Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsroom

New Presidential Polls; Romney's Economic Plan

Aired October 26, 2012 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Top of the hour. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

Mitt Romney making a big speech today in a big swing state on, you guessed it, the economy. The response now pouring in.

Before we get to that, we have to talk about the storm that is forcing Romney's campaign to actually change its travel plans. Hurricane Sandy targeting the Northeast. And I want you to just look at this. This is a picture from space. Clearly, it is a massive, massive storm, so huge it would actually cover the geographic distance if you mapped out Memphis all the way westward to Los Angeles.

Officials in several states right along the East Coast already preparing for the worst, high winds, floods, power outages.

(WEATHER UPDATE)

BALDWIN: Something else we're talking for at least 11 more days, politics and this presidential race here.

In fact, the latest poll numbers confirm this will be a nail- biter of an election. But, today, the two campaigns, they are honing in on this one specific number. And that is 2 percent. That is the annual rate at which the nation's gross domestic product -- that's the GDP -- grew between the months of July and September.

It's really the broadest grade on how our economy is doing. Talk to the president, President Obama says this is just proof of a recovery, since the GDP the previous quarter was down at 1.3 percent. But his challenger also using 2 percent in his favor. Mitt Romney gave this speech in Ames, Iowa, and the backdrop was this construction company, Kinzler Construction. It's actually a small business that as it turns out got nearly $2 million from Obama's stimulus programs. Mentioned the word disappointing here.

Here is Mitt Romney last hour.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Today, we received by the way the latest round of discouraging economic news.

Last quarter, our economy grew at just 2 percent. After the stimulus was passed, the White House promised that the economy would now be growing at 4.3 percent, over twice as fast. Slow economic growth means slow job growth and declining take-home pay.

That's what four years of President Obama's policies have produced. Americans are ready for change , for growth, for jobs, for more take-home pay, and we're going to bring it to them.

Now, you know we have had four presidential and vice presidential debates. And there's nothing in what the president proposed or defended that has any prospect of meeting the challenges of the times. Rising taxes will not grow jobs or ignite the economy. In fact, his tax plan has been calculated to destroy 700,000 jobs.

A new stimulus, three years after the recession officially ended, that makes fair government, but it won't stimulate the private sector any better than it did the stimulus of four years ago. And cutting a trillion dollars from the military would kill jobs and devastate our national defense. This is not the time to double down on trickle-down government policies that have failed us.

It's time for new bold changes that measure up to the moment and that can bring America's families the certainty that the future will be better than the past.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

ROMNEY: If Paul Ryan and I are elected as your president and vice president, we will endeavor with all our hearts and energy to restore America. Instead of more spending and more borrowing from China and higher taxes from Washington, we will renew our faith in the power of free people pursuing their dreams.

We will start our plan for a stronger middle class that has five elements. And you have heard me talk about them before. One, we're going to act to put America on track to a balanced budget by eliminating unnecessary programs, by sending programs back to states where they can be managed with less abuse and less cost, and by shrinking the bureaucracy in Washington.

Number two, we will produce more of the energy we need to heat our homes, fill our cars and make our economy grow. We will stop the Obama war on coal, the disdain for oil and the effort to crimp natural gas by federal regulation of the very technology that produces it.

We're going to support nuclear and renewables. But we will phase out subsidies once an industry is on its feet. And rather than investing in electric, auto and solar companies, we will invest in science and research to make discoveries that can actually change our energy world and by 2020 we will achieve North American energy independence.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

ROMNEY: Three, we will make trade work for America. We will open more markets for American agriculture and products and services. And we will finally hold accountable any nation that doesn't play by the rules. Look, I'm going to stand up for the rights and interests of American workers and employers. And, four, we're going to grow jobs by making America the best place for job creators, for entrepreneurs, for small business, for innovators, for manufacturers.

This will mean updating and reshaping regulations to encourage growth by lowering tax rates while lowering reductions and closing loopholes and by making it clear from day one that unlike the current administration, we actually like business and the jobs that business creates.

And, finally, as we create more opportunity, we will make sure that our citizens have the skills they need to succeed. Training programs are going to be shaped by the states where people live. And schools will put the interests of our kids and their parents and their teachers above the interests of the teachers unions.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

ROMNEY: Look, when we do those five things, this economy is going to come roaring back. We're going to create 12 million new jobs in just four years.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Mitt Romney in Ames, Iowa.

Instant analysis now with our chief business correspondent, Ali Velshi, for me in Philadelphia.

Ali, let me just get this out of the way. There was nothing new there, and this really was an opportunity for Mitt Romney to get out in a key state and get folks excited and get them to vote. I don't want to harp on that. I want to harp the economy and to do that let's show a couple of polls here. So this first one we're going to look at..

(CROSSTALK)

ALI VELSHI, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: It's good for me that somebody wants to harp on the economy today, because I was told that was a major economic speech. It was a best-of collection of stuff that he's been saying for the last few months. So I would be most happy...

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: There you go. Boom. Moving on.

NBC News/"Wall Street Journal" poll, you can see here the question is, who would do a better job dealing with the economy? The victor at least in this poll thus far Mitt Romney. Other one, CBS News, here you can see Mitt Romney just a little advantage over the president.

Let's just get real. You have been hearing these plans improving the economy from both candidates. What are you hearing?

VELSHI: Yes.

Well, so here's how it divides up. It depends what you think the economy is. Is it GDP, which guys like me look at, or do you divide it into very specific things? If you think the biggest problem with the economy is deficit and debt, Mitt Romney blows Barack Obama out of the water on that.

People who think that's the most important thing choose Mitt Romney. If you think health care is the most important economic issue, which is for a lot of Americans, then Barack Obama wins that one hands down. And if you think it's jobs, that sort of splits down the middle.

And that's the issue. So what's the economy you're talking about? Mitt Romney, like I said, both of these polls give either of them a little edge, but it depends on what -- when you ask the question, what the voter is thinking about when they say the economy, if I'm going to get a better job or I want to get a raise or I want health care coverage or I want this country to get out of debt. That's why you're seeing such an interesting split.

BALDWIN: What about the voters now, these undecided, uncommitted, perhaps even the independents? We're throwing all these numbers out. Right? We're talking about this 2 percent GDP number in this third quarter. We're also next Friday, right, the jobless number, the unemployment number. That's the last big number before the election.

If I'm sitting home and I'm trying to figure out who the heck to vote for, am I looking at those numbers or to your point am I looking at my own economy before I vote?

(CROSSTALK)

VELSHI: You probably have a better sense of the economy than the GDP number gives you.

You know whether it feels better than it did a year ago. GDP doesn't tend to be that influential. It's an important number because it's a very big measurement so we want to see how it's going. But let me just give you some examples, China running at about 7 percent GDP growth, India at about 5 percent. We're at 2 percent; 2 is not great.

But we thought we were going to get 1.7 percent, so it's better than that. The last quarter was 1.3 percent. So it's better than that. But in order to create these 12 million jobs that both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney say can be created under their presidency, you would have to have at least 4 percent economic growth and that's what Mitt Romney is harping on that, 2 is half of 4, it's not even half as strong an economy as we need.

Now, that said, I don't know how much a president can do about that. Mitt Romney seems to feel or at least is trying to convince people that if you elect him he will enact policies largely having to do with tax cuts which will spur economic growth and get us from 2, to 3 and ultimately to 4.

BALDWIN: OK. And that's when the math at least works correctly.

(CROSSTALK)

VELSHI: Yes, 4 is good.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: OK. Ali Velshi, because we want to see you in that dress when the GDP reaches 4 percent, Ali, thank you.

VELSHI: Yes.

BALDWIN: Enjoy the bus tour, by the way. We're enjoying you and John Avlon.

So swing states, we know they're important, so do these campaigns. Next week, just look at the president's schedule. Here's the map, hitting five of them, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado, all of that by Wednesday. In Colorado, this thing is really a dead heat.

The latest poll shows Romney and Obama both at 48 percent. What does that mean? One percent of the voters could decide who wins the state's nine electoral votes.

And Colorado is where we find Miguel Marquez in the latest stop of his swing state tour.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Here we are, Rocky Mountain High in Golden, Colorado. This is Jefferson County. It's one of the most competitive counties in this state. Both campaigns are working this county very hard. It's because as little as 20,000 or 30,000 votes across the entire state of Colorado could paint this state red or blue.

(voice-over): That's as little as one percent of the overall votes statewide.

(on camera): So this is always the scariest bit of this, isn't it?

SPENCER HENNIGAN, APEX EX ADVENTURE TRIPS: The first step is always the hardest.

MARQUEZ: Spencer Hennigan has run APEX Ex Adventure Trips for two years.

(on camera): So this is the office?

HENNIGAN: True, true.

MARQUEZ: Not a bad office. HENNIGAN: I like it.

MARQUEZ: Business has grown, starting with four guides, he now has 20. This year, the company's biggest -- 3,000 trips, everything from rappelling to back country skiing.

HENNIGAN: It's a lot of hard work.

MARQUEZ: The business expanded, he says, by keeping prices low and taking advantage of Coloradans staying close to home.

(on camera): What do you hope for the next four years?

HENNIGAN: The more people that we can you know raise -- raise the bar for you know, equal pay, the more that we can feel inclusion in this state. MARQUEZ (on camera): While some have weathered the recession well, Colorado continues to struggle. The unemployment rate across the state about eight percent. Here in Jefferson County, it's about 7. 4 percent, just a little better.

This is the new restaurant.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is it.

MARQUEZ: The Nunez family, all ten of them pitching in on a new venture, a family restaurant. The restaurant's draw, authentic cuisine prepared by Gloria Nunez, who moved here from Mexico City when she was 21.

(on camera): How many recipes are in your head?

GLORIA NUNEZ, RESTAURATEUR: I don't know. I can never count them --

MARQUEZ (voice-over): Now 74, she's known as abuelita, grandma. What do you hope to see in the next few years?

NUNEZ: Well, I think one of the most important things is the economy to go up a little.

MARQUEZ: Now the restaurant is run out of a strip mall. Soon, a new building, a liquor license and as many as 15 new employees. But this family is still agonizing over which candidate is best for the future.

What makes this area so competitive?

LORENZO NUNEZ, EL CHINGON RESTAURANT: As you consider the numbers in terms of how the Hispanic population is growing -- not only here but across the country, we have an important voice.

MARQUEZ: Latinos, business owners and newer residents ready to deliver Colorado's crucial nine electoral vote votes. They could decide who takes the White House.

(END VIDEOTAPE) MARQUEZ: Now, one interesting thing about Colorado is there's more unaffiliated or independent voters here than there are Democrats or Republicans. So, that's what they're foreign for. The president comes back to Colorado, this is his 12th trip this year to the state. He's going to be in Colorado Springs, and that's conservative country. So both campaigns trying to get the vote out here -- back to you.

BALDWIN: Miguel Marquez, thank you very much. We appreciate it.

Coming up next, all this talk about swing states here, the swing state being called the key to this election getting bombarded by election ads, the most the state of Ohio has ever seen. We will take you there live.

Plus, a top Romney adviser suggests General Colin Powell endorsed President Obama because of race. Now response from both sides.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: In the first half of October, the Obama campaign received $90 million in donations. Impressive, but Romney did better. From October 1 through October 17, $112 million were brought in.

This is according to his campaign. And they also say, of that money, 92 percent was donations of $250 or less. Plus, the campaign has $169 million in cash on hand. No doubt some of that money will be going to the swing state of Ohio.

And let's go there to Martin Savidge, who is live for us in Cleveland.

And, Martin, this state has never seen this kind of money spent on political advertising.

MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely nuts.

Every television advertiser and buying-of-time person that we talk to says they have to -- they can't believe it. They're absolutely numb with the work they have been putting up to.

Let me just -- if you don't live in northeast Ohio, if you're not in a swing state, there's no way to describe to you the barrage the campaigns are delivering to the poor people of northeast Ohio. One woman said it's like standing in front of a firing squad that just keeps reloading, because they're getting hit on television, on radio, on billboards, online.

They're getting hit with the robo-calls at home. And then every day the candidates and their surrogates are coming in and they're messing up the traffic and people here are just so over the campaign.

But let's talk about the money. In the state of Ohio, the two candidates have spent on television advertising $177 million so far. Much of that money has been spent right here in northeast Ohio to buy television time. To give you a perspective, in 2008, campaign ads on television cast about $36 million. That's what was spent for that big year. In 2010, they spent $44 million. This year, so far they have spent $88 million, some say $97 million of television advertising in the city of Cleveland. That's a 140 percent increase over 2008.

The price to buy a 30-second spot on the 6:00 news has jumped 400 percent in this town. And then I'll just leave you with one last fun fact here. If you were to take all the ads that have been running on Cleveland television, the campaign ads since say the beginning of October, if you took those ads and ran them back to back to back to back and sat down and watched them all, you wouldn't get up for four- and-a-half days watching them 24 hours a day.

BALDWIN: Four-and-a-half days? Martin Savidge, well, tell these folks they have 11 more days to go, assuming this all goes as planned come November 6.

Martin, thank you so much for us in Cleveland.

Coming up next here: more fallout today involving the Lance Armstrong doping scandal. The latest developments will rewrite the history books.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Lance Armstrong's fall from grace just got a little deeper. Just a couple of hours ago, cycling's governing body asked Armstrong to return all his prize money -- that's millions of dollars here -- for his seven nullified Tour de France wins.

History books will now show no winner for the Tour de France all the way from 1999 through 2005. Those are the years Armstrong won, allegedly, with the help of these performance-enhancing drugs.

Tomorrow night, we are airing this powerful documentary all about this Lance Armstrong scandal. It contains from Armstrong's only deposition, and this is back to 2005. Here's a sneak peak.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The United States Anti-Doping Agency says that Armstrong was a drug cheat, part of an organized conspiracy by the U.S. Postal Service team to dupe the public and fool the authorities.

BETSY ANDREU, WIFE OF CYCLIST: The totality of the evidence is overwhelming. You're looking at the Bernie Madoff of sport. This is the biggest fraud in the history of sport. He couldn't have done it alone.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: When money is involved, big money, then, of course, the cheats come as well.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Lance Armstrong entered cycling as a brash young competitor, full of enthusiasm, but limited in his all-around ability. His mentor then was the Australian racer Phil Anderson.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Did he strike you in those days as a cyclist who could eventually win the Tour de France?

PHIL ANDERSON, CYCLIST: For me, no. To be a good Tour rider, you have to be a good time trialist and you have to be a good mountain climber. And he wasn't particularly strong in those two areas. To me, he didn't have what it took in those early years.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Lance Armstrong was then with the American Motorola team. So too was New Zealander Stephen Swart. Stephen Swart says that in 1995, when Phil Anderson had left the team, the riders complained that their European opponents were doping.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Did you talk with Lance Armstrong about the need to start using EPO to be competitive?

STEPHEN SWART, CYCLIST: We had -- we had a discussion about it, yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What did Mr. Armstrong say?

SWART: He did say, if we're going to the Tour, we have got to -- we have got to perform. We need the results.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What did that mean?

SWART: I think you just -- you didn't have to be a rocket scientist to figure it, you know? If we were going to be competitive, there was only one road to take.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Was there a discussion about doping in any way with Mr. Swart?

LANCE ARMSTRONG, FORMER PROFESSIONAL CYCLIST: The only aspect that is true is that he was on the team. Beyond that, not true.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: You don't want to miss CNN's special documentary. It's called "The World According to Lance Armstrong." Set the DVR, 9:00 Eastern tomorrow night only here on CNN.

If you were not watching CNN last night, you missed a moment that has everyone talking today. One of Mitt Romney's top advisers suggests that Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama because of race. And all of this comes as "The Washington Post" reports this election could be the deepest racial split since 1988 -- that impact next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Top Romney adviser John Sununu may be backing away from his controversial remarks suggesting race was a factor in Colin Powell's endorsement of President Obama.

But before I get to his clarification, let me just set this up. This is last night's clip that began this whole thing.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PIERS MORGAN, HOST, CNN'S "PIERS MORGAN TONIGHT": Colin Powell has decided to opt for President Obama again, despite, apparently, still being a Republican. Is it time he left the party, do you think?

JOHN SUNUNU, ROMNEY CAMPAIGN ADVISER: Well, I'm not sure how important that is. I do like the fact that his Colin Powell's boss, George Herbert Walker Bush has endorsed Mitt Romney all along.

And, frankly, when you take a look at Colin Powell, you have to wonder whether that's an endorsement based on issues or whether he's got a slightly different reason for preferring President Obama.

MORGAN: What reason would that be?

SUNUNU: Well, I think, when you have somebody of your own race that you're proud of being president in the United States, I applaud Colin for standing with him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So, that was Sununu on with Piers last night. Here's the statement, saying this. This is hours later.

Quote, "Colin Powell is a friend and I respect the endorsement decision he made and I do not doubt that it was based on anything but his support of the president's policies. Piers Morgan's question was whether Colin Powell should leave the party and I don't think he should," end quote.

Powell did not mention race at all when he endorsed President Obama, so, on that, let me bring in "Washington Post" White House reporter Peter Wallsten.

Peter, good to see you. Just quickly, your reaction to Sununu's clarification?

PETER WALLSTEN, WHITE HOUSE REPORTER, "WASHINGTON POST": Well, he clearly realized that he stepped in it. He had to fix it.

That's -- you know, Colin Powell is a very popular figure, one of the most popular figures to all Americans, so when you start questioning his motives that might be different than the motives he laid out in his endorsement, that's not going to sound good to anybody, to most people, black or white.

So, it sounds like he realized it was a problem and he wanted to kind of step out of it.

BALDWIN: OK. On race, we read this article. It was yesterday in "The Post." It was all about race in this presidential election. It was this article yesterday that basically was reporting that this election, this 2012 election, may have the deepest racial split since the 1988 race. And, in reading the article, there are a lot of numbers, but, among whites, Obama is currently doing much worse than he did in 2008. How much worse?

WALLSTEN: Significantly worse. In 2008, he won 43 percent of the white vote, which is very good for a Democrat. You know, the last Democrat to do that well was Bill Clinton in 1996.

Most Democrats over the -- in modern politics do high-30s, mid- to high-30s, so for Obama to win 43 percent as the first African- American president, that was really an incredible number.

Now, he's down to, in our poll, 37 percent of whites, so that's a pretty significant drop. Again, it puts him in the range, the normal range, for Democrats. Walter Mondale did worse than that at 35 percent in 1984.

But what it shows for President Obama is a big problem because he -- his coalition, his winning coalition, did rely on white voters in addition to heavy turnout of African-Americans and minorities.

BALDWIN: So, if it puts him in the range and, in reading this piece in "The Post," you know, the biggest loss for President Obama here, thus far, is specifically among white men.

Obama trails Romney double the margin that he trailed four years ago and, according to your paper's reporting, more white voters say Mitt Romney better understands the economic problems facing our country.

You look at the other polls that are out, you know, just polling Americans overall, Mitt Romney is the guy in terms of the economy.

Here we are, Peter, a week left of campaigning, one more jobs report. If Obama here has a chance with some of these white voters, is next Friday it?

WALLSTEN: It does seem like the jobs report -- I mean, I was talking to a Democratic strategist just yesterday who was saying that suddenly this jobs report, this last jobs report, does look extremely important for those people, those few people left who are left trying to decide.

If that jobs report, that number, gets worse, that could be problematic. That could lead to even greater slippage.

BALDWIN: Peter Wallsten, "Washington Post." Peter, thank you.

WALLSTEN: You're welcome.

BALDWIN: According to the polls, the race is so close, it got us wondering, what are the chances -- dare I say it -- of a tie? Is it possible? CNN's John King breaks down those chances, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BALDWIN: Want to tell you about this reunion here for the Pakistan teen who was shot in the head by a Taliban triggerman for standing up for girl's rights to get an education.

Malala Yousufzai's parents and two brothers are now -- you can see them -- by her bedside in this hospital. In fact, this is the first video of the 15-year-old activist since she was shot and evacuated to that hospital in Birmingham, England, just earlier this month.

Her father who arrived just last night from Pakistan spoke about the emotional reunion.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ZIAUDDIN YOUSUFZAI, MALALA'S FATHER: I love her and, of course, this morning, last night, when we met her, there were tears in our eyes and they were out of happiness, I say. Out of happiness.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: The shooting has sparked widespread outrage. Thousands have protested in Pakistan and now public anger has turned against the Taliban and her father vows to take his family back home to Pakistan.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YOUSUFZAI: When she fell, Pakistan stood and the (INAUDIBLE) and this is a turning point.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Malala's British doctors say she is progressing well, her head wound no longer infected. She doesn't appear to have any brain damage and both her vision and her hearing are good. And her father says she's already asking for her school books.

Taking you back to politics here, suddenly, it seems the Obama campaign is making a late push to target the youth vote. The president speaking on MTV tonight and then this ad here. Have you seen this, comparing voting to losing your virginity?

We're going to go there, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: CNN's new Poll of Polls, which, as you know, attracts a variety of polls, shows how close the presidential race is today.

You can see Mitt Romney at 48 percent and Barack Obama at 47, so the logical question here, as we take a big gulp to talk about this, what if there is a tie? Each candidate gets 269 electoral votes, what happens then?

CNN's chief national correspondent, John King, joins me live from Washington. And let's go there, John King. I mean, first, just mathematically, how possible, how probable is that for them for them to hit, both of them hit that 269 mark? What's the story?

JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Is it mathematically possible? Yes. I can give you, just using our battleground states, the nine states, eight states -- the eight states, we now call toss-ups. We lean North Carolina now for Governor Romney.

There are three or four scenarios, just using those states if nothing else changed in the map, Brooke, where I can get you 269 to 269. Is it likely? No. Elections tend to break late and most of the toss-up states tend to go one way or the other, the majority of them, anyway, but this one is so close, hard to say.

So, yes, it is a possible scenario that you get 269 to 269 and then, folks, there will a spike in sales of the United States Constitution because you have to look into the Constitution to figure out what to do and the newly-elected House of Representatives, using a complicated formula, would pick the president and the Senate would pick the vice president under that scenario.

At the moment, Republicans control the House. That vote is based on, you know, which party has the majority of House seats in any given state. That's how that formula was determined, but let's assume for the sake of argument the Republican House, a Republican House would pick the president and perhaps a Democratic Senate would pick the vice president.

So, that would be an interesting moment in history. I don't -- I wouldn't bet we're going to get there, but, wow, it would be a great story to cover.

BALDWIN: It would be kind of incredible, but let's, I guess, cross our fingers that that won't happen for either of these men's sakes.

How about early voting? We know the president is certainly someone who doesn't have to stand in long lines on election day, right? He was in Chicago last night. He early votes.

You know, nationally, early voting is on the rise when you compare the numbers to 2008. Conventional wisdom, John King, among, you know, election officials and pundits is that we wouldn't have seen this kind of turnout because we've been reporting so much on lack of enthusiasm, this go-around. What gives?

KING: There's actually pretty decent intensity as we get close to election day. We had some folks from the Obama campaign debrief us today and they think turnout will go up from 2008. They think a lot of that new turnout will help them, new Latino voters in the system, new younger voters in the system.

We'll see if that plays out. New African-American voters in the system, as well. We'll see if that plays out on election day. But what the president was doing, Brooke, was trying -- is part of a very calculated strategy by the Obama campaign. He could have mailed in an absentee ballot. He went on purpose to get the photos of him voting early to send a signal.

But not just a photo op for exposure for him, to send a signal to his voters. What his campaign has done is they've identified their key voters in every state and the Republicans are working on this, too.

And they rank you, essentially. How reliable are you? How likely is it or how unlikely might it be -- bad weather or, if you're a young student, maybe you had a test, maybe you went out and had a drink the night before -- how likely is it or unlikely of you voting on election day and they're calling those people the least reliable voters on their list to get them to try to get them to vote early.

And Republicans are doing the same thing. And the Democrats think they have a big edge here. Republicans say they're doing better than they did in 2008.

As we crunch these numbers, in some states, the Republicans are performing better, but this is -- as you mentioned, this is increasingly part of the new habit of our democracy and most election officials think it's a good thing because overall it leads to higher turnout.

BALDWIN: But this is certainly not something, you know, picking up on one of your points that the Republicans are losing sleep over because when you look at early voting numbers, say in Iowa or North Carolina, which you mentioned a moment ago, now in the eight states, that's one that we have leaning toward Romney, even though the momentum appears to be toward Obama and these Democratic voters.

Not really a reason to celebrate for Team Obama.

KING: You know, the numbers, if you look at some of those states, they're not as big as they were in 2008. Republicans say, you know, in most states, they're not going to win the early voting, but if they can make it closer, that more of the voters who are traditionalists who like to come out on election.

So, you go, state-by-state, through this, both campaigns and both parties are trying to spin us a little bit, saying these numbers are good for us, these numbers aren't so good for us.

But, again, one of the things the Obama campaign is doing very smartly and this is the luxury of not having a primary opponent, Brooke, they've been working on these lists for months and months.

And the Republicans concede they're playing catch-up to some degree because, while Mitt Romney was out debating Michele Bachman and Newt Gingrich and the rest, the Obama campaign was working on an election day turnout operation.

The Republicans, though, insist they've made up ground and they say they're -- if you look at the first day of early voting, it tends to benefit the president. If you look after three or four days, it tends to get better. We'll be doing this math on election night. Trust me.

BALDWIN: We'll be watching for you, Mr. Magic Wall. John King, we appreciate it.

And now to this ad. Lena Dunham, she has been called the voice of her generation. She's the actress. She's actually also the creator of the HBO hit series called "Girls" and she has now created this new ad for President Obama.

It is paid for by the Obama campaign and it's this racy play for young female voters here and it is definitely stirring up controversy, some saying the innuendo is in bad taste. Here it is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LENA DUNHAM, ACTRESS: Your first time shouldn't be with just anybody. You want to do it with a great guy. It should be with a guy with beautiful -- someone who really cares about and understands women.

A guy who cares whether you get health insurance and, specifically, whether you get birth control.

The consequences are huge. My first time voting was amazing.

It was this line in the sand. Before I was a girl. Now, I was a woman.

I went to the polling station, pulled back the curtain and I voted for Barack Obama.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Brianna Keilar for me at the White House.

And a little side note to this before we talk about the ad. There was this was this recent op-ed on CNN.com by a Republican consultant, Alex Castellanos, saying Obama is the president of cool and Romney, the terminally uncool.

So, if that is the case, is there a chance this ad is too edgy, Brianna? It might turn off some voters?

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: You know, like, how would your mom feel about it, I think might be the question.

I don't think it's an ad that your mom is really obviously the target of. This is an online-ad directed at young voters, but I don't know if you were watching Twitter last night. I was because I had a plane delay, so this is how I entertain myself.

BALDWIN: This is how Brianna Keilar passes her time. KEILAR: It was blowing up. Yes, it was just completely blowing up on Twitter and this is how I was passing my time, just watching all back and forth. There were a lot of conservatives who felt like this was tasteless. They felt that it ridiculed virginity and that that was inappropriate.

There were a lot of liberals who felt it's just kind of funny and tongue-in-cheek and something that gets a lot of buzz, which, obviously, it has.

I think the bottom line, Brooke, is that it doesn't tick off a lot of people who would consider voting for President Obama anyway, so I think this is maybe something that works for the Obama campaign.

And I will say Talking Points Memo, which, of course, is a liberal outlet, pointing out in defense of this ad, because it did create such an uproar, that Ronald Reagan back in 1980 said something where he was joking about virginity.

He said, I know what it's like to pull the Republican lever for the first time because I used to be a Democrat myself and I can tell you it only hurts for a minute and then it feels just great.

So, this is the kind of stuff that gets people really going, obviously, Brooke.

BALDWIN: It does, as evidenced by Twitter and your noticing all that.

But, you know, Mitt Romney's campaign says women care much more about than simply abortion and health issues. Clearly, the president's campaign, sticking to this line.

But, when you look at the polls, Brianna, they are suggesting that Obama's lead among women, it's narrowing.

KEILAR: Yeah, and there's polls that are kind of showing a bunch of different things. One of the latest ones, "The Washington Post"/ABC poll actually showing that he's kind of about where he was in 2008, what exit polls showed for Barack Obama and John McCain.

But you have other polls this month that have shown that his lead with women have almost evaporated. Women are dependable, Democratic voters. They tend to go that way for President Obama, as well, and he really needs to rely on them.

And, certainly, this is a big concern. This is why you're hearing a lot of talk about the Mourdock comments, about contraception and also about jobs and economic issues.

But this is certainly something that President Obama -- I think the Obama campaign, is concerned about, although they're downplaying some of the polls that show the lead all but evaporated, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Also clearly important here, the president reaching out to the younger demographic. He will be appearing on MTV tonight, so we'll talk about that, possibly tomorrow.

Brianna Keilar, Brianna, thank you for us at the White House.

The embattled former prime minister of Italy sentenced to four years in prison, today. He has already survived corruption charges, sex scandals. Coming up next, how Silvio Berlusconi may find a way to escape prison time, again.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Italy's former prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, was sentenced today to four years behind bars for tax fraud, but he may never step a foot in prison. We'll get to that here in just a moment.

But, first, to Milan where the court said Berlusconi was guilty of tax evasion involving his media and television empire. Berlusconi is expected to appeal.

Just a couple hours ago, he spoke to a media outlet, calling the sentence, quote/unquote, "unacceptable" and added he was certain he would have been acquitted.

Our senior international correspondent, Ben Wedeman, is live for me in Rome. And just, Ben, explain this to me. Despite this four year sentence, how may he avoid time in prison?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, quite easily. For one thing, there's a two-tier appeal process.

In addition to that, the statute of limitations for these charges, this is a trial that goes back to 2006, may well expire next year, in which case he's off the hook.

In addition to that, if you are over the age of 70 in Italy and not convicted of a violent crime or terrorism or drug-related crimes, you get to serve your time at home, so he can take advantage of all of those things.

The only thing, according to legal analysts, that might sort of land him in jail is he's also on trial for paying for sex with a minor, in which case, all of those loopholes don't exist, so he's not out of the woods quite yet. Brooke?

BALDWIN: Quite yet. Ben Wedeman, thank you

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

THULANI MADONDO, FOUNDER OF KLIPTOWN YOUTH PROGRAM: Since the (INAUDIBLE) Kliptown has not changed. There is no electricity. People are living in shacks.

Growing up in Kliptown makes you feel like you don't have control over your life. Many children drop out of school because they don't have school uniforms and textbooks. I realized that the only way that Kliptown could change was through education.

I'm Thulani Madondo. I'm helping educate the children so that we can change Kliptown together.

We help the children by paying for their school books, school uniforms.

Our main focus is our tutoring program that we run four days a week.

As young people who are born and raised here, we know the challenges of this community.

We also do a number of activities. We've got to come together for fun while we also come together for academics.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The program gave me a chance to go to the university. They helped me pay for my fees, but that's why I also come back and help out here.

A little can go a long way.

MADONDO: What subjects do you like? Math and science. And English. Exactly. Yes.

I did not go to university, but being able to help them, I feel excited.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I am going to be an accountant.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I am going to be a lawyer.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And I am going to be a nurse.

MADONDO: The work that you are doing here is bringing change.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: And thank you so much for being with me. I'm Brooke Baldwin at the CNN World Headquarters in Atlanta. Have a wonderful evening. I'll be back Sunday evening, so if you want to tune, 6:00 to 9:00 in the morning, Eastern, I'll be here.

In the meantime, let's take you to Washington. Wolf Blitzer, "The Situation Room" begins right now.

Hey, Wolf.