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Iranian Anger Escalates
Aired June 22, 2009 - 15:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Coming at you now, a young woman becomes the face of Iran's election violence. We share her story and the worldwide reaction to her death.
Plus, the all-important oil card. Iran holds it for now because they control the traffic flow. Is that keeping President Obama quiet?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We lost our family dog. We did it at the hands of sheriff deputies bursting through our front door, rifles blazing.
VELSHI: Just one problem. That was the mayor's house He wasn't involved in a drug bust, yet officers say they were perfectly justified. What happens now?
It's Monday, June 22. Rick Sanchez is off. I'm in the hot seat. Your national conversation starts now.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VELSHI: And hello from the world headquarters of CNN. This is your hour of interactive news. It's our conversation, and it's your turn to get involved.
For one whole week, you have got me, Ali Velshi, instead of Rick Sanchez. We're social networking for two today, taking your comments and feedback on Rick's and my Twitter, Facebook and MySpace accounts.
So, let's get started. Where to begin? Well, Iran.
The newest pictures emerging from Tehran are not much different than those we have seen over the past week. This is amateur video, shot tonight. It's from a cell phone. It's not top quality, but it shows you what the Iranian government definitely does not want you to see, a week-plus of people with their voices raised, their angry faces seen.
And there is something more today. Something awful happened that may go down as the defining moment of the Iranian election crisis. We have to be careful here, because we are going to show you some video that will shock you. It will disturb you. It has triggered a supernova of anger around the world.
Octavia Nasr is with me. She's a senior editor for Mideast affairs here at CNN. Octavia, we have got a piece of a speech now first. We're ease everybody into this, because this is a big deal. We have a piece of a speech from the former Iranian crown prince. And, in the speech, he gets very, very emotional. He actually breaks down when he mentions the name Neda.
OCTAVIA NASR, CNN SENIOR EDITOR FOR ARAB AFFAIRS: Right.
VELSHI: What is that about?
NASR: Well, first of all, Reza Shah Pahlavi is the son of the former shah of Iran. His father was overthrown in 1979 by what is known now as the Islamic Revolution, the people who run Iran today.
So, he lives here in the U.S. with his family. His main job is to go around speaking against the Iranian government, very important to put that in perspective. He did speak today. He talked about the -- what -- what he's calling this democratic movement that was born out of election results in Iran.
He had some very interesting things to say about how the West can play to help Iranians, without looking like they're meddling or interfering. And he broke down, as you said, when he spoke about Neda. And we will be hearing Neda's story later, but let's listen to him and see what he had to say today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REZA PAHLAVI, FORMER CROWN PRINCE OF IRAN: No one, no one will benefit from closing his or her eyes to knives and cables cutting into faces, of mouths of our young and old, or from bullets piercing our beloved Neda...
(APPLAUSE)
PAHLAVI: ... whose only sin was the quest for freedom, no one but tyrants and their thugs.
Do not let them define what is disrespect for sovereignty, what is interference in others' affairs.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Now, let's just show our viewers, let's show all of you what we are talking about. It's a report from Octavia.
Social networking sites, we know, Facebook, Twitter, they have helped spread images and video of the protests in Iran. We have seen the protests are young and old, men and women. But the story of one woman protester in particular has deeply shocked Iran and the world.
But here's a warning. This report contains extremely graphic video that is disturbing. In addition, parents may decide that it's inappropriate for children.
Are you ready now? Let's roll it. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NASR: Her name is Neda, the facts surrounding her life and her death difficult to verify. She appears to have been a young student who joined thousands of her countrymen to voice her disapproval of Iran's election results.
Eyewitnesses say Basij militiamen hiding on a building roof top shot Neda in her chest, silencing her forever.
A man who appears to be her father desperately calling on her to open her eyes, a stranger begging her to stay awake. "Don't be afraid. Don't be afraid, Neda," the man says. But Neda doesn't respond. She dies right there on the streets, another protester capturing her last moments on a cell phone camera.
And just like that, Neda, who came to the square thinking she's one voice among thousands, turned into the voice of an entire opposition movement. Neda, which means, "the calling," is now on millions of flips across the globe, on the Internet, in specially- designed avatars, a young life cut down in its prime, one woman's gripping story speaking volumes, a grim reminder of the price Iranians could pay for freedom.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VELSHI: Octavia, we are so aware of the imagery in this particular outpouring after the election. But this -- this has stood out. This particular image has stood out, because we watched someone die in many cases. Who is this girl?
NASR: We watched her die. And, also, who took the pictures?
These are people, civilians, showing up to demonstrate, and this woman takes a shot to her chest, basically killing her within seconds. A fellow protester turns around, turns his cell phone on, and starts taking video of her last moments.
That -- those are chilling moments. Across the world, people are reacting to them. What we know is that she's 27 years old. We believe she's a philosophy student. And basically, you look at her, very modern look, wearing jeans under her black garb -- she had a head scarf walking in. We know that from early video of her.
What happened is that the man who is with her, who we believe is her father -- some people are saying that's her teacher -- but he has a long gray pony tail and is he wearing this bright striped blue shirt. That's how we were able to identify with earlier video...
VELSHI: Right.
NASR: ... that this is the two of them.
VELSHI: So, we have a couple angles of this?
NASR: Definitely. VELSHI: OK.
NASR: And, basically, he's calling on her, "Neda, Neda." That's how we know that's her name. There is a lot of information out on the Internet about who she is. People are saying they are distant relatives, relatives and so forth.
But I tell you, from my sources, everyone who knows this woman or knows more about her is not spreading out any information. They're saying, for the safety of her family..
VELSHI: Sure.
NASR: ... for the safety of all those who are left behind, they don't want to speak; they don't want to attract so much attention.
VELSHI: We don't even know that she was partisan, that she was protesting in favor of one candidate or the other.
NASR: No, we do not know.
As a matter of fact, the consequences -- I mean, the -- the -- not the consequences -- the -- the details around why she was there and what happened are not known.
VELSHI: Yes. Right.
NASR: We do not know why she was there. We believe she was there to demonstrate. That's from eyewitnesses, people who were there on the scene.
VELSHI: Right.
NASR: And, basically, they are saying that they saw Basij militia on the rooftops of buildings basically take aim at her. They say this is where the shooting came from.
VELSHI: Basij are the pro -- pro-military -- pro-government militia.
NASR: They are. They are a paramilitary volunteer group.
VELSHI: Yes.
NASR: So, basically, they are the ones who are not -- they are not police. So, they basically go out and do whatever they want.
VELSHI: Right.
NASR: That's why the story is sort of credible in this sense.
What we know also is that she is buried already, that they already buried her, that -- we're hearing reports that the government did not release the body until they got confirmation from the family that it will be a quiet burial ceremony.
VELSHI: Yes.
NASR: And, as a matter of fact, our producers on the ground are telling us that they did go to a mosque today, where crowds of people showed up wanting to have a special ceremony for her. But the police sent them away. They didn't allow that.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: Tell me quickly, because you're involved in the decisions, why CNN made the decision to show that very difficult and graphic video. We don't often show someone who is dying or in their last moments of life.
NASR: This was -- this was not an easy decision.
But, at the same time, this story is very, very different from any other story that we have followed and we have covered. And just think about it. We have a blackout on information coming out of Iran. We are restricted. We cannot report out of Iran.
We want to be on the streets. We want to be in those rallies. We want to bring the news firsthand, but we are not allowed to do that by the Iranian government. So, what happens is that, if you're watching, for example, government-run television right now in Iran, the stories are about how safe the streets are, how the police are in control, the shops are open, traffic is normal.
These are the images you get. You get a sense that everything is all right. Now, you go on these social media sites and, all of a sudden, you have these videos being uploaded, people demonstrating, people being shot at, people being beaten.
VELSHI: Right.
NASR: We're talking to people who are at those -- demonstrators.
They say they are beaten, they're intimidated. You have a responsibility as a journalist and as a media outlet to tell your viewers...
VELSHI: Things aren't as they -- right.
NASR: ... what is going on.
And, in this video -- this video got such a reaction from around the world. It's not just a video, Ali, anymore.
VELSHI: Yes.
NASR: It is now the symbol of that opposition in Iran.
VELSHI: Yes.
NASR: So, anyone trying not to show this video or showing portions of it -- we got complaints yesterday from people saying, you need to show the whole thing. Don't cover it. Don't pixilate. VELSHI: Yes.
NASR: We thought in the package, in the report, with context, it's OK to show how ugly things could be.
VELSHI: Right. But we won't be showing that outside of context.
NASR: No. No, we won't.
VELSHI: That's a very important point.
Your group is doing such a job in gathering information, figuring out what it's about, translating the whole thing. And we know you need to get back to that.
Octavia Nasr, thanks very much.
NASR: Thank you, Ali.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Not productive, given the history of U.S.-Iranian relations, to be seen as meddling.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Well, that's been the White House stance on Iran since the protests started, but that is not enough for some people. What more do they feel the Obama administration should do about Iran? And are they right?
And some of the most compelling images are the ones we show you without all the talk and the commentary and analysis. And that's what we're going to do next. We will put you inside the scenes that you have been seeing and new ones that we have got, and we're going to get out of the way.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: All right, let's talk to a few people -- or let's see what some of our viewers, some of you, are saying on MySpace and Twitter. Remember, you can get us on Rick's MySpace, Facebook, and Twitter, and on mine.
This is Rick's MySpace: "RIP, rest in peace, Neda. And my deepest condolences to her family. Many more people will rise up for the one true cause of freedom for the Iranian people."
Let's go over to my Twitter account. James1981 is asking, "Ali, can you find out how the children of Iran are dealing with this?
I'm going to speak to our Iran desk and see whether we have information. You know, as you know, the information we're gathering is coming from the people of Iran through their cell phones, through the Internet, through Twitter, through Facebook. Isabel is also talking about Neda. When a moving, moving stories. Isabel says: "Others died, but Neda is in the news today with her face exposed to our distress. What was the true story of her and the other victims?"
And that is the difficulty that we all face right now in figuring out what the true story actually is. And we are depending on you who know people there, who are in Iran in getting us that information. We have a great team of experts who are translating information, looking at video, authenticating it, finding out where that video was taken by looking at landmarks. And we are gathering as much information as we can and passing that on to you.
But we are as good as -- as you are in getting us that. So, we -- we need to try and get to the truth.
OK, for the moment, enough about Iran for a few minutes, although we have to stay on it, and we're going to come to it, its politics, its human rights and election practices. But you know what? Iran's inside-out meltdown is also about people, angry, frustrated, defiant people. So, watch with me these images that come from inside Iran and from around the world.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: All right, it's me, Ali Velshi, sitting in for Rick Sanchez for the whole week.
Listen, Rick's MySpace and his Twitter and my Facebook and Twitter are -- are really getting a lot of response from you about what's going on in Iran.
Let's go to Rick's MySpace for a second. There's a comment there. "If the Iranian people really want freedom, then they are going to have to fight for it. We can't fight this battle for them. That would be the absolute wrong thing to do, unless the rest of the world went in with us."
And take a look at this comment on my Facebook right at the top. "You know, I think the Iranian people should stop the protests if the violence is getting worse and peace gets far."
The next comment says: "Neda is like a martyr. Her death is almost like Bhutto of Pakistan." And that just came in less than a minute ago.
So, a lot of -- a lot of response to what the Iranian people should be doing, what they are doing, and what the United States should do, what role should the U.S. and this administration have.
President Obama is expected to talk about Iran when he holds a news conference tomorrow. He didn't mention the conflict at all during his public appearances today, but he did release a written statement over the weekend.
And it said -- quoting now -- "We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected. And the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights."
That statement didn't mention what triggered the protests, allegations this month's presidential election in Iran was fixed. Now, some Republicans say the president is being too timid.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: On this issue, I do not believe that the president is taking the leadership that is incumbent upon an American president.
REP. MIKE PENCE (R), INDIANA: When Ronald Reagan went before the Brandenburg Gate, he did not say, "Mr. Gorbachev, that wall is none of our business."
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: All right, well, is the president being wise or is he being a wimp?
Democratic strategist Maria Cardona and Republican strategist Rich Galen join us from Washington.
Rich, let's start with you.
What do you think of the president's reaction so far?
RICH GALEN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I think -- I agree with Senator McCain. I think it has been timid.
I think this goes back to something, Ali, that he did in March that may have -- may have given a false signal, quite innocently. The president sent a message to the Iranian people on the occasion of the Persian new year.
VELSHI: Right.
GALEN: And I think -- I wrote a column this morning. I called it "Obama's Bay of Pigs," which is overstatement for -- for dramatic purposes.
But -- but I -- but having spent a lot of time in these sorts of environments, it may well be that the young people of Iran, because Obama has such a connection with them, read something into that statement that the United States government didn't mean to be read in.
And I think, I suspect that many of them may have thought that help would be on the way. It's -- it's wrong, but I think that was an unintended consequence.
VELSHI: Maria, hard to know from all the feedback that we are getting here from Facebook and from Twitter and otherwise what the Iranian people expect of the U.S. at all. I mean, do we help them by being involved and by being on the side of those against the -- the Iranian administration, or do we hurt them?
MARIA CARDONA, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I think, right now, we are doing exactly the right thing, which is absolutely supporting the universal rights that they are fighting for so hardly right now -- or so hard for right now. That's exactly what the president did over the weekend.
He unequivocally said that he was on the side of the protesters or on the side of everybody who wanted freedom and who wanted freedom of speech. But we cannot be seen as meddling. There is nothing that would give zest to this incredible organic movement quicker than if Iran's ruling government is able to say that those protesters are being sponsored by the "Great Satan," which is what they love to call us. So, I completely disagree with Rich on this.
(CROSSTALK)
GALEN: Well, you do disagree with me, and I understand that.
But one of the things we can do -- and somebody mentioned this in one of the tweets that you showed -- is that what we can be doing -- and I suspect we are doing -- is working with Iran's neighbors to see what kind of aid and comfort they may be able to bring in.
Remember, Iran is a Shia country. It's a very deep divide between Shiites and -- and Sunnis. So, everybody wants to be careful in this thing.
And, to -- to be on the president's side, he's got a lot of things going on. You got North Korea. You got Iran. You got Jimmy Carter stick -- talk about meddling. You have Jimmy Carter meddling where he doesn't need to be.
So, I think what the administration has to do is to -- is to show that they have just not -- unlike a written statement, to show that they really do have a compassion for those people on the streets.
VELSHI: Well, I will tell you, Rich and Maria, one of the -- the Facebook -- the tweet that I just got a moment ago might say it all. "The U.S. doesn't need to intervene in Iran. Pictures and video worldwide will do it."
CARDONA: That's exactly right.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: It certainly seems to be doing the job right now.
CARDONA: That's exactly right, Ali.
(CROSSTALK)
CARDONA: That is what is giving power to this movement.
VELSHI: Yes. CARDONA: And contrary to what Rich says and McCain and all of the other Republicans who want us to interfere, this is not about the United States.
And I think everybody who talks about that we should be doing more is, again, that just goes to the arrogance that has gotten us in trouble in the past.
VELSHI: Right.
CARDONA: This is about the Iranian people, and this is about an organic movement. And it will continue to be about that.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: An important discussion. Thank you both for joining us for it, Maria Cardona and Rich Galen.
CARDONA: Thanks, Ali.
CNN will carry tomorrow's presidential news conference live starting at 12:30 p.m. Eastern time.
Well, this is the mayor of a Maryland town in happier times with his dogs. That's before officers kicked in his door to make a drug buff -- bust, roughing up his mother-in-law and killing the two dogs in the picture.
People killed in clashes in Iran as well, and, so far, the international community has been markedly noncommittal about the ongoing protests there. But what would happen if a more direct international confrontation occurred? And how does the price of oil play into that?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: All right, still concerns about a recession out there, the -- the stock market not doing so well today, although not at its lows. It's actually up from where it was, down only about 168 points on the Dow right now at 8371. We will be talking to Susan Lisovicz shortly about the markets, about the economy and about oil prices.
I will also be talking about how Iran and the situation there, as it escalates, if it escalates, could have an impact on what you pay for gasoline. We will talk about that in a bit.
Coming up next: Officers kicked in his door, killed his dogs, and roughed up his mother-in-law. But it turns out they had the wrong guy. Now an investigation says the officers did nothing wrong.
I will explain.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Hey, I'm in for Rick all this week. You can Tweet me at @AliVelshi. Also Tweet at RickSanchezCNN and Rick's MySpace and Facebook. There's one Tweet that came into my account. We're examining what role the American government should have in Iran and this response says "It's totally unacceptable to call your president a wimp or any other derogatory name." What we asked as a question was is the president being wise or is he being a wimp. No offense intended to anyone. We were really just putting it together to say what do you think the administration should be doing. Hey, go easy on me, my first day in this gig.
You may remember hearing the story last year, officers staged a drug raid at the home of a small town Maryland mayor, killing his two dogs and roughing up his mother-in-law. Today, we've got new developments. First, here's the report that our own Don Lemon filed on this story.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): His home has been patched up. But the mayor of Berwyn Heights, Maryland, tells CNN the damage done to his family may be irreparable.
MAYOR CHEYE CALVO, BERWYN HEIGHTS, MARYLAND: We lost our family dogs. We did it at the hands of, you know, sheriff deputies bursting through our front door, you know, rifles blazing.
LEMON: It all started when Mayor Cheye Calvo says he took a package addressed through his wife in from his doorstep last Tuesday. He placed it on the kitchen table and went upstairs. Then all hell broke loose.
CALVO: Suddenly there was an explosion. The door just flew open. I heard gunfire shoot off. I was in my boxer shorts literally when I was brought downstairs at gunpoint bound and forced to kneel on the floor.
LEMON: It turns out that package was 32 pounds of marijuana that a police dog had sniffed out at a shipping facility. Officers posing as delivery men dropped the package at Calvo's front door while the SWAT team waited. After they burst in, Calvo says his mother-in-law was roughed up and the family dogs executed.
LEMON (on camera): Didn't you tell them, hey, I'm the mayor?
CALVO: I did. And they didn't actually believe me. They told a detective that I was crazy until he told a local police.
LEMON (voice-over): Calvo says Prince George's County police never told local Berwyn Heights police that they were investigating a drug delivery scheme. Traffickers deliver drugs to unsuspecting homeowners hoping to intercept the package before the homeowner discovers it.
CALVO: My mother-in-law was bound laying in the kitchen and then I noticed my two dead dogs.
LEMON: Prince George's County police say deputies did the right thing. VOICE OF SHARON TAYLOR, PRINCE GEORGE'S CO. SPOKESMAN: The community is damaged by the continuous drug trafficking. We don't want any of our operations to result in the injury or loss of anybody, and certainly not animals.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VELSHI: Well, that was late last year. Last week, the sheriff's department finally released the results of an internal investigation. Even though Mayor Calvo and his family have been cleared of any wrongdoing, the report says there was nothing improper about the raid. Now today, the mayor reacted. He announced that he is suing the sheriff's department and in a news conference this afternoon, he blasted Prince George's County Sheriff Michael Jackson. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CALVO: He concluded that the invasion of my home was conducted quote, "in a professional and acceptable manner," end quote. He actually commended the police for their actions and held up the incident as some sort of model operation. In his words, he said that his deputies quote, "did their job to the fullest extent of their abilities," end quote. In truth, though, Sheriff Jackson's findings merely fall in line with the public conclusion he reached at the outset of his so-called investigation last year.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: All right. CNN security analyst Mike Brooks is a former Washington, D.C. police detective. I think he's busted down a few doors in his time. So we have asked him to join us to talk this thing over. Mike, first of all, you saw the report from the sheriff's office. And what do you make of it? They laid out what they did and they say they were justified in their actions of breaking in, shooting the dogs and cuffing the mother-in-law.
MIKE BROOKS, CNN SECURITY ANALYST: I'll tell you, Ali, I looked at the report and having been an operator, SWAT operator myself, before I go through a door, I want to know everything about the person inside of that house. I think the investigators, first of all, it began out in Arizona where they discovered this marijuana. And there was no hurry. There was no, you know, it was a controlled delivery, as we call it. So why --
VELSHI: They didn't have to bust in unexpectedly.
BROOKS: First of all, they needed to investigate a little bit further into OK, this house we're going into, have these people ever been involved in any drug, you know, busts, any sales before, do they have a criminal background, are there any weapons inside the house. Because in the report, it says -- it said that procedure dictates that the specialized services team -- SSD -- be briefed by the investigating officers on all details of the case to include a quote, "background of any known occupants of the house and any other information." VELSHI: Which clearly they didn't have because they didn't know the mayor lives there. Not a mayor who has a history of being involved in drugs.
BROOKS: And I go through there, and it does not say anything about any investigation of the people inside the house.
VELSHI: So you generally feel as somebody who might be on that side of the door having to push it in in an armed way, you want as much information as you can have and unless this is something that is urgent, that needed to be done that second, they could have managed it in a better way.
BROOKS: Exactly. I don't see this whole operation as exigent circumstances. But no, I think they should have investigated a little bit further before they decided to go ahead and execute the warrant.
VELSHI: Now you did say to me earlier that they may not have investigated properly. As far as you can see, once the decision was made to go in that door, the procedure seemed to have been followed.
BROOKS: It seemed to have been followed, yes. It's unfortunate the dogs were killed because I'm a dog lover, but the contention was that one of the dogs was actually running away, the four-year-old Lab was actually running away because they found out there were dogs in the house when they went up to make the delivery. When one of the officers went up to make this surreptitious delivery, that the mother- in-law was holding the dogs back because they were barking at him. So they said there were vicious dogs in the house.
VELSHI: Sad situation.
BROOKS: We haven't heard the end of it, Ali.
VELSHI: Clearly we haven't. Sounds like he's suing and we are going to talk about this. Mike, good to see you. Listen, I'm here for a week, let me know where I can get this taken care of.
BROOKS: I think we go to the same barber.
VELSHI: I think that's right. All right, Mike Brooks, thanks a lot.
BROOKS: All right, buddy.
VELSHI: All right, we continue to talk about Iran. Iranian authorities are quick to blame scenes like these on outside interference or on Western meddling. But what would happen if the western world, especially the United States, took a more active role against the current Iranian regime? How would Iran respond? That's up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Right now, what we need to be most concerned about in Iran is the safety of its citizens and how this election and the results of it are going to unfold. But there is something else that you should think about. Iran is the second largest producer of oil in OPEC -- 40 percent of the oil that is traded by sea, that is transported by sea in the world, has to pass by Iran through something called the Strait of Hormuz. By the way, that's 20 percent of all the oil that's traded in the world. And often when things get tense with Iran, between Iran and the West, there is some discussion about Iran stopping supertankers from passing by that very narrow Strait of Hormuz.
I will give you a quick look at that, if I can. You can see the Persian Gulf there, which is where oil goes through. Now we're zooming into the Strait of Hormuz. At its narrowest point, just 21 miles wide. We haven't heard any saber rattling from Iran about this right now. There are many, many U.S. ships in the larger region. The U.S. has always said that Iran won't shut it down because if they tried to, the U.S. will send its ships into the Strait of Hormuz to escort supertankers in and out.
When we come back, we are going to talk about the effect of an escalation with Iran and what it can do to the price you pay at the pump for a gallon of gas. Stay with us, we'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: All right, let's talk about what I was just telling you about, the fact that 20 percent of the world's oil has to pass by the Strait of -- pass through the Strait of Hormuz in order to get to the world. What is the Strait of Hormuz? Where is it and why do we care?
Let's have this discussion. It's the world's most important oil choke point. It gets 21 miles wide, it gets as narrow as 21 miles wide at its narrow point, allowing ships to go into the Persian Gulf to load up with oil and then out of the Persian Gulf.
Forty percent of all sea-borne oil, that is oil that is traded by getting on a ship, passes through that point. So we want to discuss whether or not the escalation of words with Iran could become a problem for you and the price you pay for energy.
Fadel Gheit is with us. He's a senior energy analyst at Oppenheimer and Company. Fadel, thank you for being with us. First of all, are we -- should we -- should our viewers right now, have any concern that this issue with Iran could somehow escalate and end up costing them money at the gas pump?
FADEL GHEIT, OPPENHEIMER AND COMPANY: Not really, because the Iranian government needs more oil revenue than we need oil. So right now, there is an oversupply of oil, demand is very weak, inventory levels are very high, oil prices in my view are still very high. They should not be near $60, they should be close to $50.
So we have very little to worry about. The Iranian government cannot afford to shut off oil export because they need that revenue pretty badly.
On the other hand, also some of the facts that we have to share with our viewers is that this is the most secure waterway in the world. It has more, you know, navy ships per square mile than any other place in the world. So we have not seen any incident going in or out of the Strait of Hormuz since the Iran-Iraq war in mid to late '80s.
VELSHI: So Fadel, all this rise in gas prices that we've seen over the last two months, the rise in oil prices, more than 30 percent the last two months, that has nothing to do with this tension in Iran, so what has been driving the price of oil up?
GHEIT: Well, very interesting question. I have been asking myself the same question. The same oil players that give us $140 a barrel oil are venturing back to take oil prices from $32 in December to $72 a week ago.
In my view, two things. Number one, OPEC cut production by 4.5 million barrels a day. It's a fact. So that obviously heightened the market. But demand continues to deteriorate so in my view, oil prices are not justifiable above $45. Why do we have $72? Because of the excessive speculation.
VELSHI: All right, so well then you think it's too high as it is and you think things would have to get a lot worse for it to be a problem with Iran. All right, very good. Fadel, thank you for joining us and giving us what seems to be something like good news. Good to see you again. Fadel Gheit, an oil expert telling us don't worry too much about Iran and oil.
Now, he's not quite the unblemished rising star he once was, but Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is still eyeing a run for governor of California. Will he or won't he? That's the question for the mayor this afternoon and that's coming up next.
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VELSHI: All right. We are going to check in with Wolf Blitzer. Coming up in "The Situation Room," he's going to have some very big news, possibly. Big announcement that we have all been waiting for. Will he or won't he? The mayor of Los Angeles, is he running for the governor of California? Wolf?
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, we'll know in a few minutes. The mayor, Ali, Antonio Villaraigosa, is going to announce right here in "THE SITUATION ROOM," his decision. Has he decided to go ahead and seek the Democratic nomination to run as governor of California? Arnold Schwarzenegger will be giving up his term next year. Or does he decide not to run? Simple answer is I don't know what he's going to decide but we'll all find out together, that will be live. That's coming up in a few minutes right here in "The Situation Room."
Also, we are going to be going to Tehran. We're going to be speaking with the "New York Times" columnist Roger Cohen. He's on the ground in Tehran. He's been going all over the city. We're going to get his eyewitness accounts of what is happening there today. A lot coming up on Iran plus the mayor of Los Angeles, Ali, right here in "The Situation Room." VELSHI: All right, Wolf. Those are two stories you're going to want to be very, very close to. We will continue to stay with the Iran story, as well. Wolf, we look forward to seeing your interview with the mayor very shortly.
We have heard a lot from Iran in the past week, but listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
IVAN WATSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Why are you going out into the streets? Why are you trying to attend these demonstrations?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Because I think it's my responsibility. Because many of my friends are in this situation, and when I stay home, I am worried about my friends, other women, other boys that are killed, that are hit. And I think I should go. Maybe I can help them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: It is an absolutely amazing interview with a young woman who has been in the thick of the protests in Iran. I'm going to have more with her next.
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VELSHI: Here. You want to know why this story is such a big deal? Check out this Tweet that I just got and it says "The Iranian government has tanks and weapons while the average citizens are waging a war with cell phone cameras. Who will win?"
It is remarkable what technology has done, but there are regular Iranians out there protesting out in the street. Ivan Watson has been following this very, very closely. He's working our Iran desk. You had a fascinating conversation with a young woman, a 19-year-old woman, a little while ago.
WATSON: Absolutely. This was a woman who contributed photos to us, Ali, through the i-Report program on Saturday after she was clubbed taking photos of security forces. She went back out into the streets today and once again witnessed attacks on the part of the security forces trying to break up a rally.
VELSHI: Let's take a listen to what she told you.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Today, people were in the square, and I am so many other women, we are standing in a corner because, if you know, there is a lot of shops, and the robes for women and the shops were closed and we were waiting there. And suddenly, the messages came --
WATSON: The militia men. Yes?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. And they said go, go away. And there was an old woman. She said, it's my country. It's my town. I don't want to go. I want to say here. And I'm waiting for my husband, and he's going to pick me up. But he said three times, let's go away, and they didn't listen. And suddenly, they hit the woman so badly. And she was injured.
WATSON: The old woman?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. She was injured, and three other women that were standing there, they ran away, and they screamed a lot. And I helped one of them.
WATSON: And I understand that -- were you going to attend this memorial, this demonstration after this woman Neda was killed?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. I helped her go home, and I returned, and they said -- we were staying at the bus stop because they couldn't say anything when we were at bus stop. And we said we want to go by bus, and when a bus came, they forced us to take that bus because they said if anyone doesn't take that bus, they're going to hit her or him.
WATSON: Why are you going out into the streets? Why are you trying to attend these demonstrations?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Because I think it's my responsibility. Because many of my friends are in the situation, and when I stay home, I'm worried about my friends, other women, other boys that are killed, that are hit, and I think I should go. Maybe I can help them.
WATSON: You know, your foreign ministry called the elections this month a precious gem. They said they were wonderful and that they were successful. What do you think about these presidential elections?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think it was successful because -- I don't know why they make a fool of themselves, because everyone knows that we were taking par in the election because we didn't want Ahmadinejad to become our president. And we did that because we wanted Mir-Hossein Mousavi to be our president. And it wasn't because of our regime or -- I don't know, leaders. It was just because we didn't want Ahmadinejad to become the president. And unfortunately, he is.
WATSON: Do you think these demonstrations will continue? Are you waiting for a leader right now to tell you what to do?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. Unfortunately, we don't have a leader to tell us what to do and that's not a good thing because we don't know where to go. Every day they say different places and we don't know where to gather, and what to do, go or not go. If we have -- if we could have a leader, it was so good.
WATSON: You told me in your e-mail that a little boy was hit by this security forces.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, yes.
WATSON: Can you tell me what you saw?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes. We were standing at the bus stop, and a woman with her son, he was I think five or 6-years-old. They were passing, and suddenly, the militia came with the motorcycles in the pavement, the people were rushing, and they throw tear gas at people, and they hit that boy with the motorcycle and they ran away. And the woman sat down on the ground and cried for help. And we weren't there to help her, but one of the passages came and said go away, don't stay here. She will go -- she was shaking so bad, and she was crying. Her child was crying also. And they didn't help her.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VELSHI: That's incredible. This woman is saying it's her responsibility. Listen, one of the problems we've got is the way we're getting information. We've got a whole desk here working with them trying to verify what's going on, but it is not easy being a journalist in Iran right now.
WATSON: No, especially not to be an Iranian journalist. The Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders, they put out a report saying that Iran has become the world's biggest prison for journalists. It has listed 23 Iranian reporters arrested since June 14th.
VELSHI: Wow.
WATSON: From four different Iranian cities, several of them grabbed from their homes in the middle of the night. These are terrifying tactics that the Iranian state is using right now.
VELSHI: All right Ivan, you're going to keep on going with the Iran desk. Thank you for all the work that you're doing. We're going to keep on taking the information you get, bringing it air. Ivan Watson with our Iran desk.
Let's bring in Susan Lisovicz, that bell is about to ring on the New York Stock Exchange. Oil lower despite tension in Iran. Susan, what's going on?
(BUSINESS REPORT)
VELSHI: All right, Susan Lisovicz at the New York Stock Exchange. That's it for us, I'll see you next -- I'll see you tomorrow. Over to Wolf Blitzer in "THE SITUATION ROOM."
