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Dry Run for Terror Attack?; Hurricane Earl Aftermath; Obama to Address Nation Tonight; Hurricane Earl, a Category 4; Too Posh to Push

Aired August 31, 2010 - 07:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. Glad you're with us on this Tuesday. It is August 31st. Summer is slipping through our fingers as we speak.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: Sand in the hourglass of time.

CHETRY: I'm Kiran Chetry.

ROBERTS: Good morning. I'm John Roberts. Thanks for joining us.

Let's get you caught up on what happened overnight. Two men being held in the Netherlands this morning for questioned after their checked luggage turned out the Washington packed with suspicious items. Could the two men have been on a practice run for a future terrorist attack? Homeland Security correspondent Jeanne Meserve is following that for us this morning.

CHETRY: The East Coast is on high alert and watching the radar this morning, what could be a serious blow by Hurricane Earl. The storm has now grown to category 4 hurricane and does not show any signs of weakening, packing winds of 135 miles per hour. It's already battered the Caribbean. And this morning, Rob Marciano is in the extreme weather center tracking the storm's every move.

ROBERTS: America's combat mission in Iraq coming to an end today. President Obama is preparing to address the nation from the Oval Office tonight about the U.S. role in Iraq moving forward.

Earlier on AMERICAN MORNING, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs insisted despite the recent violence in Iraq, American soldiers will not be drawn back into combat.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERT GIBBS, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Even the levels of violence we are seeing now are among the lowest levels of recorded violence in the 7 1/2 years that our troops have been in Iraq -- again, testament to the training of the Iraqi security forces by American forces. They've been -- they were in the lead provided security for that election. They are now going to be in the lead-in responsible for providing security throughout the country of Iraq so that, again, Iraqis can determine their future and Americans can get about rebuild country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: In a moment, why the president will choose his words very carefully tonight when he speaks to the American people.

CHETRY: And, of course, the amFIX blog is up and running. Join the live conversation. Go to CNN.com/amFIX.

ROBERTS: We begin the hour with the CNN security watch.

Dutch authorities are now questioning two men in connection with the potential terror plot. The two suspects flew from Chicago to Amsterdam. But their checked bags went on a different flight and wound up in Washington, packed with suspicious items. Among them a Pepto-Bismol bottle with cell phone strapped to it, other cell phones that were taped together and a bunch of watches that were also attached to it.

CHETRY: A lot of people are asking this morning: could this have been a dry run, perhaps testing airport security, laying the groundwork for a future terrorist attack?

Homeland security correspondent Jeanne Meserve has been following this story since it broke -- talking to sources within the U.S. government about what they think may have been going on here.

Good morning, Jeanne.

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Kiran and John, they just don't know yet what they are dealing with. The two men are identified as Ahmed Mohamed Nasser al-Soofi and Hezem Al- Murisi.

According to the U.S. law enforcement source, they are still in custody at Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam. And according to the Dutch prosecutors, they are still being questioned. A spokesman for those Dutch prosecutors would not say if they had been arrested or charged with any crime.

The fear being expressed by U.S. authorities is that they may have been testing aviation security. The Department of Homeland Security says in this statement, "Suspicious items were located in checked luggage. The items were not deemed to be dangerous in and of themselves."

According to U.S. law enforcement sources, those suspicious items included watches attached to shampoo bottles, cell phones attached to a medicine bottle, knives and box cutters. None of these items are prohibited in checked luggage but they raised concerns, both because of the London liquid explosives plot of 2006 and here bottles are involved; and because watches and cell phones can be used as triggering timing devices.

Now, Al-Soofi started his travel in Birmingham, flying to Chicago, according to a law enforcement sources. Al-Murisi travelled to Chicago from Memphis.

According to a law enforcement source, the men were both ticketed on a flight from Chicago to Washington-Dulles Airport and then Dubai and Yemen. The luggage went on that flight. But both men ended up on a different flight, that United Flight from Chicago to Amsterdam. And they were sitting near one another. Also on the flight, according to law enforcement sources, federal air marshals.

Now, a U.S. government official says at least one bag was pulled off of at Dulles and the items inside were being examined. A couple of concerns here: why would the men and their luggage on those different flights and what exactly were those items in the luggage? Were these men conducting a test run for some future terrorist plot?

Those are the questions and no answers as yet.

John and Kiran, back to you.

ROBERTS: So, Jeanne, the fact that the men were on a flight from Chicago to Amsterdam and meanwhile, their luggage was on a flight from Chicago to Washington and on to Dubai, was that a breach of security protocol?

MESERVE: I'm told by government officials this morning that it is not, because we travel a lot. We know that sometimes your bag ends up on a different flight than you do. Because there's 100 percent explosives screening at checked baggage, there's not a requirement on domestic flights that bags and individuals be matched.

Now, this bag, suspicious bag, at least one of them was pulled off at Dulles Airport. That is before the flight goes international. It is on international flights that you have to have 100 percent baggage match.

So, U.S. officials are say thing morning, no security protocols violated here, but still, they want to find out why the bags were on a different flight than these individuals were.

Back to you.

ROBERTS: All right. Jeanne Meserve in Washington this morning -- Jeanne, thanks.

CHETRY: Also developing this morning, Hurricane Earl gaining strength and possibly heading towards the Eastern Seaboard. They have a look at the radar now that reveals the storm is really a monster. It's a category 4 storm, Rob told us 16 miles in diameter and it's packing winds of 135 miles per hour.

Even if Earl doesn't make landfall, it certainly is going to kick up dangerous surf along the coast. Already, Earl has been lashing the Caribbean.

Here's a video from one off our iReporters. This is from St. Kitts. And it cut power to many on that island.

Also, this is what it looked like along northern Puerto Rico late yesterday. This iReporter says that supermarkets are out of stock. Gas stations are full of cars.

Now, Puerto Rico's governor told me last hour that 172,000 people were without power. They are getting set to tour the island in about two hours to see just how much damage actually happened.

ROBERTS: Meantime, Rob Marciano is tracking it all and is at the CNN hurricane headquarters in Atlanta.

The big question: just how close to Cape Hatteras and Long Island is Earl going to come, as it sweeps by the Eastern Seaboard?

ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yes, I wish I had a definitive answer for you there. I think everyone that lives wish we knew that ahead of time as well, to tell you exactly, a distinct possibility that could be one, if not two landfalls of this thing along the Eastern seaboard. And as we mentioned, that with winds of 135 miles an hour, gusts 160, you do want to mess with this bad boy.

There it is on the satellite picture, as we mentioned. It's a big one. Tropical storm force winds go out 200 miles. Hurricane force winds, 70 miles. Then behind that blob, behind that, is Fiona. We will talk about her later.

Meantime, Earl is the item up for bid here. And it's heading to the west-northwest, about 13 miles an hour. That means the forecast is going to bring it towards the U.S.

Here's the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center, keeps it a major storm status. And as it approaches the Carolina coastline, probably Thursday into Friday morning, and then the northeastern coastline, but if it nudges any farther west, that's been the overall trend the past day and a half, and we're talking about very, very serious situation.

As you mentioned, certainly going to see some big waves. Likely see wind and some rain, but just how close we get and what kind of direct hit we get, still yet to be seen.

Make your preparations, my friends, if you live on the outer banks of North Carolina.

A few more details on this storm and plus Fiona in about a half an hour -- John and Kiran.

ROBERTS: Rob, thanks so much.

In the Virgin Islands, there is significant amount of damage in the towns hit hard by Hurricane Earl. Trees are down, power out, major thoroughfares are blocked.

CHETRY: Yes, joining us on the phone right now is Mark Walters. He's the director of Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management.

Good morning. Thanks for being with us this morning, Mark.

We understand that you oversee St. Thomas, St. Croix, St. John, Water Island. What's the situation there?

MARK WALTERS, DIRECTOR, VIRGIN ISLANDS TERRITORIAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (via telephone): The situation is we actually, starting Sunday going through Monday, begin to experience tropical storm-force winds with gusts up to hurricane-force winds.

Since Friday, we've actually been partnering with our FEMA and federal partners. We've been conducting initially with the weather service.

As it is right now, we have teams that are out surveying the damage, to assess the extent of the damages here on the Virgin Islands. On Saturday, FEMA actually deployed an incident management assistant team here to the Virgin Islands and we immediately established a unified command structure with FEMA.

But in preparation for this storm, the governor also initiated civil emergency and protective measures such as closing of the nonessential government operations, closing of the schools, opening up emergency shelters, implementing a curfew and basically activating our emergency operation centers on a 24/7 basis.

The U.S. Coast Guard also closed all of our seaports today because of the conditions of the ground. Yesterday, we had to pull all of our electrical and public works crews off of the field for their safety. As of day break this morning, they are actually out conducting surveys and starting the restoration of power and cleaning up of the debris off of the roads.

ROBERTS: Mark, you've obviously seen your fair share of hurricanes over the years. How does this compare to other storms that have passed through?

WALTERS: Well, it doesn't compare to some of the major ones, starting from Hurricane Hugo and Hurricane Marilyn, Lenny, Burton (ph).

So, we have had some bigger disaster impacted territories. So, we were prepared. Even though we did experience sustain winds of tropical force -- tropical storm-force winds and gusts up to hurricane-force winds, it did still cause damages here throughout the territory. But preparedness-wise, it does not compare to some of the other major disasters that we've experienced recently.

CHETRY: You guys certainly know how to deal with it. But it looks like you do have a lot of work ahead of you. As I understand it, most of St. Thomas, St. Croix and St. John are without power?

WALTERS: That's correct. A lot of the lines were impacted by debris and trees that fell as a result of the gusts and the high winds. So, crews are out there and making those repairs as we speak.

ROBERTS: Mark Walters, director of the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management -- thanks for joining us this morning. And I know you are probably getting ready for Fiona, which is coming along right behind Earl. Thanks a lot.

CHETRY: Still ahead: President Obama is going to be marking the end of the official U.S. military mission in Iraq. He's giving a primetime speech tonight.

But how much is at stake for the president? What will he say and should he say when he addresses the nation about Iraq tonight?

We're going to be joined by senior political analyst, David Gergen -- up next.

(MUSIC)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(MUSIC)

ROBERTS: President Obama addresses the nation from the Oval Office tonight. He's going to take credit for keeping the campaign promise by ending the U.S. combat mission in Iraq.

CHETRY: But with the violence continuing in Baghdad and other areas, posing a threat to the 50,000 U.S. troops to remain there on a support role, how much has really been accomplished?

We're joined now by CNN's senior political analyst and former presidential adviser, David Gergen. He's in Cambridge, Massachusetts, this morning.

David, good to see you.

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to see you.

CHETRY: So, the president has a delicate balancing act. He's going to say, "Look, I kept my campaign promise to bring the troops home, to bring them out of Iraq." But a lot of critics say what he's leaving behind a violent Iraq, still no government formed.

So, how does he make the case tonight that this is the right time to leave?

GERGEN: Well, I think he makes the case that this is a war weary nation here in America. That he promised in his campaign that he would bring the troops home. And he's keeping that promise. And it's a glass half-full, or he would make the argument more than half- full.

You ask his critics out there, I'm among them, and say the government -- you know, they haven't formed a government since the elections in March. The violence is starting to go back up. And there are a lot of risks ahead.

But if you look at it overall, the president has a solid case to make. And if you gave him credit to President Bush on this, I think you would help himself. He's got a solid case to make since the surge, things have gotten better. And America is leaving behind what could become an important democratic friend, if not ally, in the Middle East. And that the world is safer without the man that we displaced there, Saddam Hussein.

ROBERTS: You know, David, we talked to Robert Gibbs about the surge strategy about 45 minutes ago. And he -- I asked him if he was going to give credit to President Bush for the surge. And he sort of wandered off on a talking point. But when it comes to the surge strategy, the President Obama, he opposed the surge strategy. But at the same time, so many people say it was the surge strategy that set the conditions for the political process to go forward. So how does he reconcile those two things?

DAVID GERGEN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, you can't. The truth is that the surge strategy is what turned this war around. Yes, there were concurrent developments in Iraq which helped. But I do think that -- do think the president will be gracious tonight and welcomed if he did acknowledge the surge strategy that he once opposed made a difference here. I think beyond that, though, he has to signal that he's in this -- America is not going to walk away from this part of the world.

We do, you know, Middle East peace talks starting this week are very important part of it. But he -- in addition to recognizing the valor of the troops, we do have a nation now that has been at war for nearly a decade. And two wars really. We have had some 2 million Americans engaged in the wars. We have lost over 5,000 Americans in these wars. We had some 40,000 wounded. That's a high price to pay. And I think that the president has to acknowledge that price and say we are going to hang in there. But, you know, the other thing people are looking for tonight is that they want some assurance of what he will be doing back there at home on jobs.

CHETRY: Right.

GERGEN: And I think this speech will be hugely helpful tonight if he has new ideas, fresh ideas, something which gives people a sense of hope that Washington is going to be doing more than watching on the sidelines here for the next few months.

CHETRY: You brought up a lot of points, one you touched on is the fact that we have been a nation at war for nearly a decade. Iraq has increasingly become a very unpopular war nearly 70 percent of people don't necessarily think that we accomplished what we were supposed to there. Or what we set out to do there. And then you take a look at numbers on Afghanistan. This is our most recent polling as well, 62 percent of Americans opposed the Afghan War. So how does the administration make the case that OK, we are winding down as promised in Iraq but Afghanistan's worth the fight. We are going to keep going there?

GERGEN: Kiran, you guys ask me tough questions. Here's are hard questions. I don't think there are easy answers. I think the issue is that -- the president has and the United States have large responsibilities in the world. And we need to see those through, the Middle East and the greater Middle East that includes Afghanistan's most combustible part of the world right now. And we are still heavily dependent upon oil from that region. It is in our national interests and the world's interests for us to remain involved in seeing these things through. If we walk away, we are going to concede territory and give the men back to al Queada back to the Taliban and Afghanistan. He's got to make that case. It's a case that American presidents made all through the Cold War and we hung in there. He has got to say the sacrifice is worth it but he has to believe in it.

It sometimes has not been clear that he believes in finishing the job and then both Afghanistan and Iraq. I think that he has to make those points quite clearly that he, Barack Obama is personally committed to seeing this through and he wants to get the combat ended but he also wants to ensure those places are stable as we pull back.

ROBERT: David you also mentioned the economy in there. And a noted Yale economist Robert Schiller the other day said that he believes that the United States can be headed for a double dip recession and that the third quarter that we are in could be the first part of the double dip if we do know into a double dip recession, what's the political impact for the president, particularly given the fact that it is an election in a couple of months?

GERGEN: Well, I do think that John we are heading into a period when on the international front that Iraq and Afghanistan will be our last efforts at nation building for a long, long time to come. We simply will not be able to afford these kind of efforts again. And that's going to make a difference in the world's security. But the fear of the second dip is growing.

And there's fear -- the risk of Japan-like lost decade is growing. I have heard estimates from some respected economists who advise the president from time to time at least 30 percent risk of though kind of things, especially the long decade. And we are going -- probably the most important news of the week is going to come on Friday when we have the new unemployment numbers.

ROBERTS: Yes.

GERGEN: Because to go to your point, just today on the political front, the Gallup Polling Organization announced that they now had -- the Republicans now have a ten-point generic lead on going into these elections, 51-41. People prefer Republicans over Democrats going into the elections. Gallup has been doing polling since 1942. This is the biggest single lead they have ever seen in generic polling. So it is a really important for this president to try to shore things up on the economic front even as he does on the international. But he has to do it with fresh ideas. I don't think he can cheerlead this economy back to health.

ROBERTS: Well we'll see what he says.

GERGEN: OK.

ROBERTS: David Gergen, great to talk to you this morning.

GERGEN: Thank you. CHETRY: As he said, people want reassurance. We will see if they get it tonight from the president. CNN will be carrying the speech, live. We will be watching it of course, 8:00 p.m. eastern. Followed by a breakdown of his remarks with Anderson Cooper, Wolf Blitzer, John King, Candy Crowley, Euritha Caria (ph). All of them will be talking about that as well. Right here on CNN. It all begins at 8:00 p.m. eastern.

ROBERTS: Show me the gold. Ron Paul says when it comes to Fort Knox, our gold repository, there may not be any gold there. He is calling for an audit. What's that about? We'll tell you, it's 21 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Twenty four minutes past the hour. Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. Time for "Minding Your Business," Congressman Ron Paul says it is a possibility that there's no gold in the vaults of Fort Knox or in the New York Federal Reserve Bank. So the Texas Republican says he plans to introduce legislation next year to force an audit of the gold's reserves the spokesman for the mint says the gold is there and is audited every year.

ROBERTS: Sounds like another Die Hard movie. She may have played an angel but it turns out Cameron Diaz is the most dangerous star when it comes to the internet. According to the folks at internet security giant McPhee one out of every ten search for Diaz is a malicious website. And once you are there your computer can become infected with a virus allowing hackers to steal your personal information.

CHETRY: That's strange. Why Cameron Diaz out of everyone?

Well this next story gives new meaning to the term watchdog. This is Bullet Kang, there she is. Oh gosh, bulldogs are hilarious. They really look like people sometimes. Well she certainly looks comfortable. Bullet has become an internet sensation. In fact, she has her own Facebook page where she regularly updates. She lives in Berkeley, California. She loves watching FAMILY GUY on her flat screen TV, her flat screen. And that's her own couch. If you listen closely, you can hear her breathing. I have a Boston terrier with the same type of muzzle. They snore like wouldn't believe.

ROBERTS: I thought that's what Winston Churchill would look like watching television.

(LAUGHTER)

ROBERTS: What would it be liked to trapped in a mine after an accident? It's about your worst nightmare. Gary Tuchman takes us to show us what it would be like, that's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: In Chile rescue crews have begun drilling a rescue shaft to reach those trapped miners. The 33 men have been in that cramped 500 square foot space for 26 days now. It is an almost unimaginable existence. And here in the United States, there's training for miners on how to survive when help is nowhere in sight. Here's Gary Tuchman has that story.

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): What would it be like to be trapped in a mine after an accident? We went to find out in what was a golden silver mine West of Denver, now used by the Colorado School of Mines for training.

(on camera): Being trapped alive is the ultimate nightmare but it is something all miners must train for. With the help of a mining experts here, we are about to did a very realistic simulation.

(voice-over): There has been an explosion in our mine. Smoke is billowing. We need to find the refuge chamber. A safe room. All U.S. Mines are supposed to have. We are led by Bob Ferroter, one of the country's top mine safety experts.

(on camera): I can't see a thing.

BOB FERROTER, TOP MINE SAFETY EXPERT: I know. It is very difficult. It is pretty big smokey fire, could be fires on an L.A --

TUCHMAN: You guys coming? Everyone back there?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: OK, I got the rear.

FERROTER: OK. Put your hand up against the rib, that will direct you where you are going, that will help you find your way. The smoke is getting -- not too much farther. We are almost there. OK. Here we are. Here is the refuge chamber. Everybody in. I'll be the last one. One, two, three, four, five. I will be the last one. OK we are coming in. OK good, if you bolt down that door. Clint, duct tape there and wrap around that.

TUCHMAN: Mines are supposed to have phones that work during emergencies.

BOB FERRITER, MINE SAFETY AND HEALTH EXPERT: We have a lot of thick smoke down here and heard an explosion. I'm not sure what happened. I have gotten myself and five other people in the chamber. OK. Any injuries? Twisted ankles? Cut fingers? Broken bones? OK. Everybody is good.

TUCHMAN: Without fresh air we may only five or six hours to live.

FERRITER: Now that we have the pressure going on and barely hear it in the background, we can stay here longer because that's compressed air being fed into the chamber. And that will be as fresh air as long as the compressor is on. She we can probably stay in here several days.

TUCHMAN: One of people in the chamber with us is a University of Denver psychologist who had explained to us beforehand that the miners in Chile are going through unchartered psychological territory. KIM GORGENS, PSYCHOLOGIST, UNIVERSITY OF DENVER: Their communication with their families and with the ground team is going to keep their psychological functioning going.

TUCHMAN: When we were done, I asked her this.

TUCHMAN (on camera): What do you think would happen to you if you were stuck in here for days?

GORGENS: Boy, this is freakish. When you are thinking about how many cubic tons of rock are between you and the sunlight, I would unravel within inside of a few minutes.

TUCHMAN: As we walk out of the mine we think about the miners in Chile who are safe for now, but have to think about a rescue not in terms of minutes, hours or days, but in weeks or months.

Gary Tuchman, CNN, Idaho Springs, Colorado.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHETRY: That's just a small taste of what it must be like. They talk about three to four months to drill the relief tunnel.

ROBERTS: I can't imagine.

CHETRY: In fact, as we did try to talk to some of the miners who have been in these situations, some of their family members say they are still suffering from post traumatic stress after going through that.

ROBERTS: You would have to. That would be a life-changing experience. No question.

CHETRY: Well, it's 32 minutes past the hour now. A look at the other top stories this morning.

Bracing for hurricane Earl up and down the east coast. Communities are being told to get ready for the possibility of this hurricane hitting. Right now it is a category four storm, packing winds of 135 miles per hour. Forecasters say the storm could approach the North Carolina coast by Thursday night.

Already the storm took a swipe at Puerto Rico, leaving flooding and 100,000-plus people without power.

ROBERTS: Two men are being questioned by authorities in the Netherlands today. American officials suspect Ahmed Mohamed Nasser al-Soofi and Hezem al-Murisi may have been trying to test security at U.S. airports. While they flew to Amsterdam from Chicago their checked bags wound up in Washington.

Officials say the luggage contained suspicious items, including cell phones and watches that were attached to plastic bottles as well as knives and box cutters. CHETRY: In a rare interview, former Cuban leader Fidel Castro describing the details of the health scare that drove him from office four years ago. Castro says he was "at death's door and didn't want to live." He tells a Mexican newspaper he came back from all of that and the 84-year-old is making speeches and since appeared on television.

ROBERTS: There are few women in America that understand the cost of war and handle it with more Grace than Sheila Patton. Sheila is an army mom whose son was killed in Iraq this spring. She is an army wife with a husband serving in Afghanistan.

CHETRY: Barbara Starr is in Ft. Campbell, Kentucky, this morning. Obviously, Sheila, a very strong woman. What can she tell you about how she makes it through losing a child and also knowing her husband is also at risk?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: John, Kiran, Good morning. We are here at the home of the 101st airborne division.

Like so many military units, like the Patton family, suffering through and really struggling through a number of combat tours in the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, but Sheila Patton is an army wife and mother, as you say, that's determined to make it through.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SHEILA PATTON, MOTHER OF SOLDIER KILLED IN IRAQ: I put it together on the anniversary of his death.

STARR: Sheila Patton shows us a book of tributes to her son, Army Ranger Staff Sergeant James "Jimmy" Patton -- photos, memories, and letters from condolence.

STARR (on camera): Your first is a letter from the president of the United States.

PATTON: Yes.

STARR: It is important.

PATTON: Yes, it is. It is very important.

STARR (voice-over): A home of memories. Jimmy was killed in northern Iraq in April. That alone a tragedy.

But there is more for this mother of three. Her husband, Gregory Patted only, Jimmy's dad, is serving in eastern Afghanistan. When Jimmy was killed, his father flew to Iraq, picked up his son's body, and brought it home.

This week the U.S. combat mission in Iraq officially ends. But the emotional cost of the war in Iraq for thousands of military families like the Pattons does not.

STARR (on camera): For your family, which has made the ultimate sacrifice --

PATTON: Yes.

STARR: -- how long will Iraq be with your family?

PATTON: Forever.

STARR (voice-over): Patton has long counseled other army wives and mothers about the importance of being resilient, now more important than ever before.

PATTON: To be honest with you, I think that's why I'm doing this interview. I think that I have something to share.

STARR: Patton says many army wives and mothers are now sisters in arms, the backbone of military families.

PATTON: I have a voice and I'm willing to share my voice. I think with Jimmy's death I have been given a mission, and that mission is to try to help other families be resilient. You have to find humor and laughter and you have to be positive to get through it, otherwise you are miserable and I'm depressed and you can't take care of your children and cap take care of yourself and you can't do your job. So you have to have a positive attitude.

STARR: Patton still feels Jimmy's presence in the quiet woods behind the house. Jimmy, she says, died the way he wanted to -- in combat with his buddies in a war likely to be part of the American experience for years to come.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

STARR: Sheila doesn't expect her husband to come home from Afghanistan until January at the earliest. Here at Ft. Campbell, even with the president's speech upcoming about the end of combat for U.S. troops, there are more troops at Ft. Campbell getting ready to deploy to Iraq. John, Kiran.

CHETRY: All right, that 50,000 strong forces still going to be there. And that's where they are coming from. Very good story this morning, Barbara. Thank you.

You mentioned the president's speech. He will be addressing the nation from the Oval Office tonight about the end of the combat mission in Iraq. CNN's coverage begins tonight at 7:00 eastern with "JOHN KING USA." At 10:00, President Obama speaks live. That's followed at 9:00 by Larry King who will be live with reaction and analysis.

ROBERTS: Getting desperate in Pakistan. The situation there is dire, fighting for food and stealing water. Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta shows us exactly how bad it is. He is live in Pakistan, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Live pictures right now of Air Force One. Just missed the president. He is pretty fast. He ran right up the stairs. He's on his way to Ft. Bliss, Texas, today, where he's going to be meeting -- speaking with troops there ahead of the big speech about the end of combat operations tonight, 8:00 p.m.

Meanwhile, in Pakistan this morning, the desperation is rising about as fast as the flood waters were. They're now starting to recede. But still food and water are painfully scarce.

ROBERTS: And when relief does arrive, it is not reaching the people who need it most. Our Chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta is in Pakistan in Karachi this morning. Sanjay, for the people of Pakistan, it is all about being able to survive, all about being able to get the supplies.

SR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: It really is. Under the best of circumstances, this is a very logistically challenged place. Trying to get aid here just doesn't always work. Some things are inexplicable and will break your heart. We decided to take a look at when aid works and why it doesn't.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GUPTA: Did you ever wonder what desperation looks like? This is it. Police are coming in to break up this demonstration. What happened here was locals basically set the roadblock over here. As soon as an aid truck would come in, they would basically storm that aid truck and try to steal as many supplies as they could.

They are desperate and quick to tell you about it. It wasn't so much anger but bitter frustration and hopelessness, thousands of displaced people feeling forgotten and ignored.

Here's how it is supposed to work. A much more organized camp, for example. A family over here that have tents and they can withstand a lot of the rain coming. Look inside the tent over here. You see water jugs and cooking oil, cooking utensils.

Problem is that you won't find many camps like this one. Most look like this -- thousands of families, low on tents, and low on food, thick with desperation.

One of the really difficult situations here is that there's no mechanism of distributing the aid. It is just awful to think about and people describe it to us, they say it is embarrassing to be treated like animals.

Where is all the aid going? You see trucks with aid in and it doesn't seem to be getting to people that need it the most. We followed this aid truck in from a distance, the first sign of hope these people felt in weeks.

But what was about to happen was outrageous. First government rangers with big sticks organized and women and children here, men over there, all of them waiting in the hot sun.

This is hard to believe. These people have been waiting for some time for food, women and children over here and men and children over here. The truck was here with aid in it, pulled into the gas station and now leaving.

There was no explanation for this. More importantly, all these people are still hungry and still thirsty. This is incredibly heartbreaking. People are waiting for quite a while for that truck, thinking they were going to get aid and received nothing.

Commander Faisal Shah has the impossible task of trying to feed 20 million people.

GUPTA (on camera): Have you been out to some of these camps outside of here and talked to the people? Have you actually heard from them? I hear what you are saying, but when I talk to them, I hear something entirely else.

COMMANDER FAISAL SHAH, PAKISTAN NAVY MARINE CORPS: People are desperate. There are people that have been very fed. I believe most of them are being fed regularly.

GUPTA (voice-over): I saw a different story in the dozen refugee camps I visited. There's no regular meals here. Desperation mounts.

They're basically going in and trying to get what they can get. A quick idea what can happen to some of the most precious commodities needed when something like this happens. There was just a riot out here, antibiotics on the ground shattered. Desperation has its consequences. In this case, no one benefited.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GUPTA: Even if some of the supplies to get into the country. simply getting them distributed and getting them to the right people, the people that need them the most, is challenging for some of the reasons we just saw there.

And again, it's just -- it's heartbreaking to see some of these things that got into the country and got into the cities that were -- that were needing it and -- and sort ended up on the ground, shattered bottles like the ones you saw there.

We are in a hospital now. (AUDIO GAP) so many people are sick as a result of what's been happening here, the infectious diseases. This is ongoing as I've said before, 20 million people around this country displaced. And the disease that is coming now is just starting to happen as well.

ROBERTS: So --so how long do they have Sanjay before a dire situation becomes absolutely desperate?

GUPTA: Well, you know, it's -- if you have a lot of these camps and once you start to see these infectious diseases crop up because people are living in such close quarters, it can spread very, very quickly.

On top of that you have people who are really living on the edge. They don't have basic supplies to help boost their immune systems to help them fight off these infections. And this is just one clinic. I mean, the scope of this thing is so hard to describe. You have hundreds of thousands of people in these small areas. This is the hospital they will come to. It's just a couple of hundred beds to serve these patients.

So you eventually are going to take some of these supplies, hydration, dehydration salts, antibiotics if necessary, out to the refugee camps and try and take care of people there along with supplies. But it's -- it's a long time coming. It's going to be necessary for some time to come.

CHETRY: It's such a tough situation. What rescue workers were afraid of in trying to prevent as well, the infectious disease because of -- so many people in close quarters as you said.

Sanjay, great reporting. Thanks so much.

Also ahead, we're tracking hurricane Earl. It's getting stronger now, it's a Category 4. Meantime, there's tropical storm Fiona forming not far behind.

Rob Marciano has more on the predictions and what the models tell us about where Earl is headed.

Forty-seven minutes past the hour.

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MARCIANO: Welcome back to The Most News in the Morning. I'm Rob Marciano in the CNN Severe Weather Center.

Here is the latest on Hurricane Earl, a Category-4, strength and winds of 135 miles an hour. Hurricane hunter (ph) aircraft are in there at the moment. And they just recently sent back a message indicating that the pressure may have come up just a little bit and you can see the eye has gotten a little shrouded as far as cloud cover is concerned.

We'll see if the next advisory weakens this. But we don't expect it to weaken dramatically here over the next day or two. It's got some pretty warm waters. It's heading into a little bit of dry air. But the forecast is for it to remain a major hurricane as it makes a pass towards the U.S. coastline.

Specifically, the Outer Banks of North Carolina which sticks out like a sore thumb this time of year, Friday early into Friday afternoon, as it makes its turn off towards the north and east, a Category 2 storm as it makes a pass at the New England coastline.

But notice the shaded area; that has a tone of uncertainty. That's a margin of error that the National Hurricane Center allows and that's what you need to be aware of. It includes the Delmarva and includes Philadelphia and New York City, Long Islands, and these are all areas that could be affected, if not directly hit, by this major hurricane. And by the way, behind it is Fiona. This was named quickly yesterday, a tropical storm will kind of follow on the heels of Hurricane Earl which is kind of acting as a blocking back. What it does once Earl moves out of the picture that remains to be seen, it may hang out, it may strengthen. We'll have to watch this very, very carefully, that's for sure.

It's hot across the northeast. This front, some thunderstorms across the Midwest, this is going to be the key to kick Earl out to sea. It slows down and Earl gets closer. It speeds up, it's our saving grace. We'll be watching it carefully.

That's a quick check on weather. AMERICAN MORNING is coming right back.

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CHETRY: Fifty-three minutes past the hour right now. Welcome back to The Most News in the Morning.

Time you're your "A.M. House Calls" stories about your health, a third of all pregnant women in the U.S. now undergo a caesarean section when it is time to deliver. Now that's double the rate that we saw just 15 years ago. And the women having c-sections are not just mothers who had a prior C-section. A third of them are actually new moms, according to a study in the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

So why the rise in the number of C-sections? Well, joining us to talk more about the study is Dr. Katherine Laughon. She co-authored the study. She is an Ob-gyn and also a post doctoral fellow at the National Institute of Health and Human Development.

Thanks for being with us today, Dr. Laughon.

DR. KATHERINE LAUGHON, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF HEALTH AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT: Thank you. Good morning.

CHETRY: First of all when we hear more c-sections and -- as women debate it, why is it better to have a vaginal birth? Why is there a cause for concern when we see the number of C-sections rising?

LAUGHON: Well, before we begin, I do want to acknowledge Dr. Gene Zaun (ph) who is the senior investigator and conducted the study and I've had the privilege to work with.

And that's a good question. So Caesarean section is a common procedure. And we do consider it a safe procedure. But it does have increased risk. It is a major abdominal surgery, there's an increased risk of infection for the mom, bleeding. There's always the chance that we could damage structures outside the uterus during the operation.

For the baby, when the main problem after babies are born, from a C-section, is respiratory complications or breathing troubles. When they go through the birth canal, that fluid that is in the lungs got squeezed out and after a Caesarean section sometimes that's a little bit more difficult.

CHETRY: I understand. It is also interesting when you take a look at studies. You say that half of the C-sections that took place were after labor started, that they were due to, quote, failure to progress where doctors don't think the labor's moving along fast enough.

This happened to me, in fact, with my first baby. We had been there for hours and hours. They felt that I wasn't moving along fast enough and they actually recommended a C-section which I said to them please, just give me more time and I ended up having a natural birth.

But is the concern that doctors are not willing to wait long enough as you found in the study? In some cases women haven't even dilated to 6 centimeters.

LAUGHON: Well, I think that the study actually presents some new findings. So traditionally in older studies, we did think that labor progressed more quickly. And what we -- found is that we thought that women went into the active phase of labor and started progressing more quickly around when the cervix was dilated four centimeters.

In this new study what we found is actually, that transition between the slower part of labor and active part of labor doesn't have happen until -- in some women up to six centimeters. You are right. We did find that it might be possible as long as the mom's health and baby's health is doing well during labor, that we might be able to let women labor longer and that could potentially decrease the Caesarean section rate.

CHETRY: Here's another thing that really stuck out to me which is that women whose labor was induced, meaning that they were not -- did not go into labor themselves, you know, their water didn't break, they didn't start having labor contractions, they actually had to be induced at a hospital. They have a 50 percent higher chance of eventually needing a C-section.

This is interesting because nowadays people think nothing of getting induced. Oh, you know, it is my due date, my doctor's schedule, he will be there, I'm going to be there, let's get an induction. Is that something that should give women pause?

LAUGHON: I think it does. I think you're exactly right. We are just -- the induction in our study, the women had about a 50 percent increased risk of a Caesarean section. Now a lot of these C-sections were performed in the early part of labor.

So what we don't know is if perhaps impatience on either the woman or the physician's part could have led to the increase in C- section. So it may just be -- it may not be induction itself. It may just be allowing women to really get the chance to get into labor.

CHETRY: And bottom line, the medical community has gone back and forth on this. If had you a C-section and you have a prior pregnancy, I mean a pregnancy subsequent to that, can you try to have a natural birth?

LAUGHON: So the American college of Obstetrics and Gynecology has released a practice bulletin just this month. And the National Institute of Health just recently had a consensus statement. And our findings agree with both of the societies. Not all women are candidates for what we call a VBAC or a vaginal birth after Caesarean section. But probably, you know, 60 percent to 80 percent of women will have a successful VBAC. So I would say for women, they should talk to their doctor and see if they are a candidate.

CHETRY: All right. Well, Dr. Katherine Laughon, great information today. Thanks so much for joining us.

LAUGHON: Thank you.

CHETRY: All right. We are going take a quick break.

Fifty-seven minutes past the hour.

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ROBERTS: Continue the conversation on today's stories; go to our blog at CNN.com/amfix. Awfully good to have you with us today. We'll see you again tomorrow.

CHETRY: Meantime, the news continues, "CNN NEWSROOM" with Kyra Phillips starts right now. Good morning Kyra.