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Campbell Brown

McCain Promotes Change; Obama Strikes Back; Sarah Palin's Poll Numbers in Alaska; Will Evangelicals Vote for McCain?

Aired September 05, 2008 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks, Wolf. Hey there, everybody. Tonight we have a special post convention edition of ELECTION CENTER. And this is where the campaign starts to get really interesting. With just 60 days to go until election day, both sides now facing their own unique challenges.
All of a sudden, Barack Obama not the only rock star in the race. With Sarah Palin bringing a lot of buzz to this new McCain/Palin ticket. Meanwhile, John McCain practically made maverick his middle name in St. Paul. Smart strategy with a deeply unpopular Republican in the White House, but McCain is a four-term senator, not exactly Washington outsider, so can he make this maverick label stick?

Also tonight, we're going to tell you about the Palin/Trooper Gate (ph) controversy. Alaska lawmakers are investigating whether Governor Palin tried to get her former brother-in-law, a state trooper, fired. Tonight we have an exclusive interview with him, that state trooper. We'll bring that to you a little bit later.

And along with all of that, two major storms taking aim at the east coast tonight. We've got breaking news on Hanna and Ike. That and more, no bias, no bull tonight right here in the ELECTION CENTER.

But first, let's get right to the remaking of John McCain. The campaign's latest theme, you heard it last night, you heard it all week, McCain the maverick. It's a point he has made in the past, but he's never quite hit it as hard as he did during his big speech at the convention last night. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I fought corruption and it didn't matter, it didn't matter if they were Democrats or Republicans, I fought the big spenders, I fought the pork barrelers (ph), my friends, when I'm president, the first earmark pork barrel bill that comes across my desk, I will veto it, you will know their names, we will make them famous and we will stop this corruption.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: All right. So can we make it stick? Well Dana Bash is covering the McCain campaign tonight in Sterling Heights, Michigan. And Dana, he's hitting the theme really hard saying he is the real agent of change here. He's the one who's going to shake up Washington. How do you make that point though given that the Republican Party has been in control of Washington for the last eight years? And he's also been a Washington insider for the last 26 years.

DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You're exactly right and that's going to be the key question of whether or not he can meet that challenge, Campbell. What he said all day today is something pretty similar to what we just heard from his convention -- we heard from his convention speech I should say last night, which is that it is because of his experience in Washington, not despite his experience in Washington, that he is and can be the agent of change.

He talked about the fact that he has been harping on pork barrel spending. In fact, he just moments ago said that he and Sarah Palin will break some China in Washington. So basically what he's trying to do is to play up his rabble-rousing image and rabble-rousing reputation, which I can tell you in covering him in the Senate happens to be real.

He likes to say he wasn't Miss Congeniality in the Senate and that is definitely a true fact. Something that he hasn't done a lot, at least in terms of the top of his themes on the campaign trail, you're right, it is now definitely front and center talking about the fact that he has been quite rebellious in Washington.

Whether or not he can convince people that because he has done that and actually has had some success, things like campaign finance reform is something he pushed that really made a lot of his fellow Republicans and Democrats angry. Whether or not he can say those are things I've done, Barack Obama has said he wants change but hasn't really done anything like he tried to do here tonight, that's going to be really probably the defining question whether or not he can actually sell that.

BROWN: All right. Dana, Sarah Palin, as you certainly know, was the toast of the convention in St. Paul. I mean she was greeted with cheers out there on the stump today. Let's listen to some of what she had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SARAH PALIN (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Senator Obama said that the surge, quote, "succeeded beyond our wildest dreams". I think that Senator Obama that the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated. I guess when you turn out to be profoundly wrong on a vital national security issue, maybe it's comforting to pretend that everyone else was wrong, too.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So her little jab there against Barack Obama, is this her role now? Is she the attack dog, the pit bull, Sarah "barracuda", whatever you want to call her, for the McCain campaign from here on out?

BASH: Well I think she's going to do it probably in the way we heard her do it in that sound bite and the way we heard it at the convention, Campbell. She is going to do it in her kind of folksy style and do it in a way that maybe will be able to relate to some of the key voters that they're trying to get at, those people who you know may like Barack Obama, may like his ideas but maybe aren't necessarily sure whether they can trust him yet.

Her key role right now, according to advisers, is to make it clear she believes that John McCain is somebody that they can -- that people can trust and to be able to basically say, you should believe me because I'm somebody just like you.

BROWN: All right. Dana Bash traveling with the McCain campaign in Michigan for us tonight. Dana, thanks.

So with just about 60 days to go, Barack Obama certainly can't waste any time trying to grab the spotlight back from McCain and from Palin. He and running mate Joe Biden campaigned today in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. It's gone Democratic in the last four presidential elections.

But Obama lost to Hillary Clinton in the primary there -- lost pretty badly to Hillary Clinton in the primary there so he can't afford to take anything for granted. And Candy Crowley has the latest on Obama and Biden for us.

Candy, I know Obama today started pushing back pretty hard against these attacks coming from the Republicans. And let's listen to what some of he had to say -- some of what he had to say today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When they say this isn't about issues, it's about personalities, what they're really saying is we're going to try to scare people about Barack. So we're going to say that you know maybe he's got Muslim connections or we're going to say that you know he hangs out with radicals or he's not patriotic. Just making stuff up.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So this is a bit of a new line from him, Candy. What's the strategy here? Is this sort of fighting fire with fire?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well actually, this sets the teeth of the McCain campaign on edge, this particular line drives them crazy because he has said it before. And they say, listen, you know nothing happened in the convention in the last four days that was anything like suggesting that Barack Obama was a Muslim or that Barack Obama has a funny first name, that it wasn't about that.

What they are certainly hoping to do at this point in the Obama campaign is take that convention and say, you know what's really interesting is what they didn't say. They didn't say how they're going to help your lives. And that's how they're going to try to turn this conversation back to what they think is their strength, which is the economy and the bad shape it's in, Campbell.

BROWN: And Candy, with so much attention focused on Governor Palin now, all eyes on the Republican ticket and Barack Obama may be getting less attention than he has in quite a while, how does he plan to steer the conversation back to his agenda?

CROWLEY: Well you know right now this campaign in the fall is now less about Barack Obama or John McCain on a national level. It is about these places they are going, where they are getting the attention. It's about the local headlines. It's about how they are connecting in this county or that county in these battleground states.

So what both these men know is that they can go into these places and they're an automatic headline. It's no longer both of them got their due in these conventions. And that until the debates is it for sort of the national conversation. They are now aiming at specific spots in specific states trying to pull in those electoral votes.

BROWN: Whole new ballgame. Candy Crowley for us tonight. Candy, thanks.

Our political panel of experts here now and I do want to know what they think about this idea of the maverick argument from John McCain. Can that put Republicans over the top? Ready to talk about that now, Bay Buchanan, a Republican strategist and former senior adviser to Mitt Romney's presidential campaign, Gloria Borger, our CNN senior political analyst, and Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist and CNN political contributor. Welcome, everybody.

Bay, for most of this campaign as I was just talking about with Dana Bash, John McCain has hammered this theme that Barack Obama is not up to the job. He doesn't have the experience that McCain has. Now coming out of the convention, whole new message. It's all about McCain the maverick reformer. How did you make that case again -- I asked Dana this -- when your party has controlled Washington for the last eight years?

BAY BUCHANAN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: You know it goes to two things. We haven't given up that other message by any matter As you could see, the Wednesday night event was all about Barack Obama. And what John McCain is doing, he's saying, one, I got the message from the American people, I know you want change and I'm going to tell you, I am somebody.

I will give you the change. Let me tell you about what I've done in Washington. I was a fighter. I took on the issues. I did things my party president wasn't happy with. I did my party wasn't happy with. And so it shows that he really was back there doing something. That does two things.

Satisfies the voters, hopefully, that's what they're hoping for -- that he really is serious, he has a record, and shows that Barack did nothing. He's just talked about it. There's no evidence that he has ever fought for any kind of legislation or has kind of a compliment that John McCain has when it comes to this kind of issue. BROWN: Well Gloria, do you think that part of -- if not changing the theme as Bay points out, sort of refocusing it to the maverick stuff and away from experience, is that they lost some of the credibility on the experience issue...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yeah.

BROWN: ... when they put Sarah Palin on the ticket?

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Look, I think they made a very calculated decision here, Campbell. The experience issue wasn't working. It didn't work for Hillary Clinton against Barack Obama in the primaries. It wasn't working for John McCain and they needed at this late time to kind of unite their base. Sarah Palin clearly does it for them. And so yes, while John McCain can say I'm experienced and I'm a reformer, I think the real question is, is the Republican Party behind John McCain's reforms?

Very often the people he was fighting when he was a reformer in Congress was his own party. So that's going to be a little bit difficult for him to get around. You know that's difficult for him to navigate.

BUCHANAN: That's been done. Gloria, it's been done. That's yesterday's story.

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well how has it been done, Bay?

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: I'll tell you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Because Sarah Palin takes care of it?

BUCHANAN: It does, completely, absolutely because what he did to those people such as myself and conservatives around the country, is he said listen, we've been fighting a lot, we disagree on a lot of things, but I'll tell you what, I won this nomination. I'll give you the future. I'm today.

I'll give you the future. I'll give you Sarah. We don't even have to do -- the party doesn't have to do anything to get out the vote. Because everybody -- all conservatives are going to be out there voting. We are so pleased. We are so delighted. We are so enthusiastic...

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Paul -- hold on -- Paul Begala, it sounds like conservatives are out there voting for Sarah Palin and not for John McCain?

PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL STRATEGIST: I don't think John McCain cares. (CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A vote is a vote. Right.

BEGALA: And I think it was a very political move for that reason. There is no sensible person who thinks that god forbid, if something happened to the president, we wouldn't want Sarah Palin running our country. I mean I don't think -- I don't think (INAUDIBLE) would have that position. But she's been an enormous political asset for McCain.

Look at Bay Buchanan how happy she is. She has not exactly been John McCain's chief cheerleader in Washington, D.C. So that's been an enormous success for them. The other success, which I think was less predictable, was how it's distracted the Democrats.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Right.

BEGALA: The Democrats -- the press does need to dig into this woman's record because it's I think appalling and the notion that she could be our president. It scares the hell out of me, but the Democrats need to get back to Bush and McCain.

George Bush is John McCain's running mate. He's got a 26 percent approval rating and John McCain votes with him 91 percent of the time. And people on this network, on this show in this interview are saying with a straight face that John McCain's a maverick because nine times out of 100 he votes against Bush. I mean you know sports reporters I think are a little less gullible than political reporters. If a baseball player bats righty (ph) 91 percent of the time, we don't describe him as a left-handed hitter...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But in fairness, Paul...

BROWN: Paul, come on, he's had a reputation for a long time as a maverick. You're right about his record with Bush and obviously that's the argument Democrats are going to lay out. But he's long had this reputation, he just hasn't highlighted it over the last year.

(CROSSTALK)

BUCHANAN: And you know what's happened here...

BEGALA: That's because he courts the -- wait -- it's because he courts the press. He votes with Bush 91 percent of the time and those times when he has disagreed, the angry right has broken his back. They brought him around.

He switched on taxes, the most important issue to the economic conservatives. He switched on abortion. He switched on gay marriage. He switched on immigration.

BROWN: All right.

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He didn't switch on abortion.

BEGALA: All the issues.

BROWN: He did switch on immigration and taxes, but not on abortion. Guys, stay with me.

BEGALA: Yes he did. I'll send you my book.

BROWN: Send me your book, Paul.

BEGALA: Coming out next week, Campbell.

BROWN: OK. Sit tight. We've got a lot more to talk about. Bay, Gloria, Paul, we're going to get back to you in just a little bit.

But up next, what you don't know yet about Sarah Palin. Some people back in Alaska are painting a very different picture of their governor. We're going to dig into that.

And then a little bit later, our exclusive interview with her state trooper ex-brother-in-law. Did she try to get him fired? You're watching a special two-hour ELECTION CENTER.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Well, her supporters are saying that Sarah Palin certainly hit a homerun in her speech to the Republican Convention. And back home in Alaska, the governor's popularity ratings are off the charts. But behind the scenes, there are whispers that not everybody thinks Palin is a superstar in her home state. CNN's Randi Kaye is in Anchorage where she is learning much more about Palin, about her personality, her friends and supporters there. Randi, what can you tell us?

RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, I can tell you that here in Alaska, the weather is unpredictable, the terrain is rugged and at times, politics can be downright nasty. And a lot of people we spoke with are pointing the finger at the state's first female governor, Sarah Palin.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE (voice-over): She's Alaska's most popular governor and she prides herself on playing tough.

SARAH PALIN (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: They say the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull -- lipstick.

(LAUGHTER)

KAYE: Some Alaskan lawmakers say this hockey mom turned governor is a pit bull, bold, outspoken, gutsy, but critics say she's also stubborn and so aggressive she will step on anyone in her way. Political analysts refer to the body count of Palin's rivals.

(on camera): Are people afraid of her? Were legislators, lawmakers afraid of her?

LYDA GREEN (R), ALASKA SENATE PRESIDENT: I got that feeling that they were somewhat intimidated.

KAYE (voice-over): Alaska Senate President Lyda Green is a Republican like Palin. Green decided not to run for another term because of differences with the governor. She admits Palin may be charming but says she governs like a one-way street. Disagree with her, and you're done. She takes it personally. State Representative Les Gara, a Democrat, says Palin sees things in black and white and is more interested in press coverage than policy.

LES GARA (D), ALASKA STATE REPRESENTATIVE: She's not the kind of leader who rolls up her sleeves and says these are the policy issues that matter and this is how it should be crafted. She tends to leave that to other people.

KAYE: Gara believes Palin is exaggerating her accomplishments. At the convention Palin implied she got construction started on a natural gas pipeline here.

PALIN: We began a nearly $40 billion natural gas pipeline to help lead America to energy independence.

KAYE: The pipeline has been approved, but won't be built until maybe 2018, if ever. It's true Palin shook up the good old boys network here and tangled with leaders of her own party over abusive power. She passed ethics reform after an FBI fundraising probe of Alaskan legislators, but lawmakers from both parties say reform had been in the works long before Palin took office.

(on camera): Is she the one who saved Alaska from corruption?

GARA: That would be a huge stretch.

KAYE: Republican pollster Marc Hellenthal says Palin has done well for the state.

MARC HELLENTHAL, ALASKA POLLSTER: She's a beacon of ethics, a symbol of ethics in an atmosphere of corruption. She symbolizes hope that our elected officials aren't all on the take.

KAYE: Which may explain her rock star ratings.

(on camera): Sarah Palin's poll numbers are the highest Alaskans have ever seen, nearly 80 percent, proving nearly two years into her term, the honeymoon is far from over. Pollsters say it's because she took on the oil industry and revamped the tax code bringing billions of dollars to Alaska.

(voice-over): This self-proclaimed fiscal conservative is putting money back in Alaskans' pockets. Rich in oil and gas, Alaska is benefiting from the rise in energy prices and enjoying a $5 billion surplus. So Palin is giving $1,200 back to every resident to help with rising fuel and heating costs. And she's taking on big oil, increasing taxes on oil companies by more than $1 billion. HELLENTHAL: Up here, from a public perspective, she deserves the nickname "Saint Sarah".

KAYE: But does she? Palin is under an ethics investigation. Did she abuse power by firing the state's public safety commissioner after he refused to dismiss her former brother-in-law? A state trooper she accused of threatening her family. And where did she really stand on the bridge to nowhere? A $330 million project, a symbol of Alaska's dependence on federal handouts.

PALIN: I told the Congress, thanks but no thanks for that bridge to nowhere. If our state wanted to build a bridge, we would build it ourselves.

(APPLAUSE)

KAYE (on camera): She takes credit for having killed the bridge to nowhere project. Is that fair?

GREEN: That was after she supported it in her campaign.

KAYE (voice-over): Green says even though the project was canceled, the money was not returned to the federal government but directed to other projects. Come election day, how much will her record matter? Many here predict Alaskans will choose style over substance.

(on camera): Does her style do well among Alaskans?

HELLENTHAL: She's a blunt, no nonsense person and that does incredibly well up here.

KAYE: Why? Why does that -- why does that work in this state?

HELLENTHAL: Because we're a blunt, no nonsense people.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE: We asked Palin's campaign spokeswoman for a response to our story and she told us that she has not been exaggerating her accomplishments especially with regard to the ethics reform. She says that nothing was being done to move the ethics reform bill forward until Governor Palin took office and that she invited the legislators to work with her on this and included them but they do not deserve the credit -- Campbell.

BROWN: All right. Randi Kaye for us from Alaska. Randi, thanks.

Sarah Palin emerged from the great white north and in 72 hours seemed to suck all the air out of the campaigns. But so far, the real value she may have for McCain is bringing conservatives, evangelicals who are on the fence on McCain back into the tent. Can she do it? We're going to talk with our panel, some of the smartest folks in politics when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Christian evangelicals are some of Sarah Palin's biggest fans right now and that's good news for John McCain because they had been at best uncertain about him. In the words of a Southern Baptist leader, "adding Palin to the ticket was like giving the Republican base a can of Red Bull". Well Gary Tuchman is in Nags Head, North Carolina for us tonight with more on all of this -- Gary.

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well Campbell, if you would have told us earlier on in this process that evangelical voters would be excited about John McCain, I would have probably said the only way he would do that is if he was disguised as Mike Huckabee. But that's what's happened and it's all because of a woman who wasn't yet in kindergarten when John McCain was a POW.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN (voice-over): Florida is a presidential toss-up state.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: (INAUDIBLE)

TUCHMAN: But the Brownsville Assembly of God in Pensacola is no toss-up church.

PALIN: They say the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull -- lipstick.

TUCHMAN: It can't be overstated how much John McCain's pick of Sarah Palin and her rousing folksy convention speech energized the seven conservative evangelical voters who watched with us.

(on camera): Before he picked Sarah Palin, how many of you were excited about John McCain? Zero. And now that you've seen her speak, how many of you are excited about John McCain? All of you. What did you think about the pick when you first heard about it (INAUDIBLE) Sarah Palin?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I was very excited. I was actually in my car and I think I yelled. I was very happy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Blown away. Thought she was fantastic.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Loved it. Just loved her, loved her family. Loved her parents, her -- I just thought she's just a great American.

TUCHMAN (voice-over): Six of the seven people in this group backed Mike Huckabee in the Republican primary.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Unlike the Democratic ticket, Senator McCain and Governor Palin believe that every human life has intrinsic worth and value.

TUCHMAN: They say Huckabee's values are their values. But none of them seem to miss him.

JERRY MURPHY, EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN VOTER: I think she is an exceptionally righteous person.

SHAY MORTON, EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN VOTER: I like the fact that she knew she was going to have a child that was going to be born with some complications and she -- where some people would have chosen to abort, she decided to have -- give the baby a chance.

TUCHMAN: And regarding her unmarried teenage daughter's pregnancy...

(on camera): She favors abstinence education for lots of people's children, but her own daughter didn't do that well with that education.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, I'm sure she did favor it for her child, but then again I mean it was up to her daughter and you know...

TUCHMAN: But that doesn't affect the way you feel about Sarah Palin?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, not at all. No, it does not reflect on her. It really doesn't.

PALIN: I guess a small town mayor is sort of like a community organizer...

(LAUGHTER)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, no.

PALIN: ... responsibilities.

TUCHMAN (voice-over): This group had no qualms about her zingers.

(on camera): And when she went on the attack, did you feel like, go get them or did you feel like maybe it's a little too much?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, go get them.

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I thought it was great.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yeah.

TUCHMAN (voice-over): And Sarah Palin, this group believes, is very qualified to be president if anything happened to John McCain.

RHONDA BREWSTER, EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN VOTER: I'm more comfortable with her being in the first chair, not more comfortable than McCain but more comfortable than Obama or Biden should something like that happen.

TUCHMAN: These evangelicals are unequivocal.

(on camera): Do you think the Republican ticket will win in November?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Absolutely.

TUCHMAN: Did you think that before you watched Sarah Palin?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not so much.

(LAUGHTER)

TUCHMAN (voice-over): John McCain is in their good graces.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

TUCHMAN: Evangelical voters are not a monolithic bloc. That's very important to mention, but it's clear this was a smart strategy to get many of them onboard, whether it's a smart strategy to win the election for president and vice president remains to be seen -- Campbell.

BROWN: Gary Tuchman for us. Gary, thanks. And let me go back to the political panel now for more on this -- Bay Buchanan and Gloria Borger, Paul Begala.

Gloria, those people in Gary's story, Christian conservatives, the base of the Republican Party, they were not psyched at all about John McCain. They're in love with Sarah Palin. What does this mean the first step toward winning the election in terms of getting Republican turnout where it needs to be?

BORGER: Exactly. It's really important. It's not only important for turnout, you know enthusiastic voters, people enthusiastic about the ticket, they go to the polls. It's also important for John McCain to raise money. These people are now going to start contributing to John McCain.

Let me also add here, Campbell, that this election is not going to be won anywhere but in the middle. Everybody's going after those Independent voters. And the key group that we ought to be watching on Sarah Palin is lower income women. Do they -- Independent women whom we didn't see in that piece. How are they going to take to Sarah Palin? Will that affect their view of John McCain?

BROWN: Paul, what do you think? Does she -- her -- the excitement that the base has about her, does that neutralize some of the energy on Obama's side which...

BEGALA: Oh no.

BLITZER: ... he's clearly had far more energy up until now from his supporters than John McCain has or is it really about what Gloria was just saying that small sliver of Independents, women that Obama hasn't quite been able to clinch.

BEGALA: You know the bases of the two parties operate under Newton's law of physics that free -- each action is an equal and opposite reaction, right? So as this move energizes those conservative, predominantly Anglo evangelical voters, it also energizes Barack Obama's base extraordinarily and especially those women.

I saw some research today that a group called Women's Voices, Women's Votes Action Fund (ph), which is progressive but nonpartisan group, did some polling in focus groups. They did a poll after Palin was picked but before she spoke, so it still may change. It was really -- it's the most dramatic divide I've ever seen.

Married women favored John McCain by just four points, but they favor McCain. It's good for McCain. Unmarried women favor Barack by 41 points, so the 45-point difference between married women and unmarried women -- and the key thing is for the first time in American history, we now have more adult women who are single than we have adult women who are married. And so it may be that the Republicans micro targeting here is off by a couple of years in going for that evangelical base.

BROWN: All right. Bay, quickly your thoughts?

BUCHANAN: Well I think that you're underestimating Sarah's appeal. There's no question of base. It's not just the evangelical. We're talking traditional Catholics. We're talking women, moms across the country. And what Paul is talking about is sure, women usually go to the Democrat, but her appeal is to women across the board. Those who are going to vote on the choice issue, sure, we're not going to win them; we never were, but those who will vote on economic issues, this woman is one of them. She's a mom, a working mom, a union member, she's a gutsy, tough lady. Women as a whole were extremely proud Wednesday night, extraordinarily excited. And I think her appeal in Pennsylvania and Ohio, is -- you take her to those union halls and you tell me she's not going to appeal to both the men, Paul, and the women.

BROWN: All right, guys, stay with me. We got a lot more to talk about. Remember when Governor Palin said, during her convention speech, how she had saved Alaska taxpayers a whole bunch of money by selling the governor's jet? Well, here's how she told the story at her convention speech. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PALIN: That luxury jet was over the top. I put it on eBay.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So, it was a big applause line, but it's a little bit misleading. Stay with us. We've got the parts of that story that both she and John McCain are leaving out, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: So now that we're finally done with the conventions, it's time to pay close attention to the CNN electoral college map. According to the polls, blue states would be in Obama's column if the elections were held right now, red states would go to McCain, Eight states too close to call, we have colored them yellow, so which way is the wind blowing? Before our chief national correspondent, John King, packed up his magic board and left the convention, we asked him to show us how those eight states could decide the election. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATL CORRESPONDENT: You could see it and feel it in this hall, Republicans leave their convention united and energized, but if you look at the fundamentals and the specifics on the electoral map, this is still an election where the Democrats are favored. You need 270 to win, Barack Obama leads solidly or slightly in states with 243 electoral votes, John McCain only 189.

So, how can the Republican ticket try to turn this map around? One thing they need to do, we call Ohio a tossup right now, John McCain has to keep it. No Republican has ever won the White House without keeping Ohio. He needs to go down here to Florida, 27 electoral votes, key in both of George W. Bush's victories. The McCain-Palin ticket has to find a way to turn that state red. If he turns those two, look what we have all of a sudden, a very hotly contested presidential race. Then it comes down to other key battlegrounds, this is a big one for the Republicans, Missouri, 11 electoral votes, a Christian conservative base in the southern part of the state. John McCain needs it.

If he takes these three traditionally Republican states, then he's in a dead heat with Barack Obama and the race comes down to smaller states with the exception of this one. This is the one traditionally Democratic state the Republicans want to try to take away. Watch the difference, if John McCain gets it, 264, within striking distance of the presidency. If Barack Obama gets it, 260, within striking distance of the presidency. Let's, for now, give it to Obama, then what happens? He needs just 10 votes, the Democrat would, to get to the magic line. Here's one place he thinks he can get some of them, Nevada, big Latino population. If Barack Obama wants that, he gets the 265.

Let's come back over here to the state of Virginia, two Democratic governors in a row, a big Obama target, red in most presidential elections, if Barack Obama can get that, he would be the next president of the United States.

So, how does John McCain deny him that? He must win Virginia, he must win Colorado, then you're in a 269-265. And this election would come down to the little tiny state of New Hampshire. John McCain won his primary there to get back in the Republican race. Barack Obama lost to Hillary Clinton. It is possible, under some scenarios, that the Independent voters in a tiny state like New Hampshire could decide who gets to be the next president of the United States.

Barack Obama favored quite significantly at the moment. The challenge for the Republican ticket, to take the energy built up here to change an electoral map that right now favor it is Democrats.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BROWN: That was chief national correspondent John King at his magic board. Now, we turn our attention to the jet that Sarah Palin put up on eBay when she became Alaska's governor. Well, fasten your seatbelts, we're got parts of the story that she and John McCain are leaving out and it could turn into a little bit of a bumpy ride.

And then later, a story you're going to want to see. Our Drew Griffin has tracked down the Alaska state trooper who is at the center of the investigation into Governor Palin's use of power. It is an interview you will only see on CNN.

And we are also tracking tonight's other big story, Tropical Storm Hanna approaching the southeast coast. Stand by, we're going to have the latest forecast when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: In her convention speech, Governor Sarah Palin said she saved Alaska taxpayers a bunch of money by selling the governor's jet. She said she put it on eBay. She told the story again in both of her campaign stops today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PALIN: We got rid of a few things in the governor's office that I didn't believe our citizens should have to pay for -- that luxury jet, it was over the top, so I put it on eBay.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Now, John McCain likes that story a lot, too. Here's what he said at this morning's campaign stop in Wisconsin.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MCCAIN: You know what I enjoyed the most? She took the luxury jet that was acquired by her predecessor and sold it on eBay and made a profit.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: And made a profit. So, no bias, no bull, here's what neither Palin nor McCain is telling you. When she put the jet on eBay it actually didn't sell. They finally sold the jet privately, but for less than the eBay asking price. CNN's has checked with both the broker who sold the jet and the Alaska businessman who bought it. According to them, the state bought the jet for $2.7 million, the state sold it for $3.1 million. But both the broker and the business many say it was sold at a loss, not a profit as John McCain said. So, a bit of an exaggeration, there. We want to go back to our panel on this. Bay Buchanan, Gloria Borger and Paul Begala.

Gloria, they're touting this story about how she put the Alaska governor's plane on eBay. Didn't exactly happen that way.

BORGER: Great story, yeah. BROWN: It was a great story. But these kinds of exaggerations, they don't work, do they?

BORGER: No, you know, great story, if true, as we say in our business, right? And, you know, look, she's got to expect this kind of scrutiny, Campbell. She's New On the national scene, this is a terrific story. She put it on eBay, it didn't sell, there wasn't a profit. But, she is going to be put under a microscope, not only by the people who vetted her for the vice presidential choice, but by the press. She's New On the national scene, she's a heartbeat away from the presidency if John McCain were to win, and these are the kinds of stories that if they come out and it's kind of a drip, drip, drip and there's an exaggeration here and something there that's a problem, that could be a problem for her.

BROWN: Bay, she also...

BUCHANAN: That's ridiculous.

BROWN: Well, let me ask you...

BORGER: Why?

BROWN: Because she also told Congress, no thanks to the "Bridge to Nowhere," that's been a line in every one of her speeches, too. But, if you look at her record, though, she supported it when she was running for governor, she supported that "Bridge to Nowhere," before she was against it. Does that line sound at all familiar? I mean, is this inexperience? I mean, why is this so ridiculous in your view?

BUCHANAN: She did turn it down. She did not use the money she got for that. That is a true and accurate statement. I mean, come on, Obama's switched on a lot of things, things as important as his position on the war.

BROWN: But she's implying, Bay, that this was her position all along.

BUCHANAN: Oh you know, no -- she never -- oh, don't be ridiculous, she never said that. She said she turned it down. All right, that's what she said. And as for that plane, she absolutely saved the taxpayers money. She got rid of it, she didn't even use it. She moved on, she didn't have expenditures on the budge line for the dumb plane, so give her credit for something.

You know, Campbell, you just did a piece, you went to Alaska, you said that she was 80 percent popularity. She's the most popular governor in the country by most count. OK, now, you interviewed two or three people, all who are her opponents who don't like her who she's ended up causing them to leave office or something. Where are the others? For every two that you found that don't like her, there's eight more that do like her, but you guys seem to have overlooked that.

(CROSSTALK) BROWN: OK, come one, we sat -- we had a roomful of people sitting there talking about how wonderful she was, what are you talking about balance?

(CROSSTALK)

That's entirely unfair.

BUCHANAN: That is not entirely unfair. You all have just gone over -- this show, this hour, should be why she's not what she says she is, the anti-Sarah show, Campbell, come on.

BROWN: All right, so let me go to Paul. Clearly Bay Buchanan got the talking points from the McCain campaign. She was very much on message tonight.

BUCHANAN: I never leave talking points, Campbell. I never leave them and don't ever accuse me of such.

BROWN: Paul...

BEGALA: No, I will say, it's actually something Bay and I agree on. We're both press bashers irrespective of what the campaigns want. I think the corporate media has fallen in love with this woman and has given her rock star status and need to give her a much thorough review of her record. In defense of governor Palin, I think that the eBay thing with the plane is within the acceptable bounds of hyperbole.

BROWN: Of hyperbole, OK.

BEGALA: She did sell it. But here's what bothers me more, the press has ignored this and I don't know why. She said, let me quote from her speech: "To the families of special needs children, I pledge to you that if we are elected we will have a friend and advocate in the White House."

This is the mother of a special needs baby, who heroically chose live, to give that Down Syndrome baby life who is also the aunt, we learned from Kyra Phillips reporting in Anchorage, of another special needs child and yet she cut funding for special needs education by 62 percent. It was $8.2 million when she came in, she cut it down to $3 million.

Now, that's a real issue. There are lots of moms and dads who have chosen life and who love their special needs babies in Alaska who now are not going to get the help they need because Sarah Palin put politics first. I think that's a more legitimate fib to talk about from Sarah Palin's speech.

BROWN: All right, I can't follow up with you because I'm not familiar with it, but it's something we'll look into it. To Bay, to Gloria...

BUCHANAN: I'm sure you will.

BROWN: Of course we will. She's running for the vice presidency of the United States, Bay. Yes, the press has every right to look at her record. Thank you very much. We're going to see you guys coming up in our next hour.

Coming up next, though, breaking news, once again, storms and hurricanes, the very latest on two storms, taking aim at the East Coast this weekend. And the stories everybody is talking about, another Sarah Palin story getting a lot of attention. Did the governor pressure officials to fire an Alaskan state trooper who just happened to be in the middle of a messy divorce with her sister? We're going to have an exclusive interview with him, still to come on this special edition of the ELECTION CENTER.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Breaking news to bring to you now, Tropical Storm Hanna is approaching the southeast coast. David Mattingly is in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, for us. We're going to talk to him in one second, but let's start with severe weather expert Chad Myers.

Chad, give us the latest.

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, have a tornado watch where David is all the way up to Virginia Beach down to almost Savannah, nut the storm will come onshore tonight, somewhere around midnight, anywhere between Charleston and Myrtle Beach maybe almost up to Holden Beach. But these waves of storms now, just wave after wave of outer bounds, about one of them about to come to David, right now. David Mattingly is about to get hit in about 10 minutes with this next band. It's still a tropical storm, 70 miles-per-hour. It could still strengthen just a little bit before it hits land.

Something else this is going to do, and I think this has lost a lot of attention, this is going to slam into Long Island on Saturday night into Sunday morning and that could cause damage at 50 or 60 miles-per-hour because we've been focusing so far down to the south. There's Ike, a big-time storm it is going to be a Category 3, possibly a Category 4 storm, making a run either at Cuba or south Florida and then possibly, possibly, Campbell, into the Gulf of Mexico and where it goes from there, we don't even want to think about that. Five days out right now, it could be right, it could be left, but the middle of the cone still takes it through the Florida Keys and the Florida Straits.

BROWN: A lot to keep an eye on. OK, Chad, thanks.

Let's turn now to David Mattingly in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

And David, tell me the biggest worry right now for people there. Are they getting ready?

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well Campbell, we're feeling one of those squall lines Chad was talking about each time the wind gets a little harder, the rain stings just a little bit more as it hits your face and these bands continue to come through. The one thing officials are worried about was that officials may not be taking this storm as seriously as they should be. There were a lot of people out on the beach today, a lot of people looking around at the surf. Officials were saying, please, you need to stay inside, you need to stay out of this wind, out of this rain. And they were telling people there is a voluntary evacuation order, as of tonight. There were about 60 (ph) people in the local shelter in this county. A lot of people are going to the hardware stores looking for flashlights and batteries, but they weren't buying any wood to board up their doors and windows. That tells you that people are expecting to be in the dark tonight, Campbell, but not in danger.

BROWN: All right, David Mattingly for us tonight. David, thanks. We are going to keep an eye on what's happening and we'll have more for you coming up a little bit later.

When we come back after the break, the Alaska state trooper in the political spotlight. Sarah Palin reportedly wanted to fire this guy, her former brother-in-law. He's going to talk about it in a CNN exclusive interview. That's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Now we turn to a CNN exclusive. As Sarah Palin campaigns for one of the most powerful jobs in America, she is also under investigation for possible abuse of her powers as governor of Alaska. At the center of an official probe into Palin's behavior is an Alaska state trooper, her former brother-in-law. The question, did Palin try to get him fired. And was Alaska's former public safety commissioner then fired because he failed to go along. Well, Drew Griffin of the CNN's "Special Investigations Unit" is in Anchorage, Alaska looking into this controversy.

And Drew, you sat down with trooper, Mike Wooten. What are you learning?

DREW GRIFFIN, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, we're learning that if this is indeed Sarah Palin's trooper gate, then Mike Wooten is not the possible poster boy the Obama campaign would want to put up as a police officer with a stellar record. He has a very spotty record on the state patrol of the Alaska State Troopers. He sat down with us. He answered every single question we gave him about his record, about his suspension, about his killing of a moose illegally, about threats he may or may not have made to Sarah Palin's father. And then he answered the most egregious question of all we had was: did you indeed taser your stepson?

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

You have the headlines about you, tasered a stepson when you were a taser officer. Shot a moose illegally when you were a wildlife officer. Two separate incidents where somebody saw you drinking in a car driving. True?

(END VIDEO CLIP) Uncomfortable, but he did answer it. Coming up at 8:00, we'll have those answers, along with the rest of this story on whether or not Governor Palin did indeed try to pressure a state official to fire her ex-brother-in-law -- Campbell.

BROWN: All right, quite a tease there, Drew. Stay right there, we're going to have a lot more from you coming up in just a little while.

But, coming up next, the very latest on the dramatic standoff in a Chicago area bank. An armed gunman took a dozen hostages this afternoon, and held off police for hours. We're going to have that story when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Erica Hill with me now to give us tonight's briefing -- Erica.

ERICA HILL, CNN NEWS CORRESPONDENT: A few things to catch up on, Campbell. And we begin actually, a tense standoff just ended at a suburban Chicago bank. Police say the man who took a dozen hostages shot himself to death. Police say they were trying to arrest him after a hit-and-run accident nearby. Police also say he held a knife to an officer's throat, got his gun and then ran inside the bank. But all the hostages are OK.

Two economic wakeup calls tonight, and together they could equal a recession. Last month's jobless rate hit 6.1 percent, that is the highest in five years. And a record four million American homeowners are now behind on their mortgage payments. Foreclosure rates are up in 35 states -- Campbell.

BROWN: All right, Erica, and coming up next, you have a very fascinating candid conversation. Erica sat down last night with a group of women from all different walks of life to find out what they think about Sarah Palin as a mother, as a wife, as a vice presidential candidate. Erica's going to have that when we come back.

And then later, showcasing McCain and Palin, the Republican convention, supposed to be all about stagecraft, so what is with the return of the green screen? We're going to explain in this special two-hour ELECTION CENTER. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: One of the biggest reasons why John McCain put Sarah Palin on the Republican ticket is to attract women voters. Tonight, is it working? Well, Erica Hill went to Detroit in the all-important tossup state of Michigan to check with some female voters. And what did you find? What was the reaction?

HILL: One of the most important things is, as you said, the McCain campaign put her on the ticket for a reason and that strategy was not at all lost on the eight women that we spoke with. As you mentioned before the break, a very diverse group of women, we're talking Republicans, Democrats; they range in age from 26 to 59. But again, they all know exactly what the McCain campaign is trying to do here and they're not all happy about it.