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American Morning

North Korea Threatening Military Retaliation Against Perceived South Korean Provocations; Macy Thanksgiving Day Parade Preparing to Start; Solutions to Thanksgiving Day Turkey Dilemma; An Afghan Thanksgiving; Black Friday Forecast

Aired November 25, 2010 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everybody. It is Thursday, November 25th. Happy turkey day. I'm Carol Costello in for Kiran Chetry.

JOE JOHNS, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Joe Johns in for John Roberts. He's got the morning off as well. Here the morning's top stories. There's a lot going on, so let's get started.

Tensions flaring along the Korean border, both sides exchanging some very tough talk. The North is threatening new attacks, the South beefing up its defenses. We're in South Korea with new details this morning.

COSTELLO: That color-coded system used to raise or lower the terrorism threat level could soon be a thing of the past. It's become somewhat of a joke anyway. So according to "The New York Times," the Department of Homeland Security is considering a new system that would be more specific about threats.

JOHNS: And was one year ago today that Tiger Woods' life changed. News of the golfer's accident outside his family's home shattered Woods' tightly controlled image and forced him to admit he cheated on his wife. As a result Woods lost sponsorship, his marriage, and went an entire year without winning a tournament.

COSTELLO: First this morning, North Korea testing the world's patience this morning. Two days after now its attack on an island in the South, Pyongyang is threatening new strikes if South Korea continues what is it calls "reckless military provocation."

At the same time, South Korea's military, which is at its highest alert level short of war, has been reinforced in areas near North Korea. The White House also says it's working to set up a conversation between President Obama and the Chinese president Hu Jintao.

Our Stan Grant is in South Korea. He just got back from the island where that attack took place.

STAN GRANT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Carol, this island is now completely deserted. It is in fact a ghost town. When you arrive there you'd be used to a bustling fishing village. Normally about 1,500 people, 1,600 people. One or two people have stayed behind. Now what you do see is pretty widespread destruction. There are a lot houses still standing, but many houses also that have been destroyed by the shell big North Korea earlier in the week. If you walk through there, there is still a very strong smell of smoke. There is it ash across the ground, shattered glass. You often see dogs that are roaming around there that once would have had families and now are sort of stray and looking for food.

A fairly large military presence, a strong coast guard presence. We actually traveled across with the coast guard and spent a couple of hours on the ground there. The people we did get to speak to say they just don't feel secure there anymore. They don't feel safe.

One person saying what is he to do. He's a fisherman. He spent all his life in that village and he has nowhere else to go. These people are caught in the cross fire here with North and South Korea squaring off. And now with the military exercises, the fear could escalate, Carol.

COSTELLO: Talking about escalation, you wonder what the next step is especially for the United States and its good ally, South Korea. So this island is deserted. South Korea has taken a hard line against North Korea, but right now it's not doing anything. So what do you think the next step might be?

GRANT: I think the thing to watch really closely are these joint exercises with the U.S. and South Korea. You know, earlier North Korea was pointing the finger of blame at South Korea, saying it was South Korea shilling in the region, its own exercise that prompted North Korea to take this action and fire upon the island itself.

Now, they're switching tacks and saying the United States needs to take responsibility for this. The United States is to blame for this. You know, they've long called South Korea a puppet regime, saying it is a puppet of the United States. Now, they're saying the U.S. is to blame for the situation.

They're also warning North Korea, warning of retaliation. Earlier in the week they spoke of a merciless military confrontation. As we say the other day, these words are now being backed up by fire power, and it's a very unpredictable situation. Carol?

COSTELLO: Stan Grant reporting for us.

China, by the way, is by far our biggest ally. Our Fareed Zakaria spoke with America's top military officer Admiral Mike Mullen about why Beijing's help is so essential.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST, "FAREED ZAKARIA GPS": Have you had any message from the Chinese government, from the Chinese military about whether they have been able to restrain North Korea or in some way communicate with North Korea?

ADM. MIKE MULLEN, CHAIRMAN, JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF: The only thing I've heard, Fareed, is the state from the Chinese government that this should certainly be a restrained environment, and that we shouldn't let this thing break out in any significant way.

I believe that it's really important that Beijing lead here as well. I believe for some time that probably the country that can influence morning North Korea the most is clearly China.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Admiral Mullen also said the attacks could be a show of strength as Kim Jong-il prepares to turn over power to his son. You can see Fareed's complete interview on "Fareed Zakaria GPS" this Sunday at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.

JOHNS: CNN is your holiday travel headquarters. Nasty weather could be a factor again today, the trip both hectic and hazardous in parts of the Midwest. In Iowa, freezing rain, snow and sleet made for slick roads. Crashes killed at least three people. There were dozens of wrecks on I-35 from Des Moines to the Minnesota border.

Hurry up and wait on the Massachusetts turnpike west of Boston, a 30-mile bumper to bumper backup. It's always a trouble spot on getaway day. More of the same is expected there throughout the long weekend.

COSTELLO: A 30-mile backup.

JOHNS: That's just unthinkable. I mean, I hate traffic so much.

It's 7:05, that is five minutes after the hour.

(WEATHER BREAK)

COSTELLO: Those highly caffeinated alcoholic drinks are becoming much harder to find. Manufacturers of drinks like Four Loko will no longer mix caffeine and alcohol in their drinks. The news came after the FDA sent warning letters out because of an unsafe food additive.

The FDA warning was issued after several incidents involving young people who got sick from the drinks. Critics say the caffeine allows people to drinks more alcohol than their body can handle.

JOHNS: He used to run the House of Representatives, but it looks like Tom DeLay will be headed to prison. The former House Majority Leader could face a 99-year prison term after his conviction for money laundering. The jury found DeLay guilty of funneling $190,000 to help elect Republicans to the Texas legislature. DeLay is calling the convictions an "abuse of power, a miscarriage of justice." His sentencing is set for December 20th.

COSTELLO: People in business affected by the Gulf oil spill are getting paid faster. Kenneth Feinberg was hired to speed up the process. In the first three months in charge Fienberg paid out more than $2 billion. BP paid out $40 million in the four months prior. Fienberg will join us tomorrow on AMERICAN MORNING. JOHNS: Protecting the polar bear could affect oil and gas exploration in Alaska. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service designated 187,000 square miles as critical habitat. It does not create a refuge but it does allow the regulators to consider the bears when making decisions about major projects. Polar bears are a protected species in the U.S.

COSTELLO: And all that talk of protesting new security measures at airports was apparently just that, talk. The TSA said screening went pretty smoothly yesterday with few people joining the national opt-out protest, by refusing the high-tech scans by favor of slower pat-downs.

JOHNS: Well, there wasn't anybody in the airports when I passed. Around 3:00 in the afternoon, nothing. It took five minutes to get through TSA, one of the easiest trips I've had.

COSTELLO: And nobody was refusing to go through the full-body scanner?

JOHNS: No. I sure didn't. On the other hand, as I said, I asked to be frisked because I just wanted to know what it was like so I could talk about it. They wouldn't even do that.

COSTELLO: I'm going through the full body scanner.

(LAUGHTER)

JOHNS: Across the country, ovens are at the ready, and it is now time to talk turkey, from thawing the bird which hopefully, you have already done -- it's pretty close to dinner now -- to roasting it and, of course, stuffing it. We do have the expert on hand to make Thanksgiving a meal for the books.

COSTELLO: And when Joe says "the expert," he means the expert.

JOHNS: She's got it all down pat.

COSTELLO: Exactly. There she is, Carol Miller, she's one of the supervisors at the Butterball Turkey talk line. You can with your problems -- well, if the problems about turkey anyway.

JOHNS: Turkey counseling.

COSTELLO: Only turkey counseling.

JOHNS: As long as you're not the turkey. I'm sorry.

COSTELLO: CNN.com/amFIX. Slap your questions on our blog. You can also use twitter and Facebook and we will pose your questions to Carol.

JOHNS: Oh, I can't wait. I saw her basting there.

COSTELLO: I can almost smell it, can't you? Before the turkey before the football, there's that other Thanksgiving tradition. Jason Carroll is live at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade in New York. You have warmed up yet?

JASON CARROLL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, a little bit. I'm getting there. I'm getting there.

We're all talking turkey, except I'm talking tom the turkey. He's lined up there getting ready to go. The people are lined up, getting ready to take their seats as the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade is about to get under way.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: I can't wait until you start roasting your turkey.

JOHNS: Or maybe some marshmallows or maybe not.

COSTELLO: Maybe not, yes.

JOHNS: The radiation emanating from the TV screen.

COSTELLO: Oh, yes. It's worse than those full-body scanners.

Only one holiday event is big enough to bring Santa Claus, Kanye West, and Kung Fu Panda together. That would be the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade.

JOHNS: And we're less than two hours away from the start near New York's Central Park. Then it's through Times Square to the store's famed flagship on 34th Street. Boy, there's a lot of F's in there.

COSTELLO: But you did it with aplomb. Those giant legendary balloons, they're all blown up and ready to go. All the classic characters are back with some brand-new editions this year. Jason Carroll is live in the middle of all the fun. And Kung Fu Panda, one of the new ones this year?

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" another one of the new ones this year. But you know what, one thing you can count on every year, it's the people who come out. We've got Fort Wayne, Indiana, here. I'm giving props to Fort Wayne because she offered up some of her marble cake.

Also, we've got England over here. We also have -- where?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Arizona.

CARROLL: Arizona. Baltimore, we've got here as well. People from all over. From where? Oregon. Thank you, Oregon. Welcome, Oregon.

But I want to get down to the folks here from Long Island and some of the kids down here. Hey, guys, how's it going? We were talking about "Diary of a Wimpy Kid." UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

CARROLL: That's one of the balloons that you're looking forward to seeing. How about some others?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Snoopy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Shrek.

CARROLL: Snoopy is one of my favorites. How about you?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Kung Fu Panda.

CARROLL: Kung Fu Panda. Carol, Joe, that's another new addition to the parade this year. Kung Fu Panda, another one.

I'm sorry, I cut you off, what did you say?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I said Snoopy. That's one of favorites.

CARROLL: One of my favorites as well. Now, you guys have been out here since 4:30 in the morning.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, yes.

CARROLL: And how many years have you come out to the parade?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: About 10.

CARROLL: Ten years. That's dedication.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, yes.

CARROLL: He doesn't even look 10 years old.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's been coming since he's been in a stroller.

CARROLL: And you know, that's what it's really all about, the folks who come out here -- they come out here every time. I'm sorry, you want to say what about Alabama?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Go Eagles.

CARROLL: Terrific.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go Jack.

CARROLL: You've got Sydney back there. You've got kids from all over the place. That's what it's really all about. We're still two hours away. And they're ready for things to start -- Joe, Carol.

COSTELLO: Wow, they don't even look cold.

JOHNS: It's not that bad out there, is it?

CARROLL: No. Are you kidding? With all this energy, they're not cold.

COSTELLO: They're probably gathered in that massive crowd. Thank you, Jason. That was really fun. Happy Thanksgiving.

If you're camped out in the kitchen getting your bird ready to roast, we have a very special guest joining us. And she is prepared to answer all of your tough turkey questions. Yes, the Butterball Turkey lady. Carol Miller will be with us.

JOHNS: Wow. How did it just turn like that so quickly?

COSTELLO: Oh, can I have that?

JOHNS: I know, it's beautiful.

COSTELLO: Oh, we'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JOHNS: It is early, but you're probably already cooking for the family. Unfortunately, more than one Thanksgiving meal has been ruined because a bird didn't defrost in time. Or you forgot to take the bag out. Or you forgot to turn on the oven. Or you've turned on the oven too high.

COSTELLO: I have done all of those.

JOHNS: Yes.

COSTELLO: That's why I don't cook turkey anymore. But fortunately, Butterball Turkey talk line's Carol Miller is joining us from the company headquarters in Naperville, Illinois, and she's going to give us all the tricks to making this perfect bird even at this last hour.

JOHNS: Yes. Yes.

COSTELLO: Carol Miller, thank you for joining us this morning. We really appreciate it.

JOHNS: You're our only hope.

CAROL MILLER, BUTTERBALL TURKEY TALK-LINE SUPERVISOR: Thank you. Well, I have 50 people behind me. They're going to be in this room today that will also be answering the kinds of calls that you just mentioned. They left in the giblets. They've put it in the oven overnight and forgot to turn on the oven. So these ladies are addressing those issues as we speak.

COSTELLO: OK. So we asked our viewers to send us questions for you. And I'm going to read you the first one.

So this is from Mike. He says, what is the best way to get the skin crispy in the oven?

MILLER: You know what? We just recommend roasting it in an open shallow pan like this when there's a rack on the bottom of the pan, that way, the air circulates all around the turkey. Just roast it at 325. You can brush on a little bit of oil. That helps it to brown up a little bit. Slide it into the oven. And actually, there's only two other things that you have to do. One is you want to tent the bird after it gets that nice beautiful color. Just use the piece of Reynolds wrap. Pop it over the top of the turkey. The legs and the thighs take a little longer to cook so you want to make sure that you protect the breast so it's moist, juicy and tender. Then the only other thing you really have to do is to test that it's done. And you want to put that deep in the inner thigh. You're looking for a temperature of 180. At that point, it should be brown. It should be done. Let it seat for 15 minutes and then you're ready to enjoy it.

JOHNS: All right. So Sam says he's been told many times not to cook the stuffing in the turkey for health reasons. Is it for health reasons that you don't cook the stuffing in the turkey? Or it just because it tastes better?

MILLER: You know, it does taste better in the turkey. And if your family tradition is to have a stuffed turkey, don't stuff it the night before. Just put it in right before you put it in the oven.

Again, we're back to that meat thermometer, 165 in the center of the stuffing before you take the turkey out of the oven. If you've got raw ingredients that you might have in your family recipe, you might want to cook those ahead of time.

JOHNS: Right.

MILLER: But otherwise, it's perfectly safe. Go ahead and enjoy it.

JOHNS: OK. So just to unravel that though, it's OK to cook the stuffing in the turkey. It's just -- don't put it in there until you're putting the whole thing in the oven.

MILLER: That's right. Not the night before. And then don't take it out of the oven, the stuffing and the turkey, until you reach 165 in the very center of the stuffing. And then it's perfectly fine.

COSTELLO: Of course, if you've already done it --

JOHNS: Yes, then what do you do?

COSTELLO: You stuffed that turkey last night and you're thinking yourself, oh, my gosh, what do you do, Carol?

MILLER: Well, you -- you know, what you would really want to do is make sure you have a meat thermometer that works. And don't, you know, really make sure you get it to 165. And then next year, just don't do that. Stuff it in the morning.

JOHNS: My big problem is that whenever I make a turkey, I'm always afraid it's going to come out really dry and not moist. I mean, that's the biggest problem, that it just is too dry, especially the white meat. MILLER: Right. And you do want that moist, juicy tender turkey on the table. So, again, testing it with the foil, sometimes people look at the cooking chart and the chart says it should cook in about 3 to 3 1/2 hours and they say, oh, what the heck, I'll give it another hour. Well, don't do that. You know, I even suggest that you test the turkey early, you know, that says it should be done in 3 1/2 hours. Test it at 3 hours. Because my motto is you can keep cooking. You cannot uncook.

COSTELLO: That's very true. OK. I know we talked a little bit about the foil. But Diana wants to know specifically when do you put that foil on it? What point in the cooking process?

MILLER: Yes. Normally, it is about two thirds of the cooking time. So, you know, if you do the math, if the turkey is going to be in the oven for three hours, you put it on at about two hours. And it really does slow down -- you know, the turkey has white meat and it has dark meat. And the white meat just as better at a higher or lower temperature at 170. So nobody wants an undercooked turkey thigh. It's bouncy and red. And it's kind of chewy.

JOHNS: Right.

MILLER: So that it comes out perfect, you know, do tend to --

JOHNS: So basting, though, are there any rules on basting?

MILLER: You know what, the skin of the turkey, it's actually like a raincoat, and if you pour things on it, it kind of rolls back down in the pan. So basting is one of those things if it's a tradition, go ahead and baste, because tradition is important on Thanksgiving. But it really doesn't go down deep into the turkey. So, yes, you can baste. Initially, you know, brush it, do your initial basting. But after that, you know, hold back on doing it every 10 minutes because it's going to take your turkey forever to cook.

COSTELLO: Oh, yes, because the heat will escape the oven. Carol Miller, thank you so much for joining us. You've been very helpful this morning.

If you have more questions for Carol, call the Butterball Turkey line. And I think we had it up on the screen there. There it is. Or I guess we have a Facebook page this year, too.

JOHNS: Yes. It's all good. There we go, 1-800-butterball.

COSTELLO: Yes, that was hard to remember. Sorry.

JOHNS: It's early, though. All right.

Once you polish off the turkey and the stuffing, it is time to shop. But can we expect the crowds, packed parking lots and long lines this year?

COSTELLO: And from here to Afghanistan, American troops mark the Thanksgiving holiday far from family and friends at home. Nic Robertson reports from the front lines in Afghanistan. That's just ahead.

It's 26 minutes past the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: We're just crossing the half hour at 7:29 Eastern. Happy Thanksgiving. Time for this morning's top stories.

The White House stepping up pressure on China to help reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Right now, administration officials say the president hopes to call Chinese President Hu Jintao in the next few days. China is North Korea's biggest ally. This morning, Beijing said it's committed to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

JOHNS: If you're not where you want to be right now, good luck. Wet, stormy weather from coast to coast could make holiday travel a mess today. Freezing rain, snow and sleet coated highways in the Midwest. The result, dozens of accidents and the Des Moines, Iowa area on up to the Minnesota border.

COSTELLO: The big balloons are all filled up. The marching bands are tuning up. A live look at New York where the annual Thanksgiving day parade gets under way in less than two hours from now. Three million people will line the streets to see it in person. Almost 50 million more will watch at home while they stuff the turkey.

JOHNS: One of the many things to be thankful for this morning. The service of our military men and women. American soldiers a world away in Iraq and Afghanistan are getting a taste of Thanksgiving and sending their best to loved ones here at home.

COSTELLO: Our senior international correspondent Nic Robertson is embedded with a unit on a remote base in Afghanistan.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is combat outpost (INAUDIBLE) in the Arghandab Valley, just outside of Kandahar. And this is a key part of the strategic search to improve security around Kandahar, control the districts around the city to build up governance inside the city of Kandahar. And the troops behind me are Task Force I-66.

They're in the Arghandab Valley. They've been in here for about four months now. They're seeing a lot of progress on the ground. Taking away the initiative from the Taliban. The Taliban are still out there. No easy posting out here however.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (voice-over): It's Thanksgiving, soldiers far from home.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I guess I like to say hi to my parents in Louisville, Kentucky. PFC. JACOB HAWKINS, TASK FORCE 1-66: I would like to say hi to my parents and my little brother Ethan and Hanna. Of course my girlfriend, Heidi. She's at school right now. But I want to say that I love them and I miss them.

ROBERTSON: Messages from Arghandab Valley in Kandahar, no easy assignment.

LT. COL. RODGER LEMONS, BATTALION CMDR., TASK FORCE 1-66: That's the helicopter landing zone right there. And literally, we had a rocket come within 50 meters and hit the aircraft.

ROBERTSON: Better now but dense orchards made a Taliban stronghold.

LEMONS: The first month we were here, typically, we saw about 50 attacks a week in the battalion's area of operation. That's everything from IEDs to direct fire engagements.

SSG. LIZABETH GARCIA, TASK FORCE 1-66: Yes, I want to say hi to my family. I want to say hi to my husband and to my two kids. My sister, everybody over there. I just want to say thank you for your prayers. We're doing well. It's kind of rough up here but we're making it.

ROBERTSON: Families will be missed but not the turkey. That's Garcia's responsibility.

GARCIA: It's going to be great. We're going to have four different eats. We're going to have turkey. We're going to have ham, shrimp.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: According to regulations and the uniform code of the military justice.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So help me god?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So help me god.

(APPLAUSE)

ROBERTSON: Spirits raised, too. Awards for combat bravery. A soldier who saved a child. Three others who dove into freezing water to rescue injured buddies.

(on camera): The meaning of medal pinning ceremonies like this can't be underestimated. Morale is key to keeping troops motivated. This battalion has had six soldiers killed, eight have lost limbs. 48 Purple Hearts have been awarded for injuries during combat. One year, it almost had 30 percent casualties.

SPC. MATT GRAY, TASK FORCE 1-66: I'd like to say hello to my wife, Tabitha and my son, Hunter. See you soon.

SGT. MARTIN ELIZONDO, TASK FORCE 1-66: Mom, dad, my sister, Rachel, Carla. Just hope everything is well back home. And look forward to seeing you soon.

ROBERTSON (voice-over): They won't be home until July next year. Families missed, so, too, fallen comrades.

LEMONS: I think about that a lot. The sacrifices that the soldiers have made. And I always look for ways to make sure that we continue to move forward and we take the gains that we've made because of their sacrifices and make it just that much better.

ROBERTSON: Much to give thanks for, and much work still to do.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON: We've been touring the combat outposts in the area of operation here today with Colonel Roger Lemons. It is a day of - a work day for everyone here, of course. Thanksgiving, everyone knows that they're going to get something a little extra to eat.

You heard there in the story, turkey, ham, shrimp, even on some of the smaller outposts like this, it's still a day where soldiers are going to get something a little extra but at the same time, you've got guys in the guard posts right here. The Taliban are out there. They're not taking the day off. So it's a day in the field here. A little better than some. But still a job to be done.

And I just want to thank the guys behind me here from the task force 1-66 to give you their thank you, their words from here at Camp (INAUDIBLE).

MARTIN KELLY, 1-66: (INAUDIBLE) Major Martin Kelly, on behalf of all of the soldiers on the task force 1-66, we'd like to wish everybody back at in (INAUDIBLE) Colorado a happy -

ALL: Thanksgiving!

ROBERTSON: There you go, you've got it right out here in the Arghandab Valley. Morale is high. The troops feel good. It's Thanksgiving. Everyone's going to get turkey back home.

In a few minutes, these guys are going to get theirs as well. Back to you.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

JOHNS: Wow, that's awesome.

COSTELLO: That's really awesome. Happy Thanksgiving there. I know you can hear us in Afghanistan. So, happy thanksgiving. We appreciate your service so much. Thank you.

JOHNS: Absolutely.

And after two years of socks, pajamas, basics all kinds of things that people have been getting during the holidays for gifts, there's a possibility now that it's all going to ramp up just a bit. People are wanting iPads and laptops.

COSTELLO: Yes, if you can afford them.

JOHNS: Right. But the commercial spirit of Christmas or the holidays, Hanukkah as well. What to expect on Black Friday, coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(MUSIC PLAYING)

JOHNS: While some of you are busy at home, preparing that Thanksgiving feast, others are resting up for a day of shopping. But with the economy front and center, what can we expect this year?

COSTELLO: Well, Marshal Cohen is a retail analyst with the NPD group and he's also author of the book "Buy Me." Thanks, Marshal, for coming in on Thanksgiving. We sure appreciate it.

OK. So maybe people are more in the mood to shop this year than they were last year and the year before. So could this shopping season, I guess, like jump-start our economy?

MARSHAL COHEN, CHIEF INDUSTRY ANALYST, THE NPD GROUP, INC.: Well, definitely, the consumer is going to help to get the economy moving. The real challenge will be, have retailers created enough newness and excitement in product along with the manufacturers to get the consumers to say I'm not going to just buy what's on the list, I'm also going to buy what's not on the list for people who aren't on the list or buy for yourselves. That's what drives a good holiday season. That impulse purchase.

JOHNS: I haven't seen a lot of things out there that everybody just has to have. There's been some talk about the iPad. But even that is incredibly expensive.

COHEN: It's very expensive. You know, the great gifts now for the last few years have been expensive gifts. So it's really an interesting dynamic. Because that means you're maybe going to get that gift. But you're only going to get that gift and a lot of other nifty, gifty trinkets. So it's not like you're getting a lot of things if you get one of those expensive gifts.

The real challenge this year is that everything that the consumer says they want or desire to have is the same things that were around last year. The iPad was big last year, digital readers were around last year. Kids are telling us the number one thing that kids ask for this holiday season is an upgraded cell phone. So it's not like the cell phone -

COSTELLO: Not "Tickle Me Elmo"?

COHEN: There are few hot dolls out there.

(CROSSTALK)

JOHNS: It's the iPhone they want.

COHEN: They want Smartphones. That's what's amazing. Kids as early as eight and nine are asking for these Smartphones because they want to be able to text on the keypad. So it's really an interesting dynamic at play here. So the retailers have said, all right, we don't have the product to really go out and get the consumer excited. So we're going to use price as the lure.

COSTELLO: Well, another thing that they're trying do, some stores, like Sears, and Toys "R" us are actually opening up today. So after you're stuffed with turkey, you can roll out of your house and go shopping. That's crazy.

COHEN: Before, it used to be that this is the day that I would be able to speak with you and then go home and have the turkey and relax for a day. And then go out and do the non-stop three-day shopping marathon with the consumers doing any of this.

This year, I had to move family Thanksgiving to Sunday because I have to be in stores today. I choose to be in stores with the consumers starting today. and it's really about we're seeing new traditions being born right in front of our eyes. Retailers are racing for space. They want to beat the competition to the punch. And now consider the fact that online and even network shopping has become more important and more available to the consumer. The retailers are saying we have to be open almost 24/7 ourselves.

JOHNS: So black Friday really isn't the big shopping day of the year it used to be?

COHEN: You know, it's going to be very busy. Consumers are always looking for everything to do after you spent three, four hours preparing the meal and spending 20 minutes eating the meal. You know, and now what do we do? So they'll like to go out either the movies or go shopping if they're not into watching football and all that.

So it's really about recognizing that shopping is going to be busy but it's the purchasing, the conversion rate. Will the shoppers actually make the purchases? Will they be buying the products that they see? This year, a lot of consumers are saying they're going to be doing what I call pre-search. Going out looking. Helping to decide, what it is that they're going to get for the people on their list. They may not necessarily buy it, because they know that a lot of these products are going to be available at other stores or the same stores for the following weeks up through Christmas.

COSTELLO: Well, it's fascinating to me that stores would open on Thanksgiving day. I mean, you would think that more people would shop online and so they won't have to deal with the crowds. But that's not really happening, or is it?

COHEN: Part of the fun is the actual experience of getting something, you know, the treasure hunt issue. Or fighting the crowds and being a part of it. The other big part of it is, is this really what's going to drive business? We have to read these numbers very carefully because we're going to get an early surge this year with all of the sales that have been put in front of the customer. Then we go into a two-week lull. And a lot of retailers get very nervous because it feels like what happened to all that Christmas rush.

And then it all comes back at the very end, the last-minute. Charlie all comes out at the very end of the season. So this year, it looks like the highs are going to be earlier. And the lows are going to be deeper and in that mad rush (INAUDIBLE).

JOHNS: The stores are also starting to use social media and the apps on their iPhones or whatever to try to get people in the stores. And this just sort of seems like a response to internet shopping.

COHEN: Exactly right. And you know, it's really true, the retailers have tried to be very creative to figure out how are they going to get the consumer to come in, to shop at their store versus someone else's. So the apps really have become the new way for them to compete with the online merchants and/or drive their online customer into the store.

Because remember online, you tend to buy what you're surfing for. But in store, you tend to buy all of these other great little things. Wow, this is a really good deal, maybe I should buy an extra one for myself. So impulse which is such a critical part of growth for holiday is all about driving the consumer into the store. That's why they're willing to do these lost leaders to get the door buster deals in so the consumer gets caught up in the frenzy of it. So shaping is a very psychological process. COSTELLO: We understand you're going to be in stores because you told us a little bit about it. But then you're going to be back on Monday on AMERICAN MORNING to tell us what you found out.

So, what sorts of things will you be looking for?

COHEN: What I'm looking for is the number of people that are looking for what gifts, are they in the buying mood or they just in the shopping mood? I also do shopping by accounts (ph). It sounds kind of crazy and a little bit, you know, backward. But the number of people is something that we always hear about how crowded the stores were, but did they actually buy, that's the real key.

And then, of course, I'll share what it is that they're buying and where the great deals are.

COSTELLO: Excellent. So, we can't wait until back on Monday and thank you for coming in on Thanksgiving.

COHEN: My pleasure.

JOHNS: All right. Thanks, Marshal.

Now, a Thanksgiving storm is soaking the Midwest. Wintry mix headed in the Northeast. Oh, Reynolds Wolf, are you out there now? You have the holiday travel forecast coming up next.

COSTELLO: Yes. Coming up, he'll be after the break, and tell you all the good news about the weather, right? JOHNS: I guess.

COSTELLO: It's 45 minutes past the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(MUSIC)

COSTELLO: Well, all those happy people. Happy Thanksgiving back to you. They're all waiting for the Big Macy's Day parade to happen. It might be 38 degrees, but shouldn't (INAUDIBLE) people are coming together and just excitement and the big balloons coming down Seventh Avenue, keeping them warm this morning.

JOHNS: As far as I know, the rain is going to hold off, at least through the parade.

Reynolds Wolf is in the extreme weather center.

Hey, Reynolds, looking good for New York at least during the morning?

REYNOLDS WOLF, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Absolutely. I think they're going to be OK for the parade. You might have a gust or two that might get kind of strong. But in terms of the heavy precipitation, much of that is going to be forming farther out towards the west and also to the north. The crowd -- the shot of the crowd was really wonderful. They're going to have a great time out there.

But I'm telling you -- in days to come, we got this to deal with: the winter storm watch is going to be in effect for parts of New England. Through noon on Friday, a light ice and snow mix. Some places could see about a quarter of an inch of snow. The ice is really going to be the big trouble that you might have issues in terms of power outages, that kind of thing.

Also out towards Buffalo, New York, I would not be surprised if between now and I would say into midday on Friday, if some spots in Buffalo have up to, I'd say, close to a foot of snowfall. So, it's just getting underway. And keep in mind, winter does not officially begun until December 21st. So, we still got a ways to go.

But don't tell Mother Nature that. There's still a chance we might have some winter-like weather in parts of the Midwest and also into the Mississippi Valley, from Memphis to Paducah, back to Springfield. Light ice snow mix through Friday morning.

Here's the big weather maker -- again, area of low pressure up near the U.S.-Canadian border and the Arrowhead of Minnesota, clear down, right near places like Detroit, you have another low. There's your frontal boundary. All of this just sweeping off to the east and right ahead of it, you got the showers, and the storms, the thunderstorms and also the driving snowfall.

Back out towards the west, we're going to have some really chilly conditions. In fact, some places well below the freezing point in terms of your highs today. Billings, Montana, with 18 degrees, 24 in Salt Lake City, 33 in Denver, that's the high. Right now, obviously, cooler than that. Fourteen in Minneapolis, 38 in Chicago, 42 in St. Louis, 66 in Dallas.

Now, there's still some people out and about that have not made it home yet. There are travelers out there. These travelers may have some issues in places like Philadelphia, Charlotte, Atlanta, due to scattered showers and storms. And of course, in Philadelphia, that wintry mix. In Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, rain and low clouds could you give anywhere from a 30-minute delay to about an hour.

Same deal in Chicago with Memphis. Seattle, some light snow fall up in parts of, say, into portions of the mountains but obviously down near places closer to the shore. Expect some of that rain to stick around through a good part of the day. That's why they got coffee. Drink some of it. It will be great for you.

Also, great football again today. Let's see, Detroit -- who's Detroit play again, guys?

COSTELLO: Hey, hey, hey! New England. It could be the upset of the century, Mister.

(CROSSTALK)

WOLF: I have something for you. You guys are going to love this. Jack Lowe (ph), our photojournalist here today, gave me a great a little tidbit about the Detroit Lions. Do you know that Detroit Lions, since 1958, have built more stadiums than they have playoff wins?

COSTELLO: They only built two stadiums. You realize that.

(LAUGHTER)

WOLF: Ugh. Is that awful?

JOHNS: So mean.

COSTELLO: It is awful. You know, there's a prayer vigil going on at Ford Field in Detroit.

JOHNS: Candles and everything.

COSTELLO: There's a Baptist church in Detroit, the pastor is going there. They're going to link hands around the stadium and pray for the Detroit Lions to win today.

WOLF: Whatever works. Whatever works. They need every bit they can possible get.

COSTELLO: I plan to go back to my hotel and join hands with my husband and pray.

JOHNS: And maybe Tom Brady will just stay home.

(LAUGHTER)

COSTELLO: This morning's stop stories just minutes away including security measure, could soon become the thing of the past. You know what I'm talking about.

Did you ever get what that meant anyway? Color coded terrorism alert system could soon be a thing of the past.

JOHNS: Yes. Hanging chads, 9/11, the economic meltdown -- just a few of the biggest stories of the past decade. We'll take a look at what else made the list.

COSTELLO: And one year later, Tiger. Tiger Woods, not out of the woods just yet. Poor Tiger.

JOHNS: I know. You know, he just doesn't have his mojo back I don't think.

COSTELLO: You know, but he's trying. He's writing all this stuff in "Newsweek" magazine. And will he recover? That's the big question this morning --

JOHNS: He'll be back.

COSTELLO: -- for the entire year of 2011.

We'll have those stories and much more at the top of the hour.

JOHNS: He'll be back.

COSTELLO: Yes.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JOHNS: It's the perfect way to spend your post-meal evening tonight. "CNN HEROES: AN ALL-STAR TRIBUTE" airs at 8:00 right here on CNN.

COSTELLO: Fourth time we've done it, the fourth year. Taped before an audience of nearly 5,000 at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles. The show will open with a salute to the 33 Chilean miners and five of the people that rescued last month after those miners spent, what, 69 days underground.

JOHNS: Now, we want to give you a preview of one of the remarkable people being honored.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

HILL HARPER, CNN HEROES 2010 BLUE RIBBON PANELIST: Hi, I'm Hill Harper. Having previously attended "CNN HEROES: AN ALL-STAR TRIBUTE," I was honored to serve as a 2010 blue ribbon panelist and help choose this year's top 10. Through my foundation, Manifest Your Destiny, I'm personally committed to making a difference in the lives of young people and I see just how much the world needs heroes.

Now, I'm thrilled to help CNN introduce one of this year's top 10 honorees.

AKI RA, COMMUNITY ORGANIZER (through translator): My name is Aki Ra. When I was 10 years old, the Khmer Rouge chose me to be a soldier. Sometimes in the week, we were ordered to plant 4,000 to 5,000 mines.

I saw a lot of people dying. I put people in danger and damaged the country. After the war was over, I decided to clear mines by myself.

Now, people have joined me. Now, it's safe. The villagers are requesting us to demine because the people are afraid of mines.

I have done a lot of good things different than during the war. I have cleared thousands of mines. I want Cambodia to be safe.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: You'll see all the stories of all 10 nominees at tonight's big show, "CNN HEROES: AN ALL-STAR TRIBUTE" kicks off at 8:00 Eastern, right here on CNN. So, gather around the TV set tonight. Have (ph) your full of turkey and watch CNN Heroes.

JOHNS: Absolutely. Top stories are coming right up right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)