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October Jobs Report; Colorado in Focus; Calculating the Jobs Report; Job Growth Accelerates
Aired November 02, 2012 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR: To save his job we're going to have the answer in just four days. Welcome to a special jobs report edition of CNN NEWSROOM.
I'm Ali Velshi reporting live from Toledo, Ohio, the state that may decide this election.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: And welcome to our viewers around the world as well. I'm Christine Romans in New York. We just got a look at what may be the last final political football in this election. The U.S. Labor Department released the final monthly jobs report before the election and, Ali, it was a solid report.
VELSHI: Yes. Hundred and seventy-one thousand positions were created in October. We were anticipating 125,000. We were also anticipating, at least the economists we spoke to, were experiencing a bump up in the unemployment rate which was 7.8 percent to 7.9 percent. So that is what we saw.
There's also some other news. The two prior months were revised. That typically happens but they were revised higher. Now a separate survey, as we said, is -- deals with these two numbers. You're going to see these headlines, 171,000 jobs created, 7.9 percent unemployment rate. You're going to see them all day and all weekend. Both President Obama and Governor Romney promised that more can be done.
And over the next hour we're going to look at whether these are presidential plans or presidential wish list, Christine.
ROMANS: Yes. And both candidates are going to try and spin this number to their advantage, Ali. And here are the facts, quite frankly. You've got numbers here that show a jobs recovery, you've got a couple of years plus of jobs growth. You've got 157,000 jobs on average created each month this year.
But that's not enough to make everyone feel like it's a robust labor market or that it's really recovering. So there's somewhat -- something here, Ali, obviously, for everyone.
VELSHI: Yes.
ROMANS: You're going to get spin from both sides. An unemployment rate of 7.9 percent still feels uncomfortable. But the private sector is creating jobs, Ali. VELSHI: Absolutely. Austan Goolsbee is an economics professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and he's the former chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers. Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business, and Diane Swonk is the chief economist with Mesirow Financial. They all join me now.
Austan, let's start with you. I know the case can be made that this president brought us back from the brink. But did he bring us back fast enough and could this recovery have been stronger, Austan?
AUSTAN GOOLSBEE, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO BOOTH SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: Well, you know, it's always hard to say something counterfactual like that. I know that if you look around the world, while the U.S. growth is modest, it's about the fastest growth rate of all the advanced countries around the earth. So I think it's been a very tough spot for the world economy. And it's not that comfortable but I think you did see the first year dramatic decline and then since that first year, 15 months, you've seen some pretty substantial recovery that still got a long way to go before people are going to feel like we're fully recovered.
ROMANS: You know, and, Austan, let me jump --
(CROSSTALK)
ROMANS: Let me jump in there. Because we do still have a long way to go. And here are a couple of charts that I think a supporter of Governor Romney would hope people would focus on. These are two longer-term numbers. First the labor force participation rate. It rose slightly to 63.8 percent. I mean, look at this number. You have to look back to 1981 to see numbers that low.
Let me give you another one. Second, the so-called underemployment rate now stands at 14.6 percent. Hey, that's a little bit better. But you know what? This is still a number that a lot of people say is the real feel unemployment rate. So you know -- go ahead.
GOOLSBEE: OK, but you're getting -- let's not get a little confused. If you take that real unemployment rate, that's down substantially more over the last three years than the observed regular unemployment rate is down. So, you know, you don't want to compare two different numbers. You should take any series and look at that one over time. And, as I say, that one went way up and then it's come down even more than the other one.
Labor force participation -- I mean the population is aging. Labor force participation rates have been declining under most presidents of the last 20, 30 years. That's the weakest spot in the labor market. But I think you want to be a little careful of impuding what the labor force participation should be when we're in the middle of the baby boomer retiring.
VELSHI: All right. Let's bring in Peter Morici from the University of Maryland School of Peter, you're a conservative and you say, quote, "If President Obama is re-elected, the jobs picture will worsen. But it's been a good week of reports for Obama. Let me just talk about things outside of the jobs market. Home prices are up. Consumer confidence hit its highest level in four years. Incomes and spending are up.
How do you still, Peter, make the case that the U.S. economy is broken?
PETER MORICI, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: Well, we're just not growing at the pace we should. The Obama administration has sold America on the notion this is the worst crisis since the Great Depression. When Mr. Reagan took office we had double-digit inflation, double-digit unemployment and the jobless rate peaked at 10.8 percent. When he ran for re-election, it was -- the unemployment rate was down much lower and the economy was growing at 6.3 percent. Three times what Mr. Obama has accomplished.
You know, if the participation rate was the same today as it was when the recovery began -- not too long ago, Mr. Goolsbee -- the unemployment rate would be 9.6 percent. And in fact, baby boomer's participation is actually increasing. Because in this poor economy, their retirement accounts are worth so little and they're not getting any interest on their CDs that they're going back to work. The labor force --
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: Peter, hold on a second. Hold on a second. Hold on a second. But, Peter, Peter, Peter, Peter, Peter, Peter, we're four days from election. Just tell me, we -- if you want to re-litigate the recession, we can do that.
MORICI: OK.
VELSHI: We'll need another hour to do that. Let's actually talk about job creation. Both presidential candidates have made a promise that they will create 12 million jobs in four years. That has only been three times in our history. Once was in World War II, the last two times were under Reagan and Clinton where economic growth was in excess of 4 percent.
We -- you're an economist. Are you thinking we're going to get 4 percent growth in the next couple of years?
MORICI: Yes, I do. If Mr. Romney is elected, we will get 4 to 5 percent growth because he'll attack the real problems.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: Why? Why?
MORICI: Well, simply stimulus spending doesn't solve the problem. It's -- it's like a Band-Aid. We need to solve the problems with regard to China, reopen our energy sector and have reasonable regulations to business so they're not afraid to invest. If we grew the economy at the pace that Mr. Reagan did, we'd surely get 12 million jobs, we'd get even more than that and we'd get unemployment down to some acceptable level.
VELSHI: The tax -- the tax drop under Reagan, which everybody likes to quote, was significantly larger than anything being proposed, including by Mitt Romney, and anything more than we can afford right now.
But stay right there, Peter. We're going to come back to this discussion.
ROMANS: Yes, Ali, let me -- let me bring in Diane Swonk here, who can take the politics out of all of this for a moment.
You know, Diane, we're not going to wake up to the same economic problems on Wednesday just because there's a -- there's different president, right? It's going to be the same situation Wednesday morning as Tuesday night.
DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MESIROW FINANCIAL: Absolutely. And I think one of the important issues here is let's keep focus on what's going on here. Labor force participation rates, lot of games being played with that. It peaked in 2000 when we had really low unemployment rates and anyone with a pulse. Actually there's a book written about a nudist that got a job working the midnight shift. I wouldn't want to sit in his seat afterwards. But that was how unbelievable anyone could -- I mean, he worked in the nude. So, you know, I don't want to vision visualize this.
But that was an extraordinary period but what we saw is we do know that from 2000 to today about half of the reduction in the participation rate is due to demographics. The 1947 baby boomers were the -- are just turning 65. The birth rate between 45 and 47 went up by more than 30 percent. So we're (INAUDIBLE) that on the weakness side we do know that some people are taking 62, reduced benefits for social security because they've been -- they've been unemployed for a long time. They did pay into Social Security and they don't think there's any other alternative.
I think it is helpful that you're seeing some more people throw their hat in the ring and this is consistent. This is -- not enough jobs but it's really consistent with the improvement in consumer confidence we've seen where they said there were more jobs out there than were being reported and they felt more hopeful about their job prospects going forward. We saw that.
We're also seeing some very important details. Dirt is always in the details. Residential construction, specialty residential construction, home values have picked up or are no longer falling. That is the biggest wealth effect out there. And people are now -- their pent-up demand in remodeling is showing up in this data.
Weakness in this data is still in the manufacturing sector, although we created manufacturing jobs. You really see what Austan points out we're sort of the strongest economy out there. So internally things that are internally related did better. But on many of the manufacturing sides that are multinational, they were declines because exports have been weak, China has been weaker and so has Europe.
So you've got a sort of tale of two economies, a relay race going on. And what -- instead of a relay race where now the manufacturing sector hands off to the consumer and the housing market, you'd really rather see a marathon where we're all running together.
VELSHI: Austan, I picked on Peter about this because the 12 million jobs in four years depends on 4 percent economic growth. The Obama team has said the same thing, that they can come up with 12 million jobs in four years. The math works out the same. The economy has got to grow at 4 percent. Do you see that happening? Because I don't see it happening.
GOOLSBEE: Well, I don't think you quite would need all the way up to 4 percent growth. Let me just disagree with you a little there. I mean you've seen over the last 2 1/2 years a rate of job creation that's around two million a year. So you would just need three million a year.
VELSHI: Right.
GOOLSBEE: And I think if you got up to 3, 3.5 percent, you could see that. Now I think over the next six to 12 months is your weakest spot in that because, as Diane said, you know, you've got China, you've got Europe, you've got -- we're getting no extra boost from around the world. So -- and we've got all of these issues of the fiscal cliff, which we've talked about on this show before, Ali. And so if you can get past that first six to 12 months, I think then you would be a little more confident.
SWONK: You know, can I weigh in a little bit? I actually am a little more optimistic than Austan regardless of who is president. And I think it matters whether we get credible deficit reduction out there. But I do think it's really important is that we've got -- the housing market could be a big upside surprise. The housing market coming back and state and local government still deteriorating, but if they just plateau out and are no longer a drag, that's the line --
(CROSSTALK)
ROMANS: OK.
SWONK: The dynamics of that could mean a lot more growth in 2014, 2015. Still 2013 absolutely agree with Austan, the diciest part of the outlook right now.
ROMANS: All right. Diane, Austan, Peter, Ali is going to stick around.
Ali, I should tell that Mitt Romney -- the Romney campaign just issued a press release saying that today's report is a sad reminder that the economy is at a virtual standstill so obviously they have a polar opposite view of things than Austan Goolsbee.
All right. Everyone, thank you very so much. Coming up, the economy adding 171,000 jobs last month but not everyone is feeling the recovery. I'll tell you who got left behind right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROMANS: The economy added 171,000 jobs in October. That's good news. But not everyone, of course, feels it. I want to show you two worker groups who aren't faring as well as everyone else.
First, African-Americans, the unemployment rate for that worker group stands at 14.3 percent. That's compared with 7.9 percent overall. And recent college graduates also suffering here. Researchers at Northwestern -- Northeastern, rather, University found that nearly half of all recent college grads are unemployed or they're not working at a college level job, or in a college level field. That will have implications, Ali, for years and years to come for these workers as they start their careers.
VELSHI: Yes, in fact, I just spoke to somebody in Youngstown, Ohio, went back to school to get the degree because she knows these statistics, and says she's earning less than if she were working at McDonald's.
Candy Crowley is joining us now. She's CNN's chief political correspondent, the host of CNN's "STATE OF THE UNION."
Candy, both of these groups that Christine points to, African- Americans and young people, strongly supported President Obama four years ago. How does the president have to look at this? Can he expect the same enthusiastic support this time given that these are two groups whose situation has not improved dramatically under President Obama?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: It actually isn't a matter of strong support, because as far as we can tell, certainly in the African-American community, there's still incredibly strong support for President Obama and there is still a majority of strong support among young people.
The question is: will they come out in the numbers that they did? Are they discouraged enough to go, you know what? Forget it.
So it isn't so much enthusiasm. What the Obama campaign has concentrated on, you saw it with MTV. You saw it with even a little bit with Joe Biden last night, showing up on popular TV. They've been trying to drive out that youth vote. They've been on college campuses. Their turnout machines always involve college campuses, the texting, social networks.
So, what they're trying to do, looking at those figures, we're seeing that unemployment among 20 to 24-year-olds actually went up this month from last month. So it is a grim picture for that particular demographic, which is the president's demographic.
So the question is, can he still drive them out on, you know, the promises of the future? I think African-American votes, we've heard a lot about how they're not enthusiastic. Everyone I've talked to said they are just not seeing that in early voting. They say that the numbers are up in terms of African-Americans or at least even to what it was last time around.
So, it isn't so much African-Americans, I think, who are still there in large numbers and large percentages, but the youth vote is quite problematic for the president.
ROMANS: Right. You know, Candy, who can fix it? And who thinks -- which candidate can fix it? Number one issue in this election is jobs. And if that's the issue be voters take to the ballot box in a very close election, it might spell trouble for the president if you look at these polls.
The Pew Research Center found 50 percent of registered voters said Romney would do a better job of improving the job situation, just 42 percent say President Obama.
I can tell you from a business reporter stand point, neither candidate has offered a real plan to create jobs. So, why is Romney getting a political edge on jobs, at least in the polls, at least what people say they feel?
CROWLEY: The Romney campaign came in the primary season selling his business experience, and it sold very well. It took a huge dip over the summer when all of the Bain Capital ads came out, when the Obama campaign completely pounded Mitt Romney on the airwaves for what he did as a businessman.
But we saw the comeback during that first debate when people took a look at Mitt Romney and said, oh, look, he seems to know what he's talking about. The president put in, you know, a sub-par kind of performance in that first debate and we saw Mitt Romney's numbers rise and surpass the president's.
But I think the other number you have to look at, two other numbers that I think you already know, Christine, one of them is consumer confidence. Even if it's bad now, if you think it's going to get better, you're going to vote on that.
And the other one is that question about who understands you best, who understands your life, who understand your needs. And President Obama always ranks higher than Governor Romney does in that.
VELSHI: Than Romney does, yes.
Candy, thanks so much for that. Candy Crowley, joining us.
I've been calling it a ridiculous pledge initially for Mitt Romney and then followed up by President Obama, that they'll create 12 million jobs in four years. President Obama said the same thing. I say it all the time. Based on campaign math -- in other words, it just doesn't add up.
We're going to talk to one of the architects of that plan. He's here to prove me wrong.
Stay with us. Special edition of NEWSROOM on the jobs report.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROMANS: A hundred seventy-one thousand jobs created last month. That's what the jobs pictures looks like in this country now. But Mitt Romney has a very different image in his mind. He, by the way, calls that 171,000 jobs, he calls that an economy labor market at a standstill.
He also continues to claim he can create 12 million new jobs in four years. Here he was yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: We're going to create 12 million new jobs and more take take-home pay.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Now, Mitt Romney says, Christine, that that's a plan. I say it's a wish. Romney started this. But Obama picked it up as well. I, too, would love to see 12 million new jobs by 2016. I just can't make the figures add up.
It's been done before over the second terms of the Clinton and Reagan presidencies. But the economy was a very different place. But this has got to be key to your decision making. All sorts of people are claiming that we can do this. Those were boom times. We're coming out of the worst recession now than this country has ever seen.
GDP growth back then was consistently above 4 percent. IHS Global Insight, one of the best of economy of these types of economic forecasts ran the numbers, they are predicting 1.3 percent GDP growth under either candidate's fiscal plan in the next year or so.
I want to bring in one of the authors of Romney's 12 million jobs claim. John Taylor is a professor at Stanford University. He's a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and an adviser to Mitt Romney's campaign.
Now, John, I know you and I talked about this before. I am all for aspirational goals. So is America by the way. They really want big goals.
But this is not being presented as a wish, goal or aspiration. It has been presented as an achievable promise. I just don't feel that that's entirely honest.
JOHN TAYLOR, ROMNEY ECONOMIC ADVISOR: Well, there's a number of ways to look at it and get the same number. First of all, look at the history you were referring to. The 1980s, we came out of an even deeper recession than we have now where unemployment got way over 10 percent and we created many more jobs than we're doing now. The numbers are quite like what's being predicted. Second, there's a plan that Governor Romney has put forward. It's making sure we don't raise taxes. It's getting away from the short term actions, which I think has held the economy back because of uncertainty. There's a lot of cash out there that firms are sitting on, waiting for the opportunity.
There's a number of ways you can look at this and they all come to this as a sensible, achievable goal if the right policies are put in place. I think that's what we need to do in this country.
ROMANS: We've been saying for years that the recovery is weaker than the previous recoveries, even those caused by the financial crisis, which, you know, are typically slower than others. You put the blame for this squarely on President Obama and his economic policies.
Now, I want to show you a couple of charts, John, that the president could use to challenge that assertion. First, this is the unemployment rate since the president took office. It rose following an economic crisis that the president did not create, by the way. Since then, it has been heading steadily downward now at 7.9 percent.
Before you say, John, that's due to labor force dropouts, take a look at another chart for me. Private sector jobs have seen a similar rebound. Every job lost since President Obama came into office has now been regained and then some. He's now a net job creator during his administration.
Isn't this clear evidence that the president's policies are working?
TAYLOR: No, because we could be doing so much better. If you just look at that recovery I was referring to in the 1980s. Remember, it was a tough time. Policies were put in place. We got away from the short-termism. Tax reform was put in place and we had much sharper growth.
In fact, I think if you look back in history and people should do this carefully. You see rebounds like this from deep recessions, from financial crisis regularly. It's a real disappointment to me. It's a tragedy at this point that unemployment is still so high.
Americans should not put up with this. You don't hear much talk about unemployment from the administration these days because it's so high still. And that's the problem.
We can do much better. I know. I've seen the history. I've seen the policies. The more people look at it, in fact, I think they become convinced we can do much better.
VELSHI: John, good to see you as always. Thanks very much for joining us. John Taylor.
TAYLOR: Thank you.
VELSHI: OK. How is the stock market going to react to this final jobs report before Election Day? We're going to head to Wall Street to find out. You are watching a special edition of CNN NEWSROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ROMANS: The opening bell just rang at the New York Stock Exchange. Wall Street is open for business.
I want to welcome back our international viewers and also those on the West Coast that are just waking up this morning.
Let's get some reaction now from investors this morning's jobs report. Alison Kosik is at the big board.
Good morning, Alison.
ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Christine.
We are watching stocks move higher. The Dow is up 52 points as the bell rang about a minute ago. You know, futures have been slightly lower before the jobs report came out and then you saw stocks immediately pop into positive territory.
You know, the carryover is a bit more muted than we expected because the way the markets see this jobs report, there's a harsh reality to it, 171,000 -- no doubt, it's good. Because the jobs market has such a big hole to climb out of, it's not really a rousing break.
Plus, these jobs report is looking backwards. It's looking at the month of October. And the market is looking ahead to the main event, the election.
So, investors are probably going to be holding on to their positions more than usual. They're not really going to do any real trading until after the presidential election next week -- Christine.
ROMANS: All right. Thanks, Alison.
Ali, let's bring you in here, talk more about Ohio. You're with CNN political contributor John Avlon.
And, you know, CNN poll of polls, guys, shows President Obama with a three-point lead over Mitt Romney in the state. No Republican has won the White House without carrying Ohio. How many times have we said that over the past nine months? Of course, 2008 the president won by, I think, four points.
Ali, you've been talking to undecided voters in the state.
VELSHI: Yes.
ROMANS: How do you think today's job report plays in Ohio?
VELSHI: Well, I happen to think that this may be the single most motivating event to take place at this point in the campaign. There have been other motivating events. On its own, this wouldn't be such a big deal. But in a race that is so tight, uncommitted, undecided and even decided voters could be convinced to come out and cast a ballot for the candidate who they think can best propel the country forward.
Now, throughout our CNN Election Express tour, we've been on this bus, we've heard over and over again that the number one issue is jobs. Here is what the voters have told us.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There's still a lot of depressed areas, a lot of joblessness.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I need a job next year. But just looking around at the unemployment rate it's so scary to me.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The last four years has not been very good for our small business.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: With the debt crisis our country has, that burden is going to be on us in the future.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: All the skills I had are obsolete now.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE) at White House, I don't see rich people all the time. But I see a lot of poor people.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Shut down, closed, reduced wages, ship the jobs overseas.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We lost 55,000, 60,000 factories.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We probably never will have the things we did 30, 40 years ago.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You got to balance the budget. You're spending more and more. Somewhere along the line, it's going to come back and haunt us.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is a plan for us, and now we have to clean up the mess that they made.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
VELSHI: We heard a lot of it: disappointment, a lot of frustration. There is nothing in today's number that fundamentally changes the fact that we are moving generally more slowly than predicted and more slowly than we would like to be moving.
John Avlon joins me.
Let me ask you this. Ohio is a real reflection of the American population. Pretty much every issue that's going on in America -- foreclosure, energy, jobs, debt and deficit. It all plays out here.
JOHN AVLON, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Absolutely.
VELSHI: So what are you hearing?
AVLON: Well, look, I think a couple of reality checks here. I mean, that top line uptick is bad political news broad line.
VELSHI: Yes.
AVLON: I mean, it's minor uptick --
VELSHI: You're talking about the 7.9 --
AVLON: The 7.9. I know that's not what you think is important.
VELSHI: Yes.
AVLON: Here is what's really interesting, though. We have consistently talking to people. Manufacturing is starting to come back, even in places like Toledo.
The interesting statistic about here in Toledo -- when President Obama was inaugurated, January 2009, unemployment here was 12.6 percent here.
VELSHI: Wow.
AVLON: Now it's 7.5 percent. So it's consistent not only with that overall decline here but also with the dynamic where Ohio's unemployment rate is less than the nation's. That hasn't happened in decades.
So, there's a silver lining even with all the frustration about the sluggish recovery in Ohio.
VELSHI: So the issue is, like in Ohio and everywhere else -- in fact, in many of the swing states, they have Republican governors.
AVLON: That's right.
VELSHI: Who takes responsibility for the fact that in some cases you might be better off than you were four years ago? We see signs on the highway. There's one yesterday said, "No, President Obama, we're not better off than we were four years ago." So, not everybody shares the view.
But in Ohio, we talk to a lot of people in Ohio who says things are better. Who gets the credit?
AVLON: That is the big debate, because the Republicans say it has nothing to do with President Obama. It has nothing to do with the auto bailouts. It's the reforms put in place by Governor Kasich.
Of course, Democrats have a very different view. Here's what we know, especially in this Toledo area we're in right now, home of the Jeep plan, which has been, of course, a very controversial ad by the Romney campaign. The auto bailout has helped the economy. It has helped the industry. So, that is tangible. And I do think President Obama gets a degree of credit for that. But there's still this frustration about the overall trajectory. You do hear a lot of swing voters, even folks who are economically squeezed talking about frustration with deficit and debt. That comes out a surprising amount even with the pressure people feel about jobs and their paycheck.
VELSHI: Generally, we have seen that skew more toward conservative voters who think so. But we're hearing it even from liberal and Democratic voters saying, yes, I'm kind of concerned about that.
AVLON: Absolutely, just on a kitchen table level, people understand that they can't spend more than they take in and they don't understand how the government can get away with that indefinitely.
VELSHI: Yes. All right. We're continuing this trip here in these swing states.
Christine, it's very interesting, it's very instructive the things that we're learning while we're out here.
ROMANS: Yes, if you're undecided in Ohio, go find those two guys on the bus because they want to hear more about what you're going to do on Tuesday.
All right. This election is likely going to be decided by just a few of these key battleground states. You're in one of them right now, Ali.
After the break, we're going to visit a few other battleground states where CNN reporters have been talking to voters about issues that matter most to them.
The special edition of CNN NEWSROOM returns right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Welcome to the special U.S. jobs report edition of CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Ali Velshi, coming to you from Toledo, Ohio.
ROMANS: And I'm Christine Romans here in New York.
Now, Ohio may decide this election, along with a handful of swing states.
CNN has reporters across the country and in America's battleground states. We've got John Zarrella in Florida. Poppy Harlow is in Iowa. Ted Rowlands is in Wisconsin. And Kyung Lah is in Colorado.
Let me show how different these states are when it comes to job.
Let's start out in out West, in Nevada. It has the highest unemployment rate of all of the toss-up states at 11 percent.
Colorado, close to the national average. It has 8 percent.
Iowa, my home state, has one of the lowest rate in the country, 5.2 percent. There they've got a problem finding workers.
Ali, where you are in Ohio, it's 7 percent.
Finally, in Florida, 8.7 percent.
Let's go straight to Florida and CNN's John Zarrella.
John, 8.7 percent unemployment, is that the key issue voters will take to the ballot box in Florida on Tuesday?
JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There's no question about it, Christine. And, in fact, they're already taking it to the ballot box. You can see behind me here, this is the early voting line. Tomorrow is the last day for early voting and the line is probably two hours long already here now.
The key issue here with unemployment has been the construction industry, very hard hit, particularly new housing starts. The reason for that? Because there's such a glut of foreclosed existing homes that that supply is still out there to be absorbed.
And just up the coast, two hours from here, couple of hundred miles, Kennedy Space Center, coincidentally, retiring the last of the space shuttles today, Atlantis. And just that one company alone, United Space Alliance, more than 4,000 highly skilled workers lost their jobs with the closing of the space shuttle program.
So, yes, indeed, jobs in Florida is the number one issue -- Ali.
VELSHI: All right. Thanks, John.
CNN's Poppy Harlow is in Cedar Falls, Iowa. Poppy, the unemployment rate in Iowa, 5.2 percent. The much lower than the national average --
POPPY HARLOW, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Right.
VELSHI: The much lower than the national average, 7.9 percent. Talk to me about the economic issues that voters are concerned about in Iowa.
HARLOW: It's not jobs. Yes, they care about it. They want better- paying jobs, but jobs is not the number one issue here.
You know, their unemployment rate was 6 percent when the president was inaugurated. It's 5.2 percent now, far below the national average.
The numbers here tell a good story for the president. The farming sector is very strong here. The housing crisis sort of all but surpassed Iowa.
But when you dig into the numbers you see something else. Here's what people care about here, the deficit. They hate the government spending. They hate the debt.
I want you to listen to a guy that I think sums up the sentiment here as we've been driving across Iowa, Bob Bradshaw.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Is it the jobs or is it the deficit?
BOB BRADSHAW, IOWA VOTER: Both. You know, if we're not bringing it in, we shouldn't spend it. And if it's, you know, tough on us to make it better for our kids, I'm willing to sacrifice now to make it better for our kids.
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HARLOW: They very much, big picture here, and long term. Not just immediate. Not just the economy right now.
You know, one of the business owners I talked to here yesterday who runs a steel working factory, he said to me, if I run my business the way the government runs it, I'd be out of business. And he's right. And we hear that across the board. Here, it is big picture.
But I do want to bring up another issue. When it comes to jobs, they say sure the number here is good but the jobs we're getting here are paying less. That's a number that Christine brought up this morning when the jobs report came out. The fact is a lot of those jobs being created are paid about $14 an hour or less. That is an issue here in Iowa -- Christine.
ROMANS: Right. Thanks, Poppy.
Let's check in now with Ted Rowlands in West Alice, Wisconsin.
You know, Ted, Washington's inability to come together over that fiscal cliff, that's been felt where you are. How are Wisconsin voters feeling it? How is it factoring into their vote?
TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Christine, in large part of Wisconsin's worry is jobs. It's all about jobs here. And since the recession, 170,000 jobs were lost in this state.
They've only recovered about 10 percent of the jobs lost. The unemployment is a little lower than the national average, about 7 percent. But it's hovered there the past six months. There's good news and bad news, it goes back and forth in this state.
In fact, just last week, Oshkosh Defense, they make military vehicles, they announced that they're laying off 450 full-time positions. These either united autoworker employees in the Green Bay area. The president was there yesterday. Governor Romney is here in Milwaukee today.
The bottom line here in Wisconsin, it is the same thing we're feeling across the country. One day, there's good news. One day, there is bad news.
And the job losses in the Green Bay area is very bad news because those are very good jobs. That, of course, would lend to folks voting for Mitt Romney because their livelihood is directly attached to defense spending. That will translate, however, across the state -- Ali.
VELSHI: Ted, thank you.
And let's go to CNN's Kyung Lah in Denver, Colorado. Unemployment there at 8 percent, just a little bit above the national average.
Kyung, will it come down to jobs for Colorado voters?
KYUNG LAH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely. You have it absolutely right, Ali. It is about jobs. It is about how have people been personally affected by a job loss either within their own families or among friends? Here in this very key swing state we've gone down to the counties, we've talked to the key demographics and we talked to the women.
Suburban women here are critical for either party in order to grab those states. So we talked to women and they say it is about job security. Who is it going to be in White House who is going to make sure that over the next four years my family isn't going to be impacted, what I put on my kitchen table isn't going to be impacted?
Then we went out and talked to college students. They were really enthusiastic in 2008, helping Barack Obama win this state, winning the nine electoral votes. This time around they are not as enthusiastic. What the college students are telling us the reason for that is because they don't think they'll have a job when they graduate from college.
So Ali -- so Christine, you have it absolutely right. What it comes down to here in this swing state, it is about jobs and how it's affected people personally.
ROMANS: All right, Kyung Lah, and you know the White House have just released its statement on the -- on the report this morning, the jobs reports saying -- the very first words are "While more work needs to be done, the state employment report provides further evidence the U.S. economy is continuing to heal.
So both the White House and the Romney campaign weighing in. The last jobs report, of course, is not without controversy. Some even accused the Obama administration of cooking the books to bring the unemployment down. A misguided accusation, for sure. But the method used to calculate the numbers can be confusing. With so much on the line we're going to explain exactly how it works and we're going to talk to the Secretary of Labor about today's report.
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VELSHI: Now you'll recall that last month there was quite a bit of controversy when the jobs report was released and unemployment fell to 7.8 percent from eight percent. Now ticked back up slightly but last month some people on the right suggested the Obama administration had manipulated the numbers especially since they came one day after President's universally-panned the first debate performance. Jack Welch one of the greatest CEOs in the history of American business tweeted this at the time, quote, "Unbelievable jobs numbers, these Chicago guys will do anything, can't debate, so change numbers" end quote. And that sparked a firestorm of criticism aimed at Welch especially from me.
Well, this time we don't even want to give any the conspiracy theorists a chance. Christine Romans is going to break down exactly how these numbers are calculated and when -- Christine.
ROMANS: Well Ali, the report is really sort of two sides of the same coin. Think of it that way. The jobs report is actually two separate surveys. The unemployment rate comes from a survey of 60,000 households, the jobs creation number comes from a different survey of 141,000 businesses.
Now, to get that unemployment rate 2,200 census workers interviewed 60,000 households. They interview them in person and over the phone. Everyone over the age of 16 is either classified as employed, unemployed or not in the labor force. From that the government then extrapolates the unemployment rate.
Now, the job creation number comes from another sample that's the sample of 141,000 businesses who tell the government how many workers they have on their payroll. But like the household survey, the sample is meant to reflect the whole U.S. It includes factories, offices, stores, teachers, schools. Both surveys look at a particular week, or a particular pay period, usually around the 12th day of the month. So this month, it was the week of October 7th to October 13th. Households were contacted the following week to find out if they had been looking for work or were looking for a job from the 7th to the 13th.
Now businesses submitted payroll information for roughly Ali, the same period. Once all of the numbers are in, the Labor Department gives them to the President's Council of Economic Advisers, just the day before they are released -- Ali.
VELSHI: Right. It is a very -- what a great explanation. Thank you, Christine. Because I -- we do have a lot of people genuinely asking us about that.
Let's bring in the Labor Secretary of the United States Hilda Solis. Secretary Solis it's good to talk to you. We spoke a month ago.
HILDA SOLIS, UNITED STATES LABOR SECRETARY: Yes.
VELSHI: You were really steamed about the allegation that people in your department, the Bureau of Labor Statistics which is part of the Labor Department might have politicized these numbers.
SOLIS: That's -- that's correct. And I said at the time that I thought it was ludicrous and I still will back up the results of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These are hard working people. Even during as of -- you know this week they were out still coming to work even when the storm hit. They were here to crank out and get all the legitimate numbers and everything appropriately placed and ready to go.
So these are dedicated individuals, the most highly-trained and educated group of people that have run the BLS and that's an independent, you know it's an independent division of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But what I want to say is you know the job report for this month is again one picture of what is happening.
But when you look over the course of the last almost three years now that the President, three and a half years the President has been in office, we've actually made up for those job losses, and actually added 1.2 million jobs on top of that, and we're looking at building back manufacturing jobs, 500,000 or more that have been added.
VELSHI: Yes.
SOLIS: I mean, things are, you know, sure they can be better. No doubt. But I think that the path that the President has laid out is appropriate, and we look forward to working with everyone to see that we could put more people back to work.
VELSHI: Secretary Solis, let me just ask you quickly about Hurricane Sandy and given that Christine just explained how these numbers are tabulated and what is -- what is likely to be the net effect of that?
SOLIS: Well, it's -- we won't know until we get our people out on the ground again and do those surveys that have to be conducted. Certainly those states that are affected, we -- we would imagine that there is going to be some drop off of employment, but that's why the federal government is working with local government and state government with --- you saw the, you know, you saw the results of that with Romney, and sorry, with Romney -- with Christie and also with the President.
And we here at the Department of Labor are already issuing national emergency grants. We just signed off on one yesterday for New Jersey for $15 million to begin with for the cleanup and recovery of those areas that are hard hit. We should be thinking of how we can all work together on that.
VELSHI: Secretary --
SOLIS: Yes.
VELSHI: Secretary Solis, I could not agree with you more. Thanks very much for being with us. Christine.
SOLIS: Thank you.
ROMANS: Ali, you know, as we have been telling you better than expected jobs report for the month October, but the economy is struggling to gain altitude.
Final thoughts on this "Special Jobs Report" edition of CNN NEWSROOM coming right up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) ROMANS: -- surprise turned out not to be a jobs-related issue but really Hurricane Sandy. We just heard from the Labor Secretary that Hurricane Sandy is not in -- Superstorm Sandy not in these numbers this month, but you know, Ali --
VELSHI: Right.
ROMANS: -- in the months ahead, we are going to be seeing and feeling the impact of this storm in every economic statistic for the next few months.
VELSHI: And we're going to be talking about this for the next few days in this election. The unemployment rate, I just want to remind people that that 7.8 percent, 7.9 percent, 8 percent -- I have been saying the same thing you have been saying it for a long time. We concentrate too much on that, it's a very political number. We do need to consider the other things in this job report. The number of jobs created that you just talked about as well as the wages, the number of people who've been on unemployment for a long time. The quality of jobs that have come back. Take all of that into your decision when making a decision.
Christine, I will talk to you later. For the rest of you, stay right here. Carol Costello takes over this next hour where we expect to hear live from President Obama as he reacts to this -- the final jobs report -- before he puts his job on the line in just four days.
ROMANS: Carol will also speak with Allen Krueger, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors. We also want to thank our international audience around the world for watching this very special jobs report edition of CNN NEWSROOM.
Let's send it to Carol Costello now in the "CNN NEWSROOM".
