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American Morning
Candidates Making One Final Push in Key Battleground States; Huge Early Voting Turnout in 31 States; Final Pitch on the Economy from McCain and Obama
Aired November 03, 2008 - 08:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: It's a minute now before the top of the hour. And happening right now, new poll numbers, a snap shot of where Barack Obama and John McCain stand in the race for the White House, our latest CNN poll of polls shows Obama up seven points, 51 percent to John McCain's 44 percent.
This morning, immigration officials are looking into whether any laws were broken by the disclosure that Barack Obama's aunt is living in the United States illegally. She was ordered to leave the country four years ago by an immigration judge. Speaking on CBS News, Obama says he was not aware of her status but says laws should be obeyed.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: She has violated laws, then those laws have to be obeyed. We're a nation of laws. And you know obviously, that doesn't lessen my concern for her. I haven't been able to get in touch with her, but I'm a strong believer that you obey the law.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Senator Hillary Clinton is condemning the use of her voice in a new Republican robocall. The Republican National Committee had used a snippet of one of her campaign speeches in which she said "Barack Obama didn't have the experience to be president. Clinton lashed out last night at the new calls.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I hear that John McCain and the Republicans are trying to mislead voters and use my words against Senator Obama. Well, let me be very clear. My name is Hillary Clinton and I do not approve that message.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: With the clock winding down, it's a race against time right now. One day to go until voters choose the future for the country. John McCain and Barack Obama still making their cases to voters. In the final hours, the candidates are laying it all on the line.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Now let me give you a little straight talk about the state of the race today. There's just two days left. We're a couple points behind in Pennsylvania, the pundits have written us off just like they've done before. My friends, the Mac is back.
(APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: We can change this country right here in Ohio and all across the country. In two more days, we can prove -- we can prove that we're not as divided as our politics would suggest. That we're more than just a collection of states or a collection of individuals. We're the United States.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Candidates are making one final push in key battleground states today. Both Barack Obama and John McCain start the day in Florida. CNN's latest Poll of Polls shows a very tight race there, with Obama holding just a four-point lead over McCain. So, what is Obama doing to try to close the deal in these remaining hours? CNN's Jim Acosta joins us now with more on that.
Good morning, Jim?
JIM ACOSTA, CNN GENERAL ASSIGNMENT CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John. Can he close the deal? Where have we heard that before? Well, Barack Obama may be on the verge of victory, but he's had trouble landing the knockout punch before, which is why he's reminding voters, John McCain is still standing.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ACOSTA (voice-over): Barack Obama's message, it's closing time.
OBAMA: I need you to make the case. I need you to close the deal. Because the time for change has come. You know it! And we've got the righteous wind in our backs.
ACOSTA: Obama's seen races tighten before. In the primaries, he built a commanding lead only to stumble in the last nomination contest, prompting Hillary Clinton to ask then --
CLINTON: Why can't he close the deal?
ACOSTA: But even Clinton's most passionate supporters say, it's different this time.
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: He's a much better candidate today, than he was in April. I have tried to panic, but I can't. Believe me. I have tried everything I can to not go to sleep at night, but it doesn't seem to work. I go to sleep.
ACOSTA: Which may explain this sign of confidence. This Obama fund-raising message offers donors a chance to win a ticket to history. Choice seats at his election night celebration. That's presumptuous say McCain campaign strategists, who see their own path to victory.
RICK DAVIS, MCCAIN CAMPAIGN MANAGER: I would say the southwest and Colorado are really moving in the McCain columns. We are still very competitive and we expect to win Florida. But I think the most important state to watch right now is Pennsylvania.
ACOSTA: Both sides are laying it on the line. The GOP's new robocall features a dated speech from Senator Clinton.
VOICE OF SEN. CLINTON: In the White House, there is no time for speeches and on-the-job training.
ACOSTA: Obama's new ad includes a rarely seen Dick Cheney.
DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm delighted to support John McCain and I'm pleased that he's chosen a running mate with executive talent, toughness and common sense.
ACOSTA: These last-minute appeals aimed at undecided voters who could make the difference.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: One thing we know about the undecided voters, they're almost all white. There are very few African-Americans who are undecided. Well, overall, white voters tend to favor John McCain.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ACOSTA: No Democrat since Jimmy Carter has gotten more than 50.1 percent of the vote. And he have to go back to 1964 to find the last Democratic presidential landside. So, Barack Obama is not just running against John McCain, he is running against history.
John?
ROBERTS: And you know, Jim, we just got some new polls out, this, you know, survey poll of polls that we get out and things are tightening up still even more.
ACOSTA: Yes.
ROBERTS: Florida is a little tighter. Virginia is a little tighter.
ACOSTA: And the conventional wisdom all along during this campaign has been wrong, has it not? Just about the entire way. And yet, all of the Sunday talk shows yesterday, we saw all of these very experienced analysts, all these old Washington hands, with this huge electoral landslides for Barack Obama, and yet we haven't seen the votes counted yet. We are seeing this polls tightening. It ain't over yet.
ROBERTS: The one thing we have learned in recent years is it ain't over until it's over.
ACOSTA: That's it. ROBERTS: Jim, thanks so much for that.
ACOSTA: You bet.
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Well, there is no stopping John McCain today. He's agreeing with these two, saying it's not over until it's over. Hitting seven states, running practically coast to coast.
And our Ed Henry is doing some running as well. He's traveling with the McCain campaign. He's in Tampa this morning.
Hi, Ed, what's the strategy today in that key, crucial battleground state of Florida?
ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, good morning, Kiran. It's really a two-pronged strategy for John McCain. First of all, he's got to hold these Republican states that George W. Bush carried in 2004, like Florida with these key 27 electoral votes. And John McCain is waking up to some good news. You just noted CNN's previous poll of polls here in Florida had it at a four-point spread for Barack Obama.
Just in the last couple of moments, we have a new poll of polls showing John McCain down only by two points. So it's tightening here. He needs to hold these Republican states. He also needs to pick up Pennsylvania, a Democratic state, win those 21 electoral votes to make up for some potential Republican losses elsewhere. And last night, at a midnight rally in Miami, McCain insisted he's still in this race.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: America faces a big choice and there's just one day left. The pundits have written us off, just like they've done before. And my opponent is measuring the drapes in the White House. They may not know it, but the Mac is back!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HENRY: He obviously feels some momentum. He's going to have to go back to Pennsylvania today, part of seven states -- battleground states John McCain is hitting in these final hours. The bottom line for him is that he has very little margin for error, though. He basically has to run the table in a lot of these Republican states, hold them, and also pick up Pennsylvania.
Kiran?
CHETRY: To reiterate, we just got the new Florida Poll of Polls. Barack Obama leading McCain by two points there, 48 percent to 46 percent. The last one before that showed him by four points ahead. So anything can happen still, I guess it's safe to say.
HENRY: Absolutely. And the other thing to pay attention to is that normally on Tuesday, Election Day, the candidate sits back, rests a little bit. It's been a long haul, obviously, 20 months or so, and wait for the returns. John McCain is not doing that tomorrow. Instead, we have learned he's going to be going to Colorado and New Mexico tomorrow, two more battlegrounds out in the west. Barack Obama making an offensive out there. John McCain wants to make sure he can make a run in Colorado and New Mexico to again make up for potential losses elsewhere. So, he's going to be working right down to the wire.
Kiran?
CHETRY: All right. And that means you are, too. We'll be checking in with you. Ed Henry, thanks.
ROBERTS: So, these two candidates are going all the way through, all the way to the end. Tomorrow night, join the Best Political Team on Television for election night in America. CNN is the place to be as the night unfolds.
You've seen the lines. Who has the early voting edge? New numbers just in, which candidate could be racking up the votes already. We'll tell you.
CHETRY: Down to the wire.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: We will succeed. We will win.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Game plans for the final push.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: We will win this general election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Our panel of experts on the potential for last-minute surprises in the closing hours of the campaign. You're watching the "Most News in the Morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: This just in to CNN. And now less than 22 hours before the first polls open, we have some new poll of polls that shows an ever tightening race here. Take a look at this.
First of all, the State of Florida shows Barack Obama now leading John McCain by two points. That was four points in our last poll of polls. CNN's New Pennsylvania Poll of Polls shows Obama now leading McCain by eight points. That's a bit of good news for him, because that last number was seven. But certainly, it's not the 13 that we saw a couple of weeks ago. And CNN's new Poll of Polls in Virginia shows Obama leading McCain by five points, 50 percent to 45 percent. That number was six yesterday.
So, things beginning to tighten up a little bit here in these final hours. It certainly going to be an interesting race.
CHETRY: Well, just 22 hours, in fact, until the first polls open. And CNN political analyst Donna Brazil joins us now to talk more about the excitement leading up to this.
Describe the next 24 hours for each campaign. What is the strategy for the day ahead? And let's start with the underdog, John McCain, who is trying to visit seven different states today alone.
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, first of all, as you well know, when a candidate appears in a state, it increases enthusiasm by one or two percentage points. We've seen a little bump in the last couple of days, and that is as undecided voters decide to break. They get more comfortable with the candidate that they've been leaning toward. So, there's no question the polls will tighten.
But what has already taken place, Kiran, as you well know is that a vast majority of Americans have cast what we call the early vote. And because of that, Senator Obama has banked quite a substantial number of voters who decided to start voting two weeks ago. So, in the last 24 hours, it's all about who can turn out their voters and making sure that you have that last-minute checklist, making sure that you contact all your precinct captains. And I know some people don't like to hear this, but precinct captains pretty much don't go to sleep. They have to unload and download their databases to make sure that they have reached out to every voter who said I will support my candidate.
CHETRY: But, Donna, let me ask you this, because it's interesting. You said that this early voting -- this early voting has broken in favor of Barack Obama, and John McCain's own spokesman, Tucker Bounds, said that getting out the early vote, this early voter was not their priority. Why?
BRAZILE: Well, that's a good question. Because traditionally, Republicans have done a great job with absentee voters. They've done a good job in reaching out to what we call sporadic voters. So, I don't know why this wasn't a priority. I guess they decided to put their last-minute resources into these negative robocalls, as well as a substantial media buy. But --
CHETRY: Speaking of the robocalls, I want to ask you, quickly -- will Hillary Clinton's call, this is one that she says she do not approve this message, but John McCain -- she is on this call that is out there in some of these key swing states saying that John McCain has more experience and all Barack Obama has is a speech he gave in 2002. Is that going to hurt Barack Obama, in your opinion, with the undecideds?
BRAZILE: No, because it's like an old song that you've heard over and over again. It's recycled material. It's nothing new. Senator Clinton strongly support Barack Obama, as well as former President Clinton, who is out there campaigning even today, encouraging people to get out to vote for Barack Obama.
So, it's not going to work. But you know, look, you cannot condemn the McCain campaign for trying everything. They've thrown the kitchen sink, the plumber, and if they want to throw Hillary's voice in there, nobody is going to pay attention because they know that Hillary supports Barack Obama.
CHETRY: All right. Now you know you've set first hand these things. You are of course al-Gore's campaign manager. And if you had to make a call this morning, how do you see it shaking out tomorrow?
BRAZILE: Well, if you look at the polls, and I'm one of these people that don't count my chickens until the eggs have been laid and the little chickens on the farm year. But if you look at the early -- the exit polls -- not the exit polls, the latest polls of polls, Senator Obama still has about 291 electoral votes in his favor. He's leading in all states by six or more percentage points. With a ground game, he'll make any other points up. So, I'm looking at Senator Obama maintaining his lead with 291 electoral votes. And we'll see what happens tomorrow night in states like, you know, Virginia, states like North Carolina, Indiana, and of course, some of those western states.
CHETRY: It's very interesting, because you shaved down his lead in terms of electoral votes. Weren't you more around 300 something yesterday?
BRAZILE: No. What I said is 291 solid, and I say he has the potential -- because I haven't added those states. I don't count my chickens until the eggs are laid. But I say he has the potential to get up to 343. Some people projected more.
CHETRY: I got you.
BRAZILE: I tend to be a lot more conservative, but I start with 291, where the margin of difference exceeds the current polls right now.
CHETRY: And hey, you can afford to do that, because only 270 needed to win as we know. Donna Brazile, great to speak to you this morning. Thanks.
BRAZILE: Thank you.
CHETRY: 16 minutes after the hour.
ROBERTS: Head start. Why the Democrats might have an early edge. We're breaking down some new, early voting numbers. You're watching the "Most News in the Morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Half minutes after the hour. Welcome back to the "Most Politics in the Morning." As the candidates make their final push, we're seeing a huge early voting turnout in the 31 states that have it already. 23 million votes has been cast so far.
And Jason Carroll is looking into whether or not the swarm of early voters has caused any problems. And he joins us now. Well, what are we finding?
JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Patience, patience, patience. You got to have a lot of patience out there. 31 states allow for some form of early voting, and many have already blown past their 2004 totals last week. Pretty much, wherever you look, the lines have been unbelievable.
This is what it looked like in North Carolina over the weekend. About 2.3 million people had cast a ballot by Friday. That's more than a third of all registered voters in the state.
And the same scene in Florida. As of Friday, more than 3 million people have voted. In one case, the line formed hours before the polls were even set to open. One voter called into the CNN voter hotline after being in line for three hours.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VOICE OF CESAR JIMINEZ, PARKLAND, FL: It seems crazy that we're having to wait three, four hours to get to do this voting process. Something's got to change. This is crazy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CARROLL: Yes. It seems the patience with some is wearing a little bit thin, but the voter just keep on coming. Late last night, we got a report from Franklin County, Ohio. They cut off lines there at 5:00 when the polls officially closed, but the lines were already so long that it took until 11:00 to get everyone inside to vote.
And all the CNN count shows more than 23 million people had voted in 25 states. And a little bit of interesting information in some of those numbers. Not all the states report party affiliation, but of those that do, as you can see there, 58 percent of early voters had been registered Democrat, while 42 percent have been Republicans. And one more final note, that voter who called into the hotline from Florida. We called him back later in the day. He got to the polls around 9:00 in the morning, he voted at about 2:00, so a five-hour wait for him. Can you believe that?
ROBERTS: Unbelievable. Yes, apparently, it was very similar in Virginia as well. People are telling me about four, five-hour waits. We hear all of these reports, but do we hear about widespread problems that the lines have caused, or has it just been inconvenient for people?
CARROLL: Well, I think for a lot of people it has been inconvenient. The long waits. We did get about 9,000 people who called to the CNN hotline to talk about some of their voting experiences. And obviously, many of the states are trying to do what they can by extending some of the hours, you know, to get people in there to vote, but I think a lot of people were just not prepared for this.
Another little bit of note there, one of my colleagues, you know, Mary Snow.
ROBERTS: Yes.
CARROLL: She's out there in Ohio. She told me that she spoke to some voters in the Columbus area waited seven hours. But the point is, they waited. They wanted to get out there and vote.
ROBERTS: Yes. A lot of people are dedicated. They're very enthusiastic about voting this year.
CARROLL: Yes.
ROBERTS: And of course, the early voting is over now. Just down to tomorrow. We'll see how many people come out to the polls then.
Jason, good to see you. Thanks so much for that.
CARROLL: All right.
ROBERTS: Don't forget. CNN wants to help you on election night. If you have concerns about possible voting irregularities in your state, let us know. You can call us toll-free at 1-887-GOCNN-08. That's 1-887-462-6608.
Kiran?
CHETRY: Cutting taxes, raising taxes, Joe the Plumber, Joe the CEO. Well, you've heard their closing arguments. Now, we're going to see what the experts say. Which candidates' economic message is really hitting home?
And is emotion the strongest motivator of all? What the candidates say to pull your heart strings and get your vote. The power of emotion at the polls. You're watching the "Most News in the Morning."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: Senator Obama is running to spread the wealth. I'm running to create more wealth.
OBAMA: It's about whether you believe we should only reward wealth, or should we also give a break to workers and honor the work.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Welcome back to the "Most Politics in the Morning." The final hours, the final pitch on the economy from John McCain and Barack Obama, just one day before the election. Whose message will prevail?
Joining me now is Douglas Holtz-Eakin. He's the senior economic adviser to the McCain campaign. He's in Phoenix for us this morning. And Austan Goolsbee, senior economic adviser to the Obama campaign joins us from Chicago, Illinois.
Austan, let's start with you. You heard what Senator McCain said. He's been hammering on Senator Obama as being the, quote, "redistributionist in chief."
He's got an editorial today in the "Wall Street Journal" in which he says, I will fight the Democrat's plans to redistribute the fruit of America's labor and turn our economy into a full-fledged disaster.
How do you respond to that?
AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, OBAMA ECONOMIC ADVISER: It's a total hyperbole. The way I respond is I invite anybody that is unfamiliar with the plan to just go read them. You don't have to take either of our word for it. Just go look at them.
Barack Obama's program is a tax cut for 95 percent of workers in this country. That's not welfare. It's not a handout. That is not a redistributionist, socialist agenda. There's a reason why Paul Volcker, Warren Buffett, Bob Rove (ph) and Bill Dennison, people like that have endorsed Obama. He's not a socialist. He's talking about cutting taxes for the people who need it, not for millionaires and billionaires as in the McCain plan.
ROBERTS: Doug, you and Austan have debated this many, many times. Is Senator Obama a socialist?
DOUGLAS HOLTZ-EAKIN, MCCAIN ECONOMIC ADVISER: It's not the issue of whether he's a socialist or not. The question is, what will his program mean for America?
If you look at independent experts, they say that Barack Obama's plans will cost 6 million jobs over the next four years. John McCain would created 2 million jobs. So, this is an election with a clear choice. Do you want to have lower taxes, control spending in Washington, energy to grow and jobs, or do you want to have higher taxes on small businesses, expensive mandates, draconian environmental regulation and cost jobs? And given the state of the economy, it's a very clear choice. And we're starting to see it resonate with people given the polls close.
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: Well, Doug -- but let me ask you this question, Doug. Senator McCain is sticking by his pledge that he wants to balance the budget by the end of his first term, that would be in 2013.
I haven't run across any economists, who say that's possible, particularly given the economic situation now, and the fact that it looks like we could have a $1 trillion deficit between now and next year, and may be even higher than that the next fiscal year. And you even seem to suggest that this idea of balancing the budge may be out the window?
HOLTZ-EAKIN: Well, I mean, obviously, it's the thing you want to do. He's the only candidate in the race who's expressed a desire to get fiscal house in order. You can't do it the way we've done the past eight years. So, you'll actually have to have a Congress, Democrat, Republican alike, that is interested in putting our fiscal house in order.
ROBERTS: Right.
HOLTZ-EAKIN: He'll have the leadership to do it.
(CROSSTALK)
ROBERTS: But the point is --
HOLTZ-EAKIN: But it's going to (INAUDIBLE) on the Democrats. There's no question about.
ROBERTS: The point is -- the point is, though, can he do it now?
HOLTZ-EAKIN: He can do it. The question is whether the Congress will join him in doing it. And we need to do big things together. We need to protect social security for the long-term, put it on a fiscal track. We got to take on Medicare, keep the budget balanced. Getting it balanced is one thing. Keeping it balanced and doing the right thing for our children, that's an important step.
ROBERTS: Austan, what do you say about that?
GOOLSBEE: Look, I'd say two things. If you look at this balancing the budget plan that McCain has put forward with no specifics, if you tried to do that, it would devastate the economy. We're facing the biggest crisis in 75 years and what we need now is Obama's rescue package. Which is absolutely jobs focused. It cuts taxes for 98 percent of small businesses, and it gives jobs credit.
Under McCain's plan, there is nothing specifically given to small business at all. It's relying on cutting taxes for millionaires to be the magic beanstalk beans that are going to grow the economy. But we need to stop spending money on that and use it on the people who have been struggling, and that's the Obama program.
ROBERTS: Doug, let me throw this at you. The tax policy Senator says, both of the candidates' plans for tax cuts would blow a hole in the budget. Our friend, Jeff Saks, from Columbia says, this idea of cutting taxes, we just can't afford to do it. We're going to have to raise taxes, if anything. Can Senator McCain afford to cut taxes and still try to balance the budget?
HOLTZ-EAKIN: The top job has to be to get the economy going. And take it in a new direction away from where we are now. That's the best route for the American people. That's what John McCain's campaigning on. It's also the best thing for the budget.
We've never been successful at reducing the deficit when the economy wasn't growing rapidly. So, let's get the economy going. Let's keep jobs in America. Let's keep small businesses hiring people. Let's do the right thing by the U.S. economy. And then, put the fiscal house in order by cutting spending, not proposing $1 trillion in new spending, as Barack Obama has done. That's a big difference in this campaign.
We've seen what the Bush administration left behind, a fiscal mess, and to promise more spending than even George Bush is a huge mistake.
ROBERTS: Gentleman, we're going to have to leave it there this morning. We thank you very much for joining us over the course of the campaign. It's good to see you.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Good to see you.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Thank you.
ROBERTS: Last appearance before the election. And we'll check in with one or maybe both of you on Wednesday. All right. Take care now.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Take care, John.
CHETRY: Well, new this morning, we have a brand-new CNN poll of poll numbers released just moments ago that show a tightening race, especially in two key battleground states and the race widening ever so slightly in another.
Let's check these out right now. Let's start with Florida. Barack Obama now leading John McCain by just two points. That means McCain was able to cut Obama's four-point lead in half from our last poll. Now, in Pennsylvania, Obama leads McCain by eight points. That's a one-point increase over the last poll.
And the race gets closer in Virginia. Obama now leading by five points after McCain picks up another point over the last polls there. And it is a last-minute dash to the finish line. We have just one day left until the first polls open and we choose our next president. As the clock speeds down to the zero hour, it's the last chance for Senators McCain and Obama to reel in voters. Both candidates are vowing that if they're in charge, they'll shake up Washington.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to win here and we're going to bring real change to Washington. We've got two days, knock on doors. With your help, we can win. We need you to volunteer, we need a new direction, and we have to fight for it. And we can fight for it for the next two days and we can win.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: After eight years of failed policies from George Bush, after 21 months - you don't need to boo, you just need to vote.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHETRY: Well, we've heard the rhetoric and we've heard the platforms and promises, as John McCain and Barack Obama make their frantic final push in these last few hours. Is there anything new they can say? Well, once again, our political panel joins me now here in studio. We have Ed Rollins, Julie Menin, we have John Avlon and we have Marcus Mabry. And your titles are going to be on the screen. We're trying to get to some of the questions.
And Marcus, let me ask you about this final push. What can the candidates say to the voters in the next 24 hours to sway opinion either way?
MARCUS MABRY, INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS EDITOR, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": You know there's not much they can say. They can certainly look at these polls and the Obama people can say, look, we have tightening, we can't take anything for granted.
We have to work, work, work until the very last minute. And that's what you see Obama saying on the stump. Even though McCain's says he's out there measuring drapes for the White House, I think they already know the measurements of the White House since we change presidents every four or eight years.
The second thing is, McCain has to keep drilling home the fact that Obama is risky, risky, risky, risky. He has to keep saying that. What we're looking at is you now our polls is ticking one point and one point the other way. It's very exciting for us to watch here in the media, but the fact is, in reality, one or two points is not a significant shift in a poll.
That's why we have margins of error, of usually three or four points, because we don't know what the exact measurement is. That's why any number can be three points higher, three points lower, four points higher, four points lower. The important thing to remember in this is that the polls are about trends.
We don't have a lot of time between now and tomorrow, so we're not really going to be able to really say what the trends are, really bigger movements in one or two points. The fact that Indiana, a state that is deep, deep, deep red is actually in contention on the CNN poll of polls. Right now, McCain is ahead by just I think one point. Indiana has not gone to a democrat since 1964, with LBJ. The time before that, 1936, FDR. This is extraordinary, and that's bad news for the McCain camp.
CHETRY: And let me ask you about this, John, you wrote in a column today, "the lesson is that narrow hyper-partisan appeals are not enough to govern effectively or representatively in the 21st century. Ignoring the center is a sure path to political isolation..."
What does this mean for the future of politics, if indeed there is, let's just say, the way it's shaking out right now, Barack Obama gets more than this slight, slight 50 percent?
JOHN AVLON, DIR. OF SPEECHWRITING, GIULIANI PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: Sure, look, I think whoever wins this election represents the repudiation of Karl Rove and his play to the base politics. The American people have decided in their rejection of President Bush that the politics of personal destruction plagued the debates, divisiveness is not what they want.
Both McCain and Obama rose in opposition of that very explicitly. And I think that there's an opportunity for a new era. Because what we've seen also are those negative attacks that have worked very well in the past, backfired, particularly among independents this cycle. The American people are smart and they're rejecting that kind of divisive politics.
CHETRY: Is this the end of Karl Rove's politics?
ED ROLLINS, FMR. HUCKABEE CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: It's not the end of the conservative republican base. It's certainly, his strategy is not being implemented in this campaign. I think the critical thing here is that Karl Rove ran a campaign that he won by seven percent in Pennsylvania last time, there was a 15 percent shift for McCain.
So you know we're fighting on our own turf. And I think to a certain extent, after this election, we have to figure out who we are and what our coalition is and what we are as a party.
JULIE MENIN, NEW YORK DEMOCRAT: I think that we're seeing, though, especially from Barack Obama, very uplifting rhetoric in the last final days of the campaign. He recognizes that this is a question of bringing the country together, on the left, on the right.
And I hope that if he does win the election, that he's really going to focus on a centrist policy, not lean too far to the left, not lean too far to the right and really go down to the center, because that is what Americans want.
CHETRY: All right. Let's go through the list and we're going to talk about predictions here.
Let's start with you, Ed Rollins?
ROLLINS: Well obviously, if Pennsylvania is going away from the poll, that's the key to the McCain victory at this point in time. The rest of them were fighting on our turf, dead-even races in Indiana, Ohio, Florida. Those are states that should be our states.
CHETRY: So you're saying Obama? You don't want to say it, I'll say it for you.
ROLLINS: I'm voting for John McCain tomorrow and I hope a lot of my fellow Americans are too.
CHETRY: And you also don't think the democrats are going to get majority in the Senate?
ROLLINS: I think it's going to be awfully close. It think it's 58 or 59.
CHETRY: All right. Let's go down to Julie right now. Your prediction?
MENIN: Well, it's a new area of bipartisan support, because I agree with Ed. I think basically that Obama's going to win. I think in terms of electoral votes, we're looking at 350, 360, somewhere in that range.
I think in terms of the Senate, we're not going to know for a couple of weeks because I do think races in Georgia and races in Alaska, Alaska's got 44,000 absentee ballots, that's 15 percent of the electorate there. That's going to mean that they can't count those for a couple of weeks.
And Georgia, I think we're looking at a runoff. I don't think we're going to know the answer, but I think in terms of the Senate, I don't think eventually it will get to 60. I think 57, 58, 59.
CHETRY: John.
AVLON: I think Obama, but with a narrower victory than some people are expecting, closer to 300 than 350 electoral votes. And in the Senate, I think it will be closer to 58. Around eight pickups, I don't think they hit a 60 percent threshold which will be good. It will be a tempering factor, not leading to kind of liberal excesses which will provoke a backlash as much.
CHETRY: Marcus.
MABRY: I agree with my fellow panelists, I believe. Democrats not making that 60 mark. However what Obama does in the percentage totals is going to depend on white voters. Right now, he's polling 42 percent among white voters. That's among the best the democrats have done in the last 30 years. If he can keep that 42 percent, if he raises it to 45 percent of white voters, then you have an amazing landslide. I don't know if he can do that.
CHETRY: All right. We'll have to wait and see. But thanks to all of you for your input this morning.
ROBERTS: By the way, we should point out that "The Washington Post" asked the same question of 14 different people. Some in what they called the new guard and some old guard, 12 out of 14 believe that Barack Obama will in fact win the presidency over John McCain. 14 our of 14, said nope, no filibuster proof majority for the democrats in the senate.
You hear what the candidates say when you see them here on CNN but how are they making you feel, how the candidates use the power of emotion is the real motivator in the election emotion? We'll tell you. 37 minutes now after the hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: We're down to the wire now. As you've seen this morning, emotions are running high in both campaigns. Barack Obama looks to lock it down while John McCain says he is still a fighter. So is that what it's all about at this point? Emotion? Our Frank Sesno has some feelings about that. He joins us now from Washington. So what are your emotions telling you about the way that these two candidates are appealing to emotion? FRANK SESNO, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I'm an emotional guy, John. What can I say? I mean that I think that both of them are appealing to emotion. This has been a very emotional campaign from the outset. I mean, let's take a big, broad step back. John McCain is a Vietnam veteran. He was in a prison of war camp, he's a hero. That's an emotional background.
So is Barack Obama, obviously, as a biracial African-American candidate. So there's been emotion in this campaign laden throughout from the very beginning. And the backdrop, fear of the economy, fear of terrorism, there's just a huge emotional underpinning.
ROBERTS: Obama was on the campaign trail in Cleveland over the weekend. Let's hear some of what he said in that appeal to voters.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: In two days, at this defining moment in history, all of you can give this country the change we need and it starts right here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: So what did you think, Frank, about that appeal to voters?
SESNO: I think that appeal and a lot of what the Obama campaign has been built upon has been principally surrounding the emotion of hope. That certainly has been what Obama's talked about. I mean he's talked about the fierce urgency of now. He's talked about the righteous wind in our backs. He's talked about not red states and blue states, but the United States of America. His own story built in this wrap of hope.
And so while he has engaged in fear campaign tactics too in terms of what a McCain presidency could be, he has really tried very hard, much like Ronald Reagan, interestingly enough, to be that sort of optimist in chief, stand for and sound off about a sort of hopeful future.
ROBERTS: Yes. John McCain taking the converse position, appealing to emotion by putting a negative spin on his opponent.
Let's listen to what he said over the weekend.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCAIN: My friends, we have troops fighting in two wars and their answer is to lower our defenses and raise our taxes? No!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: So, Frank, is that the best way for him to appeal to voters? Usually the message in these closing hours is positive.
SESNO: Well, in some ways, it's that only thing he can do right now. Because he's got to scare people. I mean, look, he's trailing and he knows that and he's talked about his underdog status. He's got to scare people away from Barack Obama, that's what he's tried to do.
But he's also had to invoke fear in a sense in terms of him distancing himself from George Bush. So one of the things that McCain has done throughout has been to you know have a bunch of name calling, whether Barack Obama is a redistributionist, or a socialist, the word Marxist has come up here and there, and in fact these ads that are running in Pennsylvania even now invoking Jeremiah Wright. A lot of fear on that side.
ROBERTS: All right. We'll find out very soon if it pays off or not. Frank Sesno, always good to see you. Thanks for being with us.
SESNO: Thanks, John.
ROBERTS: All right. 42 and a half minutes now after the hour.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHETRY (voice-over): Voting 101. What to do if you get into trouble Tuesday. A must-see guide to navigating typical problems at the polls. You're watching the most news in the morning.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Welcome back to the most politics in the morning. You know, early voter turnout has been unprecedented. 23 million Americans have already cast their ballot and there's hope that the trend will continue on to election day. CNN' Carol Costello has been fielding viewer questions about their vote and she joins us now.
Fingers crossed that things are going to go smoothly, but we're seeing some bumps in the road already, aren't we?
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Oh, we are. And they're expecting a big surge on Tuesday, so the lines will still be long, although lots of people have already voted. We have taken our cameras out across the country to ask voters what they're most concerned about, so let's head to Erica now, shall we?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ERICA WILKINSON, CONCERNED VOTER: Hi, America. Welcome from Sarasota, Florida. Election day lines could definitely be an issue for me just because I don't have three hours to kill waiting in line, I mean, jobs, school, five days a week type things. So definitely worried about it. Rumor has it that three hours is the possible waiting time. So it may be an issue. I mean I may actually not wait to vote, and that's disappointing, because it's my first time.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: Oh, Erica, stick it out and vote. And believe me, we all share your pain. The best advice, do not go after work, go at an odd time, like let's say at 2:30 in the afternoon. Tell your boss you are voting, call your boss with updates, and do your part. Familiarize yourself with the ballot.
We filled out a test ballot in Ohio. It took seven to nine minutes to fill it out. But if you live in a state with 13 local issues in addition to President and you have not looked at a sample ballot, you could be in that polling booth for an hour.
So go online, check it out, and one more thing. We've seen long lines in early voting, but keep in mind on election day polling places will be running at full speed. There'll be more machines and more poll workers. Don't forget, bring a book, bring a chair, meet new friends. Who knows, maybe you'll meet the love of your life until you find out that he's voting for Obama and you're voting for McCain and then it will be over. Let's go to the next question.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KARLA MOSLEY, CONCERNED VOTER: Hi. I'm Karla Mosley. I'm from Westchester, New York. And I live in Astoria in Queens and I'm wondering if I show up to the polls next Tuesday morning and I think I'm supposed to vote in one place but they tell me that I'm actually supposed to vote in another place, how do I know where to go and what do I do if I don't have time to search around to get to another polling area?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COSTELLO: That is such a good question, Karla. Yours is the most asked question. Now, here's what the league of women voters says. Know the right information ahead of time. We are a nation of procrastinators. We wait until the very last minute to find out where we're supposed to vote. Don't ask your neighbor.
Who knows if Martha next door really knows what she's talking about. Since Karla is from New York, she should visit the New York board of elections web site, or - and this is easy, get ready to listen, go to vote411.org. At this site, there's a place where you'll type in your name, your address, and your zip code and, bingo, your polling place will come up. It's easy and it's right there. Vote411.org. You'll find out your correct polling place and won't waste all that time in line for no reason at all.
CHETRY: Good advice, vote411.org. And you can just type it right there.
COSTELLO: Type in your zip code, your polling place will come up. Because let's say you have the wrong polling place and you've waited in line for five hours, you'll feel like you know jumping off a cliff.
CHETRY: Exactly. Don't do that! Carol, thanks so much.
Well CNN wants to help you out on election night. If you do have concerns about possible voting irregularities in your state, we'd like to know about it. You can call us toll free, 877-go-cnn-08. That's 877-462-6608.
ROBERTS: Well long before Tina Fey said that she could see Russia from her house, there was Chevy Chase comically stumbling and bumbling on "Saturday Night Live" as Gerald Ford.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHEVY CHASE, ACTOR: what do you think they're doing now? You think they're just doing this because Sarah's funny?
ROBERTS: Why Chevy Chase says "SNL" can have real impact on an election. 49 and a half minutes now after the hour.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(MUSIC PLAYING)
ROBERTS: Well to the most politics in the morning, we are less than 24 hours now until America votes and CNN is using its resources on the campaign trail big time with our political correspondents and battleground reporters, spread out across pivotal states.
One of those critical states is Ohio. It's a must-win for Barack Obama and John McCain. And today, both tickets are hitting this key state hard. CNN's Mary Snow is live in Columbus, Ohio, for us this morning. Mary, some states cut off their early voting on Saturday, November 1st, was the last day. They're still going there in Ohio today.
MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, they are, John, until tonight when the polls close and there has been very heavy turnout. This morning, people were waiting three hours before polls opened.
Last night, the board of elections here in Franklin county and Columbus, where we are, stayed open six hours later than expected because of the long lines. There is certainly a lot of enthusiasm among voters, but also a sense of urgency. This campaign unleashed a massive get out the vote effort, not just among campaign workers, but the candidates themselves.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
OBAMA: Ohio, I have just two words for you. Two days.
SNOW (voice-over): Barack Obama in Columbus, trying to seal the deal in a state where he's had the slight lead. Hours later, Sarah Palin was in the same city rallying republicans in hope of a late surge.
GOV. SARAH PALIN (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Ohio, are you ready to make John McCain the next president of the United States?
SNOW: As the candidates made their final push, the decideds turned out in heavy numbers. Some people waited more than four hours, in Columbus this weekend to cast early ballots and for those who haven't voted - this call was paid for by the Ohio republican party and authorized by McCain-Palin 2008. Thank you. That was an undecided.
SNOW: Republicans are hoping undecided will turn the tide for them. They tout targeted calls like these that turned out voters that helped George Bush win in 2004. In the final hours -
TRACI SALIBA, MCCAIN CHAIRWOMAN, DELAWARE CO., OHIO: We're looking toward republican voters who are going to get out and vote for McCain-Palin.
SNOW: And volunteers like these vets hit the pavement.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Voting for McCain?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Remember to encourage your friends.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Absolutely. I'm a military girl. It's nice to have a guy in there that can take care of us.
SNOW: Not far away.
ROSIE YANG, OBAMA VOLUNTEER: We want to get you out there on the streets as soon as possible.
SNOW: Team Obama has prided itself on its ground organization that's blanketed the state.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Who are you going to support in the general election?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Obama.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Great.
SNOW: Democrats reminded voters they came up short in 2004 by an average of nine votes per precinct. They're counting on young people like volunteer Jessica Bobel.
JESSICA BOBEL, OBAMA VOLUNTEER: I feel like we're going to make the difference this time around.
SNOW: Ohio state political professor Paul Beck says don't underestimate the republican push.
PAUL BECK, OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY: It's very strong and it will be very effective, but my sense is the democrats have not only caught up to them, they've actually surpassed them.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SNOW: And the Obama campaign is relying on its ground game here. It has about twice as many campaign offices throughout the state than republicans. And the republicans have not been as eager to share their numbers, saying they'll do that after election day, but certainly it is so intense here, John.
ROBERTS: Extraordinary, the amount of interest in this election. It's like the process to get here is 2 1/2 years long and then we have a two-week long election. Amazing. Mary Snow for us in the capital of Columbus in Ohio. Mary, thanks so much for that. 55 minutes now after the hour.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTS (voice-over): Presidential parodies.
ALINA CHO, CNN, CORRESPONDENT: You mean to tell me that in the back of your mind you were thinking, hey, I want Carter -
CHEVY CHASE, ACTOR: Oh yes.
CHO: And I'm going to make him look bad?
CHASE: Oh, yes.
ROBERTS: Chevy Chase comes clean. A candid conversation with the man who started it all on "Saturday Night Live."
CHASE: You think they're just doing this because Sarah's funny?
ROBERTS: You're watching the most news in the morning.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Welcome back to the most politics in the morning. John McCain having some fun on "Saturday Night Live" this weekend and through the election we've watch the show's political punch lines, but does "SNL" have a message behind the laughs? Our Alina Cho sat down with original cast member Chevy Chase who certainly thinks so.
Let's take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Good evening, my fellow Americans.
CHO (voice-over): John McCain, trailing in the polls, and the race for money.
MCCAIN: We, however, can only afford QVC.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: These campaigns sure are expensive.
MCCAIN: They sure are.
CHO: So the real McCain and the fake Palin are hawking housewares. TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: And who wouldn't want the complete set of limited edition Joe action figures. There's Joe the plumber, Joe Six pack and my personal favorite Joe Biden.
CHO: Tina Fey as Sarah Palin is pure ambition.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: OK. Listen up, everybody, I'm going rogue right now. So keep your voices down. Available right now, we've got a bunch of these -
CHEVY CHASE, ORIGINAL SNL CAST MEMBER: Tina, who's not an impressionist, per se, happened to fit right in there.
CHO: Chevy Chase is speaking from experience. Some believe his portrayal of Gerald Ford as a bumbling buffoon cost Ford the election in 1976.
CHASE: They wanted Carter in and I wanted him out, and thought, look, we're reaching millions of people.
CHO: Wait a minute, you mean to tell me that in the back of your mind you were thinking, hey, I want Carter -
CHASE: Oh, yes.
CHO: And I'm going to make him look bad?
CHASE: Oh, yes.
CHO: Wow.
CHASE: What do you think they're doing now? You think they're just doing this because Sarah's funny?
LORNE MICHAELS, SNL EXECUTIVE PRODUCER: We're not partisan, and we're not putting on anything that we don't believe is funny.
CHO: And it is funny.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: Here's a shout-out to all those third graders at Gladys Wood Elementary School who are so helpful to me in my debate prep.
CHO: Joking aside, Chase believes "SNL" affects the race because of the show's reach and the internet.
CHASE: My face, your face, the Facebook, myspace, your space.
CHO: Millions of eyeballs, watching this, Palin as punch line.
TINA FEY AS SARAH PALIN: And I can see Russia from my house.
CHASE: How might it hurt her? Check in tomorrow.
(END VIDEOTAPE) CHO: That's right. And on this election eve, "SNL" will take one last shot at the candidates in a two-hour special that will air tonight. We've learned that Sarah Palin will be part of the show. But this time it's not live, she taped something earlier for the show.
And in case, you're wondering, Saturday's show -- the highest ratings in nearly 11 years. The only one that rated higher was the one where Sarah Palin was the live special guest, guys
ROBERTS: John McCain and Sarah Palin ratings goal. We'll see if they can do it at the box office --
CHO: That's the bigger question.
CHETRY: And John McCain's fine gold that was sale yesterday.
CHO: With Cindy McCain showing up.
CHETRY: Loved it. It was funny.
Thanks, Alina.
CHO: You bet.
ROBERTS: Thanks so much for joining us, this morning. We will see you again bright and early tomorrow.
CHETRY: That's right. A special show, an hour earlier again tomorrow.
Right now, here's CNN NEWSROOM with Heidi Collins.
