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At This Hour

Gaza Cease-Fire May Occur; Obama Authorizes Recon Flights Over Syria; Concern Over the Growth of ISIS; Alleged Audio of the Shooting of Michael Brown

Aired August 26, 2014 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


JOHN BERMAN, CNN HOST: Hello everyone, I'm John Berman.

MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN HOST: And I'm Michaela Pereira. Welcome to Tuesday.

We begin with breaking news @THISHOUR. A senior Palestinian official says that President Mahmoud Abbas is set to announce a Gaza cease-fire agreement one hour from now.

Just a few minutes ago, Hamas official said a truce had been reached that would end the fighting between Israel and militants in Gaza.

BERMAN: But a spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says word of a deal right now just reports.

A senior Egyptian government official tells CNN that there is no cease-fire deal. but adds we may have an announcement, he says, later today or tomorrow.

So some conflicting information here. We want to go now live to Gaza. Let's try and figure it out. Joining us now is CNN's Ian Lee on the ground. Ian, what are you hearing about the possibility of this more lasting cease-fire?

IAN LEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, John and Michaela, over the past two hours, there has been a flurry of messages to Hamas leaders as well as Islamic Jihad, saying that a cease-fire is about to happen.

One of the macabre signs of a cease-fire that we've seen in the past, right before one of these has come to pass, is an increase in fire. And just recently, we've seen rocket fire as well as there's reports of three people killed in Rafah.

But what we're hearing from Hamas' second-in-command is that he said that they are on the cusp of understanding the culminating victory for the Palestinians, saying that the cease-fire will come into effect, we're hearing, at 12:00 tonight.

Now it's 7:00 local time. That's about an hour from now, we're expecting a message from the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, about this. Now, the Israelis have been fairly tight-lipped about any sort of cease-fire, so we're going to have to wait to see at least for an hour what President Mahmoud Abbas has to say.

PEREIRA: So conflicting information from both sides, any sense of what this cease-fire agreement could look like, what could come out of it?

LEE: One of the major sticking points to this cease-fire was the opening of the borders to allow goods and services to come in and people to leave if they desire. That's something we're expecting to be in there.

Also, the reconstruction, starting that in Gaza, a lot of the power, a lot of the water, a lot of the utilities have been damaged. We're expecting some sort of agreement to involve getting those back on track as well as getting medical supplies in here as well, relief aid to these people, thousands of people are homeless right now. We're expecting relief for them and other people here in Gaza.

BERMAN: All right. Obviously, Ian, we're going to have to wait and hear more from the Israelis. A cease-fire takes two sides, actually, in this case, a lot more than two sides to make sure that it lasts.

But from the way that everyone seems to be talking, this one could be a little more lasting than previous ones.

Ian Lee, we'll get back to you when we get more developments.

Some other news this morning. the United States one step closer targeting ISIS terrorists inside Syria. President Obama has authorized reconnaissance flights over the country, according to a U.S. official.

PEREIRA: Right, this U.S. official telling CNN the flights could begin at any point. Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby says the idea of reconnaissance flights is to give themselves a good view of the ground and then identify where the targets are.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REAR ADMIRAL JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON SPOKESMAN: In general, when you are thinking about conducting operations like that, you certainly want to get as much view on the ground as you can. You want as much situational awareness as you can.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Now this move, the reconnaissance flights, comes just a week after ISIS posted a video showing the beheading of American journalist James Foley.

The U.S. has already been carrying out air strikes against ISIS, next door in Iraq. The militant group now controls a wide swath of areas stretching from Iraq into northern Syria.

PEREIRA: So could air strikes actually stop ISIS from taking any more control of any more territory across Iraq and Syria? Joining us now CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruikshank and CNN national security analyst Bob Baer. Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us @THISHOUR.

Paul, I want to begin with you. Let's talk about the effectiveness air strikes could have in Syria in stop ISIS and what would the ultimate goal and strategy be?

PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, air strikes in Syria could certainly weaken ISIS, throw them onto the back foot, constrain their freedom of movement. It might be possible to take out some of their large-scale training camps in northern Syria.

But it's also possible that the group may melt into the local population as a guerilla movement, essentially, so it's going to be very, very difficult to defeat it with air strikes alone.

BERMAN: And, Bob, the obvious question is, what does Syria, the Syrian regime, do about this?

The foreign minister for Bashar al-Assad says he would be against the United States doing this unilaterally without Syrian approval? The United States is not going to ask for Syrian approval to carry out these air strikes.

But it does beg the question, does the United States have a potential ally, albeit a strange ally, in Bashar al-Assad?

BOB BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: He's sort of an ally, but don't forget that Syrians have surface-to-air missiles. I was in the Beqaa Valley in the '80s when they shot down an American fighter plane and captured the pilot and took him to Damascus.

The Air Force has got to consider taking out some of these sites, SA-6 sites, SA-11, and then as Paul said, the whole problem is this is a guerilla force. They know how to hide. They can use civilian vehicles, and without tactical air support on the ground, forward observers, it's going to be very difficult to destroy this movement.

At the same time, we have to look at just how dangerous it is, and I'd like to bring in Tripoli, Libya, at this point, where the UAE and Egypt have been bombing targets, they are so worried about this al- Qaeda-like threat, ISIS-like threat, whatever you want to call it.

It is a serious risk to the rest of the Middle East, and we have to find a way to contain it.

PEREIRA: But containing it and dealing with Syria, Paul, that's a concern there. Are you talking about sort of dealing with a lesser of two evils?

CRUICKSHANK: Well, it may well be the lesser of two evils. ISIS, there's a huge concern about it in Washington, and even greater concern all over Europe. The concern is this is a potential threat against the West. This is a group with up to a thousand European recruits in its ranks, tens of millions of dollars training camps, and a real, potential long-term danger here in the United States.

BERMAN: You know, Bob, you were talking about the fact that you need some kind of forward reconnaissance here.

Do you think there needs to be some sort of special forces presence for the U.S. on the ground in Syria or at least maybe trying to work much more closely with not the ISIS resistance inside Syria but the more pro-Western rebels fighting against the Assad regime?

BAER: I wonder about the pro-Western rebels, how effective they are. They haven't done so well against Bashar al-Assad, and I think at this point one strategy the Pentagon is considering is using Joint Special Operations Command. That's Delta and the SEALs and send them across the border in Syria in stealth missions.

Those forces are very well qualified, combat-experienced, and if it helps to decapitate this regime, they are the ones to do it.

PEREIRA: Bob, Paul, I want you both to stick with us. We're going to take a short break.

We want to talk to you about another aspect of this. We've seen, in increasing numbers, a number of young, Western men getting recruited by ISIS.

Why is this happening? The terrorist group has hundreds of Europeans its ranks. What exactly is drawing them to their ideology?

BAER: Plus, newly released audio allegedly capturing the moment that Michael Brown was shot dead by a police officer. You have to listen to this.

Does it raise more questions than answers? We'll speak with a forensic audio experience. We're going to talk about a pause in the shooting and what that mean?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PEREIRA: Back to our breaking news, we have heard word that a senior Palestinian official says that President Mahmoud Abbas is set to announce a Gaza cease-fire.

Only problem is, we've not had confirmation or acknowledgment from the Israeli side. They say that these are just reports.

We also know that has now caused a barrage of fire of into Israel from Gaza.

I want to bring in our Ben Wedeman who is in Jerusalem, to tell us what he's been experiencing there. Ben?

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Israeli officials are saying these reports from Palestinian officials that a cease-fire will soon be announced are simply just reports, and within the last few minutes, there have been rockets fired out of Gaza into Israel.

Now, oftentimes, before a cease-fire takes effect, both sides take that opportunity for one last salvo to be fired before quiet begins, but at this point, as I said, Israeli officials very tight-lipped about it.

The Israeli media on the other hand is reporting that within the next hour or so a cease-fire will begin. But as I said the Israelis are not commenting at this point.

Michaela?

BERMAN: Yeah, Ben, there does seem to be a lot of discussion about it in the media, certainly on the Palestinian side.

What do you make of the fact that the announcement is coming from the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, not directly from Hamas or from inside Gaza?

WEDEMAN: Well, it's also coming from senior Hamas officials as well, but it seems that the announcement will come from Mahmoud Abbas

This would indicate that those involved in this mediation, particularly the Egyptians, want him to have take the credit in a sense or partially take the credit for this agreement, but we'll have to wait and see.

Certainly the fact that the Israelis aren't saying anything would indicate that maybe it's not quite as certain as the Palestinians are indicating. It may be simply that the Israelis are going to say, OK, you say a cease-fire begins; let's see if the fire actually ceases.

BERMAN: Yeah. Prove it. All right, Ben Wedeman in Jerusalem for us.

Nevertheless, we do expect some more developments on this within the next hour, so we'll check back in with Ben and also Ian Lee inside Gaza if anything else will occurs.

PEREIRA: In the meantime, we turn now to ISIS, where the U.S. is ramping up its fight against the Islamist group. The president has OKed surveillance flights, or reconnaissance flights, over Syria to spy on ISIS targets.

Air strikes could be the next step. Some experts argue though that these extremists have the home field advantage.

BERMAN: Joining us again, CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank, also CNN national security analyst Bob Baer.

Paul, I want to start again with you here because we're talking about the possibility of air strikes against ISIS inside Syria. If this were to happen, what would ISIS do?

CRUICKSHANK: Well, I think it could possibly be a red line for ISIS. Syria is their stronghold. They may see this as an existential threat, and they may move their very significant resources toward attacking the West.

I think there will be concern they could attack U.S. interests in Jordan, Lebanon, or Turkey and also perhaps attack Europe. This is a group with up to a thousand European troops. They have the opportunity to train them and send them back. But it's also a group that has hundreds of former officers back in Europe and there may well be attacks from these individuals as well.

So, a lot of concern. Also concern that there may be some lone wolf attacks, people inspired and supportive of ISIS but who haven't traveled over to this region.

PEREIRA: Paul, let me stick with you for a second, I also want to get Bob's take on this in a second as well.

This jumping off point, you talk about these thousands of recruits of European, even Americans we're seeing being recruited by ISIS. What is it that we're seeing that is driving these young people, mostly men, to their ideology, to their extremism? How are they resonating so well with these people?

CRUICKSHANK: These people who are joining ISIS from the west feel that they are doing God's work, that it's their religious duty to go and join the group. This Islamic State that they have declared is part of Muslim destiny. So it's a very powerful recruiting argument that this group is using. The problem is there's a small but significant number of Muslims in Europe and in the west who are alienated and who are attracted to these distorted interpretations.

BERMAN: Bob, what do you make of these?

BOB BAER, FORMER CIA CASE OFFICER: I agree. These kids are outsiders. I spent a couple of weeks in a place called Beeston outside Nottingham in Britain interviewing them, young Pakistani descendants. They saw no future in Britain and they identified with Islam. Frankly, they were the most hostile Muslim's I have ever met. They were looking for a cause, something like Syria or Iraq. I can see why they went over there.

As I said, they are completely uncompromising and ready for violence, but in a society like Britain, they feel that they are frozen out and they turn to Islam and turn to jihad next. Not all of them of course, but there's enough to pose a considerable threat to the west and the United States. Remember, they can come to this country without visas.

PEREIRA: Paul, do you get any sense that within the Muslim faith that folks are trying to work against this threat, that they are trying to sort of reintegrate back into the fold these disenfranchised young people?

CRUICKSHANK: That's absolutely going on. For example, in the U.K., I've spoken to many people involved in these efforts from the Muslim community, trying to engage with these people, to deradicalize them. But they are more concerned now than they have ever been. Very, very worried about these youngsters going off to Syria and Iraq, being radicalized. Very worried about what's going to happen when they come home. I think if there are U.S. strikes in Syria, anger levels among these kind of people is going to boil to unprecedented levels.

BERMAN: You saw David Cameron, the Prime Minister, cancel a vacation and headed back home when James Foley, the incident happened last week. You can see the obvious fear there among U.K. officials.

Paul Cruickshank, Bob Baer, great to have you there.

PEREIRA: Concerning but important conversation. Thank you so much, guys

BERMAN: Ahead for us @THISHOUR, you have to listen to this, it's an audio recording allegedly from the moment that teenager Michael Brown was killed by a police officer. When you listen you hear multiple gunshots, you also hear a pause. What does it tell us about the deadly encounter? We are going to a forensic audio expert and out legal analyst, a defense attorney because he thinks this could be a game changer.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: A CNN exclusive now in the shooting death of Michael Brown. CNN has obtained an audio recording that is alleged to be from the exact moment that a police officer opened fire on the unarmed teenager. Now, it was recorded unintentionally during a video chat by a man who lives near the scene of the shooting in Ferguson, Missouri.

PEREIRA: We're going to play the recording for you to listen to it itself. It's a little distracting. Try to ignore the man talking. Listen behind that. You'll hear the gun shots.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You are pretty. You are so fine. Just going on some of your videos. How could I forget?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PEREIRA: We should point out CNN has not been able to independently verify that recording.

BERMAN: Now, CNN forensic audio expert Paul Ginsberg is joining us now. He has been listening to this all morning for us here at CNN. He's a professional at Audio Laboratories. We also have Danny Cevallos here, defense attorney extraordinary to help us analyze this.

Paul, I want to go to you first, I should point out you worked for the FBI, CIA, all sorts of agencies. You did analysis on the Sandy Hook investigation, the school massacre up there, and I know you have been analyzing this audio. When you listen to it, what does it tell you?

PAUL GINSBERG, CNN FORENSIC AUDIO EXPERT: It tells me that there were six gunshots and there was a pause for a little over three seconds followed by another four gunshots. All of the gunshots seem to be identical in nature, but there was this pause after the first six.

PEREIRA: What is the significance of the pause? In your experience, what does it tell you that could have been going on?

GINSBERG: Well, there could have been a reloading of the weapon or there could have been movement or getting into another position or any -- any number of different reasons. Of course, we would love to have had video of this event, but unfortunately all we have to go by are witnesses and this audio now.

BERMAN: And we're bringing in Danny Cevallos here because, Danny, that pause could be crucial. And I expect if it does become evidence in a possible case, we'll hear very different accounts of what happened during that period.

DANNY CEVALLOS, DEFENSE ATTORNEY, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Absolutely. So different police departments have different approaches to training on the use of force. Some teach anywhere from one to three shots stop and assess. But no matter what, all are taught on some level to shoot then assess, shoot then assess, so when you hear that sort of cluster, some might argue that maybe this was something that was in his training, shoot up to three times, stop assess and then if the threat is still coming, shoot again.

That's just conjecture. Police officers are not taught to shoot to kill. They are taught to shoot to stop the threat. That is going to be key in this case. The bottom line, though, with these guidelines, in a way you can throw them out because if you take the same officer, same training, same guidelines and put each of them individually under high stress situations, I can virtually assure you that you will get different shooting responses from each of them because ultimately we're all individuals. We all assess fear and threats differently.

PEREIRA: Now, another point to be made, we know he was hit six times. We also know that the officer will be accountable for each and every one of those shots -- not only the ones that were fired but the ones that hit him. And now there is evidence of, or at least audio evidence that will be taken into consideration, about how many shots were fired.

CAVALLOS: I think that's important. Like you said, he has to justify each bullet, and once you get two, three seconds in between, then that becomes much more difficult to explain to a jury. No matter where you come from, unless maybe you are somebody with a history in firearms or defensive training or lethal force use, you might view it differently.

But the bottom line, on the whole, the members of the public are going to say, well, you had these few seconds here. I think that is going to start getting more difficult. The bottom line is he's going to have to articulate, if there is a case, that there was a continuing threat during those three seconds.

BERMAN: He had time to make a decision. Was it reasonable? I think that's why it could be so key. Paul, anything else you hear there?

GINSBERG: Well, I think that this is also going to go to credibility and, of course, to see whether it agrees with the report, the event report that was filed by the officer and others on the scene. PEREIRA: Again, that is information that we have yet to see. The

investigations continue. I know there's a federal, state, local one that's going on.

I want to say thank you to Paul Ginsberg. Your expertise on this has been just incredible for us. Thanks for being so available. Danny, giving the legal perspective as well.

I happened to ask of the great uncle of Michael Brown, he spoke that the eulogy yesterday, he joined me on "NEW DAY" today. We spoke to him about that audio recording. We'll hear from him and what he had to say a little later in this hour.

BERMAN: Very interesting development there, to be sure. Now ahead for us, in Napa Valley, the damage in the streets, it is all too obvious. Put a calculator to some of the economic damage. How much will it cost after the strongest earthquake there in 25 years?

And Burger King making big, big waves, going north to Canada. It's not just about the coffee. It's about taxes too. We'll tell you why next.

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