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American Morning

Top British Officer Resigns; Pirates Hold U.S. Captain Hostage; Obama to Tackle Immigration; New Plans to Predict Disasters; Obama's Must-See TV

Aired April 09, 2009 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: That's right. Good morning, and thanks for being with us on this Thursday, April 9th. I'm Kiran Chetry, along with T.J. Holmes in for John Roberts. And we're of course following the latest on the seas off the coast of Somalia.

T.J. HOLMES, CNN CO-ANCHOR: Yes, that story continues to develop and change minute by minute. We're covering a lot of stuff this morning. But here are the big stories we are breaking down for you in the next 15 minutes. The U.S. captain of a ship attacked by those Somali pirates still being held hostage. A Navy warship now on the scene. The president following every development. We are following every development here as well. This morning, we have got our people in place in a number of areas from Washington to exclusive access to the Navy's headquarters in Bahrain.

Also, you'll hear from the father of Shane Murphy. Now, Shane Murphy is the second in command on the Maersk Alabama. Now, as far as we know, Murphy's still in control of that ship right now. Murphy's father happens to be an instructor at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy and trains sailors to do what? Take on pirates. We'll ask him when he last spoke to his son when he joins us live here momentarily.

Also Britain's top anti-terrorism officer resigned earlier this morning after a big oops. He accidentally compromised a terror investigation. How? British police say he exposed a sensitive document listing suspects linked to al Qaeda operatives before they were arrested. Police responded quickly when they discovered the mistake executing raids involving hundreds of officers, 12 men were arrested at eight different locations.

CHETRY: And back to our breaking news in a story that's unfolding as we speak. The world is waiting for word on the dangerous, potentially deadly standoff involving pirates holding an American hostage. His name, Captain Richard Phillips and as we speak he's pinned inside of a lifeboat surrounded by four armed Somali pirates.

Now, Phillips was taken after the pirates hijacked his ship in the lawless waters off Somalia. His crew used brute force to reclaim their boat; the pirates though taking Phillips as their lone remaining bargaining chip. This morning Phillips' family though has reason to hope. An American destroyer is on the scene.

A Navy surveillance plane has also been flying overhead. Where they are right now, it is 1:00 p.m. And we're covering this story from every angle. We start with Barbara Starr. She's the only reporter live at the Navy's headquarters in Bahrain and Barbara give us more right now about what you know on the mission of this destroyer that's now on the scene.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well Kiran, we are indeed outside Navy (INAUDIBLE) headquarters here in the Persian Gulf in Bahrain. In the building behind me Navy commanders working the situation around the clock. The Bainbridge, the warship is on station but make no mistake nobody is really looking at any kind of assault operation at this point. The Bainbridge will have three key missions.

It will mainly conduct surveillance. Trying to make sure that U.S. mariner, that captain is not moved by the pirates back in to Somalia. They will stay there and watch that. They will also try and make sure no more pirates, obviously, move onboard the cargo ship, the Maersk Alabama. Pirates are all over these waters and the warship will be a deterrent to any more pirates coming onboard and most importantly perhaps basic communications between the crews still onboard the Maersk Alabama and the U.S. Navy. A spokesman for the shipping company says the crew has already been in touch with the Navy ship -- Kiran.

CHETRY: All right, and we're also learning the Navy did sound the alarm about pirates in recent days. What was the recommendation or what were they saying about that?

STARR: Right, absolutely right, Kiran. Just a few days ago, the Navy here issued an updated warning to commercial shipping to stay as far away from Somalia as they possibly could when they transmitted these waters. This attack happened some 350 miles offshore. It's the latest indication of the growing capability of these pirates to move out to sea and to try and grab these cargo ships. It's becoming a shipping crisis at this point -- Kiran.

CHETRY: It sure is and of course you're there in Bahrain, so if any news breaks or we hear anything from the Navy, we're sure to get it from you first and so we'll check in with you throughout the morning. Barbara Starr thanks so much.

Meanwhile, the Navy's response to the hijacking of this American ship is both historic, but also high-tech. Here's more now in "A.M. Extra" (ph). This is the first time an American-flagged ship has been captured in African waters since 1804. That's when Thomas Jefferson was president. The Navy ship at the center of this morning's response is a heavily armed destroyer. In addition to its weaponry, it also carries a 40-pound drone known as the Scan Eagle. That drone will be useful if this standoff stretches into the night so it can hover over the target for 20 hours and actually feed back night vision video.

And the Navy not only -- not the only group monitoring the event around the world, the Obama administration keeping an eye on things from the White House situation room. Also Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is dialed into this story. She addressed the hijacking and the bigger problem of piracy along critical shipping routes. Here's what she said. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, SECRETARY OF STATE: We're deeply concerned and we're following it very closely. You know specifically we are now focused on this particular act of piracy and the seizure of a ship that carries 21 American citizens. More generally we think the world must come together to end the scourge of piracy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: And as for piracy off of the coast of Africa, the numbers certainly speak for themselves. Since it started this year, more than 60 ships have been hijacked. Pirates still hold at least 16 of those boats right now.

HOLMES: All right, we sent our Jason Carroll to cover one story. He called us back and said he had a much bigger story. He was working a story at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy when all this hijacking happened. One of the instructors at that school, the father of Shane Murphy, who happens to be the second-in-command aboard, yes the Maersk Alabama -- Jason talked exclusively with Murphy's dad.

Also got an extensive look at the one of a kind class he teaches training sailors to fight back against piracy. It's a side of this story you will only see on CNN and our Jason Carroll live on Cape Cod this morning at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy in Buzzards Bay (ph). Jason, I'm not sure if ironic even begins to tell this story.

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well the timing was definitely good on our part. I will tell you that. Well let me get to what's happening here. Joe Murphy teaches a controversial course here at the Maritime Academy, very controversial. A lot of people say it's not the most effective way to fight pirates. But here at the academy, T.J., they say it's a last resort and they want their cadets prepared for any situation.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CARROLL (voice-over): Cadets at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy are taking aim at pirates thousands of miles away. Part of a pilot program the only one of its kind at a U.S. Maritime Academy designed to train them how to use guns against pirates when all else fails.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Training and learning the safety of the weapons is certainly important.

CAPT. BRAD LIMA, ACADEMIC DEAN, MASS. MARITIME ACADEMY: Should a situation rise that they need to know more about firearms, then they've had that training here.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Load five rounds.

CARROLL: Brad Lima taught the course Wednesday because Joe Murphy, the man who was supposed to teach, learned his son, Shane, a 2001 graduate of the academy, had been taken hostage by pirates. CAPT. JOSEPH MURPHY, FATHER OF SHANE MURPHY: This is a classic example of Murphy's Law where I teach the course, my son goes to sea and he gets captured.

CARROLL: Shane Murphy is the chief officer onboard the Maersk Alabama, the second in command. He managed to call his wife saying he was alive and that the crew had managed to take down one of the pirates.

SERENA MURPHY, HUSBAND ON HIJACKED SHIP: Not he personally, but they had taken down one of the pirates. I said have you -- have they tortured you or hurt you? He said they hadn't had any water at all to drink since they've been captured and nothing to eat.

J. MURPHY: It was by sheer force. They have no weapons, so it must have been obviously just overpower them.

CARROLL: Murphy says his son was well trained at the academy. His vessel outmaneuvered the pirates for several hours before getting caught. Most maritime academies teach cadets how to escape from pirates so they don't have to engage them. Water hoses and sound devices are also used to fend them off, but as pirates become more aggressive and better armed, officials at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy want the cadets graduating knowing how to arm and defend themselves.

ADMIRAL RICHARD GURNON, PRES., MASS. MARITIME ACADEMY: Although many merchant ships are unarmed, we felt that it was a safety factor to have our graduates familiar with small arms.

CARROLL: One maritime expert says teaching cadets to arm themselves is not the solution.

MIKE LEE, ASST. V.P. MCROBERTS MARITIME SECURITIES: I believe in man's inherent right to defend themselves, but I think in this case it's not the right course of action. I believe it will further escalate the violence.

CARROLL: But Joe Murphy could not disagree more. He still says it's an important training tool considering last year 165 vessels were attacked off the coast of Somalia and 43 were seized by pirates.

J. MURPHY: This is a wake-up call for America. These people are organized -- members of organized crime.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CARROLL: The head of security for Maersk said just last month, T.J., that he did not favor having armed guards aboard vessels mainly for liability reasons. Even so, the gun course is continuing here at the academy. It has been well received by the cadets as well as the administration and they plan on continuing it next semester -- back to you.

HOLMES: All right, Jason Carroll for us and a lot of what ifs now. We know there are 20 members on this crew but also just four pirates, so a lot of people are questioning what would have happened if they had been armed. Jason Carroll, thank you so much for that.

And like we mentioned, coming up here on AMERICAN MORNING, we'll be talking live with Joe Murphy, the father and instructor at -- of Maersk Alabama crewman Shane Murphy. That's coming your way about five minutes live.

CHETRY: And meanwhile, we've gotten a lot of callers about this situation to our a.m. hotline, 877-MY-AMFIX -- a lot of people wondering why militaries around the world aren't doing more to stop the piracy. Here's a sample of what you're saying.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

QUESTION: I cannot see how pirates are taking over the coast of Somalia. Taking our people? It's incredible. What is the Air Force -- what is the Navy doing?

QUESTION: I'm calling about the pirates overtaking these ships. I think we should shoot them down. After we did that to a few of these pirate ships, it would stop.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: All right, we'd like to hear more from you. Call our show hot line, 877-MY-AMFIX or leave us a question that you'd like us to ask one of our guests. And of course there could be major developments with this story any minute, so you'll want to keep it right here on AMERICAN MORNING. We have the global resources of CNN ready to bring you breaking news as it happens.

Right now we have people following this story at the Pentagon, at the White House, at the shipping company's headquarters in Virginia and we also have teams on the ground in Africa and the Middle East. Of course we just talked to Barbara Starr from Bahrain. So you'll want to stay with us and you won't miss anything.

Coming up next, we're live with the man who may be watching this story more closely than anyone else, Joe Murphy. You just saw him in Jason Carroll's piece. His son is the second in command on the ship that was hijacked by the pirates. He has been in communication with his son throughout this ordeal. He's standing by. We're going to talk to him in two minutes. We'll get the latest developments from him as well.

You're watching the Most News in the Morning.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN Breaking News.

CHETRY: It's 13 minutes past the hour, and we are following all of the latest developments on this piracy situation off of the coast of Somalia. Right now, Somali pirates holding an American captain hostage on the seas over there in the Horn of Africa. A U.S. Navy destroyer is on the scene right now charged with keeping watch. Also the situation is continuing to change minute-by-minute after the pirates scaled this freighter yesterday. The crew managed to kick this band of thugs off of the ship, ended up taking one pirate hostage. They were trying to trade him for their captain. They tied him up, held him for 12 hours, returned him. It was supposed to be an exchange for their captain.

Of course the pirates reneged and they are still holding the captain now in another smaller lifeboat just not too far from where the actual ship is. The ship's second-in-command, meantime, Captain Shane Murphy has been in contact with his family, as well as the captain's family. And joining us now is Shane's dad, Captain Joseph Murphy who actually teaches the course that we just showed you about on piracy and security at the maritime area there in the Massachusetts Maritime Academy. Thanks for joining us this morning, Captain.

J. MURPHY: Good morning, Kiran. Thank you.

CHETRY: Give us an update about the last time you had a chance to speak to your son, Shane.

J. MURPHY: Well the last communication we had from the ship was actually yesterday. We haven't heard any word from Shane since yesterday afternoon. He did tell us that he was safe and that the crew was safe and that of course the concern is now focused on Captain Phillips who's in a lifeboat with the four pirates.

CHETRY: Yes, and can you explain a little bit about -- I understand as we had said just a few moments ago that the crew kept one of the pirates. They were going to try to have some sort of exchange take place and of course the Somali pirates reneged on that. What are -- what is the situation? What is the situation in that lifeboat? How long can they stay and in what condition is the captain likely in?

J. MURPHY: I would suspect that the captain is in very good condition. The lifeboat is only a 28-foot boat. It's got emergency rations for about 10 days for its capacity. It's a very uncomfortable place. It's very small. There are no toilet facilities or anything like that.

The captain has a VHF radio and I'm sure that he's in voice communication with the ship itself. The problem is, of course, that the radio is going to -- the battery is going to die. And I'm not really sure how they'll continue communication after that.

CHETRY: Oh, great. Can you give us some sort of sense on how the crew was able to overtake the pirates because they were not armed. They did not have guns with them. They said that they finally had to -- they first tried to just get away, tried to move the ship away and these pirates were apparently firing their (INAUDIBLE) rifles and then after they were able to board the ship. How did that takeover take place from this brave heroic crew?

J. MURPHY: Well we really don't know and really only supposition. They complied -- completed all of the emergency procedures that they've been trained to deal with. They've all been trained in tactics as well. I'm sure that they cornered this individual and put him in a position where he couldn't fire the weapon and they overpowered him.

CHETRY: Yes, just amazing, and certainly a brave act. You teach a course at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy about security, about piracy. Of course, we've all seen this escalating situation that's taking place in that area, this Horn of Africa shipping route. What do you teach them? What do you teach people who may be faced with the situation on what to do to defend themselves?

J. MURPHY: Well, it's all defensive procedures. There's no offensive procedure at all. The best battle is the battle never fought. Unfortunately when pirates do get up on to the ship, there are a few options available to the crew. They are taught basic (ph) measures to prevent them from coming onboard, the checks and the vigilance that's required to stand an appropriate watch for prior warning before they actually get to the ship.

In this case, of course, they arrived in -- under the cover of darkness and were able to board the ship unfortunately. And this was the crew's response. This is how they chose -- they saw the opportunity and they took it.

CHETRY: It's wonderful that that happened. It's unfortunate as we understand it that the captain is still being held by these pirates right now, but another question a lot of people are asking, why aren't they armed? Why aren't the crews on these vessels armed or why doesn't the shipping company itself have armed guards or some sort of security knowing how dangerous this region is?

J. MURPHY: Well some companies do actually have armed guard forces onboard. And they do it in high-risk areas. Unfortunately, the pirates have expanded that area. This area is huge and there's just no way that they're going to put armed forces onboard. There is a certain consideration about the use of weapons on ships.

Some people believe in it. Other people don't. If you're going to use weapons, you have to be well trained and you have to practice what they use. So we see many people not use them.

CHETRY: All right, and before we leave you, as we know, there's some comfort in knowing that this U.S. Navy destroyer is right there making sure this captain cannot be brought back to the pirate's mother ship, also making sure that no other pirates can board the Maersk Alabama. But how do you see this ending? How do you see this situation developing? What should we be looking for in terms of when they're going to release this captain?

J. MURPHY: Well I think what's going to happen is and very quickly, they've been boxed in. They've removed 19 other crew members into a safe environment. They're in a lifeboat. You know that's -- be careful what you ask for, you just might get it. They have few options.

They don't have enough fuel to go anywhere and they're not going to be allowed to move. So they're going to sit in that lifeboat until they run out of water and food and they're going to have to make a decision. And if the weather should become bad, there's going to be a considerable amount of seasickness as well. So, we'll see what happens.

CHETRY: All right, well we certainly are praying for the best outcome possible and we're so glad that the other 19 are OK. We're just hoping that the captain as well can get rescued soon. Thanks so much for joining us, Captain Joseph Murphy, great to talk to you this morning.

J. MURPHY: Thank you.

HOLMES: And we will never be too far away from that situation, that hostage situation at sea as it unfolds minute-by-minute. The Navy, as you heard there, is on hand. So what message is that sending to the pirates this time around even though the Navy right now it appears is not going to be intervening? We'll be asking a former Navy SEAL just ahead.

Also hundreds of British police arrest 12 men they say have ties to al Qaeda, but the whole case was almost blown by one officer's mistake. We're breaking this story down. Twenty after the hour here on this AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Well it's about 6:23 here on this AMERICAN MORNING. Welcome back.

Turning to a developing story now in Britain -- the country's top anti-terrorism officer has resigned after nearly blowing a case around 12 terror suspects -- has to do with that picture taken right there. We'll explain in a second, but hundreds of officers were then forced to rush one of Britain's biggest terrorism raids in decades. Those arrests went down north of the British capital -- our senior international correspondent Nic Robertson breaking this case down from the scene.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This was the...

(AUDIO GAP)

ROBERTSON: ... blew it. Assistant Commissioner Bob Quick (ph) left top secret files on pending terror arrests in full view as he arrived in Downing Street for a meeting with the prime minister. Soon after, 150 miles north, police forced to bring the raids forward, sweeping on a university in Liverpool. This cell phone video was shot by a student from the university's library showing two of the arrests.

Several houses and an Internet cafe in the Manchester area were also raided, police detaining 12 people all together in the biggest counterterrorism raid in years. A security source with knowledge of the operation said those arrested had ties to al Qaeda's core and told CNN several of them were Pakistanis in Britain on student visas. Despite a blunder, praise for the police.

JACQUI SMITH, BRITISH HOME SECRETARY: They're to be commended for the professional way that they carried out this action. The action was an operation decision for the police and the security services, the prime minister and I were kept fully up-to-date with developments.

ROBERTSON: Eyewitnesses say they saw dozens of police, some armed, swarm in for the arrests.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE) I got a very good look at. He was wearing an orange (INAUDIBLE) thick coat, he had a beard. (INAUDIBLE)

CRAIG AHMED, WITNESS: (INAUDIBLE) lying face down then one by one, he arrested (INAUDIBLE).

ROBERTSON: Since the terror attacks in July 2005, British officials say they are monitoring upwards of 30 terror plots. They are hinting these arrests may have thwarted one such alleged plot.

(on camera): Assistant Commissioner Bob Quick has apologized for his blunder, admitting it was a mistake to leave such sensitive documents in open view and he deeply regrets it. His embarrassment, however, over such a sensitive operation is going to be hard to shake off.

Nic Robertson, CNN, Manchester, England.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: Well he's trying his best to shake it off. As Nic was mentioning there in that report that he filed early this morning, but the man you saw in that report, the British police top anti-terror officer, Bob Quick (ph), he did in fact hand in his resignation just a couple of hours ago.

CHETRY: Well we're following that tense situation that's unfolding at this hour; an American captain taken hostage by four armed pirates off of the coast of Somalia. How do you fight these thugs ruling the waterways? We're going to be talking to a former Navy SEAL who's been to Somalia, talked to some of these pirates and lived to tell about it. It is 26 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Twenty-nine minutes past the hour right now. Actually, it's right on the nose, 6:30 this morning in New York.

We're following right now breaking news on the tense pirate standoff on the waters off the Horn of Africa. The captain of the US- flagged cargo ship, Richard Phillips, is still adrift in a lifeboat. He's being held captive by four armed pirates. A U.S.-guided missile destroyer is on the scene right now conducting surveillance, making sure the pirates do not try to board the Maersk or go somewhere away from the immediate area with this lifeboat, with the captain onboard.

Now, earlier, I spoke to the father of the ship's second-in- command, who actually teaches a course on security and piracy at the Massachusetts Maritime Academy, and I asked him about what the situation is like right now inside of that lifeboat.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: What is the situation in that lifeboat? How long can they stay? And in what condition is the captain likely in?

CAPT. JOSEPH MURPHY, PROF AT MASS. MARITIME ACADEMY: I would suspect that the captain is in very good condition. The lifeboat is only 28-foot boat. It's got emergency rations for about 10 days for its capacity. It's a very uncomfortable place. It's very small. There's no toilet facilities or anything like that. The captain has a VHF radio and I'm sure that he's in voice communication with the ship itself.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: He said that it's only a matter of time, though, before that battery on that VHF radio dies, and so at that point he said he's not sure how that communication will continue. Captain Joseph Murphy also said that he last heard from his son and the crew on the ship yesterday. At that time, he said that they told him they were safe and that their concerns right now are focused on Captain Phillips.

President Obama announces a push to a new immigration bill with the potential to impact millions. According to the "New York Times," the president's plan includes a path for illegal immigrants to become legal. The president will reportedly speak about the issue next month with the hopes of drafting possible legislation by the fall.

And the White House reaching out Iran. The Obama administration says it will participate in direct and group talks with Teheran over its nuclear program. Iran insists the program is peaceful. U.S. officials suspect that the Islamic state is developing nuclear weapons. The State Department now says the U.S. will be at the table with Iran and five other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.

HOLMES: All right. We turn back to our top story this morning. New details breaking minute by minute. Really, a changing story every second here about the pirates still holding a U.S. captain hostage at sea. Navy is on hand now watching everything that happens.

So, what is going to happen next? Let's talk to somebody who knows a thing or two about these pirates. Has some experience covering them -- U.S Navy SEAL Kaj Larsen, the vanguard correspondent for Current TV. He joins us here now.

Thank you for being here. We know that piracy pays. So, what is it that's going to, at some point, break this cycle if every time they take a ship, they're going to get paid, why stop it? What's going to break the cycle? KAJ LARSEN, CURRENT TV REPORTER: Yes, well, that's the $50 or $100 million question, which is about the amount of money the pirates took in last year in ransom. The solution, unfortunately, is not going to be a military-centric one. Ultimately, you have to find some way to govern this ungoverned state, this lawless sanctuary that the pirates have in Somalia. That's really the only like long-term solution you're going to say to this one.

HOLMES: OK. Right there, a couple of things I want to hit on. One is that you mentioned -- can't be a military solution. And you also say you need to change the conditions there in Somalia.

Let's start with the military solution, though. Do you not think it would be some kind of deterrent and send some kind of a message to pirates if the full U.S. military would go in there and just take out, because, obviously, the military is -- got bigger guns, if you will? So, why not send a message?

LARSEN: Certainly there would be some deterrent effect. I think, in this case, the incentives are just so large. The money that they're making is so extraordinary especially by Somali standards. That would be difficult. However, in this particular situation, the goal is to solve it as quickly and as safely possible without putting the hostage be in jeopardy.

HOLMES: And the other side of that. There are just hopeless, deplorable conditions in Somalia. So, like you said, as a long-term solution there. As long as -- and, again, you know this -- it's almost celebrated in some ways, these pirates. And it's all -- I mean, it's the way to go for some of these young men -- a life of piracy looks pretty good compared to the conditions in Somalia.

LARSEN: You couldn't have said it better, T.J. You know, I've been on the ground in Somalia. One of the interesting demographic things that's happening in Somalia right now is that single Somali women are flocking to Boosaaso -- to the port town of Boosaaso, where these pirates come out of, in the hopes of marrying a pirate.

HOLMES: Wow.

LARSEN: So you can see that it really is -- the root conditions of poverty and lawlessness and civil war on the ground in Somalia really what are breeding this problem.

HOLMES: Let us talk about these companies for a moment. Is it -- is it worth the risk for them to just continue to go through the Gulf of Aden? I mean, does it cost too much to try to take another route? Again, this is a huge commercial channel here. So, is it worth it to just take the chance, pay the ransom and keep moving? It will still cost you less than if you try to go back given your supplies through another way.

LARSEN: Right. So far, that's been the model. But as these attacks increase, we've seen six in the last week alone, the cost of doing business in that area is just going to be too high. The insurance companies are going to jack up the rates of insurance, and at some point, they're not going to be able to continue without taking much more serious security measures or without finding an alternative route.

HOLMES: All right. And the last thing here. I really (ph) don't want to say this. It's a good thing here. But can something good come out of it, given that this is a long way away from the United States. This is a part of the world that most people aren't familiar with, never been to. But now, paying attention, knowing that the U.S. military is getting involved. A lot more attention getting paid to this particular incident and you have Americans involved. Do you think this will begin to draw more attention to what's happening there in the Horn of Africa and maybe more action begins to be taken by countries all over the world?

LARSEN: I think this is a clarion call to the international community that Somalia is and continues to be a failed safe. And that if we don't continue to pay attention to it, if we don't start changing the conditions on the ground there, if we don't start governing that ungoverned space, that it's going to be a breeding ground for both piracy and possibly international terrorism.

So, yes, I would hope that this situation -- that the silver lining in the cloud will be that people start paying attention to this horrific situation in the country there.

HOLMES: All right. Kaj Larsen, always good to talk to you. Again, you got some expertise on this that a lot of people just do not have. So we appreciate you spending the time with us.

LARSEN: Thanks, T.J.

CHETRY: And we're following other news this morning, too. Rescuers in central Italy now saying that the number of dead after that earthquake is at least 278. A scientist now claims that he predicted that earthquake. But can we actually predict disasters like this? We'll try to get some answers. It's 37 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. Developing in Italy, they are holding funerals now for some of the 278 victims of this week's powerful earthquake. And as the survivors still try to grasp the extent of the damage, emergency crews say they don't expect to find anymore people alive.

And this morning, amid the death and destruction, there are some new questions about claims an Italian scientists actually predicted this disaster, and whether that can even be done. Here's CNN's Dan Simon.

DAN SIMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kiran, T.J., an Italian scientist claims that he was able to predict the earthquake there weeks before it happened. Local authorities are dismissing that. It's become quite a controversy. Putting that aside, though, we wanted to look at the science. Is it possible to predict earthquakes?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SIMON (voice-over): Any time there's a major earthquake like the one this week in Italy, there is renewed speculation about whether these kinds of catastrophes can be predicted. The U.S. Geological Survey said there's a 99 percent chance a earthquake will again strike California within the next 30 years, 6.7 magnitude or greater.

The quake in Italy was a 6.3.

Thirty years -- not much help in helping communities prepare for a disaster.

Seismologist Kate Hutton says the best hope may be a warning system that would alert communities the moment an earthquake has struck.

KATE HUTTON, CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY: And we would have plenty of time to, say, stop elevators or slow down high speed trains and, you know, that kind of thing that could save lives.

SIMON: Still, researchers have looked at several ideas over the years to predict quakes, including the activity of cockroaches along fault lines, the movement of air masses and ground warping. But most have been discredited.

Some experts say satellite imagery could be one area of promise. Although earthquakes seem to strike randomly, the energy released from a quake builds up for months or years. The theory behind advanced imaging would be to sense that buildup and provide data on the likelihood of a quake.

The academic community has also been trying to come up with better building materials to withstand earthquakes, including stronger shock absorbers that could be retrofitted on aging buildings or used in new construction.

The bottom line, while technology is continually evolving, a powerful earthquake is bound to cause significant damage no matter where it happens.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SIMON: As for how California would fare during a major earthquake, there are still concerns about the infrastructure, particularly the water system. State officials recently put out a report that said if there is a major earthquake in the San Francisco Bay area that's 7.0 or more, it could wipe out the water supply for a majority of Californians for more than a year.

Kiran and T.J., back to you.

CHETRY: Dan Simon for us this morning. Thanks.

Also this morning, the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi raising some eyebrows after suggesting that people left homeless by Monday's earthquake should just think of themselves as being on a camping trip. He told the reporter that survivors have everything they need including medical care and hot food, adding that their current accommodations are temporary and that they should, quote, "View it like a camping weekend."

HOLMES: I'm sure he wished he hadn't said that.

CHETRY: Yes. It's the latest of his gaffes, I guess you could say. He also raised eyebrows at the G-20 Summit as well.

HOLMES: In trying to handle a crisis. Berlusconi. All right. What's next?

But we will continue to follow our breaking news. The dangerous hostage situation unfolding right now off the Coast of Somalia.

U.S. merchant captain being held hostage right now in a lifeboat by pirates -- armed pirates. So what happens now? We're talking to a former FBI hostage negotiator. He's coming up next, right now -- 6:43.

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ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

CHETRY: Forty-six minute past the hour here in New York. It's 1:46 in the afternoon off the waters of Somalia. And if you're just waking up this morning, we want to update you on this story that's developing minute by minute.

Somali pirates are holding a U.S. cargo ship captain hostage in a lifeboat. A U.S. Navy destroyer is right in that area. And there's still a tense situation unfolding.

Joining us on the phone now is Christopher Voss. He's a former FBI hostage negotiator.

Christopher, thanks for joining us this morning.

CHRIS VOSS, FORMER FBI NEGOTIATOR (via telephone): Good morning, Kiran. My pleasure.

CHETRY: All right. So the situation basically is there are four pirates. They are in the lifeboat of the Maersk Alabama. It was supposed to be an equal trade, right? They had one of the pirates still on the ship after the crew was able to overtake their ship from the pirates. And the pirates had their captain. It was supposed to be an exchange. Obviously, they gave the pirates back their hostage, but the pirates did not do the same. So where are we right now in any potential negotiation?

VOSS: Well, they're still trying to get the pirates to come to an actual agreement. Obviously, the pirates clearly feel that they still have the upper hand. That's the only reason that they reneged on the agreement before.

I mean, they consider themselves to be out of the reach of any law enforcement, any government. And they will continue to hold the captain as long as they possibly can, to get as much as they possibly can for him. And they're still feeling this out themselves because this was not their original plan. So there's sort of (INAUDIBLE) that goes along. They weren't really prepared for this.

CHETRY: Right. And the other question, though, is -- I mean, when they came aboard the ship, the reason they were able to do it in the first place is because they were armed, right? Reportedly with this collection of (INAUDIBLE) rifles. After the U.S. crew on that ship was able to overtake the pirates -- I mean, do they still have those weapons in your opinion? Or are they now without arms on this lifeboat?

VOSS: Well, yes. They were still very clearly had some weapons. They would never have given up their arms when they were on the ship. So they would still be armed.

CHETRY: All right. So who would be working these negotiations right now with the pirates?

VOSS: Well, the crew from the ship had the initial contact with them. As I understand, the captain still had a radio so they would have direct radio to radio contact from the original crew on the ship and the captain, assuming that one or more of the pirates speaks English.

CHETRY: Right. But in terms of what they're after, and as we've seen if any of the prior attacks or any indication they're after money, who is going to be providing that? You know, who are they negotiating with about getting money drop down to them or however that happens in this situation?

VOSS: Well, that's kind of hard for them now, because, obviously, in their original plan, they were used to the delivery of money onto a ship that they still held. Now they're on a very small ship, and that changes the delivery options entirely. I'm sure what they would really like to do is get back to shore with the captain and continue the negotiations for as long as they can.

CHETRY: All right. And likely a favorable outcome or not in your opinion with just what you've seen over the past several hours?

VOSS: Yes, yes. That's correct.

CHETRY: You do think it's going to be a favorable outcome?

VOSS: Well, yes. There's no reason for the pirates to cash in the only bargaining chip they have right now. Secondly, they have a reputation for taking relatively good care of their hostages. And thirdly, if they don't take care of them, they don't get paid.

CHETRY: All right. Christopher Voss, former FBI hostage negotiator. Thanks for weighing in this morning.

Giving us some perspective on what exactly is going on right now. Again, he said, you know, their whole entire plan changed because the American crew is able to overtake the pirates on the actual ship.

HOLMES: And they did that without guns. We've been talking about this morning the issue of arming those guys on the ships. They don't want to do it. But these guys were able to take care of business without them.

So we're not going to be too far away from this breaking news story all morning. Also watching tons of other stories happening this morning, including one that's making a lot of the most popular lists online, including the president.

What do you think the president watches? He's a busy man. He has to watch some TV. We know he likes sports, but he has some favorite TV shows. You might be surprised what he must -- what he most watch, actually. You have that answer coming up next. 6:50 here on this AMERICAN MORNING.

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HOLMES: Good morning, Alina. How are you this morning? Alina is here because she's going to tell us about the president's DVR. We know what's on his iPod. A few things we've heard about. But he has some favorite TV shows he watches as well. Pretty fascinated by this stuff.

ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, yes. His close friend Valerie Jarrett says sports, sports, sports, you know. But there's more. It seems President Obama can't live without his entourage. No we're not talking about David Axelrod, Valerie Jarrett and Rahm Emanuel, but the hit TV show on HBO. A lot of you know this.

This is according to Politico.com, by the way, which has a round up of the president's favorite shows. "Entourage" many people know about a rising young actor chasing an improbable dream surrounded by his hometown friends. Sounds familiar? Well, the show also features a maniacal Hollywood agent Ari Gold played by Jeremy Piven. And that character Ari Gold is based on real-life superagent Ari Emanuel, Rahm Emanuel's younger brother.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEREMY PIVEN, AS ARI GOLD, "ENTOURAGE": Jay, is this a happy call or a sad one?

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: I'm proud to say it's a happy one, Ari. Congratulations, I have decided to go with you.

PIVEN: Excellent news. Excellent news, Jay.

UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: Yes, I certainly hope so, Ari.

PIVEN: You know what, I'm going to have Lloyd send over the papers ASAP.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHO: I actually saw that. I remember that.

Politico reports the president is such a fan of "Entourage" that during the campaign when there was a Sunday night conference call scheduled to start 15 minutes before the end of the show, a top aid told the president, "Just be late, we're going to start without you." And guess what, they did.

Now as for other presidential must-see TV, he's a big fan of sports, of course, including NBA and NCAA basketball. He even watched the game onboard Air Force One last month when he was traveling back from California. Now for years, President Obama has been a big fan of ESPN's "SportsCenter." A lot of people know that. When he can, that's where he goes to see the highlights.

Now it seems Malia and Sasha, the first daughters, also have a bit of an influence. When the president is with his daughters, "SpongeBob SquarePants" and "Hannah Montana" on the tube. Sound familiar, Kiran?

One thing the president does not spend a lot of time watching, though, guys, 24-hour cable news.

When you are the biggest story in the world, you don't need to watch the news, apparently.

CHETRY: You could say that. I'm sure they're still watching.

HOLMES: Of course. They are watching right now, Alina.

Alina Cho, thank you so much for that.

We do have to continue on with our breaking news. Tense pirates standoff off the Coast of Africa, developing minute-by-minute. We are standing by for a news conference with the CEO of the shipping company that's been attacked by pirates. We will bring that to you live when it happens. Stay with us.

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