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Campbell Brown
McCain vs. Obama
Aired November 04, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And CNN can project winners in several of those states. In fact, eight of those states, we project, will go for Barack Obama.
Take a look at this. We project that Senator Obama will carry the state of Massachusetts, with 12 electoral votes. That's fully expected. We also project that Senator Obama will carry his home state of Illinois, 21 electoral votes, fully expected. Connecticut will go for Barack Obama, seven electoral votes. New Jersey, as expected, will go for Barack Obama, and its 15 electoral votes, New Jersey widely expected.
Maine, there are four electoral votes. We're projecting that three of those four electoral votes in the state of Maine will go for Barack Obama -- Maine one of two states that can divide up their electoral votes, Nebraska the other state that divides up. All the others are winner-take-all.
In Delaware, we project that Barack Obama will carry Joe Biden's home state, three electoral votes in Delaware. In Maryland, 10 electoral votes, Barack Obama will carry Maryland. And, finally, the District of Columbia and three electoral votes, Barack Obama takes Washington, D.C.
We project that John McCain will carry two states so far that have just closed, Oklahoma and its seven electoral votes, Oklahoma going for John McCain, and Tennessee, 11 electoral votes, going for John McCain. We project those two states.
Now, there are six states that have just closed their polls we cannot make any projection in right now. Those states are Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire, to a certain degree, and Pennsylvania, those all are considered battleground states.
We don't have enough information yet to -- to make a projection in those six states. But, based on what we have projected so far, right now, Senator Obama is ahead with 77 electoral votes. The blue states are his -- 34 for John McCain. The red states are his.
The yellow states, the polls have closed in those states, but we have not yet been able to make a projection in those states. We're getting more information over at voter analysis.
And I want to go to Soledad O'Brien and Bill Schneider, because they're going through the exit polls to help us better appreciate what is going on in the country right now -- Soledad. SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: All right, Wolf, let's take a closer look, then, at South Carolina, very interesting there. A couple of interesting categories to look at.
So, first South Carolina.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: OK, let us go to South Carolina, which is red here because it has gone for John McCain.
Now, take a look at African-American voters in South Carolina. They were 26 -- they about a quarter of the vote -- almost unanimously, 96 percent, for Barack Obama. That, of course, was expected. On the other side, you have white voters who voted for John McCain. Where are the white voters? There they are.
White voters, this is a phenomenal showing. McCain got 71 percent of the white vote in South Carolina. And where he especially did well were white evangelical born-again voters, who were no less than 39 percent of the voters in South Carolina. They voted a solid 84 percent for John McCain, which is better than George Bush did nationally in the last election.
O'BRIEN: So, this picture here, these graphs, in a nutshell, why John McCain was able to walk away with South Carolina -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Soledad, thanks very much.
And, as we continue to watch what's going on, let me just recap what we know so far. Of the states that we have made projections on, Senator Obama right now with 77 electoral votes, to 34 for John McCain. Remember, 270 is the magic number. You need 270 electoral votes to be elected president of the United States.
So, right now, just after 8:00 p.m. on the East Coast, Senator Obama has an advantage, but it's still very, very early in this night.
Let's take a look. Once again, I will update you on the poll numbers, on the election results that are actually coming in. These are real ballots, not exit polls.
In Florida, right now, with 15 percent of the precincts having already reported, Senator Obama maintaining his advantage, 55 percent to 44 percent. It's just changed, actually, 55 percent-45 percent. He has a 316,150 advantage over Senator McCain in Florida.
Virginia right now, almost 20 percent of the precincts have reported. 56 percent for McCain, 43 percent for Obama. He's ahead by 66,000, McCain, in Virginia.
And, in North Carolina, about 2 percent of the precincts have now reported, very early, 62 percent for Obama, 38 percent for McCain, very, very early in North Carolina. That's a battleground state, with its 15 electoral votes.
So, it's shaping up. It's still very, very early. We're watching it closely, Campbell and John, but you know what? We will do it the old-fashioned way. We will let the votes come in.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, old-fashioned. Wolf, what's wrong with you?
Let me ask you, we know we're being conservative here, but we have all been talking about Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania closed. Show us quickly why we haven't called Pennsylvania yet.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Because we don't have any votes. There is a whiteout line in the state of Pennsylvania.
And, Campbell, we could back in the primaries. There were a couple of examples. Missouri comes to mind as one of them, where others -- they're our competitors -- we love them dearly -- went out on a limb and made calls that turned out to be wrong. We are not going to do that here. We're just going to be extra conservative and count the votes.
BROWN: Right.
KING: We know what the exit poll says. People have seen the public polls. You can guess at home if you want, but we're going to be conservative. We're going to count the votes.
BROWN: I'm all for that.
OK, now let's look at two states, because I know we have got additional information in some of the counties, Indiana and Virginia.
KING: I want to go into Virginia first. We will look at Virginia here and it's starting to fill in. And you see a lot of red here and you see Senator McCain is running ahead right now, only 20 percent of the vote in.
A couple key things. Number one, this is a key battleground here. I am going to turn this up and stretch this out a little bit. This is a key battleground area down here in southeast Virginia. You have a Christian conservative area in Chesapeake, also in Norfolk, a military community, naval bases, key to Senator McCain.
Also, though, in Norfolk and Hampton Roads, a significant African-American population. This is a battleground. In southeast Virginia, we have no votes. That's why it's white there.
Want to come back up here. We also have very few votes up here in the Washington suburbs. And this is ground zero for the state of Virginia, because of the fast growth of the Washington suburbs and the more Democratic leaning over the past 10 years of the Washington suburbs, so not much in there yet. So, if you're the Obama campaign, you see these early numbers, and you're saying, let's wait and see what happens more up in the state.
I do want to show you something. We just showed this in Indiana. I want to show it again in Virginia, because we're beginning to see a pattern state by state. And we can go to Florida and see it as well. I'm going to randomly pick a county.
I didn't know where I was going. We're going to Louisa County in central Virginia. And you see John McCain getting 57 percent of the vote with 36 percent of the vote in. Here's what I'm doing, Campbell.
I'm just going back in time and testing a trend, because we're seeing this everywhere. I am going to go back to '04, 59-40 percent. That one is not so bad. That is more comparative, pretty close to four years ago.
Let's come fast-forward again and let's pick another one in another part of the state to see if John McCain -- the reason I'm doing this, to see if John McCain is running as strong as George W. Bush in some of the critical areas.
You come down here along the North Carolina border, Halifax County, McCain 52, Obama 47, 91 percent of the vote in, so we're close to a county here. Let's go back in time, again, not much population. We just want to see the trend then and now.
BROWN: Right.
KING: Let's go back four years ago. McCain has 52 now, George W. Bush four years ago, 57. So, he's underperforming.
BROWN: Right.
KING: That's not as dramatic as we saw in Indiana, but...
BROWN: But you're seeing that across the board pretty much.
KING: John McCain cannot afford to underperform George W. Bush in rural Virginia, because what we expect to happen in the Washington suburbs, what we expect to happen in the African-American community in Richmond and down here in Norfolk. John McCain has to at least equal George W. Bush in the rural parts of the state.
BROWN: He needs to be overperforming in those areas to compensate for the growth up in north...
(CROSSTALK)
KING: That's what your hunch would tell you. He has to at least match up. But the way Northern Virginia is trending Democratic, if he's going to hold it, he has to hold everything Bush did.
And we're seeing this increasingly. I'm going to come down to Florida. This is 2004. I'm going to come right here. I'm going to bring Orlando out. This is 2004. This is a big and growing county, independents. This is a swing area in Florida, which is Kerry-Bush, 50/50, right?
OK. Let's come forward now to 2008. This is what we see so far in Orlando, 77 percent in, Obama 60, McCain 39.
BROWN: Wow. KING: If numbers like that continue to hold -- and, again, 20 percent statewide. Everybody take a deep breath. Break out the pretzels. We are going to have to let the count come in here.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: But this is the I-4 Corridor, too, which is the deciding...
KING: This is the money. In Florida, this is the money. This is where, in a close race, it is decided right here.
And, again, 20 percent statewide, but watch all this blue. Now I'm going to go back four years ago. Remember, you see blue over here in St. Pete. You see Orlando and in the central Florida area. Excuse me for stepping across, but we're going to back in time now to four years ago. Remember all that blue?
BROWN: Yes. Wow.
KING: Well, there's a lot of red. And if Barack Obama continues to hold those counties right in here and if McCain continues to underperform the Bush numbers, you can see where the night is going.
BROWN: So, demographic changes here, too, a big factor?
KING: Absolutely. Absolutely.
This is one of the areas -- and we can show you that, actually.
Let's come up to the demographics here. We can show you that it's a little more difficult to see here, but this is an area where we see -- the more you see the colors is the more intensity of something. You're beginning to get a larger Hispanic population up here in the I- 4 Corridor.
You also have registration changes, Campbell. Used to be more Republicans. Now there are more independents. Democratic registration is up. Independent registration is up. Republican registration is down. This is the swing area in Florida. Want to turn that off and come back to where we are.
If a lot of this is blue at the end of the night, Barack Obama has a pretty good chance of winning Florida. George Bush turned it red four years ago. This is a critical battleground.
BROWN: All right. Do we time? Let's go to Indiana real quick and get your read there, because I know we have got a few more counties in Indiana. And it's that same trend comparing it to 2004.
KING: This is filling in. And you see a very competitive race right now, McCain ahead 32 percent, so we have got about a third of the vote in. We have a long way to go.
But, again, if you look at it, remember what we said before. This we know will be a pretty Democratic area. It's not in yet. This is a college campus area right here. It's not in yet. Turn off the Telestrator, so I can bring this out. This is a college campus area. It's not in yet.
You move over here. Obama is running pretty well in these rural counties. And key again -- let's just pick one out of blue. We're going to go -- we came there before. Let's try another one over here and let's come up here to the corner. Steuben, only 0.5 percent of the population, McCain's getting 54 percent of the vote.
Let's go back in time, compare him to George W. Bush in Steuben County.
BROWN: Wow.
KING: Bush getting 65 percent of the vote. Everywhere we look -- almost everywhere, anyway, McCain is underperforming Bush, which is a problem.
BROWN: A bad sign for McCain in Indiana. We will keep an eye on it. Still, as you mentioned before, John, still only 33 percent total I think for the state of Indiana reporting, so a lot more ahead.
Wolf, let's go back to you.
BLITZER: All right, guys, thanks very much.
I want to show our viewers what's going on, first of all, in Chicago. This is Grant Park. You're looking at these live pictures. Thousands and thousands of people have shown up there. Eventually, they anticipate that Barack Obama will be speaking there at some point down the road. That's where they have gathered.
And, out in Phoenix, there you see the ballroom at the Biltmore Hotel. Senator McCain eventually will be speaking there. They're getting ready for that. They're in Phoenix in a ballroom at a beautiful hotel, the Biltmore Hotel.
I want to go back to Grant Park in Chicago now.
Suzanne Malveaux is our reporter there. She's right in the middle of that crowd.
Suzanne, we got a better microphone for you this time. Hopefully, we will hear what you're saying, because you have a very enthusiastic, crowd and they're going to be screaming, no matter what you say.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, I'm going to try this again. Hopefully, you will be able to hear me.
But they're watching CNN. They're listening to CNN, so they are very, very excited. We expect about 70,000 people to be here in Grant Park. I want to give you a quick overview here. We have got the crowds gathered here.
You have got hundreds and hundreds of cameras of media from around the world covering and watching this particular event. If you go over behind me, you will also see the podium. That is where Barack Obama will be speaking. It's a spread of 25 flags and glass plates to protect him, unprecedented security.
And, then, of course, to see the monitors in the background watching themselves, watching the excitement, the anticipation, Wolf, you can't believe. They're not waiting for the results. They're already starting The party here at Grant Park.
And I'm telling you, it's not just here. They're expecting a half-million to a million folks along the lakeside. It has already started here -- Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, very exciting. We heard every word that you said, Suzanne.
MALVEAUX: You did?
BLITZER: I love those microphones. We were using those at the conventions. And our viewers not only can see us. They can hear us as well. That's really important.
Suzanne Malveaux, we will be getting back to you.
I want to go to Dana Bash. She's over at the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix, Arizona.
There you are, Dana. You have got a nice microphone. Tell us what's going on where you are.
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, a very, very different kind of atmosphere here at the Biltmore, but you know what? This is not planned to be anything close to what you're seeing from Suzanne and from camp Obama in Grant Park there in Chicago.
People are starting to gather in this relatively small ballroom here. They are watching the returns as well. Every time they have seen one of those solidly red states so far go for McCain, there have been wild cheers here.
But what's going to happen is at some point people who are here are going to move outside to a great lawn. And that is where John McCain is going to address his supporters here in Arizona.
And I got to tell you, in terms of the mood, again, talking to advisers who are here, they're monitoring everything that they can in terms of numbers that are coming in. And it hasn't changed much. It is still stoic. It is still realistic. And they are trying to sort of keep their chin up and realize -- over and over and over, they tell us, this is a very difficult year for any Republican.
And they say that there will be time for postmortems in the future, but, right now, they say they're just going to keep their fingers crossed that John McCain can do what he has done many times before, which is pull off a big surprise. But, again, I think realism is probably the best word to use to describe camp McCain right now -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Good word.
And they're applauding -- they're not applauding Dana Bash.
(LAUGHTER)
BLITZER: The Phoenix Boys Choir behind her, they're applauding. They did a nice job.
BASH: Exactly.
BLITZER: We could hear them in the background during your report, Dana. We're going to be getting back to you soon.
All right, Dana Bash is in Phoenix. Suzanne Malveaux is in Chicago.
Let's update you on what we know right now. Here are the votes as they're coming in, with all these states now having closed. In Ohio, less than 1 percent of the precincts have reported, Obama ahead 68 percent -- 67 percent to 32 percent. But, remember, this is very, very early in Ohio, 20 electoral votes at stake.
In West Virginia, Obama 56 percent to McCain's 43 percent, but, once again, less than 1 percent of the precincts have reported, so it's very early in West Virginia.
In Georgia, 4 percent of the precincts have reported, McCain with 63 percent, to Obama's 36 percent, very, very early in Georgia and its 15 electoral votes. And, in New Hampshire, only 5 percent of the precincts have reported, 57 percent for Obama, 42 percent for McCain.
New Hampshire has four electoral votes. You want to see all these numbers coming in, in real time, CNN.com, that's where you can go, get a wealth of information, CNN.com.
We're -- our coverage will continue from the CNN Election Center right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: All right, we're back here at the CNN Election Center.
By the way, Anderson, Arkansas closes at 8:30. So, we will see what's going on there, but a whole bunch of other states close at 9:00 p.m. on the East Coast. So, the numbers keep on coming in.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: And we're still watching some of these key battleground states, Virginia. We're looking at Pennsylvania, Georgia, a lot of places. Florida, we're watching very closely, North Carolina as well -- a lot to cover in these next couple minutes.
BLITZER: Yes, I want to walk over and update our viewers on what we know right now. Let's go to Florida. Already, 30 percent of the vote -- of the precincts in Florida have reported, and Senator Obama maintaining an advantage, 53 percent to 47 percent. He's up by 251,332 votes, 30 percent of the precincts, Florida, critical number of electoral votes, 27 at stake.
In North Carolina, another battleground state, right now, only 5 percent of the precincts have reported, 58 percent for Obama, 41 percent for McCain, an advantage for Obama of 172,720. But, remember, that's early. Only 5 percent of the precincts are in -- 35 percent of the precincts have now reported in Indiana, and McCain maintaining a slight advantage, 51 percent to 48 percent. He's up by 37,130, 11 electoral votes in Indiana.
And, in Virginia, almost 30 percent of the precincts have now reported, in Virginia, Senator McCain maintaining an advantage, 56 percent in Virginia to 43 percent, up by 107,000 votes or so, 13 electoral votes at stake in Virginia.
Let's bring in David Axelrod right now. He's a senior adviser to Senator Obama. He's joining us from Chicago.
David, thanks very much for coming in.
What do you think? What's going on, from your perspective?
DAVID AXELROD, CHIEF OBAMA CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: Well, good things, Wolf.
I mean, we like what we see around the country. We like the turnout. We like the early returns. We're thrilled that Indiana is competitive. Obviously, Pennsylvania was a key. The McCain people identified Pennsylvania as a must-win state for them to put their 270 together.
So -- and we're looking forward to the returns from the Western states, where we think we are going to do really well. Early vote out there was really robust. North Carolina looks interesting.
And, you know, I mean, the inspiring thing is that all over this country today, people came out, sometimes waiting in long, long lines, for hours and hours, to participate in this process of changing the direction of the country. And we think, at the end of the day, that that's exactly what we're going to do.
BLITZER: Tell our viewers in the United States, David, and around the world what Senator Obama is doing now, where he is, Michelle Obama, and what we can expect to see them, to hear from them over the next few hours. What's your game plan?
AXELROD: Well, he's home right now with his family. As you may have reported, as you know, he played his traditional basketball game with his -- with friends and staff late this afternoon.
It's become sort of a tradition, and a lucky one for us, so we didn't want to disrupt that. He went home, spending quiet time with his family. He's going to come downtown later this evening. And he will come out and speak. We have got a great crowd in Grant Park, as you know. He's going to speak when we know something and when it's clear. We don't need to -- we have waited two years, Wolf. We can wait a couple more hours to draw conclusions here.
BLITZER: I know he's superstitious about playing basketball on Election Day. Any other superstitious elements that go on, on a day like this?
AXELROD: Yes, well, one superstition is not claiming victory too early. That's a big superstition we have.
BLITZER: Yes, that would be bad.
AXELROD: And...
(LAUGHTER)
AXELROD: And, so, that's something that we're not going to do, but, no, that's the big one. He carries around some -- people give him lucky charms around on rope lines and at town hall meetings and so on. And he's carried those in his pocket through this campaign.
But, look, I think, ultimately, this isn't really about luck. It's about whether or not the American people respond to your message and believe that we should move in a new direction. And I think, tonight, we're beginning to see that that's exactly what this country wants to do.
BLITZER: All of us were deeply saddened yesterday when we learned that his grandmother, his 86-year-old grandmother, passed away. How is he dealing with this enormous loss? We know how much he loved her and what a critical role she played in raising him.
AXELROD: Well, no doubt she was -- she played a formative role in his life. And much of who he is as a result of her love and her guidance.
But it was not a huge surprise. She had been ill. He had been told that things were grave. That's why he went to Hawaii, you know, toward the end of the campaign, because the doctors said it may well be that she wouldn't make it to the election.
And I think, yesterday, he was feeling very happy that he had done that, that he had been able to see her. And that meant lot to him, but, of course, it's hard. And, you know, he -- I think he's been buoyed by the enormous outpouring of people who have sent their good wishes.
And, yesterday, in that crowd, you could sense it. There were tens of thousands of people and they were all there supporting him through that difficult moment. So that is -- that's some solace right there.
BLITZER: Yes, I'm sure. And our deepest condolences to him and his family. Is there anything you're seeing, David, right now that is giving you a little heartburn, any problems out there as far as voter irregularities or surprises that you might not necessarily like?
AXELROD: Well, of course, there are always issues at the polls, Wolf.
And we want to make sure that everybody who has been in line gets a chance to vote. And we're making sure that that happens. But, if you ask me what's giving me heartburn, it's that I can't exactly figure out what should be giving me heartburn right now.
And that's an unusual position to be in. And I'm trying to grasp -- I'm trying to deal with that. The main thing is just to -- you know, we would love to make the clock go faster and get the numbers counted and come to some conclusion.
But everything we see at this juncture seems positive to us, and not just positive about the outcome, but positive about the possibility of putting together a new coalition.
BLITZER: All right.
AXELROD: He's spoken since 2004 about breaking up this red state/blue state paradigm. I think we could possibly do that tonight.
BLITZER: But you haven't unleashed these thousands of lawyers that you have on standby all over the country. That has not been necessary right yet. Is that true?
AXELROD: Well, there have been places where we have needed to intervene to make sure that there were more voting machines or ballots available.
But I don't see any gross irregularities, any pattern of irregularities, just the normal stuff you would see on an Election Day. And that's very positive.
But we're prepared even now for anything that might arise.
BLITZER: And, finally, I just want to show our viewers once again the live pictures. Thousands of people are gathering in Grant Park right now. They're obviously very excited, in Chicago, along the lakefront there.
But, at some point later tonight, you anticipate Senator Obama and his family making the move and going over there. That's where he's going to address his supporters. Is that right?
AXELROD: Absolutely. Yes, he will be there. And we're looking forward to it. It's great to be back in our hometown to be with our great supporters.
So, we're looking forward to that. And we're just asking for a little bit of patience while the votes get counted here.
BLITZER: All right, you have been patient a long time. You can be patient a little bit longer.
David Axelrod, thanks very much.
AXELROD: Thanks, Wolf.
BLITZER: We will be talking.
David Axelrod is in Chicago.
We're watching all of this unfold. We have got new numbers coming in, more poll closings, getting ready for that. CNN.com is where you can get all the results coming in live.
Stay with us. Our special coverage from the CNN Election Center continues after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: And CNN can now project that New Hampshire will go for Barack Obama -- New Hampshire. This is obviously very, very painful for Senator McCain, because he desperately wanted New Hampshire. That's where he really got going in his bid for the Republican presidential nomination. But based on the exit polls, based on the actual numbers coming in, CNN projects that New Hampshire and its four electoral votes will go for Barack Obama.
Nine percent of the precincts have reported. Right now, Senator Obama has 60 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, 39 percent for Senator McCain. That's an advantage of 14,397, under 10 percent of the precincts reporting.
As I said, this is a state that Senator McCain really wanted to win. He was very sentimental about all of those town hall meetings he did there, jumpstarting his campaign early on, after Iowa. But New Hampshire, New Hampshire will go for senator -- for Senator Obama.
Bill Schneider and Soledad O'Brien are at voter analysis right now at the CNN ELECTION CENTER.
Soledad, what are we seeing?
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: Why are we giving New Hampshire to Senator Obama? Let's go to the voter analysis board.
A couple of interesting categories to truly explain it all. So if you pull up New Hampshire here on our board --
BILL SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Which should be blue.
O'BRIEN: OK. And let's take a look first, highly educated voters. That's always been a good category for Barack Obama.
SCHNEIDER: That's right. Voters with a post-graduate degree, the top of the educational category, this is one of the top groups that delivered for Barack Obama. Seventy percent for Barack Obama. I mean these, they are going to New Hampshire. It's a very high-tech state. This is a very big breakthrough for Democrats to do that well with post-graduate educated voters.
O'BRIEN: Wolf was talking about the dismay that John McCain must feel especially when he was really targeting those independents. But you see, they're blue here which means they went for Barack Obama.
SCHNEIDER: That's right. The top groups are the most where Obama had the biggest advantage, and his advantage shrinks a little bit until you get to the middle. Independents, blue, they voted 60 percent for Barack Obama, 38 percent for McCain. A big disappointment there, the fastest growing group in the New Hampshire electorate.
O'BRIEN: Men was a category that Barack Obama was targeting hard and had to do well in.
SCHNEIDER: And men in most states have voted Republican, but here in New Hampshire, by a slight margin, 52-47, they went for John McCain, sorry, for Barack Obama over John McCain.
O'BRIEN: So pretty close there, but everywhere else as you can see...
SCHNEIDER: Blue, blue, blue, blue, blue.
O'BRIEN: Barack Obama made a lot of blue on that map.
SCHNEIDER: Just a few red categories in New Hampshire.
O'BRIEN: Which means Barack Obama taking New Hampshire. Bill, thank you.
Wolf, you can see it right there in the map.
BLITZER: All right. Soledad, thanks very much.
I want to take a look at some numbers coming in, ballots coming in, and some Senate races that we're watching very closely. Let's start in the state of Virginia.
We've already projected that Mark Warner, the former Democratic governor of Virginia, will win this contest against the former Republican, Governor Jim Gilmore. Fifty-nine percent so far for Warner, 39 percent for Gilmore. Thirty-six percent of the precincts in Virginia have reported.
This is a pickup because Warner, this Warner, will replace John Warner, the Republican, no relation, as the next senator from Virginia.
In Kentucky, right now, with 39 percent of the precincts reporting, look at how close it is. The Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, with 51 percent; Bruce Lunsford, the challenger, 49 percent. Very, very close.
We are in no position to make a projection in Kentucky. This is one race that the Democrats have worked very hard to capture. McConnell, Mitch McConnell, fighting for his political life right now.
In North Carolina, look at this. Eight percent of the precincts have reported. Kay Hagan has been challenging Elizabeth Dole, the incumbent Republican. Kay Hagan ahead by 57 percent to 40 percent, but only eight percent of the precincts are in. Kay Hagan making a very, very strong challenge. Elizabeth Dole fighting for her political life as well.
And in New Hampshire, a similar situation, John Sununu is the incumbent Republican. Jeanne Shaheen, the former Democratic governor, popular, very popular. Nine percent of the precincts have reporter. Fifty-six percent for Jeanne Shaheen, John Sununu 41 percent. She's ahead by almost 10,000 right now with almost 10 percent of the precincts in. This is a race that we're watching very closely as well.
Let's go back to Campbell and John King. I think you're looking at North Carolina right now, is that right Campbell?
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: We're going to look at all of these races because we are getting a little bit more information as we look more closely at the counties. And we're not calling any of them, as you mentioned yet, Wolf, except for the Mark Warner win in Virginia.
But let's take a look at North Carolina.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: North Carolina, you see it. The red is the counties pulling in for Senator Dole; the blue, the counties pulling in for her challenger Kay Hagan. This is one of the key counties in the state of North Carolina, Mecklenburg County. It's almost nine percent of the state population.
African-American population there but also, Campbell, the banking community. There's been a lot of trouble there because of the financial meltdown, Wachovia Bank headquarters right there. A lot of economic issues there.
Senator Dole is at the moment not performing as strongly as she needs to in Mecklenburg County. You come out here in the more Democratic counties and Hagan running. These are early -- well, these counties 72 percent out here. If the Democrat is winning out here then the Democrats in pretty good shape. But we'll watch the rest of these results as we come in.
I want to go north. This place is a blowout. But I want to show something here.
This is the state of Virginia.
BROWN: Right.
KING: This was a Republican state not all that long ago. Look what Mark Warner is doing to former Governor Jim Gilmore. Jim Gilmore is not a nobody candidate. He was a former governor of this state in the past decade, and this is a blowout. The Republican Party in the state of Virginia is going to be having a long talk with itself about what to do next.
BROWN: It bodes well for Obama in Virginia as we wait for those numbers as well.
KING: Certainly does. Certainly does.
Now Warner has his own personal popularity because Mark Warner left as such a popular governor, but the Republican Party of Virginia has a long many months ahead trying to figure out what happened there.
This is New Hampshire, Campbell. Ten percent of the vote in, Jeanne Shaheen, the former governor there. This is another weight of battle of heavyweights among Senate candidates, the former governor against an incumbent senator who's the son of a former governor and the former White House chief of staff.
This looks kind of bleak. You said there's not much voting. But most of the people live here and actually most of them live even further south. Concord, the capital, most of them live here.
Let's stretch this out a little bit and look. Many of you might be familiar with this area from the Democratic primary. This is Manchester, almost nine percent of the population, and this is what Jeanne Shaheen needs to win. She's running very well in this blue collar area.
This is where Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama in the Democratic primaries. It's where the people live. You want to get them there. And one other key place is out here on the coast, Portsmouth, Democratic town out right near the coast of New Hampshire and Jeanne Shaheen running well ahead there with about 40 percent of the vote in there. So the early numbers suggest the Democrats are in for a strong night in New Hampshire.
We will watch because this part of the state, more rural.
BROWN: Right.
KING: Sununu will do well up in here. The question is down here where the people live and one of the places we haven't seen anything yet is Nashua. That's another big city in the state of New Hampshire.
BROWN: But let's take a quick look at Kentucky. Because this one, as Wolf pointed out, is still way, way too close to call but this is a crucial seat. Mitch McConnell trying to hold on to his seat here.
KING: He is the leader of Senate Republicans and in a lead in a year when you know the president of the United States is largely being repudiated by the vote happening tonight, John McCain is in a very tough race.
And let's assume for the sake of the argument it's a long way to go, that if McCain loses, who is the leader of the Republican Party? Well, Mitch McConnell, the Senate leader, is one of the highest ranking Republicans in the country right now, and as you can see, he is in quite a race here.
Let me erase this so you can see the numbers more clearly. This is one of these races. A, Obama puts some money in the state, the Democrats put some money in the state because they would like to beat Mitch McConnell. It's also a place though where the leadership supported that financial bailout.
BROWN: Right.
KING: That was the thing the leadership had to do.
BROWN: And they're being punished for it.
KING: But some voters didn't like it.
BROWN: Yes.
KING: In many places, you do see a bit of a backlash, where people wanting to blame somebody for what has happened to their 401(k)s and everything else and the uncertainty in the banking community, the uncertainty in the economy. If you're an incumbent, especially Republican incumbent on the ballot who supported that, you're having a tougher race.
And this is an interesting map when you look at it filling in. The Democrat is doing well where he needs to. Out here when you start getting out into these rural counties, Democrats putting up some respectable numbers. We're going to be watching this one for a while. Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, if he were to lose tonight, then we would have a Democratic wave.
BROWN: Right. Still early, again, the only race we've called is Mark Warner in Virginia. But as you said, things looking very good for Democrats right now in terms of the balance of power -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Guys, thanks very much.
And let me update you on these votes that are actually coming in from these battleground states, including in Florida. Almost 40 percent of the precincts have now reported in Florida, and Senator Obama continues to maintain his advantage, 52 percent to 48 percent. He's up by 178,000 votes in Florida. Thirty-nine percent of the precincts have reported.
We'll walk down to North Carolina right now. Twelve percent of the precincts have reported. Senator Obama ahead here as well, 56 percent to 44 percent ahead by 166,598.
In Pennsylvania, still very, very early. The numbers are coming in slowly, but they'll pick up very, very quickly. The polls close there at 8:00 p.m. on the East Coast. Less than one percent are in. Only about 12,000 votes have been counted so far, 65 percent for Obama, 34 percent for McCain. A difference of 3,900.
In Texas, the polls won't all of it -- in the entire state won't all be closed until the top of the hour, 9:00 p.m. Eastern, but about three million votes have already been counted in Texas. Fifty-one percent so far for McCain, 49 percent for Obama, but only one percent of the precincts in Texas have been counted.
We're going to continue our coverage, but first, we have a projection.
And this is a big one, CNN now projects Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes will be going for Senator Obama. This is a projection that the Obama camp desperately wanted, and the McCain camp desperately tried to secure Pennsylvania. It's a very, very important win. Even though Pennsylvania usually goes Democratic, Senator McCain made a major effort over these past several months to try to win Pennsylvania. But unfortunately for Senator McCain, it wasn't to be.
These are live pictures you're seeing from Grant Park in Chicago. They're watching us on the big screen there, and they can see. They must be very excited. Those are Barack Obama supporters, with Pennsylvania, we project now going for Senator Obama.
This is a state that they fought fiercely over these past several weeks. Senator McCain, a few weeks ago, gave up on Michigan, not that far away. It was in Pennsylvania that he made a major, major effort going from the east part to the west part, north and south Pennsylvania, but Barack Obama will go forward, and win this state.
Candy Crowley is over at Grant Park in Chicago watching this.
Candy, they must be thrilled because this is a huge, huge projected win for Senator Obama.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: And what's really interesting is they know that. The fact of the matter is, we have talked a lot about Pennsylvania. As you mentioned, it has been a Democratic state for some time, but John McCain put so much of his last-minute time and so much of those precious dollars in to Pennsylvania, and this is a crowd that knows that. I mean, that's how closely people have been watching this race.
I have been amazed from state to state to state, how many people understood the whole process, knew which states were important, understood where John McCain had to win, where Barack Obama was doing well. I mean, the specificity of the knowledge of some of these voters has been amazing. I think we've seen that obviously in our coverage and our numbers, and I see it out here on a daily basis, how really in tune these voters are. And that's I think what you're seeing here, because Pennsylvania got the biggest applause of all, as you've been going through these states, calling them for either Obama or McCain.
And clearly, inside Obama headquarters, although they expected this win in Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania wasn't even on Obama's itinerary in the final days going up. He was totally in those Republican states, so they were pretty confident about Pennsylvania, but this just obviously reinforces that confidence, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, Candy, stand by. I want to go out to -- I want to show our viewers first of all Times Square. We've got cameras there. A lot of folks have gathered in Times Square here in New York. They're watching the CNN monitors there. There you could see them.
They see themselves on television so they're obviously excited, but a huge crowd has gathered at Times Square. The Obama supporters there are no doubt very excited that we have now projected Pennsylvania going for Senator Barack Obama.
Let's get some feedback on how the McCain campaign might be reacting to all of this. Dana Bash is over at the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix, Arizona.
We can't stress how important Pennsylvania was seen by both of these campaigns, Dana. Walk us through this loss for the McCain campaign, what it might mean.
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It means a lot. It is a big loss, and Candy just laid it out from the Obama campaign's point of view. But from John McCain's point of view, we spent every -- both days of the last weekend there. He was there several days last week. He deployed his running mate, Sarah Palin, to that state, because they particularly, in the last couple of weeks, put everything into trying to turn that blue state, the state that has been blue for 20 years red.
They knew it was an uphill climb. Aides have said over the past week or so that their internal numbers did see that it was closing a little bit. Public polling I think did reflect that as well.
But look, I mean I just got reaction from somebody who was here when we got the news and told them. They said the reality is they're not that surprised and now what they're doing is they're focusing on the state of Virginia.
McCain aides here tell me that that is really the next thing to watch. To be honest, to see how early this thing is going to be called and perhaps how early we're going to see John McCain come out.
BLITZER: Now, we're going to watch it closely. You're at the Arizona Biltmore Hotel and at some point later tonight, Dana, we'll be hearing from Senator McCain there just as we'll be hearing from Senator Obama at Grant Park in Chicago.
A bunch of states are getting ready to close their polls at the top of the hour. We'll update you on what we know. Stay with us. CNN.com, you can see all the results coming in live. Our coverage continues after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Election night in America right now. Take a look at this, Anderson. You can see the map behind us. We've projected so far 102 electoral votes for Senator Obama, 34 for Senator McCain. Pennsylvania, that's the big one just now.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: We just projected Barack Obama the winner in Pennsylvania, devastating for the McCain campaign. All along they have said they have to win in Pennsylvania.
Let's talk to our panel a little bit to find out what they think all of these means.
Gloria Borger, for Barack Obama, Pennsylvania was a turning point in the primaries.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, Pennsylvania has been a very, very important state to him. In the primaries, which he lost to Hillary Clinton, when you talk to the Obama people, though, they said, look, we got together after that moment when we lost.
A couple of top aides went to Obama's house that evening. He decided to take ownership of the campaign. After the loss in Pennsylvania, they started holding nightly conference calls with top advisers, which Obama runs. Up until, you know, yesterday for five or ten minutes each night, they understood that loss in Pennsylvania. They understood how Hillary Clinton beat them in Pennsylvania, and they knew they had a lot of ground to cover there.
COOPER: I understand (ph) this is now tonight it's a win for Obama. Is there still a path forward for John McCain?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hard to see. Well, I think we know two things now, Anderson. One is that victory is almost within the grasp for Barack Obama. We'll have to wait a little more. But I think it's also very interesting what John King has been reporting on the county by county and how many instances Orlando being the most important, that Obama is doing so much better than John Kerry did four years ago, and McCain is doing worse than Bush. That suggests this could be a very big night for Obama. Not just a win, but a very big win. We need more information.
COOPER: Bill Bennett, do you see a path forward for John McCain?
BILL BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Not much, extremely difficult. If I heard correctly, CNN has called both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. That really closes off a lot and given what John King is saying about these counties in Florida, very difficult to do it from here.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: And from a Democratic National Convention, a white male labor leader pulled me aside and he said that we are going to our members and saying, look, African- Americans have been behind us, supporting our candidates, and we're going to get in the face of our fellow brothers and say, we're going to back this Democrat, and he's an African-American.
For them to send 15,000 labor members into that state, for them to call them, and anybody who was wishy-washy, who will send somebody directly to their home, they understood between the strategy of the Obama campaign and the union support. They needed to confront what they thought was a serious problem, and that is ambivalence about voting for Obama. Great strategy and, you know, I think concert between their strategy and union could certainly pay it off with this victory. JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Remember how much time we spent discussing whether Hillary Clinton's voters would back Barack Obama?
BORGER: Right. Exactly.
TOOBIN: We saw the polls.
COOPER: That was like three years ago we were talking about that.
(LAUGHTER)
TOOBIN: But I mean, we saw polls that said half of them wouldn't vote for Barack Obama, and we are going to see close to 100 percent of Hillary Clinton's voters, and part of that is due to Hillary Clinton, who has campaigned like an absolute soldier for Barack Obama. And I think that is a significant message tonight, too.
BORGER: But even if he's going to win those rural voters over that he lost to Hillary Clinton.
COOPER: I want to bring back in our other panelists over here.
James Carville, what do you see on the map right now? What are you looking at? Do you see a path forward for John McCain tonight?
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: No. Obviously there's not a path that he can win. I'm looking at these Virginia returns and I can't, you know, I don't have a conclusion to draw it out. I think the Kentucky Senate is going to be very difficult for the Democrats to win. I think --
COOPER: Mitch McConnell versus Bruce Lunsford?
CARVILLE: Right. I think Mitch McConnell is looking pretty good now because of the Eastern Time Zone and the first and second congressional district is in the Western Time Zone. It's more a Republican district.
COOPER: Last night (INAUDIBLE) for that, it was 50/50.
CARVILLE: Right. But you have to -- my sense is in talking to people on the ground in Kentucky that the Democrat would have to do better than 50/50. The state has two separate time zones. That will be doing a little bit better. A lot of --
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: -- hold on to his seat, does that deny the Democrats from being able to reach 60 seats?
CARVILLE: Georgia becomes very much in play, and people from Georgia tell me that Martin is outperforming typical democratic numbers. It could be a runoff. It could be faced with a situation, I'm not saying this for sure. COOPER: As an independent candidate?
CARVILLE: As an independent candidate in Georgia has a runoff provision if you don't get to 49 percent, you have an election --
COOPER: So we may not know until I think December 2nd is the runoff.
CARVILLE: That's correct. That's a possible scenario here. I don't want to say it's likely but it's very possible. And, like Columbia County, other places, people are telling me that Martin is running pretty good for a Democrat.
ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: But very similar to what happened actually last election in your home state of Louisiana. When George Bush won, there was a runoff there, and they basically voted for a Democrat to keep a check on the Republican president, George Bush.
You know, a month from now, Barack Obama won't be on the ballot, might not be as advantageous for a Democrat. It may actually be the -- it actually augurs well for the Republican, I think, in that situation.
COOPER: Paul?
PAUL BEGALA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I want to come back to Pennsylvania for a minute. This is a state --
COOPER: I knew you would.
BEGALA: I know, I love that state. I've done a lot of work there.
Hillary won by 10 points. She crushed Barack there. This is where he made the biggest gaffe, the only gaffe of the campaign where he said people cling to their guns and they're bitter and their religion, right?
The fact is -- this is where McCain made his last stand. This was his Alamo and the same sort of bloody results that the Texans found. I did learn that today -- when Barack played -- Senator Obama played his traditional good luck basketball game, one of the people playing with him, a former power forward from Scranton prep class of 1978, Bob Casey, the senator from Pennsylvania, who endorsed Obama early and played a big role in Obama carrying the state there.
COOPER: I'm told we have a projection to make, and no doubt we're going to talk about it in a moment -- Wolf.
BLITZER: We project right now there will be a new senator from the state of North Carolina, and that would be Kay Hagan, defeating Elizabeth Dole, the incumbent Republican. This has been a fiercely fought battle in North Carolina. But Kay Hagan, a long-time Democratic legislator in the state, in the state of North Carolina, going forward and defeating Elizabeth Dole, a former cabinet secretary, the wife of Bob Dole.
John King and Campbell, you're there. A huge, huge loss for the Republicans, another Democratic pickup in the U.S. Senate.
BROWN: And you said it, Wolf, this is a race that got very ugly at the end, especially Elizabeth Dole running an ad against Kay Hagan accusing her of godlessness. Lawsuits were filed. But here it looks like it wasn't even close at least toward the end.
KING: A pickup for the Democrats in a state to remember. John Edwards was the Democratic vice presidential nominee four years ago. He couldn't win his own Senate seat here. He left the Senate because he couldn't keep his own seat there.
The Democrats are picking up this seat. This seat, before Elizabeth Dole was held by Jesse Helms. This seat is now in Democratic hands. And we'll go back to Wolf. But you look at these blue counties, she is even outperforming Barack Obama, Kay Hagan is in some of these key counties, she's running a very strong race tonight, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right. Thanks very much.
Five minutes and 20 seconds to go until the top of the hour. And more states are closing, 15 states with a total of 159 electoral votes. We will have projections after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: CNN is ready to make another projection right now. In the state of Alabama, we project that John McCain will carry Alabama. They closed almost an hour or so ago. Only one percent of the vote is actually in.
Obama slightly ahead right now, but that's only one percent, very early. But based on a lot of information that we're getting right now, including the exit polls, Alabama and its nine electoral votes will go for John McCain. That's something that was fully expected, by the way. That's not a huge surprise.
We're going to be making some more projections right at the top of the hour, because at the top of the hour, 15 states will be closing, including they have 159 electoral votes. You can see in a minute from now, they'll be closing in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York State, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, the second largest state to Wisconsin, and Wyoming, all of these states.
And we're going to watch very closely to see what happens in these states, because some of these states could be indicative of a trend that could be emerging in the course of this night. I'm especially interested in finding out what's going on in the state, for example, like Minnesota, which has sort of been up for grabs over these past several weeks. We'll watch that as well, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and a few others. Some of these states are not expected to be any great surprise. As we watch what's going on, we want to remind our viewers that this is a night that not only the White House will be determined, but the balance of power in the United States Congress, the House and the Senate. Let's pause.
