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Campbell Brown

Lipstick Politics

Aired September 10, 2008 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Hey there, everybody.
Tonight, playing the victim card, it's the new Republican strategy, and it's getting to Barack Obama. Today, he's pushing back hard. What's it all about?

Well, by now, you have probably heard that Obama made a remark yesterday saying you can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig.

Here right now is our no bias, no bull reality check. No, he was not suggesting that Sarah Palin is a pig. Yes, the McCain campaign says that he was. Lipstick on a pig is a phrase that Obama has used many times. And guess what? John McCain has used it, too.

And, no, just because Sarah Palin is the only woman in the race, that does not mean she owns all language involving lipstick. Last night, when we heard about the story, we thought it was too silly to put on the show. We tried to focus on other issues.

Today, though, it is worth discussing, because charging sexism, which is what the McCain/Palin campaign is doing, has serious implications for the campaign, and frankly, for women, women who are truly victims of sexism.

So, now, you might remember Hillary Clinton said that she was a victim of sexism on occasion during this campaign. Listen to what Sarah Palin had to say when Clinton complained about sexism.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. SARAH PALIN (R-AK), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: But, fair or unfair, I think she does herself a disservice to even mention it, really. I mean, you have got to plow through that. You have to know what you're getting into, which -- I say this with all due respect to Hillary Clinton and to her experience and to her passion for changing the status quo, also.

But when I hear a statement like that coming from a woman candidate with any kind of perceived whine about that excess criticism or maybe a sharper microscope put on her, I think, man, that doesn't do us any good, women in politics or women in general wanting to progress this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: A very different message from the McCain/Palin campaign today. And we're going to talk about this Republican decision to play that victim card with our panel tonight, some pretty strong opinions on all sides.

But, first, Obama's angry reaction today.

Candy Crowley with me now in the studio.

Nice to have you in the studio and live and in person.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Barack Obama pushed back pretty hard today. Let's listen to what he had to say first.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Spare me the phony outrage. Spare me the phony talk about change. We have real problems in this country right now. And the American people are looking to us for answers. Not distractions, not diversions, not manipulations.

This whole thing about lipstick, nobody actually believes that these folks are offended. Think about it, right? These are the Republicans who spent a whole bunch of time getting all huffy about, why are you being all politically incorrect? Suddenly, they're up on their -- oh, we're shocked. We're -- everybody knows it's cynical. Everybody knows it's insincere. The media knows it. This is a game that we play. It's game. It's a sport.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Now, Candy, Obama may be right. This may be strategy, it may be phony outrage, but the fact of the matter is it's thrown him off his game a little bit, hasn't it?

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: It absolutely has.

And part of the problem, and I think you see that strategy sort of evolving in that sound bite, and that is, this is ridiculous. What matters are these issues, that the stakes are high, so they believe that, once you can get back to the issues, education, health care, the war, that the Democrats have the advantage.

But he's been so pounded lately, and so really frankly kind of stunned by the whole Palin phenomenon, as Obama calls it, that they just really have seemed flat-footed.

I talked to a strategist yesterday before the lipstick on a pig remark, and I said, well, what's your Palin strategy? And he messaged back and said, well, we have no Palin strategy.

And I thought, exactly.

(LAUGHTER)

BROWN: They are trying to get one.

(CROSSTALK)

CROWLEY: Yes. And he said, look, this is about Barack Obama and John McCain. Yes, we will bring her up because we think her selection goes to hypocrisy and judgment, but, beyond that, we understand this is for the top of the ticket. But they still quite get off it.

BROWN: There are a lot of Democrats who are having sort of this recurring nightmare right now, like all of the -- all systems are aligned if you look at the conditions in the country. All the polling points to the fact that Democrats should win this, no-brainer. And, yet, the polls couldn't be tighter between the two of them.

CROWLEY: Absolutely.

I talked to a Democratic elected official today, and he said, my heavens, the poll numbers for Republicans and President Bush are below freezing. Everybody hates the Iraq war, the economy is a mess, and we're tied.

And they think part of the problem is, they do want him to hit back. They want him to be tougher. Remember, during the primary, when Hillary Clinton kept saying, I have been tested, I understand what's coming at me, you need someone like me?

BROWN: Right.

CROWLEY: Well, this is what they have feared. This is what Democrats now say, he just needs to get out there and start slugging.

BROWN: All right, Candy Crowley for us tonight -- Candy, as always, thanks.

And joining me now to talk about all this, Tony Blankley, former press to Newt Gingrich, who is now with the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, Democratic strategist and CNN political contributor Donna Brazile, and CNN senior political analyst Gloria Borger.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Gloria, you can't overstate I think how hard the McCain campaign has been hitting this sexism card. John McCain brought up the lipstick comment in an interview today with Telemundo. He was asked what he hates most about the campaign. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Probably the negativism, all these negative ads and personal attacks, Senator Obama's recent comments about lipstick on a pig.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BROWN: That's really what he hates most about this campaign.

So, Gloria, that's what they're really banking on, this sort of politics of victimhood, aren't they?

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: This is just hardball, tactical, and yes, even really cynical politics by a campaign that has decided it wants to win, Campbell.

And they're going after these women voters. We know about six of 10 of the women voters who supported Hillary Clinton are now for Barack Obama. But they're looking at those other four in 10, and they're saying, gee, if we could get a few of those, and we have got male voters with us, then we can win this election. So, they're changing the subject. They don't want to talk about the economy, because that's Barack Obama's issue set.

And they're talking about this because they think it's a way to get women.

BROWN: Tony, I have got to play something again that Palin herself said back in March. She was attacking Hillary Clinton for complaining about getting tougher media coverage and the issue of sexism. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PALIN: I think she does herself a disservice to even mention it, really. I mean, you have got to plow through that. When I hear a statement like that coming from a woman candidate with any kind of perceived whine about that excess criticism or maybe a sharper microscope put on her, I think, man, that doesn't do us any good.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: It flies in the face of what her own campaign is doing right now, doesn't it, Tony?

TONY BLANKLEY, EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR, "THE WASHINGTON TIMES": Earlier in the week, the Obama campaign played the race victim card when Governor Paterson said that, when Rudy Giuliani mentioned community organizer, it was really a race card. They didn't mean that. Both campaigns play the same game.

But what I know is we're now at the end of six days after the Republican Convention, and Obama has not had one day in which he's delivered his message. He's been on the McCain message all day, every day for six days. And days that you waste the beginning of September, you pay for dearly at the end of October.

BROWN: So, you say it's working, stick with it, do whatever you have got to do?

BLANKLEY: Do you think that the Obama people like the messages they have been delivering for the last six days? I know they don't and you know they don't. And they're undisciplined. And that's why they're off their message. And they're playing on McCain campaign's strategy book.

BROWN: Donna, give me your take.

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Campbell, they're playing the same card -- the two cards that the Republicans have always played, to distract the American people from the real issues facing the country, bread-and-butter issues, and then attack your opponent.

Rick Davis, Mr. McCain's campaign manager, said this campaign is about personality, not issues. And, clearly, this is part of their tactic. Early this summer, they accused Senator Obama of playing the race card, and now the gender card.

I'm sure, next week, they will accuse him of playing some other card. But this is the same old deck of cards that we have seen played throughout the last 20 years.

(CROSSTALK)

BRAZILE: And the McCain campaign shouts every morning the loudest, and then they are doing frontal attack. And the Obama campaign must not only get back to their message, but continue to attack the problems that the American people want their leaders to attack.

And if they do that, Senator Obama can get back on offense.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Donna, in fairness, it's not just Republicans, because here is what Hillary Clinton said in May of this year just as her campaign was winding down.

She said: "Every poll I have seen shows more people would be reluctant to vote for a woman than to vote for an African-American, which rarely gets reported on. The manifestation of some of the sexism that has gone on in this campaign is somehow more respectable, or at least more accepted."

So, in fairness, it's not just Republicans who have done this. How is what Clinton did any different from what the McCain campaign is doing now?

BRAZILE: Look, 20 years ago, it was very difficult for women and minorities to run at this level, for president and vice president. We have seen a lot of barriers come down.

So, today, we have a biracial candidate at the top of the ticket and a woman on the other ticket. This is going to be an unconventional election year. We can't just continue to say sexism, racism, as if this doesn't have real implications in people's lives out there in the country. The truth is, is that they should focus on the issues, attack the problems, and get away from these personality- based attacks.

(CROSSTALK)

BLANKLEY: Can I get in this for a second?

BROWN: OK, quickly, Tony, and then I will give Gloria the last word.

BLANKLEY: Yes.

Today, the Democratic chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, Ms. Fowler, used -- said the only thing that Governor Palin has done has been to not be aborted or something.

(CROSSTALK)

BLANKLEY: She had to apologize.

(CROSSTALK)

BLANKLEY: Both sides play this game.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: And she should apologize, Tony. But we're not talking about -- the head of the Democratic Party in South Carolina is not John McCain saying this. And that's different.

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: We're not covering that as an issue.

BLANKLEY: There are crocodile tears being shed. Both parties are consistently playing the personality game, negatively and positively, every day of the week.

(CROSSTALK)

BORGER: It's clear -- it is clear with this lipstick on a pig thing that the McCain campaign is spoiling for a fight.

First of all, they came out talking about being reformers and the party of change. Now they're looking for women voters. And that's what this is about. It's an election. It's a war, and they're looking for a fight, and they have got one. And they do have Barack Obama back on his heels.

(CROSSTALK)

BLANKLEY: I agree with the last sentence.

BROWN: OK, guys, hang tight. We're coming back.

When we come back: How should Obama respond to this? He's on his heels, as Gloria just pointed out. Everyone agrees. Does he need to get tough to counter the McCain campaign tougher?

Also ahead, you knew David Letterman would weigh in on this. Well, stay with us. Hear what Barack Obama told him.

Later, there is real sexism in politics. We are going to show you who really has crossed the line, no bias, no bull, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Senator Barack Obama is on CBS' "Late Show with David Letterman" tonight. They taped it a few hours ago, and instead of playing it all for laughs, Letterman asked about, well, you guessed it, lipstick. Here's what Obama had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "THE LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN")

DAVID LETTERMAN, HOST, "THE LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN": Have you ever actually put lipstick on a pig?

(LAUGHTER)

OBAMA: You know, the answer would be no.

(LAUGHTER)

OBAMA: But I think it might be fun to try.

(LAUGHTER)

OBAMA: This is sort of silly season in politics, not that there's a non-silly season.

LETTERMAN: All right.

OBAMA: But it gets sillier. And it's a common expression in at least Illinois. I don't know about New York City. I don't know what you put lipstick on here.

(LAUGHTER)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Continuing our discussion now, Tony Blankley, Donna Brazile, and Gloria Borger.

And, Donna, Senator Obama clearly trying to have a little fun with this, but he wasn't smiling about this morning. As Candy Crowley told us earlier, team Obama was pretty much caught off guard by this, by Sarah Palin more generally. And when she said, "Do you have a Sarah Palin strategy?" they said no. Should they be getting one fast?

BRAZILE: Well, I think they should continue to have a John McCain strategy, because John McCain has voted with George Bush 90 percent of the time, and Sarah Palin agrees with John McCain.

They must avoid the trap that the Republicans are setting for them, get back on the message, override the negative narrative that the Republicans are painting, so that Senator Obama can get back out there and propose real solutions that voters are looking for this election.

BROWN: Gloria, Obama may have woken up this morning and read "The New York Times," because let me just read quickly what Tom Friedman wrote.

"Whoever slipped that Valium into Obama's coffee needs to be found arrested by the Democrats, because Obama has gone from cool to cold. Somebody needs to tell Obama, if he wants a chance to calmly answer the phone at 3:00 a.m. in the White House, he's going to need to start slamming down some phones at 3:00 p.m. along the campaign trail."

Gloria, is he being too passive?

BORGER: You know, yes, I remember the criticism of Barack Obama when he was going up against Hillary Clinton during the primaries. It was the same question. Is he tough enough? Can he fight back?

I think we started to see that a little bit today when he said, enough. What people like about Barack Obama is that he's direct and he can be gutsy.

And the Democrats I have been talking to today, Campbell, want to see more of both, but they want to see him do it on the economy. They want to see him talk about the $500 billion deficit, tax cuts for the middle class, health care, all of the issues that really favor the Democrats this year. That's what he's got to continue to talk about and forget about Sarah Palin.

BROWN: And, Tony, the Obama team, they're counting -- Candy was telling us about this -- on the excitement to sort of wear off.

After all, Mondale got this big bounce after he picked Geraldine Ferraro, but it disappeared pretty quickly.

BLANKLEY: Well, I was working for Reagan in '84, and it didn't disappear that quickly. That skyrocket went up for several weeks before it flattened. And she had a big press conference she did very well in. It was a couple months before we were able to get our sea legs back. He doesn't have that much time, because of the late convention this time.

But I think what is interesting is that Palin has sucked so much oxygen out of the political scene that Biden can't get in to deliver an effective message. So, what we have is the presidential candidate, Obama, doing the attacks on the vice presidential candidate, Palin, instead of the other way around. He should be attacking McCain, and Biden should be attacking Palin. But he can't get any airtime, because no one pays attention to Biden. He's the Amelia Earhart of this campaign season.

BROWN: And the problem is, a lot of people think Sarah Palin is the rock star and not John McCain right now.

All right, Tony, Donna, and Gloria, I know we're all going to get back to you guys later in the hour. Stay with us. Both candidates have said things probably that they regret. We're going to call them out on the real sexism in this campaign, no bias, no bull, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: We have been talking about the Republicans playing the victim card on sexism, but it's also a lot about saying stupid things, taking things out of context. Sexism is part of it, of course, and it's unacceptable.

Ed Henry has been digging into what both candidates have said. And here it is in their own words, no bias, no bull.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): While everyone is pointing fingers, the truth is, both presidential candidates have uttered plenty of things to make any woman cringe.

At the famous Sturgis biker rally in South Dakota last month, John McCain joked about getting his wife involved in a raunchy topless beauty contest.

MCCAIN: So, I encouraged Cindy to compete.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

MCCAIN: I told her, with a little luck, she could be the only woman ever to serve as both the first lady and Ms. Buffalo Chip.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

HENRY: Ten years ago, at a political fund-raiser, McCain told a crude joke. "Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because Janet Reno is her father." He later apologized.

(on camera): The pig comment was not Obama's first brush with charges of sexism. In April, he called a female factory worker "sweetie." And, then, during a visit to the battleground state of Michigan, he uttered it again to a female reporter.

QUESTION: Senator, how are you going to help the American autoworkers?

OBAMA: Hold on one second, sweetie.

HENRY (voice-over): He realized how he came across and later left this pained voice-mail to the reporter.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

OBAMA: That's a bad habit of mine. I do it sometimes with all kinds of people. Mean no disrespect. And, so, I'm duly chastened on that front.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

HENRY: In the run-up to the South Carolina primary, McCain raised eyebrows when a Republican voter shouted this insult of Senator Hillary Clinton.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How do we beat the bitch?

HENRY: Of course, it's not McCain's fault that she said it, but he nearly laughed it off, instead of slamming it for being demeaning.

MCCAIN: Can I give the translation?

(LAUGHTER)

HENRY: Clinton was at the center of another bad gender moment for Obama. During a New Hampshire debate, a moderator asked Clinton about why some voters seem to like Obama more.

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: Well, that hurts my feelings.

(LAUGHTER)

(APPLAUSE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm sorry, Senator. I'm sorry.

CLINTON: But I will try to go on.

(LAUGHTER)

CLINTON: He's very likable. I agree with that. I don't think I'm that bad.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: You're likable enough.

HENRY: Sexist? Not really. But condescending? Big-time.

Ed Henry, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: All right, I want to bring back our panel of super savvy political observers to talk about this, Tony Blankley again, former press secretary to Newt Gingrich, Democratic strategist Donna Brazile, and Gloria Borger.

You know, Tony, I think as most women could attest, there's still a lot of serious sexism out there, real sexism, I mean, women getting paid less than men, way fewer women in elected office generally, I mean, real problems, real issues. By crying sexism with something like lipstick on a pig, is the McCain campaign diminishing really serious issues that a lot of women are facing?

BLANKLEY: Look, I think, in the battle of the sexes, there are few men who are truly innocent combatants. And I'm certainly not going to defend either gender as being purely innocent.

Obviously, women over history have been in a subordinate position and only recently are they gaining something close to equality. And we're not there fully yet.

But that's aside from the fact, in any particular day of communicating, one campaign is doing better than the other. And, this week, whatever you think about the ethics or the aesthetics of the strategy, McCain is winning the communications battle.

BROWN: So, Gloria, how do you think this stuff is playing out in the real world? How are women hearing this debate, and are there risks for both campaigns?

BORGER: Well, yes, as you know, Campbell, women are not monolithic here.

And so I have talked to lots of women today about this. And some women, particularly conservative women, will say, gee, he was being sexist. And women who are Democrats are saying, no, don't be ridiculous; he wasn't talking about Sarah Palin.

I tend to agree with the notion that he was actually talking about John McCain, if you look at those quotes. What this shows me, Campbell, though, is how important women voters have become. Women voters are the key swing bloc in this electorate. And the campaign will do anything they can to get them.

And some people now are saying, gee, maybe he should have put -- maybe Barack Obama should have put Hillary Clinton on this ticket, because then he wouldn't have to go trolling for women voters the way he is now. And maybe John McCain wouldn't have put Sarah Palin on his ticket if Hillary had been with Obama.

BROWN: Donna, you agree with that?

BRAZILE: Well, I think Senator Obama made a wise chose. It was a choice he made regarding his own ticket. And I don't want to revisit that issue. I have heard that over the last couple of days.

But I think it's a distraction. Look, women make, as you well know, 77 cents for every dollar a man earns. Minority women make far less. Single women out there spend more than 40 percent of their income on child care. There are real issues that women would like to see these candidates address.

BORGER: Right.

BRAZILE: And using gender, playing the victim card, that's not what women want. They want change and they want a new direction in this country. And they want candidates to address the fundamental bread-and-butter challenges that they face each and every day of their lives.

BROWN: All right, guys, we're going to end it there. It will be interesting to see whether this does backfire, keeping the focus on issues like this, with a lot of women out there.

We will see. We will be following the polls very closely. Much appreciate our panel being with us.

And we should mention we have brand-new polls from four of the crucial tossup states that will tip the balance in this presidential election. Both McCain and Obama will have something to cheer about, yes, both.

And, then, a little bit later, no bias, no bull, a look at Sarah Palin's record of asking for pork barrel earmark projects before she started opposing all those earmarks -- the results of a CNN special investigation still to come right here in the ELECTION CENTER.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Time for the women and the challenges they face in our economy. They all know that they handle ...

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: A real battle in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. That's Obama and McCain supporters shouting over each other when McCain dropped by a diner to shake some hands. Pennsylvania, just one of the tossup states that will tip the balance this November. And each Wednesday we're going to put some of those states under the microscope and unveil our CNN/"Time" Opinion Research battleground polls.

Taking us through the numbers today, chief national correspondent John King who is joining me tonight from the battleground State of Michigan. And John Michigan, one of the four crucial battlegrounds we just polled. What are the numbers telling us?

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They tell us close, close, close, and close, Campbell. Let's take a closer look at some of the states and I'll begin where I am here in Michigan, 17 electoral votes in play here. Our new poll, Obama, 49 percent. McCain, 45 percent. About as close as you can get. Missouri, 11 electoral votes. McCain ahead in a state Republicans have won in the past. Fifty percent for McCain, 45 percent for Obama. The small state of New Hampshire, could be critical, only four electoral votes. Obama ahead at the moment 51 percent to 45 percent, and finally tonight, Virginia, 13 electoral votes, one of those states Obama hoped to turn from red to blue. At the moment, though advantage McCain, 50 percent to 46 percent. All of those margins, though, Campbell, very, very close which signifies we're inside eight weeks now. All four of these states still toss-up, as the campaigns try to put together enough states to get to the magic number of 270.

BROWN: What does it mean in terms of the big picture? Does it change anything, these new numbers in terms of the electoral map? KING: It doesn't change anything on the CNN electoral map as we now have it. We have 243 electoral votes in the states that carry either solidly or leaning Obama. John McCain following, I believe he is at 189 in our latest count, 270 is the magic number. So these new polls don't change anything although if there's any momentum in these new polls, we have to say it's for McCain. Pulling a bit ahead in Missouri. He needs that state. Pulling ahead in Virginia. That is a key Obama target. And being so close in a state like Michigan who hasn't gone Republican for president in 20 years.

So a slight advantage this week, we would say, for McCain. Here's one thing to watch, Campbell, going forward. Here in Michigan, a big advantage for McCain among white voters. Also a big advantage for McCain among white voters in Missouri and Virginia. Obama needs to deal with that weakness, otherwise these states are going to trickle away.

BROWN: John with all the numbers for us tonight. John, thanks.

And we're going to have more on the toss-up states in a second and then what both candidates will do about your taxes. The fact checking of Ali Velshi when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: So we just told you how it's neck and neck right now between McCain and Obama in so many of the toss-up states. These are the polls conducted by "Time Magazine". And we want to bring in now Mark Halperin, "Times" editor at large and senior political analyst. And we just want your analysis on the numbers John just took us through. He tells us that McCain leading in Virginia and Missouri. Both of those went for bush in 2004. He must hold all of the states that went to Bush in 2004 to win this thing, right?

MARK HALPERIN, "TIME MAGAZINE": He could lose a couple. The key for McCain is two things. From his point of view, he's got to win the exact states President Bush won in 2004, or win maybe a Michigan or perhaps a Pennsylvania away from Obama who were in the blue category. The other important thing this poll suggests is he's in a better position than he was just a few weeks ago because Obama's path to 270 has narrowed. He's in a strong position in terms holding most of the blue states, in fact all of them that Kerry won, but his ability to encroach on red states like a Missouri I think has gone down since McCain's very successful convention.

BROWN: What should Obama be doing? If there is one or two target states, what are they?

HALPERIN: Well, Virginia and Colorado have been at the top of their list. Our poll has Virginia close but McCain ahead. If you look back a few weeks ago, in private polling and some public polling, Obama was doing better in some of these red states, like a Virginia, than he is doing now. The question is, is it a bounce from the convention, or can Obama really compete? Virginia and Missouri are two they have been looking at, much more Virginia than Missouri, but Obama needs to make some tougher choices. McCain has the good news/bad news thing. The blue states aren't tempting for him because he's too far behind. Obama has the tough choices. Does he spent resources, time and money in Missouri. Or does he look like a poll like this and his own private polling say, you know what? It's tempting to win some of these red states, but we can't do it. We have to focus on the battlegrounds.

BROWN: What is the Palin effect on this? Is there? Or is it too early to get a read on that?

HALPERIN: It's a little early to see what the sustained effect will be.

I think the biggest effect is she's been a huge contributor to what I was talking about before. For McCain to be able to lockdown some of the red states, like a Missouri, is critically important to him, because again, you want to be playing offense and not defense. It's not a national contest. It's a fight for the 270 electoral votes. The more Palin energizes the base, brings back Republicans and lukewarm independents who lean Republican to the Republican ticket, the better it is for McCain to be able to say clearly now he doesn't need to worry about Alaska. If he doesn't have to worry about North Dakota, Montana, perhaps even Missouri, perhaps even Virginia, that's a big advantage for John McCain.

BROWN: Mark Halperin for us. It's going to get interesting.

HALPERIN: It already is.

BROWN: And so few people deciding all of this. All right, appreciate it. Thanks for being here.

HALPERIN: Thank you.

BROWN: And we should mention, too, since Mark is here, it's a "Time" magazine event, join me here tomorrow for live coverage of the presidential candidate's forum on national service.

Both candidates say they're going to cut your taxes and the other guy won't. We're going to put those claims to our no-bias, no-bull test.

And also a little bit of breaking news tonight. Two major earthquakes in Asia we're hearing about. We're going to have the details for you when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Listen up, people, since we're going to talk about something we know you care a lot about, your money and how much is going to the tax man. Our latest poll shows voters are almost evenly split on which presidential candidate would do a better job handling taxes. Forty nine percent say McCain would, 46 percent say Obama would. The subject of who would make you pay more and give you am biggest tax break comes up almost every speech the candidates make. So let's listen to what they're saying and put it to our no bias, no bull test. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MCCAIN: All you ask of the government is to stand on your side, not in your way. That's just what I intend to do, stand on your side and fight for your future. My friends, I'll keep your taxes low. I'll open new markets for our goods and services. I'll cut government spending, and my opponent believes in big government, bigger spending, and higher taxes. We're not going to do that.

OBAMA: John McCain runs ads continually and his running made is saying the same thing, that I'm going to raise people's taxes.

When every independent group has looked at it and said that Barack Obama will provide a tax cut to 95 percent of working Americans. Ninety five percent of working Americans will have a tax cut.

You've got conservative publications like the "National Review" and analysts at the Heritage Foundation who are acknowledging that my tax plan provides more relief to the average American than John McCain's does. In fact, he leaves 100 million people out. Don't get a dime of tax relief.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Senior business correspondent Ali Velshi is here to put what the candidates are saying about taxes to our no bias, no bull test. Ali, start with what McCain just said for us. Is it as black and white as he says, that his plan is going to keep taxes lower for Americans, Obama's, it is going to make everybody's taxes go up.

ALI VELSHI, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Not for most Americans, that's not true. Just to put this in perspective, the median income in America is $51,000. OK. So we have broken it down. The Tax Policy Center has taken both of these candidates' policies and said based on your income what you're likely to see your income tax bill change by under both of them.

Let's start with the first category, lowest income earners, $38,000 to $66,000. Remember, the medium income in America, 51,000. Under John McCain, your bill in 2009 could go down by $325. Under Barack Obama, nearly three times as much, down by more than $1,000. Let's move to one category higher, $66,000 to $112,000 a year. Under John McCain. Your bill goes down almost $1,000. Under Barack Obama, it goes down by $1,200.

Here's where it starts to change. If you make more than $112,000 and $161,000. All of a sudden, McCain starts to look better for you. You're going to save a little more than $2,500. Under Barack Obama, you save just a little more than $2,000.

When you get higher than that, if you're making more than $161,000 but less than $227,000, you get $4,500 off your federal income tax bill with John McCain. Only $2,800 under Barack Obama. So the lower your income is, the biggest tax cut you get under Barack Obama. The higher it is, it starts to look better for John McCain. BROWN: And Ali, give us a quick fact check on what Obama said. Is he really going to cut taxes for 95 percent of working Americans?

His words?

VELSHI: It's funny he used the word working Americans. This is a lot of semantics. The Tax Policy Center ran the numbers and they say 95 percent of Americans with children, families with children, will see a tax break under Barack Obama. Eighty-one percent of Americans in total will see that tax break. So Barack Obama keeps talking about working Americans. We know that families will see that discount in their taxes. The bottom line is most Americans will see a tax cut under both of these two candidates.

BROWN: All right. Ali Velshi for us tonight. Ali, thanks.

Coming up next, we have got some breaking news. Two huge earthquakes in Asia tonight, and closer to home, the latest forecast for Hurricane Ike pretty ominous. Stay with us.

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BROWN: A Hollywood tough guy is talking politics, and he's a special guest of Larry King's coming up in just as few minutes. Larry, who is it and what's he's saying?

LARRY KING, CNN HOST: He's talking about black belt patriotism. He's Chuck Norris, and he's going to be here to explain that. Plus, Sarah Palin and the polls. Is she up, is she down? Are her critics playing lipstick politics? We have a great panel all next on LARRY KING LIVE. Campbell?

BROWN: All right, Larry. We'll see you soon.

Some breaking news to tell you about. Two major earthquakes have just hit Asia. One in Japan, the other in Indonesia. Erica Hill will be here next with all of the details. Plus we're going to have the latest forecast for Hurricane Ike. Millions of people could be affected this weekend. Stay with us.

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BROWN: Big breaking news right now. Erica Hill is here with the briefing. Erica?

ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: Yeah, Campbell. We begin actually with two major hurricanes that have hit within minutes of each other. According to the U.S. Geological Survey a magnitude 6.6 earthquake hit Indonesia following by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Japan.

A little closer to home, we're going to follow that for you, but a little closer to home, we want to update you on Hurricane Ike, which is now threatening the Texas Gulf Coast. By the time the storm arrives there, it could be extremely dangerous Category 4 storm. We're talking 130 mile an hour sustained winds. There's already a mandatory evacuation in effect for some coastal communities between Houston and Corpus Christi. Chad Myers is standing by in the severe weather center. And Chad, is this thing still on course for Friday?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yeah, after dark Friday, probably, maybe even into Saturday morning. If it slows down, it could be after sunrise Saturday morning. That depends on if makes a turn to Houston or Corpus Christi or right in the middle where it's going low to Port Lavaca. That's basically the Aransis County area, that's the area you were talking about with the mandatory evacuations for tomorrow. It will be a Category 4 hurricane. That's why: 135 miles per hour, and it may go down before landfall, but still, there's going to be a storm surge of about 20 feet coming onshore there. Anybody in that area needs to get out.

Erica?

HILL: All right, Chad. You can continue to follow it was well and you can also follow Hurricane Ike's path through the Gulf on our Web site. We're also posting the latest updates. We're also following the story out of Japan and Indonesia where those two quakes hit, Campbell, so we'll get those updated as well.

CAMPBELL: All right. Erica Hill for us tonight as always, thanks, Erica.

Sarah Palin calls herself an anti-pork crusader, but does her record in Alaska tell a different story. Our Randi Kaye has been digging through the governor's earmark past.

She's got the real story for us tonight. No bias, no bull, this is the ELECTION CENTER.

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CAMPBELL: John McCain has been blasting pork laden earmarks and the lawmakers who love them. So you would think his running mate has a long record of opposing earmarks, wouldn't you? We did send Randi Kaye to Anchorage to take a look at Sarah Palin's record. Here's her story.

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RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Three little words, the clue as to where Sarah Palin once stood on earmarks scrawled in the margin of this memo to the Wasilla City Council back when Palin was mayor. "We did well."

It was June 14th, 1999. When Palin wrote "This does not include our nearly $1 million from the feds for our airport paving project." Then added those three words, "We did well."

LARRY PERSILY, WORKED FOR PALIN: She was hungry for funding for the federal government that could help her community.

KAYE: Long time journalist Larry Persily worked for the governor for several months, but doesn't believe she has judgment or qualifications to be vice president.

As to earmarks, he says ...

PERSILY: When she was mayor of Wasilla from 1996 to 2002, she was in there looking for federal earmarks from Congress just as much as anyone.

KAYE (on camera): As mayor Palin hired a lobbyist to help funnel federal dollars to her home town. And not just any lobbyist, but the former chief of staff for Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, who at the time was the chairman of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, which doles out federal cash.

(voice-over): The lobbyists helped her secure $600,000 for a new bus facility, $1.75 million for a dispatch center technology, $2.4 million to upgrade water and sewer facilities.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Wasilla did pretty well once they got into the earmark game.

KAYE: In the last four years Palin was mayor, the City of Wasilla with a population of just about 5,000, scored $27 million in earmarks says the nonpartisan Taxpayers for Common Sense. The McCain campaign defended her record saying small towns like Wasilla they depend on earmarks to meet basic needs. The state was doing pretty well, too thanks to the efforts of its congressional delegation.

Perhaps Alaska's most egregious earmark, the bridge to nowhere, the target of Senator John McCain.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Everybody will know their names, the sponsors and appropriators, the appropriators of the people supporting the bridge to an island in Alaska with 50 people on it.

KAYE: In 2006, Palin ran for governor, promising to support the now infamous Bridge to Nowhere.

PALIN: I'm not going to stand in the way of progress.

KAYE: But after being elected governor, she rejected it. McCain and watch dog groups were already targeting the Bridge to Nowhere then. Palin said the price tag had become too high and the money could be better used for different projects.

PALIN: I told the Congress thanks but no thanks on the Bridge to Nowhere.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She's telling only half the story as far as the earmarks.

KAYE: In fact, Palin was securing earmarks just as McCain was trying to slash them. Years ago, he even identified some of her projects. That was then. Since becoming governor, she has cut the earmarks the state asked for, but she hasn't turned her back on earmarks completely. This year, Alaska had more earmark requests than any other state.

Alaska's lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell, defends Palin's record.

GOV. SEAN PARNELL, (R) AK: She's a fiscal hawk. I'd say that she has worked to reduce the number of earmarks.

KAYE: The governor's office says Palin asked for $256 million in her first year in office, $197 million the second year. Why the apparent change of heart on the federal money?

PERSILY: She turned against earmarks when she saw the nation turning against earmarks and realized the ride was going to be over.

KAYE: Did the governor change her tone on earmarks because they became unpopular?

PARNELL: I don't think so. I think she saw them for what they were. As you're in often longer, you see the cumulative effect of the earmarks from Wasilla to Pensacola to across America, the thousands of earmarks. And you see the corruption that can come from those.

KAYE: For 2008 and 2009, her office has asked for nearly $8 million federal dollars to upgrade a remote airport after it was handed over by the Navy. The FAA says it handles only eight scheduled flights a month. Also, $4 million to research sea crab stocks.

Why is studying sea crabs and rock fish worth more than $5 million?

PARNELL: Because they're found in federal waters and state waters, and they impact federal commercial fishing interests, as well as state.

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KAYE: It's interesting that Alaska is studying sea crabs because McCain says he doesn't want to waste taxpayer dollars testing the DNA of bears in Montana.

Campbell?

BROWN: All right. Randi Kaye for us. Randi, thanks. That's it for us tonight, Larry King starts right now.