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American Morning

Amanda Knox Awaits Italian Jury's Decision; Hundreds of Wall Street protesters arrested; Chris Christie may be Reconsidering a Run for President; Sesame Street Brought To You by STEM; Jury Deliberating Knox's Fate; D.C. "Jihad" Terror Plot; Planes Rocked by Turbulence; Hurricane Ophelia Threatens NewFoundLand; Will Chris Christie Run?; Is Double Dip Recession Coming?; Not All Children Getting Vaccinated in U.S.; Jury Deliberates Amanda Knox Case

Aired October 03, 2011 - 06:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR: Amanda Knox verdict watch. The American student and convicted killer make one final personal plea for her freedom this morning. Could she be sent home today?

(CHANTING)

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Clash on the Brooklyn Bridge. More than 700 arrested. Wall Street protesters saying they have the money, but we have the numbers.

VELSHI: Race and the race. Rick Perry now on defensive for taking his family to a hunting ground that has the N word in its name.

COSTELLO: And guess who might be coming to the party? Lots of chatter that Chris Christie, after all of those denials, may enter the race, Why is he going to have to really hit the ground running on this AMERICAN MORNING.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VELSHI: Good morning. It is Monday, October the 3rd. Christine is off today. Welcome to AMERICAN MORNING.

COSTELLO: Up first this morning, Amanda Knox waiting anxiously this hour to find out whether she will be set free or she'll be going back to prison. The American student is hoping her murder conviction will be overturned on appeal. She made her case to jurors this morning. Now, it's nail-biting high-stakes waiting game.

Here's part of what she tearfully told the court, quote, "The accusations are completely unjust and without any foundation. I am paying with my life for a crime I did not commit." Matthew Chance joins us live from Perugia, Italy. Matthew, tell us more about what Amanda Knox said.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Carol, it was a very emotional speech, indeed. The speech of her life, as we said, you know, the opportunity she had to stand up in front of this court in Perugia to address the judges and the jury and make that personal appeal, in her own words, for her release saying that she was not guilty of killing Meredith Kercher, and that she was being held unjustifiably inside the court.

It was a very emotional speech indeed. She'd spent months, according to her parents, deciding what she would say and how she would say it. She spoke in fluent Italian, but at times could not hold back the tears. At one point the judge said she could sit down, but she didn't. She kept herself together and kept composed and delivered her plea of innocence. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AMANDA KNOX, CONVICTED OF MEREDITH KERCHER'S MURDER (via translator): I am not what they say I am. Perversity, violence -- I respect life and people, and I haven't done the things that they are suggesting that I've done. I haven't murdered. I haven't raped. I haven't stolen. I wasn't there. I wasn't present in that crime.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHANCE: Amanda Knox speaking there in court, giving that heartfelt appeal. The jury has now retired to the court. Amanda Knox and her former boyfriend, who also spoke, have been taken back to prison while the jury deliberates. We're expecting a verdict not before 8:00 local time, which is about 2:00 p.m. eastern time. And so we have some hours before the jury is expected to come back and decide on Amanda Knox' fate. Carol?

COSTELLO: Matthew chance reporting live from Perugia, Italy. Ali?

VELSHI: All right, Carol. There are subtle differences between the appeals process in Italy and here in the United States. There are several options available to the Amanda Knox jury, which, by the way, has laypeople on it and a couple of judges. And their options are up to and including a complete acquittal. But there are a lot of ways they can go in the middle.

Let's bring in CNN's legal contributor Paul Callan to talk about that and the possible outcomes for Amanda Knox this morning. What is the -- what are the range of outcomes?

PAUL CALLAN, CNN LEGAL CONTRIBUTOR: As you indicated, lots of options here. They could release her, find in her favor and acquittal. They also could reduce the charges against her and give her a reduced sentence. For instance, Rudy Guede, who was actually convicted of the killing, originally sentenced to over 20 years in prison, reduced to 16 years by the appellate court. That's something that could be done here as well.

VELSHI: Is there any sense having watched how the trial has gone on, what a likely outcome would be? Or is it like a typical trial where you don't know? CALLAN: Boy, it's a roll of dice. I think lawyers who have carefully looked at the evidence have said where is the case? It's pretty much fallen apart. Hellman, the chief judge on the panel, ordered a reanalysis of the DNA, which was the real evidence against him, and his experts said no case. You can't rely on that DNA evidence.

On the other hand, Italian honor may be at stake. The Italian justice system is being closely watched by the world.

VELSHI: And has been criticized because of this case.

CALLAN: Yes, it has. And, of course, if there's an American student involved, and there's American criticism of Italy and there might be ruffled feathers on that. So people worry that the political atmosphere could affect the verdict.

VELSHI: Whatever happens today, she convicted. Do they have to overturn that? Do they have reinstate her guilt if they say these guilty? An appeal, normally the prior court decision is upheld. How does it work here?

CALLAN: Here if they overturn the prior conviction, she will go back to prison do paperwork and can be put on a plane right back to the United States. She'll be free to go.

Now, the prosecutor could appeal to the Italian Supreme Court, and then they would try to extradite her back to Italy if the Italian Supreme Court, once again, upheld the conviction. But this will be a great day for Amanda Knox if this court acquits her, because she can leave. She won't be stuck in Italy, except for one thing. There is a criminal slander case that has been brought against her.

VELSHI: A separate civil case?

CALLAN: Criminal slander is the charge in that civil case. It's very complicated with respect to the Italians. Bottom line is this -- the Kerchers are suing for wrongful death, they've recovered money damages. A guy Lumumba that she said was involved, he's suing in a civil case, and the police are suing her because she criticized the interrogation. Maybe could be held on incrimination of the police. Nobody thinks that will happen, but it's a theoretical possibility.

VELSHI: What is the likelihood for U.S. official involvement in this if she's not released?

CALLAN: I think for the first time the American public is getting really focused on this case, an innocent American college student going over to do her year abroad and getting tied up in this horrible nightmare. So will American public opinion force the president to make inquiries? I really don't know. It's very unusual to see two western countries, the U.S. and Italy, for instance, criticizing each other the criminal justice system. So it remains to be seen if diplomatic efforts will are made on her behalf.

VELSHI: We're still about seven hours away possibly from a verdict. We don't know when, but that's the time the judge has said it may happen, about 2:00 eastern our time. Paul, you'll stay with us.

CALLAN: Nice being with you.

VELSHI: Paul Callan. Carol?

COSTELLO: Week two of testimony begins in the trial of Dr. Conrad Murray, Michael Jackson's former doctor. He's facing an uphill battle because in week one paramedics and doctors who saw the king of pop on the day he died testified Dr. Murray failed to tell him Jackson had the drug Propofol in his system. This morning jurors are expected to hear from two emergency room doctors who tried to bring Michael Jackson back to life before declaring him dead.

And a Massachusetts man accused of plotting attacks on the Pentagon in the U.S. capital will be in court later today in Boston. Authorities say 26-year-old Rezwan Ferdaus planned to attack the targets using remote control model aircraft filled with C-4 explosives.

VELSHI: Well, it looks like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie had has a change of heart and is now seriously considering a run for the White House. According to the "New York Times" Christie advisers are trying to determine whether there's enough time to set up operations in Iowa and New Hampshire and to mount an effective campaign. Now, if Christie decides to jump in, fellow Republican John McCain is offering up a little advice.

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SEN. JOHN MCCAIN, (R) ARIZONA: If Governor Christie decides to run, I wish him luck. I think that there is a bit of a caution. The swimming pool looks a lot better until you jump right in. The water may not be quite as warm as you think.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VELSHI: McCain went on to say that if Christie does enter the race he'll in be a serious disadvantage because of his late start with fundraising and campaign organizing.

Now, in 20 minutes we'll get the inside story on governor Christie when we're joined by "New York Times" reporter David Halbfinger, and later at 8:10 we'll be joined by Arizona Senator John McCain. We'll ask him more about Christie's chances if the New Jersey governor gets in at this late stage of the race.

COSTELLO: In the meantime, a racially charged controversy has engulfed GOP candidate Rick Perry. It involving a Texas hunting camp he and his family leased in Texas in the early '80s that carried the "N" word in his name, the name, "N-word-head" was painted on a rock at the camp's entrance. The Perry campaign says it was painted over quickly, but according to "Washington Post" visitors say it was still visible years later. VELSHI: The Supreme Court gets getting down to business today when the new term begins. Analysts say the justices will almost certainly take up President Obama's health care reform with a decision on its constitutionality expected months before the presidential election. Other high-profile cases on the docket deal with an immigration and affirmative action.

COSTELLO: Still to come this morning, two planes rocked by severe turbulence. Nearly two dozen passengers hurt. We'll have the frightening details.

VELSHI: Plus hundreds of Wall Street protestors arrested. Police are cracking down. But the movement is spreading. We'll tell you more about that.

COSTELLO: And Andy Rooney signing off for the final time last night on "60 Minutes." Did you hear how he said goodbye? You will.

You're watching AMERICAN MORNING. It's eight minutes past the hour.

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VELSHI: The protesters on Wall Street vowed that they are in it for the long haul, but we're not entirely clear what the long haul means to them because the whole message is a little unclear. Even after more than 700 people were arrested over the weekend for blocking traffic on New York's Brooklyn Bridge, the protesters claim they were lured onto the bridge by officers who said they could use the roadway. But the NYPD released a video overnight showing police using a bull horn to tell the crowds to leave the roadway or they'll face charges.

COSTELLO: Severe turbulence blamed for nearly two dozen injuries in two separate flights, both landing in Boston. Seven people were hurt aboard a JetBlue flight, and the other involving a Luftstanza plane en route to Munich from Charlotte, North Carolina. Turbulence forced the flight to be diverted to Boston.

VELSHI: Weather permitting, an elite team of engineers will be repelling down the Washington Monument again this morning inspecting for earthquake damage. The operation was halted over the weekend because of high winds which blew one rappelling worker 30 feet away from the tower. Engineers are assessing damage to the monument's exterior after that 5.8 magnitude earthquake in August.

COSTELLO: The weather didn't affect the Tigers' play at all yesterday. In fact, Rob, I think the Tigers beat the Yankees.

VELSHI: Rob, we're going to be hearing about this. The Yankees, they're getting off to a slow start.

ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: The Tigers certainly prayed to the rain gods late in the game to try to get this thing called early. Either way, they won it fair and square, and that will be the last one.

(LAUGHTER)

(WEATHER BREAK)

COSTELLO: Now's your chance to "Talk back" on one of the big stories of the day. The question for you this morning, should the United States have targeted Anwar al-Awlaki despite his American citizenship?

President Obama is two for two. First he got Osama Bin Laden, now Anwar al-Awlaki, arguably our most wanted terrorists.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: A role he took the lead in planning and directing efforts to murder innocent Americans. He repeatedly called on individuals in the United States and around the globe to kill innocent men, women and children to advance a murderous agenda.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Another American al Qaeda collaborator was killed in the Awlaki operation. What a relief, right? But not for everybody.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. RON PAUL (R), TEXAS: If the American people accept this blindly and casually, we now have an accepted practice of the president assassinating people who he thinks are bad guys. I think it's sad.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Yes. They were bad guys, really bad guys. Still, some say that is no excuse for basically murder.

The American Civil Liberties Union, which once accused Obama of morphing into Bush says, quote, "The targeted killing program violates both U.S. and international law. It is a mistake to invest the president, any president, with the unreviewable power to kill any American whom he deems to present a threat to country."

Although former Vice President Dick Cheney disagrees. He praised the Obama administration for targeting al-Awlaki and says President Obama should now apologize for his veiled criticism of the Bush administration's enhanced interrogations. Cheney added in essence sometimes you've got to do what you've got to do.

So the "Talk Back" question today, should the United States have targeted Anwar al-Awlaki despite his American citizenship? Facebook.com/AmericanMorning, Facebook.com/AmericanMorning. I'll read your comments later this hour.

VELSHI: All right. It's an end of an era at CBS News, Andy Rooney, the network's curmudgeon chief offering his final essay on "60 Minutes" last night. The 92-year-old writer and commentator has been with CBS since 1949. He's worked with "60 Minutes" for 33 years, and this is how he signed off.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANDY ROONEY, COMMENTATOR: This is a moment I've dreaded. I wish I could do this forever. I can't, though. But I'm not retiring. Writers don't retire, and I'll always be a writer.

A lot of you have sent me wonderful letters and said good things to me when you meet me in the street. I wasn't always gracious about it. It's hard to accept being liked.

I don't say this often, but thank you. Although if you do see me in a restaurant, please, just let me eat my dinner.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: A curmudgeon until the end.

VELSHI: Till the end. That was Rooney's 1,097th and final commentary on "60 Minutes."

COSTELLO: Have a great time. I'm sure he'll keep working, though -

VELSHI: Oh, yes.

COSTELLO: -- and we'll hear more from him.

Coming up, Elmo is back with a serious new lesson for your kids and he's talking about that Christine Romans. You do not want to miss this.

It's 19 minutes -

VELSHI: Christine interviewed Elmo?

COSTELLO: I know. It was funny.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

VELSHI: Welcome back. "Minding Your Business" this morning. Twenty-three minutes after the hour.

This week it's all about Europe and jobs here in the United States. European markets are down this morning after the Greek government announced over the weekend that it will miss its deficit targets. Now, the news is raising concerns that the next EU bailout of Greece may be in jeopardy and the country will have to default on its debt.

Two more warnings about the growth of the global economy also weighing heavily on markets this morning. An IMF official announced this morning in Tokyo that further slowdown in the U.S. economy is hurting global growth as a whole. Also, the ratings agency Fitch downgraded the growth forecasts for all of the world's most powerful economies. These warnings and the news out of Greece are pushing U.S. stock futures down right now. Futures for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 all trading lower ahead of the opening bell. This week we'll get a fresh reading on growth in the labor market when the government releases its big jobs report for September. That comes out on Friday morning.

Also this week, investors watching closely Fed Chief Ben Bernanke's testimony about America's economic outlook. He'll be testifying in front of Congress. Tomorrow morning, he'll be speaking to the Joint Economic Committee.

Also big this week, Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 5 tomorrow. It's hosting an event in Cupertino, California entitled "Let's Talk iPhone." No word yet of former CEO Steve Jobs will make an appearance at the event.

Stock to watch today, Eastman Kodak is up in pre-market trading after taking a nosedive Friday. The stock sank more than 50 percent, down to just 78 cents a share after rumors started swirling that the company could be preparing to file for bankruptcy. Kodak denies those rumors.

AMERICAN MORNING will be right back after the break.

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COSTELLO: Oh, that's pretty. Good morning, New York. That's the sun over Central Park. It's chilly outside, though; 48 degrees, and, yes, we're expecting showers later today with a high of only 59.

VELSHI: Welcome back.

The brand new season of the "Sesame Street" will be brought to you by STEM. That's right. Elmo and the gang are about to get schooled in STEM, which is Science, Technology, Engineering and Math, all because our kids' scores in Sciences and Math are slipping here in the United States.

And this morning's "Smart is the New Rich," Christine Romans talked with Elmo and the show's executive producer about the new focus. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Elmo, what does STEM mean?

Elmo, "SESAME STREET": Oh, that's hard. What does STEM mean?

CAROL LYNN PARENTE, EXECUTIVE PRODUCER, "SESAME STREET": Well, remember Elmo, it's Science -

ELMO: Science -

PARENTE: -- Technology, Engineering and the M is the easy one.

ELMO: Math.

PARENTE: There you go.

ROMANS: Do you like Math?

ELMO: Yes. Elmo loves Math.

ROMANS: You like Math?

ELMO: Yes, because Elmo likes to count.

ROMANS: Well, can you count for me a little bit?

ELMO: One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20.

ROMANS: Is Math fun?

ELMO: Yes, Math is a lot of fun because you add this. You can use it when you're cooking. If you're going to use two eggs or three eggs, stuff like that.

ROMANS: Why is it important to get kids excited about STEM, about Science, Technology, Engineering, Math? And why is "Sesame Street" trying to make this part of the season this year?

PARENTE: Well, as a nation, we recognize we're falling behind in these areas. And it's always been "Sesame Street's" tradition to sort of give kids a head start, a leg up.

And when you actually boil down the STEM curriculum, right, Elmo, it's - it's perfect for preschoolers because it's about asking questions and investigating and experimenting.

ELMO: And experimenting.

PARENTE: Right. And that's how you learn.

ELMO: Experimenting.

PARENTE: It's a big word, Elmo.

ROMANS: You've learned some words like - I'm told you learned about amphibian and balance?

ELMO: And ingredient.

ROMANS: Ingredient.

ELMO: And liquid. Yes.

ROMANS: Why are you learning these words?

ELMO: Because they are really cool words. It's really fun to learn what they mean.

ROMANS: You also learned engineer. What's an engineer?

ELMO: Well, when you - when you build something, you're an engineer.

ROMANS: So it's creative.

ELMO: Yes. Another good word, creating.

ROMANS: Yes. Not necessarily static numbers, and Math and tables, but something you're trying to show kids is part of learning and part of life.

PARENTE: It is. It's very physical. STEM is fun. It's physical fun. It's about testing out things. And any questions kids have we encourage parents not to answer the questions that kids have, but explore the answers with their kids together.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

VELSHI: I don't know what to say about that.

You can catch Christine Romans in "YOUR BOTTOM LINE" every Saturday morning at 9:30, Eastern, right here on CNN and, of course, every morning here on - on AMERICAN MORNING.

All right, time now, 7:30. Time now for your top stories. A jury in Italy delivering the fate of Amanda Knox right now. The American student is hoping to have her murder conviction overturned. She spoke to the jury earlier this morning calling the accusations against her unjust.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KNOX (through translator): I am the same person that I was four years ago, exactly the same person. The only thing different from four years ago is my suffering. In four years, I've lost my friends and the most terrible and unexplainable way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

VELSHI: Now if her conviction is thrown out, Knox is expected to be on the first plane out of Italy for America.

And an American charged with plotting to attack the Pentagon and the Capitol will appear in court today. The 27-year-old Rezwan Ferdaus from Massachusetts allegedly planned to carry out the attacks using remote control aircraft filled with C-4 plastic explosives. He's also charged with attempting to provide material support to al Qaeda.

A major scare in the scare in the air for hundreds of passengers on two different flights. Six people were injured when Jet Blue flight from San Juan, Puerto Rico to Boston his turbulence. Meanwhile, a Lufthansa flight, which was en route to Munich from Charlotte, North Carolina had to be diverted to Boston after hitting rough air. Eleven passengers onboard that plane were injured. And Hurricane Ophelia bearing down on Newfoundland. Forecasters say the storm with 75 mile-an-hour winds is threatening to cause large waves and life-threatening surf conditions on the southern coast of the Canadian province. Ophelia is expected to weaken as it heads farther out into the northern Atlantic later today.

COSTELLO: Now to politics. The big wigs in the Republican Party just can't take no for an answer. Who can blame them really? They're convinced the president is beatable and the man they're convinced can beat the president is on the outside looking in right now.

So after repeated denials, reports say, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is considering a presidential bid. "New York Times" reporter David Halbfinger has covered Governor Christie since the 2009 election and he joins us now. Welcome David.

DAVID HALBFINGER, REPORTER, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": Thanks for having me.

COSTELLO: So after months of denial, Christie's inner circle supposedly is talking about the possibility. What are your sources telling you?

HALBFINGER: A few things are going on here now. As you know, many in the Republican Party from luminaries like Henry Kissinger to big donors like Ken Langone, the head of -- the founder of Home Depot had been -- trying to prevail upon Governor Christie to get in for the good of the party, for the good of the country.

In Christie-land, over the weekend in the last, really, week to 10 days, his advisers have been sorting through just a deluge of incoming offers of help. More of these appeals to get in, help that could be, you know, financial donors, fund-raisers, also operational help on the ground.

They're trying to sort through all of that incoming while at the same time going through what you might call the mother of all checklists.

If the governor decides to go, what do they have to do? That's a gazillion things they're going to have to do premature overnight. And at the same, they're trying to carve out a little space for the governor to make this decision.

COSTELLO: You know, Chris Christie supposedly wanted to run in 2016. But maybe now the time is right, because one of the things that his advisers are telling him, look, you're hot right now. So you might as well just go for it because by 2016, you might be the ho-hum governor of New Jersey again.

HALBFINGER: Yes, it's more complicated than that. The stakes are pretty high. The 2016 was his plan all along, we think, and they say, but, you know, if the president's numbers show he's pretty vulnerable and getting more vulnerable by the day, it seems.

The economy doesn't seem to be getting better fast enough at all, and in years' time, if a Republican does win, 2016 will be off the table for a Republican. It will be a re-election year.

So that opportunity will slip from his fingers. A lot of talk from Christie land now about sometime as man can't choose the moment.

COSTELLO: Yes, the moment is chosen for him. I like when you say Christie-land. I really like that. Senator John McCain appeared in the CBS morning program over the weekend and he had this to say about Chris Christie possibly jumping into the pool. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: If Governor Christie decides to run, I wish him luck. I think that there is a bit of a caution that always the swimming pool looks a lot better until you jump right in. The water may not be quite as warm as you think.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Well, exactly. You could certainly point to Rick Perry because he was the "it" candidate what, just a few weeks ago. Now he's sort of diminished in popularity, shall we say?

Chris Christie has more moderate views on social issues like gun control. He's pro-gun control. He supports clean energy. He wants that being in this country without proper documentation is not a crime.

So many conservatives would say he's kind of soft on immigration. Once those things are coming out about him, maybe he'll fare just as Rick Perry did?

HALBFINGER: You know, there are a lot of areas in which you might say, a distance between Chris Christie's stance and the popularity that he seems to be generating in the conservative base.

But I think, you know, those who are fond of him would -- I actually think that if he got in, Christie would say to American voters and to Republican rank and file what he said in '09 in New Jersey, which is you may not agree with me on everything, but you'll know where I stand on everything.

COSTELLO: So why does that work for Chris Christie and maybe not so much with Rick Perry?

HALBFINGER: You know, it may be about the personality and the style and the moment, much of what's creating this big boomlet for Christie is his style, his combativeness, in your face New Jersey attitude.

You know, I think there's this hope that if anybody, if any moderate or any centrist has a chance of finessing the conservative base of the party, many Republicans think Chris Christie can do that.

COSTELLO: Well, supposedly we'll know in a couple days, right? Just a couple of days. David Halbfinger from the "New York Times," thank you so much for coming in this morning. Ali --

VELSHI: Thanks, Carol. This program note, CNN will carry the western Republican presidential live from Las Vegas on Tuesday night, October 18th at 8:00 Eastern Time.

Coming up next, is the U.S. economy headed towards another recession? Well, our next guest, economist Lakshman Achuthan, says not only is a double dip recession inevitable, but it may have already begun. How bad might it get? We'll talk to him after the break. It's 37 minutes after the hour.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

VELSHI: Welcome back. "Minding Your Business" this morning. The evidence continues to mouth that we are headed towards a double dip recession. The economy is barely growing. Companies are not hiring. There's a debt crisis here and in Europe, and companies are stock piling cash.

Joining me now is Lakshman Achuthan. He is the co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, which does this -- this is your bread and butter. You track economic cycles. You're kind of agnostic as to the politics of it or things like that.

LAKSHMAN ACHUTHAN, CO-FOUNDER AND COO, ECONOMIC CYCLE RESEARCH INSTITUTE: Absolutely, totally.

VELSHI: And you've often come here and told us ahead of what's going to happen, what's happening. You have now looked at the data. For the first time late last week you said, we're now going to have a double dip recession and might actually be in one?

ACHUTHAN: Right. It's very hard to have conviction about anything, but in this case, we have a conceptual underpinning of how recessions and recoveries take place in this country.

VELSHI: Right.

ACHUTHAN: In a market economy, recessions are part and partial of a market economy so we're not getting away from them. Looking at the facts, we see that the forward-looking indicators.

Not one, not two, dozens of leading indexes are falling. There's contagion among the indexes. They're falling in a way that we only see when a recession is underway or starting.

VELSHI: Let's look at the GDP growth since we got out of the last recession.

ACHUTHAN: Sure.

VELSHI: You can see there, basically, the third bar is the third quarter of 2009. That's when we sort of emerged from the recession and saw growth and we saw a slowdown. But look right at the end there, the second quarter of this year. The second three months of 2011. We saw some growth. It looked like it was going the other way and that poor people were saying, maybe we're out of the woods.

ACHUTHAN: Yes, transitory soft patch. That's what a lot of people heard earlier on. It was a really critical moment because our indicators were really rejecting that idea saying, no, this is much more dangerous than that.

And since then we've sleep into a recession call. A couple points I would make. You saw that chart. There were eight bars of positive GDP growth.

VELSHI: Yes.

ACHUTHAN: Since the beginning of 2010, we've added almost 2 million jobs to this economy. That is why this is a new recession.

VELSHI: This is not the continuation.

ACHUTHAN: Yes.

VELSHI: Just we've just never gotten out of the recession. You're saying we clearly got out of that one.

ACHUTHAN: Because of those positives. Now, I will not argue that was an underwhelming recovery.

VELSHI: Right.

ACHUTHAN: I will not argue that the economy has felt bad for many years. It absolutely has. The point, the reason -- the news is, that it's going to be worsening from here on a persistent basis. So as bad as it is, it's going to get worse, and I think that's the main thing that people want to be aware of.

VELSHI: Do you have a sense of this new recession, this double dip, what it's going to feel like in comparison to the last one?

ACHUTHAN: Well, look, the last one actually, not only this one, started off kind of mild where you have the GDP up a little bit. That, by the way, the reason it was up earlier was because we were able to export to the rest of the world.

That's fading pretty quickly, if you look at the headlines. You see the rest of the world is kind of soft, too. Right now, we're in for a recession that's going to be at least a mild recession.

That's like 2001 or 1990, if people can remember those. They were soft periods. They were recessions. But the open question is, does something go bad? Is there a negative shock? Prior to Lehman, we were forecasting a pretty heavy duty recession and then had a shock and it was worse than even --

VELSHI: Froze credit around the world. No one would lend money to each other and it deepened what was already going to be a serious recession.

ACHUTHAN: So a takeaway from what I'm saying here.

VESLHI: Right.

ACHUTHAN: What we know are recessions, we have conviction on that based on theory and facts. We do not recommend policy at all, but I think people or policymakers, would be wise to take this call on the environment we're in very seriously, because if there is a negative shock. I don't know there will be, that would be a very bad --

VELSHI: Can policymakers, meaning the government of the United States, the Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, central banks elsewhere in the world, can they do things around the edges that will mitigate this or make it less bad?

ACHUTHAN: Not really. I wouldn't hold out much hope for that, but if they can do anything to avoid a negative shock, there's a policy-driven shock. You want to do no harm, if you can.

VELSHI: Right.

ACHUTHAN: And so in broad terms, right, you don't want to hike taxes because that would really hurt in the near term. This is all near term stuff.

VELSHI: Right.

ACHUTHAN: Or cut spending. Now, I know that that's, you know, tough for both sides to deal with, but do no harm near term. Medium and long term, we absolutely have to address those things. That's a separate thing.

VELSHI: Would a massive stimulus or QE3 help at this point?

ACHUTHAN: No. I'm afraid not. This recession will not be denied at this point. It's going to happen.

VELSHI: All right, Lakshman, always - it's never good news. But unfortunately, your forecasts tend to be very, very accurate. Lakshman Achuthan joining us now from the Economic Cycle Research Institute. Your morning headlines are next. It is 44 minutes after the hour.

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COSTELLO: 47 minutes past the hour. Here are your morning headlines.

Right now, an eight-person jury in Italy is deliberating the fate of Amanda Knox. The U.S. student is hoping to have her murder conviction overturned on appeal. She spoke to the jury earlier this morning, declaring her innocence. A verdict expected later today.

An American is sharing this year's Nobel Prize in medicine. Bruce Beutler along with two others won the prize for their work on the immune system. The Nobel Prices for chemistry, physics, economics and peace will be given out over the next week.

We could be in for a rough morning in the markets with stock futures trading lower ahead of the opening bell right now. And world markets are down, too. All because Greece announced over the weekend that it will miss its deficit targets, increasing its chances of default.

The protest against Wall Street entering their third week. Over the weekend, 700 people were arrested after police say they blocked traffic on the Brooklyn Bridge.

Rick Perry's fighting back against charges he and his family used hunting grounds in Texas with the "N" word in its name prominently displayed. GOP Herman Cain calls it very insensitive. Governor Perry says the name was changed and painted over soon after his family leased the camp.

He said he'd commit suicide before entering the Republican presidential race. And now, according to the "New York Times," Chris Christie is considering the death defying leap into the race. The New Jersey governor's advisers are scrambling to see if there's time to set up in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Two planes rocked by severe turbulence, one a JetBlue flight from San Juan to Boston. Six people suffered injuries onboard that flight. The other, a Lufthansa flight in route to Munich from Charlotte, North Carolina was diverted to Boston. 11 people onboard both flights were injured.

And for the first time in nearly 15 years, Tiger Woods is not among the top 50 golfers in the world. The rankings came out later this morning and Tiger's projected to be number 51 on the list.

That's the news you need to start your day. AMERICAN MORNING, back after a break.

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VELSHI: I hope I'm reading this right. It says it's 44 degrees in Atlanta right now and sunny.

COSTELLO: Ouch.

VELSHI: It's going to get up to 75 later on in the day. But I guess it's October, but that just seems cold.

COSTELLO: I know. You can hear -- you can see people freaking out in Atlanta --

VELSHI: Yes.

COSTELLO: -- because of that.

VELSHI: In Atlanta, sure. COSTELLO: Welcome back to AMERICAN MORNING.

There's a new study that says more than one in 10 children in the United States are not getting vaccinated, according to recommendations.

VELSHI: Our senior medical correspondent, Elizabeth Cohen, joins us live from the chilly CNN center in Atlanta this morning.

(LAUGHTER)

ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: It is.

(LAUGHTER)

VELSHI: Elizabeth, how many parents are making this choice to hold off on vaccinations, despite whether or not they are advised to get them for their kids?

COHEN: You know what, Ali, it's a minority of patients. Most patients are doing what pediatricians tell them and are getting vaccines on schedule. But a small but significant number are sort of deciding to do things a little bit differently.

So let's take a look at the specific percentages. 2 percent of parents are saying, I don't want any vaccines for my child. This is a really extreme and, many would say, really dangerous point of view. Don't give me anything. 7 percent are skipping at least one vaccine. And 7 percent are delaying at least one vaccine, saying, you know, doctor, I don't want this now. I want to get it later. So those are, you know -- I would say small but significant numbers are not doing it the way pediatricians officially are telling them to do it.

VELSHI: Which are the ones we're talking about here?

COHEN: There's about a dozen vaccines that kids are supposed to get, everything from polio to the flu to MMR, which is measles, mumps, and rubella. And people have different opinions on different ones.

Now, I really should point out here that a big chunk of the parents who decided to skip a vaccine and said, I don't want it, they were skipping the H 1N1 shot, which at the time they did this study was a separate shot. And it was new and, I think, scared a lot parents. So a lot of parents were saying, this H1N1 thing, I don't know about this. Let's not get it at all.

COSTELLO: I can understand that. But isn't it risky if you don't get your child vaccinated? Not just for your child, but other people in general.

COHEN: It is risky. And I'll be honest with you, sometimes I personally, as a mother and as a public health professional, feel very frustrated talking to parents because they say, oh, this shot is risky. Terrible things could happen. When the science says, terrible things are not going to happen to your child, and terrible things could happen if you skip it. There is a huge risk to skipping a vaccine. Your child could get very ill. And your child could possibly make someone else get very ill. So I think parents really need to sit back and think not once, not twice, but many, many times before they say no to a vaccine.

VELSHI: Elizabeth, thank you very much for that.

COHEN: Thanks.

VELSHI: Elizabeth Cohen in Atlanta.

COSTELLO: We asked to you "Talk Back" this morning. The question for you this morning, should the U.S. have targeted Anwar al Awlaki, despite his American citizenship.

This from Dave, "The USA has become kill crazy since 9/11. I have never heard so many government officials speak so loudly of killing people. Have we forgotten about justice and presumed innocence"?

This from Dane, "People seem to be forgetting about the crime known as treason. A person who betrays his own nation forfeits his rights. And while assassination may not be the most ideal method to get al Awlaki, the alternatives would more than likely have cost more American lives. I lose no sleep over this matter."

This from Steph, "Have we lost ourselves? Where is the right to due process? Where is habeas corpus? We can't suppose innocence or guilt without allowing for a fair trial. The true enemies of the state here are those who would stand by and allow something like this to happen. As much as anyone may or may not deserve punishment, we must abide by our founding values."

And this from McKenzie, "A terrorist is a terrorist. If you plot to destroy the country you grew up in and, despite your citizenship, you join a major terrorist organization, that makes you a terrorist. He was raised here, educated here. Instead of protecting his adopted country, he chose to act against us. American or not, his actions made him a terrorist."

Keep the comments coming, Facebook.com/Americanmorning. We'll read more later.

VELSHI: All right. Top stories when we return. And John McCain, Senator John McCain, live.

It's 54 minutes after the hour.

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