Return to Transcripts main page

American Morning

The Transfer of Power; From One Warzone to Another; Hurricane Earl Threatens East Coast

Aired September 01, 2010 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Eight o'clock here on the East Coast and welcome. It's Wednesday, September 1st. Glad you're with us on this AMERICAN MORNING. I'm Kiran Chetry.

ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Ali Velshi. Let's take a look at live pictures now. We are moments away from a handover ceremony where the United States will hand power in Iraq, security in Iraq, to the Iraqi government. This is at the Al Faw Palace, which was the former hunting lodge of Saddam Hussein. Vice President Biden will be there. He is going to hand over authority in Iraq to the Iraqis today.

CHETRY: And there's going to be a bit of pomp and circumstance marking this momentous occasion. We have been getting reaction and feedback from many different areas that -- of the country and of the world actually. And when you hear from Chris Lawrence who is still with the 50,000 troops that will be in a more advisory role, they don't see that much of a difference in what their day-to-day operations are going to be like.

However, at the same time, symbolically, I mean, this is it. Iraq is officially in charge. It's been a sovereign nation. But now, the future of the political landscape of that country, as well as the safety and security, largely in the hands of the Iraqi.

VELSHI: The president calls it the end of combat operations. Some people are calling it the end of the war. But if it's the end of the war, it's a very unusual war where you leave with 50,000 of your troops left behind. We described them as being an assist and -- an aid and assist role to the Iraqis.

But these are soldiers. These are armed soldiers who will remain in harm's way. What does this mean? And is the symbolism enough to really register a change in Iraq, will this be the thing that is needed for Iraq to take control of their own future? And for the politicians in Iraq to take control of their own future? That's part of what we're going to look into now this morning.

CHETRY: Yes. We want to let you know that we are monitoring all of this and we have a great team assembled to give us reaction and insight on this. But there are a lot of other stories going on as well today.

VELSHI: Yes. One of them is Hurricane Earl, which is bracing to at least skirt the North Carolina/Virginia border, some heavy weather coming in. The storm is still rolling. And about 125 miles an hour, making it a category three hurricane. But we don't know where it's going.

And once it does get near North Carolina and Virginia, what does it do next? Part of the cone of uncertainty includes all of the upper East Coast. Rob Marciano is tracking the storm from Virginia for us.

CHETRY: We're also covering politics this morning and a big upset developing news overnight. Senator Lisa Murkowski conceding the Republican primary race to Joe Miller, a political unknown, a lawyer from Fairbanks, Alaska, who had the backing and support of the Tea Party. This makes candidate number five for the Tea Party movement that could be headed to the Senate as we look to the general election.

VELSHI: And the amFIX blog is up and running. We love when you give us comments. So, join the conversation right now. Just go to CNN.com/amFIX.

We begin with what we were just talking about at the top of the hour -- a day that is more than seven years in the making. The war in Iraq, combat operations in Iraq is over. Does that mean the war is over?

A ceremony, you're looking at it now. These are live pictures officially transferring command from the U.S. military to Iraqi soldiers. It is set to start at Camp Victory in Baghdad at any moment.

CHETRY: And as we've been talking about even though the war is now over ostensibly, 50,000 U.S. soldiers are staying in Iraq until the end of the year. All of this part of the Pentagon's next mission in Iraq. It's dubbed Operation New Dawn. And during his prime time Oval Office address last night, President Obama gave credit both to U.S. forces as well as the Iraqi people.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Because of our troops and civilians, and because of the resilience of the Iraqi people, Iraq has the opportunity to embrace a new destiny, even though many challenges remain. So, tonight, I am announcing that the American combat mission in Iraq has ended. Operation Iraqi Freedom is over and the Iraqi people now have lead responsibility for the security of their country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: So, during this handover ceremony that we're going to be taking live in just a few moments, we're expecting to hear from Vice President Joe Biden, as well as Defense Chief Robert Gates, and the man taking over command of Operation New Dawn, the newly-promoted general, Lloyd Austin.

VELSHI: Chris Lawrence is on the ground in the Iraqi capital. He joins us now with the latest from Camp Victory. Chris, this is a question we have got that -- with -- that I think all Americans and people around the world want to know: what changes after this handover ceremony?

CHRIS LAWRENCE, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Ali, it's partly just ceremonial, but it's also significant as well. Ceremonial in the sense that the new mission of assisting, training, being in the background, U.S. troops have been doing that for several months now. They haven't been out on active combat ops in quite a while.

Now, that doesn't mean that this day doesn't mean a lot. You know, earlier today, here in Iraq, Defense Secretary Robert Gates was asked -- does this mean we are still at war here? And he said no. We are not.

Simple statement. But it means a lot to a lot of the troops I have been speaking with over the past few days, a few of them on their fourth deployment here. That means over the last seven years, they have spent the majority of their lives here in Iraq. They've seen a lot of friends, fellow soldiers, fellow marines, killed or wounded here. They are very, very invested in what happens to Iraq. So, yes, for them, in that context, today is very significant.

CHETRY: You know, we are talking about the level troops right now, 50,000 troops. They are left there. And, you know, there are questions about exactly what their role is even though we know what it is on paper. What's happening at the ground level and how significant is the danger they are still potentially in?

LAWRENCE: Good question, Kiran. Think of it like this, in the past, it was the U.S. force, American troops rolling out of the wire, fully loaded, going into compounds, kicking down doors, conducting active raids. Now -- and at that point, the Iraqis were sort of in the background. Now, everything has been flip-flopped.

So, it's the Iraqis planning these raids. It's the Iraqis leading these missions. The Americans are still there, but they are more coaching, advising. So, say, an Iraqi troop decides to go raid a particular compound, they ask the Americans to provide air support. Americans would roll out helicopter support and probably two to three American Humvees who would help coordinate both the air support and give them certain technology like real-time video so that the Iraqi commander could see exactly what's happening with his troops and the Americans could advise as the mission is taking place.

VELSHI: Chris, thanks very much. We will, of course, be checking back in with you shortly and we'll be going live to that event as it gets under way -- Chris Lawrence at Camp Victory in Baghdad.

Well, history is being made this morning in Baghdad. Defense Secretary Gates, Vice President Biden -- they are attending the formal change of command ceremony that you are looking at right there in Iraq.

CHETRY: Yes. This live event is now taking place, marking the official end of the America's combat mission in Iraq. And as we wait for the ceremony to get underway, we want to bring in our expert panel, General George Joulwan, the former NATO supreme allied commander; as well as Bobby Ghosh, the deputy international editor at "TIME" magazine; and also from Washington, Kenneth Pollack, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution.

Great to have all of you with us this morning.

I want to start with you, General, because there are a lot of questions being asked right now. What exactly this handover means for the soldiers and the commanders of U.S. forces that are still in Iraq?

GEN. GEORGE JOULWAN, FMR. NATO SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER: Well, this has been three years in the making. I visited there on 2007 for an assessment. So, we've been building towards this for three years.

The challenge is -- I'm little concerned about the -- the combat mission is over. I am afraid that what happens when the first American soldier gets killed in a week or two weeks, it's still a war zone. And we have to understand that there's still dangers out there that have to happen.

But the Iraqis now are in the lead. We are more in a supporting role. But the Iraqis now will take the lead. And that's been transferred from where we were before.

So, I think that you're going to see more of an Iraqi face on this. But it's going to be a very difficult period, but the American troops are still in a war zone.

VELSHI: Ken Pollack, I want to ask you, at this point while the Iraqi military is taking over, there's a disproportionate wait being put on Iraqi politicians to take over. A lot of Iraqis that our reporters have spoken on the street are saying, where is our government? We had an election and they haven't been able to form a government, a new government in Iraq.

Would it help if the Iraqis would get on with forming a government and actually taking on the responsibility of governing? Would that start to alleviate the violence that their forces and American troops are going to be facing?

KENNETH POLLACK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTE: Yes, Ali, I think put your finger on the critical issue moving forward, which is the fact that right now, Iraq is locked in a political impasse. And they can't get out of it.

This is something the Obama administration is trying very much to avoid. One of the reasons they set this transition in August with the Iraqi election schedule for the prior March is the expectation by this point in time, Iraq would actually have a government. And, obviously, it's very problematic.

VELSHI: Ken, I'm just going to interrupt you for a second. We're just going to take this live now.

The official party is walking in. You can see U.S. troops now, U.S. officers saluting. And we are about to watch the party enter the hall at Camp Victory which, by the way, is where this is going to take -- this handover is going to take place.

Representing the United States: Vice President Joe Biden, who's really been at the forefront of the issues confronting Iraq. He is going to be there handing over authority to the Iraqis this morning, to Iraqi forces. There will be a new general taking over as well.

Let's listen in.

(BEGIN COVERAGE)

(MUSIC PLAYING)

ANNOUNCER: Ladies and gentlemen, please remain standing for the posting of the colors, the national anthems of Iraq and United States, an invocation by United States Forces-Iraq command chaplain, Colonel Michael T. Lembke.

(NATIONAL ANTHEM OF IRAQ)

(THE STAR-SPANGLED BANNER)

CHETRY: All right. So, again, we are dipping in and out of the ceremony here as we are about to hear an invocation from Colonel Lembke.

But I want to ask Bobby Ghosh, who spent five years in Baghdad covering the story as "TIME's" bureau chief, a little bit of a reality check for us. What is being left behind? As this official handover takes place, what shape is Iraq in now?

BOBBY GHOSH, DEPUTY INTERNATIONAL EDITOR, "TIME": Iraq is a lot better than it was two, three years ago when it was in the middle of a sectarian internecine war. But things have gotten considerably worse in the last few months. Just last week, the -- al Qaeda launched simultaneously bombing operations in 13 different Iraqi cities -- simultaneously one day.

They have never done that in seven years, which would suggest to me that they are mounting a surge of their own. They are announcing to the Iraqi people Americans may be leaving. We are still here. And we can hit you where we want and when we want. So it is -- it is a sobering real check for both the troops who are leaving, troops who have been left behind but most of all to the Iraqi.

CHETRY: And General Joulwan, along those lines, a lot of people said that the fact that we were there is what drew out a lot of insurgents. I mean who is the target now? If U.S. Troops are taking a back seat and our presence is receding, what's the target?

GENERAL GEORGE JOULWAN, FMR. NATO SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER: Well, I think the targets are going to be what they have been. That -- the police, the Iraqi police, and military, the recruiting stations, this is a very deliberate attempt to get anything that can bring stability in Iraq to target them. And I believe that Americans will still be targeted, they will be less visible but IEDs, snipers, all of that, still is a threat to the Americans. But the Iraqis now have got to take the lead and that is going to be the -- the -- issue, can they succeed. And I -- getting back to the -- I'm the military guy. But it is the political side that is extremely important.

VELSHI: And you remember from day one of the invasion into Iraq, I'm going ask Ken Pollack this, too. Day one, there was a question about the exit strategy, have we learned -- what have we learned from this thing about exit strategies that they have to be political? And that maybe nation building exercises are a little big for us to chew off sometimes?

KENNETH POLLACK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Yes, well, I think that's the critical issue here. The Bush administration went into the war in Iraq, believing the hard part was the invasion. What came after was ultimately going to be easy. We'd be able to turn it over to a bunch of Iraqis, perhaps off Michelob (ph). We could leave. And, of course, that was nonsense at the time. And I think anybody knew anything about Iraq and knew anything about the operations knew it was nonsense at the time.

But we have now had seven years of very painful experience. Making it clear that if you are going to take on this kind of an operation, the hard part is really the reconstruction. And if you are not ready to do the reconstruction, and do it right, and invest everything that's necessary, you shouldn't do the invasion at all.

VELSHI: And general, you are nodding your head.

JOULWAN: Absolutely. And have been through a few of these. And it is -- not just the initial entry or war fight. It is what happens with civil agencies, NGOs, how to bring them in, how to build capacity, we did not plan for that. The initial part of this war. That was a mistake.

And that's what is trying to be corrected now and if we are going to have success in this next phase, it is those agencies, civil agencies, state department, that build capacity in the government, going to determine whether at the end of all of this, not the exit strategy, but the end state whether that's successful.

VELSHI: Let's tune in for the vice president. He is just starting to speak.

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

JOSEPH BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can't but help think of the irony that we are here today, occupying a palace for a noble reason that was once occupied by Saddam Hussein. Secretary Gates, Admiral Mullen, General Maddux, General Austin, Ambassador Jeffrey, our distinguished and honored Iraqi leaders and military, it is an honor to be with you today. It is an honor to be joined by such a distinguished group of Americans and Iraqi commanders and civilian leaders. Bound together, I might add, by -- as a nation, we are now bound together as well. By years of shared struggle and significant sacrifice.

In the predawn hours of March 20, 2003, columns of coalition troops set off across the desert and marsh lands from Kuwait en route to Baghdad. Last week, after seven-and-a-half years, that tested our metal like no conflict in recent American history, the last of our combat units followed that same dusty highway out of Iraq on their way home.

As President Obama declared in the Oval office last night, United States has now ended our combat mission in Iraq. And Iraqi troops are taking lead responsibility for their country's security. We have kept a promise, a promise made to the American people and to the people of Iraq by drawing down our forces to roughly 50,000. And we are on track through all of our troops by the end of next year according to the agreement signed by President Bush made with the Iraqi government. Operation Iraqi Freedom is over.

But American engagement with Iraq will continue, with the mission that begins today Operation New Dawn. As the name suggests, this ceremony not only marked the change of command but the start of a different chapter in the relationship with Iraq.

Our remaining troops, I might add, as combat ready, if need be, as any in our military will advise and assist Iraqi forces, support, partner, counter terrorism operations and protect our military and civilian personnel as well as our infrastructure. We are ramping up our civilian and diplomatic efforts, to strengthen and Iraqi sovereignty and stability, and self-reliance at the very time we are drawing down combat forces. Our goal, our goal is not just a physically secure Iraq but an economically prosperous and stable one as well.

With our Iraqi partners, our hope is to be able to enhance the ties of trade in commerce, increase our cultural and educational exchanges, open consulates in Basra, all to ensure that our engagements spans the breadth and length of this country. Our diplomats, our diplomats, will you important Iraq's efforts to build strong ties with their neighbors in the wider world while working through the remaining obligations at the United Nations.

Here in Baghdad, those efforts will be led by an outstanding Ambassador Jim Jeffrey, who may be new to this particular job but is certainly not new to the region nor to this country. His knowledge and commitment run deep. They go back to his earlier service in the Bush administration as a deputy national security adviser and, as well as, at point the DCM right here in Baghdad.

He is backed by an extraordinary team of Foreign Service Professionals and civilian experts who are moving to the forefront of our effort now. They have always been engaged, but now they are moving to the forefront. People like Aaron Eddie, a former peace corps volunteer in Ecuador, who now serves outside the wire, as a public diplomacy officer on a regional reconstruction -- provincial reconstruction team in Kirkuk, or Madeleine Kiko - excuse me, Chico, who became an American citizen after her family fled Iraq three decades ago and has now chosen to return in 2008 to work with the Ministry of Justice here in Iraq on property rights and rule of law. Or Dave Butsner, a 27- year veteran of the Oregon Police force, who has since then trained law enforcement officers in Kosovo, Jordan, and Yemen. And who now advises the Iraqi interior minister.

Along with our military and diplomats and civilians in Iraq, we have born -- they have borne the burden of lengthy deployments, like you in the military, missing anniversaries, and holidays, births of children, and the loss of loved ones. This change of mission to state the obvious, would never have been possible without the resolve and tremendous sacrifice and competence of our military, the finest of Iraqi friends will forgive us, the finest fighting force in the world, and I would argue, the finest fighting force that ever has existed. And I do not believe that as hyperbole.

That's in large part because it has been led by such a significant group of men and women over the last two decades. And I want to thank Secretary Gates for his unique willingness to serve two presidents of different parties with differing views, a testimony to Bob's patriotism, his commitment to service, and above all, his determination to see this effort through. He deserves your applause.

(APPLAUSE)

BIDEN: You'll be excuse the personal reference as we say in the Senate, this is one good man, one good man. We also have been blessed by the wisdom and steady hand, Admiral Mike Mullen. And the leadership of General David Petraeus, who I might add, is still serving this country in a way that is beyond what we should ask of anyone.

I shouldn't joke about this. But I visited him down in Florida, and before he headed off, Bob and he said just as I was getting -- finally getting to live like the Air Force, you are asking me to move. It was a lovely place. And by the way, we owe his wife and family as well. And also by General Jim Maddox, who has taken his command.

You know, and on -- his last day of his command, I would like to especially thank General Ray Odierno. This man is not only a warrior but diplomat in the best American tradition. I want to thank him for his I can exceptional -- and I'm not exaggerating -- his exceptional service for more than four years leading forces here and working closely with Iraqi political leaders, many of them sitting here today. And I think they would all acknowledge they have absolute, complete faith and trust in this man.

General, four years and five months is an extraordinary sacrifice for both you and your family. And I can only imagine, as a matter of fact I know, how joyous your homecoming will be, and you richly deserve it. And by the way, you owe Linden big, really, really big. And I would be remiss if I did not mention the sacrifices that the general has made like many of you. I would be remiss if I did not recognize his son, Captain Tony Odierno who made great sacrifice here in Iraq on behalf of his country. He was awarded the Purple Heart, and the Bronze Star, V for valor. Now he works for the New York Yankees, and I imagine you are getting home to see a couple of games, I imagine.

I'm confident as well that General Austin, who has already served valiantly in Iraq and beyond, is going to continue this proud legacy. We are extremely fortunate to have you take command, General, and I look forward to working with you and I know, again, you know many of the Iraqi political leaders here and their commanding generals and this is going to be a seamless transition.

Our fighting men and women were given a mission in Iraq that was as complicated as any in our history. An assignment that proved as Auschwitz was taught, war is the realm of uncertainty. Troops steeped in military doctrine with were asked to deal with challenges ranging from electricity to unemployment, currency exchange to trash collection. A high speed invasion that topped a tyrant became a grinding struggle against violent extremist. Empty roads became death traps. Suicide became a devastating weapon. Retrying Split-second decisions by young American military women and men that could save a life of a comrade or shed the blood of innocent.

And enemies like al Qaeda in Iraq waged unspeakable violence against Iraqi civilians in an attempt to foster hatred and communities that worship the exact same god. Thus far, they have failed. The Iraqi people to their great credit have rejected the ugly face of violence and cast their lot, as well as, their ballots for a better future.

And so today while the threat, a tragic reality, of further bloodshed remains, violence has reached the lowest point since 2003 when we arrived here, shortly after we arrived here. And a great deal of credit goes to the Iraqi security force for more than 650,000 strong, including highly trained special operation forces. Who are increasingly ready to defend their fellow citizens.

In recent months, the Iraqi military secured an election, killed or captured most of al Qaeda in Iraq, most of their leaders, and made significant in-roads against other terrorist groups. Because of their competence, we have over the past year -- and it has been over the past year, the general will tell you and you all know -- been able to transfer thousands of square miles of territory and hundreds of bases to Iraqi control.Perhaps the most important develop many of all is in the aftermath of a second national election, Iraqi leaders are sitting down to settle the difference between negotiation and not through violence. Another way of putting it is, as my staff kids me for saying, politics has broken out in Iraq.

The fact no single party of coalition got I anywhere near the clear majority would make forming a government in a parliamentary system difficult under any circumstances. Decade after a decade of dictatorship and war, it is even more daunting task here in Iraq.

Unlike after the last election, however, a caretaker government is providing security to basic services and preventing a dangerous power vacuum from erupting. But that is not a durable solution to the many challenges and significant opportunities Iraq faces.

The Iraqi people voted in large numbers across communities. If you don't mind, and forgive me for saying so, they expect a government that reflects the result of the votes they cast.

And that's going to require Iraqi politicians to place the national interest above their own, a difficult thing in any country including ours. It is not our place to tell the Iraqis who should lead. But I strongly urge them to max the courage of their citizens have shown by bringing this process to a close and forming a government, and I trust they will do so soon.

Since war is human endeavor, its contours can never be fully drawn with numbers. But the sheer scope of our commitment to the Iraqi people bears some reflection. More than a million American service members have deployed here since the conflict began. And I am in awe of their accomplishments and their significant sacrifices, including all of you sitting before me today.

This is particularly true for more than 30,000 troops wounded in action, Over 4,408 fallen angels who have made the ultimate sacrifice, along with others of the coalition.

It is no secret that this war has divided Americans, but they have never shrunk or either political party has shrunk, from a united support for an extraordinary United States military for extraordinary service of our troops.

As President Obama said last night, now is the time to put these differences behind us and come together to meet the many challenges that remain and facing at home. Today is also an important acknowledgement. It is important to acknowledge the magnitude of the Iraqi losses in this conflict. Tens of thousands security forces and innocent civilians have been killed. Many times that number have been wounded and displaced.

I pray that all of those scarred by this war in Iraq come to know the balm of lasting peace. And I believe, I truly believe that their darkest days are now behind them. They have such a gray opportunity as they step up to it.

After all the Iraqis endured, we understand their deeply fell desire to control their own lives and determine their own fate and maintain their own security. That's why we kept President Bush's commitment to withdraw our forces from Iraqi cities last summer, why President Obama has now kept his promise, made one month after he took office, and to end our combat mission and draw down to a force of 50,000, and why we will make good on our agreement with the Iraqis to remove all our forces by the end of next year.

We gather today in the capital that once boasted the planet's greatest assemblage of universities, hospitals, and museums, a cultural beacon whose centerpiece was a grand intellectual bazaar known literally as the House of Wisdom.

In modern times, Iraq has faced hardship most nations cannot fathom. But it is blessed to vast national bounty and natural resources. And the wisdom of the ages lives on in the people here in Iraq and educated, adaptive, above all resilient people.

This inevitable store of human talent and natural wealth are the tools that can now forge a secure and prosperous future for the people of Iraq. And god willing, you are on the path to fulfill that promise again. We are proud to be your partner.

Thank you all. May God bless you all, and may god protect our troops.

(APPLAUSE)

CHETRY: We heard from Vice President Joe Biden, speaking about the handover, speaking about the eventual full withdrawal of our 50,000 U.S. troops.

VELSHI: And he reiterated, by the end of 2011 it's going to happen. And you have to wonder what it is going the look like when that happens at the end of 2011, because it's less than a year and a half away.

CHETRY: We have with us Ken Pollack as well as General George Joulwan and Bobby Ghosh. One of things you noted, Bobby, you didn't see many Iraqi faces. The president thanked Iraq's leaders. But where was the prime minister? Where was the president?

GHOSH: The Iraqi president doesn't seem to be there, the Iraqi prime minister does not seem to be there. That tells you something. What we regard here as a very important moment, the American vice president is there, but the Iraqi top leadership don't seem to be part of the ceremony at all.

And that's quite telling. All the American blood, all this American treasure that has gone into creating this moment, and the top Iraqi politicians don't want to be a part of it.

VELSHI: They also don't have -- they've got a caretaker government. Vice President Biden said it again. President Obama said it last night. They have not been able to six months after a vote form a government in Iraq.

And General Joulwan, you were saying while we were listening to this, that there is a real fear they have to get this done by the end of next year because those 50,000 troops are going to come out. What does Iraq look like after all of this?

GEN. GEORGE JOULWAN, U.S. ARMY (RET.): What is that end state going to look like in a year and three and four months? And I think that it is very important that this Sunni, Shia, and Kurds -- and the Kurds, I think, play a dominant role there, can play a role here in breaking this impasse. It needs to be done so that the tough part of build thing country up again, not just militarily, but the diplomatically and all the services that need to come in, take place and in the next year to year and a half. That is crucial.

CHETRY: I want to ask Ken Pollack about what the long-term impact is. Not only of what is going on in Iraq but also what this means for the future of our will to engage in wars and in long wars as we have seen with both Iraq and Afghanistan and the war-weary American public.

Where does this leave us moving forward in terms of any type of military action in the interests of national security?

KENNETH POLLACK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Well, I think that -- the American leader is going to recognize that he will have a very hard time, she will have a very hard time convincing the American people there's such a thing as a quick and easy war. What we have learned in Iraq and Afghanistan is that wars are often easy to get into and very difficult to get out.

I think that given the economic problems which -- remember, the president in a speech that was billed to be about Iraq spent quite a bit of time talking about the economy and the economic issues facing Americans. At this moment in time it seems highly unlikely the American people will be looking for another war.

That's obviously very important given the very ambitious foreign policy agenda that the president has before him because he will have to tackle a whole lot of hard issues, let's not forget, including Iran, and he will be in circumstances with the American people not at all disposed to using military force in those circumstances.

VELSHI: We are watching the changes of the official handover now. This is the changing of the colors taking place right now. This is the transfer of power, and a historic moment for America. This is the transfer of power from the U.S. military control of Iraq to the Iraqis. It is happening now despite the fact, as Bobby Ghosh says, we do not seem to see an overwhelming Iraqi presence there.

There's a new American general who is taking over command from Ray Odierno. The Americans are handing over the control of the country, the security of the country to the Iraqis, the end of combat operations being signified by what you are looking at right now.

CHETRY: The symbolic transfer of power taking place right before our eyes. It's important to remember the more than 4,400 American troops that have died in Iraq since the March, 2003 invasion, as well as several hundred thousand, by many estimates it could be more, Iraqi civilians as well.

And also, of course, as we know, this by no means means a complete end to American troop presence. They have -- American troops will still have the right to defend themselves and their military facilities. These are actions that could still bring American troops into harm's way.

But again, as we heard reiterated by the vice president just moments ago, the U.S. is committed still to removing all forces by the end of 2011.

I want to ask General Joulwan about that statement once again from Vice President Biden, and the president also talking about it last night. Usually there is a little bit more ambiguity about conditions on the ground, about steps in the process before the definitive word we are at. This is almost in reverse. Why?

JOULWAN: Well, the president was trying to make his point as was Vice President Biden. But I think it is incumbent now upon the senior military leadership as we get closer to those dates, that the senior military leadership gives clear military advice.

If the situation deteriorates or if the conditions aren't right, they have an obligation to come back and, not fight the problem, but say here are the risks involved. If we do this at the end of 2011, here are the risks. And the political leadership needs to weigh those risks and say what do we do now?

VELSHI: Am I hearing you say that you think it is worth putting on the table not leaving by tend of 2011?

JOULWAN: If the conditions aren't there, if we are not meeting that in stay we talked about, if it is in our interests that we need to stay, then the commanders need to say that. And they need to weigh those risks in terms of in a decision to pull out, the political leadership does.

That's how we operate in the military. We either fight the problem, or we lay those risks on the table. That's our job.

VELSHI: Defense Secretary Robert Gates is speaking right now. I want to ask a quick question of Bobby Ghosh. Bobby, you were in Iraq for long time. Is Iraq and are Iraqis better off today than they were when the U.S. invasion took place?

GHOSH: In the very simple sense, yes, they are. But all the gains that were taking place in the last seven years are very, very fragile, and Iraqis are very keenly aware of that. They know that all this effort that's gone to bringing them to this place could all be in vain if in the next year or two all the Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda-linked elements come back if they don't get to the political stability they need. They need -- if their political leadership doesn't step up to the plate.

If I could add something to what the general said. There is one other timetable that we immediate to consider, which is the Iraqi timetable. Iraqis may decide six months from now they want the U.S. to leave sooner. They may decide they want to ask the U.S. to stay longer depending how the circumstances evolve.

So let's not assume this is all our schedule and this is all to the White House's agenda and White House's plan. There are other elements at work here that have -- that the White House has no influence in.

CHETRY: The political handover, that's one of the facts of it.

I just want to quickly ask Ken Pollack because we have him with us as well. When we talk about our Iraqis better off, part of the argument to go into war was that we have to fight terror and become safer around the world. There's been some analysis of that that we have been reading in the papers and online over the last few days that say if that was our goal, that we failed, because there are more terrorists now and more radicalized because of our presence in Iraq. What's your take?

POLLACK: First, I think the terrorism argument is the weakest argument for going into Iraq because the simple face of the matter is Saddam Hussein had very limited ties to international terrorism and no ties to Al Qaeda by and large. As far as what's happened, you know, we did see a spike in violence and Iraq, Al Qaeda went into Iraq and they had their heyday there. And they have also been handed a very significant defeat.

As for what happens going on in the future, I think that really depends on those points Bobby Ghosh was making. What happens in Iraq? Is Iraq able to emerge as a stable and prosperous society? If it is, I think that that will be a very severe defeat for the forces of bin Laden and Islamic terrorism.

People who are trying to say that what the Americans are bringing -- pluralism and prosperity, western model can't possibly work in the Arab world. On the other hand, if Iraq falls back into civil war and you see recurrence of violence, then I think those forces will be greatly multiplied. So I think the jury, as in so many things in Iraq, is still out.

VELSHI: All right, Ken, thanks very much for joining us on this. And we are going to con to follow what's going on in Iraq. This handover ceremony is just about complete.

CHETRY: And what's happening now is Defense Chief Robert Gates is speaking. We have our Barbara Starr monitoring that. We will check in with her. We are just going to take a quick break. It's 44 minutes past the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ALI VELSHI, CNN GUEST ANCHOR: It's the very recent poll. Only 29 percent of the respondents think that the U.S. has achieved its stated goals in Iraq. Wow.

All right, with this transfer of military power in Iraq this morning, U.S. troops know that their job is not over; 50,000 Americans in uniform are staying in Iraq. The plan is until the end of next year.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: There are tens of thousands more now fighting America's other war. That's Afghanistan. And many of the soldiers from both of the war zones come home from the -- come from the home of the Army's Screaming Eagles. Fort Campbell, Kentucky.

And that's where we find our Pentagon correspondent, Barbara Starr. It must be a surreal moment for you covering all of this, watching that handover, that official handover of power in Iraq.

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: You know, Kiran and Ali, it really is. You know, years ago, standing in Baghdad under very heavy armored protection of U.S. military security, I think it's a little hard to imagine that this day ever would, in fact, come.

For U.S. soldiers here at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, the home of the 101st Airborne Division, they are still very much involved in both wars. Really, we were on the training grounds yesterday, seeing troops getting ready go. They have done three combat tours in Iraq here and they are sending more troops to be part of that 50,000 contingent of support troops that will remain in Iraq through next year.

They -- the 101st Airborne involved in very heavy combat in eastern Afghanistan. These guys here are still in the thick of it. And we talked to some family members to see their feeling; some wives, some mothers of troops on deployment to see how they felt, whether they thought all of this signifies that Iraq is really over.

Listen to what one lady had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARLA SCHROEDER, WIFE OF CSM SCOTT SCHROEDER: I think the memorials and whatnot that are throughout posts will stand as testament to what was done, what -- what we contributed to. And -- and I don't think that will ever go away.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STARR: Never go away. That's really the mood that you see here. This post, the 101st Airborne, lost nearly 200 troops in the Iraq war. There are monuments such as the one behind me to the fallen, the wounded are here on post almost anywhere you look.

So this is a place that has paid a very heavy price and for them, Iraq now part of their history, part of their lives -- Ali, Kiran.

VELSHI: Barbara thanks very much -- and thanks very much of course for your great coverage throughout this whole conflict. And as we are all agreeing on here, it's definitely not over despite the handover ceremony.

Barbara Starr at Fort Campbell, the home of the 101st Airborne Screaming Eagles.

CHETRY: We'd like to get the final thoughts right now of our panel as we talk about this. We have General George Joulwan with us, the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander. We were hearing from him, during this -- all of the people that we're hearing from, you trained or worked under you years ago -- including Ray Odierno and others.

Also we have Bobby Ghosh with us, deputy international editor of "Time". He spent five years as a Baghdad bureau chief. And also from Washington, Kenneth Pollack, is now the director from Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution.

So I would like to just get all of your final thoughts as we saw that handover ceremony and where you think in the big picture this leaves our country as well as Iraq.

GEN. GEORGE JOULWAN, FORMER NATO SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER: Well, let me first say, I serve with 101st in Vietnam, so Barbara's comments are very, very real to me.

I would hope after having watched all of this that gives us an opportunity for a more strategic look at the Middle East, to really understand with talks going on now, Washington starting today and tomorrow on the Palestinian/Israeli issue, to really look at an opportunity here that really creates some sort of momentum in trying to bring some stability to this region which I think is very much in the interests of people in that region as well as in our own.

So that's from a much more strategic look, not just from a military look of what I think this can -- this opportunity can bring about.

VELSHI: And you -- and you say region meaning beyond Iraq.

JOULWAN: Much more beyond.

VELSHI: Palestine, Lebanon, Syria.

JOULWAN: All of that.

VELSHI: Iraq. Afghanistan.

Bobby, your thoughts?

BOBBY GHOSH, DEPUTY INTERNATIONAL EDITOR, TIME: Well, you know, seven years ago President Bush gave a mission accomplished speech. Last night President Obama gave a mission relinquished speech.

Iraq now is left largely to its own devices and the U.S. does not have that much influence over how Iraq is going to evolve. I'm going back later this month and I'd be interested to see the first steps of that evolution.

My -- my worry is that the Iraqi leadership both political and military is not yet ready for these challenges. I hope I'm wrong. And if I'm -- if I'm correct, then I hope that the 50,000 remaining Americans are able to help this country evolve.

CHETRY: It's interesting that you said that we don't have a lot of control over where Iraq goes.

Kenneth Pollack, I would like to ask you, how much influence will Iran now have as to where Iraq goes?

KENNETH POLLACK, DIRECTOR, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS INTITUTION: Well, I think we need to recognize that Iraqis don't like Iranians by and large and would like to limit Iran's influence.

And ultimately what matters in Iraq is what the Iraqis do. It goes back to Bobby Ghosh's wonderful points again and again. If Iraq emerges as a strong independent country, a stable country, Iran's influence is going to be marginal and America's interests are going to be safe and secured by that. It's the only thing that's really going to secure our interests.

On the other hand, if Iraq falls back into civil war as a result of the domestic political problems that Bobby was just talking about, first America's vital interests are going to be enormously threatened and it's going to create the kind of opportunities for Iran and other problematic countries in the region to increase their influence and increase their role throughout the region. CHETRY: Kenneth Pollack, great insight this morning. Bobby Ghosh as well and General Joulwan, a pleasure to have all of you with us, we appreciate it.

VELSHI: And everybody keeps tweeting me. Bobby Ghosh is not my brother. I would love to have a brother that smart and good-looking.

All right. CNN is your hurricane headquarters. When we comeback hurricane Earl expected to sideswipe the East Coast bringing dangerous waters as the storm passes. CNN is your hurricane headquarters.

Rob Marciano is in charge next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Welcome back to the most news of the morning. We are following a lot of stories this morning. Domestically, Hurricane Earl bearing down on the U.S. East Coast; the powerful storm packing 125- mile-an-hour winds, threatening the Carolina coastline in particular.

VELSHI: And now mandatory evacuations have been ordered for North Carolina's Ocracoke Island. Right now, it appears Earl may sideswipe the Carolinas, the Eastern Seaboard up to New England.

CNN is your hurricane headquarters. Rob Marciano is tracking the developments for us. He's at Virginia Beach. Rob what's the situation?

ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Well, we are certainly hoping for a sideswipe Ali. It very well could be a direct landfall. Sideswipe will be a good scenario; even better will be turning completely out to sea. But it's heading in our direction.

Northwestern movement now, 60 miles a hour, beginning to pick up some speed. It's at 125-mile-an-hour of sustained winds but it is less than 800 miles from Cape Hatteras now. By the way, parts of their county, including the (INAUDIBLE) and Cape Hatteras, there's been a mandatory evacuation for all visitors there. That just announced in the last hour.

There is your forecast track. Expect it to get very close, if not come over the Outer Banks of North Carolina tomorrow night and into Friday morning and then scoot up the East Coast and potentially hit parts of eastern New England. So that part of the scenario hasn't changed.

If anything, guys, we have seen this forecast track shift westward and westward and westward which is not what folks have been hoping for. The problem here that I have found is that there hasn't really been a big storm here in several years. Really not since Isabelle have they been pounded by a major storm. So that's the concern here.

I suspect warnings will be posted later on today and that people will be taking this storm seriously. Because if it gets closer than we think, it is going to be trouble -- Ali and Kiran.

CHETRY: We don't want it to be tracking westerly right now but that's what seems to be happening.

Great job today Rob, thanks so much.

And just one quick note; we also did get word that Hatteras Island visitors only have been put under a mandatory evacuation order. This comes from the Dare County control group meeting this morning about the storm. So, of course, everybody in that area is going to be checking their local listings and checking in with local officials to make sure.

VELSHI: Take this seriously. It is a real storm that's coming in. Don't worry about that category 3; it's 125 miles an hour.

Thanks very much. What a great day it has been. It's been a busy news day but it's great to be with you again.

CHETRY: We'll see you back here tomorrow?

VELSHI: And the only thing I'm missing is the last time I was here, I thought T.J. Holmes comes with the package. He was here last time, now I come up to New York he's not there.

T.J., you let me down brother.

T.J. HOLMES, CNN GUEST ANCHOR, "CNN NEWSROOM": No, man.

(CROSSTALK)

HOLMES: I think they're starting to figure us out. Ali, they should keep us in two separate places, I do believe. But good to see you, guys, this morning. You have a good one.