Return to Transcripts main page
American Morning
Senator Hillary Clinton Pulling Out a Must-Win in Indiana; Obama Overwhelmingly Wins North Carolina
Aired May 07, 2008 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JAMES CARVILLE, CLINTON SUPPORTER: You know, you got to run to the nomination, you can't run from it. But having said all of that, you know, if they are going to make the arguments, I agree she needs to shake something up. And June 3rd, I guess it is, will have a nominee and we'll get to have -- we'll unite.
But any talk of anybody getting out of the race right now is just premature and --
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Sure. But is it possible for her to win over 60 percent to 65 percent of the remaining superdelegates looking at the way that they have split so far?
CARVILLE: Again, she wins six out of the last seven primaries. She has to win Oregon. If she wins Oregon, she would have won Florida and Michigan, which would (INAUDIBLE) eight out of the last nine.
I think by every estimation right now, she's coming across as a strong in general election candidate and make her case. And if she doesn't make her case, then Obama will be the nominee, then we'll now be for him. But I don't understand what's the problem with allowing her to make a case and that's what she is going to do and we need to go on from that.
ROBERTS: Joe, to that point about the general election, Barack Obama came close in Indiana and as we saw in Indiana he won pockets. He won in Lake County, he won Gary, Indiana, won in Indianapolis, but Hillary Clinton literally won the rest of the state.
We saw that same scenario in Pennsylvania, that he wins in the major urban areas but she wins across the state. It almost looks like a Democrat against a Republican when you put up the maps. Why is it that he can't win across the state? What does that say about his electability in November?
JOE ANDREW, OBAMA SUPPORTER: Well, I think he can win across the state. Remember, those vote totals we're looking at your maps, John. That's Democratic voters, right? That doesn't tell us exactly what happened to Republicans.
It's not white, lower-income Democrats at the end of the day we're going to have to worry about. It's white, lower-income independents as well. And what you'll see, no matter Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton is the nominee, is Democrats are going to come together in the end and we're going to have to reach out to those independent voters. The people that have not yet voted and not yet spoken. Whether -- James has been an expert on this and I think that he's absolutely right that people will come together.
But let's not forget that nobody is trying to stop this process. You know, Barack Obama is not arguing that people shouldn't come out to the polls and he is certainly not arguing that Florida and Michigan shouldn't be seated in this, right?
This is all part of the myth here that's being created as the Clinton team tries to come up with some argument for them with the superdelegates.
ROBERTS: You want to respond, James?
ANDREW: The reality of it is, James, you know, that dog won't hunt. The underdog doesn't even hunt.
CARVILLE: You know, sir, I don't know how to tell you this. I offered to pay for it. Governor Rendell, Governor Corzine and I did to have a revote. Maybe you were busy elsewhere, but I'm not going to reargue what the obvious is. It would have been much better to have a revote and let these folks vote. I'm the kind of Democrat who believes everybody ought to vote, even gun-toting Democrats like myself.
ROBERTS: The rules committee is meeting at the end of this month to talk about what to do regarding Florida and Michigan. James, what do you think is a fair way to address this situation?
CARVILLE: The fair way and the right way would have been to allow a revote --
ROBERTS: But you can't. That option is gone. That option is gone.
CARVILLE: I'm not an expert in that. You'd have to talk to people like Senator Levin or Senator Nelson.
ROBERTS: Would a 50/50 split be amenable to you?
CARVILLE: That's like people not voting. That's an insult.
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: Joe, how do you think it should be?
ANDREW: Well, look, first off, it was the state legislatures in each one of these states that there wasn't going to be a vote again. That's the simple fact.
ROBERTS: Can we talk about what lies ahead as opposed to what didn't happen. I mean, they have to figure out what to do about this.
(CROSSTALK) ANDREW: And there's no question there's going to be a compromise. There's no question that those delegates are going to get seated. There's no question they're going to participate in the convention. We'll figure out exactly how it is they ought to be there.
But no matter how you cut this, there's no question that if you seat them that is not going to lead to Hillary Clinton having more pledged delegates than Barack Obama. She's going to be behind no matter how you do the math in this case. And that's why I think the superdelegates are going to be out again to start expressing their pinions over the coming days and weeks.
ROBERTS: Well, at least a month still lying ahead. Joe Andrew, James Carville, thanks for joining us this morning. Good to see both of you.
ANDREW: Thanks.
CARVILLE: Appreciate it.
ROBERTS: All right. Alina?
ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A win is a win. Full speed ahead. Well, that's the tone of the Clinton camp this morning after winning Indiana by just two points. It took all night to count all the votes.
Senator Clinton watched her double-digit lead shrink before CNN projected her win just after 1:00 in the morning. It was very late. Lake County right outside Obama's hometown of Chicago caused the holdup and sparked his comeback.
A large number of absentee ballots and a record turnout delayed the tallies. Obama also won urban areas like Indianapolis, while rural areas were Clinton's strength. Now before they tallied all the votes, Senator Clinton was already claiming victory in Indiana last night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can once again be the can-do nation. A nation that defies the odds and greets the future with optimism and hope. There isn't anything America can't do. Once we make up our minds to start acting like Americans again.
(APPLAUSE)
And that is exactly what we intend to do. Thank you and God bless you. And God bless America.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHO: Barack Obama is saying he got his big win in a big state after toasting the victory in North Carolina. Obama topped Clinton by 14 points. The updated CNN delegate tally has Barack Obama with 1,836, Hillary Clinton with 1,681. A difference of 155 delegates. Still very close.
In his speech last night in Raleigh, Obama talked about overcoming personal attacks and regaining the momentum.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Hope can find its way back from the darkest of corners. And when we are told that we cannot bring about the change that we seek, we answer with one voice: Yes, we can.
CROWD: Yes, we can!
OBAMA: So, North Carolina and America, don't ever forget that this election is not about me or any candidate. Don't ever forget that this campaign is about you. It's about your hopes; it's about your dreams; it's about your struggles; it's about your aspirations; it's about securing your portion of the American dream.
Don't ever forget that we have a choice in this country. That we can choose not to be divided, that we can choose not to be afraid, that we can still choose this moment to finally come together and solve the problems we've talked about all those other years and all those other elections.
This time can be different than all the rest. This time we can face down those who say our road is too long, that our climb is too steep, that we can no longer achieve the change that we seek.
This is our time to answer the call that so many generations of Americans have answered before, by insisting that, by hard work and by sacrifice, the American dream will endure.
Thank you. Thank you, North Carolina. May God bless you and the United States of America. Thank you.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHO: Senior political correspondent Candy Crowley joins me from Raleigh, North Carolina, part of the Best Political Team on Television.
Hey, Candy, good morning. Let's talk about Hillary Clinton. Her campaign made a last-minute decision to campaign in West Virginia today, site of the next primary. What's the strategy here?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, the strategy is to say, you know, despite what you heard last night, this race is not over. They saw the results come in, they knew he won big in North Carolina, but they won Indiana regardless of that shrinking margin.
And what they saw really in the news media was all the commentary of, well, it's over. It wasn't always a split decision. They move on. It basically was, OK, she can not possibly overcome this. So, their decision to move her into West Virginia today, a state she is almost certain to win, is a message, and the message is I'm still in this.
CHO: All right. But still going to be difficult to raise money. Let's talk a little bit about that, because a lot of her critics are quick to point out that the math isn't there. So, how does she make the plea to voters vote for me and more immediately, give me money?
CROWLEY: Well, you heard her make it last night. Listen, we are seeing in these exit polls a great degree of passion for both of these candidates. And I think you'd see it when you asked them will you vote for the other one. We get enormous amounts on both sides say, no, I would never do it.
That probably should be interpreted more as a passion for their own candidate. So, they are very diehard Hillary Clinton people out there. You also add onto that the fact that recently, after her win in Pennsylvania, a lot of the donations she was picking up were small donations, so she can go back there and say I need to move on.
Also, let's not forget that she has a very large personal bank account. So, if needs be, she could write herself a check.
CHO: Yes, she does, or she could borrow from her husband as well. But let's talk about Senator Obama.
CROWLEY: Yes.
CHO: As you mentioned last night, he gave arguably the longest acceptance speech of the primary season last night. And you saw a shift in tone, Candy. Talk about that.
CROWLEY: Well, beginning to see that on the campaign trail. We saw -- you know, if you were out on the campaign trail with him, you'd be surprised how many times someone would get up and say, you know, I hear that you don't pledge of allegiance to the flag, or, you know, I hear that your flag lapel pin that you don't wear it. Why is that?
This was a very here's why I love America. It's because I'm standing here. Only in this country is it possible. So, we saw an extension of what's going on on the campaign trail. This is the post- Wright era. This is who I am.
There are many times he'll stand up in a town hall meeting, and he did a lot in North Carolina, saying do you want to know who I am. Do you want to look inside me? Here's who I am. I'm the son of a single mother.
You know, she went on food stamps. My grandfather went to college on the GI bill. That kind of I am one of you. I am not this exotic person that has been defined so far by Jeremiah Wright and by others.
So, this is very definitely where he's been going on the campaign. It is just a longer speech and I thought what we heard last night actually was a convention speech and an argument to those superdelegates. And we've got to watch those guys over the next couple weeks.
CHO: I know you've said that he sounded more like a general election candidate and, certainly, hearing more about Obama's biography, certainly. Candy Crowley, live for us in Raleigh, North Carolina.
Candy, thanks.
John?
ROBERTS: We're looking ahead to all of the remaining states. The numbers and the superdelegate count. With John King, he is at the magic wall for us this morning.
And we have talked with former McCain rival Mitt Romney about the Democratic race and McCain's Gas Tax Holiday. Who would McCain like to face in the fall? That's ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: It's 12 minutes after the hour. John McCain seems to be focusing on Barack Obama, not Hillary Clinton as his potential opponent come November. A few minutes ago, I spoke with McCain supporter and former candidate Mitt Romney and asked him if McCain would rather run against Obama.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY, MCCAIN SUPPORTER: Well, I can't speak for Senator McCain in that regard, but I can say that as you look at Barack Obama, you see a person who is well spoken and articulate. He can read a prompter very well and energize a crowd.
But he has not accomplished anything during his life in terms of legislation or leading an enterprise or making a business work or a city work or a state work. He really has very little experience. And, you know, the presidency of the United States is not an internship.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Romney says Hillary Clinton is flawed as a candidate, but Barack Obama is more flawed. And, Alina, gave us an interesting window into a potential Republican line of attack should Barack Obama become the nominee.
CHO: Most certainly does. All right. Thanks, John.
The next primary less than week away if you can believe it. Let's get a look-ahead with CNN's chief national correspondent John King back at the magic wall.
So, West Virginia is next. Six days away. Hard to believe. JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We'll be here next Monday and Tuesday and then on Wednesday morning like this, analyzing what happened. You just heard James Carville a few moments ago talking to John saying about why would she get out, there are still more contests to go. Let's play it out, the game's not over.
Well, he's absolutely right. The game is not over. But look at this map, Alina. It is increasingly filled in. Meaning we are in the final rounds of this game. West Virginia is next. West Virginia has 39 total delegates. Let's just map this out so people can understand how hard the math is for Senator Clinton.
If you look up here right now, Senator Obama leads in the delegate count. He leads in the pledged delegate count. So, when you win on primary and caucus day, he's winning there. And he's catching up among the superdelegates, an area where Senator Clinton once had a huge lead.
Let's just say for the sake of argument, she starts winning big. Now, this is all hypothetical. But let's say she wins West Virginia, 65-35. She starts to catch up a little bit. Kentucky, 65-35. She starts to catch up a little bit more. Puerto Rico, 65-35. She's closing but, look, the Democratic Party rules are proportional. Even at 35 percent, which should be under performing what he's done. Everywhere else, Barack Obama would be picking up delegates.
Let's go out here. These are states where Obama is favored. But I'm going to give them to Senator Clinton just to show how hard the math would be. If she won the rest, 65-35, a huge proportion, bigger than she's doing -- better than she's doing anywhere right now, this would still be your end result. Barack Obama would still be ahead at the end even if Senator Clinton wins 65 percent of the votes and 65 percent of the delegates the way out.
So, where does that get you? It just gets you to this math. This is where we are this morning. A few more delegates from last night proportion, but Barack Obama is here. You see how close he is to the finish line. Senator Clinton is back here.
Alina, if they split these roughly 50-50 the rest of the way, you get a scenario under which, with half of the superdelegates, guess what? Senator Clinton is still short, Barack Obama crosses the finish line.
So, 50-50 is not good enough for Senator Clinton. 60-40 is probably not good enough for Senator Clinton. She needs to be winning in the high 60 percent, both the pledged delegates and superdelegates remaining. She has not done that so far.
There's no reason to believe looking at the polls today she can do it now especially because she is behind in the money chase, but that is the challenge. She needs a dramatic change in the race to turn this math around.
CHO: Well, she's heading to West Virginia today and it's full speed ahead in her words. John King, our chief national correspondent at the magic wall.
John, thanks again.
John?
ROBERTS: Love that magic wall. Big win and a close one at that. Drama last night and it's still not over. Coming up, we're going to take a look at the next big races, now more important than ever, as the delegates are whittled down and the focus goes to those all- important and deciding superdelegates.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: 18 minutes after the hour. Senator Hillary Clinton pulling out a must-win in Indiana. It was a late-night nail-biter as Clinton saw her lead shrink to 22,000 votes. But it was enough. She got 51 percent of the vote to Barack Obama's 49 percent.
Much different story in North Carolina, though. Obama won an overwhelming 56 percent of the vote compared to Clinton's 42 percent.
So, now it's on to West Virginia next Tuesday, and that's where CNN's Jim Acosta is, live in Charleston for us this morning.
And a beautiful day there to start a campaign, Jim.
JIM ACOSTA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Not bad, John. And Hillary Clinton is on her way to Shepherdstown, West Virginia today. She's going to be campaigning on the economy. And she's headed to the state for one reason -- there's delegate gold. 28 delegates, to be specific, in these hills.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ACOSTA (voice-over): Coal is king in West Virginia, but another fuel, gasoline, is running a close second these days. And that hurts in a state where workers have one of the longest commute times in the country.
GOV. JOE MANCHIN (D), WEST VIRGINIA: I've never felt more helpless as being governor of my great state of West Virginia that I just want to jump in and do something. It's wrong.
ACOSTA: Which is why West Virginia Governor Joe Minchin is open to Hillary Clinton's plan for a Gas Tax Holiday. But that doesn't mean this superdelegate is ready to make an endorsement. He did take note, however, when Barack Obama infamously referred to bitter, small- town Pennsylvania voters who cling to their guns.
MANCHIN: I'm going to give every candidate the benefit of the doubt. Sometimes things slipped out.
ACOSTA: But you must have heard something, Governor.
MANCHIN: Sure. Well, here, first of all, I can assure you we're a state that really, really clings to the Second Amendment. ACOSTA: West Virginia plays to nearly all of Clinton's demographic strengths. It's older, whiter and more rural than the rest of America. But that doesn't mean voters here are resistant to change.
DAVID LOVEJOY, RETIRED COAL MINER: I think it's time. Either a woman or a black person or an African-American. I think it's time.
ACOSTA: This is after all the state that made Democratic primary history a half century ago. Can people in West Virginia vote for a guy named Barack Obama?
ROBERT RUPP, WEST VIRGINIA WESTLEYAN UNIVERSITY: 48 years ago they asked if they could vote for a Boston Irish millionaire who was a Catholic, and they did in a landslide vote.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ACOSTA: And that professor has dubbed this state the Appalachian primary, so it's no surprise that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are making appeals to this state's coal industry. The local Coal Miners Union did endorse John Edwards but it's staying neutral for now.
John?
ROBERTS: Jim Acosta for us this morning outside the State House there in West Virginia. Jim, thanks very much.
Alina?
CHO: All right. We want to get to our "Quick Vote" this morning. Is there any way Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic nomination? Critics will say the math isn't there. Right now, 24 percent of you say yes, 76 percent of you say no. You can still vote. Cast your vote at cnn.com/am.
We want to hear from you via e-mail as well. We heard from the candidates last night. What's the message this morning? Howard Wilson from the Clinton campaign. Robert Gibbs from the Obama campaign joins us just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHO: Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were separated by only about 22,000 votes in Indiana. When it was all over, Hillary Clinton eked out in the battle for state. Senator Clinton carried Indiana by two percentage points. 51 percent to 49 percent. It was close. But there was no doubt in North Carolina. Obama won it early and won it big. 14-point margin, 56 percent to 42 percent.
Our Suzanne Malveaux has some exclusive details about the Clinton campaign's next move. And she joins us live again from Indianapolis.
Hey, Suzanne. Good morning. So full speed ahead in her words. How she is going to make the case to superdelegates going forward? SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, a couple things that they're trying to emphasize here and they are working these phones to the superdelegates constantly.
But the one thing that they are saying is that Indiana, North Carolina, there's no chance Democrats are going to win those states in the fall. Therefore, they may have been important last night, but they're not important going forward in the general election.
Conversely, they say the states like Ohio and Florida, those are the states that Clinton won, that those are the ones that are going to be in play, those swing states.
Secondly, they bring up a couple of things about the exit polls. They say that the Obama supporters are more likely to support Clinton than the other way around for Clinton supporters to support Obama and that's something to consider when uniting the party.
And they also make the case as well they say that the Clinton supporters are more intensely loyal to her, that they are going to stick by her. They are not necessarily going to switch sides.
Alina?
CHO: Suzanne Malveaux live for us in Indianapolis. Suzanne, great to see you. Thanks.
John?
And it's 25 minutes after the hour. Let's get to campaigns. Howard Wolfson is the communications director for Hillary Clinton's campaign. Robert Gibbs the communications director for Barack Obama. And they both join us now.
Howard Wolfson, let's go to you first. Some commentators last night were suggesting that we now know who the nominee is going to be and that's Barack Obama.
What do you say to such talk?
HOWARD WOLFSON, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, CLINTON CAMPAIGN: Well, I can't count the number of times that pundits have counted us out of this race. They've declared Barack Obama the winner. Thankfully for us, pundits don't get to choose the nominee. Voters do. We have an exciting contest coming up in West Virginia next Tuesday where we think we'll do well.
Senator Clinton is going there to campaign today. And this candidacy and this campaign continues on.
ROBERTS: The math, no question, is against her, as John King has been talking about all morning. Paint me a scenario under which she becomes the nominee.
WOLFSON: Sure. Well, first, we do have to do well in the remaining contests. It begins next week in West Virginia. West Virginia is a critically important swing state.
Senator Clinton pledged last night to carry it in November if she is the nominee. We need to do well there and we need to do well in the upcoming states. We believe that Florida and Michigan ought to be seated. This is not a country with 48 states. It's a country with 50. The delegations from Florida and Michigan ought to be seated. We won those states. We believe that we should have the delegates seated in a way that the primaries reflect.
And then, of course, we're going to have to continue making the case both to the superdelegates and to voters across this country that we'd be the better candidate against John McCain and that we'd be the better president than Barack Obama.
ROBERTS: Robert Gibbs, in terms of that appeal to superdelegates, what's the case that your campaign is going to make as it gets on the phone to those remaining 278 uncommitted superdelegates today?
ROBERT GIBBS, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, OBAMA CAMPAIGN: Well, I think Howard touched on some of the things that I think demonstrate why Barack Obama would be a stronger candidate. He's more electable in the fall. He's more likely to be the next president of the United States than Hillary Clinton is. The exit polling even in Indiana showed that Barack Obama was the candidate that voters believe had a better chance of improving the economy and shared their values.
ROBERTS: But he couldn't --
GIBBS: So I think that goes a long way.
ROBERTS: But he couldn't win in his own back yard, so how do you make the case for electability?
GIBBS: You make it by looking at the state-by-state polling that shows that we run clearly ahead of somebody like John McCain in the swing states that really matter. I think what you saw last night in Indiana, a huge lead that Senator Clinton went into with.
You know, they talked about North Carolina being a game-changing event. That was a game-changing event because it was a decisive victory for Barack Obama. That's a strong and resonating message to superdelegates.
The delegate math gets exponentially harder for Senator Clinton every day remaining in this primary. And again, I think what you saw last night was a commanding effort by Barack Obama, somebody who is reaching out to unify this party because we can't afford a third George Bush term with John McCain.
ROBERTS: Howard, according to John King's magic wall, and it's just an algorithm, it's just a math, if she were to win 65 percent of the contest -- if she were to win all of the remaining contests by a 65/35 margin, she would still need to get 60 percent of the superdelegates in order to cross the finish line. Is that something you can do? Even under that generous scenario? WOLFSON: Oh, absolutely. Look, we're going to make the case today. Senator Obama flatly predicted victory in both Indiana and North Carolina. He predicted a seven-point victory in Indiana. Indiana shares as you said a backyard with Illinois.
25 percent of Hoosiers get their media from Chicago. We were outspent dramatically there and still we came from behind to win. And as Robert knows, and as we'll be making the case today to superdelegates, Senator Clinton runs ahead of Senator Obama in key swing states like Florida, like Ohio, like Pennsylvania, like Michigan, states that we won in this nominating process and that Senator Obama lost.
ROBERTS: So, you say that you will make the case, but can you actually do it?
WOLFSON: Absolutely. It begins next week in West Virginia. We're going to have to have a strong showing there. We're going to have to continue to do well. We want to have the delegations from Florida and Michigan seated. We won those states, and those delegates ought to be participating in the convention.
And, of course, we're going to show data that shows that Senator Clinton can win and has won the key swing states that any Democrat needs to win in November. That we run ahead of Senator Obama in those key swing states and that our coalition of working class voters, middle income voters, is the kind of swing coalition that any Democrat needs to win in November.
ROBERTS: Howard, I'd love to keep going with this because I got a lot more questions I want to ask, but unfortunately, we've had a technical difficulty and we've lost Robert Gibbs for some reason. Where Robert Gibbs was, suddenly the actor Hector Elizondo popped up.
WOLFSON: I'm willing to debate him if that would be helpful.
ROBERTS: Sure you would.
WOLFSON: Bring him on, let's go.
ROBERTS: Somebody is obviously -- somebody threw a switch somewhere. So, all right, thanks for being with us today. Still a long road ahead and we'll get back to you. Appreciate it.
WOLFSON: Thank you.
ROBERTS: What happened?
CHO: There is laughter in the peanut gallery behind us.
ROBERTS: The most bizarre thing I've ever seen.
CHO: All right. Well, it was a spirited discussion and a good one.
ROBERTS: I wonder if Hector was talking about anything interesting.
CHO: Well, we'll check in with him later.
About 280 superdelegates still uncommitted. Did the Indiana and North Carolina contests make up any minds? We'll ask one of the undecided superdelegates ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHO: So, what are the voters in Indiana saying after Hillary Clinton eked out a win? We called the race just after 1:00 in the morning. Let's go back to the host of "WIBC Morning News" in Indianapolis, my new best friends, Terri Stacy and Jake Query. Hey, guys. Good morning again. Good to see you.
TERRI STACY, CO-HOST, "WIBC MORNING NEWS": Good morning.
CHO: Hey. You guys are so perky. What happened last night? A real nail biter. So, what are your listeners saying about that this morning?
JAKE QUERY, CO-HOST, "WIBC MORNING NEWS": Well, I think, you know, it was expected that Hillary Clinton would win Indiana, but I think the big issue here is how many people crossed over, how many Republicans went ahead and voted in the Democratic primaries. And in addition to that, Terri, we know a lot of people were last-minute decision makers, most of them are saying -- and there were a lot of people who claimed that they were undecided as of a week ago or so.
STACY: That's right.
QUERY: And most of those, I think ended up going with Hillary Clinton. Although interestingly enough, they did not feel that the situation with Reverend Wright was a key issue to them. I think we saw a lot of cross over voting.
CHO: Terri, I want you guys to hold up. Do you have them, those newspaper front pages again? Talk about that. I know you two live in different parts of Indianapolis. What happened?
QUERY: Terri lives in the sticks. Terri lives like outside of town.
STACY: A little rural. You know, the air is good.
QUERY: Yes.
STACY: Anyway, I get my edition at about 4:00 in the morning. My edition says "Fight goes on." I had gone to bed, so I truly still did not know even when I had read the paper what was happening until I got here.
QUERY: Well, I m a city slicker, right. So, you know, I live closer to where the paper is printed and I get this one, "Clinton, barely." An hour after this one, one came out that said Dewey defeats Truman. I didn't get that one though. CHO: Hey, Jake. As you pointed out last time we talked, Obama took the Indianapolis area, you know, 25 percent African-American population versus 9 percent for the state as a whole. But Clinton, obviously, took the state by two points. What are your listeners saying about what appealed to them about Hillary Clinton?
QUERY: Well, Hillary Clinton, I think the biggest thing is the fact that Hillary Clinton was endorsed by most of the unions of Indiana. And that's a big - you know, there's a large contingency, especially in rural Indiana with that, and a lot of the factories outside of Indianapolis. And interestingly enough, with NAFTA moving so many jobs down to Mexico, Hillary Clinton was not shy about saying that she felt NAFTA, when she was campaigning in Indiana, especially up around the Tipton, Kokomo area, that she believed NAFTA probably was a mistake and that some changes need to be made there.
So, I feel like - well, I think people felt like they could maybe relate to that a little bit. Although Barack Obama, also, a lot of people said they felt he was very relatable. Over 60 percent of the people felt that Barack Obama was someone that they could relate to. But again, Hillary Clinton, I think in the end, the union vote really helped her out.
STACY: Also, I also think, too, the crisscrossing of the state, the Clinton family.
CHO: Terri, bring out your version, yes, of the magic wall.
STACY: The Clinton map.
QUERY: Terri went to art school, by the way, for like a year.
STACY: I did and I'm proud of that. In this - I mean, the yellow, because I don't have a blue marker, but this is Obama and then the rest of this is all Clinton. And these are the rural communities. The Clintons crisscrossing the state and touching those lives and having dinner with them and speaking in small groups, I think that may have been a little bit of a difference, too. I think that may have made a little bit of a difference.
QUERY: By the way, Evansville does still exist despite the fact that Terri didn't draw it.
CHO: Hey, Jake. I want to jump in here very quickly. I want to point out to the people who don't know this that Indiana is the reddest of the red states in the Midwest. I know you love it when I bring out that trivia. Only supported a Democrat four times since 1900. Are your Democrats pumped to come out in November.
QUERY: What's that again? I'm sorry.
CHO: Are your Democratic listeners pumped? Do they say they're going to go out there and try to make your red state blue in November?
QUERY: Yes, I think so. I will be interested to see, Alina, to be honest with you, whether or not we see, whether it's Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton, how much they will be back here to campaign for the presidential election because I think it's pretty safe to say that at 6:01 Eastern time on the presidential election day that they will project John McCain to carry Indiana. That's usually a pretty safe bet.
STACY: They have to come back to Indiana few more times. I think he has to do that.
CHO: All right. How about that for a bottom line? Jay Query and Terri Stacy, hosts of "WIBC's Morning News" in Indiana. Hey, guys, thanks for joining us.
QUERY: All right. We're back to farm reports now. Thanks. Have fun in West Virginia.
CHO: OK. John.
ROBERTS: I read plenty of those early on in my career.
Six contests remain in the primary calendar beginning with West Virginia next Tuesday. Let's turn to our panel now, Julian Epstein is a Democratic strategist who supports Hillary Clinton, Melissa Harris- Lacewell is a contributor to theroot.com, she supports Barack Obama. Leslie Sanchez, our Republican strategist, and John Dickerson, his title is so long, we won't have any time left. Let's listen to Hillary Clinton last night. She was quite confident after her win in Indiana.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: -- long ago, my opponent made a prediction. He said I would probably win Pennsylvania. He would win North Carolina. And Indiana would be the tiebreaker. Well, tonight we've come from behind, we've broken the tie, and thanks to you, it's full speed on to the White House!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: So, as you can see, quite confident about victory, making the case of the superdelegates. How does the chief political correspondent for slate.com and our CNN political analyst feel about all that this morning?
JOHN DICKERSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you hear Hillary Clinton making this argument, it's all about the superdelegates now and it has been for a while, but it really is now. There are more of them up for grabs than pledged delegates. The argument that Barack Obama said that he was going to win isn't exactly a thundering argument. You know, she said in North Carolina that it would be a game changer if she won. Well, she didn't win.
This is the problem with her debate, with her argument to the superdelegates. Every piece of evidence she puts forward, there's a fuzzying piece of evidence that Obama can put forward. She says she does better with McCain in certain states, he says he does better with McCain in certain states. And then debated is attenuated reality. Because poll numbers now about head to head man chops. It means nothing. So, she needs a strong argument, a strong piece of data. She has little bits of data but none of them so strong to reverse the trend that's gone on both in the pledge delegates and also the superdelegates. Barack Obama has won 80 percent of them since super Tuesday. It's not that she has no argument, it's that she lacks stunning, strong arguments to change the tide that has been steadily marching against her.
ROBERTS: It's about making the convincing argument to superdelegates. It's also about having the money to be able to stay in this race. Last night, in the first paragraph of here speech, she said, send money, please. And she did that after Pennsylvania and as Julian had said, as John was pointing out, the campaign was quick to announce it raised $2.5 million before the night was over. They've been eerily silent so far.
JULIAN EPSTEIN, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Yes, they have been silent. Let's hope they have good news as the day progresses. But I think there are some good arguments to pick up on John's points. One good argument she makes is that Barack Obama said Indiana was the tiebreaker. She won Indiana. She's won all of the major states since March 2nd. Remember, I said at the beginning of the show there had been a shift. I think there have been two phases. The first phase of this campaign, January, February, he had won. Since then she is winning all of the big states. She's polling ahead of John McCain. I think this is a significant fact. Nationally and in the battleground states, and this has been consistently so -- Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, the holy trinity of presidential politics. She's ahead. She's polling ahead of him now for the first time. Barack Obama with independents, he has always been able to say, because Hillary Clinton gets the working-class vote, but Barack Obama's argument has always been, but I get independents. That's no longer true.
ROBERTS: How does she countered that argument?
EPSTEIN: Superdelegates have to recognize there is a shift in the electorate in the last two months.
MELISSA HARRIS-LACEWELL, CONTRIBUTOR, THEROOT.COM: No, his candidate gave us by saying a win is a win, and we're winning, winning by every margin, winning in a way that is clear, that means, look, here's the deal, we know that Hillary Clinton has very high negatives. We also know that she has very low number of people who say they haven't made up their minds yet. Going into the general election, what you want as a candidate for whom you still have a learning curve, where the campaign will make a difference, people will get to know about this candidate. What we know about Barack Obama is every time he gets a chance to actually campaign --
EPSTEIN: Why is the Obama campaign running away from having a vote --
HARRIS-LACEWELL: Oh, come on.
EPSTEIN: -- in Michigan and Florida? HARRIS-LACEWELL: Please.
LESLIE SANCHEZ, Republican STRATEGIST: OK. There was a vote in Michigan and Florida. It's "Itchy and Scratchy" over here.
As we move on, you know, our cartoons, the reality is I think a lot of Obama supporters maybe having biased remorse. They're waiting to see what we talked about earlier, if that other shoe is going to drop. And you know, if you talk about it last night, the Democratic colleagues were saying there was a 24-hour death watch on the Hillary Clinton campaign because they thought the money would dry up. It's going to be a very difficult 24 to 48 hours.
ROBERTS: Well, we'll see what they do in terms of money.
SANCHEZ: But, we're going to see what goes from there.
ROBERTS: All right. Folks, thanks very much for joining us this morning. It was great. You came in so early, 5:00 in the morning. It's great to have you here. We'll let you go home and sleep in a few minutes. Appreciate it. We'll do it again next week. Signing up for it. Alina.
CHO: Come back soon. It could all come down to the superdelegates, and one of them joins us just ahead. Has he heard enough to make up his mind now? What if the superdelegates can't make up their minds? A look at what could happen if this Democratic race goes all the way to the convention floor, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: What if the battle for the Democratic nomination goes all the way to the National Convention? Frank Sesno joins us now live from Washington with a look at what might happen. Frank, other than Howard Dean, having a heart attack, what do you expect to see?
FRANK SESNO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, if, if, if the fight were to go all the way to the convention, it would not be a pretty picture.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you, North Carolina.
SESNO (voice-over): What a mess it would be.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you, Indiana.
SESNO: Not a brokered convention but a contested convention. Think Carter-Kennedy in 1980 when young Teddy took on incumbent Jimmy. The Kennedy forces challenged the rules, picked dozens of fights trying to sway the delegates. Would this year's convention be as divisive and unpredictable?
TAD DEVINE, 1980 CARTER CAMPAIGN: The highest authority in the Democratic Party is the national convention. Media en masse. When that convention gets under one roof, that convention can do what it wants.
SESNO: From the credentials committee that approved delegations to the rules and platform committees, they could all be battlegrounds.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Delegates, alternates, honored guests.
SESNO: On day one in Denver, the very first fight could be whether to ratify or reject the contested Michigan and Florida delegations. The outcome could tip the balance. But fights could go on. In the platform committee, for example, to flex muscle and force debate onto the convention floor. Those prime time TV speeches could get push aside by angry debates over procedure and politics.
DEVINE: To try to go out and demonstrate you control the floor of the convention, that those delegates on that convention floor will support you.
SESNO: It will be hardball for any wavering superdelegates for sure, but even the pledge delegates are by party rule bound only by good conscience, so they could flip or abstain if they decided say that Obama couldn't win or that Clinton is a danger to party unity. Emotional issues of race, gender, party disunity, a made for TV spectacular. If all else fail, someone else could even offer to run. Now, who might that be?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SESNO (on-camera): There's not much talk today, John, about Al Gore, but party insiders say, you know, all of these scenarios are out there and they're all unpleasant. That's one of the reasons why the pressure is going to increase with the Michigan, Florida business to be settled and for these superdelegates to make up their minds.
ROBERTS: You know, we talked to Chris Dodd, who is an Obama supporter, about this not so long ago and he suggested that if the Democratic Party goes into the convention divided, they literally are handing the election to John McCain. Is historical evidence, Frank, suggesting that's true?
SESNO: Well, if you go into a convention divided, if you go into a convention with problems, you're going to come out with problems. I talked about the 1980 race where the challenge there was taking place between Carter and Kennedy. Well, look what happened. Carter had lots of other problems. Kennedy didn't cause it, but it set the stage for a divided party and for a lot of questions about the incumbent at that point. So, that's the concern here, is that after this bruising battle throughout the primary season, it continues into the convention and you're real close to the general election at that point.
ROBERTS: All right. Frank Sesno for us this morning. Frank, it's always good to see you. Thanks for coming in.
SESNO: Likewise, John. Take care.
ROBERTS: Alina.
CHO: CNN NEWSROOM just minute away. Fred Whitfield at the CNN Center with a look at what's ahead. Hey, Fred. Good morning.
FREDRICKA WHITFIELD, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, Alina. Good morning to you. West Virginia, next stop. In the NEWSROOM, Hillary Clinton campaigns there today after eking out a win in the Indiana primary. Barack Obama takes North Carolina and increases his lead in delegate count. And food and water finally trickling into Myanmar, but U.N. aid workers are still waiting on the government there to let them in to help cyclone victims. And wait till you hear this voicemail. A soldier accidentally phones home during the middle of combat. We're in the NEWSROOM top of the hour on CNN. Alina and John?
CHO: That's an incredible story, Fred. We look forward to that.
All right. Coming up, some 280 superdelegates are supporting a, "candidate to be named later." So, did last night make a difference? We're going to talk with those undecided Democrats ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: We talk about the fact that this is coming down to superdelegates. And after last night's split decision, are any of the remaining undecideds superdelegates and there's about 278 of them ready to choose? Let's ask one. David Parker is an undeclared superdelegate from North Carolina, was a John Edwards supporter, now, as we said, undecided, hasn't made up his mind. As we know at this point. He joins us from Charlotte. Have you made up your mind yet this morning, David? Is there anything you saw in the result last night that have swayed you one way or the other?
DAVID PARKER, UNDECIDED VOTER: No, sir. Still haven't made up my mind. North Carolina is coming in so strong for Obama obviously has an impact.
ROBERTS: Right. People at home have to be staying, come on, you have to kind of be thinking about which way you're going to go here. How close are you?
PARKER: Well, you know, I think continuing this process and having these primaries go on helps Democratic parties in the various states. We had a tremendous turnout of white independents that generally are voting in the Republican primary and an impact of the down ballot races, as well, the Republicans nominated more conservative people, the Democrats' nominees I think more moderate because of that influx of white independents.
ROBERTS: So, what are you waiting for?
PARKER: I'm going to wait until at least June 4th. I think all these primaries ought to play on out and see where we are.
ROBERTS: But what are you looking for? I mean, what will tell you -- it's like the Supreme Court justice said, I don't know what pornography is, but I know it when I see it. What will you know when you see it?
PARKER: I guess I just haven't seen it yet. It's out there. But I'm looking for it. I still think that the economy is a moving issue. I mean, people, your commentators have tiptoed around it a little bit. But obviously in North Carolina with about 34 percent of the primary voters being African-American versus Indiana, where it's closer to the 15 percent, that has a tremendous impact on the outcome.
ROBERTS: But what is it for you? Is it a sense of who is the most electable? Is it a sense of who I'm comfortable with?
PARKER: No, it's not the comfortable level. I'm very comfortable with either one. I think both of them make an outstanding president.
ROBERTS: So, how do you determine which one is most electable?
PARKER: Looking at the rest of these primaries. Obviously, we're split 50/50. I mean, it's going to be important to see what happens at the convention. I'm looking to see who's the most persuasive on the economy. The numbers in drilling down through the CNN exit polls, the numbers are still not convincing as far as one candidate pitching their issues on the economy better than the other. I think that's going to make a difference in the fall.
ROBERTS: What about the gas tax? Does that help make up your mind one way or the another?
PARKER: Not really. It seemed to be a ploy, but I think it has important symbolic value. I mean, Senator Clinton is saying let's do something, even if my friends that are oil drivers say that they're not going to reduce the price 18 cents, just try to keep getting the same money, and that's been the experience. It has more symbolic value than actual value.
ROBERTS: David, the last time you were with us back on April the 23rd, you said you could see a scenario under what should be there at the conventions and you vote present on the first ballot and say let's go for round two.
PARKER: Yes, and I think we talk about Howard Dean.
ROBERTS: Yes. I did. I agree.
PARKER: I could see a scenario where the rules committee decides to seat Florida and Michigan but only on a second ballot.
ROBERTS: Wow.
PARKER: Because we can't figure out what to do on a first ballot and that's a lot of pressure.
ROBERTS: Do you want to wait till the convention? I mean, if you aren't settled based on I guess your read of who's the most electable based on the economy, if you haven't made up your mind by the convention, could you see waiting that long, or do you think you'll make up your mind before that?
PARKER: It could happen. I mean, we've got historic president, you have to go way back, but Roosevelt was nominated on the fourth ballot. Obviously, the party came together in 1932. Then, you had to have two-thirds. They changed that in '36 to go to 50 percent.
ROBERTS: That was way back before these things were covered 24 hours a day by the media, in blogs and the Internet and all that. Can you still do that? Can you wait until the convention and then unite the party or as Chris Dodd says as I asked Frank Sesno about a moment ago. You go into the convention divided, you're handing the election to John McCain.
PARKER: Well, I would hope we'd have more answers on June 4th. If the rules committee gets together May 31st and actually makes a decision, which they've not been able to do on Florida and Michigan, that should give us some insight. You know, you've got a lot of days. You've got 50-some-odd days between the last primary and the convention. I would hope that things could get worked out during that time.
ROBERTS: Well, David, you know who we're calling on June 4th.
PARKER: I'm looking forward to it.
ROBERTS: All right. We'll get with you then. Thanks very much.
PARKER: And the kittens.
ROBERTS: Yes. Good to see you again. Thanks.
PARKER: Take care.
CHO: All right. Here's a quick look at what CNN NEWSROOM is working on for ht top of the hour.
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): See these stories in the CNN NEWSROOM. Barack Obama increases his delegate lead over Hillary Clinton after Tuesday's primaries. Aid begins to trickle into Myanmar. A million people may be homeless from a cyclone.
Fire at a Texas University. Russia's new president sworn in. And a soldier accidentally phones home from war during the middle of a firefight.
NEWSROOM just minutes away at the top of the hour on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I want people in these upcoming states to know we're going to work hard to reach out to all of you because we want you to know that the Democratic Party is your party. And a Democratic president will be good for you. So, please come join us in our campaign. And I am running to be the president of all of America, north, south, east, and west and everywhere in between. That's why it is so important that we count the votes of Florida and Michigan.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHO: So, on this critical day after North Carolina and Indiana, a final check of our "quick vote." We ask is there any way Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic nomination? 23 percent of you say yes, 77 percent of you say no.
ROBERTS: And we heard from many of you on this issue via e-mail. John in Franklinton, North Carolina e-mailed us to say "my reply is yes, she can. Do not forget the political machine and the arm twisting that will be done. The superdelegates will be swayed to her side by the machine and the pressure. I do not think that she is out of it by a long shot. And fair or not, she will be the person running for president.
CHO: We also heard from Nancy in Erie, Pennsylvania, she writes, "Barack Obama is winning and he is winning fair and square. What is wrong with everyone? She has lost by the numbers since when doesn't that count?"
ROBERTS: Laura in San Antonio, Texas writes us to say, "Did Obama get all of his 2,025 last night? He hasn't won. Do you expect to watch three-quarters of football? How about half of a basketball game during the conference's finals.
CHO: Oh, it's good to have a sports analogy there and a little less optimistic.
Glenn from Moses Lake, Washington writes "Is there anyone that Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic nomination, sure when kegs fly."
Always great to hear from you.
ROBERTS: Spirited discussion this morning. That's right. It also take discussion this morning. Thanks all so much for writing this morning.
CHO: And thanks so much for joining us on this AMERICAN MORNING.
ROBERTS: I can't believe it's over already. Four hours went so fast.
CHO: Four hours.
