Return to Transcripts main page
Campbell Brown
Final Campaign Blitz; Grandmother of Barack Obama Dies
Aired November 03, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, everybody, stunning -- before the night is over, the presidential candidates and their running mates will have blitzed through 16 different states, a lightning-flash blur of 11th-hour campaigning.
Here at the CNN election headquarters, once again, we have assembled the best political team on television to talk about all of this. Just, we should mention, though, as everyone is going all out at this phase of the game, Barack Obama endures a deep personal blow.
You just saw a photograph there. About 8:00 this morning, he learned that the woman who helped raise him, his grandmother, 86-year- old Madelyn Dunham, had died of cancer last night. Obama left the campaign trail a week ago to see her in Hawaii. About an hour ago, Obama stood in the rain in Charlotte, North Carolina, and with what looked like tears in his eyes, called tonight, in his words, a bittersweet moment.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Some of you heard that my grandmother, who helped raise me, passed away early this morning.
And, look, she has gone home.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: And she died peacefully in her sleep with my sister at her side. And, so, there's great joy, as well as tears. I'm not going to talk about it too long, because it's hard, a little, to talk about.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Just moments ago now, at a campaign stop in Roswell, New Mexico, Senator McCain talked about Senator Obama's loss.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Before I go much further, I received the news that Senator Barack Obama's grandmother passed away today. He is in our thoughts and our prayers. And we -- we mourn his loss, and we are with him and his family today.
(END VIDEO CLIP) BROWN: It has been a gut-wrenching end to what has been a long and emotionally draining campaign. Tonight, Obama told the crowd in Charlotte that he has a -- quote -- "righteous wind" at his back, but he also delivered a warning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: North Carolina, don't believe for a second that this election is over. Don't think for a minute that power will concede without a fight.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Tonight, though, we should mention John McCain is not conceding anything, even though our election eve poll of polls right now has the numbers at Obama seven points ahead, 51-44 percent. No way is John McCain giving up. He's making stops in seven -- that is right -- seven states today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: And we have got to move. We have been closing the gap. Don't give up hope. We never give up.
Now, let's go win this election and get this country going again.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: McCain has two more stops. He's wrapping up a rally in Roswell, New Mexico, will be wrapping it up at any moment. We're going to take you there live and listen to a little bit of what McCain has to say as soon as that happens.
But we do want to check in with our correspondents now.
We have Jessica Yellin, who is traveling with Obama, and Dana Bash standing by with the very latest.
Let me start with you, Jessica.
Obama well ahead in the polls at this stage of the game. We are one day before the election, and he gets this terribly sad news about his grandmother that he talked about just a few moments ago, as we heard him, calling this a bittersweet moment for him.
JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It really is, Campbell. It's remarkable that this would happen the day before the election. You could see him wipe a tear away, actually several tears, as he went on in the speech.
And then he gave his standard remarks, but he was clearly very deeply emotional throughout it. It was actually the second time we heard him talk about his grandmother today. The first was when he was doing a voter call, trying to get people to the polls.
You heard him say to somebody on the other side of the phone, he said, "I understand what it is to need home health care, because our family has just gone through this with my grandmother."
And, so, clearly this became -- was a theme on his mind. We're told she died at her home in Hawaii overnight after struggling with cancer. He found out about it 8:00 a.m. Florida time, where he was this morning. He went on to hold his first rally three hours later. And it wasn't until that phone call around 5:00 p.m. that I mentioned that he first publicly talked about her, and then at this rally.
So, he has another one tonight, a final rally in Virginia. And he will be spending the night at home with his family here in Chicago tonight -- Campbell.
BROWN: And, Jessica, let's talk about the focus here on this final stage. It's all about get out the vote. What's the campaign doing to ensure that supporters are turning out tomorrow?
YELLIN: Well, they say they have over a million volunteers around the nation who will be doing everything from knocking on doors to making calls, and even driving people to the polls.
And they say they have a very sophisticated system of tracking both those people who have already early voted, so they know they don't need to talk to them, also finding out who's voted in the morning, keeping track of them, and focusing in on the people that they know will vote for them or they think they can get out and really pay attention.
They have an incredibly sophisticated microtargeting system to allow them to pinpoint who they think will really be Obama supporters. That's in addition to more than three million door knocks they did over this weekend in battleground states. They think they have a very effective get-out-the-vote operation tomorrow, but we will have to see -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right, let me turn now -- Jessica, thanks.
Let me turn now to Dana Bash, who's with the McCain campaign.
And, Dana, obviously, they're looking at the same polls we are, John McCain facing a pretty uphill climb right now. Give us a sense, though. They have been, on the public face of it, very optimistic about tomorrow. What is the mood, though, behind the scenes within the campaign?
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You know, I think the best way to describe it, Campbell, is matter of fact.
I have been talking to folks at the highest level of the campaign all day long. And they're very eager to share whatever latest poll they have found that shows that the race is tightening, but they know that it's tough. They absolutely know that it is a challenge. I think, in large part, you're sort of sensing this weird -- I think it's fair to say weird sense of calm from inside the campaign, maybe because of the fact that John McCain himself, on the campaign trail, in really observing him and like basically following him for the past couple of days, it has really been remarkable the way he's found energy in adversity.
It really is his trademark, but I think another part of the reason why there is calm inside the campaign, Campbell, is the fact that they can see the finish line. And, after two grueling years, it's almost over, no matter how this works out on Tuesday.
BROWN: And, as I said, Dana, when talking to Jessica, it's all about get-out-the-vote at this stage of the game. Talk to us. We know what the Obama organization is like. Republicans have conceded it is quite an organization they have put together. How does McCain compete?
BASH: Yes. You're exactly right about that.
I just hung up the phone with a senior McCain adviser about this, Campbell, who said: Look, I'm not going to lie. Barack Obama has so much money, has so much paid staff, has so many volunteers. This adviser said, would I rather be in that position right now? Absolutely.
But what this adviser insisted is that they are -- are trying to compete. He said that, on Saturday, they made three million phone calls and door knocks. On Sunday, they did about the same. They think that they will end up with about the same number today, and they say that they are actually right now on par to maybe even double what they did in 2004.
You know, that was sort of the vaunted get-out-the-vote machine that George Bush and the Republican National Committee had four years ago. They say they're actually doing better than that. They obviously -- you heard Jessica talking about microtargeting and really sophisticated ways to track people who they say are possible.
They have the same technology. The problem for them is that the Democrats have that technology now, too, and at this point, it looks like they may be doing a little better in using it -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right, Dana Bash for us, and Jessica Yellin earlier with the Obama campaign, thanks to you both.
A lot more to talk about, John King at the magic map, breaking it all down for us, what tomorrow really looks like in terms of the electoral numbers. That is what it's all about at this stage of the game.
Stay with us -- a lot more ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Tonight, every single person in both John McCain's campaign and Barack Obama's campaign is focused on one number. That's 270, 270 to win, the number of electoral votes needed to get to the White House. How does it look right now? Who is most likely to get there?
John King is over at the magic map for us tonight to break it down.
And, John, you have been doing this for us every night, really, 90 electoral votes, I believe, right now in the tossup category. Walk us through where things stand right now.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And we will start with those tossups, Campbell.
But, before we do, who has the advantage going into the voting tomorrow? We have been talking about this for a while. Barack Obama, we have now projecting to win 291 electoral votes. It only takes 270 to win. So, Senator McCain has a very steep challenge.
And let's start. Then we will talk, go on into the conversation. But let's start with those tossup states. All of these tossup states, they're the gold ones. If you see a red state, either shade, that means it's McCain. If you see a blue shade, either, light blue, lean Obama, dark blue, safe Obama. All the yellow or gold are your tossup states.
And they are huge electoral prizes, and they are all Bush states four years ago, 27 in Florida. We will leave it yellow for now -- 15 in North Carolina, 20 in Ohio, 11 over here in Indiana, 11 more in Missouri, and then a combined six if you come out to North Dakota and Montana.
Campbell, let's, just for the sake of argument, give every one of our tossup to John McCain. And, if we did that, if he ran the board of the tossup states, he would be back competitive, but that is not enough, Campbell. He can win all the tossup states. John McCain would need to do something else beyond that.
BROWN: And, John, just looking at the map, think back four years ago, so different from 2004, in terms of what they are fighting for and where the battle lines are drawn. Do a little comparison, if you will, between now and 2004.
KING: It's quite remarkable, Campbell.
And begin with where we are now. Again, look at the blue states here. Pennsylvania has been blue for some time. But, look, we have Virginia leaning blue. Remember that. We have Iowa safe Obama. Look at that. And then look out here in the Southwest, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. Remember all that blue.
I'm going to go back in time now to 2004. This is the Democratic primaries. This is the 2004 general election. Look, Nevada, a Bush state, Colorado, a Bush state, New Mexico, a Bush state out there, Iowa, a Bush state, Virginia, a solid Bush state, 54-45.
So, when you look at the map this time, you can say, going into the election, no matter how it turns out tomorrow, that Barack Obama did what he said he was going to do. He stretched the map. He has made the Democrats competitive in states, Campbell, where they have not been competitive, sometimes in a generation. BROWN: And, John, quickly, let's just talk about Pennsylvania. It could all come down to that one state. McCain has made it must- win. Obama has fiercely defending it. What do we need to know about the race there?
KING: One, McCain needs to win it. That's the thing he needs to know most of all. Number two, look at the state.
This is 2004. George W. Bush loses, a narrow loss. Bush tried so hard here. You remember this, Campbell, 51-48, John Kerry won the state. How did he win it? Remember this area down here. This is the Philadelphia -- a third of the vote comes from right here, Philadelphia, city and the suburbs.
Remember this blue. I'm going to step across the camera here and I'm going to take you back in time. The last time a Republican won this state, George H.W. Bush in 1988. And look at that. Remember this again, '04, blue down here in suburbs, 1988, all red.
And what's happened is, increasingly, the Philadelphia suburbs, Bucks County, Montgomery County, and Chester County, are becoming more and more Democratic. In fact, Chester still has more registered Republicans Campbell, but, in Montgomery County, four years ago, more Republicans, now more Democrats. Same with Bucks County, four years ago, more Republicans, now more Democrats.
So, John McCain needs to improve. If he is going to get Pennsylvania, he needs to do better than George W. Bush did four years ago right down here in the Philadelphia suburbs.
BROWN: And the crucial thing we're going to watching, probably keeping an eye on all tomorrow night.
John King for us -- John, thanks.
And, as I mentioned, we're down now to the final hours of this historic campaign at CNN. We have got all the minute-by-minute scoop you want any time you want it. Go to CNN.com/map, where you can track pretty much every major development here, every major poll, the electoral map state of play, all of it. It's all there, a ton of information, including our top picks for tomorrow's races that we're going to be following tomorrow night. Check those out as well at CNN.com/campbellsraces. You can see my picks.
Coming up, what if the whole election is decided by one key state? As John just mentioned, Pennsylvania could be ground zero tomorrow. Can John McCain win an upset victory there? We will talk about that.
And, later, our viewer's guide to the election, must-see TV. Find out when you absolutely must be watching tomorrow night and what to look for.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) OBAMA: We can't afford to slow down or sit back or let up, not one minute, not one hour, not one second.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
MCCAIN: Just one day left until we take America in a new direction. We need to win in Pennsylvania. And, tomorrow, with your help, we will win.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Just under 24 hours, both candidates fighting hard.
First tonight, though, cutting through the bull. Tonight, on the eve of the election, the campaigns are relying on their lucky charms. That was the gist of a story on Politico.com earlier today. Did you know that there are 20 guys in Obama's Ohio office who haven't shaved since Obama pulled ahead of McCain in that state, or that there's a McCain aide who must wear only his pair of socks that have the palm trees on them?
McCain lover Senator Joe Lieberman is sporting his lucky sweater right now, while an Obama press secretary is putting on her lucky cowboy boots.
So far, it is reported, thank goodness, no one has outdone James Carville in his decision to wear the same pair of underwear for a period of time while Bill Clinton's poll numbers started going up.
And the candidates themselves are hardly immune to superstition. Obama is carrying in his pocket at this moment an array of trinkets given to him by voters that include a lucky poker chip, an American eagle pin, and a tiny statue of the revered Hindu Monkey King.
McCain, the fighter pilot, has a similar stash, a lucky penny, a lucky feather, a lucky compass.
So, what does all of this tell us? That campaign aides and the candidates are reaching for ways to control something they know is no longer in their hands. As of right now, this whole thing is entirely up to you.
My guess is, there's little John McCain or Barack Obama can say between now and tomorrow morning that will change your mind. They both know that. So, while they fill their pockets with those lucky charms, their fate, our fate, the fate of the country is in your hands now.
Whatever the weather, whatever the hassle, go get in line tomorrow. No matter who wins, this is an election we will all want to say we were a part of.
And, with that, let's turn to some of our best political observers. We have got them here, CNN senior political analyst Gloria Borger, Republican consultant and McCain supporter Alex Castellanos, CNN political analyst and Obama supporter, Roland Martin with the -- what's -- the Miss America wave?
(CROSSTALK)
(LAUGHTER)
ALEX CASTELLANOS, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Mayday Parade.
BROWN: Senior analyst Jeffrey Toobin.
Welcome, everybody.
Gloria, let me start with you. We were talking about Pennsylvania a moment ago with John King, who was walking us through the polls.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Right.
BROWN: They have tightened a little bit. It has narrowed, but Obama has still not dipped below 51 percent. Does John McCain -- he has to win Pennsylvania, we should say. Does he have a shot there, do you think, honestly?
BORGER: I think, of all the battleground states that are in play, I think Pennsylvania is probably the least likely for John McCain.
This is a state that John Kerry won 51-48 percent. Clearly, McCain is going to win in those rural areas, the white, bitter rural areas that cling to their guns and religion, as Obama says.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Or the Murtha bigot voters?
BORGER: Right. Well, I wouldn't say that.
(LAUGHTER)
BORGER: But, in order to compensate for that, Obama will win very strongly in the suburbs around Philadelphia, probably, and that more than compensates for it. Kerry won in those suburban areas by 53 percent. Obama is on target to do better than that.
BROWN: You have seen the math, Jeffrey. Do you think there's a reason to be hopeful for John McCain right now?
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Not much.
Basically, the polls have to be wrong. It's as simple as that. And the polls have generally been right so far all throughout the primaries. And I think it's a long shot.
I do think that it was smart of McCain and Palin to spend so much time in Pennsylvania, because I don't think they had better options. I think this was the right place to invest all that time and all that money, but, based on the way the polls look, it just doesn't look like there are enough votes for them.
BROWN: OK.
So, Alex, you're a Republican. And look at the big picture here. What gives you hope about tomorrow and what are you most worried about?
CASTELLANOS: What gives you hope is that the president's job is the daddy bear job. He's the guy who is not supposed to share the wealth. He's supposed to lock the door. It's the father figure of the political family.
Congress is supposed to share the wealth and redistribute. So, it's -- Democrats have been more successful with House, Senate. It's been tough to get a Democrat over 50 percent for the presidential race. So, still, tomorrow, when people go to vote, Democrats have an uphill climb to elect a Democratic president. It just doesn't happen much. They're out of synch.
Sixty percent of Americans say Obama is left of center. Only 20 percent say they are left of center. And that's Obama's challenge and McCain's hope tomorrow.
MARTIN: The only problem, when momma and daddy don't have a job, you make a much different decision. And I think that is what you're seeing.
I think what John McCain is, frankly, hoping, he's hoping these voters go into the voting booth, and, with all different questions -- you see what's happening in Pennsylvania with the Republican Party. John McCain has said nothing about the Jeremiah Wright ads that they're running all around the country. There's a reason for that.
I think that they're just simply hoping that these folks walk into the voting booth and say, you know what? I'm not going to vote for Obama, because, if you look at Pennsylvania, look, they have got a better shot, frankly, of winning Ohio than Pennsylvania. They have made no effort to say, let's take Ohio.
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: They need both. That's the problem.
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: Right.
But all of...
CASTELLANOS: McCain did say he was not going to run those ads.
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: No, no, follow me. (CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: I'm following you, but McCain was very clear that he did not think that was good idea.
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: When the North Carolina Republican Party ran the ads, he condemned them. He hasn't said a word about Pennsylvania. But, again, I think that's what he's banking on.
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: That's what he's banking on.
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: That's what I'm saying.
CASTELLANOS: Oh, no. Come on.
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: He hopes people walk into the voting booth and don't vote for Obama...
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Did anybody honestly think a Reverend Wright ad at this stage of the game is going to be game-changer?
MARTIN: He's hoping for anything.
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: Well, sure, he's hoping for anything. But I don't think it made much of a difference. As I understand it, it wasn't a very big ad buy. At this point, there's so much noise out there that it's hard for me to imagine that...
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: No, it was on CNN.
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: Even if it's on CNN, I know all the intelligent people are watching CNN, but, even then, I don't think it's going to make that much of a difference.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: So, what is the surprise? What is the thing we have not put our finger on?
(LAUGHTER)
TOOBIN: That's why it's a surprise. We don't know.
(CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: Louisiana.
BORGER: Campbell, we have got a bunch of undecided voters out there. And they could tilt, largely towards John McCain. Maybe these are the voters that you're talking about. I don't know.
BROWN: But do they really exist? Do you really believe those numbers?
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: They're there in the polls, but do you think that people many are undecided?
(CROSSTALK)
BORGER: Yes, I think they do exist.
But, on the other hand, you have those undecided voters, and that's more than balanced by turnout. And, so, I think that, even the number of undecided voters, if they all went to John McCain, if they all went to John McCain, you could win the election.
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: You think that John Kennedy is going to pull it out?
CASTELLANOS: I think there's a shot there. I think it's a right-track state. It's a state the economy is actually doing well, unlike the rest of America. They have got government money and oil money. They have got a Republican governor who is doing well. That could be a little different.
BORGER: And the guy's name is John Kennedy.
TOOBIN: John Kennedy.
CASTELLANOS: There you go.
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: He used to be a Democrat.
BROWN: Guys, stick around. We're going to take another quick break. We're going to be back with a lot more of our panel when we come back.
We will talk more about Pennsylvania as well and more about those undecided voters.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: There are still apparently some very choosy people out there tonight who are still trying to make up their minds. What is up with those 11th-hour undecideds? Do they really exist?
Our Randi Kaye went looking for answers in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. And she's joining us right now from Philadelphia.
So, Randi, did you actually find real undecided voters out there?
RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Campbell. They were very few and far between, but we did actually find undecideds on the streets here of Philadelphia.
And they told me that they're getting lots of pressure from family and friends to vote the way that they did. We actually spoke with one registered Republican has really taken this to an extreme. He has sequestered himself. He's treating himself like he's a juror in deliberations. He's not watching any television. He's not reading any newspapers.
He just wants to make up his mind. We also spoke with a registered independent who is concerned that Barack Obama will increase government spending, but he also is not a big fan of Sarah Palin. So, he's very torn about what to do here.
But really the common theme among the undecideds is that they realize the importance of this election. They say it's the most important they may ever vote in, and they just want to get it right. Here's some of what we talked about today on the streets of Philadelphia.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KAYE: So, you're a registered Republican.
DREW FASH, UNDECIDED VOTER: Yes.
KAYE: Why can't you commit to John McCain at this point?
FASH: At this point -- you know, I was committed to John McCain. I was behind John McCain 100 percent. He just seems like he's falling apart, and he's lost that -- he doesn't have the confidence that I think a president of the United States should have.
KAYE: What is it about Barack Obama that you're not sold on?
STEVE MANGIOLA, UNDECIDED VOTER: I'm a little concerned about his economic policies and about spending. He's talked about a lot of programs where he sounds like he wants to spend money, like in health care and things, and...
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Apparently, we have lost Randi's live shot. We're having some technical issues here tonight, obviously. We're going to take a quick break.
When we come back, no excuses. The weather -- trust me -- the campaigns have now turned from pollsters to meteorologists to try to assess voter turnout.
Also, do you remember Florida and hanging chads? Well, we have been digging into the thousands of voting problems you have already reported to our CNN voter hot line. Ali Velshi will be here to tell us if campaign lawyers are going to be able to make hay with any of this.
And, then, later, John McCain gets his star turn on "Saturday Night Live." And, for that, he earns a coveted spot at the center of our no bias, no bull bullseye.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: More than 24.4 million Americans have already voted for president. That is the good news. The bad news, thousands of problems have been reported to our CNN voter hotline, everything from missing absentee ballots to very long lines. You have seen some of those on TV and many of the worst problems are in those critical battleground states.
So are we going to see a mess of post-election legal challenges because of all the stuff? Ali Velshi has been digging into some of the ballot blunders all day today. And, Ali, I know the phones have been ringing off the hook with our voter hotline.
ALI VELSHI, CNN SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Yes.
BROWN: Give us a sense for the kinds of things you're hearing and what's legitimate and what may not be.
VELSHI: Well, the voter hotline has been open, 1-877-GOCNN-08. We'll put that on the screen. We'll have that on our Web site. We're working with InfoVoter Technologies, and we're getting a lot of calls and more than 30,000 calls have already come in to our hotline. Of that, more than 11,000 have been registered as complaints. In other words, we've coded them and broken them down.
Now, the thing you need to look at is look at where these complaints are coming in. The darker colors are where we've had a high ratio of complaints and that's proportionate to the population. So you can see Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia. We're getting a lot of calls from those areas. This will, of course, start to develop a lot as the polls start to open in the morning, the regular polls.
Let me show you how they're breaking down. Of those 11,000 calls that we've been getting in, the vast majority of them right now are regarding registration. There are people who have not got their registration information or there's some problem with it then we got absentee ballots. Same problem, people who didn't get them and they're wondering how do they vote? They weren't going to be around to vote in the first place. How do they deal with that?
The third largest category right now is poll access, which largely translates into long lines at the polling booth. So we're going to be tracking that. We want you to call us if you have a problem with this. The voter hotline is open all the time 1-877- GOCNN-08.
We will be staffing this all night tonight, tomorrow, all through the election. I will be on the desk keeping track of those irregularities, and we've got a team of people who will be looking into it, calling the Boards of Elections or the secretary of state to find out what's going on.
BROWN: All right. Ali, we'll be checking with you, of course, throughout the night, tomorrow night as well. Ali Velshi for us tonight. Ali, thanks.
And we should mention those aren't the only challenges that voters are going to face tomorrow. Mother Nature could make things a little messy in some parts of the country. And Chad Meyers has the Election Day forecast.
Chad, weather played a huge factor in turnout in the battleground state of Ohio, I remember in 2004.
CHAD MYERS, CNN SEVERE WEATHER EXPERT: Right.
BROWN: Give us a sense for what people are going to be dealing with tomorrow.
MYERS: Well, we have two that are kind of in the toss-up category here, at least close. North Carolina and Virginia, both are going to be very wet. And while standing out in the pouring down rain pour, rain showers there for probably two or three hours, that wouldn't be much fun. And then back out to the west, although these states really aren't that much up in the air, Washington, Oregon, down to California, are going to pick up some rain and also some mountain snow.
So what does that mean? Well, most part of the country is just going to be beautiful. Absolutely phenomenal, 70s all the way up into Wisconsin. Doing anything in this area you'll be fine. It's just the eastern part right here down beneath the low country of South Carolina and then the western part of the country here. Montana and North Dakota still considered toss-ups here. A little bit of rain shower activity here, but I don't see enough to keep people at home.
There are people that are way smarter than me that try to do this stuff, and one is Dr. Gomez. He actually works at the University of Georgia. He says it takes one inch of rain or more to reduce voter turnout by just one percent. But of that one percent, 2.5 percent more are Democrats that stay home. The younger voters are less likely to go out in the rain, and the older voters get out there and do it whether it's in the rain or not. They get out there and vote. So there you go. Some of the stats there from Dr. Gomez.
BROWN: Fun facts from Chad tonight. Thanks, Chad. Appreciate it.
MYERS: Sure.
BROWN: Tonight, we are going to hear from one of the charter members of our "No Bias, No Bull Rogues Gallery."
Senator Ted Stevens campaigning for reelection tomorrow, just days after a federal grand jury found him guilty of seven counts of corruption. In Alaska, our Gary Tuchman caught up with the senator and didn't exactly get a warm welcome.
Also ahead, three things to look for tomorrow night. They are the telltale signs which can tell you how the election will end. This is our viewer's guide how to watch this thing tomorrow night.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: By the way, did you see -- did you see "Saturday Night Live"? I really believe that she and Tina Fey were separated at birth. I swear to God.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Yes. Sarah Palin there, that John McCain is talking about. And sure, Sarah Palin was pretty funny on "SNL" but John McCain had his own star turn alongside Tina Fey this weekend. And that earned "Saturday Night Live" a double spot in our "Bull's-Eye."
First, take a look at their rift. This was on the big Obama infomercial. McCain does his own on QVC, and it doesn't take long for Fey to grab the spotlight.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, FROM NBC BROADWAY VIDEO)
TINA FEY, COMEDIENNE, PLAYING SARAH PALIN: Why not do your holiday shopping with us? OK, listen up, everybody, I'm going rogue right now, so keep your voices down. Available now, we got a bunch of these t-shirts. Just try and wait until after Tuesday to wear them, OK?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: A little bit later, McCain appeared on "Weekend Update" to float a new election strategy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, FROM NBC BROADWAY VIDEO)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know how people call me the maverick?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
MCCAIN: Well -- well, I thought I might try a strategy called the reverse maverick. That's where -- that's where I do whatever anybody tells me. I don't ask questions, I just go with the flow. If that doesn't work, I go to the double maverick. That's where I go totally berserk or just freak everybody out.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Nobody has covered this election quite like "SNL," so for that they get the "Bull's-Eye" yet again.
So who is going to win tomorrow? There are three things to watch. They will tell you before anything else. In just a little bit, Tom Foreman is going to be here to tell us exactly what they are. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Tonight, plenty of congressional Republicans are wondering if they are an endangered species. Democrats drooling now at the prospect of a filibuster-proof magic 60 in the Senate. And take a look right now at the current balance of power.
In the House, Democrats have a 235-199 advantage. In the Senate, their advantage is 51-49. But Republican officials fear the party could lose 25 to 30 seats in the House, and six to nine in the Senate.
One of those vulnerable Senate seats is currently occupied by a charter member of our "No Bias, No Bull Rogues Gallery," Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska. He was convicted last week on seven federal corruption charges. Tomorrow Stevens faces a strong challenge from Democrat Mark Begich. So with all of that going on, what exactly is his beef with our own Gary Tuchman?
Gary is in Anchorage tonight, where I believe it's eight degrees and fresh snow in the ground there. Gary, what happened? Explain.
GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Ted Stevens is a tough guy. Even his opponents acknowledge he's been quite a fighter for Alaska. But now, he has to fight for his job and his freedom, and he was none too pleased when we showed up unexpectedly to talk with him.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TUCHMAN (voice-over): Ted Stevens has not done a TV interview since he was found guilty of seven felony charges, and he's still running for reelection tomorrow. This is the man he's running against, Anchorage's Democratic Mayor Mark Begich campaigning after a service at a Baptist megachurch. And just feet away from him, a campaigning Ted Stevens, who is slightly behind in the most recent Alaska/Rasmussen poll. I did talk with Mayor Begich.
MARK BEGICH (D), ALASKA SENATE CANDIDATE: I just think he's in denial and not recognizing the fact that the jury has come to a conclusion that on all seven counts he was -- he was convicted as a felon.
TUCHMAN: I introduced myself to Senator Stevens. (on camera): How angry are you about this?
SEN. TED STEVENS (R), ALASKA: Well, not that angry.
TUCHMAN: You look kind of angry.
STEVENS: No. I'm angry at you guys that you come in here while I'm trying to visit with friends I see just once or twice a year.
(CROSSTALK)
TUCHMAN: I know. But it's really not -- the taxpayers pay for your salary. We give our news.
(CROSSTALK)
STEVENS: You're not the taxpayer. Just calm down. You're not the taxpayer.
TUCHMAN: But that's why I want to get your opinion, though.
STEVENS: This is a church.
TUCHMAN (voice-over): Never mind that politicking is taking place amid the balloons and bumper stickers. This interview wasn't going to happen, at least yet.
STEVENS: My future is in God's hands. The future of Alaska, however, is in your hands.
TUCHMAN: Later the senator talked about his faith, hundreds of adoring fans at a rally, and then referred to his encounter with me.
STEVENS: That was bad. He should not have come into church to ask me questions.
TUCHMAN: But bygones became bygones, and Ted Stevens decided he would talk with us.
(on camera): Do you have any second thoughts about running for reelection?
STEVENS: No, not at all. Because I think there are so many things that are going to hurt our state if I'm not there. It's my job to save (ph).
TUCHMAN (voice-over): During the one Senate debate that was held just this past Friday, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate said --
STEVENS: I'm not going to step down. I have not been convicted.
TUCHMAN (on camera): When you said during this debate that you hadn't been convicted, did you misspeak when you said that?
STEVENS: No, I was a prosecuting attorney. I do not feel convictions happen until you finally get sentenced, because the court has a right to set aside the verdict, to grant a new trial, to do a series of things that the court can do.
TUCHMAN (voice-over): Some fellow Republicans have asked him to step down, including the two who hope to run the country.
(on camera): Do you feel John McCain and Sarah Palin have let you down?
STEVENS: Oh, no, that's the heat of battle, but that and the other people, they're commenting. They just said that to get you off their tail.
TUCHMAN (voice-over): Ted Stevens who has served as an Alaska senator for most of the state's nearly half-century history faces the possibility of five years in prison for each charge against him.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
TUCHMAN: Ted Stevens has been a senator for so long that his governor, Sarah Palin, was four years old when he took office. Now I asked him before we said goodbye to him if he was scared about the possibility of going to prison. He said to me, no, and he started chuckling, and all the people behind him started laughing too.
And I said, how come you're laughing? I mean, this is very serious. You're on your 80s. This is a scary thought. And he said, only guilty people go to prison. I am innocent -- Campbell.
BROWN: You've got to admire his defiance on some level or his delusion, I'm not quite sure which.
Gary Tuchman for us from Anchorage tonight. Gary, thanks.
Next, our viewer's guide to the election. Tom Foreman is going to give us the three things you want to watch for. They're going to tell you exactly what is going to happen tomorrow night. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: So how late are we all going to be up tomorrow night as we await the answer? We are honestly not sure if this is going to drag on into the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Some of us kind of hoping it doesn't, but there are actually some key signs early on the evening that could give us a real sense for how things are shaping up. And Tom Foreman is here with our "No Bias, No Bull" viewer's guide to election night -- Tom.
TOM FOREMAN CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, Campbell, there really are some specific things that you can look for. If you want to know which way this election is going tomorrow evening, no matter where you live, turn your eyes to the east and start watching the clock.
The first polls are going to close at about 7:00 in the evening. When those polls close in a half dozen states, there are only a few of them here, there will be some real things to be watching, some bellwethers if you want.
You can see Obama's safe states there. The dark blue, like Vermont up there. Light blue means it's leaning his way. The dark red are the safe ones for McCain.
This has been Republican territory, though. If you look at Virginia, for a long time, and that's one of the states to watch in these first closings, because in the past couple of decades, the Republicans have held it. If Obama takes this, it's going to be real coup.
Same story with Indiana. That's a toss-up state one right now. And one more thing in this first wave, you should keep an eye on Georgia because of the Senate race down there. Saxby Chambliss, a Republican, not that long ago was considered a shoo-in to win again. If he doesn't win, that could be a sign about the bigger eruptions that could face the Republicans in the overall night in the fight for Congress as the Dems and Republicans fight over that.
The next time hack you have to look at is at 7:30. That's when you're only going to have three more states come on board, but boy, are they important ones.
We've said before that all of the toss-up states have to be considered, and in this case you get North Carolina and Ohio jumping on board. We've said over and over again the Republicans have never won the White House without winning Ohio. And important to remember, John McCain has to win all of the toss-up states and then some in one permutation of how the math adds up. If he doesn't get that, he can't win.
So every time you see these yellow toss-up states come on board, look at them closely, see if McCain is doing well. That will tell you a lot.
And then at 8:00 Eastern, that's when you're going to see the grand wave. That's when all of these states come on board. This is a tremendous amount of electoral votes. A lot of discussion is going to happen around this time. We're talking about a relatively limited amount of time from when the first polls close. This will include Pennsylvania. It's going to include Florida, heavily contested states with lots and lots of electoral votes.
We'll have to see how it plays out, but the bottom line is when you look at this part of the country and this period of about two hours from when the first poll closes, we may not have results, because it may be too tight, but if we do, they may give you a real indication of what's going to happen as it plays on out. Campbell, a few things to watch that will make a big difference.
BROWN: So it could be a real early night, or it could be a real late night.
FOREMAN: It could be something that keeps us up all night long. We'll just have to see.
BROWN: All right. Tom, appreciate it. Tom Foreman, we'll see you tomorrow night.
Tonight, the tireless campaigners continue to campaign and our tireless political observers continue to observe. A final election preview from our panel of experts in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We must be prepared to act swiftly, boldly and with courage. I am an American, and I choose to fight. Don't give up hope. Be strong.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Understand at this point I have made the arguments. Now it's all about who wants it more, who believes in it more. Florida, the time for change has come.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: They both want it. Only one of them can have it. Who is it going to be?
One last time, we want to turn to the best political brains we know, Gloria Borger, Alex Castellanos, Roland Martin and Jeff Toobin.
And guys, like we've talked about everything there is to talk about in advance of this moment.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Oh, no, we haven't.
BROWN: I know, Roland, you can go on forever. But let me just ask you, I know nobody wants to really make predictions. But if you were John McCain, let me just go down the road, if you're John McCain and you're Barack Obama, and you can wave your magic wand and change or fix one thing at this stage of the game, Gloria, what do you think it would be?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: About your campaign or the world? The world?
BROWN: Let's just say your campaign at this stage.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: I'll go first.
BROWN: Yes. Go, Jeffrey.
TOOBIN: If I was John McCain, I would make George Bush a lot more popular. That's what I would do overnight to make him win the election.
BORGER: And if I were John McCain, I'd make myself a lot younger too.
MARTIN: If I was John -- if I was John McCain, I'd make California Republican. He needs 55 delegates bad.
ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Oh, gosh, you know, justice (ph) here?
BROWN: Do you agree with Jeff, though? Did it really come down to Bush? Has it come down to Bush, the fact that McCain is where he is in the polls at this moment?
CASTELLANOS: When this election is done, if McCain does not win -- God forbid, but if McCain does not win, we're all going to look back and there can be a lot of criticism of Senator McCain himself. He's a candidate of his campaign.
You know, actually they have not done a bad job in a lot of ways to stay as close as they did. However, look at the Republican brand that they had to run with this year, a broken brand, and in a way, I think this was Karl Rove's third presidential election. He won two, but he also built the Republican Party that is running on the ballot now that McCain can't overcome. So the only man --
BROWN: Because it's not just John McCain. This is all across.
CASTELLANOS: The only man -- if McCain loses, the only man who's really defeated John McCain twice will be Karl Rove.
BORGER: But you know, I hate to disagree with my co-pundit here, but --
MARTIN: But do it, go right ahead.
BORGER: No, no. I think John McCain was not the Republican brand. That was his appeal...
MARTIN: Right.
BORGER: ... which was he was the independent, he was the maverick. This campaign turned him into the Republican brand, his choice of Sarah Palin.
CASTELLANOS: But that's not -- but look, you can't run as a Republican if the best campaign you have is not to be on your own team. That does not work.
BORGER: Well --
CASTELLANOS: The team was broken. That's what he had to swim upstream again.
BORGER: But look at the changing electorate, the number of independent voters?
MARTIN: And, Campbell, and this is I think you know going forward will be one of the fundamental problems is the part he has to face and that is the world is changing. The electorate is changing.
They have run moderates completely out of this party. And so the right wants to try to hold on to it, and if you don't appeal to these moderate voters, the kind of candidate John McCain is, you're not going to win future elections. You can't just piece (ph) it right in his own way.
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: I think the political scientists have it right here, that this was a year that if the candidate was Hillary Clinton, if it was Barack Obama, if it was Mitt Romney, it didn't matter. It was a democratic year, and that's really -- that the economy and the war in Iraq, and all that added up to just an impossible situation.
CASTELLANOS: One thing McCain could have done differently, John McCain created a great narrative about John McCain. His story.
Barack Obama created a great narrative about the country and where this country should go and change. Well, that's what a campaign is. A campaign is not about candidates. It's about where a country should go when you're running for president. McCain needed a narrative about the country not just himself.
MARTIN: So he put him first, and not country first.
CASTELLANOS: Country first should have been about the country. It's not for all Americans to sniff up and take this country --
MARTIN: Not his POW story, everything else.
CASTELLANOS: It should be more than that.
BORGER: I think when we look back on the McCain campaign and we look back on the Obama campaign, I'm going to say the Obama campaign was completely strategic with a message, and the McCain campaign went from one 12-hour news cycle lurching to another 12-hour news cycle and had no narrative.
TOOBIN: The Obama campaign had so much to work with. They had a country that hated the incumbent president who happen to be a Republican.
BORGER: But John McCain didn't much like George W. Bush either.
TOOBIN: But I think Alex is right. I don't think if you're a Republican you can run against the Republican Party.
BROWN: OK, guys.
MARTIN: The election hasn't been held yet.
BROWN: Absolutely right.
MARTIN: So, I mean, we sound like we're burying John McCain.
BROWN: Let's end on -- let's end on, give me your favorite moment of this campaign. Good moment. It could be good, bad, defining, however you want. MARTIN: Remember a moment, I think pure and simple, Obama winning Iowa.
TOOBIN: Oh, man, you stole my moment.
(LAUGHTER)
MARTIN: OK, fine. You have that one. His race speech. Go ahead, Jeff.
BORGER: I think Obama's speech on race.
BROWN: Yes. Yes, that was a pretty --
CASTELLANOS: There's so many memorable moments, things you'll never forget about this race. John Edwards and "The National Enquirer."
MARTIN: Thanks, Alex.
CASTELLANOS: No, no. But the most remarkable moment for me was Hillary Clinton's concession speech. I never thought I'd live this long.
BROWN: All right, guys. Hey, are you going to miss each other? Tell me, one more night.
MARTIN: We're not going anywhere.
BROWN: All right. All right. Get some rest. It is going to be a long night after tomorrow night.
That is it for us. "LARRY KING LIVE" starts right now.
