Return to Transcripts main page
American Morning
Candidates Take a Break to Trade Jokes and Jabs; Washington Post Endorses Obama; Global Markets Mixed; Obama on the Trail in Virginia; Race to the Finish: Pollster.Com Predicting a Blowout for Obama
Aired October 17, 2008 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Looking at the latest CNN electoral math. CNN now estimates that Barack Obama does have enough electoral votes for a theoretical win if the election were to be held today. The key swing State of Virginia has moved from toss up to leaning towards Obama. And that's 13 electoral votes bringing Obama's estimate to 277 compared to McCain's 174. There are still six states and 87 electoral votes in a toss up column and 18 more days until the election.
Well, the candidates will be back on the campaign trail today. But last night they took a break from trading attacks so they can actually trade some jokes at a charity dinner here in New York. Our Ed Henry joins me now.
You were there. And it almost seemed like a roast rather than, you know, that a big presidential campaign.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: You're right. You just did this interview about the book about staying positive.
CHETRY: Right.
HENRY: It's going pretty negative in the last couple of week so this campaign obviously, but last night they traded the jabs for jokes instead.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY (voice-over): One day after John McCain and Barack Obama squared off in the final debate they shared the stage again, but this time for laughs.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This campaign needed the common touch of a working man. After all, it began so long ago with a heralded arrival of a man known to Oprah Winfrey as "the one." Being a friend and colleague of Barack, I just called him, that one.
(LAUGHTER)
My friends, he doesn't mind at all. In fact, he even has a pet name for me. George Bush.
(LAUGHTER) ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Then it was Obama's turn to tweak McCain at the annual Al Smith Charity Dinner.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Recently one of John's top advisers told "The Daily News" that if we keep talking about the economy, McCain's going to lose. So tonight, I'd like to talk about the economy.
HENRY: The political roast has been a command performance for presidential candidates for decades.
MCCAIN: I screwed up.
HENRY: Earlier McCain used a little political humor to mend fences with talk show host David Letterman. Last month, he cancelled an appearance to deal with the financial crisis, and has gotten clobbered ever since.
MCCAIN: It's going to be kind of a sad feeling around here when the election finally takes place.
HENRY: With the race now moving to its final stage and Obama up in crucial state polls, he's urging supporters not to become complacent.
OBAMA: But for those who are getting a little cocky, I got two words for you. New Hampshire. I learned right here with the help of my great friend and supporter Hillary Clinton that you cannot let up.
HENRY: McCain, meanwhile, is still hoping to shake up the race.
MCCAIN: We're six points down. The national media, as they have several times before, has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY: Now later last night here in New York, Barack Obama was at a concert fundraiser and he told his supporters don't underestimate the ability of Democrats to basically blow this lead and that he was saying it was a joke and they were laughing. But you see his point.
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Where he said snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
HENRY: Jaws of victory, exactly. Because they've done it before and it can happen again.
CHETRY: It's also funny to hear John McCain sort of ribbing Barack Obama about the rivalry with the Clintons as well last night.
HENRY: Absolutely. At one point, he was talking about he's here in Manhattan, very liberal bastion. And he said, I wonder if there are any supporters out there. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I can't shake that feeling that some people here are pulling for me.
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
I'm delighted to see you here tonight, Hillary.
(LAUGHTER)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: Senator Clinton was laughing. And later, McCain also said, look, maverick I can do, but messiah is above my pay grade. And so, he was pretty funny last night.
CHETRY: And he also made the joke he got in trouble for -- he got ribbed for saying "that one"...
HENRY: Yes.
CHETRY: ... about Barack Obama at the debate and he said, well, everyone calls him "the one." He's not just making a play on words.
HENRY: Yes. A little bit of laughter, a little lighthearted here amid all these jabs and counterpunches.
CHETRY: Right. Well, they'll be back at it today for sure.
HENRY: Absolutely.
CHETRY: Ed Henry, thanks.
HENRY: Thanks.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, "The Washington Post" is endorsing Barack Obama in this morning's edition. The paper says Obama has the potential to become a great president even though it acknowledges he only has brief experience in national politics.
As for John McCain, "The Post" says he run a "disappointing campaign" and made an "irresponsible selection by picking Sarah Palin as his running mate."
Senator Obama gets back to work today with a campaign stop in Virginia battleground state and CNN just put in the leaning Obama column.
Our Suzanne Malveaux joins me this morning from Roanoke, Virginia. Does the Obama campaign really believe, Suzanne, that he can win Virginia? It's not gone for a Democrat since 1964.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: John, a lot of people talking about that and asking that question but it turns out that it really is quite competitive. So 13 electoral votes in Virginia. You see southwest the polls showing it's strongly going for McCain but you see northern Virginia, that is where Obama is performing rather strong. And you take a look at what he's actually been doing. This is the seventh time since the primary that he hit Virginia, but it's the first time since either candidate has gone to Roanoke. And that is significant.
Roanoke is very much a socially conservative area. It really shows a sense of confidence that Barack Obama has in making some inroads and the reasons why is because you just take a looking at the ground operation and all the resources really when it comes to the television ads, he's got three times as many offices as John McCain. So he's put so much into this state. They really believe that now would be the chance, now would be the time they could possibly turn this read state to blue.
ROBERTS: I take it, Suzanne, though, that McCain has not given up yet. I mean, if he hopes to be able to turn back the tide here, at least according to CNN's electoral map, he has to try to pull back Virginia.
MALVEAUX: You know, you're absolutely right. They haven't given up, but they certainly realize that they're playing defense. That this is essentially Republican territory, certainly once was, and they're just trying to hold on to those states that they believe they can hold on to.
This is really going to be a fight until the end, the final weeks here. We saw that McCain as well with his running mate they were here earlier in the week. On Monday, Sarah Palin got a lot of attention in Richmond, a lot of support there. John McCain in Virginia Beach, really trying to rally the faithful. And tomorrow, they're going to be back in Prince William County.
Obviously, this is something that's going to matter to them because it's all about the "get out the vote" effort. If they can get out as many people as possible, they believe they still have a chance to capture Virginia.
But, John, that really is a big unknown. When you take a look at the number of people who have registered in the thousands and thousands, new registered voters and a lot of people believe that that's coming from the Democratic side, a lot of volunteers from D.C. and Maryland who've been involved in that "get out the vote" effort on the Obama side, John.
ROBERTS: Suzanne Malveaux for us live this morning in Roanoke, Virginia. Suzanne, thanks so much.
It's six minutes now after the hour.
MALVEAUX: Thanks, John.
CHETRY: The youth vote.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I believe that young people will show up at the polls.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Why young voters could be the deciding factor this election year, and what John McCain and Barack Obama are doing to win them over.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They're the highest levels we've ever seen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: You're watching the "Most News in the Morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "THE LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN")
DAVID LETTERMAN, HOST, "THE LATE SHOW WITH DAVID LETTERMAN": What exactly happened?
(LAUGHTER)
(APPLAUSE)
See here. I thought I was doing my part to save the economy and then later I get to think, well, maybe I'm just not important enough.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Can I give you an answer?
LETTERMAN: Please.
MCCAIN: I screwed up.
(LAUGHTER)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: John McCain actually making his appearance on Letterman after cancelling abruptly three weeks ago. And boy, he was foddered for Letterman for practically -- every single night since then.
ROBERTS: Looks like they have kissed and made up since then.
CHETRY: Yes. All is well that ends well for Letterman and McCain.
Christine Romans joins us now. There should be more people saying I screwed up, right, as you're trying to figure out what the heck to do. You're looking at your 401(k).
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: You know, too many people screwed up. So many people screwed up, you don't even know where to lay the blame anymore, right? But we're watching this morning.
Uncle Warren has some advice about the stock market. Warren Buffet, one of the richest men in the world. Why do we care? Well, he was one of those guys who did not buy tech stocks because he didn't understand them. Thought maybe that it looks like a bubble and he was right. And he's also incredibly rich. So that's another reason why we pay attention to what he says.
In the "New York Times" he says buy American. I am. He wrote an op ed and he said, "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." And he says there's a lot of fear out there and he thinks there's some opportunities. He said the near term -- he can't say what's going to happen to stocks in the very near term. But he said long term, he's confident that the company profits, five, ten years out are going to be good and that, of course, what drives the stock market.
ROBERTS: But what's going to happen at the end of this year and the beginning of next year?
ROMANS: Well, it's going to be ugly in the economy and we know that. And the stock market is starting to price that in right now.
ROBERTS: But what about jobs and things? The only way that some of these companies are going to be able to prove to Wall Street that they're going to be (INAUDIBLE).
ROMANS: By cutting jobs.
ROBERTS: By cutting jobs.
ROMANS: By cutting jobs. And that's something that I have encountered (ph) people. Don't think that every person, every manager in America with headcount doesn't know the top 20 percent and the bottom 20 percent.
ROBERTS: Yes.
ROMANS: So that's something --
CHETRY: Last week you said top five.
ROMANS: I know. And now, I'm telling you --
No, it's 20. But --
ROBERTS: Let's hope it doesn't just extend to 50.
ROMANS: Yes, exactly.
All right. So, you know, stocks wild day yesterday. Get used to it. We're going to have some wild days on the stock market. You know, we're not going to watch --
CHETRY: Buffett says buy --buy American.
ROMANS: Buffett says buy -- buy American. But you know, Dow at 8,900, it was 14,000 not too long ago.
ROBERTS: Yes.
ROMANS: So we've had a really, really tough ride. And Asian markets and European markets are mixed overnight. So you know, we'll see how it goes again today.
ROBERTS: Great. Christine, thanks so much.
ROMANS: Sure.
CHETRY: Well, as more states move into solid Obama on the electoral map, how many states are still battleground now. We're going to go to the magic wall and show you which states are must wins for McCain.
And also, you knew it was coming. Last night, "Saturday Night Live" took on the debates, including naturally Joe the plumber.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE)
DARRELL HAMMOND, COMEDIAN, PLAYING JOHN MCCAIN: I will be the first to add a cabinet level Department of Plumbing.
(LAUGHTER)
And you know who I'm going to tap for that post?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Joe the plumber?
HAMMOND: Bingo. Joe the plumber.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Joe the almost plumber as we're finding out today. He wasn't licensed in Ohio.
Well, you laugh at it but does it affect your vote? You're watching the "Most News in the Morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Eighteen days to go now until the election. A lot of presidential travel. They're running across the country trying to solidify the vote.
This is where Barack Obama is today. He's in Roanoke City, Virginia. This went Democrat in the 2004 election. John Kerry beat George Bush, 50 to 46 percent. But let's shrink down the map and just kind of take a look at where he is here. Look at this.
It's a little tiny island of blue in a huge sea of red. George Bush and the Republicans have, you know, locked up that area of Virginia for a long, long time. Democrats win in the urban areas, but that area of Virginia solidly Republican. So Barack Obama trying to make some inroads into that area. Let's take a look at where John McCain is today. He's in the Sunshine State here in Florida. He's in Miami this morning. Of course, big Cuban vote in Miami. He's going to try to boost the turn out for Election Day in that area because this whole area, you know, Monroe, Dade, Broward, Palm Beach County, very, very heavily Democrat.
Later on in the day, he's going to be going up here to Melbourne in Brevard County which is still solidly Republican to try to boost the vote, try to boost the turnout there.
Sarah Palin, meanwhile, is going to be in Ohio, in Indiana, and as well she's going to Pennsylvania. She'll be in Lancaster County today. This in nearby Chester Counties in the far western suburbs of Philadelphia, solidly Republican. They're going to try to boost the turnout there.
Why do they need to do that? Let's take a look at the electoral map here because John McCain has got a long road to travel here to get to the Oval Office.
Currently projected, Barack Obama with 277 electoral votes to 174 for John McCain over that 270 line. So the problem for John McCain is, though, that if he were to win all of these traditionally red states where he's defending right now, you know, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, even Missouri, Colorado and Nevada, which all went Republican in 2004, he's still behind here. So the task for him is he's got to try to pull back some of these states that are leaning Barack Obama -- states like Pennsylvania. But some people feel that one is too far gone because Obama at many polls out by 12-plus points.
He's also playing up here in Maine which has a unique formula for allocating electoral votes -- two statewide, two by congressional districts. He might try to peel off one vote there. He's also got to try to go into Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico because if he were to pull back say, Virginia, that would take him over the line. If he were to pull back Wisconsin, that would take him over the line. If he were to pull back Minnesota, that would get him into the White House.
So John McCain has got an awful lot of work to do not only defending in the red states but also trying to reel Barack Obama back in some of those states that are now leaning Democratic. So, a long and tough road ahead in the next 18 days for John McCain.
CHETRY: All right. Well, John McCain's health care plan would give you a $5,000 tax break so you can go out and buy health insurance yourself if you want to. But how much insurance does $5,000 actually buy? And will you get taxed on it if you decide to keep your own? We're paging Dr. Gupta for answers.
It's 17 minutes after the hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: And welcome back to the "Most News in the Morning." Nineteen past the hour right now. Time to fast forward to see what stories will be making news later today.
President Bush speaking at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce at about an hour and a half. He'll talk about the impact of the financial rescue and recovery plan.
Also, Angelina Jolie taking up the cause for Darfur. The actress will make remarks at a panel of the Council of Foreign Relations here in New York City this afternoon.
And the worst of Omar is over. It's now weakened to a tropical storm. It's headed out to the Atlantic Ocean, far from the U.S. mainland after delivering a glancing blow to the Virgin Island. Omar passed by Puerto Rico without doing any serious damage.
Our Rob Marciano has been tracking this storm, and he has an eye on the weather for us this morning.
Hey, Rob.
ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Hi, Kiran. You know, a lot of the islands got pretty lucky with this storm and actually exploded into a Category 2 and then a Category 3 storm when this thing scooted just past the northern Leeward Islands. Now, it's really on the move northeast from Leeward at 25 miles an hour. Tropical storm strength at 60 so staying so.
Into the shipping channels it goes, it might even make its way all the way to Europe. A lot of times this time of the year, these storms can kind of take another shape and get into Europe and create a little bit of windstorm.
Cool winds across the northeast. Not too chilly, but certainly getting you in the mood for fall. High fire risk, at least a red flag warning posted today for Southern California. Again, high pressure in control across parts of the intermountain west for a blue bird (ph) skies there.
Temperatures will be in the 70s in Dallas, 70 degrees in Atlanta. Record high temperatures across much of the southeastern third yesterday. Starting to see things cool off just a little bit. Fifty- six degrees in Chicago. It will be 59 degrees in New York City.
And we are at the time of the year where we start to see foliage in full bloom, if you will, especially around the Colorado Rockies. That's where we're seeing it to be peaking out right now. The Aspens in full bloom and across the northeast and the -- despite the Appalachians, we're seeing hardwoods now begin to show their oranges and reds.
Love this time of year, Kiran. Temperatures in the 50s for you today. Enjoy your Friday.
CHETRY: Oh, it's my absolute favorite, I think. But that and a little bit of summertime, the beginning of summer.
But boy, it's gorgeous out there. I hope to get out there and get a chance to look at some of those leaves in New England. Just beautiful.
All right. Rob, thanks.
MARCIANO: See you, Kiran.
ROBERTS: Twenty-one minutes now after the hour. Eighteen days and everybody is watching the electoral map estimate. But there's one map with surprising new point spread. We'll tell you what it all means.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: The latest CNN electoral map now estimates that if the election were held today, Barack Obama would have more than enough electoral votes to win the White House. Obama has 277 and John McCain has 174; 270 is the magic number to occupy the Oval Office.
Some other election watchers, though, have Senator Obama running away with it at this point. Over at Pollster.com, Barack Obama has 313 electoral votes compared to John McCain's 155. It has Colorado and Florida out of the toss up category and leaning Obama.
Joining me now to talk more about this is Mark Blumenthal. He's the editor of publisher of Pollster.com.
Mark, I'm standing at the magic wall here so we could sort of follow along with your calculations. How did you come to the 313 electoral votes?
MARK BLUMENTHAL, EDITOR & PUBLISHER, POLLSTER.COM: What we do in Pollster.com which is a little bit different is that we look at all the polls but only polls. We're not looking at past results. We're not making subjective judgments about where we think things ought to be. We're taking all the polls, essentially matching them up, coming up with a trend estimate and using the formula based on our confidence in the lead, assigning each state either to McCain, Obama or in the toss up category.
ROBERTS: Well, let me just play along here on our electoral map. We have Florida and Colorado as toss up states. You put those both in the lean-Obama category.
BLUMENTHAL: Right.
ROBERTS: And that's the way you come up with the 313 electoral votes.
BLUMENTHAL: Right.
ROBERTS: But if I'm not wrong, I mean, even looking at your Web site, looking at other Web sites, aren't those states still within about five points? How do you put those in the lean category?
BLUMENTHAL: That's exactly right. If you look at -- Florida is a great example. If you look at the last CNN "Time" poll, I think you had a five-point lead for Obama.
Well, in the last -- since October 1st, there have been 11 surveys released in Florida. Ten of them have had Obama with a lead of at least a point. Our trend estimate is 5.5 which is about the same margin as the CNN poll. But because we are looking at so many surveys, we've got confidence that that margin is statistically meaningful.
ROBERTS: Right.
BLUMENTHAL: So we're calling it a lean.
ROBERTS: OK. I don't want to get too deep into these statistical weights here.
BLUMETHAL: Right. Right.
ROBERTS: I want people at home to be able to follow along. A couple of other interesting things that you got going on, though, is that we've got North Dakota in the lean-McCain category. It was solidly McCain, but you put that in the toss up category.
BLUMENTHAL: Right.
ROBERTS: You also have Indiana in the toss up category. Let's just change this in our map here and we have Virginia lean Obama, but you leave that in the toss up category. And you also add West Virginia in the toss up. So that would give one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, eight toss up states. And making that road, that already difficult road for John McCain even more difficult than it was before.
BLUMENTHAL: Well, some of the states, North Dakota is one that sort of gives us a little bit of heartburn. Where in Florida, there's something like 20 polls since September 20th. In North Dakota, there are two. Both out this week. Both showing essentially a dead lock contest and that's moved. Because we're not making a judgment call, we're going only on the polls we have. That makes North Dakota look pretty close.
ROBERTS: Yes. Now, McCain advisers insist that support for Barack Obama in these leaning states is soft. Do you agree with that assessment?
BLUMENTHAL: Well, I think it's soft enough. I think the key point here is we're not making a prediction about what polls are going to show next week or on November 3rd, the night before the election. We're trying to characterize what they're showing right now.
ROBERTS: Right.
BLUMENTHAL: What they're showing right now if the election were held right now we think Obama would win. But that could change next week.
ROBERTS: Let's also take a look. We looked at this just a second ago. It just changed to our election map here.
And travel for John McCain. You know, he's in south Florida today. He's in Miami. He's also going to Melbourne, Florida. Sarah Palin is in Ohio. She's going to be in Indiana. She's also going to Lancaster County, Pennsylvania.
Barack Obama is in Roanoke today. So far, we see John McCain, his travel plans. He's also going sort of North Carolina on Saturday. His travel plans take him to red states, so he's defending there. If he wants to try to make up that difference with Senator Obama, and again, you got Senator Obama with 313 electoral votes, does he not need to go into places like Maine and New Hampshire and Wisconsin and Minnesota and New Mexico, in places like that to try to pull back some of that advantage that Barack Obama has?
BLUMENTHAL: Well, he's unfortunately, I think for him he's got to do both. There's no scenario, there's no victory scenario for the McCain campaign that doesn't include Florida. So as long as they're behind, they are going to have to pull that back.
But I agree with you that states like Virginia and Colorado and New Hampshire that are really kind of on the bubble. If the flood recedes, if you will, those are the states that will decide the outcome of the election.
ROBERTS: You know, we talk about, you know, the 1982 election for governor in California, Tom Bradley was running, and we talk about the Bradley effect where he went into the polls leading and came out losing. Are you picking up any of that in your analysis of the polling, that perhaps Senator Obama is polling more strongly than he may actually make out on Election Day?
BLUMENTHAL: Right. I think that's exactly the right question that we should be asking, and there's a lot of discussion about the Bradley effect and debate about whether patterns that we did see 20 years ago might and we haven't seen, where polls were wrong in races featuring a black candidate and a white candidate. We haven't seen that pattern in the last 10 years, whether that's happening now.
And I think the key is to look at the evidence we have from the surveys we have now to see, to look real hard at the undecideds...
ROBERTS: Right.
BLUMENTHAL: ... and see if there's a hidden McCain vote there, to look at whether the race and the focal (ph) characteristic of the interviewer matters. Not seeing that evidence yet. I think that the jury is still out. We're going to keep looking at it closely.
ROBERTS: All right.
BLUMENTHAL: But as of yet, I don't see that.
ROBERTS: Everybody -- everybody is analyzing those polls and the electoral votes. Again, just to reiterate, Pollster.com has Barack Obama with 313 electoral votes to John McCain's 155.
The CNN predictions at this point, 277 for Barack Obama, 174 for John McCain. Mark Blumenthal from Pollster.com, it's good to talk to you this morning. Thanks for being on.
BLUMENTHAL: Good to be here. Thank you.
CHETRY: It's 7:30 this morning. Breaking news.
Worldwide markets moving higher this morning. Japan's Nikkei had a close to three percent. Markets across Europe also gaining. Dow future, though, pointing lower, at last check down 133.
There is some good news, though. Gas prices down another four cents, an average $3.04 a gallon, according to AAA this morning. That's down more than 81 cents in the past month.
Oil prices also fell below $70 a barrel yesterday. That's less than half the all-time high of $147 a barrel set back in July.
And the Boston Red Sox aren't dead yet. On the brink of elimination, trailing 7-0, the Red Sox rallied back to beat the Tampa Bay Rays 8-7. It was the second biggest come back in playoff history. But they still do have to win two more games in Tampa Bay both Saturday and Sunday to advance to the World Series.
You go by the primaries and the new voter registration across the country, and there's no doubt that the youth vote is amped. Some states expecting triple, even four times the number of voters under 30, compared to the 2000 election. Will that excitement last until November 4th? Battleground reporter John Zarrella is taking the pulse of students on campus in Florida.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Don't let this relaxed demeanor fool you. University of Florida students are not taking this presidential election lying down. They are keenly aware of the issues they will face as they exchange text books for check books.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Just overall, the budget and money and not handing us a giant problematic economy and a giant problematic budget and deficit system and saying good luck.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We see issues of international relations gone wrong. We see wars that shouldn't have been fought in the first place.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Barack Obama.
ZARRELLA: The students, democrats and republicans believe November 4th could be a watershed for youth turnout between the ages of 18 and 29. Nationally Rock the Vote registered a record 2.5 million young voters.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're seeing the rates in which young people are watching the news and paying attention. It's really skyrocketed to the highest levels we've ever seen. ZARRELLA: Why? There appears to be a rolling tsunami of sentiment that the stakes have never been higher.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think kids are moving in Florida from the beach to the ballot box. I think that they are really kind of understanding the significance of what is, what we're on the brink of here.
ZARRELLA: The night of the final debate young Democrats and Republicans gathered at the same watch party. Will this enthusiasm carry over to election day?
FLORENCE MOSS, PRES., MIAMI-DADE YOUNG REPUBLICANS: I believe that young people will show up to the polls and we will see the impact of those young, those new registered voters.
ZARRELLA: Yara Lorenzo, a volunteers at this Republican phone bank in Miami. She helped found a group of young professionals called Rising Republicans.
YARA LORENZO, RISING REPUBLICANS: Every election young people are coming out. This election is really different. I mean, just by looking at our candidates you can tell it's really different. And I think that young people will make that difference.
ZARRELLA: Both parties are hoping young voters who have been talking the talk will in record numbers walk the walk to the voting booth. Even though the majority of young voters appear to be favoring Barack Obama, the McCain campaign believes young Republicans knowing they are outnumbered are more committed to get out and vote. We shall see. John, Kiran.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN, ANCHOR: John Zarrella reporting for us this morning. John, thanks so much. Next week the best political team brings you a series called Count the Vote. We're going to take a look at some of the potential problems that could pop-up in states that could decide the election. Some from huge voter turnout, others because of the switch from paper to electronic balloting. And you can help avoid another Florida. If you got concerns about possible voting irregularities in your state, you spot something that's going on, that just doesn't quite seem right, give us a call as 1-877-gocnn-08. That's 877-GOCNN-08.
CHETRY: Well, the undecideds out there have 18 days to make up their minds. If they are in a battleground state that's struggling economically, the stakes are even higher. So what could swing the swing states. And you knew it was coming "Saturday Night Live's"' Thursday addition takes on the debate and of course, the most famous plumber in America.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AS JOHN MCCAIN: Just a few moments ago, my opponent slandered my very best friend in the world, Joe the plumber. (END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Or Joe the not so plumber.
It makes you laugh but does it affect your vote. The "SNL" factor. You're watching the most news in the morning.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Let me put it this way. I don't know, in the neighborhood I grew up or even the neighborhood I live in now which is really a nice neighborhood. I don't know many plumbers who are making $250,000 a year worried about it. We're kind of worried about you know, Joe the fireman, Joe the policeman, Joe the real plumber with a real license.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: And that's Joe, the vice presidential candidate talking about Joe the plumber on "Leno" last night. 18 days away now, the latest CNN poll of polls showing Barack Obama is holding on to his six-point lead over John McCain. 49 to 43 percent with eight percent of voters still unsure. That number is holding pretty steady there. The financial dominoes have been falling for several years now. Few know that better than working class voters in the key swing state of Ohio. Our personal finance editor Gerri Willis is taking a look now at what undecided voters there are looking for. What did you find out?
GERRI WILLIS, CNN PERSONAL FINANCE EDITOR: Well, the CNN poll show over and over again the economy is issue number one for people all over the country. And of course, that's no more important than in the state of Ohio. We talked to one woman there who is trying to decide which candidate is best for her family.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WILLIS (voice-over): Angie Jordan is one of the 760,000 Americans who have lost their jobs this year.
ANGIE JORDAN, UNDECIDED OHIO VOTERS: I'm a single mom of three. And I was laid off going on two weeks ago. I'm currently searching for work and I'm just hearing that there's a lot of qualified applicants out there looking for jobs.
WILLIS: Jordan is struggling to pay her bills and feed her children, to save money she moved with her mother a few months ago.
FAY HESS, UNDECIDED OHIO VOTER: Everybody is affected. The stores are affected. They are not just people can't afford to buy groceries and things they need, but the stores aren't hiring people.
WILLIS: Think this family's troubles won't affect you? Think again. They live in swing state Ohio and they haven't decided yet who they will vote for president.
HESS: I've change my mind 50 times so far. Every time I think I know who I'm going to vote for I hear something else.
WILLIS: For Ohio voters this could be a pivotal election.
CHARLES WISE, DIR., JOHN GLENN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS: If the economy is the upper most in certain undecided voters' mind, that will probably break more towards the democrats.
WILLIS: The states unemployment rate hit 7.4 percent in August, the highest since 1992. And far worse than the national unemployment rate of 6.1 percent. Jordan says if she were voting solely on the economy she would probably vote for Obama. But she's not sure.
JORDAN: Obama comes from a single mother. I feel like I can relate to him a lot better. I'm undecided because I don't think he has the experience that we need.
WILLIS: Jordan says she wants to know what the candidates are really going to do for working class people like her.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WILLIS: Well, one bright side for Ohio's economy is the health care industry. The state is a actually getting jobs there. Our single mom, Angie Jordan, she is worried about paying for medicines, doctor visits for her kids. She also works in health care and wants the industry to continue its grow. And her vote, of course, could sway the election.
ROBERTS: I imagine that across the country there's so much worry about the economy. And all indications are that things are going to get worse at least for the next six months or so.
WILLIS: Yes. We got some rough (sledding) to go, John.
ROBERTS: Gerri Willis, thanks so much for that.
WILLIS: My pleasure.
ROBERTS: Kiran.
CHETRY: Well, you heard of John McCain's health care plan and how he would give you a $5,000 credit to buy your own insurance. But will you get taxed on it if you keep your own insurance? We're Paging Dr. Gupta to find what's included and what's not in a $5,000 insurance plan. You're watching "the most news in the morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The average cost of a health care insurance plan in America today is $5,800. I'm going to give them $5,000 to take with them wherever they want to go. SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: By the way, the average policy costs about $12,000. So if you got $5,000 and it's going to cost you $12,000 that's a loss for you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: The candidates went at it over John McCain's health care plan in the final presidential debate. So how far will five grand really get you. We're "Paging Dr. Gupta," CNN's chief medical correspondent. Dr. Sanjay Gupta is in Atlanta this morning. He joins us. OK. So, Sanjay, John McCain says that $5800 will buy a family insurance plan. What did you guys find out?
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: He's just about right if you look at the overall data across the country in terms of cost of insurance. There's an organization called America's Health Insurance Plan. It's the largest organization, largest provider of health insurance. They did a study looking at this exact issue trying to figure out the average cost of health insurance.
What they found was on average for a family, it was about $5799. $5800. What McCain said but there are some important caveats here as they pointed out in the study. First it depends greatly on where you live. So, for example, the average might be around $5800 but there's certain states that are going to be more expensive. Massachusetts for example up to $16,000 or so. Wisconsin $3,000. So there's a great deal of variability. Now Senator McCain did point out that as part of his health care plan, you could buy insurance wherever in the country. So even if you lived in Massachusetts, you could buy Wisconsin plan or you could buy another state's plan. That was his, part of his overall health care plan.
One of the other important caveats and it's something that we've talked about a lot is that it depends on the individual in terms of pre-existing conditions. These health care costs can vary widely if you've had some sort of illness before. I just want to point out quickly because Senator Obama in that comment that you just played, Kiran, said the average cost was around $12,000. Where he seems to be getting those numbers is from a study done out of Kaiser looking at employer based coverage.
When an employer covers people they pool a lot of people together, people who are otherwise healthy and people with pre-existing conditions and that does tend to drive up cost. And the overall average cost with employer base coverage is around $12,000. So they are both right but the numbers can vary widely, depending on how you look at it, Kiran.
CHETRY: That's why it's so difficult to try to figure out what works for you as the individual as you're trying to make these types of decisions. Could you clear this up? If you're already getting your health insurance through your employer, do you still get a $5,000 tax credit?
GUPTA: Yes. And we asked that specific question as well. You still do get the tax credit. And there are several ways in which it can be used. Here's something you may not know. If you're getting an employer benefit of health care, you're still paying tax on that. So let's say you're getting $12,000 worth of benefit. You're still going to pay a certain amount of tax on that. Say it's $3,000 of tax. This $5,000 tax credit could be used towards that. So that's one way it could be used.
Also if you do decide to go out of a network to a doctor that's not within your network there are often additional costs. The costs there, again. this money can be applied toward that or co-pays for example, for prescription drugs or for doctor visits. This could be applied toward that as well. So there are ways that you can use the $5,000 tax credit even if you already have employer-based coverage.
CHETRY: I got you. All right, Sanjay Gupta, looking into it for us this morning. Very helpful. Thank you.
GUPTA: Thank you.
ROBERTS: 46 minutes after the hour. He passed on the big bailout. He thinks it's wrong for America and he wants you to know why. The campaign for liberty drops in on "the most news in the morning." Ron Paul live coming up. And another Thursday edition of "Saturday Night Live." And you knew it had to feature the debates and America's most famous plumber.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AS JOHN MCCAIN: I will be the first to add a cabinet level department of plumbing. And you know who I'm going to tap for that post?
AS BOB SCHIEFFER: Joe the plumber?
AS JOH MCCAIN: Bingo. Joe the plumber.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: It gets a lot of laughs but will it sway your vote? We are behind the scenes at "Saturday Night Live." You are watching "the most news in the morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: Hey, can I tell you a joke? Are we not doing the talent portion?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: And they're at it again. Another Thursday version of "Saturday Night Live." Our Alina Cho was behind-the-scenes and certainly you knew that Joe the plumber was going to have a big role in the Thursday edition of "Saturday Night Live."
ALINA CHO, CNN, CORRESPONDENT: That's right, John. Good morning. Good morning, everybody. Three little words, in this case, Joe the plumber can make a big difference if you're at "SNL." And the writers, well they took full advantage last night but "SNL" is more than just a barrel of laughs. The show, some believe, has real influence and could even impact the election.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHO (voice-over): On Wednesday this from the real candidate.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now, my old buddy Joe.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: To Joe the plumber.
MCCAIN: Joe the plumber is out there.
CHO: On Thursday.
DARRELL HAMMOND AS JOHN McCain, "SNL": Joe the plumber is a straight shooter and one of the finest people I've ever known.
CHO: Darrell Hammond is John McCain on what Joe the plumber means to him.
HAMMOND: He's got a lot of good ideas on how to fix this economy and as president I'll be relying on his advice on how to fix the economy, and as president, I'll be relying on his advice and expertise.
ANNOUNCER: It's "Saturday Night Live."
CHO: It's "Saturday Night Live" at its best.
AS BARACK OBAMA: First of all, look, I don't recall meeting the individual you're referring to.
HAMMOND: As president, I would go after these bloated budgets with a giant hatchet and then use a scalpel. Or I might take the advice of my friend Joe the plumber and use the plunger.
CHO: What distinguishes "SNL" from other comedy shows are the dead-on impersonations of the candidates.
So they're coming to you, and they want to talk about the issues.
HAMMOND: Like I'm a conduit to Capitol Hill?
CHO: How does that strike you? It's bizarre.
HAMMOND: It's absolutely bizarre.
CHO: Even more bizarre, when actor and candidate actually look alike, like Tina Fey and Sarah Palin. Ratings gold.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: Katie, I'd like to use one of my life lines.
CHO: "SNL's" viewership is up 50 percent this season, and millions more watch on the internet. A large mega phone, an attentive audience, equals impact. PROF. JERALD PODAIR, LAWRENCE UNIVERSITY: They influence the politics of this country as much as any of the pundits on TV and perhaps even more.
CHO: More than the pundits?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is a phenomenon we all hoped would not become an Obama-non.
CHO: To a certain degree, you do influence the way people feel about candidates.
SETH MEYERS, HEAD WRITER, "SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE": I think when people actually get into a voting booth, there are a hundred things on their list before what they saw on "Saturday Night Live."
CHO: Perhaps, but in this election year when anything can happen, everything matters. And "Saturday Night Live" brilliantly blurs the lines between parity and reality.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: And for those Joe six packs out there playing a drinking game at home, maverick.
CHO: Or get mavericky, as Tina Fey says. You know, "SNL" has been doing it for more than 30 years. And if for one second you think the show doesn't have an impact on politics, consider this. Back in 1976 Chevy Chase famously played Gerald Ford. The character was likable but also a bumbling buffoon and a klutz. The truth was the real Gerald Ford was considered a graceful man and a star athlete. But the parody struck and some think it cost him the presidency.
Now as for how the Tina Fey impersonation of Sarah Palin will affect the current race for president, we'll have to wait and see. One thing we can tell you, John. is that CNN has confirmed that Sarah Palin will be on "SNL" this Saturday night.
ROBERTS: And I would suspect that Tina Fey will be there as well and -
CHO: I'm guessing that.
ROBERTS: I'm - the two of them are already blending for me.
CHO: A lot of people get confused. Yes, in fact, coming on Monday, we're going to do a story on something we are calling the Fey effect. I mean, you know, the old saying is there's no such thing as bad publicity as long as they spell your name right?
ROBERTS: Yes.
CHO: Well, not so fast. More on that on Monday.
ROBERTS: It would be interesting to see them side by side, isn't?
CHO: I'm told there was a security sweep yesterday, and I've even been told about some of the sketches. All I can tell you is you have to watch.
ROBERTS: She is a doppelganger for her. It's incredible.
CHO: A dead ringer.
ROBERTS: All right. Alina, thanks so much.
53 minutes after the hour.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): Just 18 days.
MCCAIN: Let me give you the state of the race today.
ROBERTS: State by state.
OBAMA: I've got two words for you - New Hampshire.
ROBERTS: The changing electoral map. What it shows today.
Plus the big bailout. Why Ron Paul didn't vote for it. And with the economy a mess, why you should care. He's here to explain.
You're watching the most news in the morning.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Welcome back to the most politics in the morning. We're just 18 days away now from election day. CNN's latest poll of polls shows Senator John McCain trailing Senator Barack Obama by six points nationally. And this morning "The Washington Post" came out with its endorsement saying they are going with Barack Obama for president. I'm now joined by Larry Elder. He's a self-proclaimed republican. He's a McCain supporter and the host of the "Larry Elder Show" in Los Angeles. Good to see you this morning.
LARRY ELDER, MCCAIN SUPPORTER: Good morning. Thank you for having me.
CHETRY: So when we look at the race closing - getting into its closing days and we look at some of the things that have happened, we're seeing a shift certainly in the electoral map, if you will, places that were once considered red states like Virginia going toward Barack Obama. Is the race over, or is that premature?
ELDER: Well, you never know. I mean, just last night the Boston Red Sox came back from a 7-0 deficit to beat Tampa. But you're right. I mean, the mass looks daunting. This is a tough year to be a republican. The war is very unpopular. The economy is troubled. George W. Bush remains very, very unpopular. But remember it was just a few weeks ago that John McCain had maybe a two-point lead in national polls until the financial meltdown took place. So you never know, but it does look daunting. CHETRY: Yes. We were also looking back in history just to see if we'd ever seen anything change this late in the game when the polling is the way it is, and we didn't seem to see anything. But as you said, you're right. It's not over. McCain campaigned in Virginia and North Carolina this week. Sarah Palin in Indiana. And there have been some who have been scratching their heads about that, political analysts, people that follow the campaign trail, saying why are they wasting time in these states? They need to try to go to other states, places where they're polling ten points behind Barack Obama. It doesn't seem to make sense right now. What would your campaign advice be for John McCain?
ELDER: Well, John McCain, of course, has got to start with winning every state that George W. Bush lost - won last time and not lose anything. That's why he's trying to defend states that traditionally go red. But you know, the advice I would have given John McCain a long time ago is to try to personalize his issues. Barack Obama wants to raise taxes on the so-called rich, those making over $250,000. This will have a real world consequence, not just to the rich, but people who were employed by the rich. I thought it was wonderful that John McCain finally did that in the last debate when he came up with Joe the plumber.
CHETRY: Wait but did that - do you think that Joe the plumber situation was wonderful? It seems like it's backfiring a little bit because they found out, a, he wasn't a plumber, at least according to the local paper, the "Toledo Blade," and, b, that he was making about 40 grand, so he wouldn't really fall into that category anyway. So it almost seems like the poster child that ended up being the wrong one.
ELDER: I agree with that. That's one of the things that's so wonderful about him. He doesn't make $250,000. He aspires to. He understands, when you tax his bosses, you will affect everybody. They will hire fewer people. They will charge more for their goods and services. They'll be able to invest less in the business. And Joe understood that. That's when this whole class war fare, difference in ideology is between Democrats and Republicans. Republicans understand, that if you tax uptown, you're going to affect downtown. And Joe gets that. As to whether or not he's licensed, so what? My understanding is that in Ohio if you work for a licensed person, you don't have to have a license yourself.
In Toledo, I guess it's somewhat different. So what? This to me is an effort to trash this guy. He has common sense. He believes in the war in Iraq. He doesn't apologize for it. He says it's kept us safer. Understands that, when you transfer money out of one pocket and put it in the other pocket, you affect both ends of the transaction. This is the kind of guy that I think is a John McCain voter, and I think John McCain was smart to use him and personalize it.
CHETRY: All right. Well, I want to ask you about this idea of voting booth conversion before we let you go as well. Where voters tell the pollsters one thing, and they go in there and maybe they do something else. Do you think that race is going to be an issue for Barack Obama on November 4th? ELDER: It will. And it's going to be an issue in his advantage. A Gallup poll shows about six percent or seven percent of white voters felt that race was important, and about that many felt that it was important in the sense that I'm going to vote for Barack Obama more so because he's black. A race with more of a factor among nonvoters, about 15 percent of them felt that race was a factor, and they're going to vote for Barack Obama. Yes, it's a factor, except it cuts in his favor. As far as the so-called Bradley effect is concerned, maybe it was relevant about 20 years ago or so, but when you look at the polls during the primary season and they predicted Barack Obama would get a certain amount of the white vote. He did and (Herald Ford), a black guy who ran for Senate, a few years ago from Tennessee, they understated how much of the white support that he got. So to the extent that the Bradley effect was a factor 20 years ago, it isn't anymore.
CHETRY: All right. Very interesting. Larry Elder, thanks so much for being with us this morning. Great to have you.
ELDER: My pleasure, thank you.
