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Prism

Saudi Arabia at War With Yemeni Rebels; Can the U.S. Win in Afghanistan?

Aired December 23, 2009 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JONATHAN MANN, HOST, PRISM: Saudi Arabia at war with Yemeni rebels. After weeks of fighting thousands of people are displaced and hundreds are dead. Today we take you inside a remote battle zone.

Plus, inching closer to closure in an international custody fight, Brazilian relatives say they will now hand over a nine-year-old boy to his American father.

And 30 years ago the Soviets entered Afghanistan with overwhelming force now the U.S. fights a different war in the same terrain. In our "Prism Segment" today decades on, what's changed? And is the war winnable?

From CNN Center in Atlanta, this is PRISM, where we take a story and look at it from multiple perspectives. Stan Grant is off, I'm Jonathan Mann.

We begin with the conflict along the border of Yemen and Saudi Arabia. It is taking a bloody toll on soldiers and civilians. Saudi Arabia has just announced that 73 members of its armed forces have been killed fighting Shiite rebels in Yemen. More than 2 dozen are missing. It is the first officials indication of the level of violence since the fighting intensified last month.

The conflict has also forced thousands of families to flee the area. Jane Ferguson has a report from inside Yemen.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JANE FERGUSON, CNN INT'L. CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Accessing Yemen's hidden war takes a grueling eight-hour drive from the capital city of San'a, through mountain ranges notorious for kidnappings; 15 military checkpoints later, the front line of fighting between the Yemeni army and the anti-government Houthi rebels is marked by Al Mazarak (ph) Camp. Thousands of internally displaced people have fled to this spot. A fraction of up to 200,000 estimated to have been affected by the fighting in the north of the country.

Fatama Al-Sabani and her husband fled their home in the Malaheet (ph) area, which has seen heavy fighting in recent months. In the panic they lost contact with their fellow villagers.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): There were airstrikes on our home. We were inside our houses. . We ran away following the other villagers who had already escaped. We ran from town to town from the Houthis.

FERGUSON (On camera): Maja Camp, here in north Yemen, is home to almost 20,000 refugees. The Yemenis who have fled the fighting between the Houthis and the Yemeni government. Most have come from the Saudi Arabia border and the area of Saddaa (ph), where their homes have been destroyed by heavy shelling. Those who run this camp they are unsure when these people will be able to return home.

(voice over): For those who make the three to five day journey on foot, even a canvass tent is no certainty. With almost three times as many people as the camp was originally meant to house, many are forced to sleep out in the open. With nothing more than a blanket to sleep on desperation is taking hold.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): We had a child inside the tent who died last night. He was only 20 days old. He died because of the cold weather.

MAI BARZI, UNHCR: These people, some of them it was their second displacement, so there were people who left the Saddaa (ph) area, running from the war, to Saudi Arabia's border. And then again they were pushed from Saudi Arabia border back to Yemen.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): They took us against our will. They kicked us out but kept all our belongings. They searched us at gunpoint.

FERGUSON: Neighboring Saudi Arabia's involvement in this conflict goes beyond turning back Yemeni refugees. Claiming rebels incurred into their territory in early November, their military launched attacks on the Houthis, turning Yemen's internal conflict into an international one.

With a blanket ban on outside media, November images like these obtained from the rebels, which can't be independently verified, are the only signs of what civilians are fleeing from. Despite claims by the rebels that Saudi Arabia launched attacks inside Yemen, both the Yemeni and Saudi governments maintain their armies stayed within their respective boundaries.

The Yemeni government also says the rebels are receiving outside support. An allegation repeated by Vice President Abdu Rabo Mansur Hadi on a visit to Mazarak Camp.

FERGUSON (On camera): These Houthi rebels, is there any evidence to prove that they are linked with a larger international network, like Al Qaeda or the Iranians? Or is it just domestic?

ABDU RABO MANSUR HADI, VICE PRESIDENT OF YEMEN: No, they have help for them.

FERGUSON: Who are helping them?

HADI: Iranians.

FERGUSON: Iranians. And how are they helping, with the weaponry?

HADI: No, by money.

FERGUSON: By money, OK.

(voice over): A conflict that broke out five years ago is only now beginning to attract international attention. With regional players involved focus has been on the political repercussions. But with aids agencies planning to help displaced people for up to a year, those caught up in this mostly uncovered war will continue to suffer in silence waiting to return home.

Jane Ferguson, for CNN, Mazarak Camp, Yemen.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: Turning now to another dispute that is crossing borders. A Pakistani Taliban commander says he sent thousands of fighters to Afghanistan to count the U.S. troop surge. The deputy to Pakistan Taliban Sheikh Hakula Massoud tells the Associated Press the Afghan Taliban needed our help, quoting here, "And we are helping them." He added that Taliban fighters remained committed to battling the Pakistan army in South Waziristan. A U.S. military spokesman dismissed the claims as rhetoric.

The U.S. and it's NATO allies are preparing to send thousands more troops to Afghanistan, but is the war there winnable? That is the focus of our "Prism Segment". General Stanley McChrystal is the U.S. commander in Afghanistan. President Obama answered his request to send in more troops, prompting lawmakers to ask if 30,000 more forces would make a difference.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. STANLEY MCCHRYSTAL, COMMANDER, U.S. FORCES, AFGHANISTAN: The president's decision rapidly resources our strategy recognizing that the next 18 months will likely be decisive and ultimately enable success. If fully support the president's decision.

The president also reiterated how this decision supports our national interests. Rolling back the Taliban is a prerequisite to the ultimately defeat of Al Qaeda. The mission is not only important it is also achievable. We can, and will, accomplish this mission.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANN: McChrystal's boss, Centcom Commander General David Petraeus was also called up to Capitol Hill, his response on Afghanistan was more measured.

GEN. DAVID PETRAEUS, COMMANDER, U.S. CENTCOM: While certainly difficult or different and in some ways tougher than Iraq, Afghanistan is no more hopeless than Iraq was when I took command there in February 2007. Indeed the level of violence and number of violent civilian deaths in Iraq were vastly higher than we have seen in Afghanistan. But achieving progress in Afghanistan will be hard and the progress likely will be slower in developing than was the progress achieved in Iraq.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANN: In a letter to "The New York Times", Florida resident Robert Prowler disagrees with General McChrystal's optimism, he writes, in part, "Winning wars takes more than courage and the desire to win. It requires," he says, "above all, the possibility of winning. In Afghanistan that possibility is nonexistent."

Many Russians would probably agree with that conclusion. And the Soviet experience of Afghanistan offers some striking parallels. From Moscow now, Senior International Correspondent Matthew Chance spoke with a man who has a very public warning for Barack Obama and his generals.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SR. INT'L. CORRESPONDENT (voice over): They entered as a super power with overwhelming force. But met tough resistance from Islamist fighters and were drawn into a grinding guerrilla war they just couldn't win.

It sounds chillingly familiar, but this was the Soviet experience in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

Viktor Yermakov, commander of Soviet forces there says by deploying more troops Washington is repeating Moscow's mistakes.

GEN. VIKTOR YERMAKOV, FMR. SOVIET AFGHAN COMMANDER (through translator): I can see only one difference it will make, that President Obama will be more often going to the airport to pay his last respects to U.S. soldiers killed in Afghanistan.

CHANCE: And General Yermakov knows what he's talking about. His Soviet 40th Army battled Afghan mujahedeen more than nine years. He personally oversaw the capture of Tora Bora, not once, but three times.

YERMAKOV (through translator): Whether it is Tora Bora or Kandahar, the same thing is happening to the Americans. We would deploy troops in a particular area, establish order, place a popular government and assist it. But when we left that government ran away.

CHANCE: Afghanistan was strewn with poignant warnings from that frustrating and bitter Soviet past, as we found in 2001, when we arrived at the new front line.

This is the Bagram Air Force Base, once a key Soviet base in its occupation of Afghanistan. I'll just step out of the way of the camera right now and show you the scene here on the runway. You can see the carcasses of these MIG and Sukhoy fighter bombers lying all around there, simply abandoned by the Soviet Union, as they withdrew from Afghanistan back in 1989.

Now, as then, the war cost billions contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union. General Yermakov says the money could be much better spent.

YERMAKOV (through translator): If the money that is now being spent on the troops is transferred to the restoration of the Afghanistan economy, it is education system, industrial enterprises, that will raise your authority. War has never raised anyone's profile in Afghanistan. It only provokes resistance.

CHANCE: By the time Moscow declared a face saving victory and pulled out, 15,051 Soviet troops had been killed. But what will the figure be before Washington leaves? Matthew Chance, CNN, Moscow.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: Well, at least one area where the parallels with the Soviet experience parts, is 2001, when the current conflict began, there have been at least 1540 deaths among coalition forces, far fewer than the Soviet casualty count. So far at least 934 U.S. troops have died, with more than 500 coalition deaths occurring this year alone.

The majority of Americans don't support the war in Afghanistan, but they do back President Obama's decision to send more troops. In a new CNN Opinion Research Corporation poll, 59 percent favor the decision to send in more forces; 39 percent oppose the decision. But in the same poll, only 18 percent feel the U.S. is winning in Afghanistan. When asked, in another poll, if they feel the war in Afghanistan will come to a successful conclusion, 30 percent said they felt more confident; 58 percent said they feel less confident. And in a CNN poll earlier this month, respondents were asked what they felt would be the most likely outcome for the U.S. in Afghanistan? 29 percent said victory, 57 percent said stalemate, 12 percent said defeat.

One more voice on the war in Afghanistan, he is our own Michael Ware, who has traveled and reported extensively in the region for more than a decade. In that time he has been embedded with troops and had contact with insurgents and offers a unique perspective from his own experience.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL WARE, CNN INT'L. CORRESPONDENT (On camera): America cannot win the war in Afghanistan. Certainly can't win it with bombs and bullets, and it can't win it in Afghanistan alone. For part of the answer lies here, where I'm standing, in these mountain valley in Pakistan on the Afghanistan border, because this is Al Qaeda and Taliban territory.

But at the end of the day it is the Pakistan military who tolerates the presence of groups like the Taliban. And it is not until America can start cutting deals with these people that there is any hope that the attacks on Americans troops coming to an end.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANN: Michael Ware, and some different views on the war in Afghanistan, in our "Prism Segment".

For five years all David Goldman has wanted is to bring his son home. Now a Brazilian judge's ruling and a family's decision could bring his quest to an end.

And Michael Schumacher is putting his Formula One legacy on the line as Mercedes makes an incredible announcement. Those stories ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MANN: Welcome back. You are watching PRISM.

David Goldman's epic five-year custody battle for his son appears to be over. Now, Goldman and his son could be on plane from Brazil, back to the United States by the end of the day. Ines Ferre joins us now from CNN New York with more on the disputes apparent conclusion.

This could be all over in a few hours?

INES FERRE, CNN INT'L. CORRESPONDENT: Well, it could be all over at least in the next day or so, Jonathan. We are just hearing that the regional court, in Rio, has said that the boy must be handed over by 9:00 a.m. local time tomorrow. Again, the regional court in Rio saying that boy must be handed over to David Goldman by 9:00 a.m. tomorrow morning, local time.

Now the attorney for the Brazilian family told CNN that they are not going to appeal anymore. That they want this to be a peaceful hand over, very smooth transition. There are in no rush, he wants to meet with an intermediary and have arrange a meeting between the maternal grandmother, in Brazil, and David Goldman, so that she can tell him a little bit about the boy, about what he likes, about the kinds of foods that he likes to eat, etc cetera.

We also spoke to the maternal grandmother in Rio, who said she was very disappointed with this ruling. And she said, and I'm going to quote here, "Shawn is very sad because it has never been his desire to go back to the States. He got especially disappointed about not having the right to speak in his own country about what he wanted for himself."

You will recall that she had been pushing for the courts to hear his testimony -Jonathan.

MANN: It is an agonizing personal but it is also a story with enormous economic impact. A trade agreement, actually two trade agreements worth billions were at stake in the U.S. Senate. Can you tell us about that and whether that is resolved?

FERRE: Yes, definitely. U.S. Senator Lautenberg, who had put a hold on the renewal of a trade agreement, worth more than $2 billion, where tariffs would be removed for some Brazilian products. And that hold was lifted as soon as the decision was made. So, definitely, there was pressure, even from legislators, who were trying to pressure the Brazilian court to make sure that that boy was handed over to David Goldman.

MANN: Ines Ferre in New York. Thanks very much.

INES: You're welcome.

MANN: A Chinese court could send a chilling message to pro-democracy activist Friday when it sentences prominent dissident Liu Xiaobo. Liu was found guilty of inciting subversion after a one-day trial. The former university lecturer and literary critic faces a possible sentence of 15 years in prison. Liu is a co-author of "Chapter Eight: A Declaration Calling for Political Reform and Greater Human Rights and an End to One- Party Rule in China". A police report says Liu engaged in agitation activities aimed at overthrowing the socialist system.

A major manhunt is underway in Colombia for those behind the murder of a provincial governor. Luis Francisco Cuellar was found with his throat slit, one day after he was kidnapped from his home by suspected rebels. He is the highest profile political leader abducted since President Alvaro Uribe took office seven years ago. Officials are blaming the rebel group, FARC, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. The governor's wife described his kidnapping.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HIMELDA GALINDA DE CUELLAR, MURDERED GOVERNOR'S WIFE (through translator): He was lying on the floor, when two people pulled him with them and the other two were holding their weapons while wearing their military uniforms.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Did they take him in underwear?

DE CUELLAR: They took him in pajamas and barefoot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANN: Thousands of soldiers are searching for the killers. It is unclear whether they intended but murder Cuellar. He had been kidnapped four times before.

Well, thousands of Europeans are still struggling to get home for the holidays with no help from the weather. In fact, it may get worse. And weather may have been a factor in Jamaica, where a plane full of passengers slid off the runway and almost ended up in the Caribbean. A very close call, when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MANN: A team of investigators from the U.S. will help Jamaican authorities find out why a passenger plane overran a runway Tuesday night. Dozens of people were taken to the hospital with minor injuries after a terrifying skid almost to waters edge. Most have been released now. American Airlines plane was landing at the airport, near Kingston, in heavy rain.

Scary stuff, it is not quite that bad in most parts of the world, but travel is still going to be a problem for a lot of people. Let's check the global weather picture and more on people moving around. Lola Martinez is at the World Weather Center.

(WEATHER REPORT)

MANN: Well, one more person on the move, Formula One legend Michael Schumacher is apparently going to climb back behind the wheel next year. The seven-time champ retired three years ago. But he's never been far away from the sport he dominated as a Ferrari driver. Earlier this year a neck injury kept Schumacher from returning to the track to fill in for an injured Ferrari driver. Now, Schumacher has signed a three-year contract with Mercedes, which has taken over last year's championship, winning Braun (ph) GP Team. So he's back. He's back and gone.

That is it for me, for now. "The Screening Room" is up next after an update of the headlines. I'm Jonathan Mann. Don't go away.

END