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American Morning

Afghanistan election commission calls off presidential runoff election and declares Hamid Karzai Afghan President; Small business lender CIT declares bankruptcy; Hamid Karzai Wins Afghan Election; Studies Show Pregnant Women at Increased Risk for H1N1; Biden Opens Up on Obama; GOP Candidate Drops Out; USS New York Set to Dock

Aired November 02, 2009 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Coming up to the top of the hour on this Monday, the 2nd of November. Thanks for joining us on the "Most News in the Morning". I'm John Roberts.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: It's November already. Time is flying. From now until the end of the year, forget it. It will go by in the blink of an eye.

Meanwhile, thanks so much for being with us on this Monday morning. We have a lot of breaking news, including news out of Afghanistan that happened just 15 minutes ago.

We got word that the election committee is announcing that Saturday's presidential runoff has been canceled and that President Karzai has won a second term officially.

In just a moment we'll take you to the White House on how this may impact President Obama's decision about sending troops to Afghanistan.

Also, CIT, one of the leading lenders to small business, is filing for the fifth largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. The company says it has a plan in place to keep things business as usual, but could this be another big blow to thousands of small business owners across the country? The CNN money team is tracking that story for you.

ROBERTS: Plus, a CNN exclusive. Our Ed Henry talks to Vice President Joe Biden and finds out just how he gets along with his boss. What was the hardest adjustment for Vice President Biden to make when he took the job, plus why he says quote, "I really don't care what Dick Cheney thinks."

CHETRY: We begin the hour with breaking news. In a deadly assault in a very volatile region, overnight a suicide explosion on a bank in Pakistan happened in Rawalpindi. That's home of the country's military, just 18 miles south of the capital.

At least 35 people were killed and dozens more are now being treated for injuries. Most of the victims were simply waiting in line to pick up their monthly paycheck. The shock waves from the blast so powerful that they were felt blocks away.

Right now Pakistan's military is pushing ahead with a massive anti-Taliban offensive.

ROBERTS: We're following breaking news in neighboring Afghanistan. The election commission there declaring President Hamid Karzai the winner of the 2009 election.

This latest development coming a day after the chief rival Dr. Abdullah Abdullah dropped out of the contest. Our Ed Henry is live at the White House, and, Ed, what are folks at the White House saying about this latest twist that the runoff has been canceled and Karzai is declared the winner?

ED HENRY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, they are certainly trying to downplay it, even though this is clearly a complication for the president as he makes this monumental decision about whether to send up to 40,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan.

You'll remember, it was top White House officials a couple of weeks ago who were insisting that this runoff was crucial to try and establish credibility in the Afghan election process, try to figure out a way ahead in Afghanistan.

But yesterday on one of the Sunday programs David Axelrod, the president's senior adviser, was saying, basically, this was just a political decision by Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID AXELROD, SENIOR WHITE HOUSE ADVISER: Every poll that had been taken there suggested that he was likely to be defeated anyway. So we're going to deal with the government that is -- there are obviously issues we need to discuss, such as reducing the high level of corruption. These are issues we'll take up with President Karzai.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HENRY: But this certainly now all of a sudden leaves the Obama administration having to deal with President Karzai yet again even though they have questioned his credibility and raised questions about corruption in his administration, certainly a lot of questions hanging over the Karzai administration.

And now a big question for the Obama administration, exactly when he will come forward, when the president will announce his decision on troop levels in Afghanistan.

You'll remember he had gotten a little political breathing space when White House officials said, wait, maybe there will be a decision after this runoff. Now that the runoff will not take place, it will only put more pressure on this president to announce his decision - John.

ROBERTS: All right, looking forward to that decision. And meantime, you're kicking off a new series this week looking at President Obama's brain trust. And as part of that you've got an exclusive interview with Vice President Joe Biden.

We'll be playing that coming up in just a little while, but give us a little preview here. What did he have to tell you?

HENRY: Well, it's interesting, because, as you know, there were kind of some stumbles early on for the vice president, some of those well known gaffes that pushed him aside a little bit.

But it's very clear from talking to top White House aides there that his influence has been growing in recent months in large part because he's been holding his tongue a little bit.

But also because they say that the president really appreciates sort of the unvarnished truth that the vice president tells him behind closed doors, the kind of bluntness that gets the vice president in trouble in public ironically helps in private with this president.

And in fact the vice president made a little boast to me I hadn't heard before about how he has not making any gaffes lately. So we'll have that in a few moments.

ROBERTS: All right, looking forward to that, Ed, thanks very much.

And back on Afghanistan, by the way, stay with us because coming up in less than ten minutes time, we'll break down what it means for the future of Afghanistan democracy and President Obama's decision to stabilize the country. We'll be talking with Zalmay Khalilzad, former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan.

CHETRY: Also new this morning, North Korea threatening to go its own way if Washington didn't meet face to face. The country's state- run media is reporting Pyongyang wants to settle some differences before any nuclear talks start up again.

The secretive state pulled out of meetings back in April after the U.N. condemned its nuclear test and missile launches.

ROBERTS: Bay Area commuters have another day of headaches ahead of them. The San Francisco Bay Bridge is still closed. Transportation officials say they cannot predict when it will reopen. Stress tests performed over the weekend failed, which is never good.

The bridge has been closed since last Tuesday when 5,000 pounds of steel fell on to rush hour traffic.

CHETRY: We'll give you a daily update on that.

The Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warning an economic recovery could take, quote, "a while." He says there sings of life, but we need more growth and more jobs. He told NBC news the key to the recovery will be in your savings account.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TIMOTHY GEITHNER, TREASURY SECRETARY: This is going to be a different recovery than in the past because Americans will have to save more. A lot of damage was caused by the crisis. It will take some time for us to grow out of this. It could be a little choppy, it could be uneven, and it's going to take a while. But I think, again, these are encouraging signs.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: Secretary Geithner also says that President Obama is committed to fixing the economy without raising taxes on people that make under $250,000 a year.

Also new this morning, almost 30 million small business owners are watching every move of mega-lender CIT group. The company is filing now for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It's the fifth largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Uncle Sam will also probably lose billions of your tax dollars it gave CIT during the federal bailout.

Plus, what can this mean for companies that are looking for these loans, relying on these loans to keep on operating? Our Christine Romans is minding your business this morning with more on the impact on CIT filing for bankruptcy.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: We've been watching and waiting for this for months. You remember, we've been talking about CIT before when it was on the verge of collapse. And it got some short-term restructuring that helped it, but in the end it is in bankruptcy for CIT.

And this is something that matters to you for so many reasons. When you walk into a big store or a small store, when you walk out there and go to a retailer, you're probably seeing and touching products that have made it to the shelf because of the lender CIT.

There are 2,000 vendors some 300,000 retailers who's products get on the shelves because of the way this company helps the credit keep flowing, the money keep flowing all along the production chain for retail.

So there are retail analysts and retail groups this morning who are talking about some concerns about what could happen heading into the holiday shopping season at a time it's already very difficult for many, many retailers.

Now, CIT, it also has a million customers. All of these retailers I told you about. It also does aircraft leasing and also rail cars. It operates in 30 industries. It is the top lender to women and minorities.

According to CIT itself, there are tens of millions of people who work for companies that rely on this kind of financing to be around. It is the fifth largest U.S. bankruptcy.

It is what they are calling a "pre-packaged bankruptcy," so they are hoping, the company it hoping it will operate as normal in the bankruptcy process, but there are just no guarantees about that.

You look at this Lehman, Washington Mutual, World.com, General Motors -- CIT rounds out the top five. And I think it's interesting to note that four of these five bankruptcies have happened in the last year.

Things aren't normal yet. And I think this (inaudible) with what the treasury secretary was taking, that it will take a while. This CIT bankruptcy is just another reminder that things are still real tough out there.

And people who are working in the retail business, people who rely on CIT, small and mid-sized business, they are a little nervous about what this is going to mean in the months ahead.

CHETRY: Understandably so.

A bit of a bright spot, though, Ford posting a profit, a pretty significant one.

ROMANS: That's right. We're looking at the AP dispatch here right now, Ford reporting a surprise $1 billion profit for the third quarter, fueled in part by getting more market share in the United States, big cost cuts, and also the Clash for Clunkers.

Just a reminder, Ford was the only one of the big three American automakers that did not have to take a bailout with your tax dollars. So just a reminder there.

And we also reported to you last week that "Consumer Reports" had Ford products on its most reliable list and said that some 90 percent of its products were reliable, average or better than average in reliability.

ROBERTS: Let's see if they can keep it going in the fourth quarter. Christine, thanks so much.

Breaking news out of Afghanistan, the November 7th runoff is out, canceled, and Hamid Karzai is the president again. We'll be talking with the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad coming right up.

It's nine minutes now after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning.

Any woman who is pregnant or thinking about becoming pregnant will want to listen to this -- pregnant women are especially vulnerable to swine flu. Coming up, why doctors say the disease can cause complications for expectant mothers, right here on AMERICAN MORNING - Kiran.

CHETRY: Well, we'll be watching. Meanwhile, it's 13 minutes past the hour. We're following breaking news.

Just in the last hour we learned Afghanistan's election commission has declared President Karzai the winner of the 2009 election. This is a big twist that comes after President Karzai's main challenger Abdullah Abdullah dropped out of the race. Joining me now is Zalmay Khalilzad, the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan. Thanks so much for joining us this morning, Mr. Ambassador.

KHALILZAD: It's good to be with you.

CHETRY: When we scheduled you to come on the show we were going to be talking about what happens now with the election going forward with only Karzai. And then we got the news, as I said, just within the last hour that officially there's going to be no runoff and Hamid Karzai is now once again the president of Afghanistan. Your thoughts?

ZALMAY KHALILZAD, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ AND UNITED NATIONS: Well, this puts the election issue behind us. Now the key issue is how the Afghan people react to this, what kind of government will president Karzai put together, and how the international community will react?

So we're in a new stage in Afghanistan. The election commission decided that I think legally to bring the election saga to an end. Now it's politics, government, and international reaction.

CHETRY: There's a couple of things at work here. First of all, they were getting set for extraordinary security, right? Even more security than in the last election to make sure that people could go to the polls and not have their election disrupted by Taliban and other insurgents who would seek to violence on that day.

The implications of that, the fact they are not going to have to prepare for this large scale buildup to protect people going to the elections?

KHALILZAD: I'm sure that was one of considerations in not having a second round, because it would have imposed security costs and other costs and provided targets of opportunity for the Taliban. I know that this was the preference of the international community, including the security forces that are there.

The decision was made based in part on considerations such as this.

CHETRY: Right. And, you know, the other side of this issue, though, is that there are so many continuing questions about the legitimacy and also the strength of a Karzai government, concerns that some are suggesting the U.S. is facing a weak partner now in its war on terror in Afghanistan because of so many questions surrounding the ability of Karzai's government to protect and also to make sure that democracy is, in fact, happening. What are your thoughts about Karzai now being leader once again?

KHALILZAD: Well, I think two things to watch. One is that how the key Afghan forces will react to this. How would Governor Atta (ph), for example, in the north and the other province, how would he react to this declaration? And second, what kind of government does President Karzai put together? More of the same will send a signal of weakness, a signal that isn't going to be any change to increase the effectiveness of the government? But if he can bring people together, put an effective government together, I think then the international reaction assuming that the Afghans also react positively, will be encouraging. It will have a positive effect.

CHETRY: Well, you know, as we also know in terms of our politics here at home and when we're speaking to the various presidential advisers, they were basically saying that the White House was waiting, that the runoff was one of the reasons the White House was waiting about whether or not they're going to announce any plans for how many additional troops to put in. Now, it seems that obviously this is not a consideration given that President Karzai is now going to be the president. That this election, that this run-off election has been cancelled. How does that play out in terms of our decision-making, the administration's decision-making on troop levels, U.S. troop levels for Afghanistan?

KHALILZAD: I think the administration could use the decision on troops to send a strong message to President Karzai that he must put a strong government together and effective government together. That America's decision and commitment to Afghanistan will depend on his decision to put a strong and effective government together or that we could decide on the troop decision now that the election issue is resolved and then move forward by pressing President Karzai, engaging him in an effective way to achieve the goal of an effective Afghan government. Because we cannot succeed there without a strong, effective partner and that is a question whether President Karzai will rise to the occasion and put such a team and such a government together.

CHETRY: There seems to be, you know, a lot of questions and a lot of new questions that are now springing up in light of this news this morning, again, that there will be no run-off election that that has been canceled. The Independent Electoral Commission saying that they're declaring Karzai the winner.

Great to have you with us this morning to help shed some light on this and give us some insight. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, thank you.

KHALILZAD: It's good to be with you.

ROBERTS: Pregnant women and swine flu, why doctors say it is so important for them to get vaccinated. We'll break it all down for you coming up next and give you the information you need to know to make a wise decision.

It's 18 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. What's it like when your boss is the president of the United States? Coming up in a CNN exclusive, you'll find out straight from the lips of Vice President Joe Biden. That's right here only on A.M.

CHETRY: Other stories new this morning, flooding in northwest Louisiana is forcing thousands of people from their homes. The Flat River has been spilling over the top of the Red Chute Bayou levee for days now. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal says that they'll ask for federal help for storm victims.

ROBERTS: An update on the three American hikers being held in Iran. Swiss diplomats have been allowed a second visit with them. A little while ago I spoke with Alex Fattal. He's the brother of one of the hikers, Josh Fattal, about what their families learned from that visit.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALEX FATTAL, BROTHER OF MISSING HIKER IN IRAN: We continue to be told that the physical conditions are adequate and they're OK. They're not being mistreated in any way, and that definitely gives us comfort. That's good to hear. It's always very reassuring. But at the same time, we're concerned that they probably feel very lonely, very cut off from the outside world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: A fourth hiker who was not arrested in the border crossing incident is releasing an open letter to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today calling for his friends' immediate release.

CHETRY: Well, the USS New York is now sailing towards the city it was named for. The ship contains steel from the World Trade Center. It's scheduled to come to a complete stop beside Ground Zero at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. So in just about forty minutes, there will also be a ceremony as well as a 21-gun salute. And you can watch live coverage of the ceremonies for the USS New York all morning long on air and on-line. Just head to CNN.com/live.

ROBERTS: The Centers for Disease Control is strongly recommending that pregnant women get vaccinated for swine flu. Studies show that expectant mothers who develop H1N1 are more likely to end up in the hospital.

Our Kara Finnstrom reports why pregnant women are especially vulnerable.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KARA FINNSTROM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A year of twists and turns for Nancy Brizendine.

NANCY BRIZENDINE, PREGNANT WITH H1N1: It looks like what?

FINNSTROM: This past spring an unexpected pregnancy for the 42- year-old, shock turned to celebration. And then just weeks ago that jubilation turned to fear.

BRIZENDINE: I had like a cough, like sinus infection, infected ear, nausea and fever. And that's when I went into the urgent care.

FINNSTROM: Nancy tested positive for the H1N1 virus, and the fact that she was pregnant put her right in the middle of a group that experts are most worried about.

DR. ANTHONY DULGEROFF, HIGH DESERT MEDICAL GROUP: Women who are pregnant seem to be somewhat immuno-compromised. And it just turns out that women who get the H1N1 tend to get sicker than the general population.

BRIZENDINE: I couldn't even get out of bed and lift my head because I was just so sick and achy.

FINNSTROM (on camera): It's tough enough to fight the ravages of H1N1 at home, but many pregnant women end up waging a much more serious battle. The Centers for Disease Control says pregnant women are four times more likely than other H1N1 patients to end up hospitalized.

(voice-over): Just last week an expectant woman from El Monte died from the H1N1 virus. She was 27. Doctors say for some reason the virus seems to cause the most serious complications in women who are both pregnant and young. Nancy believes age worked in her favor. She got better with Tamiflu and rest. But Nancy wasn't just worried about one baby on the way. You know, Nancy's 22-year-old daughter Kayla is also pregnant and doctors strongly suspect she also caught H1N1.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: One more time.

FINNSTROM: The difference? Kayla, who had no health problems ended up with bilateral pneumonia and on oxygen support.

KAYLA, NANCY BRIZENDINE'S DAUGHTER: Like I was hyperventilating because I couldn't breathe.

FINNSTROM (on camera): Was she at risk of dying? I mean, how --

DULGEROFF: Yes, absolutely. Absolutely.

BRIZENDINE: Honestly I thought OK -- honestly, is God giving me this baby because he's going to take my other baby and I don't want that to happen so it was really hard. It was real hard. And that's -- you know, I'm thinking OK, you know, what can I do being here? You know, I need to go to the hospital. I need to be with my baby but I couldn't.

FINNSTROM (voice-over): Three weeks later, doctors say mother, daughter and both of their unborn girls seem to be doing very well. But still there are fears.

BRIZENDINE: I was just worried, I mean, like what effects is this going to have on my baby? You know, and what effects are the medications going to have or what effects the x-ray is going to have?

DULGEROFF: Since the virus doesn't cross the placenta, probably not too much of a threat that we know of, however, there are very high fevers in the mother that could affect the baby.

FINNSTROM: House officials are urging pregnant women to get the H1N1 vaccination and Kayla and Nancy agree.

BRIZENDINE: And you have to realize, it's not just you, it's your baby.

KAYLA: Yes.

BRIZENDINE: You know. You have to protect both of you.

FINNSTROM: In Lancaster, California, Kara Finnstrom for CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHETRY: All right. Thanks, Kara. Well, a big election day tomorrow in a few key states. We're going to be getting a breakdown. Some of them getting very, very heated and controversial. Our David Frum and David Sirota join us to weigh in.

It's 26 minutes past the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: Coming up on the half hour now, and here are this morning's top stories on this Monday. A dramatic pirate battle off the coast of Somalia. The U.S. Navy says pirates opened fire on an American-flagged vessel and came within three feet of the ship. They weren't able to board it though. No one on the U.S.-flagged ship was injured.

CHETRY: Just hours after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton left Israel, Palestinians now openly questioning her ability to jump start peace talks in the region. Clinton praised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's offer to limit settlement construction on the West Bank. Palestinians insist all construction needs to stop and won't return to the bargaining table until that happens.

ROBERTS: The Ford Motor Company is cruising. The automaker blowing away Wall Street expectations this morning, reporting an operating profit of $873 million for the third quarter. Ford lost $3 billion in the same quarter last year.

CHETRY: Well, what's it like being a heartbeat away from the Oval Office? And what's the relationship really like between President Obama and Vice President Biden? The two were rivals on the campaign trail, and it's fair to say the VP has no trouble speaking his mind.

Well, this morning in a CNN exclusive we're taking you inside of the West Wing for insights that you will not get anywhere else. Our senior White House correspondent Ed Henry is live at the White House with a first in our series, "The Presidential Brain Trust." Hey, Ed, you had a chance to talk, hang out with Vice President Joe Biden, how was it?

HENRY: That's right, Kiran. It's interesting because one year ago this week, the Obama-Biden ticket was victorious, but it was sort of an unlikely political marriage. Two men from different generations, Barack Obama more of a cerebral politician, Joe Biden more of a gut instinct player.

And there are bumps early on because of some of the Biden gaffes but I can tell you from senior officials here at the White House this partnership has really grown to the point that Joe Biden is now one of the president's most influential advisers on everything, from the economy to health care and Afghanistan.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HENRY (on-camera): How are you, sir? It's been a long time.

(voice-over): After nine months as vice president, Joe Biden still has the DNA of a back slapping senator, getting in your face and jabbing a finger in your chest to make his points.

JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The one adjustment that I needed to make, I've been my own man for 36 years as United States senator, I've never had a boss.

HENRY: Now he does, and Biden confesses sometimes it's difficult to remember that he's no longer a free agent. Like when Biden called an aide with the news that Delaware's governor had decided on a replacement for his old Senate seat.

BIDEN: He said, yes, did you call the president? Why in the hell should I call the president? It's my state. Why should I call the president?

HENRY: The aide explained he should not blindside the president, which happened too often in the early days such as an awkward joke about Chief Justice John Roberts.

BIDEN: My memory is not as good as Justice Roberts.

HENRY: The president publicly corrected his number two. And later poked fun about the gaffes after getting a new dog.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You just have to keep him on a tight leash. Every once in a while he goes charging off in the wrong direction and gets himself in trouble. But enough about Joe Biden.

HENRY: But top White House aides tells CNN Biden spends a minimum of two hours with the president each day. Sometimes up to five hours.

BIDEN: I'm not trying to set up a separate set of power over here. It works best when there's a single center of power.

HENRY: He says that's a sharp break from Dick Cheney's approach and has no patience for his predecessor's charge that Mr. Obama is dithering over his Afghanistan decision.

BIDEN: I like Dick Cheney personally, but I really don't care what Dick Cheney thinks. And I'm not sure a lot of Americans can still look at the policy they left us. Look at the policy of neglect they left us in Afghanistan.

HENRY: He is also consciously trying to catch himself before he slips up even on a minor point about the Taliban.

BIDEN: Look everything has changed, Ed. Not everything. We've been precise. There's been a significant change in the last four months.

HNERY: While Biden insists the president never told him to tone it down, he's proud of his ability to dial it back on his own.

(on-camera): "Saturday Night Live" had a lot of fun with you about gaffes.

BIDEN: Yes.

HENRY: Have the president ever had to say...

BIDEN: Not lately. You know, I'm sort of a gaffe-free zone right now. You know.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HENRY: The vice president saying he is a gaffe-free zone right now. Ironically what top White House aides say is what gets Joe Biden in trouble publicly, that bluntness, is actually what gives him a lot of influence privately, the fact that he's blunt. The fact that the president believes he gives him the unvarnished truth about everything from Afghanistan to Iraq, the economy, health care. That's what gives him a lot of power and influence around here in the west wing -- Kiran.

CHETRY: It's very interesting. I mean, he is very candid with you as well. You know, and also, self-aware. I mean, he said, yes, I know have been prone to gaffes in the past but I've been gaffe free zone for a while now.

HENRY: Yes. You saw him catch himself there and it's also interesting that with the election tomorrow, Joe Biden has also become sort of the president's point man on trying to get the vote out and raise money. When he first sat down at the interview with me, he was sort of a little bit tired.

It was early on Friday. He said, they are working me so hard. I told them that if they just cut my days down from 17 hours a day to 12, I'll be a lot better off. He said because I've already done 52 events for candidates, not just in the off year 2009 but fundraisers and the like for 2010, those midterm congressional elections.

And in fact, tonight Joe Biden is doing a rally in upstate New York, the key House race every one is looking at. So this president trusts him on a whole bunch of fronts, Kiran.

CHETRY: Yes, who said the vice president's job, you know, is not a busy one? It sure is. All right. HENRY: They used to call it a warm bucket of spit. I guess back in the day that it really wasn't much but Joe Biden looks like actually that he's got a lot more power. He's looking like he's enjoying the job as well. Kiran.

CHETRY: All right. Well, Ed Henry, great job. It was great to get to sit down with him. And tomorrow our series continues. He is the face of the president's message. He faces reporters every day.

In another CNN exclusive, our Dan Lothian gets a chance to talk to White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERT GIBBS, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I think the type of relationship we have is - it's I think we think of each other not just as somebody that - not just somebody I work for but a friend of mine, somebody who is likely to on any given day ask about my son as much as he is to talk about a policy issue. So I think the relationship you also have to have with that person because you're speaking for somebody is can - can be a difficult thing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: And that's tomorrow, part two of our series, "The Presidential Brain Trust." 7:30 Eastern right here on the most news in the morning.

ROBERTS: So much more than a warm bucket of spit.

Outside of Washington, in New York, New Jersey and Virginia to be exact, three political races could end up being critical for both the president and the republican party. Here for the "AM Breakdown" this morning, columnist for theweek.com and former speechwriter for President Bush, David Frum, and syndicated columnist, David Sirota, who joins us this morning from Denver.

So David Sirota, let's ask you. Is the state of Virginia lost Bob McDonnell leads Craig Deeds by double digits according to some polls. And in every off-year election since 1977, whoever wins the White House, it's the opposite party that takes the governorship. So is it all over but the crying there for the Democrats in Virginia?

DAVID SIROTA, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: Well, it looks pretty bad for Democrats in Virginia. But I don't think it's a national referendum on the Democrats in the sense that Virginia is a Republican state. It's been a Republican red-leaning state for a long time. The Democrats have been able to pick off a couple of elections there and the pendulum was bound to swing back.

So, yes, I think the Democrats are probably going to lose that race but again I don't think it's a referendum on the National Democratic Party. And I'll acknowledge the National Democratic Party does have some problems.

ROBERTS: Yes. What about that David Frum, five of the last seven governors in the Commonwealth of Virginia have been democrats. But is it anything unusual this year, if this continues this year, the historic trend that it's the other party that wins the governorship compared to the one that's in the White House?

DAVID FRUM, COLUMNIST WEEK.COM: I think the spinning has begun. But the whole story of Virginia, the thing that everyone has been talking about the past couple of years in studying that state is how a state that was once solidly Republican has become a swing state. It's a truly competitive state. And with the growth of the population in northern Virginia, especially a highly educated Democratic leaning electorate, Virginia has become decisive.

So if - I think when you look at what's going to happen there. The interesting question is why. If the Republicans are going to take back the state, it looks like it will be because of a collapse in voter enthusiasm among Democrats and especially minority Democrats.

And that well the state therefore is not a referendum on the national Democratic Party, it is a bell weather of what is going on with Democrats and their - the disenchantment of the more left wing part of the party with the president and smallness of the moderate part of the party that you would think would rally to him.

ROBERTS: David Sirota, what about the state of New Jersey, an unusually tight race for Governor Jon Corzine. He's got two challengers Chris Christie and Chris Daggett. Daggett the independent somewhat affecting the numbers there for Christie but is New Jersey a referendum on the president?

SIROTA: Yes, you know, I agree with David in the sense that he's right. That if there is a problem for the Democratic Party right now, it's that the progressive base is a little less enthusiastic with the president and with the Congress right now waiting to see if they are going to actually do things.

As it plays out in New Jersey, look, I think the fact, frankly, that the democrats are even in this race. You got Jon Corzine, who was a former Goldman Sachs CEO, running in the shadow of a Wall Street meltdown. The fact the Democrats are even in this race under those circumstances with an independent in the race, I think suggests that while the Democrats again have problems, that the Republicans are incredibly, incredibly weak.

Remember, New Jersey is not as democratic a state as people think of it. It has had a Republican governor in recent years. It has been a state John Kerry only one 52 percent of the vote. So it's a democratic state but it's not as Democratic as people think.

ROBERTS: What do you think about that, David? Is New Jersey weak for Republicans or is it the addition of Chris Daggett to the competition that is pulling numbers from Christie and making him seem weaker than he actually might be if he were in a head to head race.

FRUM: By all rights, this should be an easy Republican pick up. New Jersey's a very badly governed state. Jon Corzine has been a very bad governor. I think part of the problem is the Republicans have the wrong man at the head of the ticket.

Chris Daggett, who has been a lifelong Republican, I think a lot of people have been following politics in that state, say he would be an outstanding choice, probably the best man for the job. There's something dysfunctional in the Republican primary process where Daggett didn't enter the primary knowing he would lose, knowing he has a sore loser statue and so he ran as an independent and Chris Christie has not offered a lot.

I think if Daggett had been the head of the Republican ticket, this would have been a walk away Republican race and New Jersey will get some better government by someone who would be presiding over an administration full of very dubious characters that what Jon Corzine has done.

ROBERTS: Speaking of wrong person, David Frum, at the top of the ticket, New York's 23rd congressional district, right up there, way upstate New York, just below the Canadian border. Dede Scozzafava was the Republican choice, she was a Republican nominee, she was running against Bill Owens on the Democratic side but conservative wing of the republican party took aim at her, Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty came out and said she is too liberal to be the congress woman from the 23r district. They threw their support behind Doug Hoffman, basically ran her off the ticket. Is it wise to divide the party like that at this time?

SIROTA: Well, if you have self-sacrificingly taken herself out of the race, and so the Republican conservative vote will be undivided. That makes this a competitive district. But it is a fratricidal situation - again this should be a Republican walkaway. When you consider how bad conditions are in the country. Why is this race so close? Why isn't there a 15-point Republican advantage in the district that is the home of fourth -

ROBERTS: And David Sirota, the fact that Scozzafava has now thrown support behind Bill Owens, does that give the democrat a bit of better chance, to say that anybody who is a moderate who might have voted for the Republican may in fact swing their vote to the Democratic side because Hoffman is such a conservative?

SIROTA: Yes, I think this is going to be fairly close. But the fact again that it is fairly close is amazing. Remember, this is a district that has been Republican since 1871. The fact that the Democrat is in this maybe suggests a strength to the Democrat. But again, I think I agree with David, it suggests a fundamental weakness among the Republican party here.

You're going to hear the Republicans if they win these races and say, hey look at how strong we are. The fact again that the democrats have been able to contend to suggest a fundamental weakness of the Republican party.

ROBERTS: Yes, And David Frum, just finish this off here, David Plouffe, who was President Obama's campaign manager said that this really sends a signal to moderates in the Republican Party that they need not apply. Do you agree with that? FRUM: No, I think actually it's going to send a big signal to the moderates that desperately needed the Republican party. I think it's also going to send a signal about what is going on in the president's coalition. That he's going to have a mutiny on his left if he's not careful. But then a mutiny in the rest of the country, because what is left is so unacceptable to probably 80 percent of the Americans.

ROBERTS: David Frum, David Sirota, it was great to catch up with you. Thanks for joining us this morning.

FRUM: Thank you.

ROBERTS: All right.

CHETRY: Still ahead, the USS New York is now heading back to New York for its namesake. We're going to be getting a live look at the ceremonies that are taking place as the big ship - there it is in New York Harbor right now. Forty-three minutes past the hour.

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CHETRY: Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. It's 45 minutes past the hour.

The USS New York is about to dock near the site of the World Trade Center. There's a live look right now in Manhattan. It's no ordinary ship, in fact.

ROBERTS: No. The New York was built using 7.5 tons of steel from the fallen Twin Towers, was melted down and put in the bow.

Jamie Roth of CNN affiliate WABC joins us now. She's on the west side of Manhattan. It's going to be quite a ceremony there today, Jamie.

JAMIE ROTH, WABC-TV CORRESPONDENT: A really meaningful day, Kiran and John, and what I love is that the crew started off their day it 4:00 AM with revelry. They got up to Sinatra's "New York, New York," so a great way to enter New York Harbor.

About 10 minutes ago, the ship passed under the Verrazano Narrows Bridge and it headed straight for ground zero where at 8:00 this morning it will give a 21-Gun Salute. After that, the ship travels to the George Washington Bridge, it will turn around there and dock at Pier 88, right next to the USS Intrepid, the aircraft carrier, and there it will have a week of festivities ending with its formal commission on Saturday.

The USS New York is an amphibious assault ship meant to carry marines and their equipment - and by equipment we mean assault vehicles, tanks, humvees and helicopters. So we have a lot to look forward to today, a day of great ceremony.

We're live on the Upper West Side on the Hudson River, Jamie Roth, back to you. ROBERTS: I'm looking forward to all of that, Jamie. Thanks. About 14 minutes' time we're going to see that happen.

CHETRY: Yes. It is so fascinating, that steel that was taken from the World Trade Center site was used to forge the bow of that ship, so it has real special meaning for - for those who remember 9/11, who were down there at 9/11, and also those who were both 9/11 survivors and also fought in the wars.

ROBERTS: Yes. And, you know, it's had a lot of visitors over the week. Mayor Bloomberg went out to the ship yesterday to watch the Yankees game on board with the crew.

CHETRY: Pretty cool.

ROBERTS: Give it (ph) the big taste of New York already.

CHETRY: Beautiful sight this morning. All right.

Well, still ahead, Rob Marciano's tracking Extreme Weather for us. He has the business traveler's forecast. He says things are pretty calm, of course, just in time for your Monday.

Forty-seven minutes after the hour.

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ROBERTS: Good morning, Atlanta. Here's a kicking song to get you going today. Clear and 44 degrees. Later on today, sunny with a high of 67. A nice fall day for Atlanta.

CHETRY: Yes, and you see the skyline, right? They took down the bright orange lights because Halloween's over.

ROBERTS: Yes. And (INAUDIBLE) it's daytime so you can see the (INAUDIBLE).

CHETRY: See that? So it all - all's well that ends well.

ROBERTS: Exactly.

CHETRY: And a good time was had by all.

Hey, Rob Marciano joins us now from Atlanta. I'm sure you're getting excited, watching the World Series, hanging out.

ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: I was, but you know - but that - that country music reminded me of a monumental point in my life Friday night. I went to a - a pseudo-country concert on Friday night here in Atlanta.

ROBERTS: A pseudo-country concert?

MARCIANO: Well, Zack - for the Zack Brown Band. It's - you know, you can kind of go either way, but special guest, Kid Rock showed up towards the end of the show. ROBERTS: Really?

CHETRY: Wow!

ROBERTS: Where was that at?

MARCIANO: At the Fox Theater, eighth row, center.

ROBERTS: Very cool.

CHETRY: So he just showed up or did he actually perform?

MARCIANO: Well, you know, he - he sang a couple of songs but, you know, it was kind of rumored that he would show up. It was a benefit concert for the theater that burned down in Athens and it was - it was a good time.

ROBERTS: That's great.

MARCIANO: All right. I wish you guys were there. You know, Kid Rock, I'm a big fan and he was true to form.

Fifty-five degrees in New York, 67 today in Atlanta. These numbers fairly typical for this time of year. This not so much. I just want to touch on this. We talked about how wet it's been across the South in the month of October. Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, all of these cities saw record cold, as far as average temperatures go, for the month of October.

A little bit of rain across parts of the Northeast this morning, but just, really just some sprinkles. Let's talk about things that are a little bit more important. Let's take about A-Rod last night. Ninth inning, top of nine, tie game, 4-4. The go ahead double. Nice work there, hitting off of Brad Lynch and the Yankees ended up winning it. They are up 3-1 in the series, as you know. Could take their 27th world title tonight. Temperatures in the lower 50s. Cool, mostly cloudy. Cliff Lee against AJ Burnett. If Cliff Lee is at all what he was in game one, this will probably go to game six. Either way, it will be another sleepless night in the Marciano household.

CHETRY: That's right. I love how you say it, look at A-Rod last night. Finally he's earning his money, right? Finally!

MARCIANO: Yes. He is. Finally.

CHETRY: There you go. All right.

ROBERTS: Thanks, Rob.

MARCIANO: See you guys soon.

ROBERTS: This morning's top stories just minutes away, including overnight breaking news. A massive explosion killing dozens near a military headquarters in Pakistan. We're live with the latest.

CHETRY: Also, the White House is carefully watching Afghanistan this morning as it grapples with the high-stakes decision on how many American troops to send to that country.

ROBERTS: And big-time bankruptcy. The fifth largest filing ever. A potential blow to thousands of small business owners this morning. Christine Romans and the latest on CIT.

Those stories and more coming your way at the top of the hour.

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