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American Morning
Race to Make History: Candidates Rally Supporters; Obama's Closing Argument in Key Swing States; Shock Jocks Prank Palin; Long Lines Confront Early Voters at the Polls
Aired November 03, 2008 - 07:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Everybody's got a smile on their face. You start -- you start thinking that maybe we might be able to win an election on November 4th.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: The candidates are making the most of this last day out on the trail. John McCain hitting seven states nearly coast to coast. He's at red, blue and tossup states with the campaign trail ending back home in Arizona.
Meanwhile, Barack Obama is in the trio of battleground states today. North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, all states that went Republican in the last two elections.
CHETRY: All right. Well, Florida is also where we find John McCain this morning. Our latest poll of polls there gives Barack Obama a four-point lead, 49 to 45 percent. Six percent still undecided.
Now McCain was up late last night with supporters in Miami and with the promise of taking the country in a new direction.
Ed Henry is with the McCain camp. He is live in Tampa for us this morning. No rest for the weary, Ed.
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That's right. Good morning, Kiran.
The fact is there's one last mad dash for John McCain and his running mate today. His aides say they realize that he's down right now, that it's an uphill climb but they insist they can still do this.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY (voice-over): John McCain trying to close strong by deploying a tactic he never uses, a late night rally, midnight in Miami.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: America faces a big choice and there's just one day left. Pundits have written us off just like they've done before, and my opponent is measuring the drapes in the White House.
(AUDIENCE BOOING) They may not know it, but the Mac is back!
HENRY: McCain and running mate Sarah Palin are hitting a total of at least a dozen contested states in a mad dash across the country on the final full day of barnstorming.
MCCAIN: We have a plan --
HENRY: The problem is the ticket is spending most of its time defending states carried by President Bush in 2004 such as Virginia, where Democrats are bullish about winning for the first time in 44 years.
BRIAN MORAN (D), VIRGINIA DELEGATE: Barack Obama's support is in the small towns, big cities, farming communities as well as subdivisions, in the excerpt. So I'm feeling more and more confident that we will turn Virginia blue.
HENRY: So the most critical piece of McCain's final strategy is to offset potential losses in Republican states by flipping a monster Democratic battleground, Pennsylvania, and its 21 electoral votes. That's why he campaigned there Saturday and Sunday where he's charging Barack Obama's tax policies will make the economy worse.
MCCAIN: Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth, I'm running to create more wealth. Senator Obama is running to punish the successful, I'm running to make everyone successful.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HENRY: And this long day on the trail will end with another midnight rally for John McCain. This one in his home state of Arizona. It was originally just supposed to be a homecoming. Now, it may actually be a get out the vote rally as well, if the polls have tightened even in his home state, Kiran.
CHETRY: All right. Can't take anything for granted this time around for sure. Ed Henry, thanks.
HENRY: All right.
ROBERTS: Well, we're back at the magic wall this morning. We're going do some calculations here and show you how John McCain or Barack Obama can win the election.
First of all, what we want to do is we want to focus in on Florida because we talk about a key voting bloc, Hispanic voters. This is where the Cuban vote has been centered in south Florida around the Miami area. It accounted for 66 percent of the Hispanic vote in Florida in the 2004 election. But now because of changing demographics, it's really down to about 34 percent now.
What's the reason for that? Well, we want to move down a little bit here and go into this critical I-4 corridor between Tampa and Daytona Beach. That's where a lot of new Hispanic immigrants have settled. Those Hispanic immigrants for a large part are from right here in Puerto Rico, and Puerto Rican Hispanics tend to trend Democratic.
So whereas we have the Cubans in south Florida, we have a lot of Puerto Ricans and other Hispanic immigrants up here in that I-4 corridor tending to trend Democratic. So the demographic breakdown of the state is changing and is changing quite significantly as well. So that could help out Barack Obama when he tries to go into that state and pick up the 27 electoral votes.
Now we want to play a little game here. What I've done is I've basically taken all of the states that are within 10 points here, put them in the tossup category to show you a little bit about what Governor Romney was talking about.
If John McCain wins Ohio, if he puts Indiana back in the win column, if he hangs onto Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri, all states that went Republican in 2004, he's getting closer there to where Barack Obama is.
We've taken a couple of states away from Barack Obama in the lean category. If John McCain wins North Dakota, if he puts Montana in the win column, he's getting very close again. All he would need to do is run Colorado and Nevada, and he would be over the top there.
But here's the thing that the governor was talking about. Really keys in here on Pennsylvania. If he could, by chance, put Pennsylvania with its 21 electoral votes in the win column, that gets John McCain over the line.
So with these polls starting to tighten now, Kiran, things are looking a little more advantageous for John McCain. When we flip back to the default setting here, he still has a long way to go to get there. But that's the situation that Governor Romney was talking about. So still, one day to go. It is possible tomorrow.
CHETRY: All right. Well, Sarah Palin, of course, the get this election season. Few have landed one on one with her but a pair of shock jocks from Canada got her on the phone. Now they're notorious for pranking famous people. The team who works mostly in French convinced Governor Palin that she was talking to French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You know we have a lot in common because personally one of my favorite activities is to hunt too.
GOV. SARAH PALIN (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Oh, very good. We should go hunting together.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Exactly. We could go try hunting by helicopter like you did. I never did that. Like we say in France (intelligible).
PALIN: Well, I think we could have a lot of fun together as we're getting work done. We can kill two birds with one stone that way. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I just love killing those animals. Mmm, taking away life, that is so fun. I really love to go as long as we don't bring your Vice President Cheney.
PALIN: No. I'll be a careful shot, yes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Well, they eventually fessed up. The campaign says that Governor Palin was "mildly amused" by it. These guys are called the masked avengers and apparently they've also tricked Mick Jagger, Bill Gates, in the past, and former French President Jacques Chirac.
ROBERTS: That exaggerated (INAUDIBLE) accent, that doesn't quite sound like Sarkozy.
CHETRY: No. Not at all.
ROBERTS: One thing you got to know about Governor Palin though is she's an expert marksman. So if she ever shots you in the face, it would mean she was aiming (INAUDIBLE).
CHETRY: Exactly. But she said she's a careful shot as well.
Seven minutes after the hour.
ROBERTS: Down to the wire.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will succeed. We will win.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Game plans for the final push.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will win this general election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Our panel of experts on the potential for last-minute surprises in the closing hours of the campaign. You're watching the "Most News in the Morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Welcome back to the "Most Politics in the Morning." We have a great panel. Our political panel assembled right now to talk a little bit about the election on the eve of voting.
Ed Rollins, Republican strategist and CNN contributor, as well as Julie Menin, Democratic analyst and board member for the Women's Campaign Forum. We also have John Avlon with us, a contributor to Politico.com and then independent. And also Marcus Mabry, international business editor at "The New York Times."
Thanks to all of you for being with us.
Julie, I'm going to start with you. I'm going to change it up a little bit. If you were taking a look at that electoral map and you're seeing that with the projections and with the estimates right now, Barack Obama has a much easier time, let's put it that way...
JULIE MENIN, NEW YORK DEMOCRAT: Right.
CHETRY: ... getting to or above 270, what's your advice to John McCain?
MENIN: Well, I think what he's doing in Pennsylvania certainly makes sense. He's got to stay on message there. I think overall, what he needs to do is what we saw him doing on "SNL", the lighter funnier side of John McCain. And that's what we really haven't seen in this campaign at all.
He seemed angry. He seemed defiant. And if he can really focus on that lighter side, as well as focus on the fact that in his opinion, Obama is inexperienced, he's got to go back to that experience issue. That came off the table a bit with the Palin nomination as in this closing hour. If he goes back to that experience issue, back to the experience and liberal ideology, that's what I think he needs to hammer home.
CHETRY: And, John, does this work with independents? I mean, basically his game now, you know, his strategy, I guess you could put it or game plan is to raise enough doubts or scare people about Barack Obama. Does that play with independents?
JOHN AVLON, DIR. OF SPEECHWRITING, GIULIANI PRES. CAMPAIGN: No. I always felt the "NOBama" strategy was a mistake for McCain.
CHETRY: You said "NOBama" strategy, right?
AVLON: The "NOBama" strategy, essentially running a negative campaign making a reference on Obama. I think what McCain needs to do to appeal to independents is not go negative but make the case that a Democratic supermajority in Congress would lead to liberal excesses that would not represent what most independents want out of the next government. That's a rational case he can give credit to Obama where credit is due, but when he goes negative, that really turns independents off. They don't want to see a return to this kind of cynical divisive play to the base politics that we've seen in recent years.
CHETRY: And, Marcus, I want to ask you about this because Democrats are looking at the very real possibility of one party rule in Washington, D.C. What is that going to look like should Barack Obama win?
MARCUS MABRY, INTL. BUSINESS EDITOR, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": Well, it's interesting. I think Barack Obama, if he does win, he will have won because he's made this message that it's about one America. It's about getting past the nasty rancor and partisan politics of the last really 12 years. Maybe 20 years, depending on how you look at it.
So I think it's got to be the same kind of different politics. He's got to go out there and he's got to reach across the aisle to Republicans, especially if Democrats -- and I don't see it happening in the Senate were to get a filibuster-proof 60 majority, which I don't, again, I don't see happening.
If they were, Obama is going to start off saying, you know what, we're not going to use it that way. We're not going to club Republicans over the head with our own agenda. He's going to reach out to the middle which, again, if he wins this election, it will because he did reach out to the middle.
CHETRY: And a couple of other things I've been reading they've said that he sort of has to make a cabinet level choice if possible or somebody at least high up there of a GOP person. Is that something that you think would happen, or do people make all these claims and once they got the keys, they're there?
ED ROLLINS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, I think the smartest thing -- first of all, he shouldn't do his victory lap until Wednesday. I think it's very, very important to keep doing what he's doing. And the suggestions of the panel here have been excellent suggestions.
I think he'll probably keep Gates. I think Gates would be a brilliant move to keep Gates and Petraeus and basically give them a mission of getting us out of Iraq, give them a year time frame, 18 months time frame and let it all be right there. I think Gates is someone who is well respected.
AVLON: I think that's exactly right. But I wouldn't name just one Republican. I'd name several. When JFK won by a narrow margin in 1960, he named three Republicans to his cabinet in senior positions. That's what the American people want. That's really incumbent upon Obama if he wins on Wednesday to set that tone early.
CHETRY: And Julie, is it going to be easier for Barack Obama to bridge the two parties if he wins versus John McCain just because of the way things have been stacked?
MENIN: I think so because Obama has run a less negative campaign. I think he's going to reach out to Republicans like Chuck Hagel and Lugar, and appoint them to cabinet level positions. And I also think that will help to appease even in his own Democratic Party some of the conflicts between the blue dog conservative Democrats, on the one hand, and the liberal Democrats. He's got to somehow come up with a real centrist policy.
CHETRY: Last word.
MABRY: That's true. The more the Democrats win, the bigger they win on Tuesday night in the House and in the Senate, the more conservative Democrats are going to be in that alliance. And so, actually, Obama is going to have to start by bridging his own parties, what will be a huge Democratic divide between liberals and conservatives in their own party.
CHETRY: All right. I want to thank you all for being with us. Great panel.
Marcus Mabry, John Avlon, Julie Menin and Ed Rollins, thanks.
ROLLINS: Thank you.
MENIN: Thank you.
CHETRY: It's 14 minutes after the hour.
ROBERTS: How is the issue of race affecting the race for the White House? And what will the result of tomorrow's vote mean for the country?
Ahead, Anita Hill tells us what she thinks.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Well, from A.C. to D.C., there's the nation's capital. And it's looking like not such a lovely day. Forty-nine degrees there and cloudy right now. It's going up to a high of 61, but it still will be cloudy.
You know, fall is definitely set in very heavily. And you can tell that winter is just around the corner. Leaves all changing there. They haven't fallen off the trees yet, but you know that they're going to do that one of these days.
CHETRY: Just beautiful.
ROBERTS: I was in New York yesterday watching all of the marathoners come in in Central Park. Thinking about this idea how wonderful it would be in places like New York City, maybe Washington, because there's no ski hills or anything, if it just went from fall right back to spring again. We'd skip winter.
CHETRY: We'd love that.
ROBERTS: We'd skip the whole winter.
CHETRY: And actually the marathoners, they'd get a pretty good day. This is exactly the weather they want.
ROBERTS: It's a perfect day to run. A little windy.
CHETRY: Because sometimes when we've had one of those Indian summers, it's not pleasant for 26.2 miles. How about it?
ROBERTS: You know, we're going to get the weather too a little bit later on for Election Day. It's supposed to be pretty good in the northeast and down in the south. It's going to be warm as well. We've had historic turnout in the early voting. So, I mean, does that portend -- what does that portend for Election Day? Is it going to be gigantic for Election Day as well?
And taking a look at the electoral college map too, here's where we stand in terms of the projections. Again, these are only projections; 291 as it sits now, electoral votes for Barack Obama, 157 for John McCain. And we've got tossup states now Montana and North Dakota, which is interesting, as well as Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida. But you know, we've seen these polls, Kiran, and they are tightening in these states.
CHETRY: They sure are. And a lot of people say that what it's really going to come down to is voter turnout. We've got early voting as we've seen. Twenty-three million, by CNN estimates, casting their ballots already and many more waiting to do so.
And we keep talking about the polls opening tomorrow. As we said, though, millions have already done that. A lot of these polling locations though have simply been overwhelmed by the amount of people interested in coming out and making sure their vote counts.
Our Jason Carroll has been looking into some early voting problems, and he joins us now.
Hey, Jason.
JASON CARROLL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's going to take a lot of patience in dealing with this one. Thirty-one states allow for some form of early voting, and late last week, many booths (ph) passed their 2004 turnout totals. Pretty much wherever you looked, Kiran, the lines have been unbelievable.
This is what it looked like in North Carolina this weekend. About 2.3 million people have cast a ballot by Friday. That's more than a third of all registered voters in the state. And the same could be said for what it was like in Florida. Take a look there.
Boy, look at some of those lines there. As many as three million people have voted there. The lines forming in some place 30 minutes, in one case hours before the polls were set to open. One voter called into the CNN voter hotline after being in line for three hours.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CNN VOTER HOTLINE)
CESAR JIMENEZ, PARKLAND, FL: It seems crazy that we're having to wait four -- three, four hours to get to do this voting process. Something's got to change. This is crazy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CARROLL: Patience is running out and the voters just keep coming. Late last night, we got a report from Franklin County, in Ohio. They had to cut off the lines there at 5:00 when the polls officially closed but the lines were already so long that it took until 11:00 p.m. to get everyone inside so they could get a chance to vote.
In all, a CNN count shows more than 23 million people have voted in 25 states. And a little bit of interesting information, in some of those numbers, not all the states report party affiliation. But of those that do, 58 percent of early voters have been registered Democrats, while 42 percent have been Republicans.
And one more final note in all this, that voter that you heard who called in from that hotline from Florida. We did call him back later in the day. He went back out to those polls, got a chance to vote at around 9:00 in the morning. He ended up voting though at around 5:00. So that was a five-hour wait for him. A long time.
CHETRY: And hearing all these reports, any idea how widespread the lines and the problems are, Jason?
CARROLL: Well, we're just getting, you know, lots of calls coming in to our CNN hotline. About 8,000 people have called in to the CNN hotline to report a problem and that's just here at CNN. Our partner at InfoVoter said it's received some 16,000 calls about problems. Many states have extended their polling hours, or states open through the weekend to try to deal with the crowds. But early voting is just not set up like it is on Election Day, and counties just can't seem to handle all the lines that they're dealing with -- Kiran.
CHETRY: All right. Well, hopefully they'll be able to get some of that squared away. They have a day. So we'll see. All hands on deck for sure. Jason, thanks.
Well, Barack Obama leads into the final polls before Election Day but he is not taking anything for granted. We're going to find out what the campaign is doing in these final hours.
Also expecting the unexpected. When the polls lead us the wrong way, when a whole generation of voters fail to deliver the "what if" that could change everything tomorrow.
You're watching the "Most Politics in the Morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Twenty-five minutes now after the hour and welcome back to the "Most Politics in the Morning."
Barack Obama supporters are taking nothing for granted in the final hours of this campaign. Joining me now is Michigan governor and Obama supporter Jennifer Granholm. She's with us this morning from Michigan.
Governor, it's great to see you. So the big question a lot of Obama supporters have today is, can he really pull this thing off? We had Governor Romney on just a little while ago, said, hey, the numbers are closing. Senator McCain's pollsters believe and he's got a real chance in places like Pennsylvania. I mean, are you concerned that a late surge by John McCain might take this thing away from Senator Obama?
GOV. JENNIFER GRANHOLM (D), MICHIGAN: Well, I do think that nobody can take anything for granted and I don't think the Obama campaign is. They've got a ground game that is is unprecedented. I can speak about Michigan, of course, but you know, in the states like Michigan that don't have early voting, our big concern is lines and making sure that people are not discouraged.
But in the end, people are going to vote their pocketbook, John. They're going to vote the economy and most importantly they're going vote for change, I hope. I mean, so that's why in Michigan he's done really well and that's why this election, I hope, will be the most historic election because citizens across the country will have stood up for change.
ROBERTS: Michigan, of course, a battleground state in many elections, not this election. It's in what we call the safe Obama category. But if you look at places like Ohio, Virginia, if you even look in Pennsylvania where the numbers are tightening in some areas of the state, it's a much, much closer race. And turnout is going to be key particularly among minority voters in states like Virginia and North Carolina if Barack Obama is to have a chance. Can you get that turnout on Election Day?
GRANHOLM: I think you can. I think people -- I mean, it's been demonstrated that people feel, they feel this act of patriotism in voting for change, in voting to ultimately change their own fortunes and the country. So I think that there will be an impetus to do that, John.
And ultimately, I mean the reason why Michigan is no longer technically a battleground state is because our state is the poster child state for what has gone wrong with the past eight years. So if Senator Obama is going to be giving middle class Americans a tax cut, if he's going to adopt a tax policy that keeps jobs in this country, he's going enforce fair trade, I mean, all of these are things that he is going to put on the table, $3,000 for every new job created. Here it's all about jobs, all about pocketbook, all about the economy.
We get it in Michigan. I want to make sure that people get the right to vote and get to be able to cast their votes. But I'm sure that when it comes down to it, states like Ohio and Indiana, who are very close to us, people will understand that this is about change for them and for their states, and I hope they cast their vote for Obama.
ROBERTS: No question, there has been unprecedented interest in this election in the early voting. We've seen some 23 million voters go to the polls so far. But there has been this idea for a number of weeks now that for Senator Obama this could be a coronation, that this is just a fete accompli, and might that cause some people to stay home on Election Day?
GRANHOLM: Well, that is the concern is that people see, you know, all of this hype in the media and the polls and all of that. Really, really, we don't know what's going to happen on Election Day and that's why nobody taking anything for granted. It's so critical. And nobody being deterred as well by the long lines.
You don't know what those lines are for. If you're an Obama supporter, those long lines may be for McCain. If you're a McCain supporter, they may be for Obama. Don't assume anything. The only thing that you can assume is that you are an American, and the greatest act of democracy happens tomorrow for you as a citizen, for everyday citizens. And if you could serve your nation by going overseas and fighting for our country that'd be one thing, but everyday citizens can have the greatest act of patriotism tomorrow and cast that right to vote and stay in line. Sacrifice if you have to. Stay in line so that you can cast that right.
ROBERTS: You're expecting some beautiful weather there in Michigan tomorrow as well.
GRANHOLM: Yes.
ROBERTS: So it might make the long wait easier, but as we said, though, your state is not really much -- much of a tossup right now.
But the campaign manager for Senator McCain, Rick Davis, was out last night talking to the media about Senator McCain's chances. He's talking about undecided voters, and there's still quite a few of those. And he said, "If Barack Obama has not closed the deal with them after two years in the campaign and a year as the nominee of their party," it's nice if it's just been a few months, "maybe they're holding out for a good reason."
Are you concerned that these late-deciding voters may break for McCain instead of for Senator Obama?
GRANHOLM: Well, I think that there's a lot of discussion about that. You know, the late deciders may break for McCain. But you know, who knows? Who knows, until tomorrow after 8:00 when these polls close? That's why, you know, people need to get out and vote.
ROBERTS: Right.
GRANHOLM: And for those undecideds, if they care about the trajectory, the curve, the arc of history for this nation, if they want to change what they're seeing on Wall Street and what they're seeing in their communities where jobs have gone to China or India or Mexico, or they care about education for their kids, health care for their parents and for themselves, this election is the moment for you to be able to step up and allow yourself at the water cooler on Wednesday morning to say yes, I acted in favor of our nation. And I voted for change.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN, ANCHOR: Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm for us this morning and in terms of toss up states, better luck in 2012. All right. Thanks so much.
GRANHOLM: Appreciate it. Thanks, John.
ROBERTS: Thank you. CHETRY: Happening right now, the final sprint of this historic race. New poll numbers showing where we stand right now. In our latest poll of polls gives Barack Obama 51 percent. John McCain with 44 percent and five percent according to this poll still unsure.
The candidates are also making an all day, all night effort to change that electoral map. Barack Obama is spending his day in a trio of battleground states that voted for President Bush in 2000 and 2004 - North Carolina, Virginia and Florida.
And John McCain is hitting seven states starting in Florida, ending at home in Arizona. Yesterday in Pennsylvania, a state that could make or break his chances, McCain said he's the one with the momentum right now.
And we are expecting record numbers of young voters, and voters overall, but what if everything doesn't go as expected tomorrow? Frank Sesno joins us now live from Washington with more on these what ifs. You talk about it really being an expectations game. Explain.
FRANK SESNO, SPECIAL CNN CORRESPONDENT: It's an expectation game, almost three dimensionally. I mean, the expectation start first and foremost tomorrow as you say. Huge expectations that a lot of young people, first-time voters, all these people who have registered just for this election are going to show up. Huge expectations that African-Americans in the democratic base are going to show up.
Gigantic expectations on the republican side that McCain's base, that part of the party that has been lit up supposedly by Sarah Palin will show up. Both campaigns are playing the expectations game. You hear again and again, McCain's folks saying all the polls are closing. They are trying and they have to build the expectations among their following that their votes matter, that this election is anything but over.
And sometimes in listening to the media coverage, you might be excused for believing that it is. And so this is what is driving the dynamic over these next 24 hours. There has to be this degree of intensity, of enthusiasm on both sides.
The most dangerous expectation is that the expectation will be realized in a sense and that is this die is cast. You just heard Governor Granholm talking about that and people will stay home that is death for either side potentially.
CHETRY: And what about the possibility that John McCain pulls out this last minute victory will the other side cry foul? I mean, is there no way because the polling for so long has really seemed to favor Barack Obama that if John McCain does win, people are not going to believe it's been fair.
SESNO: The lawyers have been deployed. We know that. There are observers in many if not most states who are going to be watching this closely. There are a number of people who have already kind of laid the ground work saying the lines are too long and the waits are too long and people shouldn't have to go through this. So I think if there is this upset and clearly it would be an upset given what we are see seeing in the polls, it would be very, very hard to look at this and a lot of head scratching.
CHETRY: If Barack Obama wins the White House and democrats could expand their majority, will republicans as we talk again about the expectation game, be able to claim victory in some ways, for example, if there's not a veto proof majority in the Senate?
SESNO: Well, I tell you, I've been around Washington an awful long time and I'm always amazed at how either side is able to kind of spin the results to try to give it a positive camp.
Again, it's going to depend on what the results are, what the turnout is, how the exit polls break out and both parties will try to sink their teeth into the most positive aspects of that. If things stay on track to the expectations game right now, if things stay on track right now, it would be very difficult for the republicans to crow about things.
They know that they are battling history and political cycles. There have been eight months of rising unemployment and it's going to be a very, very steep hill to climb here.
CHETRY: All right. Frank Sesno, thanks for being with us this morning.
SESNO: Thanks, Kiran. Sure.
ROBERTS: Is America suffering from racial amnesia, still to come, we're going to talk with Anita Hill and get her take on how the issue of race might affect tomorrow's vote. 34 minutes now after the hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Welcome back to the most politics in the morning. The issue of race has been undoubtedly been a part of this year's election and the results of tomorrow's vote will become a pivotal part of American history.
Joining me now to talk more about all of this is Anita Hill. She is a civil rights leader and the professor for social policy, law and women's studies at Brandeis University.
Ms. Hill, it's good to talk to you this morning. Thanks for being with us. Appreciate it.
ANITA HILL, PROFESSOR, HELLER SCHOOL, BRANDEIS UNIVERSITY: My pleasure.
ROBERTS: So we've talked to a lot of prominent African-American Obama supporters, people like former mayor Willie Brown of San Francisco, Congressman Jim Clyburn of South Carolina and they're anxious about tomorrow because you know they see this prospect of making history, something that many people thought they would never see in their lifetimes. And they're worried that it will be snatched away at the last second.
How are you feeling today?
HILL: Well, there is some anxiety, but more importantly I'm actually quite excited and energized, so I think that sort of tempered my anxiety.
ROBERTS: You know, people talk about the so-called Bradley affect, remember back in the 1982 gubernatorial race in California, when former L.A. mayor Tom Bradley ran, he went into the polls leading, and came out the loser on election day.
Do you believe there is still a Bradley effect and was there even a Bradley effect back then?
HILL: I think that were lot of things that came into play in the election that involved Mayor Bradley. I think we've moved beyond that time. That was about 20 years ago, as I recall. And I think we've moved well beyond that in terms of our attitudes about race, in terms of demographic, you know, the young people have different attitudes about race and they're going to be coming out and putting in, you know, voicing their opinions through their vote. So I'm not quite sure that we can look at that model and try to project what's going to happen on Tuesday.
ROBERTS: I hate to remind you, it was actually 26 years to go, which just goes to show how quickly time flies.
HILL: OK.
ROBERTS: Oh my goodness.
HILL: Yes.
ROBERTS: You have been addressing issues of race in the presidential race. You had a column in the "Boston Globe" the other day. I'd just like to read a little bit of that. You say " many of us who advocate for civil rights lament the fact that the country seems to have forgotten the role that race has played in the American experience. We even accuse America of suffering from racial amnesia yet racial amnesia may help Barack Obama and other democrats on election day.
Do you really think that this country has either forgotten or moved beyond race?
HILL: I don't think we've moved beyond race, but I do think that relying on our racial history to determine how we should vote in this election is not going to be a good thing. We've got so many pressing issues today. Issues involving the economy, jobs, health care and day care. And a host of issues that people want to see addressed.
This election is really about where we are today and what the issues are today. And really where we may be going in the future. Race is one of those issues. But it's not the only issue and it's not the most compelling issue. ROBERTS: Well, let me ask you about that in terms of where we're going in the future. Should Senator Obama prevail tomorrow and this nation wakes up on Wednesday with its first African-American president-elect, how do you think it will change the country?
HILL: I'm not sure that you're going to see any immediate change, but one thing for sure, there was a time and it wasn't that long ago when we thought and many people believed and they voted in this way that being an African-American was an automatic disqualifier for national leadership. Shall we say. That is no longer the case.
And how well this election has gone and how well this campaign has been run, really gives us an idea that it should never again be the case that being black should be a disqualifier for a national position. So I think in that alone, we will have changed. We have already have changed. And with an election, we could move it even further along.
ROBERTS: A much-need evolution in this -
HILL: But I don't say - it is, it's a marker, if you will, of where we have come in the last 40 years. In particular with regard to race and its role in politics. Whether it be an African-American candidate or whether it be a decision to vote republican versus democrat.
ROBERTS: Professor Anita Hill, it's good to talk to you this morning. Thanks so much for being with us.
HILL: Thank you. It's been my pleasure.
ROBERTS: All right. Take care.
CHETRY: Well the final push to make history. Barack Obama's last sprint through states that were George W. Bush territory two years - four years ago, eight years ago. Can he flip them? You're watching the most politics in the morning.
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CHETRY: Welcome back to the most politics in the morning. Barack Obama's final push included a city by city effort to tie John McCain to the past eight years. And the vice president's endorsement gave him more ammo yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location to hit the campaign trail. He said that he is, and I quote here, "he is delighted to support John McCain."
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Well, Suzanne Malveaux is covering the Obama campaign live for us this morning in Jacksonville, Florida. Suzanne, Obama is ahead in most polls this morning but some say it's showing a narrow Obama lead. Is the campaign feeling superstitious?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There's a little bit of that feeling. There's a lot of confidence. There's a lot of excitement. We heard from Barack Obama himself for the first time yesterday expressing that he may just win this election but, Kiran, I have to say consistently when you talk to Obama supporters, there's two things here.
There's that excitement but there's also a sense of they say they're terrified that something could go wrong. That here in Florida at least there are people who feel disenfranchised like perhaps their vote might be taken away. The Obama campaign understands that fear and they're kind of tapping into that, using that essentially as a motivator to get out and not to be complacent.
So you hear that at all the rallies, something our TV viewers don't actually see before and after these big, big rallies is the huge get out the vote effort. Now, literally, they've got volunteers. They've got sign up sheets. They're very organized. People meet afterward, before, trying to get information.
So they're working up until the very last minute to make sure that people get out of their homes tomorrow and vote. Early voting closed here in Florida but from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. tomorrow they'll be open for voters. They want to make sure they get everyone that counts. Kiran.
CHETRY: So breaking with tradition, Barack Obama schedule to campaign on election day. He's going to be doing it in Indiana. Why that state?
MALVEAUX: Well, it's right next door as you know to Chicago, Illinois. They share the same TV market. People in northwest Indiana are very much aware of Barack Obama. Very familiar with him. And it's also a chance for him to be seen not only voting in Chicago but also out there still campaigning, get the vote out effort to show that they're not being complacent, they really want to make that last push effort, Kiran.
CHETRY: All right. Suzanne Malveaux for us, thanks. It's 46 minutes after the hour.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): Presidential parodies.
ALINA CHO, CNN, CORRESPONDENT: You mean to tell me that in the back your mind you were thinking hey, I want Carter?
CHEVY CHASE, ACTOR: Oh, yes.
CHO: I'm going to make him look bad?
CHASE: Oh, yes.
ROBERTS: Chevy Chase comes clean. A candid conversation with the man who started it all on "Saturday Night Live."
CHASE: You just think they're doing this because Sarah is funny?
ROBERTS: You're watching the most news in the morning.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
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ROBERTS: Welcome back to the most politics in the morning. Throughout the election, we've been watching "Saturday Night Live's" political punch lines, but does the show actually have a message and an intent behind the laughs? One of "SNL's" original cast members certainly thinks so. And our Alina Cho joins us now with that.
You went and hunted down one of the originals.
CHO: I did. I found him in Boca Raton, Florida. Chevy Chase. Good morning, John. Good morning, everybody. Chevy Chase is one of "SNL's" originals. The first to do a presidential parody on "SNL," the first person to say "live from New York, it's Saturday night." He's been watching "SNL" this election season.
So, what exactly does he think about Tina Fey's impersonation of Sarah Palin? We sat down with him recently to get his take on the comedy show he helped create, one that's making light of the serious business of politics.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Good evening, my fellow Americans.
CHO (voice-over): John McCain, trailing in the polls, and the race for money.
MCCAIN: We, however, can only afford QVC.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: These campaigns sure are expensive.
MCCAIN: They sure are.
CHO: So the real McCain and the fake Palin are hawking housewares.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: And who wouldn't want the complete set of limited edition Joe action figures. There's Joe the plumber, Joe Six pack and my personal favorite Joe Biden.
CHO: Tina Fey as Sarah Palin is pure ambition.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: Listen up, everybody, I'm going rogue right now. So keep your voices down. Available right now, we've got a bunch of these -
CHASE: Tina, who's not an impressionist, per se, happened to fit right in there.
CHO: Chevy Chase is speaking from experience. Some believe his portrayal of Gerald Ford as a bumbling buffoon cost Ford the election in 1976.
CHASE: They wanted Carter in and I wanted him out, and thought, look, we're reaching millions of people.
CHO: Wait a minute, you mean to tell me that in the back of your mind you were thinking, hey, I want Carter -
CHASE: Oh, yes.
CHO: And I'm going to make him look bad?
CHASE: Oh, yes.
CHO: Wow.
CHASE: What do you think they're doing now? You think they're just doing this because Sarah's funny?
LORNE MICHAELS, SNL EXECUTIVE PRODUCER: We're not partisan, and we're not putting on anything that we don't believe is funny.
CHO: And it is funny.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: Here's a shout-out to all those third graders at Gladys Wood Elementary School who are so helpful to me in my debate prep.
CHO: Joking aside, Chase believes "SNL" affects the race because of the show's reach and the internet.
CHASE: My face, your face, the Facebook, myspace, your space.
CHO: Millions of eyeballs, watching this, Palin as punch line.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: And I can see Russia from my house.
CHASE: How might it hurt her? Check in tomorrow.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHO: Check in tomorrow. And on this election eve, "SNL" will take one last shot at the candidates in a two-hour special tonight, and we have learned, John, that Sarah Palin will be part of the show again. This time, it's not live, she actually taped something earlier for the show. This just in.
And in case you're wondering, Saturday's show with John McCain was the most highly rated "SNL" in nearly 11 years. The only show this season John that had more viewers was the one that featured McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin. That show got nearly 14 million or more than 14 million viewers. You know you heard Chevy Chase talking about the reach of the show via the internet. Well, listen to this "The New York Times" is reporting this morning that Tina Fey's impression of Sarah Palin has actually been viewed more than 50 million times.
It's really incredible. And Barack Obama, he missed "SNL", but he said he watched John McCain on YouTube the next day and he said he thought it was funny.
ROBERTS: Interesting. But Chevy Chase says is definitely an intent and Lauren Michaels says, oh, no.
CHO: Definitely not an intent. You be the judge.
ROBERTS: Fascinating stuff. Alina, thanks so much.
CHO: You bet.
ROBERTS: It's almost 53 minutes after the hour.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): They play on your emotions. Be warned.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Rise our taxes? No!
ROBERTS: Be inspired.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Everybody has a chance to succeed, from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor.
ROBERTS: But what motivates more?
Plus, he's ahead in the polls.
OBAMA: The time for change has come! We have a righteous win in our back.
ROBERTS: But just barely. Why is this race really still so close? You're watching the most politics in the morning.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
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CHETRY: I guess it's sort of the anthem for people who have made it their business for the past two years to cover this election. It's closing time tomorrow, of course. Welcome back to the most politics in the morning.
John McCain and Barack Obama's closing arguments still fresh on the minds of voters this morning. In fact, they're crisscrossing at 22 different stops throughout the nation today alone, still trying to get their message out. But who did a better job connecting with all these voters when all is said and done? What were the hits and what were the misses?
Well Drew Westen is an expert from voter psychology. He's also the author of the "Political Brain." He joins me from Atlanta this morning. Thanks for being with us. You know we talked about this saturation point. And when we look at our poll, there's still five percent. Perhaps there could even be more than that unsure.
What are they waiting for, Drew?
DREW WESTEN, AUTHOR "THE POLITICAL BRAIN": I don't know, but they should probably have their - go to a neurologist and have their brains checked about this point.
CHETRY: Because you're saying that there is enough going on and there's enough out there with both of the candidates that we should know?
WESTEN: Yes, you know, at this point, we've had about two years to study these candidates pretty well, so I think there are a lot of people who are really on the fence, a lot of independents who are still sitting there, trying to decide. They're weighing the economy on the one hand and their worries about Barack Obama on the other.
CHETRY: And let's talk about this. You identified some examples of what worked when the candidates were out on the trail this weekend with their closing arguments. We're going to start with Senator Obama. This is a speech he delivered in a key battleground state of Nevada.
Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: The men and women who served on our battlefields, some may be democrats, some may be republicans, some may be independents but they fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They've not served red America, blue America, they've served the United States of America.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Why do you think this resonated with voters, Drew?
WESTEN: Well, I think it was a wonderful closing in the sense, it really takes him back to where he began, actually back to 2004 when he gave that rousing address to the democratic convention. But it really brings his campaign full circle, with a theme of unity and the idea that we're all Americans, red, blue, black, white, it really doesn't matter.
CHETRY: All right. Let's hear from John McCain. He's in Pennsylvania. This is a state that's gone blue last election and in 2000. But he's trying to make it a battleground state even though he is lagging in the polls. He was there and he spoke at a rally Sunday. This is in Wallingford, Pennsylvania. You thought this was a strong moment.
Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth. I'm running to create more wealth. Senator Obama's running to punish the successful. I'm running to make everyone successful.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: What do you think, Drew? Why'd you like that?
WESTEN: Well you can tell by the crowd response that at least he's playing to the base on that one. And it's very punchy lines. It's lines that are memorable to people here, and they'll say, is that the contrast that I should remember.
CHETRY: Right. But you say playing to the base. And one thing that we've learned from you know political history is that oftentimes a candidate that's only running to say, be scared of the other guy, doesn't necessarily bring independents into the fray and bring independents into their voting column.
Could John McCain still do that?
WESTEN: Well, that's a challenge for John McCain. You know, in the primaries, he really had to play to the base, he had to go to the right to win the republican nomination, and now he's having to move back to the center to win the independents. And a lot of the language that turns on the base turns off independents and vice versa. I think that's really one of the biggest problems he's faced in this entire general election.
CHETRY: All right.
Drew Westen, author of "the Political Brain," joining us from Atlanta this morning. Thanks.
WESTEN: You bet. Happy to be on.
