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Possible Military Response to Bomb Plot; 9/11 Lessons Forgotten?; U.S. Air Marshals' Watchful Eyes
Aired December 30, 2009 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Time now for your top-of-the-hour reset.
I'm Tony Harris in the CNN NEWSROOM.
It is 8:00 in the evening on the Arabian Peninsula, where U.S. bombs may fall on al Qaeda targets in Yemen.
And U.S. airport security. Experts decipher body language to spot terrorists. We will talk about behavioral screening.
And across the country, will 2010 be the year for an economic comeback? Chief Business Correspondent Ali Velshi looks into his crystal ball.
Let's do this -- let's get started by getting you up to speed on the Flight 253 terror investigation and its fallout.
The government has extended new air travel security measures put in place after the attempted bombing. A decision on whether to extend them further will be revisited in a directive due out tonight.
President Obama wants a report on security lapses on his desk tomorrow. He calls the Flight 253 terror incident a systemic failure.
And senior administration officials say the U.S. is weighing retaliatory strikes in Yemen. They would target al Qaeda camps.
Let's focus for a moment on a possible military response to the bomb plot targeting Flight 253.
Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr reports.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Tony, al Qaeda in Yemen is now in the crosshairs of both the U.S. and Yemeni government. The question is, what may happen next?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
STARR (voice-over): What did President Obama mean when he said this about the failed Christmas Day attack...
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We will not rest until we find all who were involved and hold them accountable. STARR: A senior U.S. official tells CNN that military and intelligence experts, as part of an already existing effort against al Qaeda, are looking at possible targets to strike in Yemen if the president orders retaliation for the attempted bombing of Northwest Airlines Flight 253, an attack that al Qaeda in Yemen says it organized.
The U.S. official says, "We'd do it if we could tie it back to the right people." Easier said than done.
The first problem, finding who is responsible. The U.S. believes al Qaeda members in Yemen scattered after recent air strikes may have killed several members. Those air strikes were aimed at hitting al Qaeda even before the Northwest Airlines attack. If there is retaliation now, would the U.S. or Yemen conduct the strikes?
The whole U.S./Yemeni relationship is now under wraps. Officially, the U.S. won't say who carried out the recent strikes. There is a secret agreement with Yemen to keep it quiet, one American official says. But a growing number of U.S. military officials privately say the Yemeni military doesn't have the ability to do it on its own.
So it may be that U.S. ship-launched cruise missiles, fighter jets or armed drones would be used in a retaliation strike, but it won't be made public. All of this underscores the U.S. military is urgently trying to help Yemeni troops train to fight al Qaeda.
In 2006, the Pentagon spent less than $5 million on Yemeni counterterrorism units. This year, $67 million, more than a 1,300 percent increase.
The head of U.S. intelligence earlier this year made clear why it's so important.
ADM. DENNIS BLAIR (RET.), NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DIRECTOR: Yemen is reemerging as a jihadist battleground. The capabilities of terrorist groups in East Africa will increase in the next year.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
STARR: So, what could be on the target list? Well, U.S. officials say, ballpark, they think there are about 200 al Qaeda operatives in Yemen around a central core leadership and training camps. And there is a good deal of concern that the Nigerian suspect in the Northwest attack may have trained at one of those camps -- Tony.
HARRIS: Barbara, appreciate it. Thank you.
All passengers flying out of Amsterdam, Schiphol Airport to the United States will now undergo a full body scan. The technology could have detected the explosive powder hidden in the suspect's underwear.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) GUUSJE TER HORST, DUTCH INTERIOR MINISTER (through translator): All aspects of security investigated in detail, but the detection gates only detect metal, which is why we carry out samples and do body searches. This system, of course, is not watertight, which is why, meanwhile, we have decided to start using body scanners on flights to the states.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARRIS: And then there's this -- authorities in Africa suspect a link between the attempted bombing of a U.S. plane and an incident in Somalia. They say a man was arrested last month trying to board a flight with chemicals that could be used as an explosive device. He tried to get on a plane in Mogadishu that was eventually headed for Dubai. The man was handed over to Somali authorities and is believed to be in custody.
More now on our top story, the failed terror plot against that Detroit-bound plane. Security experts say some of the lessons of September 11th have been forgotten and gaps in airport security remain.
The story now from CNN's Jim Acosta.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JIM ACOSTA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): More than eight years after the attacks on September 11th, the attempted bombing of Flight 253 proved terrorists are still exploiting gaps in aviation security. One hole that worries security experts is right at the top of the TSA.
CLARK KENT ERVIN, FMR. HOMELAND SECURITY INSPECTOR GENERAL: It's really shocking that there isn't a permanent TSA administrator in place.
ACOSTA: It took President Obama eight months to pick somebody to lead the TSA, but Erroll Southers, the current head of intelligence at Los Angeles International Airport, has been in limbo since September. Republican Senator Jim DeMint is blocking the appointment in protest of White House plans to fully unionize the TSA.
SEN. JIM DEMINT (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: There's a constant need to adjust and to be flexible, to use imagination to change things. We cannot ask a third-party union boss whether or not we can move a screener from one station to another. That's what collective bargaining does.
ACOSTA: Just two weeks ago, the acting administrator of the TSA was hauled before a congressional hearing to explain how one of the agency's passenger screening manuals got leaked on to the Internet. At the time, Gale Rossides, a holdover from the Bush administration, insisted the flying public was safe.
REP. SHEILA JACKSON LEE (D), TEXAS: Where are we with respect to security as it relates to the traveling public? GALE ROSSIDES, TSA ACTING ADMINISTRATOR: Madam Chairwoman, the system is very strong and I am very confident in saying that.
ACOSTA: Tell that to the 9/11 Commission which warned five years ago the TSA and Congress must give priority attention to improving the ability of screening checkpoints to detect explosives on passengers. To this day, most air travelers pass through magnetometers which won't pick up bomb materials hidden in clothing. A GAO report issued in October found TSA has an array of ten passenger screening technologies, but the agency has not deployed any of these technologies to airports nationwide.
The TSA spent $30 million on bomb detecting puffer machines, only to find they have frequent maintenance issues. New body imaging scanners, which could have made the difference in Detroit, are years away from widespread use.
ERVIN: Had technology called whole body imaging, back scatter machines, millimeter wave machines been in place at these airports, at a minimum it would have noticed that something anomalous was taped to this suspect's leg.
ACOSTA: Add to that the 9/11 Commission's plea to improve the terrorist no-fly list, a list that did not include the suspected bomber on Flight 253, and a top security expert says you have a big problem.
ERVIN: I think the flying public has reason for concern.
ACOSTA (on camera): With new cockpit doors and armed pilots, experts note aviation has seen more security upgrades than the ports and borders, which is why an attack on an airliner would send a disturbing message of failure.
Jim Acosta, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HARRIS: So, what can the government do to make flying safer? And are you willing to live with what might be required?
First, though, our "Random Moment" in 60 seconds.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: All right. Time now for our "Random Moment of the Day."
You hear motorcyclists refer to their ride as a hog, but this dude -- dude -- would rather scale his gator. Yes, sounds as it looks. And boy, does that mean mean.
All right. This critter was a 10-footer before leatherworker Benny Orman (ph) got to him. Benny (ph) says he had to soak the gator's hide in the swimming pool for three weeks or so before starting work.
And there you have it. The hog, that's a gator. Your "Random Moment of the Day."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: Could you spot a terrorist on site? It is job number one for U.S. air marshals, who are now out in force after Friday's incident at Detroit International.
CNN's Brian Todd takes a hard look at the science of behavioral screening.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The homeland security secretary answers a key question about the failed Christmas Day terror attack a aboard a U.S. passenger jet. Were there U.S. air marshals on board?
JANET NAPOLITANO, U.S. HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: They are posted randomly on different flights. And as far as I know on this flight there was not one.
TODD: But another official at the Department of Homeland Security says, since that incident Friday, the number of air marshals on flights has significantly increased. Current and former air marshals tell us, if there had been a marshal present, they don't believe suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab would ever have gotten on board that plane.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Police officer. Drop the gun!
TODD: As depicted in CNN's previous reporting, marshals are trained to blend in, but to be forceful almost instantly. The marshals we spoke with says one of the most important things they do is monitor the behavior of passengers. Experts say on board this includes observing passengers as they head to the bathrooms.
Rafi Ron is a former Israeli air marshal who now has his own security consulting business.
RAFI RON, CEO, NEW AGE SECURITY SOLUTIONS: We can watch the behavior before he actually gets to the bathroom. We can see what the person carries with him when he goes into the bathroom. We can look at how much time is spent inside.
TODD: But experts say suspicious behavior has got to be detected on the ground first. One former air marshal told us he would often discretely move around waiting areas at gates, watching passengers and even eavesdropping on them.
Most, he said, could be quickly eliminated as suspects, but some, he would have to keep track of, those who travel alone, who seem nervous, focused on something other than their immediate surroundings, and those who have what he called the 1,000-yard stare. But Ron says, in Israel, they take extra measures.
(on camera): But it's not just security people who have to be trained in behavior recognition, right?
RON: That is correct. Actually, our most important asset when it comes to detection or suspicious behavior are all the employees that we have all over the airport. The presence of security personnel and law enforcement people is extremely limited.
TODD: So, you're talking ticket counter people.
RON: I'm talking ticket counter people. I'm the looking about the janitors who are cleaning our -- the restrooms. I'm talking about the people at the parking lot. I'm talking about the people on the curbside. These are people that are so familiar with the regular activities and will immediately recognize irregularities when they take place.
TODD: Rafi Ron says these are employees who can see passengers in areas of the airport where they may not be security cameras or security personnel. He makes a strong point that this is not racial profiling we're talking about, but behavioral profiling -- facial movements, body language, not a person's ethnicity or gender.
Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HARRIS: Airport security in the United States is under the microscope after the attempt to blow up a Detroit-bound flight. There are calls for more use of body scanners and even, as you just heard, behavioral screening.
We're going to spend a little more time with Rafi Ron. And Rafi is president of New Age Security Solutions, an airport security consulting firm.
Rafi, and the reason I wanted to talk to you, I want to push you a little bit on this idea of behavioral screening. I know you know what you're talking about here, but I just want to hear it again from you.
Do you believe that suspicious behavior can really be detected before a suspect gets on a flight? That if you know what you are looking for, you can find these people in airport terminals, in waiting areas and ticket areas, security checkpoints?
RON: Well, let's first set the expectation at the right level.
We are not talking about a silver bullet solution that will solve all our problems. We are talking about one more layer that has turned out to be very important and was relatively neglected during the last eight years.
Directly to the question, I would say that, yes, there are a lot of indicators prior to an attack that an attack is going to take place. These are behavioral indicators. That's the weak point of terrorists, in containing their behavior and preparing to deal with behavioral situations. HARRIS: Yes. Who is doing this kind of screening, in your view? In your perfect world, what employees at the airport are charged with doing this kind of screening?
RON: Well, it should be part of the culture. It's not just a specific location. This is why in airports where we operate, like Miami International, we took the time to train the wide employee population all the way to janitors and the curbside porters and everybody else in detecting suspicious behavior and reporting it, giving them the confidence to do it in a reasonable way.
Eight years ago, when we were given the first opportunity to draw the lesson, when Richard Reid carried an explosive device to an American Airline flight from Charles de Gaulle Airport, we drew the wrong conclusion. We started to ask passengers to take off their shoes.
HARRIS: Yes.
RON: Obviously, that was a limited scope of the problem and a rather failed approach to it. But when we studied the Richard Reid case, Richard Reid actually left a trail of suspicion behind him all the way before he boarded the aircraft, and even when he was on the aircraft itself. But we failed to pick it up. And later on we failed to learn the lesson.
HARRIS: Yes. Well, what's the lesson of -- and maybe in some respects it's the same lesson from the Richard Reid case. What's the lesson of the Christmas Day attempt, in your mind?
RON: Well, first of all, I think it has great similarity to the Richard Reid case. Once again, we have a single terrorist, supported by a bigger organization that provided him with a device.
The device is based on PETN, same explosive used in both attacks. The device contains no metallic component in it, which allows the terrorist to take it through the metal detection system at the checkpoint. And so on and so on. But one more thing is, of course, the issue of behavior.
HARRIS: Yes.
RON: In the Richard Reid case, we have a lot of information. We don't have yet enough information about the Abdulmutallab case in terms of his behavior. But two things are already emerging.
One, there's been a report about what was described as nervous pacing behavior before taking off or before boarding in Amsterdam. And secondly, the action that he has taken before activating his device -- in other words, going to the bathroom the way he did and the suspicious activity that he engaged himself in -- none of that was detected, none of that was responded to, and obviously we failed again.
HARRIS: Yes. Rafi, I want you to be right about all of this, obviously, but let me push it a little more here, this idea of behavioral screening. Look, it's more art than science, isn't it? You're making assumptions here. You have to. And I'm just curious, after this Christmas Day attempt, shouldn't we be questioning all assumptions?
RON: Well, of course we should question almost every assumption that we made until now, and every assumption that we will be making in the future. They should all be under continuous questioning. But one thing is obviously emerging, that the concept that we adopted since 9/11, which is that we can actually prevent an attack simply by using technology to screen for items, is a failed approach.
HARRIS: Yes. Yes.
RON: It failed us again and again and again from 9/11 to Richard Reid, to the liquid bombers in London and now to Abdulmutallab.
HARRIS: I hear that a lot, that we're spending too much time looking for weapons and not spending enough time looking at people.
Make the argument for stepped-up behavioral screening and tell me, more specifically, why this isn't ethnic profiling, which you say it isn't.
RON: Yes. Well, first of all, as far as ethnic profiling, I'm against it not only from the legal point of view and the moral point of view, but also from the professional point of view.
In my past, I was director of security at Tel Aviv Ben Gurion Airport. That airport was supposed to be attacked by a Palestinian or an Arab terrorist, but it was never attacked by one.
It was attacked, though, by a group of Japanese terrorists, leaving 24 people dead on the ground. And later on by the German terrorists in the mid '80s.
This is an important lesson. We look around at who are the people that al Qaeda is now recruiting in the United States, and in western Europe, and in other parts of the world. They don't answer to a clear ethnic profile.
So, the idea of following ethnicity as a key to identifying terrorists is a failed idea. And I strongly recommend it that we will not go down this way.
HARRIS: I am glad you are making that point.
RON: Part of the behavior pattern recognition program, by the way, is to actually convince the officers and other people not to use racial profiling.
HARRIS: Rafi, appreciate it. Thanks for your time.
RON: Thank you.
HARRIS: Rafi Ron for us.
Let's get you caught up very quickly here with our top stories.
We are getting reports of American casualties from a suicide bomb attack in Afghanistan. Military officials say a bomber wearing an explosive vest struck a base in Khost province. Reports on the casualty toll range from five to nine people. It is not known how many were killed or injured.
The Taliban in Pakistan is claiming responsibility for a deadly attack on Shiite Muslims. A suicide blast Monday killed dozens of people and sparked rioting.
A British man held hostage by militants in Iraq for more than two years has been freed. Officials say Peter Moore is in good health.
We will get another check of our top stories in 20 minutes.
And still to come, this year, New Year's Eve and Times Square is going to look a little green. We will show you how in today's "Energy Fix."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: All right. Times Square is getting ready to ring in the new year with the greenest ball drop ever. The crowds have not gathered quite yet -- oh, OK -- but CNNMoney.com's Poppy Harlow is live in Times Square with today's "Energy Fix."
Terrific. All right. Good to see you, Poppy.
POPPY HARLOW, CNNMONEY.COM: Good to see you, too, Tony. You're a little warmer than I am.
HARRIS: Yes, a little bit.
HARLOW: It is freezing here in Times Square. And it is going to be the greenest New Year's Eve ever if you talk about the ball that is dropping.
You see the famous New Year's Eve ball right behind me. They are testing it in just a few minutes for the first time here in Times Square, at the top of this building. But the reason it's greener, there are more than 32,000 LED lights, not only on this ball, but also on the numbers, the 2010 numbers that will you see lit up at midnight tomorrow night.
They are all LED lights. What that means, Tony, is that this ball drop will be 78 percent more energy efficient than back in 2007.
And when you talk about the energy it takes to power it, it's not very much. For every hour that it's lit, it's going to take the same amount of energy as to heat two conventional ovens. So, it's amazing, the energy that's being saved here.
But it's not just something they are doing here in Times Square. You can do it at home, too, because the same technology lighting this ball is something you can use in your home right now using LED lights.
We talked to the head of Philips North America today. He talked about what it means for the average consumer.
Take a quick listen to that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ED CRAWFORD, CEO, PHILIPS LIGHTING NORTH AMERICA: Well, for the average consumer, they hate changing light bulbs. And the beautiful thing about this product is it lasts 20 times longer than what they're using now. So, that's 20 less trips down to the store, it's 20 less times they have to get out the ladder. It saves a tremendous amount of energy but, also, it saves because you don't have to replace the light bulb very often.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: All right. Well, these are those LED light bulbs, Tony, that he's talking about. You can get them at your hardware store.
These are Philips. They are selling them right now at Home Depot. You can get them really anywhere, though, a lot of different brands out.
And I should also note, Tony, a lot of people in Times Square are working to help power the ball drop. Take a look at this video we're going to pull up for you.
This is the Duracell pedal power video. People in Times Square pedaling away for 166 hours. That is going to, Tony, power the lighting of the 2010 numbers tomorrow night -- Tony.
HARRIS: Oh, that's good stuff.
Hey, ,my understanding is you're going to be on the big New Year's Eve show with Andersen Cooper there.
HARLOW: Yes.
HARRIS: So give us -- you're going to be there. So give us a hint as to what we might see tomorrow.
HARLOW: Sure.
Well, tomorrow night I hear it's going to be even colder, snowing and maybe a little rain. So I'm looking forward to the weather.
No, but I'll be down on the street reporting with Don Lemon. That special starts at 11:00 Eastern Time tomorrow night.
I am told there will be a million people down here at Times Square. And, of course, New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, he's going to flip the famous switch you see behind me for the ball drop. He's going to be joined by some New York City school kids for that as well. So, again, that's CNN's special coverage, tomorrow night at 11:00 -- Tony.
HARRIS: Can't wait. I'll be watching you, warm and toasty at home.
HARLOW: Yes, you'll be toasty warm and I'll be freezing. Have some champagne for me, please, Tony.
HARRIS: I'll be thinking of you. Poppy, good to see you. Thank you.
HARLOW: Thanks.
HARRIS: Still to come in the NEWSROOM, why has Yemen become such a focus in the battle against terrorism? We are breaking down the threat, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: You know, beyond the bombing of the USS Cole more than nine years ago, we haven't paid much attention to the nation of Yemen in a long time. But the Christmas Day attempted bombing of a U.S. plane has changed all that.
CNN's John Roberts discussed Yemen's role with two experts on the Middle East earlier this morning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PROF. FAWAZ GERGES, LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS: What al Qaeda has done is to embed itself in local -- within local conflicts. Al Qaeda appears to have merged with local conflicts, and this is where the danger lies.
So, you not only have an al Qaeda footprint, an alien one, you have al Qaeda now leading the struggles in the south against the north. And also, you have tens of thousands of Somali refugees. Somalia is a refugee state. So you have interaction between al Qaeda members in Yemen and Somalia.
You have the pressure -- the U.S. pressures in the tribal areas in Pakistan are forcing al Qaeda to send some of its assets to Yemen. And also, you have arms smuggling in Yemen.
John, I go to Yemen quite often. You can buy tanks in Yemen. So, the ability to purchase tanks and guns and missiles is out there, and this is why Yemen now is becoming a major problem, not only for the United States, but the integrity -- the integrity and unity of Yemen itself is at stake today.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: If ever there were a recipe for extremism, it sounds like it's there.
Now, some members of Congress have advocated preemptive strikes against al Qaeda targets in Yemen. And there was a strike on or about December the 17th. Some reports that it was U.S. cruise missiles fired from U.S. warships. The U.S. military has been very quiet about all of this.
But would preemptive strikes work there?
IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP: Well, it certainly struck me as preemptive, what we saw back a couple weeks ago. And I think if the intelligence is good, I think the U.S. standing policy to try to go after these guys -- and they're not going to talk about it to you or I -- are they going to work in terms of the kind of insurgency and the deep-seated problems that both of us have been talking about? Absolutely not.
This is a structural issue with an utter lack of capacity to deliver resources, not just pervasive corruption, but a truly -- you know, you're talking about a water table that's falling apart. If you were to send billions of dollars to Yemen right now, you wouldn't be able, literally, to actually give it to the folks on the ground. There's no mechanism or infrastructure.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARRIS: OK. More focus on Yemen now with CNN's Josh Levs.
And, Josh, last hour you showed us the map. And what do you have coming up for us?
JOSH LEVS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, something similar, Tony. What I want to do now is play right out of what Fawad (ph) was just telling us, because this is really important.
Let's zoom into the screen, actually. I want to show you, if we can, he was just talking about Somalia. So we're going to do that down here. We're going to go to Yemen. We're also going to take a look at Somalia, because it's important to understand the context of what he was just talking about.
This is the area he was talking about. So this is Yemen right here. And you have the Gulf of Aden in here. In Yemen, you have about 24 million people. Well, over here, this area is Somalia. And this is what they were just talking about.
Now, in Somalia, as we know, there have been some serious instability. It's been a breeding ground for al Qaeda. And what he was saying there is that there have been plenty of people who have just managed to work their way over from Somalia to Yemen. So dealing with al Qaeda in Yemen does not just mean dealing with al Qaeda in Yemen. And that's just on the south side.
Let's zoom up to the north now. I want you to see the other side. Keep in mind, the organization that we're talking about right now is al Qaeda in the a Arabian peninsula. That's two organizations that combine into one. You have al Qaeda in Yemen. You also have al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. So the networks, basically, in these two countries came together to create one group. What this means is that if you're going to combat this al Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula, sure we're going to be hearing about actions inside Yemen, but we're also going to be hearing about what will be done about any portions of the organizational structure that are also in Saudi Arabia, where this same group is.
And before I go, let's zoom even further north. I want you to see the rest of what we have over here. What I want you to keep in mind, the big context here. You also have Iraq right here, Iran right here. So plenty of security concerns already in that region. Also, as we know, Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil supplier to OPEC, which we have to keep in mind. And over here, Tony, you have what we think of as the Middle East and the Middle East crisis. You've got Israel, you have Palestinian territories, all those areas right there, all of it caught up in dealing with this region.
Let's zoom back out. So any time we hear about addressing the concerns of al Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula, we are going to be thinking about this major context. And, obviously, that's the big picture that authorities are dealing with right now.
HARRIS: There is so much conflict in the world when you break it out on the map like that.
All right, Josh, appreciate it. Thank you.
LEVS: Thanks, Tony. You got it.
HARRIS: 2009 has been a very rocky year for the economy. What's ahead for our wallets in 2010? I'll get some insight from that man, Ali Velshi. He's next right here in the CNN NEWSROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: As always at this time, we'd like to direct your attention to cnnmoney.com. If you want to get the latest financial news and analysis, as you know by now, our Money team does a terrific job. Just head on over to cnnmoney.com.
Let's take you to the New York Stock Exchange now. Just past three hours into the trading day. And, man, what -- this is just a flat day. The Dow is down a point. The Nasdaq is down a point. Maybe we can find out what's going on.
But I've got to tell you, it's been quite a year of rebound for stocks. But what's going to happen with the overall economy in 2010? Let's focus on three key areas here housing, stocks, and jobs. CNN chief business correspondent Ali Velshi.
Ali, you ready to gaze into the crystal ball just a little bit here?
ALI VELSHI, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: I am. And the first thing I want to say is, I think we can just breath a little easier than we were a year ago at this time.
HARRIS: There you go.
VELSHI: It's largely on all three fronts probably going to get better. Let's start with housing, Tony. Housing is what started this financial crisis that we were in. This recession that we were in. Back in 2005/2006, when we were at the peak of the housing market, we're down about 25 percent from that.
So what happens next year? Well, next year it appears most surveys indicate that the median price for houses will fall across the United States. Ninety percent of home markets could see a drop. But, remember, there are a lot of markets out there. Some of them will drop. Some will actually gain. But most estimates are that prices will start to stabilize in the second half.
And prices are low for three reasons. There's more houses out there than people want to buy. I mean, that's the main reason they're low. Credit is a little hard to come by for some people. The demands for what you need for a mortgage are higher. And so -- and people are uncertain about whether they're going to have their job, so they don't buy houses. But the prices are low, mortgage rates are low. I think you're going to start to see people buying houses.
HARRIS: Yes, and you've got that, what, extended and expanded housing tax credit, too, that should help.
VELSHI: Right. Yes, that's really been driving people into the housing market. The other thing that's been helping a little bit is the stock situation. While fewer than half of Americans are invested in the stock market, that means close to half are. And when they see that their IRA's and their 401(k)s and maybe their retirement starts to look like it could happen again, then they might think about making that investment.
Let's take a look at what the stock market is likely to do next year. We had a 20 percent gain this year. Investors are a little more cautious, though. That's double the average gain that you would get in a -- over a long term. So one of the thing the government is going to do is they're going to be winding down their assistance to the banks and to the mortgage companies. So you should expect a smaller return in 2010 than you got in 2009. But, still, most people I've spoken to, Tony, expect the market will end 2010 higher than it started.
HARRIS: And, you know, they're all biggies, but what about the jobs picture? What do you see there?
VELSHI: I think it's a bigger biggie. I think these are three biggies, but I think that's a big one because you don't have to buy a house and you can delay your investment in the stock market, but you do have to have an income.
Let's take a look at what Career Builder says. I don't often use Career Builder as the estimate, but they actually have a good representation of what a lot of people are saying. Twenty percent of employers plan to make full-time hires. They plan to hire people full-time. Eleven percent plan to add part-time workers. And unemployment will stay above 8 percent.
Frankly, given that we're at 10 percent right now, Tony, I'd take 8 percent as a win.
HARRIS: Yes.
VELSHI: Are almost have to -- just don't worry about the 8 percent number or the 10 percent number for a while. Are we going to create jobs in 2010? Most estimates are, yes, we will. Will it start in January? Will it start in March or April? The minute we start to actually have more jobs created in a month than lost, I think you're going to start to see a very different sentiment in the economy. People will really then start to think maybe this recession is over. Even though it probably technically is, it will really feel like it once we start adding jobs.
HARRIS: Hey, I'm glad you're going to be with us to track all this in 2010.
VELSHI: Yes.
HARRIS: Thanks for all of your help this year. It's been . . .
VELSHI: : Always my pleasure, Tony. We'll have a lot more fun in 2010.
HARRIS: Let's do that. All right, Ali Velshi for us.
Still to come in the NEWSROOM, how wet and cold will your New Year's Eve be? Karen is checking conditions across the country in the severe weather center.
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HARRIS: Up on our top story right now.
Democrats say Republican Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina is playing politics with terror. DeMint is blocking the president's nominee to head the Transportation Security Administration. There is a new push to get a TSA director in place after last week's terror incident.
At least 23 people are dead after a series of blasts near the governor's office in Ramadi, Iraq. Fifty-seven others are wounded, including the governor. Officials say he was targeted by a suicide bomber after he tried to help the victims of the first two explosives.
New York's famed Tavern on the Green restaurant is closing after 75 years thanks to the recession. Workers will serve the last meal tomorrow night, New Year's Eve. Murals and chandeliers from the Central Park landmark will be auctioned to pay an $8 million debt.
Speaking of New Year's Eve, everybody -- Karen Maginnis is looking ahead. We've got to get through the day, but clearly everyone is thinking about their New Year's Eve plans.
(WEATHER REPORT)
HARRIS: Want to put this on your radar. It certainly is on ours. And we've been following it for a while now and we've been able to gen up some surveillance video. And I don't know which vehicle in particular is the vehicle of concern, but I can tell you, you're looking at Times Square, New York City. It's the van in the center. Thank you for the guidance there.
And we can now confirm that the NYPD is investigating a suspicious van parked near the intersection of 42nd Street and Broadway. And my understanding, it is the van in the center of the screen here.
You see no activity around on that street. That's because it has been shut down as the investigation continues. I think I just saw someone moving. And I'm hoping that's law enforcement that's working the investigation right now. We have no further information as to what it is that tipped local officials off to this van, but we're going to keep an eye on this situation. Obviously with so much attention being paid to Times Square just ahead of the big New Year's Eve celebration there, any suspicious vehicle is of particular interest to law enforcement.
And we see that someone is walking up. We saw that person just a moment ago at the lower left of the screen. Has made -- well, yes, he is by the van in question. That person has walked up to the van in question. So we can spot shadow that a little bit better here and give you a better view of the van that we're talking about here. This is at the intersection of 42nd and Broadway. We're talking Times Square, New York City right now, in Manhattan.
So we're going to keep an eye -- I just want to watch this picture a little bit here. I have no idea who that person is. I don't know if that's law enforcement, if it's someone with law enforcement. Whoever it is, that person -- I've got to assume it's someone in law enforcement is walking away from that van because that street and that intersection has been shut down at this point. Walking away right now.
We're going to continue to follow this picture. The back row of our control room, and certainly our national desk is watching this as well. We will bring you updates on this situation as soon as we can. Let's get you to a quick break. You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.
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HARRIS: All right. Breaking news now out of New York and Times Square. Can you can imagine this? The day before the big New Year's Eve celebration, Times Square, are you kidding me? No. What we have is a suspicious van right there. There's the spot on it. At 42nd and Broadway. The intersection of 42nd and Broadway.
Let me bring in CNN's Poppy Harlow.
Poppy, you are reporting not far from that location. Give us the proximity of your location to the scene that we're looking at play out right now.
POPPY HARLOW, CNNMONEY.COM (via telephone): Hi, Tony. I'm actually walking down the stairwell from the 21st floor of 1 Times Square right now. This is at the heart of Times Square at 42nd and Broadway. They're evacuating the building currently as I speak.
What I can tell you is about 11:30 Eastern Time this morning, NYPD started an investigation right here in Times Square of what they are calling a suspicious vehicle. I saw this vehicle. It is a white van. Some reports are saying that it was covered with tarps and that it also had been parked for one to two days. And, Tony, that is why it was deemed a suspicious vehicle, Tony.
And police are also evacuating this building. I'm hearing reports they may be evacuating the Nasdaq market site across the street. Hundreds of people around Times Square, obviously, right now looking, trying to figure out exactly what police are doing. They've rerouted bus lines also, Tony, that go through here.
HARRIS: Hey . . .
HARLOW: At this point, still an ongoing investigation.
HARRIS: Yes, and, Poppy . . .
HARLOW: Yes.
HARRIS: Yes, obviously. But circle back to that information about the van. Did you say that there is some reporting that it may have been there for a day or so?
HARLOW: That's exactly right, Tony. When -- I saw this van and I went downstairs. There's actually a Walgreens at the bottom of this building. And they kept us inside the Walgreens about an hour ago. They wouldn't let us outside. And I looked at the van. And the security guards in there were telling us and NYPD had said that that van had been parked there for a day or two and that's why they deem it suspicious.
Also reports that possibly there were New Jersey license plates on the van. One report that is not confirmed, but that I had heard from one of the heads of security at Walgreens, is that there may, Tony, may have been a fake NYPD plaque within the van and that caused some suspicious.
So a number of questions remaining here, Tony. And we're trying to get all of it confirmed, of course, by the police, as we're literally evacuating, walking down the stairwell as I'm talking to you.
HARRIS: OK. We've got a lot of activity around this van right now. And I don't know really what to make of this, but I know someone who can help me make some sense of it.
Mike Brooks is on the line with us. He is CNN's law enforcement analyst.
And, Mike, what do you make of this situation? And now we've got doors on the van open. We've had someone reaching inside. A couple of people now reaching inside. So what do you make of this?
MIKE BROOKS, CNN LAW ENFORCEMENT ANALYST (via telephone): Well, Tony, from what I'm seeing of this, and having worked these situations like this before a number of times, you saw the bomb tech in his suit go up. They took pictures inside. We're looking inside the van.
And what they're looking for is -- one of the first things you do, you look to see how low is it sitting on the tires. That would indicate that there might be a load inside the van. They probably didn't see that. He went up, took extreme caution, because you want to make sure that the door -- the doors aren't booby trapped in any way. What's inside the van.
And that's -- now you see people walking around there without any protective equipment, which would say to me, Tony, that most likely they believe that this van is safe. But, you know, we can't say that for sure, but the protocols of the NYPD bomb unit, which is one of the . . .
HARRIS: Looks like we've lost Mike Brooks for just a moment here. But his analysis -- there he is.
BROOKS: Protective suit.
HARRIS: OK, Mike, I'm sorry, we didn't catch the very end of your last comment. You dropped off when you said it appears to you, by looking at the pictures and seeing folks walking up to the van without protective equipment on, that this is a situation that seems to be under control to you?
BROOKS: It looks like that. Because I can tell you by protocol, the bomb technicians would not be anywhere near that van without protective equipment if they thought that there was any kind of hazardous material inside, you know, i.e. explosive. So they're probably going to go ahead and check this out.
But, Tony, keep in mind, this is the time that they start going around the area and looking for vehicles that may be abandoned. They're looking into all kinds of different things because this is where the crowds are going to be tomorrow night. So this is all part of what the bomb squad does, what the emergency services unit and the precinct does around Times Square to make sure that the area is secure for people to come in there to make sure that nothing is secreted in any kind of vehicles like this, Tony.
HARRIS: Isn't it a little bit concerning, the reporting that we heard just a moment ago from our Poppy Harlow, that there is some reporting that this vehicle has been at this location perhaps a day or two? That's a bit concerning.
BROOKS: It is. You know, but in -- I can tell you, Tony, in New York, Washington, D.C., L.A., people find a lot of different vehicles.
HARRIS: Well, you make a good point.
BROOKS: But that's one of the things they're doing. They're going around to make sure that all the other vehicles in these particular areas are cleared with tomorrow night's New Year's Eve celebration coming up. So it might have been part of that preparation where they found this, it kind of alerted their attention, and that's the reason they went ahead and go -- and checked it out after talking to some of the merchants in the area and saying, oh, it might have had New Jersey tags, it might have had a NYPD placard or a fake placard on it. That's the reason they went ahead and do it because anything -- especially with the heightened sense of awareness right now with the incident on that Northwest flight, they're going to take every precaution necessary.
HARRIS: Absolutely. So the big key for you that suggests that this is a situation that appears to be under control, is that you're seeing so many people walking to the vehicle without protective equipment on and we've got doors wide open now?
BROOKS: Yes. Exactly. Otherwise you would see probably the bomb technician go up there, maybe use the robot and -- to bring -- if there was any hazardous material inside that, they could either go ahead and do a render safe procedure inside the van or bring it out and do an RSP outside. But it doesn't look like they have found any hazardous material. I'm not seeing any indications like that with the officers walking around and opening the doors of vehicles without any kind of protective gear on.
HARRIS: And, Poppy, let me get back to you for just a second.
HARLOW: Sure.
HARRIS: Hang on with us, Mike, if you would.
BROOKS: Sure.
HARRIS: And, Poppy, you've been asked to evacuate, correct?
HARLOW: Yes, Tony, I just literally walked out of the building, 1 Times Square. There's a Walgreen's at the bottom that we just walked out through where they were holding people about an hour ago. Now they've released everyone.
I'm standing next to one of the police officers. Sir, are you evacuating everyone from Times Square? OK. He can't tell me anything. But we have to evacuate the whole block of 42nd Street and Broadway.
Tony, I can tell you that I've lived in New York about eight years. Things like this do happen. You know, you have to hope for the best and hope that this is just a scare. I think Mike Brooks, great points, are not to be alarmists. That, you know, police wouldn't be in that van without bomb gear if there was something to be very concerned about.
But, again, they're evacuating this entire block at the middle of what is really the height of lunch hour here in New York City. Tony, it's a vacant block. And I'm being yelled at to get off of it right now. HARRIS: OK. But, you know, as you keep moving, and we want you to keep moving and following the instructions given to you by the officers, but circle back on the information. Look, this started about what time here, Poppy, we're talking, what 11:30 or so?
HARLOW: Sure. Just started hearing from NYPD about 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time, Tony, here. So just about an hour -- just -- yes, just about an hour and a half ago that would have been. And, again, it was this white van that I saw with my own eyes. It looked like a typically -- you know, typical white van park there. But, again, the concern, as Mike Brooks and I both said, is that it may have been there for a number of days. There may have been a question of a fake police placard in there. Still trying to confirm that. And so there were obviously a lot of questions it has caused.
I would say, Tony, 20 to 30 police officers down here, at least. And I'm looking down Broadway and 42nd Street right now. And there's a sea of people around here at this point. Everyone just trying to figure out what on earth is going on.
HARRIS: Well, and Mike Brooks, are you still with us?
BROOKS: I'm still here, Tony.
HARRIS: Mike, look at this scene now. We've got a full on gaggle around the van now.
BROOKS: Yes. Yes.
HARRIS: What does that say to you?
BROOKS: That says -- that says to me that most likely, again, most likely, because we haven't been able to confirm it with NYPD yet, but that there's probably most likely no hazardous material inside that van. And, you know, that maybe they found something else inside that wasn't a hazardous material.
But, again, we don't know. But for me, Tony, from having done this for a number of years and been in -- the one who goes near these vans, I can tell you that most likely there is no hazardous material that probably didn't present too much of a threat. Unless now they believe that after running maybe the vehicle identification number, the VIN number, it could be stolen. We don't know yet.
HARRIS: And at this point, once you've secured that vehicle, you're just trying to get it out of there, right? You just want to get it . . .
BROOKS: Exactly. You don't want any -- you don't want any other (ph) vehicles -- this unoccupied van that has been sitting here for a number of days on the street. And as you know, Tony, they will go ahead and start towing vehicles probably tomorrow afternoon because of all the people in restrict vehicular traffic in and around Broadway, 42nd Street, 43rd, all around Times Square because of the celebration tomorrow evening. HARRIS: Well, you know, Mike, it's nothing and it looks like the authorities have treated it as severely and seriously as they need to. I mean it's no joke for this kind of thing to take place on New Year's -- the day before New Year's Eve. We're talking about New York. We're talking about Times Square. And it looks like, out of an abundance of caution, and they have taken every step that you would recommend as someone who has done this kind of work for years.
BROOKS: Absolutely. And keep in mind, Tony, you know, the whole country is -- you know, is in the alert color yellow, if you will. But, as we know, New York City, Mayor Bloomberg has said that New York City has been at a level orange, you know, ever since 9/11. Just a little bit higher than most -- than the national level. But that is why they've taken a bunch of caution.
That's why we see every day, you know, some of these -- some of the Hercules units and they have the plan every day in and around Time Warner Center. We see it when we're up there of how to respond if there is a need for a full blown (ph) command response or an incident like this. So, you know, you talk about planning and preparation, NYPD is one of the best.
HARRIS: Yes. All right. Poppy, I know you . . .
HARLOW: Hey, Tony, if I can . . .
HARRIS: Yes, jump in.
HARLOW: Yes, if I can jump in here. We've just -- the police barricades have just been moved and the block has now opened in Times Square. It looks like traffic is all moving freely here now. No cars yet, but I mean pedestrian traffic. Again, they literally just moved the police barricades and people are walking now along 42nd street. Looks like it's all open.
I'm going to go talk to some of the NYPD, see if we can figure out more. But this looks like a good sign here as far as I can tell right now. At least in terms of allowing traffic through the area.
Tony.
HARRIS: All right, Poppy, let me hand you over to my colleague. You're in great hands here with Kyra Phillips, as we continue with CNN NEWSROOM.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Appreciate it, Tony. Thanks so much.
