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Record Flooding in the Midwest; Barack Obama Lectures on Father's Day; Elian Gonzalez Officially Joined Cuba's Young Communist Union; 400 Militants Bust Out of An Afghan Prison; Historic Flooding in the Midwest; President of Afghanistan Losing His Patience with the Taliban; New Numbers Out About the Head-To-Head Match Up Between McCain and Obama

Aired June 15, 2008 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

RICK SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, listen to what Barack Obama did. How he lectures fathers on Father's Day.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Too many fathers are MIA. They're acting like boys instead of men.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: And it gets even more critical, more blunt, more personal.

Breaking news. Down there somewhere is the University of Iowa, a school with 30,000 students.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's just that we can't get them here. Anything I can do?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: The kind of flooding that comes only once every 500 years from Des Moines through Cedar Rapids to Iowa City, now threatening Quincy and Hannibal. We'll tell you what it did, what it's doing and what it's about to do.

Does John McCain beat Barack Obama head-to-head right now? We'll show you a new weekend poll.

It's official. Elian Gonzalez is a communist.

And in Miami I asked this about the U.S.-Cuban embargo.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: Does the policy work? No. It hasn't worked. But why continue a policy that doesn't work, many would ask?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: We ask.

And 400 accused terrorists, even attempted suicide bombers break out of prison. What does it mean for us? An hour packed with news starts now.

Hi, everybody, I'm Rick Sanchez. I don't know if you heard that, but tonight there's been an unexpected speech from Barack Obama you're going to want to hear. I mean, you know what he does? He lectures men on fatherhood. It seems highly personal, but is it also political? We're going to put this one together for you and we'll have that for you in just a little bit.

But first, we're going to begin tonight with some breaking news. This is out of Iowa. Take a look at some of the video that we've been getting in so far. Let's go first, Claude, to the University of Iowa. It looks like -- remember that movie "A River Runs Through It," eight feet of water flooding much of the campus.

Let's go to Cedar Rapids now. The water there is starting to go down a bit, but some people are now being let back into their homes. Yesterday, their homes were under water though, so you can imagine what they look and smell like now as they go back.

And Iowans, they aren't the only ones reeling. River side towns of Illinois and Missouri, we're now being told, are bracing for even some more floods. All right, that's what's happening right now. What's next for the Midwest?

Meteorologist Chad Myers is standing by. We're going to start with him because, you know, we keep looking at this thing from a micro perspective. You know, we'll show you a reporter here in Cedar Rapids or another reporter in Des Moines.

How big is this thing? If you start thinking from an amplified standpoint, what is this thing look like, Chad?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: We have record flooding. I don't mean just like major flooding, but literally the highest water levels ever all the way from almost just west of Milwaukee right on down through northern Illinois and Indiana.

Let me kind of do a little bit of a Google Earth map here behind you. And just to give you a perspective of how many states are involved here. So there you go. Every area that you see in red or in purple there behind me, that's a river well out of its banks. Either major flood stage or record flood stage. So we'll get to it a little bit.

What's going to happen now? I mean, this water has to go somewhere. It's all running off and it's eventually going to go towards St. Louis. Now the good news about St. Louis is that your levees are going to hold at least, you know, -- I mean, that's saying before the water gets there. But we have all of this other data to talk about here.

So let's talk about the Mississippi River at St. Louis. How is this going to go? We are almost up to major flood stage by Friday, still Friday. See this down here by the 10:03 p.m. where my little mouse is going around? That's still the water still going up until Friday there.

But then maybe a little bit farther up to the north. Iowa River and Iowa City, you are at the top of your curve now and from now on your water is going to start going down, but that is not soon enough, Rick.

Yes, go ahead.

SANCHEZ: You just mentioned Iowa City so I'm going to stop you for just a moment and let you finish, because I'm told now that we have two guests from Iowa City who are joining us. And folks, this is where it's worse today.

Following this thing has been interesting. One day we're talking about Des Moines, the next day we're talking about Cedar Rapids. Today, this story is zeroed in on Iowa City. That's where the Hawkeyes are, the University of Iowa. Who am I talking to here? That's Ann Barber and Jane Meyer.

Ann Barber is a student. Jane Meyer, I understand, you are an Associate Athletic Director there at the university. Is that correct?

JANE MEYER, SENIOR ASSOCIATE ATHLETIC DIRECTOR: That is correct.

SANCHEZ: How bad are things now? What are you guys doing to get by?

MEYER: Well, to be quite honest from the athletics perspective, that's not the focus right now. It's the greater buildings of about 18 to 20 of them that are currently under flood and about 12 to 15 are currently underwater, but there's another few that we're still very concerned about.

SANCHEZ: Ann, I understand you've been working for, what? Six, seven days now there?

ANN BARBER, UNIVERSITY OF IOWA STUDENT: I started sandbagging last Saturday. Yes, so about a week.

SANCHEZ: You know, I want to tell our viewers, and Chad, get in on this. All right. You see that picture to the right that we're showing you right now. Look at that building all the way at the end. See to the right? It's almost framed.

By the way, that's the university you're looking at right now. That is the University of Iowa with an enrollment of 30,000 students. Back to that building on the right, that's part of the university's art department/museum where they had extremely expensive art works including some Picassos we're told.

And today they had to go in there with a security force to take them out before they were ruined. Chad, as you look at this picture, your thoughts from a meteorological standpoint and your thoughts to Jane and to Ann who are hanging on there. MYERS: Ladies, I know you're not structural engineers, but we heard from a reporter today that some of these buildings may not be reparable. Have you heard that from any officials there in Iowa?

MEYER: Well, I think that's the decision that we'll have to make with regards to all of our facilities. We've been working very closely at the direction of our facilities management folks. And I have not heard that any of our buildings are not sound. That's going to take a lot of time for people to evaluate.

SANCHEZ: Well, let me ask you this, then. When are you being told that you may be able to get back into those buildings?

MEYER: I have no day. And I don't know if you've heard anything or not, but we have not heard any of those dates. Obviously, we want to make sure that the water's crested and then we'll wait for the direction of the other university folks.

SANCHEZ: All right, Chad, back to you. The question is the water's crested. When does the water crest? When do you think looking at it and I know you can't be extremely specific, but when do you think this thing are going to go down and they're going to be able to see the bottoms of those buildings again.

MYERS: Well, the record flood -- the old record set in 1993, the epic flood that we all talk about. We don't go below that epic level until next Saturday. Another six days still at this level. So it goes down slowly here on our angle, but still that line, you see, is still the record. So we only go below the record in seven days and not where the water comes out of Iowa City, literally, for at least two weeks from today.

SANCHEZ: Wow. Ann, what do you think when you hear that? And what are you hearing from other fellow students there -- are they curious, depressed, sad, what?

BARBER: You know, it's very hard to watch the devastation of our university, but I have to say that I've been incredibly impressed with the outreach from the community. All the people that have been coming together. Throughout the week I've seen thousands of faces out of sandbagging and it's hard to watch, but at the same time it's been a very neat experience to meet a lot of the people that have come to help us at the university.

SANCHEZ: Well, I'll tell you, you guys are tough as usually Iowans are. You're hunkering down, you're getting through it, but right now, to look at these pictures you can't help, but feel for you guys. Hang in there. We'll be continuing to do what we can to share the information with folks.

Chad will be trying to bring the information to you on his end to see if you can at least do some better preps.

Let's go to Cedar Rapids now. Jim Acosta has been following this.

Jim, yesterday, you and I were talking and you were in downtown Cedar Rapids in what was literally and ironically rapids. I mean, water going through you to the point you were doing all you could to stand up. Where are you now?

JIM ACOSTA, CNN GENERAL ASSIGNMENT CORRESPONDENT: From rapids to puddles, Rick. That's right. This is the picture of progress what you're looking at right now here in downtown Cedar Rapids.

If I were standing in this exact same spot 24 hours ago, I would be under water and let me show you why. Take a look at this building next to me. It's probably the tallest building here in downtown Cedar Rapids. You can see the sandbags that had been filed up here. The folks here did the best that they could. Put up here about eight feet high, two feet above my head is the high watermark on this building. And that show you just how high this water was.

It was maybe a couple of feet below that last night and now it's the tensions that are running high in this city, Rick. Throughout the day today people in this town who have been evacuated from their homes, they started going back to see their properties today.

They lined up at checkpoints. We got some video of that to show you. These checkpoints that were manned by the National Guard and the local police department. Those folks -- those authorities were issuing these residents temporary wrist bands, men, women and children so they could go back to their properties.

This was not to go back and live in your properties, mind you, but to go back and gather up any kind of belongings that they can to tie them over in their hotel rooms. And that is essentially what people did. Bringing back those items, those belongings and plastic bags in some cases to take them off to a relative's house or a motel. But, Rick, this really paints the picture right now.

Consider this. This is the second largest city in the State of Iowa. 120,000 people. This is the downtown of this city and it is pitch black tonight, Rick, when the moon comes out and the sun goes down all the way tonight, this town will be a ghost town. It's going to take days, weeks, perhaps months to get this back in order.

SANCHEZ: And you know what, Jim -- I mean, people start thinking -- well, you know what, so it's now gone and they'll be able to go back to their homes. Wrong! As you and I know and most of us reporters who cover these things, you go back to those houses who were underwater, you've got drywall that's cardboard that used to be like this and it is now this thick and it smells. It's a terrible situation.

ACOSTA: Mold blooms.

SANCHEZ: Hey, by the way, I mentioned to the viewers yesterday that when I talked to you yesterday, literally, rapids going through the town. Rapids, you even fish in them.

I want to show our viewers this. This was Jim yesterday, literally, nabbing fish. That's what that water was like. That's how fast it was moving. And from Jim, I don't know -- hey, Chad, are you still there? Because I'm thinking if water's moving, it's got to be going somewhere. Where are those fish and these waters now heading to? Other towns that could possibly be in the way of more flooding?

ACOSTA: Sure, down river. I mean, everything that bubble that has now come out of Cedar Rapids is going to be down river and Columbus Junction, down river is just going to get pounded tomorrow as the bubble going down Cedar Rapids is still going up there. Columbus Junction and also in the Quincy and Hannibal.

I'm still thinking, though, that all the big cities along the Mississippi. The levees are going to be enough to hold it back as long as the levees hold.

SANCHEZ: We're hearing Jim in the background there.

ACOSTA: Rick, I was just going say.

SANCHEZ: Go ahead.

ACOSTA: No, I was just going to say persistence does pay off because even though last night my efforts were unsuccessful, one of the hazards of live television trying to nab a fish live on the air I should have know better.

We came back today and wouldn't you know it as soon as we pulled up, Rick, at our exact, same location as last night, I was able to nab a big one there as you can see in this video here. I'm not a fisherman, not an angler as you can tell, but I believe that is some sort of a part and --

SANCHEZ: That's what they call jumping in the boat, my friend.

ACOSTA: Nothing, but net last night, but I came up big today.

SANCHEZ: Hey, Jim, thanks a lot for hanging in there. I'm glad to see that things are at least dryer in Des Moines although some of the real problems start for them right now.

Chad as you continue to follow, you mentioned Quincy and Hannibal. You know, from a geographic standpoint, I'm not the smartest guy in the world, Quincy is what? Illinois. Hannibal is Missouri?

MYERS: Yes, right. But it's the same line, the same river itself. All of this water as we get out of Iowa and we get out of Illinois and Wisconsin is not going to be the same size bubble that we had in 1993. So we're not going to have the epic floods that we saw then.

So this was a more localized event than the '93 flood where floodwaters came from North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, all the way down to the Missouri and the Mississippi. And they all got together in one big puddle. Well, that's not going to happen this time.

One more thing, Childress, Texas, you're under a tornado warning. Like we need more things to talk about, Rick, here. That just issued there to south of town of Childress, Texas. Tornado on the ground reported by spot.

SANCHEZ: All right. Anything weather wise, Chad, just let us know and we're going to get back to you and continue to update people on what's going on in Iowa. That's serious especially right now in Iowa City. Who knows what is going to go further down from there.

All right, coming up, listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: I said how come fathers, they don't seem to be as big as Mother's Day. She said, let me tell you --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SANCHEZ: All right. He grew up without a father and now -- and that probably wasn't the piece of sound that we would have wanted to share with you that really represents what he did today. He's lecturing about fatherhood in a very critical, serious way to men who live in America. It's highly personal, by the way, and we're going to want you to hear this.

Also, 400 accused terrorists have broken out of a prison in Afghanistan. Some are attempted suicide bombers and we're being told it's not important. Not important?

Also, you want to know what Elian Gonzalez looks like today? We're going to show you.

And I'm also taking you to Miami to talk about the Cuban embargo in my "League of First Time Voters."

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: Tonight, Elian Gonzalez all grown up. There he is.

Also, Miami's Cubans on the embargo question. Is it time to lift it once and for all? That's ahead on tonight's "League of First Time Voters."

Welcome back. I'm Rick Sanchez here on the World Headquarters of CNN. Listen to these words. Quote, "Any fool can have a child." "Any fool can have a child." When was the last time that you heard a politician running for the presidency of the United States use language like that?

Well, I'm going to add something to it. Let me ask you this. When was the last time that you saw a Democrat -- a Democrat in church giving what appears to be a sermon to a congregation?

Tonight, Barack Obama with a highly personal and critical and unexpected moment. Here it is.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) SANCHEZ (voice-over): It was Barack Obama's first church service since resigning from Trinity United Church of Christ. Visiting a south side Chicago congregation, he talks personally on the role of faith in his life.

OBAMA: People ask me sometimes, how do you manage all this? Folks talking about you on cable and I said trust in the Lord. I trust in the Lord. He looks after me.

SANCHEZ: With his wife and daughters looking on, Obama delivers a broader Father's Day message, calling on fathers especially in the African-American community to play a greater role in their children's lives.

OBAMA: But if we're honest with ourselves we'll admit that too many fathers are also missing. Too many fathers are MIA. Too many fathers are AOL. Missing from too many lives and too many homes. They've abandoned their responsibilities. They're acting like boys instead of men.

SANCHEZ: Even straying from his script to make this point.

OBAMA: Any fool can have a child. That doesn't make you a father.

SANCHEZ: Obama shares his own experience of a father who left home when he was only two, though admitting the story had a different ending.

OBAMA: I know what it means to have an absent parent. My father wasn't in the house when I was growing up. I have to say my circumstances weren't as tough as they are for many young people today. I was growing up in Hawaii. Hawaii is not quite as tough as the south side. I'm just telling the truth.

SANCHEZ: Even while acknowledging failings of his own.

OBAMA: And I say this knowing that I've been an imperfect father, knowing that I've made mistakes and I'll continue to make more. Wishing that I could be at home more for my girls and my wife.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: Let's go now to the debut of Preston on politics. CNN political editor Mark Preston is joining us live.

Mark, let's do this. Let's talk first about the politics side of this faith angle. Listen, I don't want to sound jaded and some are going to criticize me for it, but I guess it's part of my job. So let me just ask you straight out.

He does this in an effort to cut into that sizable John McCain white male lead, doesn't he? I mean, this is a values play by Barack Obama. He says trust in the Lord. When was the last time you heard a Democrat in church using language like that? MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: It's a couple of different things there, Rick. First of all it is political. Everything Barack Obama does now until now November is political. Everything John McCain does from now until November is political. In the end, it's very unlikely Barack Obama is going to win a majority of these evangelical voters, these conservative evangelical voters.

But what they're looking for is they're trying to reach out and hit those moderate voters. Those moderate evangelicals who are fed up with the Republican Party.

SANCHEZ: But here's the question. This guy is there trying to sound or sounding or being sincere. I'm not getting into his heart. I'm not going to read what he's actually doing.

I guess the question to you as an analyst is -- is this really Barack Obama sharing something with him that's very real and very personal or is this a politician taking a Machiavellian step to try and get voters he otherwise wouldn't get?

PRESTON: I think he's being sincere. I mean, who better to deliver this message? I mean, this is a gentleman who grew up without a father, whose father, you know, left him. You know, who better to deliver that message, to preach to the choir? To get up and say -- look, you know something? We need to do something about our communities. We need to get it back together.

But at the same time, if you listen to his whole speech, you know, while he talked about personal responsibility and really talking -- you know, spoke and had tough words, he also told some of the Democratic line in that speech.

He talked about the fact that there needs to be more money for vouchers, there needs to be more money for inner city schools and for teachers, for economic programs. So he didn't totally -- you know, he played to his base as well in that speech.

SANCHEZ: Do you think he's going to get a little blowback on this? A little backlash, a little criticism from the African-American community like a famous comedian recently did? Because look what he's saying -- he's saying to some angry white men out there with this speech I'm calling some of the black guys irresponsible for not taking care of their fatherly duties. That's a win among angry white guys, isn't it?

PRESTON: Well, look, if he does get blowback, then so be it I think from his perspective. He went out there, said his piece, whether you agree with him or you don't agree with him, he went out and said it. You know, supposedly he said it from his heart.

Again, everything that he's going to do now is political up to this point and if he does get blowback, maybe that does help him with some voters, but in the end, he said, and I guess we'll see what happens.

SANCHEZ: Mark Preston, you're good. Preston on politics right here. Listen, stick around. I want to bring you back. There's something else that I want to talk about and it's these polls.

If you guys at home haven't heard, there are some new polls out. New numbers on the horse race, as we like to call it, between Barack Obama and John McCain. Who's winning, who's losing? And then because Mark Preston is so smart when it comes to this stuff, we're going to bring him back. We're going to put up this map.

The electoral college map and go state by state and tell you who's ahead where, who's leaning where and which states are wide open. That tells you a lot about how this thing can end up. So that's coming up in probably 15 or 20 minutes.

Now, coming up, straight ahead, we're going to show you this map and we're going ask you a question. A place where our soldiers are fighting. A place like Iraq and Afghanistan. Can you find it on the map? And how few Americans actually can. We know how few can and it's going scare you when we tell you.

Next, though, I'm going to sit down with a group of young Cuban- Americans. These are people who will be voting for the first time since November. Most of them, traditionally have been very conservative and very Republican. Are they leaning the other way and what do they say about the embargo? Should we lift it? Back in two. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: Can it get any worse than this in the war on terror? As hard as it is to stop terrorists, right? Imagine now that they get away after being caught? 400 accused violent terrorists have broken out of prison. They are looking for them. That's ahead.

All right, we do have breaking news. Remember Chad mentioned a little while ago there was something going in Texas? Apparently, he's been able to nail that down.

Chad, what have you got?

MYERS: Childress, Texas, there's Oklahoma City, Dallas, way out west Texas, almost the Panhandle. A tornado did go through town or considerable wind damage. Obviously, we won't know until the weather service gets there. But the emergency managers and the sheriffs saying considerable wind damage or tornado damage has been reported in Childress and that happen about 15 or 20 minutes ago. We'll keep you advised the more we have.

SANCHEZ: Yes. It usually starts out with a report like that from you, Chad, and then we find out it's unfortunately worse. Hopefully, it won't be in this case. We'll be checking. We'll be making call. Thanks, Chad.

News tonight from Cuba about someone whose personal life we hear very little about. That young man that we're going to show you right there. See him on the left? Remember him? He's 14 years old now, this weekend. He officially joined Cuba's Young Communist Union. Elian Gonzalez, who could forget the name? Party newspapers said that he was one of 18,000 young people, Saturday, who swore allegiance to President Castro and former President Castro. Sounds funny saying that.

Elian, you'll remember, lost a fight to stay in the United States eight years ago which leads us to this. Should the United States continue to punish the Castro's regime with an embargo?

Here's part two now of my "League of First Time Voters," where I went to Miami and I talked to some young Cuban-Americans who say they have no problems in many cases with Barack Obama talking to Castro. That's a surprise, but then I asked them about the embargo. Here's that conversation.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Today, the Cuban people continue to live under tyranny and their struggle goes on. One day -- one day America will again have warm relations with the Cuban government that represents a sovereign will of the people. One that respects their fundamental human and political rights.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't think that this regime that has been in place for more than 40 years and has been a brutal regime is suddenly going to change because the U.S. is nice to them.

SANCHEZ: You like John McCain's Cuba policy?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I do. I do. Yes.

SANCHEZ: It sounds like the Cuba policy that we had with Ronald Reagan and that we have with George Bush.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's similar, but at least on his Web site and he said in person that he would be in favor of supporting dissidents on the island and change on the island through dissidents. I like that stance.

SANCHEZ: Barack Obama says what's wrong with sitting down with somebody? Getting in their face, screaming at them, and saying -- no, no, no, you're wrong. That's not being nice to them.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't think it's bad to have communication. Obviously, communication is the way to a healthy relationship and if that's what we want between Cuba and the U.S. eventually then that's what we should work for. But before we get to that point, I just think that we need to have some principles established first.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Obama does not want to loosen the embargo. He just wants free travel for family. He wants families to be allowed to give money to their family to help dissidents there as well. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He comes writing Chavez on his (INAUDIBLE) right up has been strengthening the regime ever since then. So at this point, any increase in remittances, any travel that we allow for Cuban Americans, the amount of strength that it's going to bring to the regime is nothing compare to what Chavez is doing already.

RICK SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR (on camera): So you're saying we shouldn't soften at all?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

SANCHEZ: But it's been 50 some years now.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And that's just the thing. That's why there hasn't been any sort interventionist policy because we just kind of assume that communism is just going to fall on its face by itself.

SANCHEZ: Has the policy worked? No, it hasn't worked. So why continue a policy that doesn't work many would ask? Anybody?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So it doesn't get even worse.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SANCHEZ: So it doesn't get any worse. Having the ball doing this, by the way, talking to many people who are energized by this campaign all over the country. You can join "The League of First Time Voters," yourself, by the way. Just go to cnn.com/league. Cnn.com/league.

Let me know what you've got. Maybe I'll pay you a visit. Maybe I'll put you on TV.

Coming up, floodwaters have devastated parts of Iowa and it's still not over. More pictures are coming in. The waters has to go somewhere. They are bracing now downstream. We're all over this.

Also 400 militants bust out of an Afghan prison and we're being told not to worry about this. Not to worry about this. We'll be back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: This is something to think about that's not often said. You heard it before. Americans are not exactly the sharpest tools in the shed lately. We're weak in geography. The numbers bare it out in government and in history.

Straight ahead, a man who says our ignorance, collectively is ruining American democracy. That there's a price to pay.

Welcome back. I'm Rick Sanchez here in the World Headquarters of CNN. First of, an update on that historic flooding in the Midwest that we've been telling you about. This is a major story we're following tonight.

This is the University of Iowa, what it's been looking like. Really more of a lake than a college campus. Buildings swamp the swollen Iowa River forcing hundreds of people to evacuate their homes today there in Iowa City. The worst may be over in Cedar Rapids, thank goodness, as floodwaters slowly begin to recede.

But look at this. This is what people are going back to. Homes that are all but underwater. Imagine what's happened to everything inside to the furniture, to the drywall, muck left behind. It's a massive cleanup. Insurances are being called. 20,000 plus people had to leave their homes because of this. They're going to be going back tonight and tomorrow. At least some are. Those given special passes.

Let's move on to the next piece of video that we're going to share with you now. This is the residents lining up for hours to get a special little tag or wristband that allows them to go back to their home so then they can assess what the damage is in their home and then leave again. Wow.

Looking ahead, now, the Mississippi River is expected to crest this week. People in Quincy and Illinois are bracing for their turn. The National Guard is helping folks there. They've already arrived. They're sandbagging and trying to protect the city.

Joining me now is John Simon. He is the director of the Adams County Emergency Management Agency.

Tell us, if you would, what you're expecting to get hit by. Do you expect it's going to be as bad as what you've seen in places like Iowa City and Cedar Rapids?

JOHN SIMON, ADAMS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY: Rick, good evening. Thank you. You know, I tell you, what we actually really are very fortunate here in Quincy, Illinois, that the majority of the population in the city itself sits up on a bluff. But we have, you know, we have residents, we have business and industry stretching a 30-mile span within the county north and south of Quincy that are at risk of seeing record flooding.

SANCHEZ: What are you doing right now to try and prepare yourselves for this?

SIMON: Well, you know, Rick, we really have two major sandbag operations -- one, in the northern part of the county in the city of Quincy. Even though, as I said, they sit up on the bluff, the residents have come out and they started filling sandbags and those sandbags are being trucked out of there. Thousands an hour.

I think we filled to date, over $1 million sandbags right here in Adams County. They're going north of Quincy, south of Quincy, across the river to Missouri which is a vital link. We have a bridge here that is a vital link in Missouri. We share residents that work here in Quincy. And so that river is real important and we have to maintain our levee systems in order to keep our economic flow here.

SANCHEZ: Yes. Well, you know, I would imagine. John Simon, thanks so much for joining us. A famous politician is dropping by as well to do some sandbagging. We thank you. We'll be checking back with you. Hopefully, you won't get hit too hard or certainly not as bad as some of the cities to the north were.

Coming up, in Afghanistan, 400 accused terrorists including attempted suicide bombers break out of prison. Uh-oh, we'll have that.

And then we tell crime stories every day. Criminals usually go to jail, right? But what about their children? What happens to the children of people who go to America's prisons? America which imprisons more people than any other country, by the way. We'll be back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: The poll, the polls, who is ahead in the horse race? We've got fresh data and we're going to break it down with our political smart guy, Mark Preston. That's coming up.

But first, it looks like the president of Afghanistan is losing his patience with the Taliban. President Hamid Karzai is threatening to send Afghan troops into Pakistan, into those tribal safe havens to go after Taliban leaders he believes are hiding there.

It's just a couple of days since somebody broke out hundreds of militants from a prison in Kandahar. That jailbreak has all the signs of a well-organized Taliban operations, but here's something curious. NATO is playing it down. Listen to their official reaction.

Quote, "We admit it. Their guys did the job properly, but it does not have a strategic impact. We should not draw any conclusion about the deterioration of the military operations in the area. We should not draw any conclusion about the strength of the Taliban."

Not to draw any conclusions. How about this? Should we draw conclusions from this many of you would ask. Defense Secretary Robert Gates telling NATO leaders that more U.S. allied troops have died in combat in Afghanistan last month than in Iraq. That's never been the case before. Never.

Here's a breakdown. Let's put this up for you. Here it is. 17 Americans and allied troops died fighting in Iraq in May. In Afghanistan, 19.

I want to bring in Rick Shenkman now. He is an investigative journalist. He is also the author of "Just How Stupid Are We?" which says that America's democracy is a broken system in part because you and I either don't know or don't care about what's going on.

Richard, I want to show our viewers a couple of the revelations that we drew from your book. People are going to see this and maybe be amazed. I don't know. Only two out of five voters can name the three branches of the federal government. Let's put that up real quick if you can, Claude.

Only two of five voters could name the three branches of the federal government. This is American (INAUDIBLE). Only one in seven -- go to the next one -- can find Iraq on a map. Only one in five know that we have 100 U.S. senators. That's amazing stuff. Given this, how we expected to hold our government accountable for something as seemingly disturbing as the riling up of terrorists, catching them, and then letting them get away as it seems as just happened in Kandahar.

RICK SHENKMAN, AUTHOR, "JUST HOW STUPID ARE WE": Well, the problem, of course is that if Americans aren't paying attention they can't hold anybody accountable. They are fairly good at getting the big picture of success and failure.

So the reason why President Bush's poll numbers are in the cellar now and have been for a couple of years is because after the Iraq mess, after Katrina, finally the American people caught on. But in the meantime, all kinds of bad, horrible things had to happen before they start paying attention. And that's why I wrote the book. I just couldn't bear it anymore. Why Americans weren't paying enough attention to follow events and hold people accountable.

SANCHEZ: Yes. But you know, look, its one thing to have some fun with this. And a lot of late-night comedians do that and they go out and they ask people questions that they should know the answers to and they don't.

It's quite another to consider what happens to a democracy when people don't know, aren't informed. You say what about that?

SHENKMAN: Well, let's use some statistics to try to bring this home because the statistics are just appalling. On the eve of the invasion of Iraq, 60 percent of Americans were convinced that Saddam Hussein was behind 9/11. And 80 percent of those who were in favor of the war cited this bit of misinformation as one of the chief reason why they favored an invasion.

So how can you have a democracy when on an issue as important as 9/11 and Iraq -- and 9/11, you know, probably the most important event in the last half century, since the Kennedy assassination, and we can't get this basic fact right about it. How can you have a democracy that way?

SANCHEZ: So are you saying that in a democracy when the people aren't informed and this is almost one of those questions that says -- that my kids would say -- duh, about. If the people aren't informed and the people aren't paying attention then they're easy to hoodwink.

SHENKMAN: Exactly. People are sitting ducks for wily and manipulative politicians if they don't know enough. Thomas Jefferson two centuries ago said that if you expect to have freedom and ignorance, if you expect something that never was and never will be. And yet I've had a lot of resistance from people saying -- oh, you know, the American people they know enough, they get enough and they follow the news. They actually don't.

SANCHEZ: Rick, let me put you on the spot. Has this administration, the Bush administration done that or taken advantage of that more than other administrations? SHENKMAN: This is not a Republican problem. This is not a Democratic Party problem. This is an American problem. I can go back to Linden Johnson, a Democrat in the Vietnam War. He was pulling some of the same shenanigans as the Bush administration did now.

When people have power and they see that they can -- wink-wink, get by with a drop tent here or some misinformation there they do it. Just the other day, on the front page of "The New York Times" was a story about John McCain and what was he? He's going around the country saying that Barack Obama is going to raise the taxes on Americans of all backgrounds.

Then you turn to page A-20 and you find out the truth is Obama is going to cut taxes by $80 billion for certain classes, for the lower income people, for middle class and for seniors.

SANCHEZ: And Rick, your point is important. It happens on both sides. I've got to let you go because we're out of time, but I've enjoyed this conversation enough to say can we get you back?

SHENKMAN: Absolutely. I would love to come back and talk more.

SANCHEZ: We'll do it. Rick Shenkman, thanks so much for being with us. Interesting. The book is "Just How Stupid Are We?"

And it's not meant to be critical, he says, it's meant to open our eyes about something that's important. Numbers are important, by the way, and there are new numbers out this weekend about the head-to-head match up between John McCain and Barack Obama. Who's winning the big vote? We got it. That's ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: Here's something we usually don't talk about in this country. What happens to kids when their parents end up having to go to prison? You don't spend a lot of time thinking about this unless you're affected by it. And this country, by the way, that jails more people than any country in the world. That is still to come.

Welcome back to the World Headquarters of CNN. I'm Rick Sanchez. Right now, new numbers tracking the presidential race state by state. Take a look at this. The new poll of poll figures just out show Obama leading McCain among registered voters by four percentage points. That's the CNN poll of polls, where we combine them, by the way.

CNN's Electoral College map also shows some interesting stuff. You can go there by the way by going to cnn.com. It's a fun map to play with. It shows Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama separated by only four points. Four points.

Note, though, 154 electors are still up for grabs. So those are the ones you see right there. Those are the toss-up, the yellow ones.

CNN political editor Mark Preston joins us once again. "Preston on Politics," we call it, back for round two. Mark, let's start first with that poll of polls. Any news here? Four-point lead at this point by Obama. I'm also interested on your thoughts on how this thing is going to trend or has been trending.

MARK PRESTON, CNN POLITICAL EDITOR: Well, I'll tell you, right now it just shows you that the race is very, very tight. It also shows that John McCain, you know, from the time of March when he basically sewed up the nomination to right now was really not able to eat into Barack Obama's lead.

You know, at that time, he was getting hit by John McCain and Hillary Clinton. So right there it shows that the race is extremely tight, Rick?

SANCHEZ: But you said McCain wasn't able to work into his lead while Obama was fighting Hillary Clinton through the primaries. Who had the advantage there? The guy who's sitting on the sidelines waiting or the guy who's fighting and duking it out every day and making headlines all over the country?

PRESTON: Well, I don't think it was necessarily John McCain's fault either. I mean, look, right now he's looking at an economy that is going south and that the American public is very upset. Gas prices are on the rise. You know, look, issue no. 1 is the number one thing on people's mind.

At the same time he has a Bush presidency right now and Bush has very, very low approval ratings so John McCain has to deal with the Bush factor.

SANCHEZ: All right. Let's now break down what really matters. Because in this country, we don't elect people by the popular vote. We elect them by the Electoral College. We've got this map that we want to put up so people at home can see it.

I want you to break this down for us and just to let people at home know. You can see that the blue is safe for Obama. You know, states like California, New York and Illinois where most people are figuring, hey, he's going to win those, right?

Same thing with McCain with the reds. Those are states that he's going to win, but then it's all that stuff in the middle. Take us through that, Mark.

PRESTON: All that stuff in the middle. And basically, look, right now by CNN's estimation and analysis, a lot of thought put into this -- right now John McCain would have 194 electoral votes. Barack Obama would have 190. They only need 270 to win the presidency.

So what you do is you look at the battleground states. You look at Florida, you look at Michigan, you look at Ohio, you look at Virginia, look at Missouri, look in Iowa. These are all states where Barack Obama and John McCain are going to try to duke it out.

But on the margins, look, you're going to see Barack Obama who has a huge fundraising advantage try to go into states such as North Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, New Mexico, Louisiana -- these are states that are leaning Republican, but Barack Obama is going to try to make a play for those states.

On the flipside, look at John McCain trying to go into a state such as Maine, such as Washington State, such as New Jersey and try to take that out of the Democratic column.

SANCHEZ: It was interesting you mention some of the southern states there. Boy, it's been a long time since Democrats have been well in a national election and some of those southern states could be a whole new ball game.

Mark Preston, great to have you. "Preston on Politics" is what we call it. Thanks, Mark.

PRESTON: Thanks, Rick.

SANCHEZ: Coming up, a criminal goes to jail, end of story, right? No. What happens to their kid?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: This is important. This is that story I mentioned earlier that a lot of us as Americans don't often think about. What happens when a parent is sent to jail? The innocent victims are, you know who? Kids left behind.

They didn't commit a crime. They didn't do anything wrong. Tonight, CNN Hero is trying to maintain that critical bond, trying to change this, trying to help kids in that bond between jailed moms or dads and their children.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hello, Cameron (ph), this is your father.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi, JJ, it's Mommy. I love you very much.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mommy just missed you.

CAROLYN LECROY, CHAMPIONING CHILDREN: The children of incarcerated parents are the silent victims of the parents' crimes. These children, they're forgotten sometimes.

My name is Carolyn LeCroy and I started "The Messages Project" so that incarcerated parents can keep in touch with their kids.

In 1994, I was arrested and charged with possession of marijuana. I was very fortunate. My children came to see me all the time. And there would be women who never got visits and I would look at them. If they were this unhappy, what about the children?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You are my sunshine, my only sunshine. You make me happy when skies are gray.

LECROY: I know how important it was for my children to see me. When I got out, I took a bad situation and I made something good of it.

Just talk from your heart. That's what this is about.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hey, Taylor, this is Daddy, buddy. I love you and I hope you enjoy this.

LECROY: They know they've made mistakes. But they're still human beings and they have children and they all love them.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is from your daddy, OK? What is that?

UNIDENTIFIED CHILD: Daddy?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I have two books here. I hope you enjoy it. One fish, two fish, red fish, blue fish, black fish, blue fish, old fish, new fish. This one has a little star. This one has a little cross. Say, what a lot of fish they are.

LECROY: We have found with the videos, for many, it's reestablishing a bond that got broken. It's hard when any parent is in prison. So, I think that makes all these children heroes.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SANCHEZ: My Man Chad Myers joining me now. And you know what we're talking about? Not weather, not news. We're talking about Father's Day because that's what this is and on Father's Day dads talking about their kids. Those are my kids, by the way, over there.

Look at them, huh?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Cute kids at Miami.

SANCHEZ: They look like my wife.

Do you have a picture of yours? Go ahead.

MYERS: You know, I have a couple of pictures. I have three generations --

SANCHEZ: Those are still mine. Those are still -- hey, can we talk about my kids? Just kidding.

MYERS: There you go. Dad, granddad, and my little guy, Grant, down there. And for my Father's Day present, my wife got me, him, a Nebraska football jersey.

SANCHEZ: Cool!

MYERS: So we went out and played football all morning. How's that? And he looked like he was walking off the field.

SANCHEZ: What's with this cornhusker stuff? You cornhusker?

MYERS: I was Harry Husker. I was the mascot, sir. How do you get the weather? You have to go through mascot school.

SANCHEZ: Your son is on his way. By the way, thanks to our wives and our kids for putting up with us and letting us get through this stuff on day to day. I guess we're out of time. Do we have time for the sports thing that we were going to show? No. We're done. All right, I didn't think so.

Thanks so much for being with us. I'm Rick Sanchez. We brought you everything we possibly can this Sunday night. More news next weekend and tomorrow on "AMERICAN MORNING." Good night.