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American Morning

TSA's New Security Measures for Airplane Flights; NFL to Crack Down on Violent Hits; The Life of a Gun: How a Murder Weapon Wound Up in Chicago; Palin's Warning to Republicans; "Democratic Bloodbath" Prediction; Tracing Your Roots Through DNA

Aired October 19, 2010 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KIRAN CHETRY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you. Thanks so much for being with us on this Tuesday, October 19th. I'm Kiran Chetry.

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm John Roberts. Thanks so much for being with us. Here are this morning's top stories.

Sarah Palin has a message for the Republican establishment today. The GOP is through if it ignores the Tea Party. We'll have Palin's interview with CNN and why she's telling some Republicans to, quote, "man up."

CHETRY: Well, the NFL getting ready to start suspending players for violent hits and head shots. It comes after a number of injuries this weekend resulting from violent hits. We're going to be talking with CNN's Max Kellerman about the NFL's call to action.

ROBERTS: And it's more than 600 miles from Mississippi to Illinois, and that's exactly how far an illegal handgun traveled before it was used to kill a Chicago police officer. "Tracing the Life of a Gun," an "AMERICAN MORNING" original just ahead.

CHETRY: First up this hour, it's crunch time on the campaign trail, and the Democrats are hoping a little star power can turn their fortunes around. Just 14 days to go until Election Day, and the White House is calling on the party's heavy weights to do some heavy lifting between now and November 2nd.

ROBERTS: First lady Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, President Obama, former president Bill Clinton all fanning out this weekend to prop up the party's candidates. Ed Henry up early this morning, live at the White House where it looks like they're pulling out all the stops. A move of desperation, Ed? Are they very worried?

ED HENRY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, good morning, John. They certainly are worried particularly about losing control of the House. But now there have been increasing worries about losing the Senate, as well.

And that's why you're going to see Vice President Biden, really full-court press today, hitting Washington, California, and Nevada. That's because you have three Senate incumbents out there, Patty Murray, Barbara Boxer, and Harry Reid all in some big trouble out west. And so when you talk to senior advisers to this president, they say they're trying to basically build kind of a firewall out west to make sure they save, they hope, all three of those Senate incumbents to prevent Republicans from taking control of the Senate.

In fact, tomorrow the president himself heads out west. He's hitting all three of those western states plus some more. First lady Michelle Obama hitting two of those three states, Washington and California next week.

And yesterday she was in yet another big Senate showdown there in Connecticut, standing up for the Democratic candidate Richard Blumenthal. And she has sort of a softer tone, trying to be more positive, perhaps, than some of the attacks from the president and the vice president, because her approval ratings are 65 percent, 20 points higher than her husband. And she's saying the stakes two weeks from now are enormous.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHELLE OBAMA, U.S. FIRST LADY: You've got to tell them that they can't just vote once and wait for change to happen and hope for it to happen, they have to vote every single time.

(APPLAUSE)

They've got to vote for their council members and their mayors and their governors and their members of Congress, because in the end, our campaign was never just about putting one man in the White House. It was always about building a movement for change, millions of voices strong, a movement that lasts beyond one year, beyond one campaign.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HENRY: And right there you see the other key part of this White House strategy, which is a deep concern here that there were a lot of people turning out for the first time, especially young people for then Senator Obama in 2008 that were going to stay home in a midterm election. So that's why they're putting all these big guns out there to sort of show how big the stakes really are two weeks from today.

And what's also interesting, though, when you peel back sort of the rhetoric is the big picture electoral map now. The first lady yesterday in Connecticut, that's a Senate seat, the Democrats with Chris Dodd have held something for like three decades, those western states, all Democratic incumbents.

So these big guns are not going to swing states trying for Democratic pickups. Instead, all they're doing in the final days is playing defense, John and Kiran.

ROBERTS: Sign of the times. Ed, thanks.

A warning to the Republican establishment, get onboard with the Tea Party or the mainstream party is done. That comes from Sarah Palin, the former Alaskan governor who was in Reno, Nevada, yesterday telling supporters the party needs to man up and support Tea Party candidates like Christine O'Donnell.

Afterward Palin talked exclusively to CNN political producer Shannon Travis.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHANNON TRAVIS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Governor, what if the tea party winds up splitting the Republican Party in two. Who do you stand with?

SARAH PALIN, (R) FORMER ALASKA GOVERNOR: You know, I don't think it will, because I think more of the machine within the GOP is going to understand that the "we the people" message is rising and resonating throughout with independents, with hardcore conservatives, with moderates, because it's just so full of commonsense and time- tested truths that could put the economy on the right track, that heaven forbid that the GOP machine strays from this message. If so, GOP is through.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: Wow. Shannon Travis joins us at 7:30 eastern with more of his interview with Sarah Palin.

CHETRY: All right, wow. She certainly has a point of view on that.

ROBERTS: She doesn't mince words.

CHETRY: No, not at all.

Also new this morning, former NFL star Junior Seau is recovering in a south California hospital after his SUV plunged off of a cliff near San Diego yesterday. Police say he apparently fell asleep at the wheel, that drugs and alcohol were not involved. He did suffer minor injuries.

The accident came just hours after Seau was arrested for allegedly assaulting his live-in girlfriend.

ROBERTS: Swimmers at a south Florida beach getting unwanted company. A group of about 30 sharks was spotted spread out in the waters off of Hillsboro Beach. The beach itself wasn't closed, but swimmers were told to move closer ashore until the sharks move out.

CHETRY: That's always good advice. I'd take it.

(LAUGHTER)

(WEATHER BREAK)

ROBERTS: Coming up, a gridiron tragedy. A Rutgers University football player paralyzed from the neck down after a violent collision in a game on Saturday.

CHETRY: Also, holiday travelers will have to provide more personal information in order to board a plane. It's part of the TSA's plan to secure the skies even better. Jeanne Meserve has an exclusive look on how it will work and whether it will slow you down if you're traveling. It's nine minutes past the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: It's 12 minutes after the hour on the CNN security watch. Holiday travelers be advised, your airline will need to know a little bit more about you when you fly.

CHETRY: Yes, it's part of the government's new secure flight program, one that fulfills a key recommendation of the 9/11 Commission. Homeland Security Correspondent Jeanne Meserve has an exclusive look at how this will work. She's live this morning live at Reagan National Airport. Hi, Jeanne.

JEANNE MESERVE, CNN HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Kiran, good morning, John. Most travelers won't even notice this. What happens is when you book you're going to have to give the airlines a few additional pieces of information. It's part of this program called Secure Flight. The question is, just how much more secure will it make us?

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MESERVE: At a secure location shown exclusively to CNN, computers and analysts search out known terrorists trying to board airplanes.

PAUL LEYH, TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION: Ultimately, we're going to be looking at, you know, 2.1 million to 2.2 million records that go through the system.

MESERVE: The program called Secure Flight matches passenger information against government watch lists. Known terrorists on the no-fly list won't get a boarding pass. Those on the so-called selectee list will get extra screening.

MESERVE (on camera): When you buy a plane ticket now you have to put in your name just the way it appears on your government ID, your gender, and your date of birth. That additional information will help the government determine who is a known terrorist and who is not.

MESERVE (voice-over): And prevent screw-ups like misidentifying the late senator Ted Kennedy as a possible terrorist. It should also close gaps like the one exposed when Faisal Shahzad, the Time Square bomber, nearly escaped because an airline hadn't updated its no-fly list.

But Secure Flight would not have stopped Omar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Christmas Day bomber, who was not on the no-fly or selectee list. John Pistole, a former top FBI official will implement Secure Flight in his new job as head of the Transportation Security Administration.

JOHN PISTOLE, TRANSPORTATION SECURITY ADMINISTRATION: It's only as good as the terror watch list. The question is, is it the best available information we have? Yes, I believe it is. Is it a perfect system? No.

MESERVE: Since the attempted Christmas Day bombing, the no-fly list has nearly doubled, officials say. But aviation security expert Rafi Ron says checking against the improved list isn't enough.

RAFI RON, NEW AGE SECURITY SOLUTIONS: Well, the big shortcoming of secure flight is that we are looking only at names that we are familiar with. And the problem is that most terrorist attacks are not being carried out by people who we are familiar with.

MESERVE: Richard Reid, for instance, wasn't on authorities' radar before he tried to ignite explosives in his shoes, nor was Mohammad Atta before 9/11. Secure Flight wouldn't have stopped either of them.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MESERVE: Everyone we spoke to thinks that the new system is better than the old one, which had individual airlines checking the passenger names against the watch list. They also point out that there are many other layers of security like those reinforced cockpit doors like federal air marshals. John, Kiran, back to you.

ROBERTS: Jeanne Meserve for us this morning at Reagan National. Jeanne, thanks.

CHETRY: Well, if you watched football this weekend, you know there are a lot of violent hits. Multiple players with concussions, neck injuries. The NFL now says they cannot and will not tolerate it. They're actually ready to suspend players even for a first-time offense. But how do they enforce it? Our Max Kellerman will weigh in. The resident sports guy joining us in just a moment.

Fifteen minutes past the hour.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A defenseless player.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: Eighteen minutes after the hour. A Rutgers University football player still in intensive care at a New Jersey hospital this morning. Eric LeGrand was paralyzed from the neck down after a devastating collision with an Army player in the game on Saturday. Doctors do not yet know if LeGrand's injury is going to be permanent.

Watch this here. Bam, he hits him in the shoulder with the head. Really injures his neck badly. So they don't if the paralysis is going to be permanent or not.

CHETRY: Well, everyone is certainly hoping and praying for the best for him, the best possible outcome. But what a devastating situation. And, you know, this has happened a lot this weekend, in fact. I mean, not to that extent, but when helmet meets helmet on the football field, as we saw there, the results can be devastating. There was an especially brutal weekend in the NFL. And now, the organization is actually taking steps to crack down on violent hits.

ROBERTS: The league releasing a statement saying, quote, "We can't let up on protecting players, particularly from these head injuries that are potentially life-altering, not just career-altering. You have to consider suspensions in flagrant-foul cases and egregious cases. Suspensions are not off the table, even for first-time offenders."

CNN contributor Max Kellerman joins us with his thoughts this morning. So up until now, they've been fining players. But many of those players for the salaries they command, they don't even feel the fines. Will they feel the suspension? Do you think this will curb their behavior?

MAX KELLERMAN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: It's so interesting to me about this whole situation is the idea of suspensions. The league is quoting Rodney Harrison who's an analyst, a studio analyst, at this point, was a great football player. And they're quoting him saying, you know, it needs to be suspensions because fines didn't mean anything to me. It was the suspension that got me because I can't be there with my teammates. I'm letting them down, et cetera. The league is quoting Harrison about that talking about suspensions rather than just fines.

CHETRY: Well, let's just show people a couple of the hits that sort of prompted what happened. On the first one, this is at the Eagles/Falcons game. And you have Falcons player Dunta Robinson basically launching himself head first into Eagles DeSean Jackson. It was a pretty frightening collision. And both of them sustained concussions. And the last word this morning when I checked was that Jackson won't be playing in this upcoming game this week. And then there's another one. The Steelers linebacker James Harrison. He sidelined two Cleveland Browns players with head injuries after jarring hits. The question, though, one of them they say may have been legal. The other one they're more concerned about that one. Football is a full-contact sport. The head's in the game. So how do you really enforce this?

KELLERMAN: Well, it goes beyond just blatant helmet to helmet contact. The quote that has everyone in a tizzy at this point in the sports punditry world is for devastating hits you can be suspended. Devastating has so far has been left undefined.

So what's a devastating hit? I'm a New York football Giants fan. And they're a physical team. You know, they're known for their defense and their hard hits on quarterbacks. They've knocked out something like four quarterbacks already this season. Giants fans take pride in that. Look, our defense is so good, we're knocking the other quarterback out of the game. Nothing illegal, just with really devastating hits.

To make those illegal is to fundamentally change the nature of football.

CHETRY: Right.

KELLERMAN: Where unlike baseball, which is a more mechanical kind of sport, trying harder in baseball doesn't necessarily make you a better player. It can make you worse if you're pressing too hard, they say. But football, being in full contact, effort really does matter. A lesser talented team can overcome a more talented team with greater effort. And more physicality, as they say. And this changes that.

ROBERTS: But there's full contact and there's, you know, the type of full contact. And let's play the video from the Rutgers game. The Rutgers Army game on Saturday. When you take a look at what happened here. And this is the aftermath. But Michael Brown's running the kickback, and LeGrand comes into him head first like a spear, hits him in the shoulder, which puts all the compression on the neck. These guys are intentionally going after other players with the head, with the helmet.

KELLERMAN: What's so interesting about that play is the defensive player winds up hurt. The defensive player is the guy who led with his helmet.

ROBERTS: And he's 6'2", 275.

KELLERMAN: And it brings up another interesting point to me which is that great football players. And one of the things that people I think respond to about the NFL is the sense that with that greater effort, with a willingness to sacrifice oneself physically, and the idea that you can overcome a greater talent with that effort, there comes a risk to the player. Are you willing to risk yourself? And these players not only have to be protected from other players, they have to be protected from themselves. Like a corner man in boxing throwing in the towel because his fighter is willing to keep fighting and absorb punishment.

CHETRY: You can tackle, you can sack a quarterback without knocking them down in the head and without using your head.

KELLERMAN: Sometimes, but it's sort of moving towards touch football. I mean, in all contact sports as we become more civilized, I suppose, as they become more civilized, these kind of rules are enforced. It happened in boxing, note 13th and 15th round. In mixed martial arts, they changed the rules in order to get sanctioned in all these states.

CHETRY: Right.

KELLERMAN: And in football now, you can't hit a quarterback while he's down. Well, sometimes it's not clear in the heat of the moment is the quarterback down or not? Well, if he's not down, he can get up and continue and make the play.

CHETRY: Right.

ROBERTS: Yes. KELLERMAN: And then you got burned on a big play. So the idea is it's sort of moving away from the vicious, full-contact barbaric kind of sport and towards more of a touch football.

CHETRY: Wasn't moving that way this weekend. This weekend was --

KELLERMAN: Those were devastating questions, by the way. You're suspended.

ROBERTS: Max Kellerman this morning. Max, thanks.

A police officer shot and killed by a suspected gang member. But how did the alleged murder weapon -- or how did the alleged murderer wind up with a weapon that made its way to the streets of Chicago all the way from Mississippi? Tracing the life of a gun. An "A.M. Original" coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHETRY: Twenty-five minutes past the hour. Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning.

More than 600 miles separate Mississippi and Illinois. But somehow a handgun that was used to kill a Chicago police officer earlier this year traveled all that distance.

ROBERTS: Chicago has become the hub for illegal weapon sales after Officer Tom Wortham was killed. We decided to track the life of gun, the life of the particular gun that fired that fatal shot. Randi Kaye joins us now live with an "A.M. Original," a story that you'll see only here on AMERICAN MORNING.

Good morning, Randi.

RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning to both of you. We're talking about gun trafficking, which really is a major problem. Plays a key role in all the violence that we see around the country. People who get guns from traffickers, of course, wouldn't be able to buy a gun legally. They have a criminal history, very likely, and they can't do it. So they rely on these gun traffickers who pay people a small sum of money on the side to buy the guns in states where the laws are much more relaxed. And then traffickers sell those guns to the highest bidder. In the case that we followed, the result was deadly for one Chicago police officer.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE (voice-over): Thomas Wortham wanted to be a police officer just like his father, but his promising career with the Chicago Police Department ended suddenly in May. Officer Wortham was gunned down by four alleged gang members trying to steal his motorcycle. It happened in a matter of seconds. Just outside his parents' house. His father, a retired police sergeant grabbed his gun to try and save his son.

THOMAS WORTHAM III, FATHER OF MURDERED OFFICER: I saw them with their guns out, and I -- I hollered out to him. KAYE (on camera): And you shot one of them?

WORTHAM: I won't say any more than they shot my son and in return, they were shot.

KAYE (voice-over): This is where this tale of tragedy ends. But investigators would soon figure out where it began. About 600 miles away in Mississippi where the gun used in the murder was first purchased. This ATF agent who asked not to be identified worked the case in Mississippi.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That trace showed that one of our defendants had purchased that firearm in Mississippi.

KAYE: The ATF says it was purchased in 2007 by a man who was paid $100 to buy guns for gun trafficker Quawi Gates.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The individual went in, completed the paperwork, and gave the firearms to Mr. Gates and never thought about the guns again.

KAYE: The ATF says Gates paid at least three people to buy guns for him, which he then sold to gang members in Chicago.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He preyed upon young college students that didn't have much money. And he would offer them $100 just to go into a gun store, fill out paperwork and hand them a bag of guns. Simple as that.

KAYE: The ATF says it knows of 16 guns that Gates trafficked into Illinois. This map shows some of the crimes involving those guns. Problem is, there's no way to know how many of Gates' guns are still on the street. The ATF says it can't trace them until they're used in a crime and recovered.

(on camera): This room is where the ATG in Chicago stores some of the illegal guns it's recovered off the street. Over the last few years, agents say they've seen a greater demand for more dangerous guns. Criminals, they say, are no longer satisfied with a smaller gun like this 0.25. They're now demanding that traffickers bring them something like this, a 0.9 millimeter. You can see the difference. This one can do much more harm.

(voice-over): Chicago ATF agent Andrew Traver says an illegal gun may stay on the street for decades.

ANDREW TRAVER, ATF: We've recovered guns that were originally purchased in the '70s that turn up in homicides here. They can bounce around and be used in multiple crimes.

KAYE: Traver says guns are trafficked into Illinois from at least 25 states because there are no gun stores in Chicago.

(on camera): How much money do the traffickers stand to make?

TRAVER: I'm sure they're making close to 100 percent profit on the guns that they sell.

KAYE (voice-over): In the case of Officer Thomas Wortham, Quawi Gates made a few hundred dollars profit on the gun that fired the fatal shot. In the game of gun trafficking, the price of a policeman's life.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE: And that gun trafficker that we were talking about, Quawi Gates, has been convicted. And he is now serving 10 years in prison for gun trafficking in terms of the other three suspects who were involved in that alleged shooting of the police officer. They are awaiting trial. And the father who defended his son, you're asking about that. He has not been charged with any crime in trying to help him in that doorway of his house.

CHETRY: That's the trafficking issue. How do people get involved in gun trafficking in the first place?

KAYE: Well, it really has a lot to do with family because it's happening a lot. The guns are coming from Alabama, Mississippi, and what's happening is people - the traffickers are going back down to those areas - say they're in Chicago like in this case. They go back down to Alabama, Mississippi maybe to see family, maybe they grew up there, and the gun laws are much more relaxed.

So they can buy the guns there. They don't buy them themselves but they give somebody a few hundred dollars, they send them inside. They send them actually with a shopping list and they buy all the guns and then they give them to the gun traffickers and they bring them back up to where they live and back up north. So that's the stream of how they go.

ROBERTS: So how big of a business is this? If somebody's making a few hundred dollars profit on a single gun, that's probably higher margin than that legitimate gun dealer.

KAYE: Yes, and in some cases they can make up to $1,000 I mean, depending on the gun. So we talked to that special agent in charge, Agent (INAUDIBLE) he said that when he first started there six years ago, there were two states that they were dealing with in terms of where the weapons were coming from, where the trafficking was taking place, where they're being trafficked in from. And now he said they have 12 active cases.

And at some point, they had 25 active cases in 25 different states. So it's a big business. And the problem is they can't get ahead of it because they have to recover a gun in order to trace it. So the gun has to be first be used in a crime. So it's a lot of catch-up, which isn't very good for the ATF.

ROBERTS: Fascinating story this morning, Randi. Thanks so much.

And tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING, T.J. Holmes gives us a chilling look inside Chicago's gun culture and shows us just how easy it is for kids to get their hands on deadly weapons. CHETRY: We're crossing the half hour right now. Time for a look at the top stories this morning.

The White House is ready to hand Pakistan a $2 billion security assistance package to help fight extremists along the border with Afghanistan. Sources tell CNN that the announcement will be made later this week when Pakistani officials are in Washington for high level talks.

ROBERTS: It's being called one of the biggest drug busts in Mexico's history. Police seizing 105 tons of marijuana in the border city of Tijuana. There was a brief shootout involved with the seizure. A government agent and a suspected drug runner were injured. 11 people were taken into custody.

CHETRY: And one of the two farms in Iowa that's being blamed for a nationwide Salmonella scare has been cleared now to begin shipping eggs again. Hillendale Farms has taken proper corrective action and can resume operations, according to the Food and Drug Administration.

Well, Nevada's Republican Senate candidate Sharron Angle taking some heat for some remarks that she made to a group of Hispanic high school students. She was questioned about why she used images of Latinos in a campaign commercial when slamming her opponent for being soft on illegal immigration. Here's a bit of Sharron Angle's response.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SHARRON ANGLE (R), NEVADA SENATE CANDIDATE: So that's what we want is a secure and sovereign nation and, you know, I don't know that all of you are Latino. Some of you look a little more Asian to me. I don't know that. What we know - what we know about ourselves is that we are a melting pot in our country. My grandchildren are evidence of that. I'm evidence of that. I've been called the first Asian legislator in our Nevada State Assembly.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHETRY: Well, Angle's spokesman said she was trying to make the point that this country's a melting pot and you can't judge people based on stereotypes or what they look like. But the comments even some in the audience scratching their heads.

ROBERTS: Well, Sarah Palin laying out the consequences if the Republican Party strays from the Tea Party's message. In a rare interview with CNN, Palin warned Republican Party leaders that if they don't adhere to Tea Party values, the GOP may be through.

CHETRY: Shannon Travis had a chance to speak to Palin and he joins us on the phone from Elko, Nevada. That's one of the stops of the Tea Party Express. Hi there. Shannon, what's going on?

SHANNON TRAVIS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (ON THE PHONE): Yes, good morning, Kiran. Yes, we're here, early morning here in Elko, Nevada as the Tea Party Express here overnight here before heading on to Healy, Nevada. They've got a rally there today and a later rally in Las Vegas. As you just mentioned, we caught up with Sarah Palin yesterday. And asked her one of the questions that many people wanted to know. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRAVIS (on camera): The Tea Party movement winds up splitting the Republican party in two, who do you stand with?

SARAH PALIN (R), FORMER ALASKA GOVERNOR: You know, I don't think it will. I think more of the machine within the GOP is going to understand that this we the people message is rising and it's resonating throughout with independents, with hard core conservatives, with moderates because it's just so full of common sense and time- tested truths that could put the economy back on track that heaven forbid the GOP strays from this message. If so, the GOP is through.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TRAVIS: John and Kiran, take a listen to that message. She says that if the Republican establishment strays from the message of the Tea Party movement that they are through. So there's a stern warning from Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and obviously the former 2008 vice presidential candidate to the party establishment.

ROBERTS: She's never been, Shannon, one time known to mince words and that's pretty obviously reinforced in that statement. Great that you got that interview. I don't know that she's ever spoken with us before. But all of this is going to be part of an upcoming documentary in the Tea Party movement. Tell us about that.

TRAVIS: That's right, John. That's just one of the many revealing moments that we'll have as part of our documentary. It's called "Boiling Point Inside the Tea Party." It'll air October 30th and 31st at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. We caught up, in addition to Palin, we spoke with Christine O'Donnell. We spoke with Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, we spoke with her challenger, Joe Miller, there in Alaska.

So it's going to be great. We've got a lot of revealing moments. It'll be very informative. So definitely Palin is just one of the many people that will be part of that documentary.

CHETRY: Shannon Travis for us this morning from Elko, Nevada. Thanks for getting up early with us.

ROBERTS: Two weeks now until election day. Desperation in the air for the Democratic Party. Will it be a blood bath? Or is it really anyone's game? The midterm snapshot with Nathan Gonzalez, one of the country's top political analyst, coming up next.

It's 36 1/2 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROBERTS: Welcome back to the most politics in the morning. The final campaign push underway. But it may not matter in a whole lot of places. Early voting now underway in 27 states including the nation's capital. In 2008, more than 25 percent of voters cast their ballots before election day.

So, what's it going to look like? This morning, new numbers are painting a bad picture for the Democrats as we close in on election day. Nathan Gonzalez is the political editor of "Rothenberg Political Report," one of the top political prognosticators on-line. And he joins us live from Washington this morning.

Nathan, great to see you. Let's put up what your predictions are. First of all, for the House, and then we'll get into the Senate. Here's the way you've got it. You say in play there are 100 seats needed to take control for the Republicans 39, projected Republican pickups, 40 to 50. If they go for that upper number, 50, that puts them just shy of where they were in 1994 with 54 pickups. Very similar-looking year from 2010 to 1994.

NATHAN GONZALES, POLITICAL EDITOR, "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT": Right. It's going to be an ugly election night for Democrats. We just don't know quite how bad it's going to be. I think the challenge hidden in that 100 competitive seats is another key number. And that 91 of those 100 competitive seats are currently held by a Democrat while nine of those are currently held by Republicans.

So Democrats are dramatically on defense. And I think that it's - the challenge is that 50 number may not even be the cap for Republicans. We're still waiting to see how these final messages play out.

ROBERTS: Is there any way that the Democrats can hang on to control of the House?

GONZALES: Well, I wouldn't say it's over. But we're getting down to crunch time. Because as you said, voters are already voting. And so if there's something that were to be a game-changer in this election, those votes are already cast. What Democrats are trying to do is localize each election.

And voters are going in looking for change, but Democrats are trying to make Republican candidates just demonize them and make them unacceptable alternatives so voters just can't stomach pulling the lever for them even though they don't like the direction of the country.

ROBERTS: It's interesting, you know, every election year, we're reminded, "hey, you know, forget the national numbers, all politics is local," but there does seem to be a national component to it this time around. Let's take a look at what's going on in the Senate as far as the "Rothenberg Report" is concerned. You say in play, 37 Senate seats, needed to take control of the Senate for Republicans, 10. But you're only projecting six to eight pickups for the GOP. So it appears at this moment, at least, two weeks out, they can't get there.

GONZALES: Right. I think the most likely scenario is that Republicans take the House and fall short in the Senate. The Republicans need to essentially win every competitive state on the table. And even though in a wave election we see one party get a lot of those toss up or competitive seats, they usually don't win them all.

So right now Republicans need to win. They need to defeat Senate majority leader Harry Reid that we were just talking about. And they also probably need to win two out of three states. That being Washington, California, and West Virginia. And as Ed talked about just a few minutes ago, the West Coast is one of the firewalls that the Democrats are setting up in their effort to hold the senate majority.

ROBERTS: Could Christine O'Donnell's win as the nominee in Delaware be the deciding factor for the GOP? Could it turn out when all is said and done on November 2nd that the tea party shut itself on the foot here?

GONZALES: I think that could be exactly right. I think we could see Republicans get to 50 seats. They need to get to 51. And there's no question that Christine O'Donnell's nomination in Delaware took that seat from a likely Republican takeover with Congressman Mike Castle to now a likely democratic hold and that could end up making a difference.

ROBERTS: The intensity, of course, is key in any election, but particularly in these midterm elections. With whom does the intensity lie? Democrats, Republican establishment, or the Tea Party?

GONZALES: Well, there's no question that the - that the enthusiasm is with the Tea Party movement, conservatives, and Republicans. Now this is a group that hasn't been excited about anything for four or five years. But now they have a common enemy. They don't like President Obama. They don't like the direction of the country.

Democrats, meanwhile, are doing their best in the next couple of weeks to generate some of that enthusiasm and get that back because if Democrats don't show up to the polls, it's going to be an ugly combination of an apathetic democratic base, independent voters who agree more with republicans right now on the direction of the country, and an excited conservative base. And that could equal huge Democratic losses on November 2nd.

ROBERTS: Well, they've pulled out the big guns to try to bump up the enthusiasm. We'll see if it works.

Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report, great to talk to you this morning. Thanks.

GONZALES: Thanks for having me.

CHETRY: Still ahead. We're going to check in with Rob Marciano. He's keeping an eye on the forecast for us. We have thunderstorms and cooler temperatures moving east. Rob's going to give it all to us, coming up. Forty-five minutes past the hour.

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CHETRY: Fifty-three minutes past the hour. Welcome back to the Most News in the Morning. Many Americans are not only thinking about the future, they're also looking into the past, tracing their ancestry.

ROBERTS: With the advent of DNA testing you would think that the search would be simplified. But, think again. CNN's Stephanie Elam went on her own journey to trace her background and she joins us know.

Good morning. What'd you find out?

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

It was the coolest thing I've ever done. I'll admit that this is kind of a passion story. It's one of those things that you wanted to do. And I've always said, like, people ask you, who would you like to have lunch with if you could pick anyone in time? I've always said I'd like to have a meeting with the first person who made the middle passage transition from my family and just see what they would tell me about that.

Obviously that's not going to happen. But DNA testing at least allows me to find some way back, right? So I figured we'd go on this journey, work with three companies and see if I get the same results or different results to paint a picture of how I ended looking the way I look an being here with you.

Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ELAM (voice-over): I'm going on a journey to find my roots by taking DNA tests from three different companies. AfricanAncestry.com, 23andme, and Ancestry.com. The question is, will these tests give me the same results?

ROBERTS: Each of us has surprises hidden in there.

ELAM: First step, my mom's DNA, which each company traced back to Africa. African Ancestry told me I have some of the same DNA as the Jola people in Guinea-Bissau today. On my dad's side, the results were in sync but unexpected.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What this is showing R-1-B, which is a line of very, very successful European men. The relative there that we know of is John Adams.

ELAM (on camera): John Adams! John Adams.

(voice-over): But (INAUDIBLE) put that into some perspective.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The most common line in western Europe.

ELAM: Oh. But here's my dad. So why are the results so European?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Many African-Americans have at least one paternal line that traces back to Europe because of the relationships between probably -- probably between slave holders and slaves.

ELAM: So while perhaps shocking, history helped me understand the results. But the lack of a family history is why blacks trace their roots.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're the only group in this country that can't point to a country of origin. The only one. So that's why DNA testing for ancestry has particular importance for us, historically and psychologically.

ELAM: Ancestry.com's John Perrera (ph) points out there's more to everyone's story than just DNA.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You really need to look at not just the DNA, whether you get that at Ancestry.com or some other DNA service. But you really need to look at all a family history.

ELAM: Genealogist Anastasia Tyler (ph) did reveal some history of my dad's father Roland, his father John, and his father Creed (ph).

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You have such strong people in your family tree. You look at Creed and John who go from not being able to read to owning land. Born into slavery and then becoming landowners, always improving themselves. It's quite a legacy that you have.

ELAM: A legacy that's not just part of black history, but American history.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ELAM: I'm a bride without a groom. That's a picture right before I walk down the aisle so my husband's not in the picture but it's my family up until that moment.

But it was really fascinating to take a look. There's one thing I want to explain, too. With the mom's DNA. This is basically looking at my mom's mom's mom's mom's mom's mom's mom. All the way back, right? And if you take a look at that, what African Ancestry's able to do, if you have any African heritage, they can do this test called a yap test and they can actually pinpoint where you probably came from.

The other companies, they look at your deep ancestral roots. And so they were able to tell me Central Africa, Eastern Africa, that this is where those ancestors probably came from. And when you look at what they were telling me about my dad's side, to find out, here I have relatives born into slavery, 18-years-old when slavery ends and then not knowing how to write, but learning how to write and going on to own property. To find that out, there's nothing to match that.

So all three companies told me something a little different, but overall they were in sync. And so it was really surprising to find out you got a European ancestor. What happens is, think about it. You've got the Y chromosome -- my dad has it, his dad has it. And it goes all the way back. But it's charting that line, and because of the slave trade, a lot of the white slave owners who were having relationships, that's how that Y chromosome comes down. So it doesn't matter.

As Gina Page (ph) from African Ancestry pointed out, it doesn't matter if you look like Mariah Carey or Wesley Snipes, you could have a white paternal ancestor in that line. These are just two lines that we're looking at.

ROBERTS: Do they have any kind of area that they could narrow down the European ancestry to? Or was it just European?

ELAM: Well, no. It was pretty much western Europe when they look at different countries. But it's a lot of different places in there. And half of southern England is pretty much walking around with the DNA that John Adams has. So it's not really that special. I'm not presidential.

CHETRY: But, it is amazing. First of all, is it expensive to do this for people that want to do it?

ELAM: It's a couple hundred dollars. It depends on which test you do, and if you do the mom's side and the dad's side. But overall, they're accessible for consumers at this point. But in general, you can do one test. If you have African ancestry, it may be worth it to do something like that because you can get a specific area, tribe. Like I was able to get the Jola people of Guinea-Bissau.

ROBERTS: That's fascinating.

ELAM: Isn't it? It's really great. Everyone should do it, it's a great journey.

CHETRY: My mother is doing all this genealogy for the family and she accidentally stumbled upon things by just going to a library in one of these small towns in Pennsylvania and found something about her ancestry. It's a never-ending search, really.

ELAM: It's really cool. Like on Ancestry.com, they were able to show me the war card that -- the World War I card that my grandfather signed and he died when I was one so I didn't know him.

CHETRY: That's amazing.

ELAM: That's really cool. Yes.

CHETRY: Neat stuff, Stephanie. And you look beautiful in your wedding pictures, by the way.

ELAM: Oh, why thank you. Without my husband. I'm going to hear about that.

CHETRY: Also this Thursday night, CNN's Soledad O'Brien is going to examine how some are fighting the financial crisis from the pulpit. "Almighty Debt," it's a Black in American special, happening this Thursday night at 9:00 Eastern, only on CNN.

ROBERTS: Top stories are coming your way right after the break. Don't go away.

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