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John Kerry Selling Idea Of U.S. Military Action Against ISIS To Arab Leaders; British Citizen David Haines Apparently Executed In Newest ISIS Video

Aired September 13, 2014 - 18:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

RANDI KAYE, CNN ANCHOR: You are in the CNN NEWSROOM. Hello, everyone. Good evening. I'm Randi Kaye, in New York.

America's top diplomat is overseas selling the idea of U.S. military action against ISIS to as many Arab leaders as will listen. According to the state department, John Kerry is asking for support, and he's getting it. This is Kerry meeting with Egypt's president today. He's also been in Turkey, and Saudi Arabia on this trip.

Kerry's message to those leaders is this. The fight against ISIS is not religious, and it's an effort that the entire world should get behind. Elise Labott, our global affairs correspondent, is in Cairo.

ELISE LABOTT, CNN FOREIGN AFFAIRS REPORTER: Well Randi, Egypt is the latest stop on secretary Kerry's Mid East tour to build support for a global coalition to combat is militants.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

LABOTT (voice-over): Earlier in the week, Kerry was in Iraq, trying to boost the new Iraqi government. Then he was in Saudi Arabia, meeting with leaders of ten Arab nations, trying to enlist Sunni Arab support the coalition and for the new Iraqi government that he traveled to Ankara where he met with Turkish leaders trying to see what they could do for the coalition.

Here in Egypt, the heart of the Arab world, secretary Kerry asked president al-Sisi to scam the flow of foreign fighters and financing which is really the lifeblood of this group. The U.S. also sees those foreign fighters transiting from Egypt into Syria and Iraq, stopping and sharing their knowledge with extremist groups in the Sinai, which is why the U.S. says ISIL is as much a threat to Egypt and it is to elsewhere in the region.

Secretary Kerry also asked Egypt to get its religious clerics to come speak out against mosques in Friday prayers. The (INAUDIBLE) of Egypt, the country's top cleric just issued a very tough statement, condemning ISIS. So the U.S. wants to see more of that.

JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: So we're very grateful at both Egypt and the Arab league have supported this coalition every step of the way. And in each of the meetings that I had today, we discussed how we could better accelerate the efforts in bringing more nations on board and in dividing up the responsibilities. (END VIDEOTAPE)

LABOTT: And just who will be doing what in this global coalition still needs to be hammered out. From Cairo, secretary Kerry is traveling to Paris where he'll attend a conference of countries that are expected to take part in the coalition. And from there he travels to New York to the U.N. general assembly, where the fight against ISIS is definitely going to be topping the agenda -- Randi?

KAYE: Elise Labott, thank you very much.

A former top commander of American and NATO troops in Afghanistan is weighing in on the threat posed by is. In an exclusive interview with CNN, retired four-star General Stanley McChrystal talked to our Erin Burnett about why ISIS is unlike other terror threats.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GEN. STANLEY MCCHRYSTAL, FORMER COMMANDER OF U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN: I think they are very significant threat on several levels. I think first, there were threat to the existence of the state of Iraq. They're clearly a threat to Syria. I think they're a threat to the United States, because they have the aspiration to be a transnational terrorist movement, establish a caliphate from which they can push ideas.

One of the things that's frightening about ISIS now that al-Qaeda had not really been able to do is they control terrain. No in one sense, that makes them vulnerable, because they have something they have to defend and administer.

ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST, OUTFRONT: They have to protect it.

MCCHRYSTAL: On the other hand, when you have terrain, you have the opportunity to provide goods and services to a population to do all of the things of the state. And if you can do that, to a level that's accepted by the population, even if it's not loved, they have the opportunity to get let legitimacy they shouldn't have. And overtime that legitimacy could make them pretty difficult to them.

BURNETT: You talk about ISIS as a threat to the United States. What makes you sure, and what makes you so concerned about that threat?

MCCHRYSTAL: Well, you can never be 100 percent sure, but the number of foreigners, typically people of Middle Eastern descent who have gone from Europe and the United States and other places back into Syria or Iraq to join ISIS creates a pool of people likely to go home. So that's one. That's the most obvious ability to go back in to strike America or other parts of the world. I think that's a very real problem.

But I think the wider problem with stability in the region matters to us on many levels. We used to think about just the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf. But it's much more complex now. We're in an inner connected world where what happens anywhere essentially matters everywhere. And so I think the idea that ISIS can grow so fast, be so violent, be

pushing for the establishment of a very extreme caliphate could create instability in a region that is going to have huge effects on the world. So I don't think it's something that anyone in the world, much less United States, can allow.

BURNETT: So this is a significant of a threat of any you faced while you were in it Iraq fighting the insurgency?

MCCHRYSTAL: I think so.

BURNETT: Absolutely. So this is that serious.

MCCHRYSTAL: ISIS is a serious threat.

BURNETT: So the United States has conducted more than 150 air strikes in Iraq. Of course, the president says he's going to start striking in Syria. There are 1,700 U.S. troops in Iraq. But the administration right now seems a bit torn on what word to use to describe all of that. I want to play for you what secretary Kerry had to say as well as his spokesperson for the department of defense.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE REPORTER: Is the United States at war with is? It sure sounds from the president's speech that we are.

JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: I think that's the wrong terminology.

REAR ADM. JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: Make no mistake. We know we are at war with ISIL.

BURNETT: Is this war?

MCCHRYSTAL: Well, I mean, you can trip over and argue about whether it's a war for congressional purposes. If you're on the ground and people are getting killed to a soldier it feels like war and to the population it feels like war. So it's a struggle.

BURNETT: Is the United States willing -- I mean, the end, at least as I understand it, is to degrade and destroy ISIS.

MCCHRYSTAL: We have identified ISIS as a United States enemy now. And so people are asking that question. We no longer have it simply as a threat to Iraq or threat to Syria. We have identified it as a separate enemy, and so people are making that calculation.

I think our credibility in the region and in the world is probably less than it was in 2001. And that's not unexpected, and it's no one person's fault. So if we start to point fingers, I think that's way oversimplifying.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE: Turning back to the fight against ISIS, are they really the only threat to our nation in the Mid East or could we find ourselves beating them, only to face someone more deadly in the future?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAYE: ISIS is one enemy, but there are several militant groups making power grabs in crucial parts of the Middle East. They are making threats against the U.S. Radical Islamists are taking territory and hostages, threatening and killing locals and upsetting the very fragile balance of power.

While on his trip to Egypt, Secretary Kerry emphasized how terror threats, not just ISIS, bleed across borders in the region.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KERRY: The fact is, in today's globalized world, it's only a matter of time before the threat of terrorism anywhere becomes a threat of terrorism everywhere. That has certainly been proven true in the case of ISIL.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KAYE: Let me bring in CNN national security analyst and former CIA operative, Bob Baer. Nice to see you. So is it realistic really to expect a coalition against ISIS can be formed from countries in the region?

ROBERT BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: No, I don't think so. I think we're facing something different here. We're facing failed states, a failed state. And Syria, a failed state in Iraq. Lebanon is on the brink. Jordan is on the brink. Libya certainly has failed. Nigeria. And I could keep on going on and on and on.

So a coalition against chaos like this, it just doesn't make much sense to me, you know. There are conditions on the ground that are causing this. And you know, ISIS is one name. We call it ISIL, the Islamic state, the Muslim brotherhood, on and on. The names will change, leadership changes. But as long as we have these chaotic parts ready world, some radical group turning to militant Islam will arise. It's just inevitable and the violence will spread to the west, to the United States, and Europe at some point. It's just going to happen. What is the coalition going to do?

KAYE: Do you think, though, that we -- did the U.S. underestimate is, and the formation of ISIS and the -- how rapid it made its way through the region and how much territory it grabbed?

BAER: Randi, absolutely. And people in Iraq told me they're going to close the doors on Baghdad and I wasn't sure what that meant. You know, they were complaining about the government there. But they certainly never conveyed to me they were going to make an alliance with this radical Islamic group or that Saddam's former officers would join, who are fairly secular and lead the military wing of ISIS. It's a coalition I've never seen in the Middle East.

So it completely morphs every day. And yes, Washington missed it and so did the media. So did almost everybody in the world. But, you know, that's why I can't predict where it's going to go from here. Is it going to go into Saudi Arabia, as we were talking about before, Randi. They ultimately want Medina and Mecca. Are they capable of causing problems in Saudi Arabia? Probably.

KAYE: And what about other groups? I mean, we talk so much about ISIS. But there are other groups as far as I understand it, that we should worry about.

BAER: Well, look at al-Nusra, it is a wing of al-Qaeda, you know. We don't hear about them anymore. But they just took a bunch of U.N. soldiers. There are groups in Jordan and even Hamas I wonder about. It's supposed to be confined to Palestine, but is it becoming more radical? And that's a very good question. It could be. And then, again, let's go back to Jordan. You've got populations as majority Palestinian. Is it on the brink of some sort of chaos? I don't know but I hear Jordanians are very worried and moving their money out.

KAYE: All right, Bob Baer, appreciate your insight. We'll continue to talk with you. We're going to take a quick break. We'll be back right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAYE: Welcome back. Continuing our conversation now with CNN national security analyst and former CIA operative, Bob Baer, joining me.

Bob, we were talking about ISIS and coalition and other threats from other groups around the world. In going after ISIS and announcing these air strikes, do we risk creating more enemies?

BAER: I think absolutely. I think we're going to end up -- we have to inevitably cause a lot of human casualties, and these people tend to take revenge. They will not look at this as the way we do. And they'll hit back where they can. And the question is, what's their ability to hit back in Europe or the United States? I asked a couple intelligence people last couple days, and these people were level- headed, looked at the tactical intelligence and they just said it's inevitable.

KAYE: I want to bring in lieutenant colonel Rick Francona who is also here with me on-set. What do you think? I mean, announcing these air strikes and going after ISIS, will this just inflame tensions?

LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Sure. And we run the risk of alienating many more of the Sunnis. Because this will be looked at in Iraq, especially, as us siding with the Shia government. And the siding of the Shia government is what is driving much of the recruitment that we're seeing in ISIS. As they roll down the Freightees (ph) valley, they picked up recruits. They haven't lost because we thought that they would spread themselves out and dilute their power. And that's not happening.

Many of these Sunnis, many from the army, they're allying with and recruiting themselves into ISIS. So I think that's going to continue. And if we do these air strikes, it's only going to exacerbate that process.

KAYE: And Bob, did you want to add to that, Bob? BAER: No, Rick is absolutely right. I mean, is a Shia-Sunni

conflict. We have to understand the sectarian nature of it. And if we take sides, as Rick said, with the Shia, the Baghdadi government, or Iran, which is even worse, we will get -- there will be blowback. It's just going to happen. And I can't tell you where or how, but it will happen.

KAYE: Bob, what do you make of the fact that, you know, just this week, we're learning from the CIA that the is forces may be triple the number, maybe as many as 30,000, than we were aware of before. Did we miss something there, or how did that happen?

BAER: I think we missed -- it's almost impossible to collect intelligence in western Syria, for instance, or around Aleppo. There is -- we don't have case officers on the ground. They are using encrypted communications, mobile Wi-Fi. Very difficult to get ahead of these people. They're technologically capable. And I think what we're seeing with the bigger numbers is this is a group that's winning.

You know, a few setbacks in Iraq, but overall, it's winning. They have established a state. And that region, especially for the tribal groups, you want to go with the winning side. And it looks like they're going to establish something. Even secular Sunnis I talk to say Syria is never coming back together. They're going to let the minority allowites (ph) move to the mountains. They want Damascus back. They don't see they're in any way going to lose this war. And the whole Middle East is going to change. They may be absolutely wrong. But the point is, that's the way they look at it.

KAYE: And lieutenant colonel, I men, does this change the strategy in terms of the numbers of ISIS forces, if it is triple what we thought we knew?

LT. COL. RICK FRANCONA, CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, as Bob said, you know, it's very difficult to collect intelligence out there. When you don't have a presence on the ground, you get bad intelligence. We have seen this in the past and we're going to see it in the future.

So I think if you try and count these people, it's very, very difficult. The numbers themselves aren't really that important. It's what are the capabilities. What can they do with these numbers. The problem is, we're seeing a very technologically advanced people who have acquired advanced weaponry. And surprisingly, they know how to use a lot of this stuff. Because many of -- especially in Iraq, many of these people had served in the Iraqi army. They have the capability to use this. And they have moved this stuff surprisingly fast from Iraq into Syria. Because they don't recognize the border. This is one big area for them.

And as Bob said, they're going -- the Middle East will change. The (INAUDIBLE) agreement, the arrangement, all these lines on maps, they don't recognize them. They want them to go away. So Syria, Iraq, will not be the same if they have their way.

KAYE: So but speaking of them having their way, Bob, I mean, the president came out and said we are going to degrade and destroy ISIS. Is destroy -- is destruction possible?

BAER: No. Because you would have to -- and you have to, you know, defeat the Sunnis, truly defeat them. And there's too many of them. And they have too much support in the gulf and Saudi Arabia and the emirates and the rest of it.

Look, what the president is doing is fighting for the congressional elections on national security issues for 2016. Nobody going into 2016 wants to admit they lost Iraq. You know, if it breaks up, there is a partisan of some sort. It's unacceptable to the political class in Washington. So if you don't hear them talking about the facts, that's the reason, is politics.

FRANCONA: And the goal of the government of the U.S. administration now is to create this inclusive government in Baghdad. And personally, I think it's very difficult to do, because the administration wants to set up an inclusive government, and that would be the precursor to the defeat of ISIS. And I think that we may have it backwards. I think that we have got to militarily break ISIS before you can break the Sunnis away from their alliance to ISIS.

So this is going to be a very, very difficult thing in the next few months. And the -- however the government of Baghdad stands itself up, if they're able to include the Sunnis or at least attract the Sunnis will be key. Personally, I think that it's going to be very, very difficult, because there is such anti-Shia feeling in that whole area of western Iraq. So I don't see this happening any time soon. So I think the military operation is going to be key in the near term, but the political solution, of course, is where we need to be.

KAYE: Colonel Francona, Bob Baer, stay with us. We want to continue this very interesting discussion right after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

KAYE: I want to welcome our viewers around the world. Breaking news just in to CNN. An ISIS video released today appears to show the terrorist group has executed another hostage, British aid-worker David Haynes. The video entitled a message to the allies of America was posted to twitter today and looks similar to previous videos we saw, showing the beheadings of American journalist James Foley and Steven Sotloff.

The executioner who sounds like the same man who appeared in these previous videos threatened British prime minister David Cameron saying their alliance with the U.S. will only, quote, accelerate your destruction and will drag the British people into another bloody and unwinnable war.

We have our panel here with us. So first to you, Nic Robertson, on this. Tell me what you're hearing.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, the British foreign office say that they working urgently to verify this video, when I talked to them a few minutes ago, they were still in that process. I asked them if they been able to reach out to Mr. Haynes' family. They were not aware at that time. So this is very much the early stages.

ISIS alleging this is David Haynes, the video that you say appears like the other two execution videos of journalist, David Haynes, an aide worker. And that executioner who stands next to him. When he speaks, again, it sounds and he looks very much like the same executioner that we have seen in the two previous killings.

He speaks with a British accent. And while he speaks, he makes a specific reference to U.S. air strikes against the Hadifa dam, this is a key strategic dam in the west of Iraq. He makes reference to that.

Now, those strikes happened only in the past few days. So that does seem to date this video to within the past couple of days. This is that specific part of what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Your evil allies with America, which continues to strike the Muslims of Iraq and most recently bombed the Hadifa dam will only accelerate your destruction and play in the role of the obedient lack of Cameron. We only drag your people into another bloody and unwinnable war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTSON: So that accent there unmistakably British, sounds like the executioner in the previous -- of the previous two killings. And at the moment, the foreign office here still trying to verify this for themselves, Randi.

KAYE: Just so tragic. Again, to see this happening. Let me bring in lieutenant colonel rick Francona. Also here with us, CNN military analyst. Colonel, your thoughts first.

FRANCONA: Well, I think that they may have been miscalculation here. The British who appeared to not sure where they are going to participate in the full range air strikes. I think this will galvanized British populations. This is pushing the British over the fence. And I cannot believe that ISIS didn't factor that in.

Do they want to drag the British into a war? The British are a formidable militant force. They bring a lot to the alliance and I think now that they've -- I think ISIS has just guaranteed British cooperation with the Americans on all phases of what we're going to be doing.

KAYE: Bob Baer, our CNN national security analyst, also joining us.

Bob, what are your initial thoughts here?

BOB BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, first of all, Haines had no suspicious contact. You know, he wasn't an American. He had no former military. He was just a simple aide worker, taxi driver, shows up.

Of course, he was completely innocent. This will inflame the British.

But we have to look at these people as paranoid and irrational. And they want to go to war with the West. That defines them, gives them legitimacy. They hope it's going to draw in new recruits. And, you know, I think this thing is just getting under way.

KAYE: Here's what we know just a little bit about David Haines. He's 44. He was a logistics and security manager for the Paris-based Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development, which is a nongovernmental humanitarian agency. He was abducted in March of last year near a refugee camp in Syria, while working to arrange for the delivery of humanitarian aid, according to people staying there at the camp.

Nic, let me ask you. They name David Cameron, speaking directly to the British prime minister in that video. What do you expect the reaction will be from the British government?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Robust and strong. I think our panel here has accurately depicted the reaction in Britain. There will be absolute anger.

And this will give a groundswell of emotional feeling that David Cameron may well be able to use to get the political support that he needs to join the coalition. He certainly wants to. He has given all indications he wants to do that. But, also, the British public as well is going to recognize what happened in Iraq, what happened in Afghanistan when British troops went to war in these countries. They feel this really galvanized the negative reaction against Britain.

So, you're going to hear voices of caution as well. And let's not forget, before the war in Iraq, there was a massive out-flowing of opposition to that huge protest on the streets here.

So, again, there is a segment of the population here that will not want to see that happen. So on the one hand, it gives something to David Cameron, but it's also perhaps -- we're going to see a negative reaction for engagement in Syria, at least on the scale of Iraq and Afghanistan, which is not in the cards, as we know. But there will be potentially anger, if Britain moves in that direction.

But it does appear very much at the moment as if Britain is now being drawn much closer to playing an active role.

KAYE: Colonel Francona, you're shaking your head.

FRANCONA: Yes, I agree. I don't see how the British population and the British government can ignore this. This will push them in a direction that maybe ISIS wants them to be. Maybe ISIS wants to drag the British into another war. Or if that's what they want, I think they've got it.

KAYE: Does this change the strategy at all, do you think, for the United States now? FRANCONA: No, I don't think so. I think that this merely strengthens

the U.S. hand, because we have always relied on the British. They have always been one of the best -- the best partner we have in any of these alliances. And I think that we will go forward together and it's -- and I think this is now a Western fight. It's not just a U.S. fight.

KAYE: What about the Arab states, Bob. I mean, certainly, Secretary of State John Kerry has been trying to get this coalition together, trying to gain support from the Arab states. Turkey has been sort of on the fence about it. They have their own nationals that they are worried about who were taken from Mosul about 50 civilians there. So, how do you expect the region will react?

BAER: Well, I think it is just daunting on turkey and these other countries and Qatar in particular what a danger they have sort of started. I mean, you can still get across the Turkish border with a $25 bribe. They're going to have to retake control of their border. They can.

Syria has turned very badly. It started off as a democratic-almost movement against Bashar al Assad, had a lot of legitimacy. But you see the longer it's gone on, the more people have joined ISIS, and Turkey has got to take stock of this.

And this is a cancer that has to be stopped, and it's ultimately going to be the Muslim countries who are best able to stop it. They can get American and British help, but it's -- they have to understand what they have -- what they have started here and got to take care of it.

KAYE: I want to remind our viewers, if you're just tuning in from around the world, we are reporting that British aide worker David Haines has been executed. We have a video that appears to show the terrorist group ISIS has executed another hostage. The video is entitled "A message to the allies of America" -- discussing that here with our panel.

What do you think the real message is here, Colonel Francona, from ISIS to the world?

FRANCONA: Well, they are warning the allies -- anybody that signs up to participate in the alliance with the United States that your nationals are at risk, as well. I think they picked the wrong people to do this to. The British have a lot of resolve.

And I think that -- as Nic has said, there is going to be both sides of this. But I think in the end, the British government will stand up and join the alliance with the Americans. I hope that there will be a demand for some sort of retribution for this heinous act.

KAYE: There has been a lot of talk about whether or not releasing these videos. I've done some reporting on this, actually, for CNN, on whether or not the release of these videos helps the recruiting for ISIS, or hurts them, because they're actually considered to be too violent.

Nic Robertson, to you on that. I mean, is this a turnoff if you will, to some Muslims, and to others around the world?

ROBERTSON: Sure. And it angers moderate Muslims, absolutely. And you'll certainly hear that from them in Britain. But there is a cadre of radicals among them, wannabe radicals, that are really swarming to this.

I have been talking to people who work in Britain in de-radicalizing. Some of them have been former convicted of terrorist offenses themselves. They now work to undermine the terrorists. They try to de-radicalize young men.

What they're saying right now that is happening in Britain is that there is a groundswell, particularly in the past couple of weeks since these brutal killings of James Foley and David Sotloff and now David Haines -- brutal videos have in fact spurred people on.

And it pains me in many ways to say this. But there will be back rooms in Britain tonight where there are radical jihadist-leaning young men who will take delight in this and try to get themselves to Syria to join the fight. That is a very sad thing to say, but it is also the reality of what we're hearing here from people who are working in these communities.

KAYE: Bob Baer, can you pick up on that?

BAER: It scares me. I've spent a lot of time in those British communities talking to would-be suicide bombers, blew up the metro there. Yes, and they -- it's easy to radicalize them. They're isolated.

Britain has got a strong class system. They sort of listen to each other, and a lot of these kids, you know, they see it as a way out to make something important of their lives.

And, of course, you have the Internet, which is something new. And it's easy way to recruit. It's like Craigslist. You just sign up, you get to Turkey, cross the border.

And ISIS doesn't really care whether they're vetted or not, because they accepted them to the front on Aleppo. And if they get through six months of combat, they might start to trust them.

So, it's very difficult for us to stop this. And, you know, even in the United States, I've talked with some police officials. They have had parents have stopped their kids from going to Syria to joining this movement. And they're just completely unaware of the politics and the reality of it.

KAYE: Yes. Let me bring in Elise Labott, our global affairs correspondent. She joins us on the phone. She is in Cairo. She's been traveling with the secretary of state, John Kerry, as he tries to put together and gain support for this coalition against ISIS.

Elise, you've heard the news. Any reaction there?

ELISE LABOTT, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Well, I think, Randi, the U.S. and state department, White House, National Security Council, all referring us to the British government. I think they really want to let the British take the lead and once the British have come out and acknowledged the video and that they do believe this is David Haines, then there will be the condemnation videos that we saw from the British and so many other countries when we, the Americans, had James Foley and Steven Sotloff killed.

I think I have to agree with the rest of your panel that unfortunately, this is what it's going to take to rally so many of these countries, that no country is immune. That if you think that just because you don't have any citizens in Syria or something like that, nobody is immune right now.

And what the U.S. has been trying to tell countries is -- as Secretary Kerry travels through the region, is that ISIS is not just a threat to the countries bordering Iraq or Syria, but I'm in Egypt, for instance. And a lot of these terrorists, these recruits that are traveling through Egypt to Iraq and Syria are coming and are training some of the terrorists, for instance the extremists and giving them the coaching and benefit of what they have learned.

And so, those people in the Sinai are able to use those tactics on the Egyptian government. And this is -- it's not necessarily scare tactics, but this is the kind of message that Secretary Kerry has been for delivering throughout these countries, that no country is immune. This is really a global problem, Randi.

KAYE: Certainly. I want to get back to this video, because in that video, Nic Robertson, I want to ask you about this. In the video showing -- apparently showing the execution of this British captive, David Haines, they are also threatening to, as they do in each video that we have seen, they are threatening to execute another British citizen, Alan Henning.

Do you know anything about this hostage, Nic?

ROBERTSON: We only have a few details at this time. He also is believed to be an aide worker, also believed to be from northern England, from the Manchester area. But at the moment, those details -- we have very, very few details on him precisely, how long he has been held. We still don't have those details.

It has to be said at this stage, a message for David Cameron, very, very clearly -- the beginning of this video that ends again with the threat to Alan Henning and his life and another message for David Cameron. The first portion of this video started off as the others have been slickly produced, with a statement by David Cameron, stating and outlining his support for the coalition to defeat ISIS supporting the Peshmerga in the north of Iraq.

Again, this is stereotypical for what we have seen. And unfortunately, this -- it has to be said, unfortunately, that the outlook at this moment -- for Mr. Henning is not a strong one. We know just yesterday Alan Haines' family a message was released by the foreign office here. His family authorized them to release a statement saying that they had reached out to his kidnappers, hadn't heard anything, wanted to make sure they got the message. This is what we have been seeing playing out.

KAYE: Yes. They were saying we were asking those holding David to make contact with us. And they never heard anything back.

So, let me ask you, Bob Baer. Does that video and how slickly it's produced, does that say anything to you?

BAER: These people are technologically adept, across the board, making videos, encrypted communications, mobile Wi-Fi. There's clearly -- people -- they're good. They are very good.

And also -- I also keep coming back to this. The more they fight and the more they get used to violence, the more -- the better they'll get and more likely they're going to export it. And all these conflicts, what we can say about them, what we can predict, is the longer they go on, the more violence there's going to be.

We also can't forget that they also have an American woman, but so far, I don't know of ISIS executing any women, foreign women.

KAYE: Colonel, let me ask you. We're talking about the time and how time -- Nic was saying time could be running out now for Alan Henning who they were threatening. After James Foley, I believe it was two weeks to the day that they shared the execution tape of Steven Sotloff, and now, I think it's been about 11 days or so since then. So, a little bit less time.

What would be the strategy now to try and save Alan Henning? What should be going on behind the scenes besides his family?

FRANCONA: Unfortunately, and I think Bob and Nic both alluded to this, it doesn't look good. They have shown no interest in any kind of negotiation with the British or the Americans, because they regard these two powers as their key enemies right now. And they're doing everything they can to draw us into this fight.

It almost looks like the battle lines are being drawn. They want to have this fight. And they believe they can win.

They know and they're very astute, not only technologically, but politically. They understand the divisions going on both in the United States and the United Kingdom right now. They know the argument -- do we engage, fight, attack them. And they believe that they have the upper hand here. And it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days, particularly in Britain. As Mr. Henning is being threatened, what happens, where does British public opinion go?

KAYE: Nic, I want to ask you about that video. You have actually seen it, and the full video. And you mentioned that in the video they talk about the Haditha Dam in Mosul. Why is that significant?

ROBINSON: It's significant because it gives a time reference for when this killing may have happened. When James Foley was killed, there was speculation that Steven Sotloff might have been killed very soon after that, because he was in that same video. But what we're seeing now, it appears, again, the sophistication of

this group ISIS to clearly make a time reference to an event to show that all of these executions are not happening at the same time, that they're not just throwing these out a few weeks later. They -- this is a careful strategy to show that time is passing. I think it does exactly that. It ratchets up the anger, condemnation, strength of feeling against is. Absolutely this is what they intend.

They know what happened during Iraq, during Afghanistan, that they were by our -- British American involvement there, they were able -- al Qaeda was able to galvanize young radicals to their battle call. And this is exactly what ISIS is doing. They are precisely, as we're seeing here, drawing those battle lines.

KAYE: And as you also said, it does appear to be the same executioner. Bob Baer, what in terms of that do we know in terms of the intelligence on this guy? Are we any closer to figuring out who he is?

BAER: I don't know who he is. But I've talked to people who have negotiated with the hostage-takers over the foreigners and he was surprised that they're both of a certain degree of cunning. They understand what they're doing. But that frankly they're psychopaths.

Early on, they wanted money. And they got a lot of money from the French. And the French really sort of spoiled this. The president of France was down in the polls. He needed -- he needed -- he need some political, you know, good news, got him out.

And -- but since ISIS took the fields in eastern Syria and Iraq, they're not interested in money. And they will kill cold bloodedly without any remorse.

KAYE: Colonel, what do you see is the difference? We didn't see this sort of thing from al Qaeda. Does ISIS feel different to you than al Qaeda?

FRANCONA: They seem more blood-thirsty. I don't know what it is exactly. But they seem to want to not only expand their presence and take over their land and set up this state, but it seems like they want to inflict a lot of pain on the West, as well. It's like a retribution for what has happened to them over the last 50, 60, almost 100 years since the break of the Ottoman Empire when all these countries are formed. And this is one of the things they really rail against, is this creation of the modern Middle East.

All of these lines drawn on these maps were not drawn by them. And they want to erase all of these lines. And they want to punish the people that did that. And that's primarily the British and the French, and by association, the United States.

KAYE: I mean, Nic, something like this, obviously, there is a lot of anger and a lot of hatred. Where does it come from?

ROBERTSON: Well, al Qaeda here really set the agenda. And the Islamic state, is, has learned from al Qaeda. It has taken what al Qaeda did well, amplified it, and used it to their advantage. And they're continuing to try to out al Qaeda, if you will, by creating this Islamic state that doesn't have borders, a caliphate they have now created in Baghdad, the caliph of that caliphate. So, they've have taken the al Qaeda idea and moved it ahead.

Al Qaeda was not able to strike in western capitals with the ease with which it apparently struck in London and Madrid and the United States. So, what have they done now? They're drawing us into fights in lands that they control, the lands that are most important to them. So I think ISIS is trying to sort of go beyond what the al-Qaeda achieved.

KAYE: And Bob, I mean, we are talking about -- the U.S. is talking about air strikes to try to put an end to ISIS and destroy and degrade them. But on an intelligence level, how weak or how strong are we in terms of figuring out where they are, who they are, and how to stop them. And how important is that piece to the puzzle in addition to the military?

BAER: Well, the question is, for instance, how do you decapitate is, how do you get to Baghdadi? He's apparently in Raqqa. I would doubt he's going up on cell phones, very difficult to find him. You could carpet bomb that city, but you would kill a lot of Sunni.

But I think that they would sort of welcome that. The more casualties we can inflict on Sunni Muslims, the more recruits they'll get.

Nic is absolutely right. And I think this is what's fascinating about this group. Rather than random strikes against the West, the World Trade Center, or the London tube, they have concentrated on the Shia, which is a much more, you know, potent issue for Sunni Muslims. It's a wounded civilization.

They say, finally after all these years, we're striking back against the corrupt Saudi monarchy, against, you know, the America -- its American protectors. And yes, try come killing us, but we own the land and we're going to hit back at you. And if the CIA is right about going from 10,000 to 15,000 to 30,000 to 35,000, you know, core members, that's significant number of increased support.

KAYE: Colonel, you want to weigh in?

FRANCONA: And in following up on that, they want to have the battle on their -- on their land. They want us to go there and fight, because they believe that the air power will be effective. But they think that once we're on the ground, that evens out the playing field. And if we're fighting on their turf, they have the advantage. And to some extent, they do.

So, they're drawing us into this, and, of course, we're not going to shy away from this. I don't see any backing down on the U.S. part now or on the British part. So, as Nic and I have said, the battle lines are being drawn. And we're going to have this fight.

Now, is that fight going to be in Iraq, Syria, a combination of the both? Whose boots are on the ground? And this is going -- this is snowballing. This is getting worse.

It's not getting better. And I'm a little concerned that where we are going with this. And where are the Arab allies and how successful is Mr. Kerry being in these countries?

I see a lot of talk about support. But I don't hear anybody ponying up any troops.

KAYE: Let me bring in who is joining us live from Baghdad, Jomana Karadsheh, CNN correspondent.

What is the word there? What is the reaction there, Jomana?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There's been no reaction yet. It's really late in the night here, Randi.

But we have heard Iraqi officials in the past reacting to these execution videos, condemnation here. Iraqis would tell you that this is something they have been seeing and they have been suffering for a long time and now, the world is seeing the brutality of this organization that Iraqi officials here have been warning about and have been calling for more support in this fight.

They believe they're the ones fighting this battle on behalf of the world. And now, there's this sense that the world is waking up to this and action needs to be taken. Here in Iraq, they're starting to see signs of that and also in Syria.

KAYE: And in terms of the progress of ISIS there in Iraq, is the sense that they can be stopped, that they can be defeated?

KARADSHEH: The sense is, it's going to take a very long time, Randi. It's going to take much more than the U.S. military airstrikes.

There is optimism here that there is some movement going on, on the military side and also on the political level here in Iraq. You know, the political situation here very key also to try and win back the Sunni population. That is where ISIS has really gained ground in those Sunni-Arab communities.

In terms of the change in the situation, U.S. airstrikes have been going on for more than a month now. ISIS still in control of large parts of this country, and also, of course, Syria. Those two battle fields that merge for the organization seen as one. Here in Iraq, what these air strikes have done have really stopped that momentum that we saw back in June as ISIS swept across the country.

But what is going on right now, it still controls some of Iraq's major cities like Mosul, the second-largest city. Large parts of Anbar province, that city of Fallujah they took over in July, and much of the country. The feeling is more needs to be done. They want to see international action and they want to see it fast, Randi.

KAYE: Nic Robertson, back to you on the importance of human intelligence on the ground there. How critical is it? ROBERTSON: I think it's going to become more and more important. And

the attraction of young men from Britain, from other European countries, from the United States poses an opportunity to penetrate that organization, ISIS. They will have to, you know, serve their time on the front lines but ultimately some will become trusted.

You know, we have drones in the sky. We have electronic eavesdropping. We're able to pick up phone calls. We're able to locate people.

But the information for decapitation attacks like targeting Baghdadi, taking off the head of the organization, those sorts of things, as it was with al Awlaki, the American educated cleric planning on helping assist in terror attacks around the world, taking him out was done through the use of human intelligence.

There have been plenty of other examples of that. So, trying to take some of those young recruits before they go or when they come back to their countries, turning them, sending them back, you've always got the worry, do they work for you, do they really not work for you. But that is going to be part of the key, to cracking that organization. And it's going to be very, very tough for Western intelligence agencies.

These young men will not -- will not want to trust them. However, there will be the abilities and I would love to hear Bob's views on this, as well. There will be the ability to turn some of these men. There will be things that they have done that they don't want made public or whatever -- how to recruit these young men as agents and information to take shots and take down some of the key players.

KAYE: Bob, quick word from you on that.

BAER: We're going to have to wait on good luck. One of these kids is going to go in and see the horror of this organization. Figure out what's going on. Come out and volunteer.

It's -- the problem is putting officers on the ground. They simply cannot cross into Syria or into hostile parts of Iraq and recruit people.

And I keep on hearing over and over again from people in the intelligence community how adept they are at defeating the National Security Agency and intercept. They have clearly read Snowden's leaks. They know how the system works. They know about algorithms, they know about social media and I think that a lot of them will be able to beat it. And these are the ones who are going to be so difficult to run to ground.

KAYE: Yes. Do you want to have one quick final word here?

FRANCONA: Yes. And I pick up on both what have they said, you know, having run human operations in this part of the world is very, very difficult, because the hoops that you have to go through to prove your bona fides to a new organization are dire, and inhumane. And what these young men will have to do to win the trust of their captors will probably put it over the edge. It is going to be very, very tough to do.

KAYE: Once again, breaking news that British aide worker David Haines, it appears, has been executed by the group is. We'll take a quick break and see you on the other side.

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