believe that she is strong in West Virginia and Kentucky and Puerto Rico, but that she is not going to be competitive up against the dollars that Barack Obama has.
That is why we've got a fund-raiser today. The Clinton camp going to be raising -- trying to raise some cash along with Chelsea before a women's group. They're going to be making this appeal here that Florida and Michigan are somehow going to make a difference when it comes to those numbers and also to the superdelegates here.
Once again, they're going to try to convince them, the remaining ones, that she is the stronger candidate in the general election because she's winning the working class voters, and one person put it this way.
They said, well, Indiana, North Carolina, they may have been important yesterday, but that doesn't make them important in the general election and that they need the other kinds of swing states, Florida, Ohio, the others. Those are the ones that are going to make a difference in going up against John McCain. We'll see if that goes over with the superdelegates.
CHO: Suzanne Malveaux up late and up early. Thank you so much. We'll talk to you later -- John.
MALVEAUX: Thanks, Alina.
ROBERTS: Hardest working woman in television.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are both talking like they're going to be the Democratic nominee. Each one spoke last night about the upcoming general election battle against Republican John McCain. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can't afford to give John McCain the chance to serve out George Bush's third term. We need change in America.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It will not be a change if the Republicans keep the White House. It will be more of the same.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Who would the Republicans rather face in November? Former GOP presidential candidate and former governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney now supports John McCain. He joins me from West Newton, Massachusetts.
Governor, good morning, good to see you again. Hope you're keeping well.
MITT ROMNEY (R), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thanks, John. Terrific.
ROBERTS: So what do you make of what happened last night?
ROMNEY: Well, it's a continuation of the bitter divide in the Democratic Party. We were watching Hillary Clinton assert time and again that Barack Obama is a liberal elitist. On the other hand, you have Barack Obama convincing the American voters that Hillary Clinton is a product of the Washington special interests.
I happen to agree with both of them, by the way, and it's obviously a good thing to get a good chance to see both of these candidates in a far more extensive way than we have to date.
ROBERTS: We hear from some Republicans now that they would rather go up against Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton. That she has now become the stronger contender, particularly in the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Is it true that Republicans, that John McCain would rather go up against Barack Obama?
ROMNEY: Well, I can't speak for the rest of the Republicans, but I can tell you that I think she is a formidable candidate. I think she is flawed, but I think he is more flawed. I think that the real issue among Democrats right now is that, are they going to count Florida and Michigan? And Florida and Michigan along with Ohio are probably the three key states in this general election, and if those states are denied the ability to participate in this process, why, you know, I think that puts -- if it's Barack Obama then, I think it puts Barack Obama in a very weakened position. So, she's doing well in some of those states that make a big difference.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: When you say he's more flawed, that sort of opens the door to what would the Republican line of attack be against him? Can you give us some sort of insight into that? ROMNEY: Well, I can't speak for Senator McCain in that regard, but I can say that as you look at Barack Obama, you see a person who is well-spoken and articulate. He can read a prompter very well and energize a crowd, but he has not accomplished anything during his life in terms of legislation or leading an enterprise or making a business work or a city work or a state work. He really has very little experience, and, you know, the presidency of the United States is not an internship, and I honestly believe that you're going to see America choose somebody who has been tested and proven who has been able to demonstrate time and again that he understands how to make the economy work, he understands how our military works, he understands the needs of the country and the heart and passion of the American people.
ROBERTS: Right. Well, I mean, I'm certain that he would beat back all of those points that you just made there, but it certainly does give us some sort of an idea of where this would go should he become the nominee. I'm sure it would be similar for Hillary Clinton. Let me talk about John McCain for a second if I could. He waded in the territory of the Supreme Court yesterday. Let's listen to what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will look for people in the cast of John Roberts, Samuel Alito, and my friend the late William Rehnquist, jurists of the highest caliber who know their own minds and know the law and know the difference.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Some people say, governor that it's a little bit of tenuous ground that John McCain was walking on when he gets into the Supreme Court because there are conservatives who are still not fully trusting of him as to what he would do in appointing judges to the court.
ROMNEY: Well, I think Senator McCain has always spoken his mind. I don't think anybody questions about whether he is a maverick and a person of strong individual beliefs, and on the matter of the court, he's made it very, very clear that he wants to select jurists who are superb thinkers, who are studied in the constitution and the law, but who will not make the law from the bench. And for those that don't understand what that means, the basic idea was the court was to interpret the law and follow the constitution. What we have seen too many times is the court deciding that it's going to make the law, it's going to legislate and he's saying, no he would do that.
ROBERTS: And do you fully trust John McCain would follow conservative values in appointing jurists to the bench?
ROMNEY: I certainly do. I believe he would make sure that we select jurists who follow the constitution and follow the law and do not legislate from the bench. Does not mean every appointment would be to the liking of everybody in the country, but it would mean they would be solid jurists, tested, proven, capable of following the law.
ROBERTS: Hey, what do you think of this idea of a gas tax holiday that the senator is trying to get through?
ROMNEY: I believe the senator's feeling is that you got a lot of folks in this country who are really, really suffering.
ROBERTS: Sure, what do you thinking about it?
ROMNEY: I'm sorry.
ROBERTS: What do you think about it?
ROMNEY: Well, I think that he's made it very, very clear he wants to help people who are suffering right now --
ROBERTS: But do you think it's a good idea?
ROMNEY: You know, this is something I looked at a long time ago in the state of Massachusetts. It's not something I did there, so I'm not going to describe what I would do, but what I can tell you is what he would do is to help the American people at a time they're facing very large gasoline bills and wants to make sure they see a little lower price at the pump.
ROBERTS: Just a lot of people don't think it's a good idea and I take it because of the way that you approached it in Massachusetts, you don't necessarily think it's a good idea either.
ROMNEY: Well, I think it's a good idea to help people and right now Senator McCain wants to help people see lower gasoline bills. Of course, we all recognize that if we're going to become independent of our dependence on foreign oil, it's going to take a long-term strategy to get us off of foreign oil. That's something which Republicans have been fighting for years, and Democrats, frankly, often times out of a concern about environmentalism, which I care very deeply about, but they have opposed nuclear power, they have opposed building new power plants, opposed drilling in Anwar and drilling in additional places. We're going to have to develop new sources of energy if we want to become energy independent.
ROBERTS: All right. Governor Mitt Romney from Massachusetts this morning. Governor, it's good to see you. We'll keep checking back with you. Thanks very much for joining us this morning.
ROMNEY: Thanks, John.
ROBERTS: All right. Take care. Alina.
ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Spirited interview. The race rolls on.
Here's a look at what's ahead. 217 delegates up for grabs in the final six contests. Take a look at the wall there. 28 delegates at stake next Tuesday in West Virginia alone. Then in two weeks, it's on to Kentucky and Oregon with a total of 103 delegates. Then on July 1st -- June 1st, rather, June 1st, Puerto Rico weighs in with 55 delegates, and two days later it's Montana with 16 and South Dakota with 15. So is there a split developing in the Democratic party? We'll talk about the red-blue divide ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We believe in hard work. We believe in personal responsibility and self-reliance. But we also believe that we have a larger responsibility to one another as Americans, that America is a place, that America is the place where you can make it if you try.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHO: All right. Let's see what we learned from Indiana and North Carolina and how it affects what happens next. Senior political analyst Bill Schneider joins us with a look at the exit polls. Interesting, Bill, one of Hillary Clinton's pitches to superdelegates is that if she gets the nomination, Obama voters are going to cross over and vote for her, at least in North Carolina.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That is true right now, and I emphasize the words right now because the campaign is a long ways away. Let's take a look at those Obama voters in North Carolina. If they were asked to choose between Clinton and John McCain, 72 percent would, indeed, nearly three-quarters, vote for Hillary Clinton. Just 11 percent for McCain. Another 14 percent wouldn't vote. So just a quarter of those voters would fail to vote for Hillary Clinton.
Now what would the Clinton voters do if they are faced with a choice between Obama and McCain. Look at this. Fewer than half say they would vote for Obama. More than a third, 35 percent, for McCain. 12 percent wouldn't vote. That means about half of them say they would not support Barack Obama. The Hillary Clinton campaign has not failed to notice this and they point this out saying that's what makes her a stronger candidate.
CHO: Any polling on why? Why this is happening? No, not yet.
SCHNEIDER: Not clear.
CHO: OK. Let's move on to Indiana because we're seeing an interesting sort of red-blue divide in Indiana. What's going on there?
SCHNEIDER: Well, Hillary Clinton has pursued a new strategy. She's the fighting woman, the gun-toting, whiskey drinking populist, yeehaw. Well, that is her strategy and you know what, it's showing up in the results. About half the Democrats, Democrats in Indiana said they have a gun in the household. And take a look at this. If they have a gun in the household, they voted for Hillary Clinton, 59 percent to 41 percent. Those Democrats, the other half who don't have a gun in the household, they voted for Obama by about the same margin, 58 percent to 42 percent. We are seeing something we haven't really seen in the past, a red-blue divide in the country, yes, but now in the Democratic Party. CHO: That's interesting.
SCHNEIDER: Clinton is getting the red Democrats, seniors, Reagan Democrats, whites, moderates and conservatives, and Obama is getting blue Democrats, African-Americans, young voters, upscale professionals,, and well-educated liberals. That divide is in the country, but in the Democrat party, it's new.
CHO: Hillary Clinton working the working class.
SCHNEIDER: That's right. She's a whole new candidate, and it's showing up in the results.
CHO: Hey, listen, anytime we can hear Bill Schneider say yee-haw this early in the morning. It's a good day. Bill Schneider, will talk to you a little bit later. John.
SCHNEIDER: OK.
ROBERTS: Straight from the two campaigns, James Carville and former Clinton supporter and D.N.C. leader Joe Andrew joins us with their thoughts on where we go from here. and the Bush administration urging military leaders in Myanmar to let the United States help with cyclone relief. 22,000 people confirmed dead at this point. 40,000 still missing. As many as a million people left homeless. We have the only correspondent inside Myanmar. We'll show you what the disaster looks like from the ground ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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ROBERTS: He won and she won, but he won what he called a big state. Barack Obama taking North Carolina by 14 points with 115 delegates. Hillary Clinton insisting she is still in it to win it. Let's bring in our political panel. Julian Epstein, Democratic strategist and Clinton supporter. Melissa Harris-Lacewell is a contributor to the root.com. She supports Barack Obama. Leslie Sanchez, Republican strategist, John Dickerson is the chief correspondent for slate.com and also a CNN political analyst.
So, Barack Obama last night and Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton said I will support the Democratic nominee. Barack Obama saying that we will unite the party. Let's listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Yes, yes there have been bruised feelings on both sides. Yes, each side desperately wants their candidate to win, but ultimately this race is not about Hillary Clinton, it's not about Barack Obama, it's not about John McCain. This election is about you, the American people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: So Julian or Melissa, either of you willing to say while we may eventually heal the Democratic party, it's going to be a difficult process? JULIAN EPSTEIN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I don't think, I mean, look at the year 2000 --
ROBERTS: Let bygones be bygones?
EPSTEIN: This is not, by normal standards, this is not a particularly negative campaign. Think about the year 2000 when John McCain was running against George Bush. That was a very, very nasty campaign, particularly in South Carolina. This is nothing like that. This is --
ROBERTS: Yes, but the Republican Party also threw John McCain overboard and said let's get on with it.
EPSTEIN: But the party came together, and we face a challenge that's nothing like what the Republicans faced in 2000. I have no doubt that the Clinton and Obama camps will come together. And in fact, that helps Hillary Clinton's argument because her argument is right now, look, we will come together, this will be a unified party. Give us time to work this out.
ROBERTS: Do you agree with that?
MELISSA HARRIS-LACEWELL, SUPPORTS BARACK OBAMA: No. I have to disagree for two reasons. One, the only way that Hillary Clinton can now win is to overthrow the interests and the votes of the voters. So it's not just a matter of them battling it out, it's how this would have to end. And that's a way that for Democratic voters, we're the party that's not supposed to do that. Let me say the other big thing her is that we're not just running for the White House. From dog catcher to Senate, the Democratic Party needs attention, money, effort, a will, and as long as Hillary Clinton stays in this race, moves all of the resources and attention towards the Democratic race, she does major harm to the party.
EPSTEIN: What Obama said last night, what Obama himself -- the two leading candidates are saying we will come together, and that gives Hillary Clinton --
ROBERTS: It's fine for the candidates to say that, but what about the electorate? We get thousands of e-mails every day and then, no question a lot of people e-mail us maybe feel a little strongly, but they are so polarized. So divided on this issue.
EPSTEIN: There's a lot of discussion about whether people are going to do kumbaya or take their marbles and go home? It's possible that both could happen, the question is I think for the most part the party will come together. What the defection rate will be, if the can the defection rate is higher than five percent --
ROBERTS: Well, we saw those numbers Bill Schneider had.
EPSTEIN: Yes, but that's going to change.
ROBERTS: All the Hillary voters say that they would either defect - (crosstalk)
EPSTEIN: Absolutely meaningless number.
HARRIS-LACEWELL: Barack is winning debates.
ROBERTS: You got to be loving this though, sitting back and watching these folks --
LESLIE SANCHEZ, Republican STRATEGIST: I'm glad it's on the Democratic side, and not on the Republican side, but I think that there's a very really issue. Do you deny the first strong viable African-American candidate who could be a Democratic nominee or the first very strong powerful woman who could do that. I mean those are serious. It also shows you a party that's built on a civil rights record for the last half century. These are important issues for this coalition and something that you don't walk away and when you raise 420-plus million dollars, people are committed to those candidates, I think you're seeing that with Clinton voters.
ROBERTS: Lots more to talk about and we'll get back to it, folks. Thanks. Alina.
CHO: John, thanks. Senator Barack Obama closing in on the magic number saying he's less than 200 delegates away, but the Clinton camp says not so fast. The two sides go head-to-head, coming up. Plus, an up close look at a global disaster. A humanitarian crisis. CNN has the only western journalist inside Myanmar. The human toll from the devastating cyclone, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
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CHO: All right. We have some breaking news just coming into CNN. Let's get straight to Barbara Starr at the Pentagon who is working her sources there. Hey, Barbara, what are you learning?
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Alina, the U.S. military is making plans to get on the move to help with the cyclone victims in Myanmar. CNN has learned that now c-130 aircraft, six of them, have landed in Thailand from Guam. They are on stand-by trying to get ready to go into Myanmar if they get permission from the government there. As well, the USS Ethics, a U.S. Navy warship, off the coast of Thailand making plans at this point to offload its helicopters, put those helicopters into Thailand, also on standby, ready to go in. The U.S. military trying to assemble its assets waiting for permission from the military government in Myanmar. Alina.
CHO: That aid is so badly needed in the wake of this devastating cyclone. Barbara Starr at the Pentagon. Barbara, thank you.
CNN's Dan Rivers is the only correspondent inside Myanmar. He filed this report and a warning. Some of the images may be disturbing.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) DAN RIVERS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It took almost everything, cyclone Nargis has left Bogalay a shell of a town. People scavenging in what looks a war zone. The blank, numb stares of the survivors tell of the horror here, and the horror is still stalking these streets. Some scenes are beyond words. Bodies are being unceremoniously dumped in the river. Monasteries are being used as temporary shelter for hundreds of people. Here, 600 are sleeping where they can.
RIVERS (on-camera): Everyone in this room has lost their homes and many have lost their loved ones. The monks say there is enough food to feed these people for two more days. After that, they don't know what they're going to do.
RIVERS (voice-over): The food, carefully watched by young novices. This woman says there's nothing left. She's totally dependent on the monastery. This man says I'll have to survive somehow. I'll eat whatever the people donate. In another monastery, we find what they call the operating theater. This place seems utterly without medical supplies as this man's wounds show.
RIVERS (on-camera): Well, this is one of the relief centers in Bogalay, if you can call it a relief center. But there's not much in the way of aid being given out, a little bit of rice. But many of these people have lost everything they own, and including many of their loved ones. There are horrific scenes with the bodies being dumped into the river. We can't really film very overtly here. The authorities are not pleased we're here. And at the moment, I think soldiers are coming so we we're going to have to leave.
RIVERS (voice-over): Myanmar's top military brass flew in to assess the damage. From the air the epic scale of this disaster was clear. Mile upon mile of devastated countryside. But it's only up close on the ground that you see the human face of this tragedy, making shelter where they can under the black skies that brought such mayhem and suffering. Dan Rivers, CNN, Bogalay, southern Myanmar.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): On the brink.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We stand less than 200 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination for president of the United States.
ROBERTS: While Obama closes in, Clinton plans her next move.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's full speed onto the White House!
ROBERTS: What's her appeal now to undecided superdelegates? James Carville joins us live.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) CHO: We have an all-star line up on this post primary day. James Carville and Joe Andrew in just a moment. But first, our "Quick Vote" today, is there any way Clinton can win the Democratic nomination? Right now, 23 percent of you say yes, 77 percent of you say no. Keep voting. Cast your vote at cnn.com.
ROBERTS: We're getting lots of thoughts from you this morning as well. This from Sandy in Stockbridge, Georgia who writes to say "the fact is there is no way that she can win. Why don't we call this what it is, a desperate attempt to steal the nomination. That is the only way she can win this. She has the right to stay, but certainly no reason."
CHO: Ann in Monticello, New York, writes "I am a Senator Obama supporter, but Senator Clinton has a reputation of moving mountains. How far she can move this one is questionable, but according to her standards, not impossible. May the best person for the job win."
ROBERTS: They know something about mountains up there in Monticello right near the Catskills. And from Paul in Austin, it's time for Hillary Clinton to take the position of being vice president. She has a strong argument of why she should be and it would be harmful for Obama not to select her."
Barack Obama says he's less than 200 delegates away from winning the Democratic nomination for president. Senator Clinton campaigning in West Virginia this morning, the next battleground and making her appeal to superdelegates. James Carville is a CNN contributor and Clinton supporter. Joe Andrew is the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Last night, he made headlines when he switched his support from Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama.
Gentlemen, welcome to both of you. James, let me start with you. You told "Newsweek" magazine recently about the contest last night "the onus is on her. She's got to do better than a tie. If she wins Indiana and North Carolina, she's the nominee. She's got to shock the system." She tied last night so where does she stand?
JAMES CARVILLE, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Right. She was an underdog yesterday. She's an underdog this morning. That's right and I think she has to go into Oregon. I think it's going to be very important, but I think that right now she was an underdog, she is an underdog. She won Indiana, so the tie allows this thing to go on. It's going to be an interesting race and we'll see where it goes from there.
ROBERTS: Is there reason for her to stay in the race?
CARVILLE: Well, why would she get out of the race? Of course she's going to stay in the race. She has absolutely no intention whatsoever. She went 6 out of the last 7 primaries. Remember that well for the people who are voting for her Florida and Michigan, which she would have won both of those. Let's play this thing to the end. And when it's over, we have an obvious nominee and the party will unite but she has no intention at all of getting out of the race.
ROBERTS: But the math is very much against her. Paint me a scenario that -- of how she wins the nomination.
CARVILLE: Well, if she wins Oregon, she won 6 out of the last 7 primaries. Let's see what happens to the popular vote in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico. I don't know, but I'm a sports fan, and no one ever ends a game before it's over. You know, why wouldn't she go to the end? And let's see what happens here. Let's see what happens in Oregon. I don't know if any people are clamoring not to vote in this.
ROBERTS: Joe Andrew, of course, the big story today is the superdelegates and how they're going to go because - you know, put it this way, if Hillary Clinton wins all of the remaining pledge delegates, she still can't get to the finish line. If they split them the way they have been. Barack Obama can't get to the finish line either. So, it's down to the superdelegates. Based on the results last night, do you expect that superdelegates are going to start breaking one way or the other?
JOE ANDREW, FORMER D.N.C. CHAIRMAN: Well, I do, John. I think they're going to start breaking for Barack Obama. Senator Clinton needed to have two big wins last night, and what happened is that you saw a commanding win by Barack Obama in the tenth largest state in the country and a whisker thin win by Hillary Clinton only because 7 percent of the voters were Republicans who came out encouraged by Rush Limbaugh to vote for Hillary Clinton because Rush Limbaugh believes that Hillary Clinton is the weaker candidate, plus Rush Limbaugh and the Republicans want this process to go on. The vast majority of the superdelegates are from states that voted weeks if not months ago, and so I think you're going to see more and more of them over the coming days. You're going to come out and say we need a presumptive nominee. Nobody is trying to stop these primaries. We know millions of people are going to come out and vote, just like they vote for John McCain. The Democrats, I think, know who their presumptive nominee is going to be. We saw the first speech of the general election by Barack Obama last night. They're going to start rallying around him and we're going to win in November.
ROBERTS: Joe, sorry. James, John King has done some projections for us this morning, in which even if you give Hillary Clinton 65 percent of the vote, there isn't anything that she's won by that margin. She still needs to win 60 percent to 65 percent of these superdelegates over in order for her to cross the finish line. What is the argument that she makes to the superdelegates to say I'm the person?
CARVILLE: Well, first of all, she win 6 out of the last 7 primaries. Again, I repeat that Obama did not want to have a rerun in Florida and Michigan, so we don't know who would have won those two states, which would have significantly change the electoral map. You know, you got to run to the nomination, you can't run from it. But having said all of that, you know, they're going to make the arguments, I agree she needs to shake something up. And Jim III, I guess it is, will have a nominee and we'll unite but any talk to anybody getting out of the race right now is just pretty mature.
ROBERTS: Sure.
