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Underwater Search; Al Qaeda Meeting

Aired April 16, 2014 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Those are just a couple words, couple examples direct from a memo released today by the college Board that will not be on the SAT test starting in 2016.

Instead, aspiring college students will be asked questions like this: "The coming decades will likely see more 'intense' clustering of jobs, innovation, and productivity in a smaller number of bigger cities and city-regions. Intense most nearly means, A, emotional, B, concentrated, C, brilliant, determined."

So, to sum it all up, studying for the SAT is becoming, apparently, unlike when we did it, less intense.

And now this. And we roll on, hour two, top of the hour. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

CNN has now learned that searchers looking for Flight 370 will soon abandon the hunt for floating debris. Translation? This search will solely be an underwater mission pinned entirely on the U.S. Navy's underwater drone, the Bluefin-21.

Right now, it's believed to be deep in an uncharted part of the Indian Ocean, but thus far these missions have not exactly been going the way they planned, forced to cut short its 16-hour seabed mapping shifts not just once, two times. The first time it hit its depth limit, the second resurfacing because of some kind of technical issue.

While it was on deck getting fixed, they did download some of the data and analyzed it once again, nothing found. So the wait, the lack of any information causing more frustration for the families of the passengers on that plane.

These are pictures of a video conference briefing with Malaysia Airlines. You see -- you hear the shouting, family members getting up and walking out. That's because this was delayed. There were all kinds of technical glitches apparently. These fed-up families, you see them here, stormed out of this briefing.

What are the challenges here? Back to this underwater search. What are the challenges of the vehicles like the Bluefin? Earlier, the head of the Australian Joint Agency Coordination Center said the sonar device will help move the search a step further, but he stopped short of pinning all hopes on this AUV.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ANGUS HOUSTON, CHIEF SEARCH COORDINATOR: I would caution you against raising hopes that the deployment of the autonomous underwater vehicle will result in the detection of aircraft wreckage. It may not. However, this is the best lead we have and it must be pursued vigorously.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Stephanie Elam, she is back on a boat there off the coast of Santa Barbara, California, for this live demonstration of the sonar technology.

So as we talk about the AUVs, and we talk about sonar, that's like taking pictures with sound, kind of.

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's a pretty good way to put it, Brooke, exactly. That's what we're looking at here and how sonar works in these incredible depths that we can't even really imagine.

I want to introduce you to James Coleman. He's the senior hydrographer with Teledyne Reson.

Your devices and your sonars are being used in the search for MH370. How does sonar work?

JAMES COLEMAN, TELEDYNE RESON: Right

Sonar comes in all shapes and sizes. This is a 7125. It's a multi- beam sonar. Side-scan sonar is a different type. But it's the primary sonar that is being used. But the fundamental principles are all the same. Sonar is going to emit sound, that sound will bounce off of the seafloor and as it receives the signal coming back to it, it will interpret it in terms of an image of what is on the seafloor or a 3-D point cluster.

ELAM: They have had trouble so far going into the water with these unmanned vehicles trying to take the sonar down and see the images. How difficult are the conditions that they're working in?

COLEMAN: It's incredibly difficult. It's because there's more to the sonar than in this whole process.

That unmanned vehicle has to have navigation systems. Navigating underwater is very complex, so it's an integration of multiple systems. It has to has communications systems, vehicle control systems and the sonar. All of those systems have to work together in order for that vehicle to dive all the way to bottom of the ocean and conduct its mission.

ELAM: So let's take a look and let's say everything is working fine. You get that data. Let's go inside and take a look at the data that you would collect in the mapping process of this from what you get from the sonar.

COLEMAN: Right. We have been mapping throughout the day here. They're going set up a grid pattern much like we have here and they're going to move that vehicle up and down along the grid pattern and that's what you see here. And so we're now at this point and we're slowly building up additional mapping information as we go back and forth. This is going to construct a map of what is on the seafloor.

We're able to see this live because we're here on the boat. We have GPS. We have all this stuff. They have to plan these missions, launch the vehicle and they don't find this out until the vehicle comes back 12 hours later. And then they download the data, which takes quite a lot of time. It's very high-density data.

ELAM: And with the side -scan sonar, the imagery that you're getting, how difficult is it to get clear resolution?

COLEMAN: Side-scan is an excellent system and it's really good in deep water like they're using it for.

This is what side-scan generally looks like. You're putting sound out to the side and it travels through the water for a period of time, hits the seafloor and then goes out. And you build up an image of what's on the bottom. Here in the shallow water of Santa Barbara, we get reflections from the surface. The image is a little more clouded. Deep, it's very, very clear.

ELAM: That's surprising to me, because you would think that that would make it worse. But you're saying the deeper they are, the less noise there is, so a clearer picture.

COLEMAN: Yes, very much. It's clear because it's a nice stable vehicle. It's just going to fly deep. There is nothing else. There are no other sound sources that are down that far deep. So it generates a very nice image.

ELAM: Brooke, here is one thing, though, is that because they're going down and they don't know what the seafloor looks like in this part of the Indian Ocean, they have to go down and see what they can get and bring it back and then send it down again, so they're constantly redoing the missions that they send these devices down, and so it takes a really long time to get this information.

BALDWIN: Do we know, Stephanie? Just curious. And maybe feeling optimistic in this moment. With sonar, what would the picture look like if they do see wreckage?

ELAM: What would the picture look like? That's a good question for you know. Would you know?

COLEMAN: It's actually almost like a photo when you get side-scan data back. You would see a photo.

If it's large wreckage, you're going be able to discern what it is. If it's fairly small, you may just be able to tell that there is an object down there that you go back and look at with more detail. But large objects like shipwrecks or a large fuselage will come out very clear.

ELAM: Do they get covered up? That deep down in the ocean, do they start getting covered up by the seafloor?

COLEMAN: There is not a lot of oceanic processes happening that deep. It's very silty there from what we have heard. There's a chance that it buried when it hit the seafloor.

(CROSSTALK)

ELAM: That's about it.

COLEMAN: There's more things happening.

ELAM: So, it's still -- it's a lot of unknowns, though, Brooke.

BALDWIN: OK. OK. Thank you so much, Stephanie and James.

And right now the underwater search for Flight 370, it involves the Bluefin-21, this unmanned underwater vehicle. But what about losing something that actually allows human eyes to scan the ocean floor firsthand, because that may be needed if debris is found?

And CNN's Gary Tuchman showing gets into one submersible to show just exactly how effective and uncomfortable that work can actually be.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): At first glance, it resembles a spacecraft more than anything else. But this is a research sub that is combing the seas doing everything from medical research to ship and air craft recovery.

JIMMY NELSON, HARBOR BRANCH OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION: We have an array of light systems on the subs so you can turn on whichever light you need.

TUCHMAN: Jimmy Nelson used to spend about 170 days a year on this sub. The Johnson Sea Link Submersible, as it's known. It's now retired at the Florida Atlantic University's Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution.

(On camera): All right. I'm ready to go.

NELSON: Ready to go.

TUCHMAN (voice-over): But other manned sea vehicles might be next in line to aid in the Malaysian Airline search.

(On camera): If this submersible or another submersible get to where the wreckage is, how effective do you think it could be in the recovery effort?

NELSON: Very effective.

TUCHMAN (voice-over): This is a view of this very submersible in the Atlantic Ocean. It can go 3,000 feet deep, but like all research vehicles it's slow. It only travels just over one mile per hour when searching. The sub was called to duty in 1986 after the Space Shuttle Challenger exploded. And it recovered some of the wreckage from the ill-fated shuttle. NELSON: We have the capability of lifting around 1,000 pounds of weight to the surface.

TUCHMAN: In the very front of the submersible, a tool called the manipulator which does the important work of grabbing, scooping and sucking up samples that are recovered.

(On camera): This sub is about 24 feet long. It's also about 11 feet tall. And it weighs about 28,000 pounds. It has enough oxygen and emergency provisions aboard for the people to survive underwater for up to five days.

(Voice-over): There is also a back cabin on the submersible called the aft observation chamber. A crew member who keeps an eye on the submersible's vital signs and another scientist shared that back area, which is only about 5. 5 feet by 3 feet.

(On camera): So just to give our viewers an idea of how tight this is, this is how you're sitting. This is how I'm sitting and you could be here for hours.

(Voice-over): But during those hours this is what's taking place.

NELSON: So we fire up the sonar system and it does a sweep and it paints us a picture as it spins around 360 degrees. If there's any solid targets on the bottom it'll beep, and it will kind of paint a small picture of what it looks like. And we could go ahead and motor that way.

TUCHMAN: The use of high-tech unmanned underwater vehicles is increasing. But Jimmy Nelson says when looking for wreckage, manned submersibles offer an important dimension.

(On camera): So you're saying that sometimes just having a human being be able to look around the corner where I could spot things that an unmanned submersible cannot spot.

NELSON: Correct.

TUCHMAN (voice-over): This submersible will not be going but others could soon be sent into action in the Indian Ocean under water in an effort to solve a mystery.

Gary Tuchman, CNN, Fort Pierce, Florida.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: I don't know if I get in that thing.

Just ahead, with investigators focusing for the search for the missing plane in such a relatively small area, how confident are they that they found the right spot? We will talk to our experts here. Also ahead, a new video shows al Qaeda's top brass in a bold public meeting. How did the U.S. miss it? And is al Qaeda working to strike again?

Also, a frantic search and more than 200 missing here after the ship, this ferry capsizes in South Korea. What went wrong? Some emotional text messages between kids on this ferry and parents waiting for word.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Welcome back. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

Right now, one Bluefin device is being -- believed to be -- I should couch that -- believed to be scouring the ocean floor for any trace of this missing plane.

Now, the Bluefin-21 actually had two glitches on its first two days on the job, cutting short its planned 16-hour scan. And so now we are waiting to see whether the Bluefin's third mission can finish without a snag.

Joining me now to discuss, oceanographer Sylvia Earle, explorer in residence with National Geographic Society, and CNN aviation Mary Schiavo, former inspector general with the U.S. Transportation Department.

So, ladies, welcome.

I should also mention that Mary also works for a law firm that represents victims and families after airplane disasters.

So, Mary, I would like to begin with you, because I'm going back to this point. I don't mean to be hammering this home, but I can't understand why they're just using this one piece of technology to search for the wreckage, this one Bluefin. Does that tell you they are just really confident in where they are? Or are there not other Bluefins to deploy?

MARY SCHIAVO, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: There is a little bit of both.

Angus Houston said they were confident on where they are and he indicated they only thought they needed the one for now. If he thought later they needed more, they would ask for more. But we have also heard from the Bluefin manufacturers there are only eight in the world. They are being used by their owners largely for underwater operations such as oil, communications, et cetera.

If they need another Bluefin, they will have to ask for one from some other owner/operator. But there are other underwater vehicles that they can use and request as well, things other than the Bluefin.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: I wanted to ask about that, because I know there were other AUVs that ultimately found the wreckage for Air France Flight 447. And, Sylvia, I talked to a former accident investigator who is very familiar with this Bluefin-21. He was working to try to find the Amelia Earhart wreckage, and he said they are using absolutely the wrong technology here. Do you agree with that or do you disagree?

SYLVIA EARLE, OCEANOGRAPHER: I think the Bluefin is a good piece of equipment and it's doing the job of surveying the area.

There are other pieces of equipment, such as were employed with the Air France. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution really takes care of one such system, but there really are not that many in the world. Think about how many airplanes there are, how many cars we have on the land, how many boats, and how few pieces of equipment that can actually go to the average depth of the ocean. It's only two-and-a- half miles.

The maximum has only been reached twice in history with a round-trip. One of them was with Jim Cameron just in 2012. That was 52 years after the first descent back in 1960. The ocean is still largely inaccessible to us. That is not good news. We have invested in going skyward, and we should, but we have neglected the ocean, and now we're paying a price.

BALDWIN: As they look, can you just remind, Sylvia, staying with you, remind us, with Air France, which AUVs were used? I believe there were three that found the wreckage. And how did they ultimately find it?

EARLE: It was actually found using much the same approach that you're seeing now with the current Bluefin system.

Autonomous underwater vehicles are relatively new. They were not available to find the Titanic, for example, and depth is a big deal. There are a number, quite a number of so-called drones that can operate in shallow water to survey and to bring back data.

But sonar-deployed equipment, heretofore towed arrays have been used, for example, with finding the Titanic, both with sonar and by using camera systems. But cameras are only operational at a very limited area. The sonar can see with sound over a much wider area.

And finding the wreckage is the key. And then, again, there are not many pieces of equipment available in the world that are capable of going to the depth where the airplane is thought to be, the average depth of the ocean. But it's 2.5 to three miles down. Imagine you're in an airplane trying to operate a piece of equipment that is towed three miles before where you are in the sky.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: I can't imagine it.

And, then, Mary, back with the Air France 447, I go back to the fact that they didn't find the wreckage until, what, two years after the fact. I know the families are pressing for answers, but at the same time, is there worth in these searchers at a point if they find nothing closing up shop for a year, not closing up shop for fully in the investigation, but in the ocean, going back to just sheer science and then coming back with fresh eyes some time later?

SCHIAVO: Well, and they will have to do that.

Once they exhaust this area, the area surrounding the four pings -- and they are 17 miles apart. And obviously they will search all around the areas, to each side of where the pings were. But if they search all the area and they find nothing, then they will have to go back and recalculate and regroup and see what else there is, because those are the four pings. That's all they have.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Mary Schiavo and Cynthia Earle, thank you both very much for your expertise here.

And as we talk -- Sylvia, Sylvia, forgive me.

And Sylvia mentioned just the depth of the ocean. You think about to the water pressure, the Bluefin-21 facing a number of challenges in this underwater search. We will map out what the underwater terrain looks like coming up, a lot of that unknown as well.

And you are looking at what may be the largest and most dangerous gathering of al Qaeda in years. And every frame of video right now is being analyzed by the United States. How concerned should the U.S. be? We will talk to a former CIA covert operations officer next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: I want to show you a piece of video now here. This is YouTube video first reported here on CNN.

What it shows is the largest and most dangerous gathering of al Qaeda in years. You can bet that the U.S. government is analyzing frame after frame after frame of this video 15.5 minutes in length.

And while critics are saying it is just one huge missed opportunity for a drone strike to take out dozens of al Qaeda's top brass here, including the global second in command, Nasser al-Wuhayshi, in the video believed to be in Yemen, he goes after the United States, saying -- and I'm quoting -- "We must eliminate the cross. The bearer of the cross is America."

It's not clear if the U.S. simply didn't know about the gathering, couldn't get a drone there in time. What is clear are militants in an open-air rally. Al Qaeda is making a bold move here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. MIKE ROGERS (R), ALABAMA: The al Qaeda threat today is more diverse and more aggressive with more threat streams than we have seen even since before 9/11. We think they are feeling empowered.

(END VIDEO CLIP) BALDWIN: All right, Mike Baker, let's talk about this, Mike Baker, former covert operations officer with the CIA.

Out of the gate here, listen, we have to assume that al Qaeda, top brass or not, has a meeting of the minds, I don't know often. Really, the question is now knowing it happened, how concerned should the U.S. be?

MIKE BAKER, PRESIDENT, DILIGENCE LLC: Well, from a counterterrorism point of view, the people that deal with this all the time, we're concerned, but we're not necessarily shocked or surprised, because there has never been a belief, necessarily, with the operators in the field and others in the community that somehow we have beaten them down, and they're not still there and they're not still targeting us and our allies.

That part of us is not disconcerting. And then there's other issue. It's been interesting as stories has developed, as the video came out, that people were very quick to say, oh, my God, how could the intel community here in the U.S. not know about this?

The same folks who belittle the community's efforts to monitor and understand what's going on and the same people who complain about the drone strikes are saying, how could they not attack them? How could they not have a drone overhead?

BALDWIN: But is that a fair question? It's possible the U.S. intelligence did know about it and did not get a drone there in time for a strike. That's a possibility, yes?

BAKER: Yes, it's a possibility. I would be speculating obviously at that point, and we're not get into sources and methods. But at the same time, it's not as if -- this is not like organizing the Democratic National Convention. Right? You're not booking a conference center and caterers and bringing in a few bands.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: This is al Qaeda, Mike. I got it. Yes.

(CROSSTALK)

BAKER: This is al Qaeda.

And in Yemen, they have got a very organized effort there. And so gathering up supporters, putting them in trucks and having a rally doesn't take a great deal of effort, quite frankly.

And again, there was this effort for a period of time to say, we have beaten them down and we have taken them out. And we have. We have taken a lot of their leadership out. But they do have almost what appears to be a bottomless well of potential recruits, of disaffected, easily manipulatable, recruitable individuals who are willing to go to the dark side on behalf of al Qaeda.

BALDWIN: Well, let's not -- I don't want to focus on the recruits. I want to focus on this number two guy, because I want to talk about who we see and also who we don't see. So, Nasser al-Wuhayshi -- Wuhayshi -- forgive me -- I knew I would botch that.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: But he's the number two guy in al Qaeda. Isn't he taking -- he's taking a bit of a risk appearing in this video. What is the message just in his presence that he's trying to tell the world?

BAKER: Well, I think part of it is internal politics.

As you pointed out, he is number two to Ayman. He is becoming more visible internally, in part, I think, in order to stake his claim as a successor to Zawahri, who has really been running the show behind the scenes since bin Laden was taken out in 2011.

So I think part of this is Wuhayshi's desire to say, look, I'm a credible successor to this organization. Part of it, it shows that he is very comfortable in that small environment and with those supporters. And again the al Qaeda branch in Yemen rightly so is a major concern for us. They show the most interest and most potential capability to reach outside of the region and strike at potential targets here in the U.S. and with our allies.

BALDWIN: We know that's where the bomb maker Ibrahim al-Asiri comes from, who was not in the video, who is deep in hiding, who makes these bombs that are virtually undetectable on planes. Again, who was in the video and who wasn't? Mike Baker, thank you, sir.

BAKER: Sure. Thank you.

BALDWIN: Coming up next, some pretty, pretty stunning video from South Korea here, where the rescue operation is under way. It is nighttime as I speak for hundreds of passengers after their ferry capsized in freezing cold water and a lot of the people on board, high school students. We will show you how the U.S. is helping in that effort.

Also, the Bluefin-21 deployed for a third time in the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. We will map out for you the rough conditions it's dealing with in a very unknown area of the world, in the Indian Ocean.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)