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U.K. Terror Alert; Obama ISIS Strategy; Russia on Military Buildup; ISIS Targets Pope

Aired August 29, 2014 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Good afternoon. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Thank you so much for joining me here. You're watching CNN.

The White House - the White House has no plans to raise the threat level here in the United States because of the Islamic terror group ISIS. But we can tell you today that the United Kingdom has now officially raised its terror threat level today to severe. That is the second highest level there. You see the different rankings on the screen. Translation, they believe in -- with the severe level that attack is highly likely. But let's also be clear that there is no information that one will happen soon.

What jolted Britain into action was the brutal murder of American James Foley, who was beheaded by an ISIS fighter who spoke with a British accent. You remember the video. Now, the root cause of the terror threat, according to the British prime minister, David Cameron, is Islamic extremism which Cameron calls a quote/unquote "poisonous political ideology supported by a minority."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID CAMERON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: It believes in using the most brutal forms of terrorism to force people to accept a warped world view and to live in an almost medieval state. A state in which its own citizens would suffer unimaginable brutality, including barbaric beheadings of those who refuse to convert to their warped version of Islam, the enslavement and raping of women, and the widespread slaughter of Muslims by fellow Muslims, and, of course, exporting of terrorism abroad.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Now, the U.K. is so concerned about the ISIS threat that they are talking about making new laws, creating new laws to take away passports. CNN's Karl Penhaul is live for us in London. He attended that news conference with the British prime minister. Also on the phone with me, CNN national security analyst Juliette Kayyem.

But, Karl, to you first. You know, David Cameron, again, he said that there is no specific threat to the United Kingdom. So how did he come to this conclusion, how did he explain to members of the media the raising of the terror level today?

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly, Brooke, as you've heard, a lot of tough talk by Prime Minister David Cameron, and this in effect raising the threat level to its highest level in three years now. But as you say, driving this is what he sees as the threat from British jihadis choosing to return from Syria or Iraq.

Now British intelligence services estimate there are around 500 Britains currently fighting in Syria or Iraq with IS or with other jihadi groups there. Some other British parliamentarians put the figure much higher and say, in fact, we really haven't got a clue how many there are out there.

But that threat, of course, is nothing new, not only in Iraq and Syria, but we've known for a long time that Britains may be there, but even before that in Afghanistan. So really not clear that there is anything right now at the heart of this.

Although, of course, the prime minister has been under pressure to show that he is doing something, especially in the light of that brutal execution of American journalist James Foley. And next week, of course, Prime Minister Cameron said that's when he's going to talk to parliament about specific measures that could include withdrawing passports from those suspected of returning from jihadi combat zones. It could also include putting travel bans on those seeking to travel to those areas. But really, for many people, they look at this as a little bit more of the same. And even David Cameron himself said that this is likely to be a generational battle. It could take years or even decades, in his words, to fight the threat of radical Islam both abroad and here in Britain on the home front, Brooke.

BALDWIN: It's interesting you say that, calling it a generational battle, Karl.

Juliette, let me just bring you in because as we focus so much with the terror threat level being raised in the United Kingdom, the U.S., you know, listening to the Pentagon briefing a little while ago, the White House briefing, very clear, you know, U.S. not raising the terror threat level here at home. We know that the U.S. is talking to Britain. How does the United States, Juliette, how do we assess when to raise the level? What would the U.S. -- factors the U.S. would be looking at?

JULIETTE KAYYEM, NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST (via telephone): Well, there's a number of factors and obviously what Britain did would be relevant in an assessment. A couple years ago, though, we , the United States, essentiality abandoned that very famous, if not infamous color code system and now has a very different process called the National Threat Alert or Advisory System and it's essentially an interagency approach to figure out, one, whether the threat is increased, and, two, whether it's imminent. And, finally, whether it's specific geographically or to a particular industry.

So it's a rigorous process. It's been taken out of the political process, given that there has been accusations that the color code was used politically. And it seems right at this stage, given the differences between the threat to Britain versus no known specific threat in the United States that we would not elevate at this stage and should work with Britain to assure their safety and security, and then have a - you know, sort of a combination of shared intelligence and diplomatic efforts.

BALDWIN: What about - OK, so that's the point about the threat level. What about David Cameron's point about the number of British citizens who have gone to the Middle East to fight with ISIS or other terror organizations? I mean to Karl's point, you know, no one really can conclusively put a number on that. But we do know, you know, perhaps several hundred going over, being radicalized, some coming back, presumably with British passports, that the Pentagon we know said several dozen Americans have joined terrorist groups overseas. How concerned is the U.S. about the Americans coming back home?

KAYYEM: With U.S. passports, very concerned. And that's why there has been an incredible focus on the travel of individuals to areas and whether they are there for a long period of time. So remember this guy, McCain, who just two days ago was killed in Syria.

BALDWIN: OK.

KAYYEM: Not by us, but by ISIS. I thought one of the good news stories about it was that he had been traced by U.S. intelligence and counterterrorism officials for some time before that because of his travel.

BALDWIN: That's right, he was flagged.

KAYYEM: And that is going on every day. Right, he was flagged and they essentially lost him in Turkey. Look, I - you know, it is a porous world with open borders. So -- and finding out where everyone is, is almost - it's just impossible for perfect security, but certainly a particular behavior is going to trigger visa controls, recognizing that we also have international commerce and global activity that have to survive any threat. In other words, we have to make travel relatively easy in this world as well.

BALDWIN: OK, Juliette Kayyem, thank you so much for hopping on the phone to talk through this. And Karl Penhaul for us in London, appreciate you very, very much.

Well, let's talk about the president here because the last we heard from President Obama was yesterday afternoon. A lot of people were thinking, OK, maybe this is the moment, this is when the U.S. says, you know, it's go time. But that didn't happen. And this particular statement seems to have shocked some people.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't want to put the cart before the horse. We don't have a strategy yet. I think what I've seen in some of the news reports suggests that folks are getting a little further ahead of where we're at than we currently are.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So a lot of folks today are saying, are you kidding? David Gergen with me now from Cambridge, Massachusetts. He has served a succession of presidents, both parties, from the Ford administration to Bill Clinton. He is our CNN senior political analyst.

David Gergen, welcome to you.

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hello, Brooke.

BALDWIN: So, let's flip this on the head, beginning with three words, "gulf war two." The United States goes in, invades Iraq, overthrew the ruler, the dictator, Saddam Hussein, then stood back, watched the gates of hell open in ways that the U.S. had never imagined. So given, you know, the state of play right now in this part of the world, what is the line, David, between, you know, waffling and not going in and creating maybe an even bigger mess. One that perhaps the U.S. Couldn't get out of?

GERGEN: It's a good question, well stated. And, Brooke, you know, in years before you were born, we suffered from something called the Vietnam syndrome. And that was after we went into Vietnam and it was such -- became such a mess there, for years thereafter American policymakers were extremely reluctant to commit force or to think about taking on another adversary. You know, there was just a resistance at home and people didn't want to do it.

And now what we're seeing is really an Iraq syndrome. And after the mess we've created in Iraq, there's real reluctance, understandable reluctance. And President Obama, as the leader of caution, prudence as he would call it, in using force and trying to come up with a plan, a comprehensive plan and - so yesterday you have to give him points for honesty I suppose but he said we don't have a strategy. But at the same time, that's highly unorthodox for a president to confess. I don't have a plan - I don't have a strategy.

BALDWIN: It is, isn't it?

GERGEN: Don't know where we're going from here. I mean, like, whoa, that caused a lot of people to say, well, that's what we've been worried about all along, you're using force and you don't know what you're doing with it.

BALDWIN: OK. That's interesting that that's your reaction. I know Jim Acosta - and we'll talk to Jim - he's pushing Josh Earnest a little bit in the White House briefing today and he was saying, well, you know, the strategy where I specifically - about, you know, asking for congressional permission and this and that. But I listen to people like you, David Gergen. And if you were whoaed by that, then I'll consider myself whoaed as well.

You talk about the president's, you know, prudence. And it sounds as though the military is giving the president, you know, options. Options are on the table. And so far, you know, the president is saying, you know, sorry, this is not going to get it. We're going back to the drawing board. I mean do we have any idea what the president might be asking for that perhaps he's just not getting from his national security team?

GERGEN: Well -- the first thing, Brooke, one has to do in an administration like this is to figure out, what is your goal? What is your long term objective here?

BALDWIN: What is the goal?

GERGEN: And I must tell you, I think - I think there's confusion and disagreement within the ranks of the administration about what the goal should be.

BALDWIN: Huh.

GERGEN: We've seen now the president say, well, we'd like to - we'd like to sort of basically contain. That was the first argument for using force. We don't want - we don't want ISIS to threaten the Kurds and we don't want them to threaten these people up on the mountain top and we're going to contain that. We're not - we're going to prevent them from moving forward.

After the beheading of James Foley, that horrific moment, you know, John Kerry came out and said, we've got to destroy ISIS. And the secretary of defense came out and said, this is a huge threat. Well, yesterday, the president was not talking about destroying ISIS, he was talking about rolling it back or containing. And until they resolve what it is they're trying to do. It's been reported, for example, that the more hawkish group wants really to destroy, that's in the administration, led by the State Department, but the more cautious group, and President Obama seems to be in that group, is more interested in trying to prevent ISIS from taking over Iraq. You know, Syria may be a hell hole, but try to preserve Iraq and try to contain ISIS from doing that.

BALDWIN: But to your point, and this point was also made in the White House briefing today, that there does seem to be certainly - and this is, I'm sure, healthy in any good debate, you know, a spectrum of opinions as far as U.S. involvement in Syria. And Josh Earnest was clear in saying, well, you know, the cabinet is on the same page with the commander in chief. But given your point, it does make one wonder if they really are.

GERGEN: Well, it's certainly beneath the surface. One sense (ph) is very different sets of views. And that's been true in the administration. It's been true of many administrations, there are different points of view. But the president has fairly consistently come down on the side of caution, his more cautious advisers. And, you know, in this case, he's got people like John Kerry, he's got someone like Samantha Power, people who believe that we ought to be very aggressive, especially in these humanitarian situations where so many people are being slaughtered as in Syria, that we ought to be much tougher than we are.

And I think the president is genuinely divided, and what he's trying to do right now, he's going to Europe next week to talk to European allies. He's trying to round up enough nations in Europe and in the Arab world that he's got a coalition of the willing that would be willing to apply some of the force, and then he would be more willing to use force. But this is a classic case almost right now of looking like he's leading from behind.

BALDWIN: A coalition of the willing.

GERGEN: Coalition of the willing.

BALDWIN: We'll see who jumps in that soon enough, I suppose. David Gergen, thank you so, so much.

GERGEN: Thanks, Brooke. Thank you.

BALDWIN: Ahead here this afternoon on CNN, is Pope Francis caught in the ISIS crosshairs? There are reports the terrorist group wants to kill the pontiff. How is the Vatican responding when it comes to protecting the leader of the Catholic Church. We'll discuss that.

Also ahead, what drives someone to become a terrorist and what draws these young, you know, late teens, 20s, American men and women to turn on their country and fight for the enemy? We'll discuss that.

But first, an invasion or an incursion? Whatever you want to call it, the U.S. And NATO both say that Russian troops are in Ukraine. The Russians say images of these troops must be from a videogame. Yes, that's what they're saying. We're live in Moscow, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Hi, I'm Brooke Baldwin. You're watching CNN.

We have to talk about this reported buildup of Russian troops inside Ukraine on Ukrainian soil. Look at the map and let me tell you that today NATO called it a quote/unquote "serious escalation of Russian aggression." Ukraine described it as a full scale invasion. What does the U.S. call it? Well, President Obama is steering away from the term "invasion," but his press secretary today said what Russia is doing inside Ukraine with as many as a thousand troops coming together there puts Russia at risk for even more sanctions.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSH EARNEST, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The president is traveling to Europe next week. He'll have the opportunity to meet with a number of our NATO allies. And the situation in Ukraine is a prominent item on the agenda. And I'm confident that there will be serious discussions about imposing additional economic costs on Russia.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So you've heard here from NATO, from Ukraine, from, you know, now the U.S. What is Russia saying? This is what Russia is saying. The foreign minister says these satellite images showing Russian artillery inside Ukraine are, wait for it, from computer games.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SERGEY LAVROV, RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER (through translator): From the very beginning of the crisis, we have been blamed for everything. There have been reports that there are photographs from space showing movements of Russian troops. But as it turned out, it was computer games and the images were taken from there. And the latest allegations are more or less the same kind.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: All right, so still today in another twist, Russia's Vladimir Putin offered a kind of reprieve from the violence. Let me take you straight to Moscow to CNN's Matthew Chance.

And, Matthew, we know that Putin ordered a quote/unquote "humanitarian corridor." Tell me what that is.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, he called upon the pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine who had surrounded government forces after making some significant military gains over the past couple of days to open a humanitarian corridor to allow Ukrainian government soldiers out of the battle zone, in his words, to allow them to keep their lives and to rejoin their families. That call was in itself condemned by the government of Ukraine in Kiev and they say -- the officials there saying that, look, it indicates just how much control Vladimir Putin has over the rebels that he would even make this request, adding to the growing body of evidence that it's Vladimir Putin that's pulling the strings of the insurgency in the east of that country, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Well, speaking of pulling the strings and having control here, we now know, Matthew, that the U.S. State Department has reported that families in Russia do not know where their sons are being sent, but then they're seeing their bodies returned for burial. What is Vladimir Putin telling these -- his own people about what's happening in Ukraine?

CHANCE: I mean, look, there are human rights groups inside Russia itself, never mind the State Departments, the Soldiers Mothers Committee for one, which is a very prominent human rights group that's held the government and the military to account here in Russia since 1991. They have been investigating this. They've been getting a lot of phone calls, a lot of messages, a lot of contacts with the wives and the mothers and the family members of people serving in Russian armed forces sort of trying to find out their whereabouts, trying to find out, on many instances, how their loved ones were killed. It seems that the accounts coming from the families are that these soldiers were in fact deployed to Ukraine.

Something that's been denied categorically by the Russian authorities. They're saying there are no Russian groups on the ground as far as they're concerned. Despite that growing body of evidence, the arrests in Ukraine of 10 Russian paratroopers who were parading on television, the secret grave sites that have appeared in various parts of Russia where there are military bases and from which it's speculated military forces were deployed. Despite all of that, the Russian government is persisting with this notion that it's not deploying any troops on the ground.

Now, why it's perpetuating that veil of - you know, that thin veil of disguise over its deployments, I think, is an all-together different question.

BALDWIN: We don't know. I agree with you, Matthew Chance. Thank you so much, in Moscow for us.

And we'll stay on this here because one question when it comes to Russia, Ukraine, is U.S. military action an option? If so, what would it look like? How would that play out? We'll talk to a retired army lieutenant general about that, about strategy ahead.

But first, does ISIS want to kill the pope? According to one report, yes. What additional steps are being taken to protect the pontiff? We'll talk about that with John Allen, coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: There are lots of questions about the safety of Pope Francis. An Italian newspaper reports the pope is the target of ISIS militants. El Tempo (ph) cites unidentified Israeli sources as saying they believe ISIS has the pope, quote/unquote, "in the crosshairs." Senior Vatican analyst John Allen is here with me.

And, John Allen, how serious is this?

JOHN ALLEN, CNN SENIOR VATICAN ANALYST: Well, look, I mean, at one level, given what's going on in the world, you can never completely dismiss the prospect of an ISIS threat against anyone, up to and including the pope. That's --

BALDWIN: This isn't just anyone. This is the pope.

ALLEN: This isn't just anyone, quite right. However, that said, you know, the Vatican publicly is very much playing this down, saying they don't believe this is serious, there's no climate of alarm. And that, of course, is in part because of the nature of the report itself, as you said, a report in an Italian newspaper citing unnamed sources in Israeli intelligence talking about a kind of hypothetical potential threat against the pope. There's no suggestion of any hard intelligence that would tell you that a plot is actually imminent.

Now, on the other hand, I can also guarantee you that the Vatican security people right now are having conversations with their opposite members in Italy, in the United States and elsewhere about whether or not there might be some suggestion of something and what, you know, common sense precautions they might want to take.

BALDWIN: We - we were just talking in commercial break about, though, how, you know, how fun it is to cover this pope and how accessible this pope is and how he, you know, often walks amongst the people. And so even though the Vatican may be saying, we need to, you know, ratchet up security because of this threat, do you think that would actually happen?

ALLEN: Well, you know, I said immediately after Francis was elected, that the whole world may be charmed by him. The one constituency that is not, is his security detail. Like I can tell you for sure, sales of heart pills at the Vatican pharmacy went through the roof, OK, in the first couple months.

Now, look, I mean he has gotten better. I mean the argument that was made to him -- that worked is not that you're putting yourself at risk, frankly, that's not a -- that doesn't cut a lot of ice with him. The argument that worked was, you're making life more difficult for the people who are charged with keeping you safe.

BALDWIN: OK.

ALLEN: And that moved him. And so you -- we've seen in public the kind of evolution of Francis. He's much more willing to allow his security detail to get in place before he hops off the jeep or plunges into a crowd. He's --

BALDWIN: He is. That's what we don't see. That's what we're not aware of.

ALLEN: Yes. I mean he's more willing to -- when people want to hand him things, he makes sure that one of his security guys does through it, does a kind of cursory examination before he takes it and stuff like that.

BALDWIN: OK.

ALLEN: Now that said, look, keeping any world leader right now safe is a hard job. Keeping this world leader safe, this kind of spontaneous, let it all hang out kind of people's pope, it's an especially challenging task.

BALDWIN: Heart pills at the Vatican, huh? Good one. Thank you so much.

ALLEN: You bet.

BALDWIN: Nice to see you in person here.

Coming up next, Americans turning on their home land and fighting for the enemy. We're going to stay on this story and the brutality that is ISIS. But what drives these young men to join the fight to become terrorists? Well, we'll ask an expert about that.

Also ahead this hour, Nascar driver Tony Stewart is racing this weekend, and he is speaking out for the first time about the accident on a track just a couple of weeks ago which killed another driver. We will play for you what he said just this afternoon.

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