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Iraqi VP Vetoes Election Law, Shocking Politicians Who Drafted It; Veto Puts January Elections In Doubt

Aired November 18, 2009 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

STAN GRANT, CNN INT'L. ANCHOR, PRISM (voice over): Political crisis, a veto in Iraq threatens the country's upcoming elections and possibly the planned U.S. troop withdrawal.

Sentenced to death in Iran: Five people are facing execution for their part in the protests following June presidential election.

And in our "Prism Segment", the government and the gun in Pakistan. Would return to military rule end the country's militant threat?

(On camera): From CNN Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, this is PRISM where we take a story and look at it from multiple perspectives. I'm Stan Grant.

First, the main news, it took months for the Iraqi parliament to come up with a compromise election law and now in the time it takes to sign a veto, the critical measure is back to square one. And January scheduled elections are up in the air. Let's go to Mohammed Jamjoom in Baghdad for more on this story.

It has already been a tortuous process, Mohammed, about to get more difficult.

MOHAMMED JAMJOOM, CNN INT'L. CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Stan. Today Iraqi Sunni Arab Vice President Tariq Al-Hashimi shocked all the political leaders in Baghdad by vetoing the Iraqi election law. Now the reason he did this was because he didn't think Iraqi refugees, who are mostly out of the country, were represented well enough by the law.

At a press conference earlier in the day he explained what exactly about the law he was against. This is what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TARIQ AL-HASHIMI, VICE PRESIDENT, IRAQ (through translator): My objection is not to the entire law, but to the first article. The goal is to be fair to the Iraqi people abroad, especially the displaced people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JAMJOOM: Now, as I mentioned, this really sent shock waves through the Iraqi political community today. You had no less than Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki saying that this was a real threat to democracy here. You had the independent High Electoral Commission coming out and saying they just don't know right now if they have time to even get to the elections on time, to even print up the ballots to do what they need to do, review the law so that this thing can happen by the end of January. Which is the mandated deadline, by the constitution for these elections to take place.

Now, beyond those concerns are also the concerns of the U.S. U.S. Officials have said in the past few months that the only thing that could derail the U.S. troop withdrawal schedule would be delayed elections. Because if elections are delayed past the end of January, that could delegitimize the government. And who is the U.S. government going to work with at that point? - Stan.

GRANT: Mohammed, thank you for that. Mohammed Jamjoom joining us live there from Baghdad.

In Afghanistan, where they are hoping election controversy is now behind them, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Kabul, Wednesday. The unannounced visit comes on the day before President Hamid Karzai's inauguration. In recent weeks an increasingly violent Taliban have prompted heightened security in the Afghanistan capitol. Authorities are worried about another terror attack as Mr. Karzai is sworn in for another term after a disputed election, marred by widespread vote fraud.

The German cabinet has decided to extend the country's unpopular military mission in Afghanistan for another year. Parliamentary approve is needed, but that is expected. Troop levels are expected to remain at about $4,000.

Turning now to Iran, where the government says it has sentenced five people, to death, in connection with those protests over the disputed presidential election there. Another 81 people have been sentenced to between six months and 50 (ph) years in prison.

Some 4,000 people have been arrested, including a French academic, who is currently on trial in Tehran. Officials say defendants can appeal the verdicts.

U.S. President Barack Obama is in South Korea, right now, it is the fourth and final leg of his first presidential tour of Asia. Anti-war activists used his to protest in the streets of Seoul. This was the scene outside the U.S. embassy. Mr. Obama is in town for talks on Thursday with South Korean President Li Myung-bak. They are expected to discuss their stalled free trade pact, but the biggest issue will likely be getting North Korea back to the nuclear negotiating table.

Now, Senior White House Correspondent Ed Henry is traveling with Mr. Obama. He interviewed the president on a range of topics, including efforts to reign in Iran's nuclear program. Here is what the president had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We mobilize the international community to present a credible, legitimate offer to the Iranians that would show their intentions to pursue peaceful nuclear energy, as opposed to weapons. Iran, so far, has not been able to say yes to that offer. And as a consequence, you know, have validators like the International Atomic Energy Agency, you have the P-5, plus one, which includes Russia and China, all saying to Iran, you are on the wrong side of history here.

And that means that if Iran continues to rebuff the international community, us setting up sanctions or other measures that put pressure on them, becomes much easier.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRANT: Mr. Obama is also reacting to news from Israel that as many as 900 new homes could be built in an East Jerusalem neighborhood. He told a U.S. news network that new settlements will make it harder to achieve peace in the region, and it won't make Israel any safer. Plans for construction in the Ghilo (ph) neighborhood have not received final approval and building would not begin for some time.

Britain, Russia, the EU, and the U.N. secretary general joined in criticism of the announcement.

For decades the military has dominated Pakistani politics, directly or from behind the scenes. In tonight's "Prism Segment" we take a look at the fragile democracy in Pakistan. Where protests are just one form of political expression. Could another round of military rule be in the country's future?

And politics meet pageantry in the U.K., as the Queen opens Parliament. Also, coming up on PRISM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GRANT: Pakistan, this week, has been a tale of two battles. On one side, terror attacks on an almost daily basis. The Peshawar area has been hit by five bombings in the past 10 days; a total of eight attacks since early October.

The worst attack came on October 28, the massive car bomb killed at least 100 people and left at least 200 others wounded. It was the country's deadliest attack in two years.

At the same time Pakistan's army, this week, is reporting significant progress on its operation against the Taliban in South Waziristan. In its month-long offensive, the army says it has control of most major towns in the Taliban stronghold.

Now, as these battles rage, Pakistan is beset by a economic slump, corruption, and an unpopular government. It is a recipe that in the past has lead to military take over. In our "Prism Segment" we peel back the political veneer in Pakistan and ask the question, could the past be a guide to the future. Here is CNN's Reza Sayah.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

REZA SAYAH, CNN INT'L. CORRESPONDENT (voice over): February 2008, in landmark elections, Pakistanis put an end to more than eight years of military rule, headed by the unpopular President Pervez Musharraf. But nearly two years into a democratically elected civilian government, as Pakistanis, who is running the country. And many, from shopkeepers to students, will tell you it is still the army.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I have to say the army that is more powerful.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Actually, I think all the freedoms are taken by the army, not the civilian government.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Army has been very powerful, since from the very beginning.

SAYAH: Indeed for more than half of its 62-year history Pakistan has been led by army generals. Three of those generals overthrew civilian governments, citing corruption and incompetence.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: In comparative terms, it has - I mean, it is powerful is gradually increased.

SAYAH: Defense analyst Ishia Sedika (ph) has written a book on how the military's power here is bad for democracy. Sedika (ph) says behind the scenes the army is still the dominant institution; steeped in politics, still shaping policy.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All strategic decisions are taken by the military.

SAYAH: Sedika (ph) says when newly elected President Asif Ali Zardari unilaterally declared last year, Pakistan would not be the first to use nuclear weapons, against rival India, the army made it clear, this was not his place to speak.

(On camera): So, they were offended?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, hugely. How could the president take a major step? Take a major policy decision, without informing the military, or asking them for their opinion.

SAYAH (voice over): The civilian government recently praised the Kerry-Lugar bill; $7.5 billion in U.S. economic aid to help fight insurgents, monitor Pakistan's nuclear program, and limit the military's influence in government. But the army stepped in. Publicly expressing concern that conditions of the bill were bad for national security.

(On camera): The reaction to the Kerry-Lugar bill, what did it reveal about the military?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It revealed the single most important fact, that the military is very powerful.

SAYAH: Analysts say recent disagreements between the army and the civilian government have escalated tensions. Rumors and questions have swirled. Is the army planning on pushing out President Zardari? A man critics say is selling out Pakistan's interests to the U.S.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: John Kerry is the last man, who looses.

SAYAH: Not a chance says analyst and retired General Jamsheet Iyaslan (ph) who rejects any claim that the army is out for power.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The army is not really in the government. Let me say it loud and clear. And this, I know for sure.

SAYAH: But the general adds few decisions in Pakistan are made without the army's approval. To many here, two years after giving up official control, the military still has too much power, all behind the facade of a democratically elected civilian government.

Reza Sayah, CNN, Islamabad.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRANT: Now, Reza alluded to it, but let's take a closer look at Pakistan's history of military rule, going back to 1959, when General Ayub Kahn, too power in a military coup. He led Pakistan for 10 years and handed over power in 1969 to General Yahya Khan; he resigned three years later, after Bangladesh won its independence, handing power to civilian Zilfikar Ali-Bhutto. General Muhammad Zia Ul-Haq took over in 1977, seizing power from President Bhutto and later having him executed. Zia was in charge until he was killed in a plane crash in 1988.

Now after a period of civilian rule there was another coup in 1999, General Pervez Musharraf took control, deposing Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf declared himself president in 2001, won election in 2007, and resigned 2008.

Now let's hear some different voices on this issue, starting with the one person how perhaps most passionately supports the present democracy in Pakistan, the current President Asif Ali-Zardari. Listen to this from his United Nations' speech in September.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ASIF AL-ZARDARI, PRESIDENT OF PAKISTAN: Democracy in Pakistan is of great importance; not only for our country but also for our region and the world. Pakistan has struggled hard for democracy. My late wife, Benazir Bhutto, led the fight for democracy and lay down her life for it. Following in the footsteps of her great father, Zilfikar Ali-Bhutto, she made the ultimate sacrifice so that our nation may live in democracy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRANT: The United States has been strong in its support of Mr. Zardari and democratic rule.

RICHARD HOLBROOKE, U.S. SPECIAL ENJOY TO PAKISTAN: Our goal must be unambiguously to support and help stabilize a democratic Pakistan, headed by its elected president Asif Ali-Zardari.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRANT: Richard Holbrooke, there, the U.S. special envoy to Pakistan.

Now, despite these votes of confidence, some analysts now suggesting history may repeat itself. Hasan Azkari Rizvi of the University of Punjab, in Lahore, writes: "The current domestic political situation does not promise a secure future for democracy in Pakistan. If anything, the people's trust in the political institutions and leadership in power is fast eroding, increasing the space for maneuver for state institutions and non-democratic forces."

And Indiana University's Jamshid Chachsi (ph) writes, "Many social groups, including entrepreneurs, the burgeoning middle class, and the Westernized upper class, have long viewed the military as the only stable and functional national institution. Essentially, Pakistan's armed forces remain the administration of last resort. One frequently called upon to lead that nation out of chaos.

So will Pakistan's military stay out of politics? Or would that be the best thing for the country?

Joining us from Islamabad is retired Lt. General Talat Masood.

General, it is often said, and written, about Pakistan that to rule there you need the support of Allah, the army, and the America. You can't get away from the fact that the army is embedded into the power structure in Pakistan.

LT. GEN. TALAT MASOOD, PAKISTANI ARMY (RET). Yes, that is very true. There is no doubt about it, because the army is undoubtedly the strongest institution in Pakistan. But one of the reasons why other institutions have not been so strong is because the army has really been in power for so long, and continues to sort of exercise power, even when it is not in the government. So, I think one of the reasons why other institutions are weak is because democracy has not been given a chance to really sort of move forward in Pakistan.

And the leadership, of course, the civilian leadership at the moment is somewhat disappointing in the sense that they do not realize that how important it is that they should be effective leaders in order to really strengthen the institutions and strengthen democracy in Pakistan.

GRANT: General let's look at the influence of outsiders, there is namely the United States in this. If you look at history, the United States supported, before General Zia Al-Haq, during the Soviet war with the mujahedeen in Afghanistan. It also supported Pervez Musharraf in the war against terror. To what extent is the army -or the U.S. has facilitated the military's power base in Pakistan?

MASOOD: Well, this has been really very unfortunate in that sense. Because, Americans, although they themselves have been one of the - sort of the oldest democracy in the world - and they have been trying to say, at least, always, they have been making statements about promoting democracy worldwide. But when it comes to actually practical implementation it is just the opposite. And we found that in Pakistan a democracy and civilian institutions have suffered enormously as a consequence of the way that the American administrations -and even the Congress have supported, you know, the military dictators for years, in order to sort of promote their own self national interest, at the expense of Pakistani interests.

GRANT: General, we mentioned in the story we just ran, previously, the Kerry-Lugar bill, which is going to bring significant aid to Pakistan, but put restrictions on the role of the military. Are we seeing here the U.S. stepping away from supporting the military and supporting more the civilian government? And is the civilian government strong enough to warrant that support?

MASOOD: Actually there is no doubt that I think the Americans have realized that their leadership there, and the administration, and also the Congress, that it is very important, if you want to have long-term stability and also a relationship with Pakistan, to promote democracy. But at the same time I think they are also, like all of us here, rather disappointed in the way that the present civilian leadership is performing. Because performance legitimacy is as important as, I think, as legitimacy, otherwise, through constitutional or other means, or through elections.

So, I think this civilian leadership also has to understand that it has to play a very effective role at this time, when Pakistan faces one of its greatest challenges, both internally and externally. And unless it gives good leadership, people will always, you know, try to look to the army or to other institutions to sort of support or to replace the civilian leadership.

But I think the conditions are such that the civilian leadership will continue but at the same time, it is important for it to realize that if it wants to really have control over foreign policy, over defense policy, and also inspire confidence in the people, and be able to fight this great - to be able to sort of face these challenges, then it is very important that they must improve their performance, both especially in terms of inspiring confidence, in removing -- sort of reducing corruption, and also bringing in good governance.

GRANT: General we appreciate your thoughts there. General Talat Masood, joining us from Islamabad. The general almost 40 years in the Pakistan army.

And we want to know what you think. Is Pakistan likely to return to military rule? Send your thoughts to my Twitter account, that is StanGrantCNN.

A massive heat wave hits Australia. We will take a look at your global weather picture next. And some politics and a whole lot of pomp. That was the scene this afternoon in London. We'll bring you the details.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GRANT: Pomp, pageantry, and politics at the ceremonial state opening of the British Parliament today. Queen Elizabeth II outlined the government's plans for the next session, as she delivered her annual speech, written for her, of course, by the government. She highlighted battling climate change, and strengthening financial regulation, as the main priorities.

We've just months to go until a national election. This speech is also a manifesto for the ruling Labour Party. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is trying to woo voters with promises of new social programs.

Well, time now to take a look at the global weather picture. Mari Ramos is at the CNN World Weather Center. She is going to make me feel very home sick now, and tell me how hot it is in Australia.

MARI RAMOS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes, very high - you know what? Record high temperatures. And I know, Stan. I know you enjoy those warm temperatures. We are getting here into the dangerous levels. Record highs across the entire first half of November. Some of the hottest temperatures ever recorded across parts of Australia.

I don't even know if you are going to like this one, 47 degrees Celsius, in the shade, across parts of the Outback, here. This combination of hot temperatures, strong wind, and low humidity, has prompted one of the first - catastrophic, is what they are calling it -fire warnings across parts of South Australia.

What is happening here is, we are having a very strong cold front that is going to be moving through here. That has helped increase the wind. There is nothing in the way of rain in the forecast for now. We may get some scattered rain showers in the next day or so, but until, especially on Thursday it is going to be a critical time. And we are going to see that fire danger actually spreading into more of the eastern parts of New South Wales, just to the west of Sydney even, where the temperatures are expected to remain warm, even as we head into Saturday. Notice the scattered rain showers here. And the temperatures, it says, cooler. And by cooler, we mean, closer to the average. It is going to be huge difference for some of you, 20 degree difference.

But in Sydney, we are going to stay with the gradually warming temperatures over the next couple of days. Maybe a little bit more cloud cover, but the winds on the increase. Total fire ban for New South Wales, South Australia, and also Victoria. So, that is a developing story. We'll keep you posted on that.

Areas of low pressure riding along the jet stream, here, across Northern Europe. Meanwhile, to the south, temperatures remain some 10 degrees above the average for this time of year, I know. A lot of you guys have been sending me Tweets about this. Talking about how warm and how nice it actually feels. This is going to last through the weekend. Unfortunately, for you and Ireland, Northern Ireland, and much of the U.K., here; Denmark, and even into southern parts of Scandinavia, you are going to continue to see the very strong wind.

Already we are starting to see the winds pick up for you here, across southern parts of Ireland. And then, beginning to ease up just a little bit. You are getting a little bit of a break so to speak. Only about 50 kilometer per hour winds right now. But they are starting to increase, Stan, as you can see here, as we head into Copenhagen, and then eventually all the way up here into North Eastern Europe. Back to you.

GRANT: Mari, Thank you very much for that.

RAMOS: Sure.

GRANT: And that's it from me, Stan Grant, in Abu Dhabi.

END