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Campbell Brown
10,000 Feared Dead in China Earthquake; Clinton's Strategy
Aired May 12, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: And there is breaking news in to CNN to report to you right now.
There is a new death count in the number of people killed in this morning's earthquake in China, 10,000, that number coming now from Chinese government officials. Just minutes ago, those same officials told CNN they found what they say are several thousand people killed or buried at a single factory in Sichuan province. Much of the area is in rubble right now. Dawn is breaking there now. The toll is expected to rise as rescue workers reach those devastated areas.
And CNN's own John Vause is one of the few international journalists who has been able to get into the area. And he's joining me now by phone.
And, John, I know you have spent the day trying to get to the epicenter. Describe to us what you're seeing.
JOHN VAUSE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Campbell, we're making our way slowly there, but much like the rescue crews, it is a difficult and long journey.
Many of the roads have been damaged because of the earthquake. What we have seen, though, as we have been traveling for the last couple of hours is really just thousands of people who are too afraid to go back indoors. They're sleeping on the side of the road, in parks, on sidewalks.
And as dawn breaks here, it is now starting to rain, and that will no doubt make a very difficult job downright miserable for the thousands of soldiers who have now been mobilized to help rescue those who have survived this quake -- Campbell.
BROWN: And, John, China's leader, Hu Jintao, immediately sent his top officials to those affected areas. This is something that they rarely do there. It was kind of remarkable, in fact.
What are the Chinese people being told about what happened? And are officials, do you think, being forthcoming?
VAUSE: Well, there has been a lot of information coming out on the Xinhua News Agency, China's official state-run news service.
What must be said, though, is when Wen Jiabao, China's prime minister, has done this before. He took personal charge of the snowstorm crisis back in February. This government is very sensitive to allegations or criticism that it doesn't act quickly enough, it does not do enough during these kinds of efforts.
And an indication of that, China has now mobilized more than 40,000 troops from the people's Liberation Army. That -- those troops, some are being airlifted, some are coming in trains. Many are already on the scene right now.
BROWN: All right, John Vause reporting for us tonight -- John, thank you.
And we will be checking back in with John when we do have more information to tell you about.
And we should say that there have been a series of deadly natural disasters over the last few days. To find out how you can help victims of the Chinese earthquake, the Myanmar cyclone, and the tornadoes here in the Midwest, just log on to our Impact Your World page at CNN.com/impact for more information.
And now we do want to turn back to the race for the White House and what might be the most important milestone of the Democratic campaign. For the first time, Barack Obama has overtaken Hillary Clinton in the number of superdelegates in the official CNN delegate count.
Hillary Clinton is admitting tonight that she is -- quote -- "marching to the beat" of her own drummer.
So, tonight, we are not telling what you to make of all this, but we are asking the tough questions. Why does Hillary Clinton continue, and what if any scenario could turn things around to give Senator Clinton the nomination?
I'm going to start right after we catch up with all the candidates. Here's the view now from 30,000 feet.
John McCain is concentrating on the environment. Today, he visited a wind turbine company in Oregon. Senator Barack Obama is visiting states where he's expected to lose the next two primaries, West Virginia tomorrow and Kentucky next week. Oregon also has a primary in a week. And Bill Clinton is making five stops there today. Chelsea Clinton is campaigning in Kentucky.
But, tonight, all eyes are on Senator Clinton in West Virginia. As you see here, the polls open 6:30 tomorrow morning. That is 10- and-a-half-hours from now.
And, as this clock counts, Senator Clinton is expected to win by a landslide in West Virginia tomorrow. And if you believe the polls like this one which gives her a 43-point lead, it is going to be a blowout.
At campaign stops, Clinton is telling West Virginia voters that tomorrow is their chance to send a message to the rest of the Democratic Party. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The goal is to nominate someone who can beat John McCain in November. That's what we have got to do.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't believe that I could be the best president for West Virginia and America and that I was the stronger candidate to take on John McCain in the fall and make sure we have a Democrat in the White House.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Jessica Yellin is with Senator Clinton in Fairmont, West Virginia.
And, Jessica, the Clinton campaign says, as you know, that she is staying in the race until the end of the primary season. We're going to get into the numbers a little bit later on. But suffice it to say that they're not on her side. The Clintons know this. So, bottom- line it for us all. What does Hillary want?
JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, that is the big question, isn't it, Campbell?
And right now Senator Clinton, frankly, is not talking to very many people. It's possible only Bill knows what she's really thinking right now.
Now, in the realm of rumor, there's a lot of talk. Does she want to be obviously vice president? Some rumors have it that she wants to be offered the vice presidency, just so she can turn it down. But in the real world, what Senator Clinton needs is first to have help paying down her debt. And, really, she's looking for some leverage right now. Those who are closest to her, Campbell, say that what they believe she wants is to get Michigan and Florida counted and to really make history, to be able to have her name up on the scoreboard as the first woman who broke this glass ceiling, ran seriously for president, competed in either every primary or almost every primary, and had as high a popular vote total as possible.
So, she's really looking at her legacy and possibly at 2012 right now -- Campbell.
BROWN: And, Jessica, I know that you're competing with Senator Clinton, we should mention, and the crowd behind her.
But, if you can, over the weekend, the Clinton campaign acknowledged that it's about $20 million in debt. So, how are the Clintons going to keep the campaign afloat when they're so strapped for cash?
YELLIN: Right. And, you know, when a campaign admits to a certain number -- a figure in debt, it's usually much worse than that. So, who knows how serious her debt really is.
The bottom line on that is, look, when she gets out, if she gets out at some point, she can certainly find a way to raise the money or have the Obama campaign help her pay it off. And at this point, she is not pulling back on spending.
I can tell you -- and we have this first -- Chelsea Clinton is headed to Puerto Rico tomorrow. She will be campaigning in Puerto Rico for her mother through Thursday. So, the Clinton campaign still spending money and still looking ahead to the primary as far away as June 1 -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right. Jessica Yellin for us tonight at a very loud rally -- Jessica, thanks. Appreciate it.
We are turning now to Barack Obama. He has basically conceded that tomorrow's going to be a bad day for him. But I'm going to play something for you now, and listen to how he's already beginning to pivot away from that and to look further down the road.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I understand that many more here in West Virginia will probably support Senator Clinton.
(BOOING)
OBAMA: This is true. No, no, I...
(LAUGHTER)
OBAMA: But, when it's over, what will unify us as Democrats and what must unify us as Americans is an unyielding commitment to the men and women who have served this nation.
(VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Senator Obama has moved on to Kentucky, which votes next week.
And our Suzanne Malveaux is with his campaign in Louisville.
And, Suzanne, the Obama campaign clearly changing strategy now. They're in general election mode already, aren't they?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, absolutely right. I mean, we heard the message today, not a single bad word about Senator Clinton.
In his speech, he said she was smart, intelligent, formidable opponent. He is clearly trying to reach out to the Clinton supporters already. He is also looking ahead at his fight with John McCain, certainly needing all of his firepower for him.
He had said before that the McCain camp is going to try to make this about him, the general election. So, he said, hey, if it's about me, let me tell you about me. And then he goes on to talk about the biography, his life biography, his story about being a son of a teenage mother, being -- hardship, the times that he had as a young adult, those type of things.
And then it's not just important where he is saying it, what he is saying. Obviously, he's not only looking at these six primary contests, but he's also looking ahead, as you said. Those states are going to be critical in the general election.
We're talking about Missouri in the days to come, the state that President Bush took in 2000 and 2004, and also Florida and Michigan. He's not waiting around for the Rules Committees to decide one way or the other. He's going to be campaigning in those critical general election states. He's ignored them for the last nine months for breaking the rules.
Well, they admit they are quite behind in those states. They have got some ground to catch up on with their organization on the ground. That's where they're going to be in the weeks to come -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right, Suzanne, I know, quickly, Obama challenged McCain on a new issue today. And this was McCain's refusal to support a new G.I. Bill for veterans returning home from the war. Why is this issue -- or why, rather, is this an issue, and what kind of opening does Obama see here?
MALVEAUX: Well, obviously, they recognize that McCain's greatest strength is really the fact that he is a war veteran, that he's a champion of veterans.
They see that, and so they want to really kind of knock it down from the beginning. That's why we see this bitter battle taking place already over the G.I. Bill, what that means to veterans. He says that McCain is not generous enough with this. McCain is countering that that is not in fact the case.
So, you see that happening. He's taking on the whole issue of patriotism, as well as he's trying to highlight, Campbell, his own family's military history. He's up against a formidable opponent when it comes to his status as a war hero. So, he's talking about the service of his grandfather and the fact that he is a patriot.
These are all the things that they feel are going to be vulnerabilities in the general election. They have already started. They feel like they have already wasted enough time. They're not saying Hillary Clinton's out of the race officially, but they want to move on -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right, thanks, Suzanne.
Suzanne Malveaux for us tonight.
Hillary Clinton says it's all about November, but right now it's all about the superdelegates. How exactly will they vote and how does it really work?
Coming up in a moment: John King and his magic board and how Obama can seal the deal.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Tonight, we are taking a hard look at this question: Is there any scenario where Senator Clinton could still win the nomination? And we're also looking at her argument that she would be the stronger candidate against Senator John McCain in November.
And we have got chief national correspondent John King here with his magic board.
John, we are expecting, according to the polls, for her to win, you know, a blowout essentially in West Virginia tomorrow. But look beyond West Virginia. He essentially has this nomination locked up, right?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Not locked up, but he's very, very close.
BROWN: Almost.
KING: There is a mathematical possibility. So, let's start here, just showing people how close he is.
The red line is the finish line. This is Barack Obama here. You see that's all he needs. And you see Senator Clinton. She needs 70 percent of the remaining delegates available to her. So, it is a much, much harder hill for her to climb.
Now let's come back to the election map. She is expected to win big tomorrow, and she's hoping to win, Campbell, in such a convincing way that it makes a point. What she wants to show is, look, these are white working-class voters. This state used to be a Democratic state, but look what happened if we go back in time to 2004.
George W. Bush won this state. The red is Republican. What Hillary Clinton wants to say is, you need to nominate me, because not only in West Virginia -- let's pull the map back out -- in all of these places, too. And let's actually use looking at '04. That will help you that way.
What Hillary Clinton is saying is that, I won Pennsylvania. I can keep that. I won Ohio, Indiana. I'm going to win Kentucky and West Virginia. I can put this in play. She will also argue she gets Latino voters and she can put this in play.
So, Barack Obama has a counterargument, but her last argument is, I'm better general election candidate and. And this is what she uses to prove the point.
BROWN: All right, but he says he can get all these people back come November. KING: He does say he can get them back come November. And let's stick with -- let's go up here now to an electoral map, and let's put up to you -- let's do an Obama-McCain side by side, OK?
This is based on the last election. This is the number of electoral votes Bush received, the number Kerry received, the blue Democrat, the red Republican for states. Barack Obama says he can get them back. But let's accept the Clinton argument for a minute and say Barack Obama can't win Pennsylvania. That one would switch over to John McCain. Barack Obama would have a hard time in New Hampshire under that scenario. John McCain says he will also have a hard time out here in Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Look at what has happened here. McCain has come out and done this. The Obama campaign disputes this, Campbell, disputes this, but also says, even if that is the case, you know what? I will come out here and play around in the Southwest, New Mexico and Nevada. I can put Colorado on the map by bringing in new voters. I will get Missouri back. I will bring Florida back. Looking at that, they're -- a very competitive race here.
So, in the end, we're going to end up fighting over a number of states, something like this, eight or 10 swing states in the end, where Obama says, maybe I lose some states Clinton would win, but I will get some states that Clinton can't win.
It is the debate back and forth. Remember, it's May. Right now, Senator Clinton says, I'm a stronger general election candidate. The Obama campaign counters by saying, I'm bringing new voters in. I have a pretty good map, too.
BROWN: OK. You have the best map of all.
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: John King -- thanks, John.
So, how does this history-making Democratic primary campaign finally end? Like any other good story, Tom Foreman tells us, at the moment, there are three possible endings. And that is coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: After the inauguration and the ceremonies and the dancing and everything is over, the president goes into that Oval Office. There are no cameras there, don't have any bright lights, no crowds. And it's the president all by herself.
(LAUGHTER)
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Hillary Clinton is certainly sounding like she intends to stay in the race.
And a new ABC News/"Washington Post" poll shows that more than 60 percent of Democrats want her to stay in. And get this: 42 percent of Barack Obama's supporters want Clinton to stay in the race, but only 39 percent of the Democrats want her to be Obama's running mate.
So, how and when does this battle come to an end?
Tom Foreman joins me now with a look at Hillary Clinton's options.
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This is playing out like a big- budget Hollywood thriller.
BROWN: Yes, it is.
(CROSSTALK)
FOREMAN: So, we thought we would go to the Democratic Cineplex to take a look at some of the options here.
And option number one is an option that an awful lot of the Democrats would like to see and who support her. They would like her to force a win. They want her to keep fighting all the way through the final states, racking up enough popular votes to draw close to Obama. And, simultaneously, they're hoping that he could get into trouble, some big terrible scandal of some sort, and the superdelegates could decide that maybe he can't beat John McCain, and then she gets the nomination.
That's one possibility, Campbell.
BROWN: OK. But some Clinton supporters might think that that is still possible and wish that that would wish that that would happen. But at this point, that sounds look a real long shot.
FOREMAN: Yes, it's a long shot because neither one of the campaigns want it. Right now, what the campaigns are saying is basically that they feel like they're ready to go forward with the race as it is, which makes us look at possibility number two.
And when you look at the possibility of number two, it's the idea that maybe, if she were to stay in this and keep fighting it all the way out, pointing out his potential weaknesses, things that he's not so strong on, maybe with the blue-collar vote, maybe with older Democrats, that possibly she can convince enough superdelegates to get worried it to say, you really need to take her as your vice president. Again, that's something that doesn't look real strong right now.
BROWN: But both candidates -- yes, they're all throwing cold water on that pretty much, yes?
FOREMAN: Absolutely. Both camps are saying, look, how's he going to be in a White House with Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton? That's going to be a very tough role to have. And, at the same time, she's not really ready to call him Mr. President yet. So, that brings us up to option number three, which is still full of upsides and downsides. This is basically a surrender. What if she were to just campaign a few more weeks all the way to the convention maybe, but with far fewer attacks or sharp criticisms of Obama, and she and her husband, the former president, recover some of the luster, some of the sheen and admiration of many Democrats who have been a little bit put by this hardball politics?
That's all about the future. That's another possible play for her.
BROWN: OK. So, what is the likeliest ending for this thriller, if you will?
FOREMAN: Oh, boy, the likeliest. Who knows?
BROWN: I know.
FOREMAN: The vice presidential one does not look good right now. People talk about it, but that sounds more like people on the outside talking in about the campaign, what they wish would happen.
The campaigns are not talking about that so much. The idea of an all-out sort of Armageddon war to the end, that doesn't also look likely, because these are all practical politicians. Some version of saving face, for having a strong exit, that gives her a say in the policy of the next administration might be what they would hope for most, if they can't find a way to win this.
BROWN: All right. And, finally, she's got a lot of debt to deal with here.
FOREMAN: Boy, does she, yes.
BROWN: From what we're hearing about from them, some $20 million.
FOREMAN: That's the problem when these films run over budget.
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: Yes.
FOREMAN: Yes, the problem is, under the most peaceful agreements, Obama could very well help her retire that debt. They could raise a lot of money together, and the debt would be gone very quickly.
If she goes with a non-peaceful exit or she fights him to the bitter end, then she's pretty much going to be on her own to pick up the tab.
BROWN: All right. Tom Foreman -- thanks, Tom, appreciate it.
So, we do want to get our panel's take on all of this, having just heard from Tom, Clinton's most likely exit strategy if she were in fact to drop out.
And I should mention I'm joined now by some of the best political observers in America. We have got Katrina, who is editor of "The Nation," Mark Halperin, "TIME" magazine editor at large and senior political analyst, and Ari Fleischer, President Bush's former press secretary.
Welcome to everybody.
KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL, EDITOR, "THE NATION": Thank you.
BROWN: So, Mark, let me start with you. What do you think the most likely of all those scenarios? Do you think Tom is on the mark there?
MARK HALPERIN, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST, "TIME": I think Tom laid out some good options.
I think the most likely thing remains that she gets out in the first week of June, either after all the contests are done, after the voting has curd, after the DNC has a chance to resolved the disputed delegations from Florida and from Michigan, and after Obama either has or is approaching an absolute mathematical majority of delegates.
BROWN: Katrina?
VANDEN HEUVEL: I agree. I would just bring attention to something that wasn't on the multiplex screen, which is I think the winner so far in this race, which is democracy, 3.5 million newly registered voters, unprecedented turnout. I think that's why Democrats are happy this race goes on.
I think Hillary Clinton has every right to stay through the end of the primaries. Let voters be participants, not spectators. At that point, barring some bolt from a blue sky, she's not going to make it. And...
BROWN: But you would...
VANDEN HEUVEL: And the hope is at this point that she -- because so much is at stake in a country which has been so damaged in these last seven years, that she draws sharp contrasts with McCain and avoids the negatives with some truly troublesome, racially tinged language about this race and Obama.
BROWN: No?
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: You totally disagree?
ARI FLEISCHER, FORMER WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: No, I think we're moving on to a different era in politics. And I think Barack Obama and John McCain are going to do very well representing that era.
But, for Hillary Clinton, you know, this has been really a 50-50 race, essentially, 51-49 race. At the end of June 3, when it's all said and done she's going to end up a few french fries short of a Happy Meal. And I think she's going to graciously bow out. And she's got a future ahead of her as a United States senator. And I think she will make peace with that.
BROWN: But if there were a handful -- it's 150-something superdelegates, right, that if they all got together and said, we're with Obama, this thing would be over tomorrow. Why haven't they? Why haven't they ended it? Why is it that we're seeing this poll that says 60-something percent of the Democrats want this to go on?
(CROSSTALK)
HALPERIN: A lot of the ones who are not committed have in their district or in their state maybe a support for Obama, but 30, 40, maybe 49 percent of their people rabidly for Hillary Clinton.
I think the press has understated the extent of the emotional energy of her supporters as compared to Obama's. No one wants to make angry half their constituents, if they can avoid it.
(CROSSTALK)
FLEISCHER: And what's interesting is, she's going to end hot here. She's go to win five out of six and possibly six out of six, if she can take Oregon. That's going to be a nice finish for her. But then it still won't climb the mountain high enough. She won't have enough delegates. But she will end well.
VANDEN HEUVEL: I don't think she will win that many. And I think tomorrow with West Virginia, what you will hear, Campbell, is a lot of talk about the white working-class vote.
First of all, I think there is a working-class that's not a white working-class vote, which is not talked about. But there is definitely in this country, which has had a history of racism, there is a conversation that is beginning to be had in our media, a very tricky one, that there are concerns about Obama among people who, like in Kentucky or West Virginia, are people who have a -- who have a race concern. And I think we need to talk about this honestly and have a conversation.
BROWN: OK. I want to take a quick break, because I want to talk more about that issue specifically when we come back. Hold it right there.
Up next, we're going to get to that question of race and whether Senator Obama can get beyond this racial divide in a general election -- when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: There, you see it, everything you need to know about the people voting in tomorrow's primary. Hillary Clinton says a big win in West Virginia will help convince Democrats that she is the right choice to face John McCain. Over the weekend, her evil twin, "Saturday Night Live"'s Amy Poehler, offered one very pointed reason for that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE")
AMY POEHLER, ACTRESS: My supporters are racist.
(LAUGHTER)
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
POEHLER: If and when I am the nominee, Senator Obama's African- American supporters will be disappointed, perhaps, but they will still rally to me. If, however, Senator Obama is the nominee, my supporters will refuse to vote for him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: It is a joke, but race has, in fact, as we were just discussing a moment ago, played a big role in this campaign so far.
Let's ask the panel now how much of a factor will it be through November.
Once again, Katrina Vanden Heuvel, Mark Halperin, and Ari Fleischer. And Katrina, I just want you to finish that point.
VANDEN HEUVEL: Yes, if I could.
BROWN: Do you think it is going to be really an issue in November?
VANDEN HEUVEL: Listen, we have come an enormous way in this country. We have a ways to go. I think that Barack Obama -- listen, he won majorities among the white male vote in 10 of 23 states. He did better in Indiana and North Carolina, 34 percent in Indiana, 26 in North Carolina. What he needs to do is bring together the coalition he's put together, which is extraordinary. Young liberals, the African-American vote, and put it together and speak to the white working class which he can appeal to through laser-like focus on the economy and a war, which a majority of white working-class voters have turned against, and draw a sharp contrast with McCain.
BROWN: Let me ask you guys about another issue, though, that could be I guess an issue in this campaign. And it's the "Wall Street Journal" former Clinton pollster, Doug Schoen, gave Obama some tips on how to expand his appeal. And he said that he must "start wearing the flag lapel pin. He simply cannot afford to raise doubts about his patriotism." Or sorry. What did I say? Lapel pin. Lapel. Thank you.
And that today I think Obama, lo and behold, is now wearing a pin on his lapel. Ari?
FLEISCHER: Well, I think it's too late.
BROWN: You know a lot about this.
FLEISCHER: It's symbolism. But it's too late for Barack Obama to wear the flag pin without getting questions about it, raising the issue again. What I object to is not that he doesn't wear it. Everybody has a right to dress as they want, but he disparaged those who do. He said the people who wear it, it's a false patriotism. That's what I didn't like.
BROWN: I'm not aware of that.
FLEISCHER: When he -- he apparently when he explained why he wasn't wearing it, he said to wear it strikes me as a false patriotism. There's other ways to express your patriotism, and that was his explanation.
(CROSSTALK)
VANDEN HEUVEL: He didn't indict all of them, did he, Mark?
HALPERIN: He did.
FLEISCHER: He disparaged people who wear it. That's the part that I think rings false.
VANDEN HEUVEL: But he --
FLEISCHER: And that's why a lot of this isn't racial, it's values. It's things that he says that for a lot of people, cops, firemen who wear the flag every day on their sleeve, they don't like to hear that.
VANDEN HEUVEL: He was talking about politicians who don't support the veterans through a GI Bill which, by the way, John McCain is not supporting. The measure of -- the measure of how you value...
(CROSSTALK)
FLEISCHER: No, he was asked why you don't wear a pin and that was his explanation. It was a straightforward question.
VANDEN HEUVEL: ... your veterans is funding for their education and health care which is in part --
FLEISCHER: That's not what he said.
VANDEN HEUVEL: But he went on.
FLEISCHER: That's not what he said.
(CROSSTALK)
VANDEN HEUVEL: He went on to qualify it talking about those inside Washington.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: All right, Mark. Coming at from perhaps a more objective --
HALPERIN: They're both a little -- they're both a little right to tell you the truth.
BROWN: Put it in context and give them the full context.
HALPERIN: Look, he's run a great campaign. He has built a great coalition of sorts to win this nomination. But the biggest challenge any Democrat faces in getting elected is winning enough white vote. Senator Clinton spoke imprecisely and unfortunately to "USA Today" last week. That ties her hands a little bit tomorrow.
After these returns come in, though it's going to be striking is how poorly he does, badly outspending her with the press telling people in West Virginia the race is over. She is going to stomp him, and the question is why not in a state that doesn't matter in a general election. This is a battleground state the Democrats would like to win.
And again, I've been asking and looking for the answer for two weeks. Why can't the national front-runner compete in West Virginia? The answers are not pretty when you think about how he's going to win the general election.
VANDEN HEUVEL: But the governor of West Virginia said the other day that Obama would win in a general election. As you well know, Mark, sometimes these primaries -- Bill Clinton lost 13 primaries and won those states. I believe that's right in the general.
HALPERIN: As a weakened candidate. This guy is on the precipice of being the Democratic nominee with more money than anyone has ever had to spend, and he can't even say he'll compete. He's now saying, well, Bill Clinton's right. I'm going to get -- I'm going to get 20 percent of the vote.
BROWN: All right.
HALPERIN: He'd better get more than 20 percent.
BROWN: We've got to end it there. Katrina, Mark, and Ari, thanks to all of you. Appreciate it.
Women are among Hillary Clinton's strongest supporters, so how will they vote if she doesn't win the nomination? Tonight on "AC 360," Erica Hill does some asking and listening. Here's a quick preview.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ERICA HILL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Just by a show of hands, how many of you ladies would vote for Barack Obama if in fact he was the nominee?
Georgiana (ph), you're not quite sure. Are you a maybe?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I would vote for the Democratic nominee whomever that person is.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm really in a dilemma. I can't believe that I would vote Republican.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You'd either probably not vote or vote for McCain.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think that there are a lot of people out there who are more enthralled by the idea of Barack Obama than they actually are by the ideas of Barack Obama.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: More from women voters tonight at 10:00 Eastern on "AC 360."
And when we return on ELECTION CENTER, a five-year-old secret explodes in public and wreaks havoc on the lives of everyone around a veteran congressman. That story next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Vito Fossella puts a new twist on the idea of having it all. The truth is he had too much. In addition to his public life as a congressman with a wife and three children, Fossella also had a secret life which is now big news.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN (voice-over): The romance reportedly blossomed five years ago. A man and a woman connect on a congressional trip to Europe. For years they kept it a secret, but it exploded into public view not far from the congressman's office.
REP. VITO FOSSELLA (R), NEW YORK: It was around midnight, and it was in Virginia.
BROWN: May 1st, Republican Congressman Vito Fossella from Staten Island in New York is pulled over by the cops in Alexandria, Virginia just over the river from Washington, D.C. He has an explanation. He tells police he's rushing to pick up his sick daughter, but he also fails the roadside sobriety test.
And the double life of Vito Fossella starts to unravel. He has apologized for the drunk driving arrest.
FOSSELLA: I hope that in the coming weeks, my family, the residents of this great community will forgive this error, and they will forgive me.
BROWN: But that's only a small part of this story. Fossella has a wife and three children, but the sick daughter he mentioned to police, her mother is the woman Fossella reportedly traveled Europe with. She is also the woman who picked him up after his DUI arrest. She's retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Laura Fay.
Fossella met Fay on Capitol Hill, where she was the air force liaison to the House of Representatives.
REP. JOHN BOEHNER, HOUSE MINORITY LEADER: Mr. Fossella is going to have some decisions to make over the weekend.
BROWN: Fossella has been in Congress 10 years and apparently for half that time, a very public figure has had a very private second life.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: According to a spokesperson, Fossella is now at home in New York with his family deciding his future. Now, Vito Fossella's not the only politician with a secret life. In fact, we've seen a lot of them recently. So why do they do it? Our experts weigh in when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: As we told you, we still don't know the political future of Congressman Vito Fossella, who has a wife and three children at home in New York, plus a girlfriend and a child in Washington. But that did get us thinking about the stagecraft of handling sex scandals. So for that, we brought in CNN senior analyst Jeff Toobin. Who's better, really --
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: All right.
BROWN: Right? So help us make sense. Or can we make sense of how one politician survives a sex scandal and then another doesn't?
TOOBIN: Well, we have a little bit of a guide here. Now, we were going to do all the recent sex scandals but your show is only an hour. So we're going to just do five of them here.
Now, we're going to start with Jim McGreevey. Jim McGreevey was former governor of New Jersey...
BROWN: Right.
TOOBIN: ... who was caught hiring as a Homeland Security aide a guy he said was his lover. And one of the first questions you always have to answer is do you admit it? And he did admit it.
BROWN: Yes.
TOOBIN: He admitted that they were involved. And did he survive in office? Alas, no.
BROWN: No.
TOOBIN: He didn't make it. OK.
Next, David Vitter, the senator from Louisiana who admitted to being involved somehow with the escort service.
BROWN: Of course. Right. TOOBIN: And so, he admitted it too.
BROWN: Right.
TOOBIN: So far, he has survived in office.
BROWN: Now, what's the difference between Vitter and McGreevey?
TOOBIN: Well, see this what --
BROWN: You'll get to that.
TOOBIN: We'll get there. OK.
BROWN: OK. But let's talk about Larry Craig because Larry Craig, you do admit, he initially seemed to admit it, but then he sort of took it back.
TOOBIN: I think he basically didn't admit it. His story for public consumption, even though he pleaded guilty in court outside Minneapolis, is he said that he just had a wide stance and it was really all a big misunderstanding.
BROWN: Yes.
TOOBIN: So we're going to say he did not admit it.
BROWN: OK.
TOOBIN: And so far, he has actually survived in office. That brings us to our former governor, Eliot Spitzer, who did admit being in a prostitution ring.
BROWN: Right.
TOOBIN: But he did not survive in office. And, you know, here I think we need to draw like some lessons from each one.
BROWN: Yes.
TOOBIN: McGreevey, his big problem, public money was used. That's different from sexual misconduct, because he paid his boyfriend with government funds.
BROWN: So that's why you can't survive that.
TOOBIN: That's right. David Vitter, very vague. Also, a reelection campaign many years in the future. So he got to sort of push the decision down.
Larry Craig, this is just bizarre, frankly. I mean, his attitude is simply brazenness. Now, I think we can say that Craig would not have been reelected, but he is, it looks like, going to serve out his term.
BROWN: Brazenness is a strategy. TOOBIN: Brazenness is a strategy. Eliot Spitzer. The lesson here is you need friends, and he didn't have any in Albany. Nobody came to his defense. Which brings us to the man of the hour --
BROWN: So how does Vito survive?
TOOBIN: Well, he has admitted it.
BROWN: Yes.
TOOBIN: And I think what you're seeing with him is kind of a modified David Vitter strategy, which is basically delay. Admit in a kind of general way and hope that the storm passes, and maybe by the time the 2008 election comes around, everybody is so involved in McCain and Obama that on Staten Island, where his district is centered, they will sort of say oh, well, he got into some big trouble but he's a Republican, we're going to vote for him.
BROWN: Right. All right, Jeff Toobin.
TOOBIN: That's our country. You know what?
BROWN: How much time did you spend coming up with this chart?
TOOBIN: Well, we love -- we love this chart. But the thing -- the challenge in this chart was making it small enough because we've got, you know, there's no Bill Clinton here.
BROWN: I know, I know, I know. Jeff Toobin, appreciate it.
TOOBIN: All right.
BROWN: Thanks, Jeff.
So I want you to listen to what these politicians said after their deceptions became public.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. JIM MCGREEVEY (D), NEW JERSEY: I asked their forgiveness and the grace of my wife.
SEN. DAVID VITTER (R), LOUISIANA: And I'm so very, very sorry.
SEN. LARRY CRAIG (R), IDAHO: To my wife and my family, I apologize for what I have caused. I am deeply sorry.
GOV. ELIOT SPITZER (D), NEW YORK: I've begun to atone for my private failings with my wife Silda, my children and my entire family.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Listening to their remorse makes you wonder even more, what were they thinking as they were living their secret lives and are there certain demons that set a secret life in motion? Well, joining me now is Dr. Gail Saltz, a psychiatrist, who teaches at New York Presbyterian Hospital and she's written several books including "Anatomy of a Secret Life." So Gail, what is it about politicians and sex scandals that go hand in hand? Do they think they're invincible? Is it ego? What is it?
DR. GAIL SALTZ, PSYCHIATRY PROF., NY PRESBYTERIAN HOSPITAL: I think it's a combination of things. First and foremost, truthfully, is when you have an unconscious conflict, in other words, a strong desire to do something immoral that you've kept unconscious. So you haven't explored or examined it and you can use denial to do something called splitting.
I'm not really that bad guy who wants to whatever it is, sleep with a prostitute, have another family, you know, we can have a long list.
BROWN: Right.
SALTZ: I'm really a good guy. I'm really a politician. I'm saving the world. I'm doing good things. It's a strategy that people use.
You combine that with narcissism which, you know, frankly, a lot of people who acquire power and are used to hearing yes, you can do this, you know, think that they can get away with a lot of things. And then you also add to it a high risk taker, somebody who temperamentally from birth, really, is hard-wired to be a risk-taking kind of person. And a lot of those people are drawn to politics.
It suits them. It helps them to do well in glad-handing and putting themselves out there and doing what they need to do to be a politician.
BROWN: Right.
SALTZ: But the down side is they still are a risk taker.
BROWN: I want to ask you about the other thing we saw in all of these stories. And we've seen this before with Silda Spitzer, where she stood by her man after Governor Spitzer admitted his ties to this prostitution ring.
SALTZ: Yes.
BROWN: I think we have some video of this. And in this case, Congresswoman Fossella's wife Mary Pat, she sat in the audience of his press (ph) basically remaining out of sight. What's the idea? And what's going on in the minds of these wives and these women as they make these decisions?
SALTZ: Right. I would say they are probably infinite. You can't say there's one thing. You know, it depends on the quality of the marriage, how betrayed that person feels, how much of an inkling the person actually may have had. And I could tell you that in some of these stories, there was some knowledge, you know, that was denied because it suited them for whatever their reasons might be to allow to some degree some of it to happen.
BROWN: Right.
SALTZ: And at the same time, you know, I think people really judged Mrs. Spitzer very harshly for standing there. But you know, you don't know until you're in that boat what it feels to lose your entire marriage, your entire plans for the future, and somebody who is the father of your children. And so, it's really much more complicated than, you know, should you stand there, should you not stand there.
BROWN: All right. Dr. Gail Saltz, interesting stuff. Thanks, appreciate it.
SALTZ: My pleasure.
BROWN: And still ahead, a stop at the delegate desk because there's an important change in the superdelegate numbers. That's coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: One great interviewer deserves another. So you won't want to miss what's coming up at the top of the hour. Larry King's main guest is Barbara Walters tonight. So what are you going to ask her, Larry?
LARRY KING, HOST, "LARRY KING LIVE": Thanks. Thanks, Campbell. We're going to go public. She's gone public with her private life. So we'll get into it, too.
You can, by the way, head to our Web site right now, CNN.com/LarryKing. Cast your vote. Tell us what you're most interested in in hearing Barbara talk about, and we'll cover as much territory as possible, Campbell.
Plus, John Edwards is here, and we'll get his take on Clinton and Obama and he'll tell us about his new anti-poverty initiative. That's "LARRY KING LIVE" right after, Campbell, top of the hour.
BROWN: All right, Larry. We'll be watching then.
In just a minute, Tom Foreman is back in the delegate desk. Now that Barack Obama leads in superdelegates, how does he bring in the rest of the undecideds? That when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: As you heard earlier for the first time, Barack Obama has taken the lead, at least for the moment, in the superdelegate count. So can he hold the advantage? Tom Foreman's doing the math at the delegate desk for us tonight. Tom, what have you got?
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Campbell, for the first time ever Barack Obama can say that he's leading in all the numbers -- the popular vote, the number of states won, the money raised, but more importantly, the numbers that really matter, the numbers that are said to decide the nomination, the number of delegates won in all these primaries and caucuses and the superdelegate count too. You can see them there.
The total for Obama now, 1,869. The total for Clinton, 1,697. The superdelegate count is really important here. Look at the difference of four votes.
Four more superdelegates. Those party bigwigs who get to pick whomever they want for the nominee jumped on the Obama bandwagon today including Hawaii Senator Daniel Akaka and Representative Tom Allen of Maine.
We must note, however, this is a highly fluid situation. Obama and Clinton are running so close in this category. At any given hour, that lead could shift again. So take these numbers with a grain of salt right now.
But the trend is the problem for Clinton. Back in January look at this, she led Obama by more than 100 superdelegates. By mid March, her lead was down to about 30. And now, he's edged ahead by just a few.
Again, the number could change on little notice, but it's a symbolic and important milestone -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right. Tom Foreman for us. Tom, thanks.
So how does Obama seal the deal with the undecided superdelegates? Let's take that into the "War Room." With us tonight, Democratic strategist Chris Lehane, who is former press secretary for Al Gore's 2000 presidential campaign, Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, and Republican strategist Leslie Sanchez, who is a CNN contributor. Welcome to everybody.
Chris, I'll start with you. As Tom Foreman just reported, Obama's got pretty powerful math working in his favor. So how does he harness it to really close the deal with the remaining uncommitted superdelegates?
CHRIS LEHANE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think over the next seven to 10 days he needs to avoid this becoming a protracted discussion about whether he can or cannot achieve success with the working-class white Democrats, which is obviously going to center in focal point of discussion over the last few days. I think he needs to go to some of these states where he can expand the electoral map.
Go to Georgia, go to South Carolina, go to Colorado. Really make the case that he is a unique candidate that can expand the map, change the narrative going forward and I think that really helps translate the significant momentum he has right now and to really put himself over the top and moving forward.
But he just cannot get trapped in having this discussion about how he does or does not do with these particular voters. He needs to play those strengths. Go to these states, make the case that you're going to win these states, make the case that you're going to change the electoral map.
BROWN: And Leslie, it's getting harder and harder these days to be Hillary Clinton.
LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Right.
BROWN: Is there anything she can do at this point that's a game changer?
SANCHEZ: You know, I think it's interesting is that they make a point of going to these states. West Virginia would have been a nice state for Barack Obama to show up in more than a couple of times.
I think with Hillary Clinton she's waiting for that opportunity. It's the long haul approach, and she's waiting to see if she can make that bank shot to the Democratic nomination. If something goes wrong with the Obama campaign, she's strategically there. It's always been part of the Clinton strategy.
You will think about the fact that, you know, her husband basically got laughed at of a Democratic convention. Four years later, he was the nominee. They know it works for them, and they hope it works again.
BROWN: And let me go to you, Jamal, really quickly to get your comment on what Leslie just said.
JAMAL SIMMONS, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, you know, I think at the end of the day Barack Obama is winning already the superdelegates. The bigger challenge is going to be how does Hillary Clinton finish out the campaign?
Does she finish the campaign as a hero where she can do without incessantly dragged and screamed in endorsing Barack Obama, but she runs toward endorsing Barack Obama, she starts to heal some of the wounds? And I think she'll play a very big role in whether or not this party comes together in time for the convention.
BROWN: All right, guys. Stay there. When we come back, we're going to have pictures from Jenna Bush's wedding. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: And before we go tonight, a quick look at some of the shots of Jenna Bush's wedding. It just happened over the weekend. She's, of course, the daughter of President Bush who got married at the ranch in Texas.
We thought we'd leave you with a tune of the happy wedding couple photos. And Jenna Bush looking lovely there in her gown at the ranch over the weekend.
That's it. "LARRY KING LIVE" starting right now.
