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American Morning

BP Plans "Static Kill" Today; Islamic Center at Ground Zero?; Hard Times, Desperate Measures; Top Party Schools; The Successor To al Qaeda; Low-Fat Versus Low-Carb

Aired August 03, 2010 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. It is 8:00 here in New York on this Tuesday, August 3rd. I'm Kiran Chetry.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you. I'm John Roberts. Thanks so much for being with us.

Lots to talk about this morning -- let's get you right to it.

Going for the kill: BP says today could be the day, after yet another delay in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday. The company says it postponed a key test that needs to happen before the so-called "static kill" operation can begin. It's a small hydraulic leak that they hope to get fixed today. We are live on the Gulf Coast with the latest update.

CHETRY: An Islamic center and mosque just steps from ground zero -- a slap in the face for Americans or a symbol of religious tolerance? While the debate rages, a big vote today could clear the last hurdle for construction to start.

ROBERTS: Mexico's drug war spilling over into the United States. The drug cartels have allegedly offered $1 million to anyone who kills Arizona's controversial sheriff, Joe Arpaio.

And across the border in Juarez, Mexico, a dangerous turning point as drug lords target police with an explosive device.

CHETRY: And, of course, the amFIX blog is up and running. Join the live conversation right now. Go to our Web site, CNN.com/amFIX.

ROBERTS: But, first, today could be the day. BP says it just needs to do one more crucial test before the so-called static kill operation can begin. The company says a small hydraulic leak put that on hold yesterday.

CHETRY: Meantime today, the government is also coming out with a new estimate of just how much oil leaked from BP's well. And it is on the higher end, higher than BP ever acknowledged, 4.9 million barrels. That translates to almost 206 million gallons -- by far, the largest accidental oil spill ever.

David Mattingly is live for us in New Orleans.

And does any of this come as a surprise to the people who were there fighting this spill on the ground day in and day out, David?

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It probably doesn't, because this entire time, they have been operating on the assumption that it was a worst-case scenario, which to them, always meant somewhere in the 50,000 to 60,000 barrels a day range.

This would have been a tremendous surprise, however, back in April. If you remember, very early on in this disaster, BP came out guessing that it was maybe 1,000 barrels a day. Then the U.S. government stepped in with their estimate, saying maybe it was 5,000 barrels a day.

We're learning now from the latest numbers that they're having how they've refined that number now, and instead of 1,000 a day or 5,000 a day, it was 62,000 barrels a day when this disaster first began.

And early on, as they started getting these panels together and trying to figure out exactly how much oil they were dealing with, I asked that question, how could you have gotten it so wrong back in the early days? And the answer was: they didn't have enough information at the time. They were dealing with satellite imagery, which they were trying to guess how much oil was on the surface at the time. So, that's why they said initially 5,000 barrels.

It wasn't until BP actually opened up their camera feed so we could see that big cloud of oil coming up from the bottom -- it was at that time that the scientific community at large was able to see that oil and make their own estimates. And then the government put a panel together of all these scientists, and now, this is what we are seeing, that continued refinement as the data comes in, now looking at in the early days, it was 62,000 barrels a day and later, as they capped that well, because of depletion, there was less oil coming out. They estimated at that time, it was 53,000 barrels a day.

But, again, this entire time, they have been operating under that assumption that it was a worst-case scenario -- Kiran.

ROBERTS: David, the company keeps enticing us, saying, we're going to try the static kill. Well, no, we're going to delay. We're going to try the static kill. It was supposed to happen maybe late yesterday. What's going on with the schedule?

MATTINGLY: Well, we just checked again just before I came out here. There's been no change that's been posted and what they've got going right now. They are looking at fixing that hydraulic valve on the equipment they have down there below.

Once they fix that, they will go along with the test and that test that they are doing is going to tell them the big question: if we put the mud in there, is the mud going to sink down like we think it is going to? They couldn't get it to do that with the top kill that they tried a couple of months ago.

But right now, they are thinking that closed system with the cap on it, they'll have a great deal more success with that. So, they will have to do that test to find out: will the mud sink down, and if it does, they're going to learn a lot more about this well and it's going to tell them if and how they're going to proceed with that static kill.

ROBERTS: All right. Well, we'll keep watching it. David Mattingly for us in New Orleans this morning -- David, thanks.

The scientists are in a desperate struggle right now to save sea turtles in the oil-stained Gulf of Mexico. More than 3,000 turtle eggs were carefully picked up by hand from the northern Gulf Coast. They were transported all the way over to Florida to the Kennedy Space Center on the east coast for incubation and 400 of them were released on the beach last night in an attempt to save an entire generation of sea turtles.

CHETRY: And even the best-case scenario, only a fraction of them will actually survive once they get to the open ocean.

ROBERTS: At least they got a better chance than they have into the Gulf.

CHETRY: Oh, yes. So, good luck to 'em.

Meanwhile, there's been a lot of heated debate now. New York City's Landmark Preservation Commission has a vote that's scheduled for later this morning. And this is a vote on whether to grant landmark status to a building near ground zero that's slated to become an Islamic center and mosque.

ROBERTS: Allan Chernoff is live at Pace University. It's a few blocks from ground zero, where the commission is going to vote.

You know, we've seen a lot of opposition to this proposal for the Islamic center and mosque. We've also seen a lot of support from city leaders, like Mayor Bloomberg. What's actually at stake today in this hearing?

ALLAN CHERNOFF, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John, what's at stake here is the status of the building itself, not the use. So, the Landmark Commission will be voting on whether or not to grant landmark status to that building on Park Place, two blocks north of ground zero, where developers intend to put up an Islamic center. That would include a mosque.

Now, if the commission votes to grant landmark status, all that means is that the developers would be limited to the five-story structure right in place. They'd have to work with it. They could still create an Islamic center right there. If the building does not get landmark status, the developers can just knock it down and put up whatever they want.

But the bottom line -- and this is important because I don't think this has been well understood by the protesters -- the bottom line is that an Islamic center is going up there, unless the developers change their mind. There's no law that can prevent that. And the fact is, already, there is a Muslim prayer space in that building. Every single day during the week, people are coming, using the space for prayer -- John, Kiran.

CHETRY: And when we talk about what this Islamic Center will look like, what did developers have in mind for it?

CHERNOFF: Well, they say that they're not certain. They've created a mockup, at least 13 stories high. They say it would be a modern building.

And some of the opponents have said, we don't want minarets standing right near ground zero. The developers said, no, no minarets. It's actually going to be a modern building that would fit in with New York architecture.

But they say they haven't determined exactly what the building would look like. And, of course, that's all assuming that the building does not get landmark status.

CHETRY: Gotcha.

And just to clarify -- if it does get landmark status, does it have to stay five stories or can they keep that intact and build around it as well?

CHERNOFF: Well, they'll have to go back to the Landmarks Preservation Commission. If they want to do something around the existing five-story structure, then they'd have to go back, get permission. It's an involved process.

But again, this vote determines nothing with regard to the actual use of the building and that's where the controversy has been.

ROBERTS: Allan Chernoff for us this morning down there near ground zero -- thanks very much, Allan.

Meantime, let's check in with Rob Marciano. He's at the weather center in Atlanta with a look at something brewing out there in the Atlantic Ocean.

Is it going to be any kind of a risk for us, Rob?

ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: It could be. It's too early to tell. But, right now, we're hopeful that it makes a bit of a right turn, way out there in the Atlantic, as you mentioned.

Over 2,000 miles from the southern tip of Florida, newly named tropical storm Colin is swirling at with 40-mile-an-hour winds. Movement is west northwesterly, about 23 miles an hour. So, that will get closer to the Leeward Islands here in the next few days and then possibly shooting the gap between Bermuda and North Carolina thereafter. We will watch it closely, of course.

Also watching the heat and the hazy, hot, humid day across the mid and Deep South. Heat advisories and warnings up again today, dangerous levels of heat and humidity. Yesterday, we set a slew of records up and over 100. Dallas, Kansas City and St. Louis will all reach the century mark once again today; 87 in New York, warm but not the crazy heat you guys endured last week.

Much more weather details, John and Kiran, in about 30 minutes. See you then.

CHETRY: All right. Thanks so much, Rob.

And meanwhile, East St. Louis, it's a town just nine miles from St. Louis, Missouri. It had to lay off police officers and firefighters. It's a city that was dealing with a lot of violence to begin with and now, many say it is just going to get worse, weighing security versus budget cuts. We're going to speak with one laid off firefighter -- next.

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CHETRY: Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. It's 13 minutes past the hour right now.

You know, we are facing hard times in cities all across the country and in many cases, it's requiring some desperate measures. But in some cities, those desperate measures are triggering fear. In Philadelphia, where money is very tight right now, they actually closed three fire companies yesterday. It's a series of rolling cuts for these fire departments.

In some cases though, the cuts appear to be permanent, like East St. Louis, Illinois, cutting 11 firefighters from its staff of 35, along with about a third of its police force. It's leaving residents worried about response times and also possible crime waves.

Joining me now is one of those laid off firefighters from East St. Louis, Brian Gregory. He's live for us in St. Louis, Missouri, just across the river this morning.

Thanks for being with us.

BRIAN GREGORY, LAID OFF FIREFIGHTER: Thank you for having me, Kiran.

CHETRY: So, Brian, just, first of all, lay out for us. I mean, because this is a scenario unfortunately that's happening in many cities. But what is unique about East St. Louis when it comes to the need for firefighters, police and other public works officials on duty and ready to answer that call in your city?

GREGORY: Well, I feel -- what I feel is unique about our situation is, you know, we are a city of 31,000 people. As far as our fire department goes, we fight more fire per capita, per firefighter than any -- any fire department in the state of Illinois. That includes Chicago, Illinois.

Now, as far as the police officers go, the city wasn't exactly the safest to begin with. You know, we have our police force that's partially being subsidized with the Illinois state police and other surrounding agencies. And if you'd ask any citizen in -- any citizen of East St. Louis right now, they probably didn't feel the safest before these layoffs.

And now, we're facing 19 layoffs of police officers and over the last -- over the last year, nearly 25 firefighting slots are missing. It's just unacceptable.

CHETRY: And you know, when you talk about some of the fears. I mean, first of all, let's start with the actual fear that, god forbid, if something happened to your home and you needed the firefighters to get there I mean what happens to the response time now that you are dealing with a department cut backs so deeply?

GREGORY: Well, first I would like to say that whenever you call 911 in the city, you are going to get a response from a police officer or a firefighter. It is never that dire but the problem is that, you know, you are dealing with, you know, extreme - or increasing response time. You are going to have firefighters that might be on the other side of town that have to come where you are now. As far as fire, minutes make a difference. You know, just maybe even seconds in some cases, where you might have a grease fire in your kitchen. One minute that can be contained to that room and a minute or two later, you are looking at losing everything you have.

CHETRY: Right.

GREGORY: Minutes can also mean the difference between life and death, in some situations.

CHETRY: Yes, absolutely. And when it comes to the police, I mean, unfortunately, East St. Louis has one of the worst murder rates in the country per capita, they say. Let's say, you guys are higher than Compton, California, higher than Gary, Indiana. How concerned are you when it comes to being able to fight violent crime in the city?

GREGORY: I'm extremely concerned, both as a citizen and a former employee of the city. My, you know, born and raised in East St. Louis. I have lived there my whole life. My family lives there. My father has a business in East St. Louis. And I'm concerned not only about their safety right now but just the future of my city in general. I don't understand how we expect to, you know -- how our city government expects to attract -- attract business to get some type of financial turnaround in the city when they are eliminating essential services, police, fire. It just -- it's just ridiculous. I mean, I don't really know what they are thinking.

CHETRY: Yes, here's what I mean - no, a lot of people are certainly scratching their heads about the situation. And the mayor is defending the move. Alvin Parks said, "I want our citizens to know we have some of the bravest police officers and firefighters in the country. But we don't have the money to pay them. We have fiscal - we have to have fiscal responsibility." and now he talks about you know, the need to balance the budget, the shortfalls when it comes to revenue. So, what really is the solution? I mean for towns like yours, going through this?

GREGORY: Well, I say the solution is ethics with, you know, just ethics, you know, you need to do the right things with your money. The city has a history of mismanagement of funds. Now, if they were doing everything right, you know, my firefighting brothers and also my -- you know, brothers in the fraternal order of police, I'm sure, you know, we wouldn't be as up in arms right now as we are if they were doing things right and then they couldn't pay us.

But the truth of the matter is the city is - you know they want the citizens and the voters especially to believe that layoffs were the last resort. Layoffs were pretty much the first thing to come on the table from the city nearly a year ago. They laid off cops a year ago. They tried to lay off firefighters. I really don't understand how we even got laid off because the city agreed to a contract that protected our jobs, that we have a minimum manning in our contract.

The police also have a manning table in their contract that the city isn't respecting. And these minimum tables aren't set for us to make money. They are set for, first and foremost, for the safety and protection of our citizens.

CHETRY: That's right. Well, as I understand it you guys have another meeting with the police union and tomorrow with the firefighters. Perhaps something will be worked with out but I understand that it is a pretty tough situation for all of you right now. Best of luck to you, Brian and thanks for joining us this morning.

GREGORY: Thank you so much for having me, Kiran.

CHETRY: Sure. John?

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Nineteen minutes now after the hour. Coming up right after break, we run down the top university in the nation on the party school rankings, the list, coming right up. Stay with us.

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ROBERTS: Well, the University of Georgia where students brag Friday nights begin on Thursday afternoons, has been named the top party school in America. It is the first time that Georgia has taken the number one spot on the Princeton review list. Ohio University came in second. Penn State rounds out the top three. On the other end of the spectrum though, Brigham Young University in Utah topped the list of stone-cold sober schools for the 13th straight year.

CHETRY: There you go, go University of Georgia, although the official there aren't too thrilled about it. They said that this is just a random sample. They e-mail people it is an unscientific study and we are really trying to focus on our academics.

ROBERTS: That's exactly the same thing the college that tops the list every year says. CHETRY: Uh huh but Sunday through Wednesday, they are focused. They are focused on the books. Everyone is in the library, just get it all compacted, so they can party the rest of the week.

Anyway, it is not just college kids partying, apparently there is a new survey from Gallup finding more Americans are drinking now than at any time in the last quarter century, 67 percent of those asked -- old enough to drink admit to enjoying at least the occasional cocktail. Gallup also found that religion is a big factor. People who go to church regularly are less likely to drink and that Catholics drink more than protestants but also the beverage of choice, beer.

ROBERTS: That's good choice. Usually cheap in pubs, right?

CHETRY: You there go.

ROBERTS: You always perk up when we talk about drinking.

CHETRY: I just thought it was funny. I mean the universities hate being on this list but for the kids, you know, when they are in college it is a source of pride. Yes, we are the top ten party school.

ROBERTS: For a parent though -- I remember my son went to the University of Colorado.

CHETRY: That one ranks well, right?

ROBERTS: It was number one. Not anymore. Go buffaloes.

CHETRY: Well, there you go I don't know where the terms rank this year, but we had our share of fun.

Now it is all over. Meanwhile there is $1 million contract hit allegedly on controversial Arizona Sheriff from Maricopa County, Joe Arpaio's head, some of the Mexican drug cartels threatening his life because of his tough stance on crime and illegal immigration. We are going to talk to him about how he feels coming up, 25 minutes after the hour.

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ROBERTS: "Top Stories" just minutes away now. But first, an "A.M. Original," something that you will see only on AMERICAN MORNING. CNN has been investigating the radical fugitive cleric Anwar al-Awlaki the feds want him dead and think he is hiding out in Yemen.

CHETRY: Yes, he has issued threats on the United States, has been linked to several terror plots but the difference with al-Awlaki is that he is an American. Yesterday, we told but his earlier years growing up in New Mexico, his college years in Colorado. And this morning, our Deb Feyerick is back, she is tracking the rise of the man that terror experts now call "the new Bin Laden."

DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes it is so interesting. What makes him such a threat is really his ability to recruit angry young men who are looking to get back at the world. Lose your job? Blow up Times Square. Well experts says he sanctions violence under the guise of religion and he is drawing people in using pop culture, references, for example, even to Michael Jackson. He makes terror seem, well, modern, as his 5,000 Facebook fans will test.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Be careful. Do not trust the enemies of Allah.

FEYERICK (voice-over): When Anwar al-Awlaki speaks, he speaks largely to a western audience, inspiring and recruiting young men to join his lone wolf insurgency. Using the internet and his American credentials to do so.

(on camera): How dangerous is he considered, on a scale of one to ten?

SAJJAN GOHEL, ASIA-PACIFIC FOUNDATION: I would say ten.

FEYERICK: Counter terror expert Sajjan Gohel calls radical cleric al-Awlaki Osama bin Laden's heir apparent.

GOHEL: Often the United States is seen as a strategic hub for getting the message out it is a country that has enormous resources and potential for recruitment is large and significant.

FEYERICK (voice-over): If anyone knows, it is al-Awlaki. Born in America, he spent his teen years in Yemen before returning to the U.S. at the age of 19 to study engineering at Colorado State University. Though studying engineering, al-Awlaki soon realized a talent for preaching at a mosque near campus, where Mumtaz Hussain remembers him as a pious young man.

MUMTAZ HUSSAIN, ISLAMIC CENTER OF FORT COLLINS, COLORADO: He gave a few sermons. It was a long time ago, but they were very good.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And this is what had America refuses --

FEYERICK: Good enough, that without any formal training, al- Awlaki found himself preaching at the Denver Islamic society. He began recording CDs on Islam and the prophets. Bookseller Mohammed Norzi says they were bestsellers, appealing to young Muslims.

MOHAMMED NORZI: They are thirsty for knowledge and he comes across in a very simple way, you know, to explain to you what Islam is all about.

FEYERICK: From Denver, al-Awlaki moved to San Diego in 1996 with his new wife with. al-Awlaki was finding his voice and building a reputation as an Imam when he became the spiritual adviser to this mosque on the edge of San Diego. His sermons were usually in English.

LINCOLN HIGGIE III, FORMER AL-AWLAKI NEIGHBOR: Very friendly, outgoing.

FEYERICK: His neighbor, Lincoln Higgie, says they enjoyed talking about things like the orient and Taj Mahal.

HIGGIE: He liked to go Albacore fishing and I loved albacore and he found that out and his wife was a good cook. And so every so often, who would bring me some albacore fillets that his wife had cooked up.

FEYERICK: Al-Awlaki was also pursuing a master's in educational leadership at San Diego State University.

LT. COL. ANTHONY SHAFFER, CENTER FOR ADVANCED DEFENSE STUDIES: He spent a lot of time going through and learning not only the American society, but how people think in this society.

FEYERICK: It was in San Diego that al-Awlaki met an associate of this blind cleric, imprisoned for plotting to destroy New York City landmarks. It was also there these two eventual 9/11 hijackers attended his mosque.

SAJJAN GOHEL, ASIA-PACIFIC FOUNDATION: It's too much of a coincidence that the successor to Al Qaeda ideologically was also connected to two of the individuals that planned the worst terrorist attacks that we have ever seen.

FEYERICK: There's no evidence he knew of the 9/11 plot, but al Awlaki's neighbor remembers his ominous goodbye.

LINCOLN HIGGIE III, FORMER AL-AWLAKI NEIGHBOR: "Be careful."

FEYERICK: August, 2001, he comes and he says, "We're leaving." What was the conversation?

HIGGIE: He said, I'm going back to Virginia and he said shortly after that I will going to Yemen. I said, well, I do hope you will be coming become to San Diego soon. And he said, no, he says I won't be coming back. And he said, in a little while, you will understand why.

FEYERICK: Traveling cross country, Awlaki became a prominent imam at a mosque in Falls Church, Virginia. One of the hijackers followed him there. Another would soon join. He said about pursuing a Ph.D in human resources at George Washington University --

SHAFFER: What makes him most scary, he is actually adapting best business practices to the terrorist process.

FEYERICK: Imam Johari Abdul Malik, who arrived at the Falls Church mosque after al-Awlaki left says the radical cleric subverts the faith and prays on its followers.

IMAM JOHARI ABDUL MALIK, DAR AL-HIJRAH ISLAMIC CENTER: If you look at the statistics, most of the people who have been so-called radicalized, they know very little about their religion. They have been mobilized by their passion by their feelings, by their urges, by their insecurities.

(END VIDEOTAPE) FEYERICK: Now there is debate as to whether al-Awlacki is operational, actually planning plots himself. He appears to know nothing of making bombs or flying planes, but counterterrorism experts says his message, made in America, is his most powerful weapon. We see in California, Colorado, he's been to Texas, Virginia, the Midwest. He has traveled a lot.

ROBERTS: And the number of followers continues to grow. Great story this morning, Deb. Thanks for that look.

CHETRY: Thanks, Deb.

Following some breaking that's news just into CNN right now, a word of a workplace shooting taking place in Manchester, Connecticut. We're hearing that multiple people have been shot at the Hartford distributor's building in Manchester, according to police there. This appears to be a microbrew distributorship.

What we are hearing from South Windsor as well as state police is that they are assisting the Manchester police department in this situation, saying that multiple people have been shot, that some of the victims are in the building's parking lot, and they're saying that at les as of now, the gunman is believed to still be inside of that building.

People who were watching this and witnessing it, saying at least a half dozen ambulances were have been called to that building right now. So we are finding out more details about what appears to be a workplace shooting at a beer distributorship, Hartford distributors, in Manchester, Connecticut.

ROBERTS: In other news this morning, BP hoping to go for that static kill today. They had a little bit of a hydraulic leak that pushed it become yesterday, but they are hoping that later on today, they are going to be able to get to that.

Meanwhile, the raging drug war along the U.S./Mexico border is now of greater cause for concern for Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio. A spokeswoman for the Maricopa County lawman says Mexican drug lords have put as $1 million bounty on his head.

CHETRY: Joining us now on the phone to talk more about this is Maricopa County sheriff himself, Joe Arpaio. Thanks for joining us this morning, sheriff.

JOE ARPAIO, SHERIFF, MARICOPA COUNTY, ARIZONA: My pleasure.

CHETRY: I know it's quite early for you, just 5:30 your right now in Fountain Hills this morning be. But tell us more about this Mexican drug lords claim something there $1 million bounty on your head. What was your reaction when you heard this?

ARPAIO: This is nothing new. I was a regional director for the drug enforcement in Texas and fighting this for 17 years. I have received a lot of threats throughout my tenure. This is just another threat. Two years ago, there was a $5 million bounty, but we did a lot of work trying to solve that case in Mexico here. I wasn't able to solve it. But, you know, this is part of my job. They keep coming after me because of my fight against illegal immigration, drugs, high profile, I can go on and on.

But they are not going to deter me. In fact, I'm going to do more work against these criminals.

ROBERTS: So, sheriff, what happens in an instance like this? We know that the FBI is aware of this latest threat but we do not know at this point if they are investigating. If history is any guide, where does this go?

ARPAIO: Well, you know, I let them handle it. I do my job. Nothing changes. I'm out there every day. A lot of protesters, two years, have been in front of my building calling me every name in the book. So that's very volatile.

But I'm going to keep doing my job, so let them -- let the authorities find out if they can track these guys in Mexico or the United States.

CHETRY: Are you getting any increased protection around you?

ARPAIO: No. I just -- I'm not going to tie up all my deputies. I did that two years ago and cost about half a million dollar trying to investigate the threats in Mexico and here. But I'm not going to do normal work and I'm not concerned. I am concerned about my family, but nothing's going to deter me.

ROBERTS: You know, sheriff we hear so much about the violence along the border in towns Ciudad, like Juarez, but when you get up there in the major urban centers of the United States, what is the level of danger that these Mexican drug gangs represent?

ARPAIO: You know, one with concern about the violence across the border, may come into the United States, go after officials, law enforcement, violence over there. But you can't back down. Keep fighting the illegal immigration problem, the drug problem and see what happens.

CHETRY: Speaking of that, I want to ask you about the situation we had today, caught on tape right in the border city there of Juarez, of police apparently dodging some sort of explosive device. They are saying that it could show increasing sophistication when it comes to the drug cartels. What's your reaction?

ARPAIO: Well, you know, when I was down in Mexico city, we had violence, but not like this. This has gotten out of hand right now across that border. Something has to be done on both sides of the border to stop this chaos and -- attribute it to the drugs and the illegal immigration problem. Everybody forgets the human smuggling. That's the cause for a lot of violence, too. It is not just the drugs. ROBERTS: All right, Sheriff Joe Arpaio joining us this morning. Latest news is text message from -- allegedly from drug gangs of putting $1 million bounty on his head. As the sheriff said, nothing he hasn't dealt with in the past. Sheriff, thank you for joining us this morning.

ARPAIO: Thank you.

ROBERTS: All right, coming up in the Most News in the Morning, on the attack. 2010 is likely to have the most negative campaign ads ever. You have heard this before. No, really, this time for sure. Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group coming right up. It's 39 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Welcome back. We're looking at live pictures right now from Manchester, Connecticut, where we are tracking breaking news this morning. Multiple people have been shot at a beer distribution company in that town.

Reports say that three people are now dead. Police say shots were fired starting at 8:00 this morning, so, just about 40 minutes ago. The victims were in the parking lot and the gunman was inside the building.

Still there are some reports additionally saying that the gunman could be among the dead. Again, we are getting this from our affiliate, WTNH, and we are continuing to follow the latest on this workplace shooting, this apparent workplace shooting in Manchester, Connecticut, this morning.

ROBERTS: It's 41 minutes after the hour. Could hit a new low -- some political watch withers are saying this could be the nastiest, most negative election season of all time. Many voters will tell you they are not swayed by the ads, but there's little doubt that they do have an impact. And there are key races to already keep an eye on.

Joining us now live from Washington this morning is political media analyst Evan Tracey. Evan, we hear this almost every election cycle that this is going tonight nastiest one ever. But you are saying, no, really, this time it's true.

EVAN TRACEY, POLITICAL MEDIA ANALYST: Yes it is, John. One of these elections right now where there is an awful lot of voter anger out there, and if what we have seen so far is any indication, about a third of all political advertising has been negative already this year. This is a time usually reserved for those biographical spots and positive, warm and fuzzy stuff, so this is not going to be a fall for the faint of heart.

ROBERTS: Indeed, in politics defining your opponent is always the key, and they are certainly trying to hard in the state of Colorado where there is a particularly nasty Democratic race going on between Andrew Romanoff, who's actually being supported by president -- former president Clinton, and the current senator Michael Bennett. Let's take a quick look at a couple of comparison ads here and we will get you to talk about them.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Newspapers uncover the truth about Michael Bennett. Bennett worked for right-wing billionaire Phil Anchute. In a corporate takeover, they forced companies into bankruptcy and looted billions of dollars. Workers lost their jobs, Bennett made $11 million. One paper called Bennett's corporate raid "a real-life version of the movie "Wall Street."

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Have you seen Andrew Romanoff's ads about PAC money? Take an.

ROMANOFF: I don't take a dime of their money.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, really? Career politician Romanoff has been taking PAC money for almost ten years.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Andrew Romanoff the challenger, Bennett of course the incumbent. It's really a departure, Evan, for Bennett, who has avoided doing this in the past. Is this kind of a case where you've got to fight fire with fire?

TRACEY: Absolutely. He was targeted in this race. And Wall Street is a bad word. "Money" is a bad word in this election. What you are seeing in this particular democratic primary is that the candidates themselves are trying to run as the challenger, and this is harder for bent, even though he is an appointed senator, trying to position himself as outside of Washington, not part of the problem, part of the solution. And Romanoff is really trying to put that right back onto Bennett.

ROBERTS: And the Republican primary in the state of Colorado is even more nasty, Jane Norton against Ken Buck. Buck, himself, has refrained from doing the negative ads. They're coming from outside organizations like Americans for Job Security. Let's do a little comparison here and then we will get you to talk about t.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Liberal politicians will say anything, but talk is cheap. Take Jane Norton.

NORTON: The federal government is overspending. It is overtaxing. It is over-regulating.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Wait, what's the real Norton record? Norton pushed the largest tax hike in Colorado history.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Ken Buck is attacking Jane Norton. What's he saying? You might be surprised. Here is Ken Buck on tape.

BUCK: Why should you vote for me? Because I do not wear high heels.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Play that again.

BUCK: Why should you vote for me? Because I do not wear high heels.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: "Don't wear high heels," that can be taken by some people to be more than a little bit sexist. But Buck's strategy, letting outside groups do the dirty work here, obviously it gives him plausible deniability. He can say I have never run a negative ad against my opponent, but do voters really get that difference?

TRACEY: Sure. This is the classic good cop/bad cop, where Ken Buck is really relying on these groups to basically do his dirty work for him. You know, it is tough to say. Voters generally associate the ads with the candidates they are supporting or the candidates they are opposing.

So, a lot of times, voters don't differentiate between the two. And then you see in the Norton ad there, this is really sort of the Macaca moment 2010. And so I think that this race right now is going to look like a lot of races are going to look this fall.

We have the Citizens United case, which is going to put a lot more group money into these races and really, the charter of any third party group or issue group is to run a bunch of negative ads. So that's going to add a lot more fuel to the fire this fall.

ROBERTS: It could -- it could be a historic level of mudslinging, as you suggested at the top.

So -- so, this again is all part of the demonstration, that politics really has become a zero sum game and while it might be good for the candidates, because the negative ads, as distasteful as they are do work. Is it good for the country?

TRACEY: Well, you know, negative ads tend to be more truthful in some cases than positive ads because when you run a negative ad, you really need to be right on the facts or that ad is going to boomerang right back to you.

You know, obviously, we are in a country right now where there is a lot of anxiety with voters, the economy, jobs, the bailouts, health care. So, you know, a lot of these issues are going to be in play this fall and I don't think candidates are really going to wait around and run a bunch of warm and fuzzy spots. They are really going to go hard at these issues and they are going to go hard at their opponents.

ROBERTS: All right, Evan Tracey from the Campaign Media Analysis Group. Great to see you this morning. Thanks for joining us.

TRACEY: Sure John thanks.

ROBERTS: All right. CHETRY: All right, still ahead tropical storm Colin, now forming in the Atlantic. Where is this storm headed? Our Rob Marciano gives us the update coming up.

It's 46 minutes past the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROM MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Welcome back; from the CNN Severe Weather Center I'm Rob Marciano.

Tropical storm Colin formed overnight last night with 40-mile an hour winds moving west-northwest at about 23 miles an hour. But right now it's just over 2,000 miles from the southern tip of Florida, heading in that direction.

The forecast track of the National Hurricane Center does give it a bit of a right turn and also keeps it, at this point, below hurricane strength. When we get out today at four and five, things get a little bit dicey, so Outer Banks, East Coast, don't let your guard down just yet.

Central part of the country, don't turn off the AC, 107 in Fort Smith, Arkansas, a slew of record highs yesterday from Louisiana to Missouri back through Alabama and Tennessee. And I think we'll see similar numbers again today.

Only cool off is right now up in Chicago and some heavy thunderstorms rolling through that area. And most of this is just some heavy rain and certainly some flooding on some of the roadways so a slow go for your morning commute.

And the heat indices, look at all the pink on the map, these are heat warnings posted for all of these states, dangerous levels of the heat here, where temperatures up and over 105 and 115, at least what it feels like, we are looking for some relief to come later in the week towards the weekend.

That's a quick check on the weather. AMERICAN MORNING is coming right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Time for your "AM House Call" at 52 minutes past the hour.

If you're trying to lose some weight, a lot of people say there is two ways to do it; you cut out the carbs or you try to cut out the fat.

ROBERTS: But is one diet better for you than the other? A lot of people tout either one. A new study put that question to the test and here with today's "Fit Nation" report, our chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta.

So which is it Sanjay, do we cut out the bread and pasta or do we cut out the ice cream?

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, in terms of looking at this long-term over a couple of years it really seems to be a tie. At least according -- in terms of the metric that most people pay attention to, which is weight loss.

Really it was a tie. They found that on average, people lost 22 pounds within the first year on either diet and kept about 15 of those pounds off by the end of the second year. So, some good news there.

Also, those other things that they measured as well: triglycerides, for example, one of the lipids. They also measured diastolic blood pressure, which is the lower the number of the blood pressure and they found both diets did a good job of lowering those things as well.

What was interesting I think and a little bit surprising to a lot of people is that the low-carb/higher-fat diet actually did a better job at lowering a couple of other numbers.

One was the systolic blood pressure which is the upper number but also something known as HDL, which is good cholesterol, it tended to raise that number up as well.

So overall, the low-carb diet maybe slightly better for your heart health at least into your study here.

CHETRY: It's interesting and surprising that some people could you associate low-carb diets of course as being higher in fat and many times, they are. And of course, we are always told to avoid the saturated animal fats because it's bad for your heart.

GUPTA: That is right. That's right. And you know and so, what's interesting here. And the people in this study were on average age about 46, they are all overweight to start with, they were given some recommendations in terms of their diet.

So, low-carb, but when you eat the fats, try and make them leaner meats, try and eat more vegetables as well so you can have a low-carb and somewhat heart-healthy diet.

And keep in mind as well with the low-fat diet, you may be eating more flour, more sugar, more foods with what's known as a glycemic index. Raise your blood sugars and therefore raise your insulin and that drives more fat into the body.

So there are pros and cons to both diet. But again, with regard to heart health specifically, the low-carb diet has got a slight edge there.

ROBERTS: And you know, as anybody who has ever been on a diet will know, Sanjay, staying on it is one of the most difficult parts. Any advice for people who want to get on one of these diets or maybe just slightly restricting your caloric intake and stick with it?

GUPTA: Yes you know it's interesting. And people have all sorts of advice out there and I have been reporting on this for eight years now. A couple of things always seem to emerge to the top. One is if you're going to do this, to keep some sort of journal. And I know that sounds maybe very basic but to simply write down the food that you're eating on any given day and sort of keep track. That seems to have the best sort of outcome in terms of people actually sticking with it.

And also keeping in mind the numbers, John, as you're alluding to, 3,500 calories for example is about a pound. If you want to lose a pound a week you burn off -- 500 calories less in terms of eating every single day. Skip your morning bagel, skip the soda or the ice cream. Whatever it might be, depending on the kind of diet you are on, but the numbers do start to add up over time. Just simply eat a little bit less.

ROBERTS: Just as long as you don't have to cut out the Cheetos, I will be fine.

GUPTA: That is your guys morning snack up there, isn't it? 3:00; 4:00 in the morning.

CHETRY: He loves it.

ROBERTS: It's my vice.

CHETRY: Breakfast of champions.

ROBERTS: Thanks, Sanjay.

GUPTA: All right, guys.

ROBERTS: We've got about four minutes to the top of the hour. We will be right back after this break. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: We're following a breaking story this morning, this one out of Connecticut. Local reports say at least three people are dead at a shooting at a beer distribution company in the town of Manchester. Police say the shooting started about 8:00 Eastern. They also say the gunman is dead.

The Hartford newspaper talked with the director at Hartford Distributors. He told the paper that the shooter was, indeed, an employee. The director also says at the time of the shooting, there were about 30 to 35 people in the warehouse. Shifts were changing over, which is why so many people were at the parking lot at the time.

We will continue, of course, to keep following the story for you on CNN throughout the day.

CHETRY: And that is going to do it for us this morning. Thanks so much for being with us. Hope to see you back here bright and early tomorrow morning.

Meantime, the news continues, "CNN NEWSROOM" with Don Lemon starts right now.

Good morning Don.

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR, "CNN NEWSROOM": All right Kiran and John, good morning. Thank you very much.