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Candidates Continue Appearances, Focus on Economy; Senator Stevens Found Guilty; Kilpatrick to be Sentenced; Feds to cut Rates; Iraq's Most Vulnerable
Aired October 28, 2008 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Seven days left. Candidates leaving no battleground state unturned. This hour, McCain and Obama both in Pennsylvania.
Plus, Wall Street heading for a higher open, what's the bounce in the bounce back? We'll talk about that.
And it is Tuesday, October 28th. I'm Heidi Collins, you're in the CNN NEWSROOM.
The final week, the final push. Pennsylvania is the focus this morning for both presidential candidates. We are waiting to hear from Senator John McCain. That will happen next hour. The Republican nominee then heads to North Carolina. Closing out his day in Florida.
His running mate, Governor Sarah Palin, campaigns with him and then on her own in Pennsylvania.
Senator Barack Obama, he's there, too. He sets to rally voters next hour, as well, before traveling on to Virginia. His running mate, Senator Joe Biden taking the Democrats' message across Florida.
Back to Pennsylvania, though, now, which lately has leaned Democratic and with seven days to go in this race the latest CNN Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 10 percentage points.
But the Republican is telling his supporters he is not afraid of the fight and neither should they be.
We have correspondents covering all the angles of the campaign. Dana Bash is on the Republican trail in Quakertown. Suzanne Malveaux waiting for Senator Obama just outside Philadelphia in Chester.
Let's go ahead and start with you, Dana, and Senator McCain's message that we'll be hearing today.
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think the first thing to tell you, Heidi, is that Senator McCain's message is going to be about -- half as loud as it was supposed to be in this state.
And you can probably see behind me the weather is not great. And in fact, he was supposed to have a big rally outside where I am in Quakertown. The McCain campaign -- they've canceled it. So he's not coming here. He's only now going to have one event in about an hour in Hershey, Pennsylvania. Not such great news for McCain who really, really needs to do well in this state and is already an incredibly uphill climb for him.
He's down by double digits and this is a blue state with 21 electoral votes, very rich in electoral votes that he is trying desperately to turn red.
Now, his message, Heidi, is going to be basically what we heard from him last night in Pennsylvania, what we've been hearing from him for the past several weeks, pounding away on Barack Obama on the economy and taxes.
Listen to his message last night.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Senator Obama's running to spread the wealth, I'm running to create more wealth. Senator Obama -- Senator Obama is running to punish the successful, I'm running to make everyone successful.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BASH: Now, that is a message, Heidi, that his campaign says their internal polling shows is giving them a bit of traction particularly with the voters they need to win, states like Pennsylvania.
Blue-collar voters, rural voters, those voters who are more likely to go John McCain's way than Barack Obama's way. So it is the message that we're going to keep hearing from him time and time again.
They're up with a new ad with kind of a similar idea, a contrast ad going back and forth showing what McCain would do on taxes and what Barack Obama would do on taxes.
A question a lot of Republicans, Heidi, are asking, though, is, you know, they say this is a fine message, it makes sense to paint Barack Obama in these traditional terms as a liberal who will raise your taxes.
But is it too late to really get this across to voters who may have already made up their minds? Heidi?
COLLINS: All right. Now all we need to do is get somebody to control the weather and then we'll see what happens.
BASH: Yes.
COLLINS: All right. Dana Bash, I sure do appreciate that.
BASH: Thank you.
COLLINS: We could see dueling campaign rallies next hour. Senator Obama getting ready to speak in the Philadelphia suburb of Chester. Our Suzanne Malveaux is there this morning.
So Suzanne, why is Obama campaigning in Pennsylvania? We just saw the CNN Poll of Polls that shows him up by about 10 percentage points.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Heidi, first of all, if you talk about the weather, the Obama campaign says they're not going to let this weather rain on their parade.
We have seen some supporters out here since 5:00 in the morning. This is an outdoor rally here under the rain. They're not allowed to have umbrellas, just their raincoats. So, clearly, a lot of support here in Pennsylvania.
You mentioned the poll about 10-point spread, Barack Obama in the lead, but as Governor Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania put it, last week he said don't take anything for granted and he essentially told Barack Obama come back, we want you back here.
The McCain and Palin have essentially been camping, he says, in this state. People are beginning to notice that they want to make sure that every supporter is not taken for granted.
So that is why Barack Obama's here with his message. And what he is calling it this week is his closing argument. His final case to voters. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In one week, we can choose to invest in health care for our families and education for our kids and renewable energy for our future.
In one week, we can choose hope over fear and unity over division. The promise of change over the power of the status quo. In one week, we can come together as one nation and one people and once more to the better history.
That's what's at stake, that's what we're fighting for.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: And Heidi, that was yesterday in Canton, Ohio. Obviously a critical state for John McCain, but a state that Barack Obama believes that perhaps they can capture this time around.
It's also a state that has one of the highest unemployment rates, second only to Michigan. So, clearly, a lot of people paying very close attention to Barack Obama's economic plan. But he is also that broad vision of change.
And today he's in Pennsylvania, essentially, just trying to make sure that he doesn't lose his lead -- Heidi.
COLLINS: All right, CNN's Suzanne Malveaux this morning from Chester, Pennsylvania.
Thank you, Suzanne.
Our latest Poll of Polls finds 6 percent of Americans are still undecided in the presidential race. We are seven days away. So what are you waiting for?
We really want to know if you are still one of those undecided voters. What is it that's going to make up your mind? You can e-mail us at CNNnewsroom@CNN.com. We're going to be reading some of them a little bit later on right here on the show.
What a difference a day makes. Overseas markets on the move up today. Yes, up. It's a dramatic reversal to the staggering losses we were telling you about this same time yesterday.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng soared more than 14 percent. Japan's Nikkei jumped nearly 6.5 percent. And in the U.S. investors are, of course, keeping a close eye on next hour's consumer confidence report. It offers clues on whether Americans will actually spend their money.
Also on the radar, the Federal Reserve is meeting today and is expected to announce another cut in interest rates tomorrow. The big question, how big will the cut be?
Let's get the latest now, CNN's Christine Romans is in New York this morning.
Boy, that's true, what a difference a day makes, huh, Christine?
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's absolutely right. And important news just crossing right now. News about the value of your home.
The Case-Shiller index of home prices showing that the 20-city index of home prices down 16 percent year-over-year in August and that the ten-city index down more than 17 percent, Heidi.
So, in August, you saw the value of your home likely decline across the country by a record amount according to this one index. So that's just the latest information that clearly Fed officials will be talking about in the decline in value of people's homes and what that means for the foreclosure crisis and -- and watching this as credit crisis, you know, continue to unfold in this country.
But keep in mind, what a difference a day makes, you're right, the stock market is indicated to open higher in about 22 minutes. Dow futures have been up sharply all morning on the heels of those big rallies overseas.
So we'll see if this cruel, cruel month of October can have a big rally day in it today. Futures have been unpredictable. As you know every morning we sit here and talk about what the -- what the indications are and sometimes it doesn't pan out or it doesn't pan out for very long. So it's a very volatile, volatile market.
Now, quickly, I want to tell you about some of the earnings that are coming through. Whirlpool says it's going to cut another 5,000 jobs and it's what the CEO had to say about the operating environment that got a lot of people's attention this morning.
This is what companies have been saying about the credit crisis. "The global credit crisis has had a profound negative impact on what was already weakening and very fragile global economy.
Declining home values -- we just saw in that number -- rising unemployment, very low consumer confidence levels, likely prolong a negative demand environment at least through the middle of 2009.
This is the problem with the stock market right now. This is the problem with consumer spending right now. This is the problem with consumer confidence right now. We're talking about 2009, CEOs are saying that they expect until 2009 to see any kind of -- any kind of recovery.
Now, quickly, we've already seen a lot of damage in the stock market, though. So the question now becomes how much more, if any, is in the pipeline in terms of damages for stocks. How much of that weak economic outlook is already factored in here?
You've got stocks down some 38 percent on the Dow, 43 percent on the NASDAQ, 42 percent on the S&P. This is right in line, if not worse than your normal bear market damage, Heidi.
COLLINS: Yes.
ROMANS: So the question is, how much of that grim assessment, like we heard from the Whirlpool CEO, is already factored into these, you know, horrific stock market performances? And today, it looks like stock are opening higher -- Heidi?
COLLINS: All right. Well, we'll be waiting for that in about 20 minutes from now...
ROMANS: Sure.
COLLINS: ... when the opening bell rang. Sure do appreciate it, Christine Romans. Thank you.
Senator Ted Stevens next week, he will face reelection as a convicted felon. A jury found him guilty yesterday of corruption. They sided with prosecutors who say Stevens tried to hide $250,000 worth of gifts and home renovations from a wealthy oil contractor.
The most damaging witness in the trial may have been Stevens himself.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOSHUA BERMAN, FORMER FEDERAL PROSECUTOR: When Stevens finally took the stand and the prosecutors had their crack at him on cross- examination, they made great headway.
Some of his responses were questionable and some of the answers he gave just didn't hold water in the jurors' eyes.
(END VIDEO CLIP) COLLINS: The verdict drew a quick response from Sarah Palin, the Alaskan governor who's on the presidential trail.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. SARAH PALIN (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm confident that Senator Stevens, from this point on, will do the right thing for the state.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Stevens is the longest serving Republican in the Senate where he first took office in 1968. He is vowing to appeal the guilty verdict. The 84-year-old could face 35 years in prison.
This is sentencing day for Detroit's former mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick. You may remember last month he pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice. But much of the attention focused on the sex scandal that was exposed at the same time.
Kilpatrick's sentence already spelled out in a deal with prosecutors. He'll serve 120 days in jail and spend 23 hours each day in a small cinder block cell.
Kilpatrick still faces many legal challenges when he is free, including an order to pay the city $1 million.
Rob Marciano joining us now to take a look at all the weather across the country and the one that kind of caught my eye is the snow coming down in the northeast?
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes.
COLLINS: Yes?
MARCIANO: Yes, a little bit of wet snow and just all around nastiness.
Check this out, Heidi, we're talking about wind and rain and temperatures like will be in the 40s, in some cases, the 30s. So it's one of those days where you just don't want to go outside. Get them like this sometimes in the fall. But this is a storm that is very strong even for this time of year.
(WEATHER REPORT)
MARCIANO: Remember they're trying to finish the World Series game tonight, Heidi.
COLLINS: I know.
MARCIANO: And temperatures there will probably be running on 40. Rain on and off, probably just as nasty as it was last night.
COLLINS: Yes.
MARCIANO: So I don't know if they'll get that in.
COLLINS: So many sad faces in those stands. It was just really so bad.
MARCIANO: You pay that money.
COLLINS: I know.
MARCIANO: You want to tough it out, for sure.
COLLINS: Yes. All right. Well, we know you're watching that for us, too.
Thank you, Rob.
MARCIANO: All right.
COLLINS: We'll check back later on.
MARCIANO: Sounds good.
COLLINS: Health care plans in focus now. The presidential candidates zero in on a common theme -- prevention.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: "10 Issues in 10 Days." Today we are taking a closer look at the candidates' plans for healthcare. Certainly something everyone is talking about. And the big push, each is making for prevention now.
Here's what they're saying on the campaign trail.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: We're going to focus on prevention, on promoting wellness rather than just managing sickness. Today we spend less than 4 cents of every health care dollar on prevention in public health.
MCCAIN: We need to create a next generation of chronic disease prevention, early intervention, new treatment models, and public health infrastructure.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Joining me now is our chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, to talk a little bit more about an issue that certainly affects everybody.
What types of services are they talking about? Now why such a big push for preventive medicine?
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is one area that they both agree in terms of bringing down healthcare costs which has been a rallying cry when talking about healthcare and -- for almost this entire campaign. There are about 130 million people that have chronic disease. And sort of the point is that we spend so much money managing disease and so little money actually keeping people from getting the disease in the first place.
COLLINS: Yes.
GUPTA: That's the way to think about it. 130 million Americans, about 75 percent of the U.S. healthcare spending -- $1.5 trillion a year -- goes towards disease management as opposed to prevention.
Now the point is what does prevention really do for you? And I think that's the question a lot of people are asking. Medically it makes sense. Right? I mean...
COLLINS: Sure.
GUPTA: ... who wants somebody to get sick in the first place? They just -- they don't live the life that they want to live. But it can also make you live long with some pretty simple changes.
Some things that we've talked about in the past, obviously, quitting smoking, that adds 10 years. We say it all the time, 10 years, healthy blood pressure adds five years. You can see the numbers there. Lower cholesterol adds three to eight years. Simply keeping a healthy weight, body mass index less than 30, can add three to four years as well.
These are -- these are things that we sort of know but there's not enough emphasis in our healthcare system towards making people actually live longer through these.
COLLINS: Yes, I kind of chuckle at the BMI thing because we just thought that -- I won't use a product name, but a certain computer program at home where you stand on and it gives you the BMI every day.
GUPTA: What was your BMI?
COLLINS: It was normal. It was normal. Thank you very much.
GUPTA: Just kidding.
COLLINS: But you know, when you talk about...
GUPTA: Never ask a woman her BMI.
COLLINS: I'll tell you after.
When you talk about prevention, there are some people who say, you know, it costs an awful lot of money to work on preventive medicines, programs. But as you just said, isn't it less expensive in the long run if you don't get sick to begin with?
GUPTA: This is surprisingly controversial for the reasons that you mentioned. People say, look, it costs so much money to transfer the system, this radical change from disease management to prevention. It is going to cost more money up front to do more screenings, for example, to get nurses into homes, to do blood pressure screenings, to do blood glucose screenings, but, again, medically as a doctor, these things make sense.
There's also a potential risk of over diagnosis.
COLLINS: Yes.
GUPTA: Meaning, taking a healthy population, they do a CAT scan and they see something. Well, that might lead to a biopsy. It may lead to an operation. That, obviously, can cause anxiety and more money.
But in the end, prevention seems to -- medically make a lot of sense because it keeps people healthier.
COLLINS: Yes. And there are a lot of services out there, aren't there, I mean preventative wise, that are under you?
GUPTA: That...
COLLINS: People don't really tap into it.
GUPTA: Great point, because a lot of things, for example, cancer screenings, as we're talking about, which, you know, for women over the age of 40, they should be getting mammograms.
Certain federal entitlements already allow mammograms to get paid for. Prostate cancer screening for men over the age of 50. Same sort of thing. So there are some preventive services already available and you have to check with your doctor or health insurance company about that.
COLLINS: Yes. Yes. It's a good point. And certainly, like we said, one of the issues that everybody is going to be talking about and still talking about.
Really, we have seven days to go. Can you believe it?
GUPTA: I know. I can't believe it.
COLLINS: Dr. Sanjay Gupta...
GUPTA: Seven issues, seven days.
COLLINS: That's right. That's very good. We'll talk with you again shortly. Thanks so much.
Meanwhile, education is what we'll be talking about as we keep breaking down the issues that matter most to you. Tomorrow we are all about education. From No Child Left Behind to keeping both teachers and students in the classroom, the problems and the plans.
"10 Issues in Only 10 Days" only on CNN.
An Oscar-winning actress' real life tragedy. Killings in the family. An update now on the case.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Oscar-winning actress, Jennifer Hudson, her family's last bit of hope crushed yesterday with the discovery of her nephew's body. He had been shot to death just like Hudson's mom and brother.
Let's get the latest now. CNN's Susan Roesgen is in Chicago this morning to tell us more about it.
Boy, it is just an absolute tragedy, Susan.
SUSAN ROESGEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I really think so, Heidi. The entire city seemed to have been, you know, really hanging on this story, hoping that that boy would be found.
The latest on the investigation is no motive, no weapon, and no real suspect. And for Jennifer Hudson, of course, her stardom is no protection from pain.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROESGEN (voice over): Jennifer Hudson had to go to the morgue to identify the third family member shot dead. Her 7-year-old nephew, Julian.
JODY WEIS, CHICAGO POLICE: Obviously, you know, we were trying to find him as quickly as we could. You know every minute that passes, you get more and more nervous that he may have fallen to harm's way.
ROESGEN: Chicago police say it was a neighbor who tipped them to the SUV they had been searching for all weekend and police confirmed that the 7-year-old's body was in the backseat.
Jennifer Hudson had offered a $100,000 reward to try to get the boy home safely after the bodies of her mother and brother were found in the family home on Friday. Now the questions are who and why?
WEIS: We don't know what the motive really was at this time. But clearly you have people who do know each other. So it wasn't a case of a stranger type homicide.
ROESGEN: The police have been questioning William Balfour, the boy's stepfather, but still won't say he is a suspect. And if Balfour has been in their custody since Friday night, who might have been driving the stolen SUV? And how long had the child been dead?
The police have not found the gun that was used in the murders and they said they don't know if more than one person was involved. A terrible mystery for the big city star with hometown roots. The "Dreamgirl" who could not have dreamed of such personal tragedy.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROESGEN: We haven't heard anything yet about funeral arrangements or whether there's going to be a public memorial. And we haven't yet, besides that glimpse there, Heidi, of Jennifer Hudson under the black umbrella.
We haven't seen her in the city. She hasn't spoken publicly about this at all.
COLLINS: Boy, yes, as a mother of a 7-year-old, I mean, anybody would say who on earth and why would you kill a 7-year-old child? I know they're still really working very hard on that motive.
ROESGEN: Yes, they really are. I think there are a couple thoughts on the child. One is that if this was a revenge killing, this was sheer brutality, kill the mother, kill the brother, kill the child.
But the other line of thought is simply that this child, at 7 years old, Heidi, you would know this, is a witness.
COLLINS: Sure.
ROESGEN: The child could have identified whoever the killer was. So they may have taken -- the person or persons may have taken the child out of the house and then decided later to kill him because he could have identified the killers.
COLLINS: Well, yesterday when we were watching with you all of this unfold, we were really, really hoping that this wasn't going to be the case, but unfortunately, it is.
I know you're following up for us. Susan Roesgen, sure do appreciate it, from Chicago this morning, thank you.
A year in limbo. Today marks the first anniversary of the disappearance of Stacy Peterson. The mystery has been tabloid fodder since it burst into the headlines. The 23-year-old Chicago woman was the fourth wife of a police officer.
Drew Peterson, who is more than twice her age, was quickly labeled a suspect. Police also exhumed the body of his third wife and ruled her bathtub drowning a homicide. No suspects have been named in Stacy Peterson's death.
Peterson has always denied any wrongdoing.
Back to the politics now. The other races worth watching. Congressional Democrats hoping to take advantage of vulnerable Republican incumbents. The balance of power in play.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Down up, down. That's the way the markets have been acting. And this week it's certainly no different. Yesterday a global sell- off hit stocks around the world. But now we are seeing sort of a global rebound.
Susan Lisovicz is at the New York Stock Exchange now with details on this. Just a minute or so until the trading day begins.
Susan, good morning. SUSAN LISOVICZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Heidi.
Well, we're gearing up for another triple digit move on the Dow. This time to the upside. The rebound coming as Japan's Nikkei rose more than 6 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged more than 14 percent, marking its biggest gain in 11 years.
Despite the rally, of course, the economy is still issue number one. At the top of the hour we've got a report showing home prices fell in August for the 25th straight month. In a half an hour, we're expecting another drop in consumer confidence. To help analysts say the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by a half point tomorrow, bringing it down to one percent, a level lasting in the post 9/11 economy.
And check it out, you have triple digit gains seconds into the trading day, Heidi. And one of the reasons why is because of the expectation we're getting more help from the Fed. As the central bank meets, well, more jobs are being cut. Whirlpool says it's slashing 5,000 positions by the end of next year, also lowering its earnings outlook for the year.
But Boeing employees could soon be heading back to work. The machinist strike, which lasted nearly two months, may be over now that a tentative four-year agreement has been reached. Boeing shares are flying. Right now they're up 8.5 percent. Finally oil giant BP posted more than 80 percent surge in quarterly profits, Europe's second largest oil company earned more than $8 billion over the past two months.
Investors are sending BP shares that trade here up 11 percent. And as you can see, we've got nice gains in the first few -- first minute of trading. The Dow industrials have been down 15 of the last 19 sessions, Heidi, which makes it on track to be the worst month since September of 1931. So we'll be happy to say good-bye to October at the end of this week. But just to put it, you know, in the it could be worse department, Heidi...
(CROSSTALK)
LISOVICZ: I know you're ready for this, Japan's Nikkei, which is benchmark index, the equivalent of our Dow 30...
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Right.
LISOVICZ: ... closed at its lowest level since October of '82. In October of '82, the Dow was at 992 points.
COLLINS: Yeah, see?
LISOVICZ: So 8395 does not look so bad now, does it?
COLLINS: It does not look so bad. Thank you, Miss Half Glass Full...
(CROSSTALK) COLLINS: ... Glass half full, there we go.
LISOVICZ: Yes.
COLLINS: That's what it is. Thanks so much, appreciate it.
LISOVICZ: You're welcome.
COLLINS: We'll check in later on.
As we have said, seven days left to make up your mind if you have not already. And it's those undecided votes the candidates are certainly going after in the key swing states. Today's battle, in Pennsylvania, Senators Barack Obama, John McCain, are both holding rallies in different cities next hour.
McCain being joined by his running mate, Governor Sarah Palin, meanwhile Senator Joe Biden is looking for more support for the Democratic ticket in Florida. Florida just one of the states where the candidates are running neck and neck. Our deputy political director Paul Steinhauser has been going through all of the latest poll numbers. All right, so Paul, what are you seeing here?
PAUL STEINHAUSER, DEPUTY POLITICAL DIRECTOR: I'm seeing Pennsylvania, I'm seeing a lot of (INAUDIBLE) from the candidates for Pennsylvania because they are there over and over and over. Let's take a look at the latest numbers, though.
A brand new CNN poll of polls and that's where we average out the latest state surveys and it's still 10 points for Obama over McCain in Pennsylvania with six percent of voters still they haven't decided yet. And Pennsylvania is interesting, Heidi, because this is a state where McCain really thinks he can grab it away. This is a state that voted for Kerry four years ago, but this is a state where McCain really needs a victory.
Later today McCain is heading down to North Carolina. Take a look at our latest CNN/"TIME" Opinion Research Corporation poll there. Another state, this hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential election since 1976, if you can believe it. But we have Obama up by four points.
And let's also take a look at Virginia, also in the same region, that's where Obama spends the day. This state hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential election since 1964, that's a long, long time ago. But Obama in our latest Poll of Polls there is up by about five points in Virginia.
And one other thing, Florida today, you mentioned Joe Biden is down there, it all came down to Florida eight years ago. Five -- four years ago, Bush won by four points or five points, now look at it, it's pretty much a dead, dead heat there in Florida, 27 electoral votes, so important.
But Heidi, there's a theme here, other than Pennsylvania, they're all campaigning in states that Bush won and John McCain is definitely on the defense in these states. He's down not by a heck of a lot, but he's down in these states.
COLLINS: Yeah and it's still so incredibly interesting, seven days away, as we keep repeating here, Paul. What do you see in the overall national picture?
STEINHAUSER: Let's take a look at our national Poll of Polls. We do the same thing nationally. We take a lot of surveys and we average them together. And right now our new one out last night has Barack Obama up by about eight points with six percent undecided. It's interesting, he's over 50 percent here, and that's a number that you know people look at, pollsters take a close look at.
People have been asking us, has anybody ever come back from being down by eight points so close to the election? And we had to go back to 1980 when Ronald Reagan came back. They had one debate. It was very late in the campaign just before the election.
He was down in the polls. He did very well in the debate and then Reagan beat Carter, but other than that, no. But again, these polls are a snapshot, Heidi, of how people feel now and is still a week away, things can change, Heidi.
COLLINS: Yeah, there's still some undecideds out there. Isn't that interesting? We're going to be talking a little bit more about that today. We've actually asked for people to let us know what it is they're waiting to hear with seven days left -- deputy political director Paul Steinhauser, nice to see you, Paul. Thank you.
STEINHAUSER: Thank you.
COLLINS: Senator Ted Stevens found guilty in his federal corruption trial. That's another stumbling block for Republicans. They are already facing the possibility of losing several Senate seats next week. Martin Kady is a congressional correspondent for Politico.com. He is joining us from Washington this morning. Thanks so much for being here, Martin, sure do appreciate it.
MARTIN KADY, CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT, POLITICO.COM: Good morning. Thank you.
COLLINS: Let's begin with the Senate. Some graphics here that we want to show the viewers at home, the current break down of which races are really in play. When we look at the Senate breakdown there, we see Democrats at 49, the GOP, 49, and Independents, two.
Then when we look at the Senate races in play because this is what we're talking about here, 35 seats today, anyway, 23 Republican, 12 Democrat. Do you think the Democrats could reach that magic number that we always talk about, which is 60, of course?
KADY: Well I never thought we'd be talking about this when we started more closely following this at the beginning of the year. But yes, they do have a shot. The Senate race is basically broken down into three tiers. There's the ones that are goners that are probably going to go to Democrats no matter what. That's Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado. COLLINS: OK.
KADY: And there's this in the middle that are tipping toward Democrats. That's North Carolina, Alaska now certainly with the Ted Stevens conviction, Minnesota, Oregon, New Hampshire all leaning Democrat. Then that gets us to about 58 Democratic senators.
Then there's these long shot ones that are suddenly close. That's Kentucky, where minority leader of the Senate Mitch McConnell is very close and even Georgia where Saxby Chambliss (ph), a conservative...
COLLINS: Yeah.
KADY: ... southern Republican is within the margin of error, as well. That gives the Democrats 60.
COLLINS: Well let's talk about some of these. And we've got four here real quickly that we do want to go through with a little bit more detail...
KADY: Sure.
COLLINS: You talked about Kentucky. Mitch McConnell versus Bruce Lunsford. What are we thinking here? We see their pictures up. Why do you think it's leaning the way that you think it will lean and remind us again.
KADY: Well Lunsford is not a known commodity nationwide or even in Kentucky. He's a successful businessman. He doesn't have a long history in politics. But really in McConnell's case, this seems to be national politics, the national environment for Republicans, just hurting McConnell.
He's very popular in Kentucky. He's the minority leader. He's raised a lot of money. It should be a slam dunk for him. And it looked like it was going to be earlier this year, but really this is national politics, the anti-Washington sentiment affecting his race in Kentucky.
COLLINS: Interesting. All right to North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole versus Kay Hagan, obviously Elizabeth Dole the incumbent here.
KADY: In this race, I visited North Carolina back in August, interviewed both of these candidates and spent some time in North Carolina. And what's happened is that the North Carolinians seem to think that Dole has been ineffective. Her ratings for effectiveness as U.S. senator are low. Hagan is a strong candidate.
She's really been on the attack against Dole. And that hasn't backfired. And it's put her up by a few points. So Hagan is a state senator. She's from Greensboro, North Carolina. She's trying to portray herself as kind of a moderate. And a lot of people think this is one of the ones that could go down. I mean Dole is in real trouble in North Carolina.
COLLINS: Let's move on to Minnesota. What is going on in Minnesota? Norm Coleman versus Al Franken.
KADY: Well, Minnesota is unique. It's peculiar. And let's not forget there's a third candidate in there, Dean Barkley (ph) who is polling at something like 16 to 18 percent, so none of these candidates are even cracking 40 percent. Coleman is ahead in the latest poll I saw, but it's all within the margin of error.
Coleman might pull this out because I don't know if Minnesotans are quite ready for Al Franken to be the representative in the U.S. Senate. That's a close one. Coleman's got a shot there.
COLLINS: All right, so we're watching Minnesota, obviously. And the last one, Georgia right here where we are, Saxby Chambliss versus Jim Martin, your thoughts on that.
KADY: This is the most surprising one that has gotten close.
COLLINS: Yeah.
KADY: We didn't really start paying attention to this until recently. But it looks like Jim Martin, the Democratic candidate who is -- was in the Georgia State Assembly has gotten within two points. This is supposed to be a pretty easy ride, but there's been a big surge in registration for Democrats in Georgia.
This is the Obama factor, sort of trickling down to a Senate race that was never supposed to be in play and now there is. I mean there was a huge surge in African American voters in Georgia during the primary process, so...
COLLINS: Yeah.
KADY: ... that's put Jim Martin a long shot Democrat, suddenly at least making Saxby Chambliss have to work down this final stretch.
COLLINS: Yeah, it is going to be a fascinating, a very exciting election day in all of these areas. Quickly, before we let you go, turning to the House, you see the current breakdown on the screen now; 235 Democrats; 199 Republicans; one seat vacant. What are we going to be looking for here in the House?
KADY: Well, there are 30 retiring Republicans. These are open seats. Even Republicans from National -- Republican National Committee are talking about losing 25 to 30 seats. I hate to make projections here, but you know Democrats could wake up on Wednesday, November 5th with anywhere between 250 and 265 potentially Democratic seats.
I mean it's looking like a really rough day for Republicans and there might be just a couple of vulnerable Democrats to lose, but it could be a clean sweep by the Democrats in the House.
COLLINS: Martin Kady, congressional correspondent for Politico.com.
KADY: Thank you. COLLINS: Thank you, Martin.
KADY: Thanks.
COLLINS: A new Nazi killing spree -- excuse me -- the targets, dozens of African-Americans, the ultimate goal, killing Barack Obama. Federal investigators say that was the twisted fantasy of two young men now in custody. The 20-year-old Tennessee man and his 18-year-old pal from Arkansas are being held without bond.
Police say they planned to wear tuxedos while they killed and beheaded dozens of people. The Secret Service says there was not any formal assassination plan and would not comment on how credible the threat really was. Obama's campaign has had no immediate comment on the arrests.
Refusing to go, one woman facing off against the bank, they want to take her home, but she's not leaving quietly.
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COLLINS: What's on the ballot? There's more than just a presidential race to watch, of course. This week, we are looking at some of the state and local issues of interest. Our own top 10, in fact, today, we begin with number eight. Arizona's proposition 201, the homeowner's Bill of Rights. It forces home sellers to give a 10- year warranty on new homes. The measure allows homeowners to be compensated for construction problems.
The initiative also says model homes have to look like what's actually for sale. Number seven comes from Sacramento, California's capital looking at texting taxes. Measure O allows the city to levying new taxes on some phone services, including cell phone texting. Services like directory assistance and caller I.D. would also be taxed for the first time. There would also be a tax on Internet phone connections.
City officials say the taxes will bring in about $12 million a year in revenue they really need. Our list continues tomorrow with a critical issue for animal lovers. Plus we'll recap our entire list at the end of the week.
A drastic move by one homeowner facing foreclosure, she chained herself to the front of her San Diego area home ignoring eviction orders. Today is the deadline for June Reyno to get out.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JUNE REYNO, FACING FORECLOSURE: We are not just going to turn our keys over, not without a fight, and we are not -- I am not going to walk away from this home quietly.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Reyno knows a little something about troubles in the housing market. She runs a business helping others avoid foreclosure. She drove more than 1,000 miles for what she thought was the last chance to save her troubled son. A Georgia mother dropped the 12- year-old boy off at a Nebraska hospital under that state's safe haven law on Saturday. Tysheema Brown (ph) says her son was on probation and headed for jail. She felt Nebraska authorities would do a better job helping the boy than Georgia officials.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TYSHEEMA BROWN, MOTHER: I had to do something that was so hard of a parent that could even possibly do think about getting in a car with her child and taking him hours and hours away to another state and leaving him just so I can get some help for my child.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Brown's plan backfired. She told our affiliate WSB (ph), a Georgia Family Services worker will go to Nebraska today, pick up the boy, and bring him back to Georgia. He will be placed in foster care.
A family's walk on an Oregon beach turned into a struggle for survival after a wave swept them into the ocean. A 6-year-old boy died. His uncle is missing and presumed drowned.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ASST. CHIEF DAVID MACMANIMAN, CHARLESTON FIRE DISTRICT: If you're down in there close, anything's possible with the ocean. We had a couple of our folks that were kind of upset. You know, I hate calls when kids get hurt. So, you know, it's just, you know, it's upsetting. You know and just you don't feel very good after a call like that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Two other family members taken out by the wave were able to make it back to shore safely.
Rob Marciano in the Severe Weather Center now with more of a picture of what's happening across the U.S.--hey, Rob.
ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yeah, you know those waves, not a huge storm out there, but those sneaker waves just come at you pretty good, especially...
COLLINS: Out of nowhere.
MARCIANO: ... across the coastline of Oregon. We'll take you in there real quick, give you the lay of the land. Very rocky coastline, actually this area of Coos Bay (ph), the beach where this incident probably happened, obviously away from the town, but it's very near, very duny (ph) area, (INAUDIBLE) great golf courses and -- but most of the shoreline is pretty rocky and those waves can just sneak up on you. All right, West Coast, by the way, you're clear and pretty warm, East Coast, you're wet and nasty and cold and snowy and the whole thing. I mean we got winds gusting over 30 miles an hour, will gust to 50 at times. This low will intensify throughout the day. It's got some white on the radar scope.
That means snow and as the map said, 18 to 16 inches potentially. That's pretty hairy. As you know, the game was halted last night in Philadelphia. I'm not sure they're going to get it in tonight. The red arrows (ph) almost right over Philly, it will slowly drift off towards the north and east, intensify (INAUDIBLE) really throwing some moisture and some wind and some waves.
And keep temperatures in the 30s and 40s here throughout the day today and then upstate New York (INAUDIBLE) especially towards Utica Rome/Finger Lakes (ph) region, you will see snow throughout the day, some of which will pile up and especially near the lakes and then (INAUDIBLE) lakes and a little bit of enhancement there with snows in the Adirondacks (ph) potentially well over a foot.
Let's talk traffic delays. We've got them over an hour in some spots, Newark, two hours, so this is all weather related, going to be a nightmare across the northeast for airports and concern where it's not raining or snowing, we have temperatures that are still right around freezing, so freezing all the way down into Florida -- quick check on Tampa.
Well, you're seeing the coldest air of the season there and you certainly want your Rays to bring it out tonight. But you've got sunshine; the temps will remain in the mid 60's. Not a bad beach day, I'm not sure I'd be swimming, still kind of chilly, but it looks awfully nice -- Heidi.
COLLINS: Yeah, all right, Rob, thank you.
MARCIANO: You bet.
COLLINS: We'll check back later with you.
Abandoned by their families, many wind up on the streets. The fortunate ones are admitted to the only facility of its kind in Iraq.
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COLLINS: A successful operation in Syria, it's an attack the Syrian government calls an act of terrorism. An American official tells CNN the cross border attack into Syria netted a known armed smuggler, a smuggler who is suspected of having ties to al Qaeda is also accused of funneling foreign fighters into Iraq. Syria's government says seven civilians were killed. The U.S. military has not confirmed the attack ever happened.
In war-torn Iraq, many of those hurting are not suffering wounds of the body, but of the mind. CNN's Phil Black looks at their plight.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It is a stark existence, but these mental health patients are better off than many others. Baghdad's Al Rashid (ph) hospital is the only facility for Iraqis suffering severe psychiatric disorders.
(on camera): For the patients here, if this facility didn't exist, what would their lives be like?
DR. RAGHAD ISSA SARSAM, PSYCHIATRIST: In this case you would see them wandering in the streets, begging.
BLACK (voice-over): There are more than a thousand patients living in Al Rashid (ph), men and women most suffering chronic schizophrenia.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
BLACK: This man is grateful for the care he receives.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
BLACK: My life is good here, he says. They offer us good food. They change the sheets every day. They change my clothes. But others tell me they often wish for death.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)
BLACK: My life is miserable, this man says. It is dirty. The food is bad. Life is very bad here. This woman is a former English teacher. She hasn't seen her husband in the three years she's been living at the hospital.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I want to go to my family. I want to go to my house.
BLACK: Doctors say her story is a common one.
SARSAM: So they've already been rejected by their families because of their chronic illness. They don't want them anymore, even if they become a bit better.
BLACK: For this recovering nation with so many problems, caring for the mentally ill just hasn't been a priority. And Saddam Hussein gave it little attention in his day. But the people working with these patients hope that will now change because the country's current health minister is a psychiatrist.
(on camera): The doctors here believe the patients here represent only a very small fraction of Iraq's mentally ill population. And they say because of the nationwide trauma suffered during and since the war, that population is only going to get bigger.
(voice-over): War has caused other problems here, too. Early this year the hospital's former director was arrested, accused of supplying female patients to al Qaeda to be used as suicide bombers. He was later released. But the hospital says U.S. forces still conduct regular raids because they suspect insurgents are hiding here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: They raided the hospital many times but they didn't find anything.
BLACK: When Saddam's regime fell, the hospital was looted and severely damaged by fire. It has recovered largely with the help of international aid organizations. The doctors here say they're doing their best to help some of Iraq's most vulnerable people. But they know it's not enough.
Phil Black, CNN, Baghdad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COLLINS: Home video catches what looks like an incumbent in attack mode.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She just picked up another one. She just picked up another one. She's replacing it. Yes, I'm videoing it right now. She's taking it. She already...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Candidate's wife gets the picture. We'll tell you what the incumbents got.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: ... taking the signs.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Earlier we asked undecided voters to drop us a line. We wanted to know what's going to make up your mind. So here is what you told us.
"I am in the medical field and am undecided. I'm afraid with Senator Obama it would be hard to obtain appointments for scans, x- rays, as well as doctor appointments. However, I feel that he is the best candidate. That's from Tuvora. Thanks for that.
Also, "my wife and I are evangelical undecided voters. If Barack Obama would change his stand on abortion and gay marriage, our decision would be very easy. We would vote for him in a minute. So would most of our Christian friends, but because of this we may be forced to vote McCain and we're not crazy about him or Palin and that's the feeling of most of our evangelical friends -- Calvin and Cella from Missouri. Thanks for that.
Here's another one, "I got a phone call from a poll taker asking me how I was going to vote. I know who my husband and I are going to vote for, but I told her I was unsure. How I vote is personal to me. This may be other opinions, too. So when CNN asks what are you waiting for, these others may know who they are voting for, but want to keep it to themselves, too. Good point -- Gloria from Missouri, appreciate that.
One week away, still undecided. What's going to make up your mind? That is the question today. If you are still one of those undecided folks, we want to know what the answer to the question is. You can always e-mail us at cnnnewsroom@cnn.com.
