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American Morning
Al Qaeda Falling Apart: Terror Group Begs Bin Laden for Help; Cracking the Health Care Whip; Northeast and Midwest Floods: Red River Expected to Crest this Weekend; Iranian-American Prisoner Forgotten in Iran; Are Drone Attacks Disabling Terror Group?; A Dozen NCAA Teams Graduate Less Than 40 Percent
Aired March 18, 2010 - 06:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. Thanks for being with us on this Thursday, it's March 18th. I'm Kiran Chetry.
JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. I'm John Roberts. Here are the big stories we'll be telling you about coming up in the next 15 minutes.
Terror group in turmoil. CIA chief Leon Panetta is saying attacks inside Pakistan have driven Osama bin Laden and his deputies further into hiding and that Al Qaeda is so desperate that it sent a message to bin Laden pleading for some leadership. But is a cornered and wounded enemy more dangerous? We're live at the Pentagon this morning.
CHETRY: We're also inching closer to a vote on health care reform. Democrats appear to be on a roll. A key liberal holdout changing his mind, deciding he will support the president and his party's bill. But a lot of arms still need twisting before a possible vote in the House this weekend.
CHETRY: And it's a war against the water in North Dakota this morning. The Red River is creeping dangerously higher as folks in Fargo tried desperately to head off disaster. Right now, melting snow and rain are raising flood projections. Our Rob Marciano keeping an eye on it all for you this morning.
CHETRY: We begin with some new developments in the war against Al Qaeda. A progress report from CIA Director Leon Panetta and the key word "progress." Panetta is saying that Al Qaeda is now weak and desperate and begging for help from Osama bin Laden who's been driven deeper into hiding by relentless attacks inside Pakistan.
Barbara Starr live for us at the Pentagon this morning. Barbara, there is a key development that's coming to light as well. Tell us more about that.
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, indeed, Kiran. Good morning to you. What Leon Panetta, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, told "The Washington Post" that the United States had intercepted a message from an Al Qaeda lieutenant to bin laden, basically begging the Al Qaeda leader to take a more public role, to come out of hiding, to show more leadership, if you will. Now to be clear, we don't know very much about this message, other than what Panetta told "The Post." He didn't offer many details. He didn't say when this all happened, what type of message and whether this lieutenant was in fact a key player that would even have access to bin Laden.
And of course, for some months now, the U.S. intelligence community has said they believe it's really Al Qaeda's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is providing the day-to-day leadership and really running the show. Bin Laden, largely a figurehead, but clearly still very much resonating with the Al Qaeda ranks who want to see him take a more public role -- Kiran.
CHETRY: Also a new development in that devastating suicide attack that killed seven people working for the CIA in Afghanistan. Tell us more about that.
STARR: Yes. You know, the CIA may have gotten their man finally, eventually. U.S. counterterrorism officials say that a recent strike inside Pakistan may have killed a man named Hussein Alyameni (ph) someone that they believe was a key operative behind that December attack against a U.S. base in Afghanistan that killed seven people working for the CIA. The suicide bomber obviously killed in that attack, but they believe that the man they killed, Hussein Alyameni (ph) last week was a planner, a facilitator, someone very much involved behind the scenes in that suicide bomb attack. They think they got him - Kiran.
CHETRY: Wow. Barbara Starr for us this morning. Thank you.
STARR: Sure.
CHETRY: Also at 6:30 Eastern, we're going to be joined by former CIA officer Gary Berntsen. We're going to talk about how successful are attacks on Al Qaeda have been and how weak the terror organization is right now.
ROBERTS: Now to the battle over health care reform. The Democrats gathering a little momentum this morning. Thanks to the president's powers of persuasion. Two hundred sixteen votes are needed to kill the health care bill in the House. A CNN sampling finds only 205 votes confirmed no votes right now, including all 178 Republicans and 27 Democrats. That leaves opponents of the measure 11 votes short and they will not be able to count on Dennis Kucinich. The liberal holdout from Ohio has flipped announcing that he will support the bill. He made that announcement last night on "LARRY KING LIVE."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. DENNIS KUCINICH (D), OHIO: It was my way. But I'm not a my way or the highway kind of guy, Larry. I thought that when all was said and done, I made my point, I couldn't get my way that there was more important to see people get a chance to have some coverage even if it's from private insurance companies than to kill the bill. I didn't want to be responsible for killing the bill, even though I didn't get what I wanted out of the process. (END VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERTS: Congressman Kucinich changed his mind after taking a ride aboard Air Force One earlier this week along with the president. In the parlance of politics, he got whipped.
Our congressional correspondent Brianna Keilar live in Washington for us this morning. And, Brianna, there's a lot of that going on these days with the House vote possible in the next couple of days, maybe this weekend, lots of whipping going on right now.
BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, we call it whipping. We call it arm-twisting, really violence, visual terms that we use to describe this process of rounding up the votes on Capitol Hill. And it's such a significant process that there is a leadership position in both parties called the "whip." They're supported by a whip team, members of Congress, as well as a lot of staff whose job is to either secure a no or yes vote on a bill.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MUSIC: When nothing's going wrong, you must whip it. Now whip it.
KEILAR (voice-over): In the words of the '80's group Devo, that's just what Democratic leaders are doing.
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D), HOUSE SPEAKER: I never stop whipping. There's no beginning, there's no middle and there's no end.
KEILAR: With many rank and file Democrats on the fence about whether to support the health care reform package, Democratic leaders will be counting the yeas and nays, whipping their members until the bill hits the floor for a vote.
JAIME HARRISON, FORMER HOUSE FLOOR DIRECTOR: There have been some difficult whip votes. Ones that I was a part of in the last Congress, but I think in terms of this Congress is the most difficult.
KEILAR: Jaime Harrison is a former whip director for Democrats, responsible for identifying which members need convincing.
HARRISON: That's when you are basically finding out who's their best buddy in the Congress. And you're sending that person to go talk to them to tell them how important it is to the Democratic caucus.
KEILAR: And if that doesn't work?
HARRISON: You know, you go up this chain of command and so it will start off with the regional whip and then move up to one of the chief deputy whips. And then you get to the big enchiladas. You go to the speaker, the leader, and the majority whip to really bring out.
KEILAR (on camera): And the next thing you know -- the next thing you know Speaker Pelosi is calling you into her office?
HARRISON: Calling to chat with her, to see how you can be supportive of this legislation.
KEILAR: That's mighty uncomfortable, isn't it?
HARRISON: Yes, she's very persistent. I wouldn't want to be the one called into her office.
KEILAR (voice-over): Because years before she yielded the gavel as speaker, Nancy Pelosi held the position of Democratic whip.
MUSIC: Crack that whip.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KEILAR: You just got to have a little fun with that, John, because that's really the song that plays in your head when you think of this. But this informal process of whipping, Democratic leaders trying to pin down their Democrats to see if their voting yes or no. This is obviously already begun. It happens everywhere, albeit in the offices of these leaders. Air Force One, for instance, with President Obama, but the real formal process begins with this.
This is an example of what's called a whip question. It basically just says, are you going to support this bill? And this is going to go out, possibly today, assuming that is when we get these all-important CBO numbers, the price tag on this bill and we actually see the bill language. Then you're going to start seeing that serious arm-twisting where members are, yes, brought into Speaker Pelosi's office.
ROBERTS: Yes, you know, we were talking with Congressman Altmire yesterday, and he said he didn't all the details and until he did he wasn't going to tell us which way he was going to vote. So an interesting and --
KEILAR: Speaking of whipping --
ROBERTS: Yes.
KEILAR: -- someone who is definitely getting whipped right now.
ROBERTS: Yes, and getting his arms twisted and stomped on all of that, too. An interesting process to watch. Brianna, thanks so much.
In the next hour of AMERICAN MORNING, we're going to be joined by Democratic Congressman John Boccieri of Ohio. He is still on the health reform fence. And wait until you hear about the invitation that he just turned down from the president. And twisting his arm, too.
CHETRY: Who knew that being a member of Congress was so physically taxing? You get whipped, your arm gets twisted.
ROBERTS: That was an '80s music. It doesn't get any better. CHETRY: Well, also developing this morning, raging rivers growing more dangerous by the hour in the upper Midwest and in the northeast, lingering problems from this weekend storm. In New Hampshire, a dramatic rescue after an elderly couple drove their SUV into flood waters and almost tipped over into a drainage ditch. Rescue workers say the two are OK. Some areas of New Jersey are beginning to dry out. The patience is wearing thin. More than 5,000 residents still have no power after last week's storm.
In Fargo, North Dakota, the dangerous rising along the Red River, now more than 30 feet above flood stage. Volunteers yesterday filled their one millionth sandbag, not with a minute to spare. The Red River is expected to crest this weekend at 38 feet.
Our Rob Marciano is live in the weather center. And, Rob, last year, what it did topped out? I mean, this happened to them last year. It topped out at, what, 40 feet?
ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Right. Just over 40, closer to 41 feet. That was a historic stage and they managed to save most of the town from a catastrophe there. But if it flooded, if they wiped out the town, they probably would have gotten a bunch of federal money to help build some dikes much like Grand Forks did some decade ago. So the spirit of that town certainly unwavering and remarkable and hopefully this year, they'll have the same success, maybe even better than they did last year.
All right. Still have some flood warnings out across parts of the northeast. Those rivers are beginning to die down just a bit. But still, some flood warnings from Jersey over to eastern Massachusetts. These flood warnings remain in effect across the upper Midwest. And again, Fargo is expected to be the spot where all the focus is. Rising to about 38 feet later on this weekend, again, that's a couple of feet below the record stage of last year. But considering how well -- how much we blew that out of the water, you shouldn't find too much comfort in that.
Don't find comfort in this, either. Warm temperatures rising, rising the mercury across the northwest there and the upper plains. Sixty-two degrees expected in Minneapolis. That's going to melt some of that snow. And the wildcard in this, John and Kiran, is the threat for ice jams. And anytime you get that ice jams, that will rise the river even more and that will mess with the forecast. And, you know, that's when all bets are off. So we'll have to watch this very carefully over the next several days for sure.
ROBERTS: All right. We'll be talking with the mayor of Fargo, by the way, in the third hour of AMERICAN MORNING. Dennis Walaker is going to be with us. So we'll ask him how the sandbagging operation is going and whether they'll be able to keep the water out.
Rob, thanks so much. We'll see you again soon.
Still to come on the Most News in the Morning, a CNN exclusive. An American businessman held in an Iranian prison for two years. His family fighting to get him free. We've got the story coming up. It's 10 minutes after the hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Thirteen minutes after the hour and new this morning. You know the Toyotas supposedly fixed in the sudden acceleration recall?
Well, in the past few weeks there have been double the number of complaints that cars are speeding up on their own, raising questions as to whether the problem is mechanical or electrical. "The Associated Press" reports more than 100 owners have lodged complaints with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Some just days after getting the cars back from repairs. The agency is now looking into how dealers are fixing those vehicles. Toyota for its part says it is confident in its repairs.
CHETRY: And an arrest in connection with the death of '80s teen star Corey Haim. California's attorney general says that the suspect is part of an illegal drug ring that allegedly used stolen doctors' identities to help the actor obtain thousands of prescription medication. The L.A. County coroner's office says Haim had pneumonia, an enlarged heart and water in his lungs when he died last week. Officials though have not ruled out a drug overdose. They expect to get toxicology results back in a few weeks.
ROBERTS: Another state is starting to sound like your flaky friend saying I can't pay you back. New York's governor is delaying hundreds of thousands of tax refunds until April the 1st, saying he needs the cash to pay the bills. Five other states -- North Carolina, Hawaii, Kansas, Idaho and Alabama are also holding on to your money.
CHETRY: Well, he spent nearly two years in an Iranian prison and has never been charged with any crime. But unlike the detained American hikers, the case of 71-year-old Reza Taghavi has been largely forgotten.
ROBERTS: His family at first fear that any public attention would jeopardize the safety. Now they're counting on that attention to secure his release.
Jill Dougherty is live in Washington with a CNN exclusive. And, Jill, this is a story, a fairly innocent sounding guy. He just kind of got caught up in some other business?
JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Yes. It's kind of murky, John, I would say. But you know, over the past year, there have been several cases of Americans held in Iranian jails. Secretary Clinton has talked about it. But there's one case that we've heard almost nothing about until now.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DOUGHERTY (voice-over): Seventy-one-year-old Reza Taghavi, retired Iranian American businessman from Southern California, has been held in Tehran's notorious Evin prison for two years. Now his American lawyer reveals secret talks.
PIERRE PROSPER, LAWYER FOR REZA TAGHAVI: We are negotiating terms. And my job, really, is to talk to the government to see what will it take? What do they want?
DOUGHERTY: In April 2008, Reza Taghavi took one of his frequent trips to Tehran to see family and friends. According to his lawyer, an acquaintance asked Taghavi to carry $200 to an Iranian who needed some money. Taghavi agreed.
Iranian authorities arrested him on suspicion of anti-regime activity.
PROSPER: It's not clear what the accusations are at this time because the investigation, believe it or not, after two years, is still ongoing.
DOUGHERTY: Two years later, Prosper says his client has not been charged with any crime.
Cases of other Americans being held like the three hikers who allegedly strayed over the Iranian border have been highly publicized. But Taghavi's family kept silent, not even telling the State Department he'd been arrested.
LEILA TAGHAVI, DAUGHTER: Blind faith and not knowing that it would take this long and just unsure about how things work.
DOUGHERTY: The Iranian to whom Taghavi gave the $200 was arrested and convicted of involvement with a terrorist group that blew up Hamas in Shara'a (ph). But Taghavi's lawyer claims the businessman had no known contact with any terrorist group.
The State Department admits it has few details.
MARK TONER, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: We understand that he's in poor health. And we've not yet received consular access to him through the Swiss protecting power. But we repeatedly -- have called for and continue to call for his immediate release by Iranian authorities.
DOUGHERTY: In a twist, Iranian authorities even invited Taghavi's lawyer to Tehran to discuss the case.
PROSPER: He has not been charged, prosecuted or convicted so there must be some questions out there. We're trying to answer the questions in a way that obviously will lead to a favorable outcome.
PROSPER: Leila Taghavi told us she doesn't think her father can tolerate being in prison much longer.
TAGHAVI: My biggest hope is that this message reaches and -- the right people. And somebody can do something.
(END VIDEOTAPE) DOUGHERTY: And Leila Taghavi told us that that's the main reason that the family is speaking out right now. She said she talked with her father Wednesday morning by phone, and that he told her to have faith, that he does believe people will do the right thing -- John, Kiran.
ROBERTS: At least she's had got some contact with him which is something, you know?
DOUGHERTY: Yes.
ROBERTS: Unlike the three captured American hikers. Hasn't been much contact there at all except through intermediaries.
Jill, thanks so much.
CHETRY: Well, next on the Most News in the Morning, there's a new jobs bill that's headed to the president for a signature. And our Stephanie Elam is "Minding Your Business" this morning. She's going to be here to break it down for us. It's 18 minutes after the hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Twenty-one minutes past the hour. It means it's time for "Minding Your Business." We have Stephanie Elam with us this morning.
Hello.
STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
CHETRY: And you're talking a little bit about the jobs bill that they passed. What's in it for --
ELAM: For everybody?
CHETRY: -- who's looking for work? Yes.
ELAM: Yes. And people out there. Well, a lot. I mean, think about it, it's $17.6 billion bill. And you think about unemployment rate being at 9.7 percent. This is really important that something needs to be done in this country and this is what the legislators are trying to work on.
So here's what's in this bill. It has -- it will make employers exempt for Social Security taxes on new hires who are unemployed for at least 60 days.
It will also fund highway and transit programs throughout the rest of this year and extend tax breaks for businesses that's been on capital investments. That's things like buying equipment for their operations.
It will also help state and local governments fund capital construction projects as well. Now this is a thinner version of the $85,000 bill that was being worked on coming out of the Senate Finance Committee. It was a bipartisan action by Senator Chuck Schumer and Senator Orrin Hatch.
So they've really brought this down. Harry Reid jumped in and said, you know what, let's take the four most important measures and just try to get this passed because they've been working on jobs bill, as you might know, for a really long time.
And they wanted to get something to the president. He's supposed to sign this today. Some saying that this could save companies more than $6,500 when they use this. But if the companies take a look at all this together, some are saying what kind of incentive is this, really, $6,000 to really go ahead and do hiring?
If people aren't out there spending, then they're saying that companies are not going to be able to do this because demand isn't there. So we're going to have to wait and see. But overall, it's expected to cause $13 billion over 10 years. So we'll be looking to see how this all plays out.
But it should be fine. Other jobs bills are still being worked through the House and also in the Senate as well.
ROBERTS: How's the job market looking out there?
ELAM: You know, you see parts of it looking better. There are certain pockets that are always doing better like jobs as far as government, as far as health care. Engineering jobs are looking really well. But it's still pretty frozen out there so they need help.
ROBERTS: All right. Stephanie Elam, "Minding Your Business" this morning. Stephanie, thanks so much.
ELAM: Sure.
ROBERTS: Coming up next on the Most News in the Morning, Alina Cho with an "AM Original." It is the most expensive museum theft in history. And 20 years later it is still unsolved.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEOFFREY KELLY, SPECIAL AGENT, FBI, BOSTON DIVISION: This case has everything. I mean it has everything that would make the greatest crime novel ever. Except it's missing that last chapter.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Top story just four minutes away. But first, an "AM Original" and something that you'll see only on AMERICAN MORNING.
It's the case that has baffled detectives for some 20 years now. On this day, back in 1990, $300 million in art was taken from a museum in Boston. The thieves got away without a trace.
CHETRY: And since then, there have been be countless dead-ends and disappointments. But as Alina Cho reports, there is new that the greatest art heist in American history can be solved.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KELLY: These are the hottest stolen paintings in the world.
STEPHEN KURKJIAN, BOSTON GLOBE CORRESPONDENT: Because there's so many known parts of it, except the Black Hole. Where did they do?
ALINA CHO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A mystery. What happened on March 18th, 1990 at Boston's Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum. Twenty years later, a new portrait is emerging about the famous heists with some tantalizing details.
(On camera): Investigators say at precisely 1:24 a.m., two men disguised as policemen, knocked on this side door, saying they were called to look into a disturbance. The night watchman let them in.
Once inside, the two thieves, handcuffed both of the guards on duty, duct taped them and then with free reign of the museum they went to work.
(Voice-over): What the pair took, didn't take and how they did is as baffling to investigators as the crime itself.
KELLY: Certainly, they don't know a lot about art.
CHO: Among the 13 works stolen, three Rembrandts, including "The Storm on the Sea of Galilee," his only known seascape. Five drawings by Degas and "The Concert" by Vermeer, one of only 36 known Vermeer in the world.
But the thieves left hanging Titian's "Europa," the museum's most valuable piece, estimated worth, $400 million. Then there's the method they used. Cutting some of the paintings out of their frames which can damage them.
Today museumgoers see empty frames as a haunting reminder.
KURKJIAN: That's the fear, is that they rolled up two of the Rembrandts, and that is a big fear because that is -- that paint will crackle.
CHO: Stephen Kurkjian has been following the Gardner heist for "The Boston Globe."
KURKJIAN: They missed a Michelangelo and they took something two steps away that had nowhere near the value.
CHO (on camera): But the question remains who is behind the biggest art heist in history. Over the past 20 years, there have been wild theories. Was it a fugitive mob boss? An eccentric art collector or was it just a work of local criminals? KELLY: There's so many good suspects. I mean it's like an Agatha Christy novel where everybody is sitting around the -- you know, in the living room and everyone has a particular motive as to why they committed the crime. And that's really --
CHO (voice-over): FBI special agent Geoffrey Kelly on the case for eight years says DNA testing is now in play. But won't reveal details. "The Boston Globe" reports, investigators may be analyzing the duct tape used to silence the guard.
If there's sweat on the tape, there's a possibility of a DNA match. And the break investigators have been hoping for for 20 years.
(On camera): Why do you think people are so fascinated by this case?
KELLY: This case has everything. I mean, it has everything that would make the greatest crime novel ever, except it's missing that last chapter.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHO: That's right, the FBI has even taken out ads. We're talking about huge billboards on the highway. Advertising a $5 million reward for any information that leads to the safe return of the artwork.
Now remember, there are two crimes in play here. The actual theft 20 years ago, and interestingly enough the statute of limitations on that crime ran out in 1995. That means if the two thieves are caught, they won't be prosecuted.
Then there's the second crime which is possession of stolen art. Now there's no statute of limitations on that which is why the U.S. attorney's office is now offering immunity, guys, saying that if you come forward with the art work, you will not be charged. All will be forgiven. And there's a reason for that. It's because over the years, it's quite possible that the artwork has changed hands several times.
CHETRY: Right.
ROBERTS: Sure.
CHO: And that the people in possession of the art right now had nothing to do with the theft.
ROBERTS: So, at this point, all they're hoping to do is just get it back, right? Not prosecute anyone?
CHO: That's absolutely right. Their goal is really -- you talk to FBI, you talk to the museum, their goal is the safe return of the art. We're talking about half billion dollars worth of artwork.
CHETRY: I mean, priceless, though.
(CROSSTALK)
CHETRY: You know, for the curators. But what about the theory of who may have been behind it? Has that changed and evolved over the years?
CHO: Listen, there are several suspects. They said dozens. And they're trying to narrow it down. But the prevailing theory right now is local criminals and that's because of the way that they conducted the theft.
You know, in some cases, they cut the paintings out of the frames. A seasoned criminal wouldn't do that because that damages the art, it could destroy the art. It certainly diminishes the value.
Also they were in the museum for 81 minutes, that's a lifetime in theft terms, right?
ROBERTS: It is a long time.
CHO: Usually, the cardinal rule is: get in, get out. They were there an hour and a half. Nobody does that.
CHETRY: Wow.
ROBERTS: Alina, great story this morning. Thanks so much.
CHO: You bet.
ROBERTS: Crossing the half, that means it's time for this morning's top stories.
In Fargo, North Dakota, growing anxiety as the Red River continues to rise. It's expected to crest at 38 feet this weekend. That is just a few feet shy of last year's record. In 30 minutes, we're going to go live to the flood lines where residents are counting on 1 million sandbags to hold the river bank.
CHETRY: And Democrats are picking up some support for their health care reform bill. A key liberal holdout, Ohio's Dennis Kucinich, has flipped. He says he's now backing the measure after spending a little alone time on Air Force One with the president this week. And it's now 11 votes short of killing the deal with the House vote possible by this weekend.
ROBERTS: And CIA Director Leon Panetta is saying al Qaeda is falling apart. The attacks inside Afghanistan have crippled leadership and not even the terror group itself can find Osama bin Laden for advice.
CHETRY: Well, U.S. military launching aggressive attacks on suspected insurgents in recent months. A senior al Qaeda commander who helped plan the December bombing at the CIA base in Afghanistan was reportedly killed by a U.S. drone strike. That happened in Pakistan last week.
ROBERTS: Yes. Senior administration officials say gains are being made against extremists, but is it enough to cripple al Qaeda?
Joining us now is former CIA officer, Gary Berntsen. Gary commanded all CIA forces in eastern Afghanistan following 9/11. He's written extensively about. He's now a Republican candidate for the first congressional district in New York.
Great to see you.
So, this fellow who was killed in this drone attack, Hussein al- Yemini, believed to have been a person who plotted with al-Balawi and the CIA Khost bombing. It's also believed but not confirmed that Hakimullah Mehsud who was seen in that video may have been killed in the drone attacks as well. These drone attacks, recent ones at least, look like they've been very effective.
GARY BERNTSEN, FORMER CIA OFFICER: The agency has been very effective over the last months with these. They've been doing attacks. It's the agency and the military. It's a combination of things.
The agency, of course, had sort of used the predator early on. Now, you have the reaper, which is a lot larger, can carry ordnance up to M-16. These things hang. They will integrate human signet (ph). You know, overhead.
ROBERTS: Human intelligence --
(CROSSTALK)
BERNTSEN: -- human intelligence, signal intelligence -- all of these things together and they're changing the battlefield there where U.S. wouldn't want to put troops on the ground, they're able to linger high enough and to be able to take these targets out.
You know, we're squeezing from the Afghan side. At the same time, coming from Pakistan, political pressure that we put on the Pakistanis. Essentially, the attacks on the TNSM, Tehrik Nefaz-e Shariat Muhammadi and this is in Swat Valley. The attacks by the Pakistani army on the Tehrik-e Taliban in Pakistan and southern Waziristan.
This is putting a lot of pressure on al Qaeda and all the militant groups.
CHETRY: Let me ask you about this one. Yesterday, CIA Director Leon Panetta spoke to "The Washington Post" and he basically talked about these drone attacks and the success of them, saying that they basically left al Qaeda rudderless. They've driven Osama bin Laden and other top leaders further underground. And he calls them incapable of planning sophisticated operations.
Do you agree with that assessment?
BERNTSEN: Well, I think that they're clearly on their heels right now. You know, this is a group that, even if it's damaged, you only need a small number of people to deploy to do terrorist -- you know, small numbers of people can leverage technology for terrible effect.
But al Qaeda really is on its heels in that part of the world. They're spreading out other parts. We're doing really well there.
But, you know, you've got issues of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, you know, fighting in Yemen. But in that battlefield, it appears that we're making significant progress. And, you know, credit should be given where it's due.
ROBERTS: You alluded to this a moment ago. And Leon Panetta credited Pakistan with increased cooperation leading to more effective drone strikes. Is Pakistan doing enough, do you think, Gary? Or could they do a whole lot more?
BERNTSEN: Pakistan's relationship with the intelligence community and with the U.S., in general, has been up and down over the years. They've turned major targets over to us in the past. You know, this capture of Mullah Baradar, you know, he has -- they haven't turned him over completely. They haven't provided access. That would go a little further.
But they've made steps. Part of this, of course, is the fact that we're considering Afghanistan -- it's the Af-Pak region now. This was Holbrooke doing this, driving us in there. So, it's been pretty successful.
CHETRY: There's a downside to this, according to some Middle East experts and that is the concern about the unintended consequences when a drone strikes, you know, terrorizes, and in some cases, accidentally kill unintentional civilians. There is a chance that actually, the hearts and minds, we could lose that and then al Qaeda and Taliban can sort of use the drone strikes as a way to get people to turn on the progress being made against al Qaeda?
BERNTSEN: Boots on the ground in those areas would change -- would make -- create greater hostility toward us. This is the least intrusive mechanism to conduct attacks on al Qaeda in that area.
And we can't leave them alone. We have to confront them. They present a national, you know, they're threat to the United States.
So, the drones are the only way to do this thing right now -- that, and using Pakistani forces. That's the combination right now. And we're making progress.
ROBERTS: There are reports out there a signal intercept in which members of al Qaeda were pleading with Osama bin Laden or at least Ayman al-Zawahiri to show some more leadership, some more visible leadership. What does that say about the organization? And if Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri who were leading this organization are not stepping up to the plate --what does that say about them?
BERNTSEN: Well, they didn't step up in 2001. They fled the battlefield. They abandoned their people. There were individuals that were captured that were debriefed at Gitmo that said bin Laden, you know, we were sort of disgusted with bin Laden. ROBERTS: They're basically calling him chicken?
BERNTSEN: And he ran. They said, "He didn't care about us. He abandoned us."
He's doing the same thing now. He only cares about his own skin. He sacrificed many, many young fighters just to get away. He didn't -- he didn't engage. He didn't step up.
He's really effective against unarmed civilians. But bin Laden's no military commander, not at all.
CHETRY: What's your assessment of what Attorney General Eric Holder said when they were going back and forth yesterday or a couple of days ago about whether or not we're doing the right thing about having civilian trials for these suspected terrorists. He said, the only thing we're going to do with bin Laden is Mirandize a corpse.
BERNTSEN: I think he's probably right there. I think that if we do have an identification of him, they'll do an attack with the drone if they can. He's unlikely to be taken alive. I think his own people would probably kill him.
I've seen other militants around the world who had bodyguards, and when local security forces are going to pick them up, their own bodyguards turned on them and killed them. So, likely to be killed by us by a strike or he'd probably be killed by his own bodyguards.
ROBERTS: Or people like Khalid Sheikh Muhammad who just wrapped him up?
BERNTSEN: Well, that was, you know, you won't find bin Laden in a motel running operations. He's never going to be out on his own like the chief. Their operational chiefs who are engaging in operations have to have communications with their operatives. And that's why it leads us back to capture them. Bin Laden and al- Zawahiri have essentially separated themselves from the organization, provide, you know, some ideology, some talking points at times, but they're not actively running the cases.
ROBERTS: Gary, it's always great to see you. Thanks for stopping by this morning.
BERNTSEN: A pleasure. Thank you very much.
ROBERTS: It's now 38 minutes after the hour. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. Forty minutes past the hour right now.
They show talent on the court, but some teams competing in the NCAA tournament this year have a real problem when it comes to academics. A new report reveals that a dozen teams have graduation rates below 40 percent. ROBERTS: And when it comes to African-American players, that falls to 20 percent or less on five men's teams.
Our Kate Bolduan joins us live from Washington this morning where some people are saying the statistics are pretty shocking. And they're calling for higher standards.
It really surprised me, Kate, when you look at this.
KATE BOLDUAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Oh, it really is. And it's definitely getting some attention.
Good morning, John and Kiran. The start of the NCAA basketball tournament means it's that time of year again when sports fans get a little crazy. But it's the surprisingly low graduation rates of some of these teams that may make people even crazier. And it's grabbing the attention of the Obama administration.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOLDUAN (voice-over): President Obama, like of millions sports fans across the country, made his NCAA picks, announcing his bracket on ESPN.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And here, what I think may end up being the best game of the tournament, Kentucky and West Virginia. And I think Kentucky pulls it out.
BOLDUAN: But the presidential choice for the championship game, Kentucky versus Kansas wouldn't be possible if his own secretary of education had his way.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
ARNE DUNCAN, SECRETARY OF EDUCATION: I want to reiterate my proposal to the NCAA that teams that fail to graduate 40 percent of the players should be ineligible for post-season competition. Frankly, it's a low bar and not that many teams would be ineligible. Over time, I think we should set a higher bar. But it is a minimum, a bright line, which every program should meet to vie for post-season honors.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
BOLDUAN: Secretary Arne Duncan wants any school graduating less than 40 percent of its athletes banned from post-season play, citing a new study by the Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sports. It shows 12 teams in this year's tournament graduated less than 40 percent of their players, including Kentucky at 31 percent, Maryland at 8 percent, and Louisville at 38 percent. The study examined NCAA statistics of four recent graduating classes, the last in 2009.
BRUCE PEARL, HEAD COACH, UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE: We are very disappointed and apologetic in many, many ways to be on that list.
BOLDUAN: Tennessee also falls below the line, but men's head coach, Bruce Pearl, defends his program, saying the problem starts far before the students hit the college court.
PEARL: If he wants to fix it, fix it at the high school level, the middle school level, at the elementary school level. His problems in this country, in our educational system, lie elsewhere.
BOLDUAN: And sports reporters like Andy Pollin say educators may not like it, but it's the reality of college sports today.
ANDY POLLIN, SPORTS DIRECTOR, 980 ESPN RADIO: If the NCAA was actually concerned about graduation rates, they wouldn't schedule weeknight games that start at 9:00. NCAA isn't concerned about the graduation rates. They're concerned about basketball programs and they're concerned about the billions of dollars that they bring in from this three-week tournament that everybody plays in their office pools.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BOLDUAN: Now, the NCAA says it shares the concern over low graduation rates, but also say in a statement, quote, "Imposing a ban on teams for the academic performance of student athletes who entered as freshmen eight to 11 years ago is probably not the best course of action. Basing post-season bans on graduation rates penalizes the wrong students."
Now when I asked Secretary Arne Duncan about exactly how the Department of Education can implement and enforce this proposal, he said they can't, John and Kiran. He said this isn't going to be a federal mandate of any kind. He says this is really a goal to raise awareness on the issue. And it looks like he has.
CHETRY: Yes, I was reading your story before the show. I was startled that my own alma mater, Maryland, 8 percent.
And Gary Williams is really -- he's the coach there, he's really pushing back against these numbers. He said this year, four out of their four seniors are going to graduate. And most recently, 10 out of the 12 did. He said that since these numbers came back in '99 and 2002, they've made some big changes.
But really, it's startling to think 8 percent?
BOLDUAN: It is. And one of the things Gary Williams said and other coaches have criticized is that these are old numbers, they say, old data.
But the author of the study, I spoke with him yesterday, and he say that that's why they used four consecutive classes. They followed them from when they entered school to when they graduated. And that's why the last class graduated in 2009, that's the last complete data. But the author of the study, I spoke with him yesterday, and he said that that's why they used four consecutive classes. They followed them from when they entered school to when they graduated, and that's why the last class graduated in 2009, that's the last complete data.
It's four consecutive classes, and he says that shows a pattern, not a fluke which one year would prove, so he stands by the data that he uses, but yes, the coaches are definitely very sensitive on this issue, but they're really trying to protect the players, especially at this very important time of the season.
ROBERTS: Yes, big topic of discussion at very important time. Kate Bolduan for us this morning. Kate, thanks.
BOLDUAN: Thanks, guys.
ROBERTS: They're keeping the cosign at the Red River this morning. Rob Marciano is going to have more on conditions at the upper Midwest plus this morning's travel forecast right after the break.
CHETRY: Also coming up in just 10 minutes, it's the phrase on everyone's lips in Washington, but does anyone outside exactly know what "deem" and "pass" really means? We sent Jeanne Moos to find out.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROBERTS: Forty-eight and a half minutes after the hour now which means it's time for your AM House Call, stories about your health. Almost 800,000 people suffer from a stroke each year and more than 140,000 die from it. There are seven factors that can raise your risk. Take a look at this. Researchers say eating red meat, fried food, or having a fatty diet in general increases your chances as does being a single man compared to someone who is happily married. So, all you playboys out there take note. Being unhappy overall can lead to a stroke.
Doctors say obesity and those with a high body mass index, BMI, are targets because of diabetes and high blood pressure. Smoking nearly doubles your chances, as does something you cannot control, and that is your race. African-Americans are more likely to die if you have a stroke and die from it than whites are, and there's a reason that they call it the stroke belt in the United States. Studies show if you're born in bred in the Carolinas, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi or Alabama, you are more prone to a stroke than people born in other areas. A lot of that has to do with diet, too.
CHETRY: Yes, absolutely.
ROBERTS: A lot of fried food down there.
CHETRY: Lifestyle choices. Let's get a check now of the weather. Rob Marciano in the Extreme Weather Center with us this morning, and I thought of you yesterday, because as you know, of course, the northeast, the Tri-State area dealing with all these power outages. Yesterday, there were crews from Georgia. They had brought them up from Georgia helping the local crews trying to get power restored.
ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: You know, they had immobilized --
CHETRY: So, thank you. MARCIANO: You're welcome.
ROBERTS: And you are wondering why Rob wasn't there volunteering, right?
MARCIANO: You know, someone has to delegate. You know, someone has to run the show back here at mission control, and I'm glad that Georgia crews were out there helping, giving a help. I still have friends in Connecticut that are still without power as of last night, so it's a tough go to play folks like it was a hurricane. Certainly, similar results. All right. We got a couple things going on. A little storm outside of the Carolinas, not going to turn into a hurricane. Won't have similar results. Warm air is starting to move into parts of western daylights and the northeast. You, guys, are going to have a spectacular day.
Here are some rains now. A little bit of wind as well across the parts of the eastern banks of the Carolinas, and some of the showers getting down back into Georgia, but they'll be winding down throughout the day today. No rain expected across the northwest or the upper plains and the upper Midwest, and the flood warnings continue to be out. We mentioned this earlier in the program when we expected the Red River to crest at 38 feet run about Sunday morning, so that's a couple of feet below the record, but you know, that doesn't give you a whole lot of comfort.
By the way, in Mississippi, near St. Paul, expected to get into major flooding next week, and they're going to have to deploy some of the flood walls at the local airport there. Also, a little bit of snow coming into the Rockies today, high in Denver will be 66, with snow moving in tonight. Only on the front range of the Rockies do you see that kind of shift in weather. John And Kiran, back up to you.
CHETRY: All right, Rob. We're going to be talking a little bit to the mayor of Fargo, North Dakota a little bit later. They filled their 1 millionth sandbag, and they're hoping that that holds.
MARCIANO: It's amazing what they can get done when they pull together. Second year in a row.
ROBERTS: Yes, we say 1 million sandbags. That's a lot of sandbags. So, we'll be talking with Mayor Walaker coming up in the third hour this morning. Thanks, rob. We'll be right back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
CHETRY: Fifty-five minutes past the hour. Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. The Moost News in the Morning with Jeanne. It's the latest buzz word in the highly Partisan health care debate.
ROBERTS: Yes, and Jeanne Moos tells us this morning that where "deem" is facing a crisis of low self-esteem.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEANNE MOOS, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's been deem the latest four-letter word.
UNKNOWN MALE: Deem it's
UNKNOWN MALE: Deem and pass.
UNKNOWN FEMALE: Quote, "deem the bill."
UNKNOWN MALE: This deem and pass, whatever the phrase is. They're using it Washington.
UNKNOWN MALE: What will be deeming already got 60 votes.
UNKNOWN FEMALE: It's the so-called deem-and-pass rule.
UNKNOWN FEMALE: This deem and pass, whatever the heck it is they want to do.
MOOS: Whatever the heck it is it's got reporters running for the congressional rule book.
UNKNOWN MALE: It's a procedure called deeming. It can be found in volume 6.
MOOS: Republicans have their own mocking name for it.
UNKNOWN MALE: The scheme and deem proposal.
MOOS: They're mopping up the house floor with it using it sarcastically.
UNKNOWN FEMALE: As a mom, I'd never allow my kids to deem their rooms clean.
MOOS: The most past non-politicians --
UNKNOWN MALE: Deem and pass?
MOOS: Clueless.
Do you have an opinion on deem and pass?
UNKNOWN FEMALE: Do I believe in demons and essence?
MOOS: No, that would be demon pass. No health care has been mostly had an impasse.
UNKNOWN FEMALE: I would pass.
MOOS: Rather than deem. Deem and pass is a legislative procedure house Democrats may use to vote indirectly on the Senate health care bill. So members who don't like the senate version, don't have to be associated with it.
UNKNOWN MALE: So is it passed if it's deemed passed? How does it all work, what happened to just yes and no and all that? MOOS: Republicans are having a field day watching Democrats trying to explain it. Note, Republican Eric Cantor smile grows as his Democratic colleague struggles.
UNKNOWN MALE: In the process that's called -- well --
UNKNOWN MALE: Congressman Canter --
UNKNOWN MALE: The process that the Republicans used 72 percent of the time that has been used.
MOOS: Sure, the Republicans did it, but when they did, Democrats like Steny Hoyer often objected.
UNKNOWN MALE: We don't even have the courage to put the bill on the floor, but this rule roost.
MOOS: The rule roost is also known as the self-executing rule.
UNKNOWN MALE: As the Democrat colleague said to me, you know what a self-executing rule is for them? They're self-executing.
MOOS: Take it from bill --
Maybe if it didn't sound so devilish.
UNKNOWN MALE: A demon pass.
UNKNOWN MALE: There's talk about the demon pass.
MOOS: The pass --
UNKNOWN FEMALE: Yes.
MOOS: Let the demons go through?
Also known as Congress.
Jeanne Moos, CNN
Repeat after me -
UNKNOWN MALE: Deem and pass.
MOOS: New York.
ROBERTS: A phrase that will be on everyone's list.
CHETRY: Yes, it could be, you know, in the obscure hiking spot, deem and pass. Have you made it through deem and pass yet? Bring an extra backpack with you.
ROBERTS: I would think that there are some people in Congress who think that the demon part of that may applicable here.
CHETRY: Two minutes until the top of the hour. We have your top stories coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
