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American Morning

Two Yemeni Suspects Being Held in the Netherlands; Danger Brewing with Hurricane Earl; The Women of Wall Street: Tonight: President Obama Oval Office Address

Aired August 31, 2010 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. And thanks so much for joining us on the Most News in the Morning on this Tuesday, the last day of August. I'm John Roberts.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Kiran Chetry. Glad you're with us. We have a lot of big stories we're following for you.

A question on a lot of people's minds this morning is will hurricane Earl make a direct hit on the East Coast? One of the forecast computer models is putting it awfully close to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Our Rob Marciano is tracking every move of the storm. He's going to be joining us with an updated forecast in just a moment.

ROBERTS: America's combat role in Iraq officially ends today. Tomorrow, only 50,000 U.S. troops will remain. Their mission is to assist and advise. But some of those soldiers tell our Chris Lawrence, sure doesn't feel like the war is over.

CHETRY: And women on Wall Street. Just when they were starting to make it, things got tough. But could they be the voice of reason that perhaps prevents another collapse? It's part of our A.M. Original series, "Making it in a Man's World."

ROBERTS: But first this hour, danger brewing as hurricane Earl winds up for a possible strike on the East Coast. Look at the radar reveals that the storm is a big one, category 4, with winds of 135 miles an hour. Right now, parts of North Carolina, including Cape Hatteras, fall within the storm's cone of uncertainty, and already, Earl has been lashing the Caribbean. One of our iReporters sent us this video interest St. Kitts. The hurricane kicked up dangerous surf, knocking down trees and cutting power to many people on the island.

This is what it looked like along the northern coast of Puerto Rico late yesterday. This iReporter says supermarkets are out of stock, gas stations are full, and 100,000 people there are without power, some 30,000 without water. But they hope to get the systems back online soon.

(WEATHER BREAK)

CHETRY: Now to a CNN security watch. Was it a dry run for a terrorist attack? Two suspects, U.S. residents of Yemeni descent, are now being held in the Netherlands. They were arrested at the Amsterdam airport yesterday after coming in on a flight from Chicago.

Suspicious items were found in one checked bagged that included knives and box cutters. But that luggage was not with them in Amsterdam. Instead it wound up in Washington, D.C. Homeland Security Correspondent Jeanne Meserve has been working the story for us from the beginning and joins us from now Washington. What's the latest right now, Jeanne?

JEANNE MESERVE, HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kiran, the two men have been identified as Ahmed Mohammed Nasser al-Soofi and Hezem al-Murisi by U.S. law enforcement. Their still in custody in Amsterdam, and according to Dutch prosecutors, they're still being questioned. A spokesman for the prosecutors would not say if they've been arrested or at this point charged with any crime.

The fear expressed by U.S. authorities is that they may have been testing aviation security. The Department of Homeland Security says in a statement "Suspicious items were located in check luggage. The items were not deemed to be dangerous in and of themselves."

According to U.S. law enforcement sources, those suspicious items included watches attached to a shampoo bottle, cell phones attached to a medicine bottle, knives, box cutters.

Now, none of these items are prohibited in checked luggage, but they do raise concerns for a couple of reasons. One, because of the London liquid explosives plot of 2006, and because watches and cell phones can be used as triggering and timing devices.

Al-Soofi started his travel in Birmingham, flying to Chicago according to law enforcement sources. According to sources, he was ticketed on a flight from Chicago to Washington Dulles Airport and then on to Dubai and Yemen. His luggage was on that flight.

But both men ended up on a different flight, Chicago to Amsterdam, sitting near one another. Also on that flight according to law enforcement sources, federal air marshals. A U.S. government official says at least one bag was pulled off the Dulles flight and items inside are being examined.

A couple of concerns here -- how did the men and their luggage end up on different flights in violation of U.S. security protocols, and what exactly were those items in the luggage? Were these men conducting a test run for some future terrorist plot? Those are the questions being asked, but as of yet, Kiran, no answers.

CHETRY: Was more suspicion perhaps than usual raised by the fact that they were of Yemeni decent, knowing the history of other potential terror suspects in the past?

MESERVE: Well, we certainly know that Yemen has become a place of great, great concern because of Anwar al-Awlaki who is believed to be there and the influence he's wielded. He's been connected with the Ft. Hood shooter. Also there are suspicions that Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has had other ties, including to the Christmas Day bomber. So, yes, Yemen a big red flag that went up here. CHETRY: Jeanne Meserve continuing to work your sources throughout the morning, thanks so much.

Also in a couple of minutes we'll be joined by CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen. Among the questions he wants to discuss as well, the Christmas Day bomb, whoever built that bomb has still not been found. So there are still a lot of questions out there.

And did security protocol go the way it was supposed to go at the airport? Apparently not with the mixing of the luggage and the flight with the people that made their way to Amsterdam while their luggage ended up in Washington.

ROBERTS: Yes, there's no way that luggage should have gone on that flight.

Last American combat troops are pulling out of Iraq today, heading home seven years after its spectacular start. "Operation Iraqi Freedom" is officially over and "Operation New Dawn" begins now.

CHETRY: The president is calling it a "promise kept." He's heading to Ft. Bliss, Texas to greet the troops, then back to the Oval Office where tonight he will address the nation. Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden is in Baghdad this morning assuring the Iraqis that America is not going to abandon them.

ROBERTS: When tomorrow comes, 50,000 American troops will still remain in Iraq, their official capacity now is to advise and assist. Our Pentagon correspondent Chris Lawrence is live in Baghdad this morning. And Chris, you've been embedded with some of those soldiers who are staying behind. For many of them it doesn't feel like a whole lot has changed.

CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: How could it, John? When you're loaded down with body armor, crammed into some of these humvees, and it's 125 degrees outside, there is nothing easy about the job that they're still doing here.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LAWRENCE: Loaded down in Kevlar, on the same dusty roads -- don't tell these soldiers that combat troops are gone.

STAFF SGT. ADAM STEFFENS, THIRD BRIGADE, FOURTH ID: It's a misnomer. It sounds like we all went home. But really we're all still here.

LAWRENCE: Or in the words of Staff Sergeant Adam Steffens --

STAFF SGT. ADAM STEFFENS, THIRD BRIGADE, FOURTH ID: These are the same guys that rolled in here in 2003. That just unleashed a fury.

LAWRENCE: Sergeant John Roberts is on his third tour. Lieutenant Colonel John Batista deployed to Diyala, Baqubah, and Baghdad. Third brigade Fourth I.D. is on its fourth deployment here. Some of the soldiers conducting "New Dawn's" non-combat mission are some of the most hardened battle troops in the army.

STEFFENS: There were times and places when you'd had streets run red with blood.

LAWRENCE (on camera): So it is better, much better. But the sergeant told me he'll never be able to totally let his guard down.

STEFFENS: The IED threat's always there.

LAWRENCE: Buried in the ground, camouflaged as trash. And if enough insurgents get together, the sergeant says they'll even try a complex direct attack.

STEFFENS: They want to mount up on us. They want to get squirrelly and go toe-to-toe for a while. It is rare. Most of those guys are already dead so it doesn't really happen too much. But it is something that we've got to be careful of.

LAWRENCE (voice-over): Even before "New Dawn's" official beginning, American and Iraqi troops have been living together on bases like this. Their new advise-and-assist mission means U.S. troops are still in convoys, still on patrols, but following the Iraqis, not leading them.

FIRST LT. WILL SWEARINGEN, U.S. ARMY: We're there, but we're watching and we're teaching, coaching, we're kind of prodding them on to the right decisions.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LAWRENCE: So here's how it works. Say Iraqi troops have decided to go on a raid and they're asking the Americans for some helicopter air assistance. There would be say two to three American humvees on the ground helping coordinate that air assistance, perhaps giving the Iraqis some real time video so the Iraqi commander can see exactly where his troops are in relation to the air support. John?

ROBERTS: Do they think the threat is going to subside given the passage of time? One of the Iraqi generals said he doesn't think his forces will be really up and running for another ten years.

LAWRENCE: That's right, and it really depends on where you are, John. If you're in certain areas it can seem a lot more peaceful than others. We know northern Iraq is still going to be very, very violent potentially for the next few years.

So without a stable, functioning government here in Iraq, a lot of people say this drawdown is really, really a dangerous thing to do. But some of the American commanders say, look, the Iraqi army, the troops have progressed to the point where they can at least take the lead as long as the Americans are there to help them.

ROBERTS: Chris Lawrence live for us in Baghdad this morning. Chris, thanks. President Obama, by the way, preparing to deliver a primetime speech on Iraq from the Oval Office tonight. In 20 minutes time we'll get a preview when we're joined live by White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs. That's at 7:30 eastern right here on American Morning.

CHETRY: Still ahead, in auto dealership across America, a new sticker will be on the window in the future to help you figure out how fuel efficient the car you want really is. It will be a system grading system from "a" to "d." We're going to explain more on how it will work and what new info is out there.

ROBERTS: You've probably seen the signs out in front of drugstores and medical clinics. Flu season has arrived. What you need to know about new vaccines being offered this year. We'll have that for you coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. It's 14 minutes past the hour right now.

Dutch authorities are questioning two U.S. residents of Yemeni decent after suspicious items were found in their checked airplane luggage including knives and box cutters as well as bottles strapped to cell phones and watches taped together, items that some authorities say could be "mock bombs."

Potentially more alarming -- while the suspects flew to Amsterdam, their bags wound up in Washington after they made a last- minute change to their flight at the airport in Chicago. So who are these men and what were they potentially up to?

Here for some analysis this morning is CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen. He joins us from Washington.

Good morning, Peter.

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Good morning, Kiran.

CHETRY: So Dutch police suspect that this could be as they put it, quote, "preparation for a terrorist attack." Given the elements that we know so far, what's your take on what may have been going on here?

BERGEN: Well, we don't know as Jeanne Meserve pointed out, they haven't been charged with anything yet but we've got three different factors that raised red flags. One, on an international flight their bags go elsewhere, they go somewhere else. Two, they were heading to Yemen. They are of Yemeni decent. Al Qaeda and the Arabian Peninsula is headquartered in Yemen, has a history of trying to bring down American aircraft. And finally, you know, not many people take cell phones to bottles and put them in their luggage. That looks kind of weird. So taking together, those three things raise a lot of red flags.

CHETRY: Right. So let's break down those elements because they are the parts that we had questions about as well. First of all, that was a breach of airport protocol, an error, would you call it, that they were able to get from Chicago to Amsterdam, their luggage from Chicago to Dulles in Washington?

BERGEN: I think on an international flight, Kiran, that's quite unusual. I mean, it's one thing on a domestic American flight sometimes that happens, you miss your flight. But I mean you're supposed to very carefully match the baggage with the passenger particularly on an international flight.

CHETRY: And what could they have then done, I mean, if they had questioned these guys and realized earlier on, I mean that baggage, that checked baggage, is already in the air.

BERGEN: Yes, I mean, then it's gone. And if indeed this was a dry run, it sort of partially succeeded. It showed that you could at least theoretically get these things on to an international flight that you weren't on.

CHETRY: Right. We talk about the Yemen connection right now. We talk about concerns about, as you said, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the cleric, al-Awlaki, who, I guess there is, you know, a "shoot to kill" on his head in terms of him being a U.S. cleric now hiding out, possibly, many believe, in Yemen. What bigger security apparatus is in place when it comes to countries where people are suspected of perhaps harboring terrorists?

BERGEN: Well, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Yemen is right now subject to enormous interest from U.S. authorities. They underestimated the threat posed by this group. They kind of believed that they were just a group with a local capacity. The Christmas Day 2009 attempt to bring down Northwest Flight 253 demonstrated, in fact, that they could reach out to the United States. They also tried to kill leading Saudi counterterrorism official a few months earlier with a plastic bomb very similar to the kind of bomb that was used on Northwest 253. And, Kiran, I think the main concern I think from counterterrorism officials I've spoken to is whoever built that bomb that got on to Flight 253 is probably still out there.

CHETRY: Right. And just to remind people you're speaking about Abdulmutallab. He was the one that was arrested for carrying it, known as the "underpants bomber." Correct?

BERGEN: Correct.

CHETRY: And that was explosives that went on undetected?

BERGEN: Yes, it went through metal detectors. It's undetectable by metal detectors. And a very similar device probably built by the same bomb maker was also used to try and kill a Saudi counterterrorism official just a few months earlier. Again, it may come up very unusual plastic explosives, got through metal detectors and very nearly killed Prince Muhammad Bin Nayef (ph) who's a leading Saudi counterterrorism official.

CHETRY: Right. BERGEN: So, this bomb maker is -- there's no evidence he's dead or gone away and he's probably not gone into retirement. And he is really I think a major concern and he has got the capabilities to smuggle -- get somebody to smuggle a bomb, undetected on to a flight. It doesn't necessarily have to be an American flight. I think you can blow up a plane anywhere. It would put a huge crimp on global tourism, aviation, business, et cetera.

CHETRY: Exactly. The other question, though, is how well do you think U.S. intelligence has worked in this case, and in the prior cases in terms of people being on lists, perhaps flagged ahead of time? In this case, we didn't see that happen. It was -- actually they were stopped because of the unusual nature of their luggage. How well do you think the security apparatus is working?

BERGEN: Well, I think, you know, it sort of depends. I mean, the cases, a lot of the people that are involved in these cases don't have criminal records, so-called "clean skins" who don't necessarily have prior very obvious jihadi connections. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, you mentioned, you know, got on to a flight with an underwear with a bomb concealed in his underwear without a problem.

So the system hasn't worked often but it also has worked in other cases. Najibullah Zazi, an Afghan-American who's trying to blow up bombs in Manhattan about a year ago, you know, he was picked up on an NSA intercept and he was tracked and his whole plot collapsed.

So, you know, it's a mixed bag. I mean, but clearly to the thing (INAUDIBLE) terrorist attacks. We're now a decade after 9/11. Really only one or two significant incidents where somebody has actually executed an attack that actually went through, one in Little Rock and one in Fort Hood, Texas. And so 14 Americans have died in the last nine years and so that's a pretty good record if you think of it in the context of 3,000 Americans dying in one day back on 9/11.

CHETRY: Yes, that's some perspective for sure. And again, no charges yet but we'll continue to follow this story.

Peter Bergen for us. Thanks for joining me this morning.

BERGEN: Thank you, Kiran.

ROBERTS: President Obama preparing for a big address from the Oval Office tonight on the end of our military mission in Iraq. In ten minutes' time, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs joins us live to preview what the president is going to say and the two words that you won't hear him utter.

It's 21 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Twenty-two minutes past the hour. We're "Minding Your Business" now.

Fuel economy stickers on new cars may be in for a major overhaul. The Environmental Protection Agency as well as the Transportation Department want consumers to be better informed. So by 2012, they're proposing new stickers. These stickers would use a letter grade, A- plus through D, to rate the vehicle's fuel economy and also its level of greenhouse gas emissions. The stickers will also inform buyers how much money they'll save over five years, comparing hybrids with gas- only powered vehicles.

ROBERTS: The Food and Drug Administration has uncovered a host of serious safety violations at nine Iowa farms that are linked to the recall of a half a billion eggs. Inspectors finding massive fly infestations, rodents and piles of manure at the farms. The salmonella outbreak has already sickened close to 1,500 people.

CHETRY: Also, flu season is here and health officials are urging just about everyone to get vaccinated. There's a new high-dose shot that's being offered to seniors. Also, a record vaccine supply is expected this year and it offers an all-in-one inoculation that promises protection against the swine flu strain and two other types of influenza.

ROBERTS: Women on Wall Street. They're outnumbered by their male counterparts, but things are changing. We'll show you an "A.M. Original," "Making It in a Man's World. It's coming right up.

It's 24 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: We've got 26 minutes after the hour. Your top stories just a few minutes away. But first an "A.M. Original," something that you'll see only on AMERICAN MORNING.

For women on Wall Street, it's always been an uphill battle.

CHETRY: Yes, but finally, women who have had to work so hard are making their mark and just in time. Here's Christine Romans with our "A.M. Original," "Making It in a Man's World."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The value of --

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When these guys want to pull their hair out, Sara Farneti is the only one who can put hers in a ponytail. In a room of 19 sports-loving men, she's learned how to fit right in.

SARA FARNETI, TRADER, BNY MELLON: I have a great time. And I learn a lot more about sports. I take golf lessons. At one time, I could tell you all the names of the Mets players. Not anymore, but at one point I could tell you that.

ROMANS: That Sara is the only one in her Wall Street dugout is not unusual. In finance, the majority of women are administrative workers. The industry-supported Center for Work-Life Policy says only 14 percent are executives. Karen Peetz is one of them. (on camera): It is known as a man's world on Wall Street.

KAREN PEETZ, SNR. EXEC. VP, BNY MELLON: It is. It is.

ROMANS: Why do you think that is? And has that changed since you've been in the business?

PEETZ: Yes. Well, I think it is known for that because there are mostly men at the top.

ROMANS (voice-over): In fact, not a single woman has ever been chief executive of a major financial institution. Aside from what may be a glass ceiling, the long hours are also a challenge for most women. The average workweek on Wall Street, 73 hours.

(on camera): At a time when women are really hitting their peak in their professional career --

PEETZ: Right.

ROMANS: When they should be doing networking --

PEETZ: Right.

ROMANS: -- is also the same time they're hitting their peak in their home life.

PEETZ: Absolutely.

ROMANS: And that's something that's a real -- it's a hurdle.

PEETZ: Absolutely. It's a hurdle, and I think what I counsel a lot of young women about is you're just not going to have that much time to yourself if you go, if you go kind of whole hog into the job and then as equally into the family. Then what gives is a lot of your personal time. And so many women are willing to give that up. But some aren't.

ROMANS (voice-over): A work life tradeoff Morgan Stanley managing director Carla Harris denies.

CARLA HARRIS, MANAGING DIRECTOR, MORGAN STANLEY: It's very important that you understand that this is a client business. And your mantra should be when your client says jump, the answer is how high. And you need to figure out how that works for you. But I in no way think that it is mutually exclusive. That in order to be successful in this business you can't have an outside life, you can't have a real family life, you can't have a philanthropic life. That, again, is a perception. That is not reality.

ROMANS: Karen Peetz does believe attitudes about what women bring to Wall Street are improving and hopes that that will lift their stock.

(on camera): Some women who we've interviewed have told us you almost have to be a better manager than the men because you can't come off to -- you can't come off like the queen bee but you also can't come off too soft? But you can't -- you know what I mean?

PEETZ: Absolutely. There's a lot of - there's absolutely a lot of kind of human interaction that is different and often people say, well, you know, is it harder being a woman? I think it's actually easier because you can use some of those personal skills. And you're also memorable because there aren't that many of you, so people will remember.

ROMANS: True. True.

PEETZ: And that's OK.

ROMANS: Just like Sara --

FARNETI: It would just be nice to say, you know, I'm the first woman to hold this role of this company.

ROMANS: Christine Romans, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTS: And tomorrow, the hard hat hits the glass ceiling. Fewer than 13 percent of people employed in construction are women and many of those jobs are behind desks. But one woman is trying to change all that by helping to rebuild Ground Zero. "Making It in a Man's World," tomorrow right here on AMERICAN MORNING.

CHETRY: Meanwhile, we're crossing the half-hour right now. Time for this morning's top stories.

We're on the lookout for Earl. Up and down the east coast, communities are bracing for the now-Category 4 hurricane. It's packing winds of 135 miles per hour and forecasters say that the storm could approach the North Carolina coast by Thursday night. Already the storm took a swipe at Puerto Rico, flooding roads, leaving more than 100,000 people without power.

ROBERTS: This morning, two men are being questioned by authorities in the Netherlands. U.S. officials suspect Ahmed Mohammed Nasser al Soofi and Hezem al Murisi may have been trying to test security at U.S. airports when they flew from Amsterdam to Chicago.

Their checked bags wound up in Washington. Officials say the luggage contained "suspicious items" including cell phones and watches that were taped to plastic bottles as well as knives and box cutters.

CHETRY: Efforts to save the 33 trapped Chilean miners finally got under way this morning. Rescuers began drilling the rescue tunnel. It is a process though that could take more than three months. Rescue workers are also making plans to begin sending down hot food as well as sandwiches. Until now the men have been surviving on liquids.

ROBERTS: At 5:00 Eastern tonight, America's combat mission in Iraq officially concludes. And about an hour from now, President Obama will mark the historic event by heading to Ft. Bliss in El Paso, Texas, where he'll meet with U.S. troops. He's also scheduled to give a prime time address from the Oval Office at 8:00 Eastern tonight.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs joins us live from the briefing room with a preview of his speech. Good to see you again, Robert.

ROBERT GIBBS, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Good to see you.

ROBERTS: Before we talk about the address, I wanted to ask you more about these possible terror arrests in Amsterdam. What's the White House's view of this?

Were these two men who are under arrest for preparing a terrorist attack, do you believe they were conducting a dry run for a future attack?

GIBBS: Well, John, we don't know exactly what they were doing. Obviously it is a series of some suspicious events, some information sharing happened between international governments which is exactly how the system is going to work. Those two individuals were pulled out and we're going to do a vigorous investigation to see if we can match up any of the circumstances that were involved with any intelligence that we might have. So the intelligence community and law enforcement are busy looking through all of these events as we speak.

ROBERTS: Do you know these two men, Ahmed Al Soofi and Hal Murisi, were they previously known to the government?

And if not, what have we learned about them since?

GIBBS: All I'm told, John, is that they were not on any of the terror watch lists. They were not even on any of the tag lists. Obviously, I think it has been stated in the newspapers on several occasions, they went through some extra screening. Their bags were pulled off of a flight because they were not on that flight.

So obviously extra precautions were taken as some of these circumstances popped up, and now obviously the next step is getting some answers to why those curious circumstances happened in the first place.

ROBERTS: All right. On to the president's address tonight, Robert, and the end of the combat operations in Iraq. We're pulling troops out of Iraq, all combat forces have left. There's 50,000 remaining in an advise-and-assist capacity. The president promised to end the war.

Has he won the war?

GIBBS: Well, look, John. I don't think winning the war is going to look like it has in previous decades. There will be no surrender ceremony on a battleship out at sea but there's no question that today marks a significant transition in our relationship with Iraq.

Our combat mission ends. Iraqi security forces are in the lead and quite frankly, the future of Iraq will be determined and written by the Iraqi people. That's as it should be, because quite frankly, john and you'll hear the president discuss this tonight - we've got some very big challenges here at home and the nation here that we must rebuild.

ROBERTS: It is interesting when you said this isn't going to be a typical end of the war, there will be no surrender. There will be no signing ceremony on the deck of a battleship. That's exactly what the Bush administration had said about this, President Bush and Vice president Cheney and I know that the president is going to call former President Bush this morning.

Will he tonight during his speech give credit to the president's surge strategy for helping to better the security situation there so that the political process could proceed?

GIBBS: Well, John, I don't think there is any doubt. And you heard candidate Barack Obama say that adding 20,000 of our brave men and women who, quite frankly, John, I think we all share the belief that they are owed a tremendous amount of gratitude. The president is in awe of their sacrifice.

We knew that adding those men and women in there would improve the security situation, but the reason we are where we are today is because of an improved political situation, we know that the Sunni awakening, Sunni tribes in the western part of Iraq began not to fight with but to fight against Al Qaeda. And all of those circumstances led to a point in which we're at today.

I will say this, John - I think many people believe that when the president made a commitment to end our combat mission in Iraq by August 31st, 2010, I am not sure many people believed that he could pull it off. He's kept his word. He will talk about the fact that we've made a determination that in July 2011, we'll begin to transition our mission in Afghanistan as well.

ROBERTS: Just back on the surge strategy. There's no question that the surge strategy did improve security. I think most military and political analysts would agree. But you said that it would improve security but it was the political aspect of it that took place that allowed Iraq to come to where it is today. But most military and political analysts would tell you that the improvement in security, because of the surge, set the conditions for the political aspect of it.

I'm wondering again will the president credit President Bush's surge strategy for setting the conditions to allow withdrawal?

GIBBS: John, you asked me the same question I'm likely to give you the same answer. Again, I don't think anybody doubted that the 20,000 people were going to improve the security situation in Iraq. It was the political accommodation that had to happen. It was Sunni, Shia and Kurd that had to decide not to fight one another in sectarian violence but to live and work together and chart Iraqis' future together.

That's why we're marking this milestone today. That's what's been accomplished. Obviously the formation of the next government has taken some time and the vice president on the ground to help that process along. Today marks the end of our combat mission and I think as I said, the men and women in uniform are owed a tremendous amount of thanks.

ROBERTS: There's been an uptick in violence in Iraq, as you know, over the past few weeks as American forces prepare to pull out and then did pull out. We've seen dozens and dozens of Iraqis die. As you pointed out, the Iraqi government has yet to form, at this point following elections earlier this year.

Is the president confident that the 50,000 American forces who are left behind can stay in an advise-and-assist role and will not be drawn back into combat?

GIBBS: We are not going to be drawn back into combat. Obviously they're there to assist if there are counter terrorism missions that need to take place. I think what's important to understand, John, as we talk about violence in Iraq and General Ray Odierno told this to the president in the situation room just a few weeks ago, even the levels of violence that we're seeing now are among the lowest levels of reported violence in the 7 1/2 years that our troops have been in Iraq.

Again, a testament of the training of the Iraqi security forces by American forces. They were in the lead for providing security for that election. They are now going to be in the lead and responsible for providing security throughout the country of Iraq so that again Iraqis can determine their future and Americans can get about rebuilding this country.

ROBERTS: We look forward to the speech tonight, Robert Gibbs, thanks for joining us this morning.

GIBBS: Thanks, John.

ROBERTS: And you can see the president's address live right here on CNN, 8:00 Eastern time.

CHETRY: Meanwhile, the tragedy continues in Pakistan. Things are getting pretty desperate for many. There's fights over food. People stealing water. Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta is on the ground. He's right in it reporting on what's going on in the wake of that devastating flood. We'll be live with Sanjay in Pakistan, next.

It's 38 minutes past the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: It's 41 minutes past the hour right now. And we continue to check in with Pakistan. This is a nation that is left in a very desperate situation after the disastrous flooding there. Right now there are fights taking place as people struggle for survival, literally fighting for what little food and water is available.

ROBERTS: Yes, when relief does arrive, it is difficult to get it out to the people who need it most. Our chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, is live. He is in Karachi this morning.

And Sanjay, for the people of Pakistan, it really is just all about getting the basic necessities that they need to survive day to day.

DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. It really is. It becomes survival of the fittest in so many ways. Look, it is a logistical challenge to be able to coordinate care for 20 percent of the country. Obviously, that's going to be very, very challenging. But we want to take a closer look at what works and what doesn't work when it comes to aid.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GUPTA (voice-over): Ever wonder what desperation looks like? This is it.

(on camera): Now the police are coming in to basically break up this demonstration. So what happened here was locals basically set up a road block right over here. As soon as an aid truck would come in, they'd basically storm that aid truck and try and steal as many supplies as they could.

(voice-over): They're desperate and they are quick to tell you about it. It wasn't so much anger as it was bitter frustration and hopelessness. Thousands of displaced people feeling forgotten and ignored.

(on camera): Here's how it is supposed to work. A much more organized camp, for example, a family over here, they have mats, they have tents that can withstand a lot of rain that's coming.

If you look inside this tent over here, you see water jugs, you see cooking oil, they've got cooking utensils.

(voice-over): The problem is you won't find many camps like this one. Most look like this. Thousands of families, low on tents, low on food, thick with desperation.

(on camera): One of the really difficult situations here is that there's no mechanism of distributing the aid. It is just awful to think about. As people describe it to us, they say it is just really embarrassing to be treated like animals.

Where is all the aid going? We see trucks with aid in it but it doesn't seem to be getting to people who need it the most.

(voice-over): So we followed this aid truck in the distance. First sign of hope these people felt in weeks. But what was about to happen was outrageous. First, government rangers with big sticks organized. Women and children here, men over there. All of them waiting in the hot sun.

(on camera): This is hard to believe. These people have been waiting now for some time for food. Women and children over here, men over here. The truck was there with aid in it. Pulled in to the gas station, and now they're just leaving.

(voice-over): There was no explanation for this. But more importantly, all these people still hungry, still thirsty. (on camera): This is incredibly heart breaking. People are waiting quite a while for the truck, thinking they're going to get aid. They've received nothing.

(voice-over): Commander Faisal Shah has the impossible task of trying to feed 20 million people.

(on camera): Have you been out to some of these camps outside of here and talked to some of the people? Have you actually heard from them? Because I hear what you're saying but when I talk to them I hear something entirely else.

CMDR. FAISAL SHAH, PAKISTAN NAVY MARINE CORPS: People are desperate, but there are also people who have been very well prepared. I believe most of them are being fed regularly.

GUPTA (voice-over): But I saw a different story in the dozen refugee camps I visited. There is no regular meals here. Desperation mounts.

(on camera): There it's going on again. People just basically just going in, trying to get whatever they can get.

I just want to give you a quick idea what have can happen to some of the most precious commodities needed when something like this happens. There was just a riot out here. Needed medicines, antibiotics ended up on the ground shattered, literally.

(voice-over): Desperation has its consequences and in this case, no one benefited.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHETRY: We had a signal with Sanjay, we lost it. Obviously it's tough to get in and out there in Pakistan, but he gave us a look at exactly what's going on there. If you want to try to find out how you can help, just head to the special section of our web site, Impact Your World. It is CNN.com/impact.

ROBERTS: Hurricane Earl getting stronger in the Atlantic Ocean while tropical storm Fiona forms not far behind. It is going to be a one-two punch that could affect the East Coast? Rob Marciano is coming up next.

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ROBERTS: Hurricane Earl churning away in the warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Where is Earl headed? The big question we all have this morning. Rob Marciano is here to answer it, he's at the CNN headquarters in Atlanta.

Good morning, Rob.

ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, guys.

Unfortunately it is headed towards the U.S. Will it make a direct strike? Well, that is yet to be seen. We may get lucky and have this thing peel out to sea. But right now it is a mean storm, 135-mile-an- hour winds. A category 4 storm. There you see eye shrinking a little bit. That's not always good news. It still looks as strong as ever. Little bit of dry air here may knock it down temporarily but we think it is going to stay a major hurricane for some time to come.

Right now a couple hundred miles north of San Juan. They got a glancing blow. The U.S. and British Virgin Islands got hit pretty good with this and now it is heading towards the Turks and Caicos. Tropical storm warnings posted for them. That may be upgraded to a hurricane warning. Tropical storm watches are posted for parts of the Bahamas.

Behind that is Fiona. Doesn't look nearly as organized back here and this was named yesterday quickly and upgraded to tropical storm status. What's going to happen with the Fiona? Here's the forecast track. It'll probably remain a little bit weaker than Earl as it heads into kind of its wake. Hopefully makes a right turn, stays out to sea but you never know, especially when a major hurricane goes through, acts like a blocking back, there could be eddies behind this thing that keep it a little bit held back.

We'll worry about Fiona couple days from now. Let's deal with Earl now. This forecast track with intensity forecast. Stays a category 4, stays a major hurricane and then hopefully bypasses the Carolinas But notice the shaded area. That's the margin for error allowed by the National Hurricane Center. That keeps the Carolinas, that keeps Virginia, the Delmarva, Jersey, Long Island, much of New England especially eastern New England, within the realm of possibility of at least seeing direct impacts from this be it rain, wind, and some waves and potentially one or two land falling strikes here across the East Coast.

It's going to be a tenuous next couple of days, that's for sure.

(WEATHER REPORT)

CHETRY: Top stories, couple of minutes away, including a possible dry run for a terror attack. Suspicious luggage on an international at flight. Two men now in custody and authorities trying to get to the bottom of it, this morning. Our Jeanne Meserve is working her sources.

ROBERTS: Plus, inside a collapsed mine. Billowing smoke, thousands of tons of rock between you and sunlight. Gary Tuchman takes a look at the conditions the Chilean miners are likely facing right now.

CHETRY: And he wants to be shown the gold. Congressman Ron Paul now calling for an audit. He says that if there's really gold at Fort Knox, prove it. Those stories and much more at the top of the hour.

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ROBERTS: Four minutes now, until the top of the hour. Time for your A.M. House Call and stories about your health. Folks moving to New York can rest assured their new apartments will not come with bedbugs. A new law requires landlords to provide new tenants with a history of the building's bed bug infestation. The measure comes as New York deals with a rising number of bedbug complaints.

CHETRY: I just thought of something. The less we're actually sleeping in bed, the less we'd get bitten by one of these things. So this is great.

ROBERTS: Considering this building here had its own infestation I'm not so sure it's such good thing to be coming into work that early in the morning.

CHETRY: The exterminators did their job. Fingers crossed.

Good news for your local bar. Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin say that heavy drinkers live longer than people who don't drink at all. The study tracked 1,800 people over 20 years and during that time they found that 69 percent of nondrinkers died compared to 60 percent of heavy drinkers, and 41 percent of moderate drinkers. Researchers say that one reason could be that people who drink a lot are more social, thus perhaps more relaxed, happier, and less stressed.

ROBERTS: If you're looking to eat healthier, you might want to try the new Paleo diet -- translation, eat like a caveman. That means meat, poultry, fish, fruits, vegetables, nuts, seeds, mushrooms, roots, the odd saber tooth tiger all in. And grains, dairy, beans, legumes, refined sugar and anything processed is out. There you go, the Paleo diet.

CHETRY: No Twinkies allowed.

ROBERTS: Of course, they'll make it fashionable and call it the Paleo diet.

CHETRY: The dino diet.

We're going to take a quick break. We're going to have your top stories coming up in just a few minutes.

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