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American Morning
Obama Refers to Himself as the Democratic Presidential Nominee; Dems Fight to the Finish; Sen. Ted Kennedy Rests After Seizure; Myanmar Invites Other Countries to Tour Region
Aired May 19, 2008 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Turning to the "Most Politics in the Morning" and 24 hours now until the next battlegrounds in Kentucky and Oregon. In Portland, Barack Obama was swept away by a sea of supporters. More than 75,000 people, his largest crowd to date.
For Hillary Clinton, the campaigning starts early today. This morning she is in Kentucky, and that's where CNN's Suzanne Malveaux is live from the state capital in Frankfort.
Suzanne, good morning to you. Barack Obama nowhere to be seen there in the Bluegrass State?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: He's actually in Montana looking ahead to the next couple of contests. But what we're seeing here is that Clinton is really determined to show that her big win in West Virginia was not a fluke while Barack Obama is trying to show people he is ready to move beyond the primary to the general election, announcing even this weekend that his victory rally on Tuesday is going to be in Iowa, where he became the Democratic front-runner to beat.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX (voice-over): While Hillary Clinton tried to appear unfazed about Barack Obama all but ignoring her.
SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I am proud to be campaigning in Kentucky. Now, my opponent said the other day he wasn't coming back so I've got the whole state to myself. What a sweep.
MALVEAUX: The battle for the Democratic nomination soldiers on. Clinton in Kentucky, another state she's favored to win. Obama in Oregon where he's favored.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you.
MALVEAUX: Over the weekend, Obama got even closer to the nomination, continuing to pick up more delegates. While Clinton insists she's staying in the race until the very last contests, for use of the past tense raised eyebrows. Instead of saying when I am president, as she has asserted in the past, she says --
CLINTON: And if I were president, that's exactly what I would do. MALVEAUX: Between ice cream stops and a visit to a senior center, Obama bypassed Clinton addressing voters issues concerning health care, jobs and energy. He also defended his willingness to talk to adversarial leaders without preconditions.
OBAMA: Because George Bush and John McCain have suggested that me being willing to sit down with our adversaries is a sign of weakness, is a sign of appeasement. Understand that George Bush had a policy of not talking to North Korea and not talking to Iran, and over the last eight years they are stronger as a consequence of George Bush foreign policies. All right. So their way has not worked.
MALVEAUX: For his part, Republican John McCain took a break from campaigning, instead poking fun at himself and his age on "Saturday Night Live."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE")
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Controlling government spending isn't just about Republicans or Democrats. It's about being able to look your children in the eye or in my case, my children, grandchildren, great grandchildren, great-great grandchildren, and great-great-great grandchildren, the youngest of whom are nearing retirement.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: Well, John, it's not over until it's over, but there certainly is a sense of inevitability here. I talked about Clinton's language. I want you to take a close listen to what Barack Obama said before voters late yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: Let's face it. Nobody's thought a 46-year-old black guy named Barack Obama was going to be the Democratic nominee.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: That's the first time we heard, John, where he actually said that he will become the Democratic nominee. Now, having said that, Barack Obama also told reporters that he is not going to be declaring victory on Tuesday after those contests, but he will bring up the fact that at that point he will have the majority of the pledged delegates.
The reason they're going to make a big deal out of that is they're going to take back to the superdelegates, the party officials, and say look, this is the will of the people. The people have spoken. It's time to take a stand, to move over to his side. So we'll see how all of that plays out. But obviously, a very confident Barack Obama -- John.
ROBERTS: All right. Suzanne Malveaux for us this morning in a foggy Frankfort.
Suzanne, thanks very much.
Former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee made a pitch over the weekend to get on the ticket with John McCain.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There's no one I would rather be on the ticket with than John McCain. Whether or not I do the best for him, that's something that only he can decide. I'm going to support him because I think he's the right person for America.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Huckabee is an ordained Baptist minister who had strong support from religious conservatives in the South. He won primaries in Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and his native Arkansas before dropping out of the race in March.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Senator Ted Kennedy appears to be out of "immediate danger" after suffering a seizure over the weekend. Doctors say that he'll undergo further evaluation over the next couple of days, but preliminary results show that he didn't suffer a stroke as originally feared.
Kennedy was rushed to the hospital on Saturday morning. Senators Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain all expressed their thoughts and prayer for Kennedy from the campaign trail.
As China enters a three-day mourning period for the earthquake victims, there's word of another quake-related disaster. More than 200 relief workers buried over the past three days by mudslides in the earthquake area. China's official news agency says that they were working to repair the roads in Sichuan Province, and it's not known how many of those relief workers were actually killed.
ROBERTS: Still to come, nearly a 100 wildfires are burning right now in Florida and much of south Florida is under a dense smoke advisory. Our Jacqui Jeras is tracking the extreme weather for us this morning.
PHILLIPS: Reverend Franklin Graham taking up his Paris mission in China. Find out why he thinks Christians shouldn't be speaking out during the Olympics. We're live next with him.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Talk of a new Microsoft/Yahoo courtship this morning. Microsoft proposes a transaction with the Internet search giant Yahoo. Less than an hour right (ph) takeover the company, the two companies talked over the weekend about teaming up on searches and advertising. Yahoo rejected Microsoft's $47.5 billion buyout offer earlier this month.
PHILLIPS: OK, driving season kicks off in what? Less than a week?
(CROSSTALK)
ALI VELSHI, CNN SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: No.
PHILLIPS: Driving more? Not driving more?
VELSHI: I think some people are going to start moving out on Thursday. We're going to be driving less for the first time in many, many years. AAA predicts that actually Americans will travel less than they have partially because of oil prices and gas prices and airline fares that have gone up.
We do have a new record once again for the price of gasoline, and it is right -- oh, there we go, it's already there. $3.79, that's the 13th increase.
I'm sorry, my figures are getting broken off for pointing at that thing. Let me tell you a little bit about what's going on. Oil prices were up again to a record on Friday, almost $128, $127 unchanged, after President Bush was rebuffed by Saudi authorities when he asked for more oil to be pumped.
So what happened is the president informed the -- asked the Department of Energy to follow through on what Congress has ordered and that is to stop filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
I'll tell you a bit about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is the world's largest stockpile of emergency fuel. It has -- the oil is stored in four locations on the Gulf of Mexico, two in Texas, two in Louisiana, and they're building another one in Mississippi. It can hold 727 million barrels of oil. The government is authorized by law to hold up to a billion barrels of oil.
Right now, we're at 96 percent capacity. So we were filling it up at the rate of 76,000 barrels a day. That would be a year away from filling it up to the 727 barrels, million barrels.
Now, I'll tell you what this is used for. It's meant to be used for emergencies. It's been used for other things, but it's only been used twice for emergencies. The first time was in Desert Storm in 1991. In 2001, the government decided after the attacks of 9/11 to fill it up to capacity. It was then filled up to capacity by August of 2005.
And then, we used it for Hurricane Katrina to take oil out to give it to the refineries so that they could continue to supply gas. So it's a big issue. It has not had any impact on the price of oil, stopping those additions to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
We spoke to legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens who said that there's really no point in asking the Saudis to pump much more oil. They probably don't have as much as the world thinks. Listen to what he had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) T. BOONE PICKENS, LONGTIME OIL INVESTOR: The Saudis are producing all the oil they can produce. So going to them and asking them to open the spigot, the spigot is open. There's no more.
There's 85 million barrels of oil every day available in the United States and that's all there is. So try and get somebody to produce more, they can't.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: So what we've got right now is no particular decrease in the price of oil. It's about $125 and you can see gas prices continue to go up. By the way, they have touched the petroleum reserve for other reasons to try and, you know, impact the price of oil or --
ROBERTS: In the 2000 election, right?
VELSHI: Yes. So it has been done.
ROBERTS: Not emergency.
VELSHI: Not a national --
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: A political emergency gave more of the difference.
VELSHI: Right.
ROBERTS: Ali, thanks.
PHILLIPS: Rock star crowds, thousands of people turn out to see Barack Obama in Oregon. Find out why he looks like he'll sweep that state with the white voters.
ROBERTS: And Jacqui Jeras tracking the extreme weather for us this morning.
Good morning, Jacqui.
JACQUI JERAS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Hey, good morning, guys. You're not waking up in a haze because you're still dreaming. It is the smoke from the wildfires. We'll have the latest of what's happening in the state of Florida. That's coming up next on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JERAS: Nearly 100 wildfires are burning right now across the state of Florida. The fires have already burned some 40,000 acres. The biggest blaze is in the Everglades and it's created a dense smoke advisory in effect for south Florida. Officials say that Everglades fire is only about 20 percent contained.
Look at that live picture right now from WPLG TV. You can see that haze in the Miami area thickest this morning, but as the winds pick up this afternoon, we'll start to see some improving conditions.
Welcome back.
You know, Miami not alone in feeling the smoke. Much of the state of Florida is really engulfed in it. In fact, the smoke is traveling so far, they could feel the impact of this in Freeport, in the Bahamas. That's well over 100 miles away.
Let's go ahead and take a look at this graphic I got for you from NOAA, which shows you all of the fire hot spots. All of those red dots, that's where the heat signatures are. And there you can see the smoke plumes traveling up towards the north and to the east from where those fires are burning. There's Freeport right about there just to give you an idea.
Now, the wind is not too bad this morning. We've got a little bit of a breeze and that's really helping the situation. If we had no wind at all, we would have really thick smoke with real big problems on the interstates along the Florida turnpike and also the Tamiami trail area.
Showers and thunderstorms up to the north of there, it's really from Sarasota extending down near the Fort Myers area, and some of these storms could be a little bit on the strong side. Today, any kind of moisture certainly a welcome relief but not expecting a lot of rain here in the forecast.
North Florida especially dry so we have red flag warnings in effect there. We also have a lot of heat across parts of the west, guys, today, and more records can be expected, possibly Phoenix as well as Las Vegas -- Kyra and John.
ROBERTS: All right.
PHILLIPS: Thanks, Jacqui.
ROBERTS: Jacqui, than you.
PHILLIPS: One day left until the Kentucky and Oregon primaries. Our Chris Lawrence is in Oregon where Iraq is still the top issue.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We just need to get out of there, and we need to get out of there now.
CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Linda Raley (ph) is a 58- year-old school principal.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm of an age where the thought of having the first female president is very exciting.
LAWRENCE: But she's voting for Obama.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Obama making gains on Hillary Clinton's coalition of women and working class white voters.
ROBERTS: And doctors could learn today what caused Senator Ted Kennedy's seizure over the weekend. Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta headed for surgery in just a few minutes, but stopping by first of all before he goes to the hospital. Good morning, Sanjay.
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John. It can be a frightening thing to watch, someone having a seizure. But what exactly is happening in the brain? What causes it? And most importantly, what can be done about it?
I'll have some answers coming up on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Seventeen minutes now after the hour. Test results today could tell us why Senator Ted Kennedy suffered a seizure over the weekend. He spent a second night at Massachusetts (ph) General in Boston.
Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta has got some surgery of his own lined up this morning, but he stopped in on his way to the hospital. Tell us a little bit more information about Kennedy's condition, what his doctors are looking for. Good morning, Sanjay.
GUPTA: Good morning. You know, they said that he was resting comfortably, watching the Red Sox game. People walked out of his hospital room saying, you know, he's going to be fine.
That's obviously -- those are all positive indicators. They also fit very well with the natural history, John, of someone who's had a seizure. Someone who's had a seizure obviously, it can be a frightening thing to watch, but they often recover from it, return back to a normal level of awareness, or able to move things. The real question as most people might imagine, is what happened here? What exactly caused this?
And one of the sort of tenets, if you will, of medicine, is to rule out bad things first. Was there a tumor? Was this some sort of interruption of blood flow to the brain? Maybe not necessarily a stroke but something like a TIA, which first looked like a seizure or was a seizure, and that was the first way that it actually presented. Or was it something else entirely?
About half the time, John, I think this is important for people to know, about half the time, we may throw up our hands and say, we don't know what caused it. But that's actually good news as long as it wasn't one of those bad things first, John.
ROBERTS: Is it true or untrue, Sanjay, that it doesn't necessarily need to be something actually in the brain that could cause a seizure, that it might be some other condition, stress, electrolyte imbalance or something like that that could do it as well?
GUPTA: Not only is that true, those are probably the more common reasons, John. An electrolyte imbalance is one of the most common ones, and I would imagine they've already looked for that. You know, we've heard that he had lost some significant weight recently. Could he have had low sodium, for example, low salt level in his blood? That could sometimes cause it. An infection elsewhere, somewhere very different than the brain could cause this as well. Head injury, even a remote one. And again, infection as you see there, those are some common causes.
ROBERTS: All right, Sanjay Gupta for us this morning.
Doc, thanks very much for dropping in.
GUPTA: All right.
ROBERTS: I know you've got a heavy schedule in the O.R. today.
GUPTA: Thanks, John.
ROBERTS: So really appreciate you coming in. Thanks.
PHILLIPS: Time now for our "Quick Vote" question this morning. Who will be America's first female president?
Right now, 33 percent of you say it will be Hillary Clinton, 67 percent of you think it will be someone else.
Just head to CNN.com/am to vote. You can also e-mail us. Tell us who you think the first U.S. commander and chief will be and why. Again, just go to CNN.com/am and following the links that say "e-mail us."
ROBERTS: Could more doors be opening in Myanmar today? The country now asking foreign representatives to see the cyclone-hit area firsthand. But is progress really being made?
CNN has got a reporter inside the country this morning.
PHILLIPS: They say he's having trouble with white voters, but tens of thousands came out to see Barack Obama in Oregon. We talked to the voters there to see what's winning them over.
Plus this -- imagine dealing with this at work.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's not a good idea.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's silly.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: But it is happening.
ROBERTS: But what if -- what if -- let's try it one more time. What if every day were bring your baby to work day. See why some think it's a dreadful idea and others say it's just good business. Ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: It's 23 minutes now after the hour. A sign of movement in Myanmar this morning. Diplomats say the country is inviting foreign representatives to visit the areas hit by this month's cyclone. It is seen as an attempt to quiet criticism that the country is not doing enough for the victims.
CNN has a correspondent in Myanmar this morning, and he tells us that more aid is getting through, but it's still just a fraction of what's needed.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we have found some aid actually getting into those worse affected areas. Basically a lot of it is from private donors, from private Burmese donors. Some of it comes from international aid organizations and very, very little actually comes from the Myanmar government.
But the way you have to see this is that this aid gets into the larger towns in that area and doesn't reach those little rural villages that are only accessible by boat. Now, we have seen some donors who did basically exactly what we did, who hired a boat and just brought the aid straight to those villages, but it's very, very few people that are actually doing that.
And as we travel along the Irrawaddy River delta, we saw a lot of people who are fleeing their homes, who said they can't stay in their homes anymore. They would starve if they stayed in their homes. And really village after village that we got to was telling us that they had received no aid from their own government.
Some villages have received a little aid from donors, but most of them have received no aid at all. And what we heard from many village chiefs in that area, they say they're very much afraid that if the situation doesn't get any better and their food resources keep depleting, if they don't get clean drinking water, they fear that their population could be in a lot of trouble which means, of course, suffering, hunger and even starvation.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS: Our correspondent in Myanmar this morning. And an editor's note, we are still not identifying our correspondent there for security reasons.
A week after China was rocked by a 7.9 earthquake, more victims are being found alive. Two men were rescued overnight. Here you see a 53-year-old man pulled to safety after 147 hours buried in the rubble.
But with the rescues come more worries. More than 200 relief workers buried by landslides over the past three days as they try to repair roads in Sichuan Province. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SOUND: HORNS WAILING.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: And the noise that you're hearing there, China begins three days of national mourning for the tens of thousands of quake victims. Cars and pedestrians came to a standstill as horns wailed at 2:28 p.m., exactly one week after the quake struck.
Just a short time ago, China's government placed the damage at estimate at $9.5 billion. More than 34,000 people confirmed dead, still many thousands more missing.
PHILLIPS: The Reverend Franklin Graham stirring up some controversy this morning. The son of legendary evangelist Billy Graham says that he won't spread the word of God in China during the summer's Olympics. It's a comment that attracted a little bit of anger from underground Christians in a country still hostile to religious freedom.
Reverend Graham joins us now from Charlotte, North Carolina. Good morning, reverend, good to see you.
REV. FRANKLIN GRAHAM, PRESIDENT & CHAIRMAN, SAMARITANS PURSE: Thank you. Good morning.
PHILLIPS: Well, tell me what you meant by those comments that you are opposing evangelizing and mission work during the upcoming Olympics. Explain to us why you're taking that view.
GRAHAM: No, I'm not opposing evangelism. I'm an evangelist. I support evangelism, but, Kyra, I think outside groups coming from the United States or other areas of the world, going into China to break Chinese law, you want to be very careful because you're going to get the churches in trouble. Long after the Olympics are over, the churches are going to have to pay the price.
And I would recommend anybody who would like to know what Chinese law is, they can go to billygraham.org. We have it on our Web site, and they can read and understand the Chinese law for themselves.
And I would just say beware as you go into China. It is a different country. It is a communist country, and there are strict regulations. So just beware before you go in. I hate for you to go naive and get in trouble.
PHILLIPS: So are you saying --
GRAHAM: But I do support evangelism and I had a chance last week to preach, Kyra, to 12,000 people and gave an invitation for those people that wanted to receive Christ as their Lord and savior. We had over 1,200 people stand up in a church to ask Christ to come into their hearts. So yes, evangelism can be done but you've got to do it their way. PHILLIPS: Their way, and that's where the controversy lies here is how far do you push. I mean, if you look at the more than 20 million Christians that are having to live underground because they want to practice the word of God and the government is not supportive of that, and you look into the response of the comments that you made from one of the leaders there within the country, and I'm talking about Bob Fu, one of the most respected religious leaders there.
He said with regard to what you said, "Christians cannot and will not concede to a faith moratorium in order to please an atheistic government during the Olympic Games, even if that means enduring imprisonment and torture." He went on to say, look, it's worth the risk. It's worth the torture and not give up mission work.
So how do you balance in your mind, OK, how far do I go? How far do I risk? These Christians here say, look, we're going to do whatever it takes to spread the word.
GRAHAM: All right, Kyra, listen, there's two issues. I support the church in China doing evangelism, but what I really caution on are people from the outside from the United States going in for 10 days breaking Chinese law and then leaving, and giving possibly the church in trouble.
I'm all for the church in China evangelizing however they see fit. And so, my comments are not towards the church in China, but it's towards outsiders going in. Just be careful and read the law and understand it. Don't get in trouble. Billygraham.org and also, Kyra, we've got a plane, a 747 going to Chengdu in Sichuan Province this Friday from Charlotte, North Carolina. I hope you all cover it.
By the way, we've got a 747 full of relief supplies that are going in. We've already given $600,000 to the churches in China. In Myanmar right now, we have 11 people working. We have three flights that have already gone in to Yangon. Over 60 tons of relief supplies there, so good things are happening.
PHILLIPS: And I --
GRAHAM: The world's got a lot of trouble, but we're working there.
PHILLIPS: Absolutely, and your ministry is incredible with regard to helping victims of the natural disasters and we've seen the help that you've provided.
You know, just for a second I want to ask you a personal question. You know, I've been very lucky to get to meet you and members of your family, interview your father. I wish I could have met your mom, Ruth. She was an incredible woman.
GRAHAM: She sure was.
PHILLIPS: And she raised you guys, she was right there as your main spiritual leader when your dad was out traveling the world. And she was born in China and your grandparents were medical missionaries there. I mean, that was her first language before learning English.
I'm curious, how do you think she would advise you right now? What would she say about what's happening here in China and just the controversy that's been raised with regard to your statement. I'm just curious.
GRAHAM: I think she would be very encouraged today because there's been so much change, Kyra, in the last 20 years. The churches have had so much more freedom given back to them. And I think we need to encourage the government of China to continue this program of change. We need to recognize the changes that have been made and encourage them to continue to do that.
Is it perfect? Absolutely not.
Is there a lot more that needs to be done? Absolutely.
But they are going the right direction and I think my mother would be very pleased about what's happened in there. I talked to my father yesterday about this issue and he was very supportive in my position that we should not encourage outsiders going into China and breaking the law. We need to work within the law, Kyra. I believe that.
PHILLIPS: Understand, and you know I have got to get a political question in there. Your mother was also great about keeping your dad in check when he was advising too many presidents. I remember the story when she even kicked him under the table, what I'm saying now, Billy you stick to preaching and let the politicians stick to politics.
So I'm curious, in a historical election here, are you going to step out and support a candidate?
GRAHAM: No.
PHILLIPS: No, you're not? How - what are you going to proceed through the presidential election?
GRAHAM: I think the gospel of Jesus Christ is far more important than political rhetoric. And there's a lot of good candidates this year and I just pray that God's choice wins. I'm going to preach the gospel. I want men and women to know that Jesus Christ is the son of God who died for the sins of this world and if they confess their sins and repent and receive Christ by faith, that God will forgive them.
I think that's the most important message that I can give. And politics, if I support one candidate or another, it's going to turn people off to the most important message I have to share.
PHILLIPS: Reverend Franklin Graham, appreciate your time this morning. Best to your father.
GRAHAM: Thank you.
ROBERTS: And to the most politics in the morning now. An amazing picture from Oregon. 75,000 people turned out for an Obama rally in Portland. Mail in ballots are due in tomorrow, one week after Obama got thumped in West Virginia. Some were beginning to wonder if Obama could win over white voters.
We sent AMERICAN MORNING's Chris Lawrence out to Oregon to find out what voters think there.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LAWRENCE (voice-over): Oregon has so many Obama supporters, they're drumming up votes on Clinton street.
EVE CALLAHAN, OBAMA VOLUNTEER: We're out canvassing and volunteering for Barack Obama's campaign.
LAWRENCE: Eve Callahan says the environment is a big issue in Oregon. And she likes the fact that Obama opposed Hillary Clinton's efforts to suspend the gas tax. Callahan thinks it's pandering for votes and postponing a real solution.
CALLAHAN: You know, I would love to save $25 over the course of the summer, but I would much rather see and spend our efforts on actually reducing the consumption of oil.
LAWRENCE; After getting crushed in West Virginia, Obama is favored to win in nearly all white Oregon. The state's higher education level and surge in young registered voters helps, but doesn't fully explain his double digit lead in the local polls.
TIM HIBBITTS, OREGON POLLSTER: Senator Obama will do very well even among less educated whites here in Oregon.
LAWRENCE: Pollster Tim Hibbits says that the housing collapse didn't hit Oregon as hard as some other states. So, while the economy is important, the Iraq war remains a big issue, especially among women.
HIBBITTS: Senator Obama looks like the more dovish candidate and Senator Clinton looks like the more hawkish candidate. And I think for some female voters out here, they may be moving towards Obama for that reason.
LINDA RALLEY, VOTING FOR OBAMA: We just need to get out of there now and we need to get out of there now.
LAWRENCE: Linda Ralley is a 58-year-old school principal.
RALLEY: I'm at an age where the thought of having the first female president is very exciting.
LAWRENCE: But she's voting for Obama.
RALLEY: I have no doubt that Hillary would be able to accomplish something the old way. I want new, I want a different perspective.
LAWRENCE: The "Ohio Transplant" says Oregon is a pioneer state, open to new ideas like it's system of voting only by mail. That's what sets the state apart and makes it prime territory for change. Chris Lawrence, CNN, Portland.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS: Alina Cho here with other stories making news this morning.
ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey there, guys. Good morning to you. Good morning, everybody. And new this morning, a U.S. soldier in Iraq has been pulled from duty after using Islam's holy book the Koran for target practice. U.S. commanders were forced to quickly apologize, they even presented tribal leaders with a new Koran. The Islamic holy book was riddled with bullets. There was an expletive found on one of the pages. It was discovered last week at a shooting range outside Baghdad.
In Texas, five judges over the next three weeks will begin hundreds of hearings in that enormous polygamist case. The fate of the 464 children removed from a polygamist compound will be settled. Their parents will learn what if anything they can do to regain custody. The state is still waiting for DNA results to figure out parentage. That will take a couple of weeks at least. The children remain in state custody.
$531,000, that's your household share of what the federal government owes, according to "USA Today." "USA Today" reporting the federal government's long term financial obligations grew by $2.5 trillion, with a 'T' last year. That's because of rising costs of Medicare and social security benefits as more baby boomers reach retirement. It amounts to double the red ink last year.
And political watchers often look at polls for answers, sometimes they're right, sometimes they're not. How about the stars?
Astrologers are getting into the game too and apparently they say John McCain can win the presidential election according to the stars and that's according to a convention of astrologers.
How about going to that convention?
McCain though shouldn't count on the victory just yet because even the stars apparently can change their minds. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SHELLEY ACKERMAN, ASTROLOGER: In July, the second week in July, there is incredible stress to McCain's chart and to Obama's chart and both could go through something.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHO: That's assuming of course that Obama and McCain will face each other in the general election. The convention by the way was held in Denver which also hosts the Democratic National Convention. By the way, just a side note, Hillary is a Scorpio and that means according to the astrologers you can't count her out just yet.
ROBERTS: So am I.
(CROSSTALK)
CHO: There you go.
VELSHI: That explains it all.
CHO: Yes it does.
PHILLIPS: I'm a Leo, so how does that all play in here? And you are.
CHO: Pisces.
PHILLIPS: So, Pisces, Leo, we're going to be looking it up. We'll see how we all align.
VELSHI: I think we should do that.
CHO: I'll investigate.
ROBERTS: That would be good fun.
All right. Call it the luck of the Irish for an Englishman. Check this out.
Richard Finch at the 18th hole of the Irish Open's final round. Look out. Look at that, the ball ended up on the green, though.
Heroic shot -- look at that.
PHILLIPS: And then he went for a few Guinness's. That's the part that didn't go in there.
ROBERTS: Did he over swing or did he just loose his footing there? I guess he doesn't mind because he won the competition with a two under 70. Two strokes better than the next player closer to him and he can afford some new clothes because the prize was about $800,000.
CHO: You have never done that.
ROBERTS: 416,000 pounds, I would go swimming for that money, wouldn't you?
VELSHI: You know, you might have a little money in your pocket as a result of what I'm going to tell you. It's not all bad news. There's a forecast for the economy by some pretty good forecaster who say oil prices are going down and the dollar is going up. You got to hear this. Stick with us. We're coming back on AMERICAN MORNING. Right now.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Welcome back to AMERICAN MORNING. I'm Ali Velshi and as we discussed, I'm a Scorpio so we will not be beaten.
I have managed to find an economic forecast that's not so bad. It's the National Association of Business Economics. I know it doesn't sound all that exciting, but it's a survey of 52 professional economic forecasters and they're saying sure the economy will continue to weaken this year. It may not be as bad as you think. They think that 2008 will be a little rough. 2009 will get better and we'll start to see that improvement probably right around the end of the year and definitely by the first three months of 2009.
But here's the rub. They think that oil is going to get cheaper than it is right now. We're looking at oil over $125 a barrel. The National Association of Business Economics says oil will be about $98 by the beginning of 2009. $92 a barrel by the beginning of 2010. So, good news when you think of the fact that we got another record for gas prices.
They also think that the dollar prices will be strengthen to a $1.50 for a euro by the beginning of 2009 and $1.40 for a euro by 2010. That doesn't probably feel like much, but the point of this exercise is that those economists think that the trend is actually going to get better, probably after it gets a little worse this year.
And I should tell you there is a growing sentiment about the fact that whatever we're in, whatever downturn this is, its may not be too long, it may not be too deep. The unknown here of course is inflation, how long oil stays high and how it works into our food supply.
ROBERTS: My buddy, Kevin, who is a financial advisor is an inseparable optimist when it comes to the economy, you should call him.
VELSHI: Here you go. I was here to give you the whole range of opinions.
ROBERTS: Thanks, Ali.
PHILLIPS: All right, guys.
Check out this picture, it's a great picture out of Iraq to show you now. U.S. soldiers losing what little hair they had to show their support for kids with cancer. The makeshift barbershop was set up inside Baghdad's Camp Liberty. It was organized by Major Steve Roberts. He planned to do the event back in Maryland, but was deployed to Iraq. So, a number of female soldiers also wanted to get in on this and go bald for the occasion but guess out. It turns out that baldheads for women are against military regulations.
ROBERTS: Yes.
PHILLIPS: Yes.
ROBERTS: Well, the John McCain campaign cleans house but are they airing too much dirty laundry, will a wave of resignations help or hurt the candidates? (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PHILLIPS (voice-over): Coming up on AMERICAN MORNING. Bringing baby to work. Forget casual Friday, these offices look like playpens. What happens when your co-worker turns into a real crybaby?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hey, Laura.
PHILLIPS: The growing trend that could be coming to a cubicle near you, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
PHILLIPS: More and more companies opening their arms to new moms saying, go ahead, bring your baby to work. But is it a good idea for their co-workers? AMERICAN MORNING's Alina Cho has been taking a look at that. I wonder - we should ask John what he would think if we brought our screaming babies into the --
ROBERTS: You need to have one first, don't you?
PHILLIPS: That's right.
CHO: I guess we have to have the babies first. Yes.
PHILLIPS: We'll talk about it later.
ROBERTS: Hello!
CHO: It's take your child to workday every day. I mean, that's the idea, Kyra. And new moms say they love it. OK. Companies say, you know, it's good for morale. But imagine sitting in a cubicle in an office next to a crying, screaming baby. Add to that, maybe a tight deadline. How would you feel?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: His number is --
CHO (voice-over): Imagine dealing with this at work.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK. Hey, Laura.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not a good idea.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's silly.
CHO: But it is happening.
UNIDENTFIED FEMALE I get my baby fix in and then I go right back to work.
CHO: Nearly 100 companies nationwide allow new mothers back from maternity leave to bring their babies to work as often as they want. KIMBERLY RICHARDSON, BRINGS SON TO WORK: I can enjoy him longer, I get to be with him, I don't suffer the separation anxiety that a lot of working mothers do.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: 4,225.
RICHARDSON: Luckily they don't expect 100 percent out of us, they pretty much know that we're going to give as much as we can, but that's going to be about 75 percent, 80 percent.
CHO: Jenna's boss says that's fine. It's good for business.
BILL TUCKER: I've got parallels that have been with me for 25 years. How many businesses can talk about that.
CHO: Bill Tucker who runs this law firm in Charlottesville, Virginia calls the program a no-brainer. It costs next to nothing to launch and saves them in the long run. Census bureau statistics show about half of all new mothers do not return to work after giving birth. By bringing their babies to the job, moms save on daycare and bond with their child.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It does something for him too, it helps him continue his bond with me as well.
CHO: Not surprisingly, there are plenty of critics. Some say babies by nature are distracting and have no business being in the office.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Stay at home. Make up your mind. No one can have everything.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I have enough problem with them on airplanes, how can I stand working with them in the office?
CHO: But moms say peace and quiet on the job is no substitute for peace of mind.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHO: Yes, these new moms really love the idea. You know, employers say they do understand that babies can be a big distraction in some cases, but in general, rule number one is that crying babies must be taken out of the workplace until the crying stops. Now everyone agrees it's not for every work environment. Police officers and firemen can't really do it. But having babies at work also takes team work, including co-workers who are willing to help, Kyra. Maybe even change a diaper every now and then.
PHILLIPS: It sort of changes the whole women's lib movement, right?
CHO: Yes. I mean, that woman we heard from who said, make a choice, you know, you can't have everything, she's actually a mother of three. She said she took 15 years out of work. She left her job to raise her children. She said she's now working and she's very happy and she said you have to make a choice.
Other people say, listen, maybe not bring your babies to work, but maybe create daycare at work and maybe that's the solution. So, you know, there's no shortage of ideas when you're talking about bringing a baby to work.
PHILLIPS: And it can be a distraction, but at the same time what a morale booster. Think about every time someone brings their baby to our NEWSROOM. Everybody wants -
CHO: That's right. One mother said -
PHILLIPS: It lights the place up.
CHO: One mother said it's like bringing a pet to work, in a way, you know, everybody gets really happy. But you know, remember, half of all new moms don't come back to work after giving birth. You know, there are really no startup costs. Maybe 200 bucks for a diaper changing table. But that's it. And employer's say it breeds loyalty. Listen, it's easier -
PHILLIPS: They don't have to retrain people, right?
CHO: They don't have to rehire, retrain and then maybe you're getting 70 percent, 80 percent when you have the baby on the job. Once the baby leaves and they're hold enough to stay at home, they get 110 percent because the worker feels so loyal about bringing their baby to work. So, anyway.
PHILLIPS: It's a definite talker. That's for sure.
Thanks, Alina.
CHO: You bet.
PHILLIPS: All right, John.
ROBERTS: Nine minutes now to the top of the hour and time to check in on our "Quick Vote" question this morning. We're asking who will be America's first female president?
Right now 32 percent of you say it will be Hillary Clinton -- 68 percent think it's going to be somebody else. Head to CNN.com/am to cast your ballot.
We've also been looking at your e-mails coming in this morning. I wanted to share a couple with you.
Jana from Manhattan, Kansas writes in with this suggestion: "The Kansas governor, a popular Democrat, Kathleen Sebelius will be the first female president. Pundits have tossed her name around for various roles, including a possible slot as running mate for Barack Obama but she could just as likely be the first female U.S. president."
And Karl from Locust Grove, Virginia, sent this in: "First female president in U.S history? She'll be a Clinton all right, but not Hillary. It will be Chelsea. Just a prediction."
We'll read O'BRIEN: re of your e-mails coming up in our next hour of AMERICAN MORNING.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS (voice-over): McCain cleans house, Obama holds a record rally.
OBAMA: We're ready to write a new chapter in American history.
ROBERTS: The most politics in the morning. A nation in mourning. And new fears.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The quake has happened right in the middle of China's nuclear production area.
ROBERTS: Concerns about China's nuclear program, prompting unprecedented cooperation between nations.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HUCKABEE: There's no one I would rather be on a ticket with than John McCain. Whether or not I do the best for him, that's something that only he can decide. I'm going to support him because I think he's the right person for America.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee making his pitch over the weekend to be John McCain's running mate. And meantime John McCain is cleaning house and losing staff in response to charges that his campaign is too closely tied to lobbyist. The latest top aide to leave is Thomas Loeffler, his finance co- chair. And joining me now to talk more about this and where the race is head is Republican strategist Ed Rollins.
Ed, it's great to see you.
ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Good morning, how are you?
ROBERTS: Always good to have you. I'm good, thanks. So, Loeffler's departure from the campaign, what kind of a problem does this represent for McCain from A, a perception standpoint and B, fundraising?
ROLLINS: First, Tom's a very quality guy. He used to be a member of Congress and obviously a very effective lobbyist and a very important insider but the fact that he represents Saudi Arabia is a liability which you would have to face throughout this campaign with $120 barrel and what have you. So, my sense, his leaving obviously is going to hurt the fundraising side because he's very effective on that front. But I think the perception problem of too many lobbyists, certainly with Rick Davis, the campaign manager, Charlie Black and two other long- time lobbyists. It makes for a big campaign issue for Obama who basically is talking about reform and doing it in a different way.
ROBERTS: And the McCain campaign is trying to diffuse that by pointing fingers at Obama to say that well, we're out there in the open, we're transparent about our lobbyist ties. What about Obama, he's not talking about any lobbyists that may be tied as advisers to his campaign. Is that a wise strategy to say, hey our house is dirty, and we're cleaning it up but go take a look at his house?
ROLLINS: I don't think McCain has any choice. I think McCain clearly is running as an independent, as a reformer. He's got to basically clean house and there other people who can come in and do the jobs that are being done. Sooner or later Obama's people are going to be outed, I don't mean that in a derogatory term. But everybody has people who are Washington insiders and he certainly does too.
ROBERTS: You know, people talking about what effect this is going to have on McCain raising money, that he's going to have to lean more heavily on the RNC's fund raising prowess. Also, maybe bring President Bush into this a little bit more. He has been an effective fund raiser in the past but some Republicans are a little uncomfortable with John McCain getting too close to President Bush. Let's listen to what Republican Congressman Tom Davis said about that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. TOM DAVIS (R), VIRGINIA: He's got to get some separation from the president. He is absolutely radioactive at this point.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Davis is saying that President Bush is radioactive for John McCain, that the McCain campaign needs to get some distance? Is President Bush a liability as opposed to an asset for John McCain?
ROLLINS: Well, he's a liability to any candidate that he campaigns for. And I think the reality is McCain does have to put distance. Can he still raise money for the Republican National Committee? You bet, yes. The die hard conservative Republicans still love George Bush and they're going do come out for fund-raisers, but I think to have him as an endorser or what have you, it's time to turn that page. And I think the reality is that it's going to be about McCain and not about Bush.
ROBERTS: Now, of course, Tom Davis saying that President Bush is not the only problem with the Republican Party. That it's got a lot of problems that go deeper than that, talking got these three congressional districts that flip from Republican to Democrat or canaries in a coal mine, predicting what might come in November, saying that the Republican Party's got a branding problem. That if it were a brand of dog food, it would be a brand of dog food that nobody would want to buy and should be taken off the shelf. How deep are these problems?
ROLLINS: They're very deep. No one's smarter than Tom Davis when it comes to political strategy. He ran the Congressional Committee for a number of years, but at the end of the day, we haven't lived up to our commitments.
We promised that we're going to be a different kind of party. We were going to be a fiscally conservative party. We rolled up big deficits and continue to do that. We talked to our value voters and said that we're going to be different than the Democrats, we're the ones with the scandals daily and I think to a certain extent, we really got to figure out who we are again and come out with a very clear message.
ROBERTS: Of course, at the end of last week, the big news was about President Bush by association whacking Barack Obama during this speech to the Knesset. John McCain jumped right in on that as well criticizing Obama, and that gave Barack Obama an opportunity to tie John McCain with President Bush's foreign policy.
Let's listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: Those are the failed policies that John McCain wants to double down on. Because he still hasn't spelled out one substantial way in which he would be different from George Bush when it comes to foreign policy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: That Knesset speech for President Bush, was it a mistake? And was it a mistake for John McCain to jump on.
ROLLINS: I personally think it was a mistake. I don't think you become a political candidate when you're talking to a foreign body. I think at the end of the day, Obama was able to take that and knock Hillary off the front pages. And I think to a certain extent it helped him and it hurt us.
ROBERTS: So, it was a victory for Barack Obama?
ROLLINS: I think it gave him a different place to go as opposed to talking about his defeat in West Virginia or her victory. So, I think, it let him get back on the offensive. I think the President needs to basically finish out his term. They've been in a campaign mode for so long it's hard to give that up but at the end of the day, it's really John McCain's turn to carry the ball for the Republican Party.
ROBERTS: Ed Rollins, Republican strategist.
Good to see you, my friend. Thanks for coming in.
ROLLINS: My pleasure.
ROBERTS: Kyra.
PHILLIPS: Senator Hillary Clinton leveling top criticism at President Bush for meeting with Saudi leaders. During a campaign stop in Kentucky, she accused the President of begging Saudi Arabia to increase oils supplies rather than having a real energy plan.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: I find that embarrassing that the President of the United States would go over to Saudi Arabia and beg for their help. I tell you one thing, if I'm your president, you won't see me holding hands with the Saudis, you'll see me holding them accountable.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
PHILLIPS: Clinton went on to list her ideas including experimenting more with biofuels that incentives for auto makers to manufacture cars with better gas mileage.
