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This Week in Politics
Recounting the Week's Political Stories; Live Obama, McCain Speeches
Aired October 26, 2008 - 14:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GOV. SARAH PALIN (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Jobs.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Jobs.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Jobs.
TOM FOREMAN, CNN ANCHOR (voice over): Both campaigns are making promises about the safety of your job. Can they deliver or is it a campaign scam?
Is America turning socialist? If the facts are out there, we'll find them.
And can you trust those pollsters, or are they pulling the wool over your eyes?
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FOREMAN: Yes, it is a special "Truth Squad" edition of this week in politics after a look at what's in the news right now.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I'm Ed Henry in Zanesville, Ohio where John McCain will be holding a rally in just a few hours. But as you can see this hour there are a couple of live events that we'll be showing you.
John McCain is actually in Iowa right now. Barack Obama in Colorado. A couple of key battle ground states. Both stumping, kicking off this final full week of this dramatic 2008 presidential campaign by going back to those key states.
We're in Ohio right now, as I mentioned, because no Republican has ever won the White House without first carrying the buckeye state.
Right now, CNN's latest Poll of Polls shows that Barack Obama is leading here in Ohio by five points. Some good news for John McCain, just that it's still tight. There are other battlegrounds where he's fallen behind by double digits.
But the bad news for McCain, of course, is the fact that he would much rather have a Republican-leaning state like this -- one that George W. Bush carried in 2004 -- already in the bag so he could move on and start going after some Democratic states like Pennsylvania a little bit more. McCain will be going to Pennsylvania later this week hoping to get those electoral votes. But what we're seeing, broadly speaking, is Barack Obama playing much more on John McCain's turf like you see that live event today in Colorado. Just in a few moments we'll be going to Barack Obama. We also will be going to John McCain in Iowa.
We'll get to hear direct from them, unfiltered in their own words as you make your final decision about this campaign. But first, right now, let's go to a special "Truth Squad" edition of THIS WEEK IN POLITICS.
FOREMAN: Gary U.S. Bond singing about being out of work and that could be in the cards for a lot of Americans in the next six months to a year. There's probably no bigger issue in this election than whether or not you can keep your job or feel secure in it.
But don't worry the candidates have got your back. Barack Obama promises 5 million jobs in green manufacturing. John McCain says he'll create millions of new jobs with tax cuts, flexible health care and a new energy policy.
So you can tell your boss to get lost and hit the bricks if you want. What do you think about that, Ali Velshi? Good idea or is that just a bunch of trail dust?
ALI VELSHI, CNN SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Keep that on ice for a little while. The bottom line is, when you do have an economy like we're in now, the -- recovery from this economy can actually be fun.
You can make a lot of money in the stock market. You can make a good deal on houses and, in fact, there are generally lots of jobs to be had. We are anywhere from several months to a year away from that. Some say even further.
So be nice to your boss right now. Say hi to the boss every single morning. There will be an opportunity under both these presidential candidates to seek job creation. It has got less to do with their plans and more to do with business cycles in the way the economy goes.
FOREMAN: And of course, that's CNN senior business correspondent, Ali Velshi, who's up in New York. And also in New York "Businessweek's" senior writer Diane Brady.
Diane, give me the overview here. Both of these gentlemen are saying that they will be better for jobs in America. Your job will be more secure. There will be more jobs.
When you look at their overall platforms, what is the truth? Does either one of them have an advantage over the other or are both of them promising things they cannot deliver?
DIANE BRADY, BUSINESSWEEK: Well, the truth is tax cuts are going to be hard for either president, whoever gets in, to implement. I don't think we're going to be seeing a lot of that.
Creating jobs is, obviously, about the economy, as Ali said, and I think ultimately they have very little control over that unless they plan to hire all of us in their administration.
VELSHI: Right.
FOREMAN: Ali, one of the things I've read is that many people say tax cuts and job growth just don't go together. You can't have both. Is that a fair statement or is that not true?
VELSHI: Well -- you know, there's some -- there's fuzzy area there. What John McCain is saying it's a typical Republican refrain, is that if you lower corporate taxes on businesses, the money that they save from those businesses can be used to expand and by expanding that generally means building something and hiring people to work there. And then those people pay taxes and buy other things and that's good for the economy.
The Democrat position is really a little more related to legislation that will encourage the growth of business, in particular with Barack Obama, and a green economy which will then subsequently hire people.
The issue is we talk about creating jobs. The only people who create jobs are businesses and business owners. In fact, in this country small businesses are the biggest creator of jobs in this country -- the growth of new jobs.
So we need to look at things that are going to help them out. Right now they've had a very, very tough time with getting credit and with the fact that people are having a tough time spending so they're not spending in small businesses.
So we have to figure out, it's not -- it's not as clear as tax cuts and job growth.
FOREMAN: Ali, you mentioned the green job growth from Obama. Let's listen to what he's had to say about that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: As president I'm going to invest $15 billion a year in renewable sources of energy. We're going to create 5 million new green jobs over the next decade.
Jobs that can't -- jobs that pay well and can't be outsourced. Jobs building solar panels and wind turbines and the fuel efficient cars of tomorrow. Jobs that will help us end our dependence on foreign oil.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOREMAN: Diane, 5 million jobs that pay well and can't be outsourced. Is that true or false?
BRADY: Well, certainly manufacturing in the U.S., the growth opportunities are in high-skilled jobs. One of the big issues for the U.S., frankly, is education and whether we have 5 million people to fill those jobs because they're very highly technical jobs.
So I think that's certainly an issue. But certainly the low-skilled jobs, they're going to stay overseas. If you're going to do any growth it will be areas like green, nanotech. That's where we're going to see it.
FOREMAN: But do you buy these numbers when he talks about creating 5 million of these and that they will be these -- these good jobs, or do you think that he's being overly optimistic?
BRADY: I think that green energy is definitely going to be a growth area for the U.S. probably not on those numbers at that level, and one of the big factors that will drive it will be consumption.
Will people buy green cars? Will we be seeing businesses investing in wind energy? So, you know, it's not a case if you build it they will come. It's a case they want it and that will spur the industry.
FOREMAN: We're talking a moment ago about the idea of overseas jobs. John McCain made the case and has been making the case that you need to give some tax incentives for companies to keep jobs here, in effect, to not penalize them if they have offshore operations but nonetheless get them to try to come back here. That's his idea basically.
The Obama people say he's rewarding companies for shipping jobs overseas.
Ali, is there a real relationship between the taxation of companies and their overseas operations and whether or not they ship jobs out?
VELSHI: There are relationships between how you tax a company and where are they -- they do their operations. But it's not just tax. It's generally the cost of doing business. There are some things where it is just simply more effective to do it in other countries.
Generally speaking, Obama's economic policies have been a little more sound along this last part of the campaign, but in this particular area John McCain may have the edge. It is simply uncompetitive to penalize companies for -- you know, for putting parts of their operations in places where it may be more effective to do so.
The Obama campaign has, again, taken a typically Democratic line against some of the elements of free trade which are probably good for an economy so, no, it's -- it's not a bad idea to encourage companies to keep jobs here and to give them tax advantages to do so, but that wouldn't necessarily keep a lot of the jobs that have been outsourced.
Manufacturing is a perfect example. It's just too expensive to manufacture good in the United States when you have cheaper labor in other parts of the world. I'm not sure what kind of tax incentive you'd have to give to make companies say, you know what, we'll keep the factories here in the rust belt making things and we won't make them in China.
FOREMAN: I want you to listen to what John McCain said about these overseas jobs and then, Diane, I want to you jump on this as well. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: They're paying 35 percent, full freight, no evasions or escapes from the taxes to somehow allege that a company or corporation that can be international is not going to go where they pay the lowest taxes and can create the most jobs is just foolishness.
The last time we practiced this kind of isolationism and protectionism Senator Obama espouses and higher taxes was a guy named Herbert Hoover.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FOREMAN: Diane, he's talking about the corporate tax. He always says it's one of the highest in the world. We've checked that out. It is one of the highest in the world. But I know there are critics who also say that's also not the whole equation, this 35 percent is not the sources of...
BRADY: It's not. You know there are a lot of tax breaks and certainly at the state level you see a lot of incentives for business to set up. That's why we've seen the auto industry grow in the south to a large extent.
I think the real thing is when you scratch the surface of both these candidates, they're internationalists. They're fighting it out in swing states where a lot of manufacturing jobs have been lost in many cases but ultimately they are both people who recognize this is a global economy.
I don't think we'll see a great deal of difference with either candidate on that front and the world is what it is. You cannot stop companies from outsourcing jobs if it's a more lucrative environment abroad.
VELSHI: But Diane's point is valid. Right now during a campaign they have got views and visions that seem to be differentiated from each other, but our government has never -- has for a long time not been in control of where our jobs are.
I don't think that's going to change. We're not looking for more government involvement of where the jobs are. The tax code may influence that. The bottom line is they both understand exactly how business is going to get done in the United States and around the world.
FOREMAN: Ali, a quick bottom line assessments here, will there be more jobs under McCain, more under Obama, or probably about the same?
VELSHI: Hard to tell. When you're in a -- when you're in a downturn like this you're going to lose jobs. We're going to hope that we don't continue to lose more than we've already lost this year but we probably will, will probably lose at least a million jobs in 2008.
So, again, the -- upswing of the economy will probably be more responsible for the creation of new jobs than immediate government policy. FOREMAN: And same to you -- and same to you, Diane. Either advantage with either person or about the same, do you think?
BRADY: I think whoever inspires the most confidence will have the most success because what's preventing business right now is fear and I think if somebody can come in and assuage that fear, that's going to do a lot for this environment.
FOREMAN: Very good. I fear we are out of time.
Diane, Ali, thanks for being here.
In just a moment, more on our "Truth Squad" edition of THIS WEEK IN POLITICS. Are Democrats really socialists? Are people trying to block your ballot? And why are all these polls we talk about about as reliable as your local bookie? Maybe less.
And, of course, our late-night laughs where the truth is always plain to see.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Obama is so far ahead now it seems the only way he can lose is if his supporters screw it up but, aha, Obama supporters have a secret weakness. They are Democrats.
(LAUGHTER)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They are perfectly capable of screwing this up.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANNOUNCER: "Campaign Traildust" brought to you by...
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HENRY: I'm Ed Henry again in Zanesville, Ohio where John McCain will be holding a rally here in this critical battleground state. You can watch that live later today when Candy Crowley and I co-anchor "BALLOT BOWL" from 4:00 to 6:00 Eastern.
Right now, though, you can see these two live events going on at this moment. In fact, John McCain is in Iowa before heading over here to Ohio and Barack Obama has just started speaking in the battleground state of Colorado.
He's in Denver which was the site, of course, of the Democratic National Convention, the place where he'd accepted formally the Democratic nomination this summer.
Barack Obama has been talking a lot about the economy in recent days as we see him still leading in a lot of the national polls, also leading in critical battlegrounds. In fact, here in Ohio Obama is up by five points in the latest CNN Poll of Polls.
He is also hitting that theme of the economy once again in Colorado. He's been talking a lot specifically about President Bush's handling of the economy and John McCain's ties to President Bush.
Let's listen in to Barack Obama.
OBAMA: The millionaires and billionaires and hope that it trickles down on everybody else. It's the philosophy that gives tax breaks to wealthy CEOs and the corporations that ship jobs overseas while hundreds of thousands of jobs are disappearing here at home.
It's the philosophy that justifies spending $10 billion a month in Iraq while the Iraqi government sits on a huge surplus and our economy is in crisis.
For eight years we've seen the Bush/McCain philosophy put our country on the wrong track. We can't have another four years that look just like the last eight. It is time for change in Washington and that's why I'm running for president of the United States of America and that's why you're here today.
We know that the economic crisis that hit Wall Street has been hurting middle class families on main street for years. But during the primaries Senator McCain will say that we've made great progress economically under George Bush. Just last month he was still arguing that the fundamentals of our economy are strong.
We know that we have to get spending under control in Washington so that we're not mortgaging our children's future under a mountain of debt. But for all of Senator McCain's tough talk on spending he voted for four out of the five Bush budgets that let things get totally out of control.
That's not change.
We know that it's time for new ideas and new leadership in the White House. But Senator McCain voted with President Bush 90 percent of the time over the last eight years. Just the other day George Bush returned the favor and voted early for John McCain.
Well, Colorado, George Bush isn't the only one who gets to vote early. You can vote early, too, and you can finally put an end to the Bush/McCain philosophy. You can vote for a new direction for our country. You can vote for change. That's what this election is about.
Now we know, we know what's coming from the McCain campaign over the next eight -- next nine days. The same kind of politics that we've seen over the last eight years. It's a politics that's more about tearing your opponent down than lifting the country up.
Well, listen, I can take nine more days of John McCain's attacks, but the American people can't take four more years of the same failed policies, the same failed politics. We're not going to let George Bush pass the torch to John McCain. And that's why I'm running for president of the United States and that's why you're here today.
I know these are difficult time times. I know these are difficult times and I know many of you are worried. But I am absolutely confident we can steer ourselves out of this crisis because I believe in this country and I believe in you, I believe in the American people.
We are the United States of America. We're a nation that's faced down war and depression, great challenges and grave threats. And in each and every moment we've always risen to meet the challenge.
Not as Democrats, not as Republicans, but as Americans with resolve and with confidence and with that fundamentally belief that here in America our destiny is not written for us, it is written by us. We choose our own destiny. That's who we are. That's the country we need to be right now.
But, Colorado, it will take a new direction. It will take new leadership in Washington. We're going to have to turn the page on eight years of economic policies that put Wall Street before Main Street and ended up hurting both.
That's the irony, by the way, of this argument I'm having with John McCain. Rich people do better when ordinary folks are doing well. Part of the problem with what's happened on Wall Street is that ordinary folks were having trouble paying the bills.
They were starting to lose their homes. They were starting to be foreclosed on and that had an impact on everybody. We need policies that grow our economy from the bottom up so that every American everywhere has the chance to get ahead not just the person who owns the factory but the men and women who work on its floor.
You know who understood this? Henry Ford, the great innovator who helped create the auto industry. He was asked one time why is it you pay such good wages to your workers? He said, well, if I pay them good wages, they'll be able to buy my cars.
You see, if we've learned anything from this economic crisis it's that we're all connected. We're all in this together. We'll rise or fall as one nation, as one people. The financial rescue plan that passed Congress was a necessary first step. We had to ease the credit crisis. We had to make sure banks did not collapse.
That was done to protect not just the banks but to protect all of you, your 401(k)s, to protect people's jobs so that businesses could still make payroll, but if we're going to build this economy from the bottom up, then we need an immediate rescue plan for the middle class.
That's what I want to do as president of the United States of America.
When we -- when we lift our votes, the tide will rise. I have proposed a new American jobs tax credit for each new employee, that companies hire here in the United States over the next two years. Let's stop giving tax breaks to companies who ship jobs overseas. We're going to invest in companies that create good jobs right here in Colorado, right here in Denver.
We'll help create small -- we'll help get small businesses back on track by giving capital-gains taxes, giving them emergency loans to keep their doors open, and hire workers. We can create a job in growth fund to help states and local governments save millions of jobs and pay for health care and education without having to raise your taxes.
It'll also -- we'll also act quickly to help people stay in their homes. We've got to help responsible homeowner refinance their mortgages on affordable terms, to get the banks to renegotiate so that people aren't foreclosed on but they're making their payments on a regular basis.
And you don't see entire communities devastated. And we should put in place a three-month moratorium on foreclosures to give folks the breathing room they need to get back on their feet while these renegotiations are taking place.
HENRY: Now there -- there you have it, Barack Obama starting to make his final case to voters in the battleground state of Colorado. You heard him hitting John McCain a lot by trying to tie him to President Bush's economic policies specifically.
John McCain has been on the stump all this past week and now going into the final full week insisting, insisting that he is not a clone of President Bush and, in fact, John McCain has just started speaking.
He's in Cedar Falls, Iowa. Let's go right to Senator McCain.
MCCAIN: The jobless claims have increased by 15,000. And Senator Obama's tax increases would put even more people out of work. We've seen this before in other countries and it doesn't work. The answer to a slowing economy is not higher taxes but that's exactly what's going to happen if the Democrats have total control of Washington.
We can't let that happen, my friends. We've already seen a preview of their plans. It's pretty simple and, unfortunately, pretty familiar -- tax and spend. Now when Barney Frank, one of the most powerful...
(CROWD BOOS)
MCCAIN: One of the most powerful committee chairmen in the House of Representatives says that they're going to, quote, "focus on an immediate increase in spending," we should take him at his word.
And when he says that there are, quote, "a lot of very rich people out there whom we can tax," it's safe to assume that Barney means you.
You know it means you because the Democratic budget plan that they passed just this year with Senator Obama's help called for raising taxes on people making just $42,000 a year and Senator Obama has voted 94 times for tax increases or tax cuts.
HENRY: Now you can hear John McCain in Cedar Falls, Iowa, a key part of this final case to the American people is saying that Barack Obama can't take over the entire government with the Democratic Congress.
You heard that right there. And in fact, after this quick break we're going to hear much more from John McCain.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HENRY: I'm Ed Henry in Zanesville, Ohio where John McCain will be addressing supporters in just a couple of hours from now at a rally, but right now you can see John McCain is in Cedar Falls, Iowa.
A few moments ago, we took a live event with Barack Obama in Colorado. So in fairness, we want to go straight to Senator McCain.
MCCAIN: ... business taxes to help create jobs and keep American businesses in America. Raising taxes makes a bad economy much worse. Keeping taxes low creates jobs, keeps money in your hands, and strengthens our economy.
That's a basic fundamental.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: If I am elected president, I won't spend nearly $1 trillion more of your money. Senator Obama will and he can't do that without raising your taxes or digging us further into debt.
I'm going to make government live on a budget just like you do.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: I will freeze government spending on all but the most important programs like defense, veterans care, Social Security and health care, until we scrub every single government program and get rid of the ones that aren't working for the American people.
My friends, I will veto every single pork barrel bill that comes across my desk.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: If I'm...
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I love you, senator McCain!
MCCAIN: When I'm elected president, we're going to stop spending $700 billion to buy oil from countries that don't like us very much.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: You know the other night in a debate with Senator Obama I said his eloquence is admirable but pay attention to his words. We -- talked about offshore drilling and he said he would, quote, "consider offshore drilling.' We talked about nuclear power. Well, it has to be safe environment, blah, blah, blah, and the fact is...
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: And the fact is...
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: Ask -- ask any Navy veterans here -- by the way, some of the greatest...
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: By the way some of the greatest sailors come farthest away from the ocean. I found that to be true.
Ask some of our Navy veterans here. They'll tell you we've been sailing Navy ships around the world for 50 years with nuclear power plants on it. I have news for Senator Obama, nuclear power is safe. We ought to do it now.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: The British -- the British, the French, the Japanese all reprocess -- nuclear fuel. We can do that, too, and, by the way, he said he would consider offshore drilling. We'll drill offshore and we'll drill now and that will bring...
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
HENRY: You can hear John McCain right there in Cedar Falls, Iowa a few moments ago. We heard from Barack Obama in Denver, Colorado. You're going to hear a lot more from both of these candidates as well as their running mates, 4:00 p.m. Eastern when Candy Crowley and I co- anchor "BALLOT BOWL."
Bur right now, stay tuned for THIS WEEK IN POLITICS.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
FOREMAN: Black Eyed Peas echo what we find in our devil's dictionary this week. It defines a pollster as someone who gets lied to for a living. Well, like (INAUDIBLE), I've been searching for an honest man to explain all this. And I found two of them in our Newark bureau, Michael Crowley, senior editor of "The New Republic." And with me in D.C., our own nattering naybob of numbers, senior political analyst Bill Schneider.
Michael, let me start with you. If polling is a science, how come all the polls don't agree?
MICHAEL CROWLEY, THE NEW REPUBLIC: Well, because it's really not a science. I mean, in a way, it's more of an art. And different pollsters approach their work differently.
Now part of it, of course, is just if you call a whole bunch of people, you're going to have random variations, you're going to get different people just by chance. But you also have -- polls are not just purely the numbers that the pollsters found by calling everyone. They are also -- frequently reflect pollsters' interpretations and expectations of voter behavior, the likelihood that different groups are going to vote. So a big part of polling is kind of manipulating the numbers that they find to reflect their assumptions and predictions about behavior.
FOREMAN: Let me talk to Bill about that right now, because Bill, this seems to be the problem. Most of us look to polls from the outside and say this will tell me the truth of something. But this indicates that people are more trying to shape the truth of polls, trying to say, we will make up facts and then put numbers to back them.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I hope people don't make up the numbers. There is a difference between the poll and the interpretation, as Michael just said.
The numbers are there. There's a famous story that Jack Kennedy once was told by his pollster. Here are the numbers, Mr. President. Let me explain what they mean. And the president said, just show me the numbers, I'll figure out what they mean.
Well, that's the point. There is spin and there are the facts. The problem is, no poll is authoritative. I repeat, no poll is authoritative. Not even the CNN Opinion Research Corporation poll is authoritative. They all have built into them a margin of error. The best way to approximate the truth is to look at all the polls and see if there's any general tendencies. So we do a poll poll.
FOREMAN: That's a fear argument if you talk about more established polls. But I want you to look at a graphic here of a number of polls that were taken just in the second week of September of this year. CBS News had Obama up five points. FOX News had McCain up three points. NBC had Obama up one. ABC had McCain up two. "USA Today" had McCain up ten.
Michael, how can you explain this? These people are really trying to get at the truth and they're missing it so badly or not agreeing. What do we make of that?
CROWLEY: Well, I think Bill is right, that there is this kind of more recent innovation where there are averages at the polls. And I think that is helpful because you can kind of account for outliers on both sides.
But what you're seeing is to some extent sort of random variation, to some extent difference assumptions by different pollsters about voter behavior. Who's a likely voter? What is minority turnout going to be like? But you know...
FOREMAN: Clarify that, Michael. When you talk about what minority turnout is going to be like, tell me why that would affect the results of the poll?
CROWLEY: Well, for instance, one pollster might say, I think African- American turnout is going to be roughly what it was in 2004. And I -- based on the information I have, if you make that assumption, and based on the number of African-American voters who said they were going to go for Obama or McCain, this will be the final result.
Another pollster might say, I think there's good reason to believe, based in part on questions that I've been asking voters, and some take more care to do this than others, that African-American turnout will be much higher than it was in 2004. The pollster who makes that assumption is likely going to find a better result for Barack Obama. So to some extent again, these polls involve predictions of behavior.
FOREMAN: And there are, Bill, pollsters out there who are in the business of trying to make one candidate look better or the other one look better or to shape the argument a certain way.
SCHNEIDER: That's right. Candidates and campaigns and parties hire polling operations. They do it for two reasons. One, to give them information about what's happening out there. Number two, to give them spin so they can say hey, we're ten points ahead. And sometimes they'll cook the numbers a little bit. That's not correct according to the polling profession, but they will cook the numbers a little bit so they'd be able to advance their argument. Remember, you look at a -- you show a good poll, it helps you raise money because people think you're going to win. They want to give money to a winner.
FOREMAN: Is there, Bill, certain -- are there certain warning signs we should look for? For example, there are these very quick polls, polls that occur within hours of a speech being made that say this is what people thought of that. Is that a problem?
SCHNEIDER: That often is a problem. People often don't know what they think about something. After a debate, you have an immediate impression and then you have the next day after people have talked to their friends and neighbors or hung out around the water cooler. Which is more real? Often it's what happens the next day when they've heard the spin, they're heard the analysis, they've thought about it for a while, rather than the instantaneous reaction. The second reaction is often the more lasting. That's one sign you have to be careful. It's possible to poll too quickly.
And Michael, you also mentioned that in some cases, what people are being asked is about something they haven't even seen or haven't experienced. And the question may be too simple. For example, someone may propose a very nuanced jobs program. And the question may be do you think we should have more jobs in America?
CROWLEY: Yes, this, again, is -- gets to the question, why would you have different numbers than a poll taken on the same day? Different pollsters frame their questions with different language. And sometimes it can be leading. Or sometimes they will say let me tell you something about Barack Obama's tax plan. And the language they use can bias the respondent.
So pollsters, when you talk to them, it's actually very entertaining because they are so passionate about this. And they get so angry at the way the other guy framed this question or have a lot of admiration.
One pollster said to me that the Pew survey questions read like a sonnet. You know, it brought to tears to his eyes because they were so beautifully written. So a lot lies in the way you frame the question and whether you are essentially leading the witness, some people might say. FOREMAN: We've done polls which indicate that people aren't as confident about the whole voting and polling business as they once were. Bill, you've been in this for a long time. You've watched a lot of elections. Are you more trusting the polls now or less?
SCHNEIDER: Well, in a way more. You know why? Because there are more of them. If there are a lot of different polls, some will be good, some will be bad, some will be wrong. The only way to approximate the truth, and that's all polls are, an approximation of the truth, is to look at a lot of them, at least the good ones, and see if there's any general tendencies.
You know those polls you showed from early September?
FOREMAN: Sure.
SCHNEIDER: They seemed to be all over the place. They told a story. The story they told is McCain was catching up after his convention. After he picked Sarah Palin, there was a lot of excitement. Some of the polls showed McCain ahead. A couple of them showed Obama very close. There was -- the approximation of the truth was after his convention, McCain caught up to Obama. And then Obama started building the lead. That's what I get out of it.
FOREMAN: You have to look at them very closely. Bill, thanks for being here. Michael, as well.
Maybe we don't know what you're going to do when you get into the polling place, but you will know what happens. If you are aware of voter fraud, call the CNN voter hotline. Help us track the problem. We'll report the trouble. Call 1-877-462-6608.
When we come back, are we heading for another Great Depression? Well, we'll take a hard look at hard times. And times are certainly tough for John McCain right now. But there may be a silver lining to his position in this race, which brings us to our twip tip.
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FOREMAN (voice-over): That sound of hammering you hear is McCain trying to put Obama into a box, framing him as the big money insider almost incumbent president. Of course, George Bush is actually the incumbent, but he's not running. So the McCain crew is trying to make Obama look like he's already won. He's the insider, he's king of the hill. And that would make McCain the underdog.
Will it work? Keep watching. Stranger things have happened. And that's our twip tip.
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FOREMAN: Here is a story you might have missed this week while you were sleeping or more likely getting awakened by political robocalls. The global economic crisis is worsening and the chief of the international monetary fund charged with helping developing countries weather the storm is embroiled in a sex scandal. Dominic Strauss-Kahn is under investigation for allegedly abusing his power in an affair with a co-worker. He's denied any wrongdoing. But does this found familiar? It should. 15 months ago, Paul Wolfowitz resigned as president of the World Bank under pressure because of alleged favoritism toward an employee. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
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MCCAIN: My friends, Senator Obama wants to raise taxes and restrict trade. The last time America did that in a bad economy, it led to the Great Depression.
OBAMA: We meet at a great moment of uncertainty for America. The economic crisis we face is the worst since the Great Depression. I know these are difficult times. I know folks are worried, but I am convinced that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis because I believe in this country.
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FOREMAN: With the number of times you've heard about the Great Depression lately, you'd be excused in thinking it was time to invest in apples like these guys here. But is it really all that bad? Let's check out the truth.
And for that, I'm joined by "Wall Street Journal" assistant managing editor Gerry Seib.
And Gerry, I want to start off with a poll. We asked people, is another Depression likely within the next year? And 41 percent said, yes, it is. Is there any reason for them to be that afraid?
GERALD SEIB: I don't think so. You have to -- a Depression is a big event. And it takes a long time to happen. You have to remember, the stock market crashed in 1929. The Depression probably hit its worst point in the spring of 1933, four years later. It's a long, slow process to sink that far down.
FOREMAN: And it lingered until World War II really.
SEIB: Pretty much.
FOREMAN: (INAUDIBLE).
SEIB: Yes, unemployment was -- when Franklin Roosevelt took office in 1923, at almost 25 percent. It's at 6 percent today. So we're a long way from that point.
FOREMAN: You bring up the numbers. I want to look at the numbers, because when we try to find the truth in our truth squad here, it can be very, very helpful to look at simple math, not what you feel about things, just what the numbers say.
Here are the numbers about the Depression. Unemployment was about 25 percent as you said in the Great Depression. Now, a little over 6 percent. That's a huge difference. Back then, 1 in 3 banks had trouble. They had serious problems. Now you're talking about 1 percent or 2 percent, that's 1 or 2 out of 100 banks. And bear in mind also that there are a lot of safeguards in place now that were not in place back then. And when you look at the stock market losses, back then like 90 percent of the value of the stock market. We're talking about 40 percent. We're going to look at the current losses right now. And that's still up and down, isn't it?
SEIB: Exactly. And you know, things can get worse. And they probably will get worse in the real economy. But there's a long gap between where we are now and where the depth of that depth of the Depression would take you.
FOREMAN: I have a lot of doubts sometimes when economic people say, oh, no, we can't get into a Depression. But at the same time, there have been safeguards put into place...
SEIB: Right.
FOREMAN: ...for all of our problems. Describe to me what we're doing differently today.
SEIB: The biggest thing that's happening now that did not happen then is that the government is acting. And particularly the Federal Reserve bank is acting.
What happened in the Great Depression was the Fed didn't loosen up the money supply. It didn't increase the money supply enough to keep the economy moving. It stood there for a long time and let that happen. In fact, it tightened the money supply at one crucial point in 1931.
Now you have the Fed doing the opposite. It has started to pump money into the system in big ways and right at the beginning. There's not a coincidence there, by the way. Ben Bernanke, who now runs the Federal Reserve System, is and was a student of the Great Depression and what didn't happen right in the 1929 to 1934-35 period.
So he's thought about this a lot. He's doing the opposite now of what the government's financial mechanisms did in those days.
FOREMAN: As people try to figure out whom to trust in their arguments about all this whole thing, though, I guess one of the fears for people is, will it be enough?
SEIB: Yes.
FOREMAN: Is there such a thing as us simply of running out of money to pump into the system and we still crash?
SEIB: There is. And one of the reasons to wonder about that, I think now, is that this is a much more global economy than it was in those days. There were global ramifications of the Depression. And the international financial system was not very coordinated then.
Frankly, it's not all that coordinated now. And so their -- one of the things you're seeing this week is the reverberations of the problem of the credit markets sort of circling the globe starting here, moving to Asia, and then moving back to hit the stock market on the second way around. And so, I think when that process stops, there's still a great unknown.
FOREMAN: So are the candidates helping or hurting with the business community, with investment, with people wanting to move ahead by bringing up the Great Depression a lot? Is that a reasonable warning? Or is that fear-mongering in a way that hurts from both sides?
SEIB: It probably doesn't help in the following sense. One of the things that's going to put a brake on things now is reduced consumer spending. That's what the stock market is worried about this week, not what's happening in the financial institutions. What's happening in the real economy that consumers drive. I think you could consume -- it could drive consumer fears too far down and make things worse. But on the other hand, you can't avoid bad news either.
FOREMAN: Gerry Seib, thanks for being here. We appreciate it.
SEIB: Happy to be here.
FOREMAN: Don't go anywhere. We've got this week's politics compressed into 60 seconds. Next week's politics today. And of course, our late night laughs. And this week, we're adding D.L. Hughley to our esteemed list of late night comedians. Do not miss the premiere of CNN's newest program, "DL Hughley Breaks the News" tonight at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.
Here's a preview.
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DL HUGHLEY: But you haven't endorsed anybody?
SCOTT MCCLELLAN: Right.
HUGHLEY: And it's McCain and it's Obama. You know, and I'm running the show - and your endorsement, we'll probably (INAUDIBLE). And don't look at the fact that I'm black - or nothing like -- no pressure. Endorse somebody, damn it, endorse somebody.
MCCLELLAN: From the very beginning I've said I'm going to support McCain and has the best chance of changing the way Washington works and getting things done. I will be voting for Barack Obama.
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FOREMAN: It's time to hop on the fast track. Everything you need to know to get through the next week in politics. And our guide this week is deputy political director Paul Steinhauser. Halloween is upon us. So are we going to see kids dressed as politicians?
PAUL STEINHAUSER: Well, Tom, what we are going to see is a lot of big campaign commercials. We've got about a week left in this. And you know what? The campaigns, they want to get out their message. How do you do it? You advertise on TV. That's what both campaigns are doing. They got millions of dollars to do this. But the Obama campaign's got more. And they're going that extra yard.
This Wednesday, they're buying a half an hour on primetime on the major networks, Tom. We're talking big bucks in primetime.
FOREMAN: We haven't heard a lot from up on Capitol Hill lately. What are the goblins up to up there?
STEINHAUSER: Call it the forgotten story this Halloween season. But yes, there is a battle in Congress going on. And it's mostly forgotten by the national media but it exists. The Democrats, they want to expand their majorities in the House and their slight majority in the Senate. The Republicans, they have precious funds left. Are they pulling them out of some races and putting them in the other? We're keeping an eye on that, Tom.
FOREMAN: And speaking of forgotten, the U.N. is going to vote once again on the boycott against Cuba. The U.S. says it never wants to drop it. Is anything going to change this time?
STEINHAUSER: Well, there's a great political angle to this, Tom. It's called the Cuban vote in Florida, which was reliably Republican for many years. Now maybe not so reliable anymore. Cubans, though, could be crucial in Florida. 27 electoral votes at stake there. And the Cuban vote could swing the state one way or the other. That vote this week coming up could be important, Tom.
FOREMAN: Thanks so much, Paul Steinhauser, good job. And speaking of jobs, let's take a look at our late night laughs.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well nation, lots of good news out there today. The Dow went up 172 points! So the economy is fixed. I tell you that took forever.
JON STEWART: How do you spend $150,000 on clothes in two months? What do you buy the original "Thriller" jacket off of Ebay? All right, got me that, all right.
PALIN: Jane, the engineer and Molly the dental hygienist and chuck the teacher.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I believe they went on to single out Bob the Builder, Dora the Explorer, and Thomas the tank engine.
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TIME STAMP: 1857:14
FOREMAN: We have just enough time left for our political version of short attention span theater. Don't blink, you could miss it. Our one minute "Week in Politics."
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MCCAIN: We have 15 days to go.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Only 14 days.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: 13 days to go.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Just 12 days.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Eleven days.
BETTY NGUYEN, CNN ANCHOR: Ten days to go.
PALIN: Spread the wealth.
DREW GRIFFIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Is Barack Obama a socialist?
PALIN: It sounds more like socialism.
OBAMA: They called me socialistic.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I say it's clearly wealth redistribution.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: From average Joe to everyday Ed.
JOE THE PLUMBRE: I'm a flash in the pan.
JOE BIDEN: Joe the fireman, Joe the policeman.
PALIN: Ed the dairy man, Tito the builder.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: $150,000 on clothes and accessories for Governor Palin.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Looks like a million dollars.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Biden's warning that Barack Obama will be tested.
MCCAIN: Look, I've been tested.
PALIN: John McCain is a tested leader.
OBAMA: I think that Joe sometimes engages in rhetorical flourishes.
We want to regrow the pie.
MCCAIN: He believes in redistributing wealth.
OBAMA: Everybody here wants some pie.
MCCAIN: Create jobs and opportunities.
OBAMA: And we want a slice of the pie.
MCCAIN: Who gets your piece of the pie? PALIN: We're all Joe the plumber, too.
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FOREMAN: Joe, Bob, Sue, Phil, that's it for THIS WEEK IN POLITICS. I'm Tom Foreman. Thanks for watching.
Straight ahead, "Lou Dobbs This Week."
