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Republicans Poised to Take Back Senate; Football Player: College Called Spinal Injury "Nothing";

Aired October 31, 2014 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

Get ready for a nail-biter, and I'm not talking about college football. I'm talking about the midterm elections. Republicans are poised to take back the Senate. If they succeed, the GOP will control both Houses of Congress. CNN's Tom Foreman has more for you.

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TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There are three key things we're watching in this midterm and the first is right here in the U.S. Senate. The Democrats have been in charge. We're showing them here in blue along with the two Independents who caucus with them in purple. The Republicans are expected to gain some seats here. The Democrats are expected to lose some. But control of this chamber is going to come down to nine or ten very close races and the Democrats have to win six or more of them if they want to remain in power here.

On the other side of the rotunda, the second thing we're looking at, which is the U.S. House of Representatives. The Republicans have had the majority here -- that is not expected to change. The question is, will they lose some seats or, more likely, will they pick up some? And if so, how?

If they do it with Tea Party help that could set up divisions within the Republican Party that the Democrats might be able to exploit even from their minority position, which brings us to the third thing we're looking at, which is the White House reaction to all of this.

If the President comes out swinging over a big loss and he completely alienates the Republicans, they have a perfect excuse then to say we're going to make you the lamest of lame duck presidents with control of both chambers. If, however, he's too conciliatory toward the Republicans, he could dispirit his own party and that could make it very tough for any other Democrat who wants to win the White House in 2016.

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COSTELLO: Tom Foreman reporting. So if Republicans gain control of both Houses of Congress, will gridlock end? Will bills fly out of the halls of Congress to the President's desk? Will trust in government be restored?

Let's talk with Michael Bitzer, he's provost and professor of political science at Catawba College; we're also joined by CNN senior political analyst and editorial director of the "National Journal" Ron Brownstein; as well as Larry Sabato, he's the director for the center of politics at the University of Virginia. Welcome -- gentlemen.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

MICHAEL BITZER, CATAWBA COLLEGE: Good to be here.

LARRY SABATO, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Thank you, Carol.

COSTELLO: Good morning. Thank you for being here.

It is safe to say, control of the Senate comes with a mean price tag, and I'm not talking about the $100 million price tag. A little girl in North Carolina perhaps said it best.

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CARSON PARK, WROTE LETTER TO NORTH CAROLINA SENATE CONTENDERS: I thought about that I couldn't really vote because they were saying bad things about -- about each other so I can't really vote.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: She wants them to say nice things about each other -- that little girl was so wonderfully pure. She wrote a letter to the North Carolina Senate candidates asking why they're so mean to each other. But we all know why they're so mean to each other -- because it works. But let's talk more about reality.

Michael, I know you've been following early voting in North Carolina where Senate candidates Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan are running neck in neck. Any surprises?

BITZER: Well, what's really surprising is that it seems like it is not a traditional midterm electorate here in North Carolina. We're probably going see well over a million votes come in. We're already over 900,000. We have today and Saturday to finish up our early voting and Democrats are doing actually quite well.

The black registered voters are casting ballots, they are at 25 percent. In traditional midterms they're usually about 20 percent of the electorate. In a presidential year they're about 30 percent of the early votes so they are right in the middle.

What's really surprising is that unaffiliated voters are actually up substantially over where they were four years ago. So I think we are heading into a much higher turnout than we traditionally see -- about 45 percent in 2010. We may get closer to possibly 50 percent voter turnout. I think at that point all bets are off because it is very much a different type of midterm electorate here in the Tar Heel State.

COSTELLO: And we thought no one cared about the midterm elections.

Larry, you followed the vote, too, what are you seeing?

SABATO: Well, there is interest in places like North Carolina because there's a very close Senate race there. Hagan, I think, is a bit ahead but if there's a last-minute surge for the GOP, then Republicans could take it.

On the whole, look, Carol, I would put it this way -- Republicans have a two out of three chance to take the Senate because they have many more pathways to 51 than the Democrats do. It's a mirror image of what happened in 2012 when we said at that time that President Obama had a much better chance than Romney to win because he had many more pathways to 270 electoral votes.

However, let's also add there's a one in three chance that Democrats could get that Biden majority. Vice President Biden breaking the tie, 50-50 between the two parties and, you know, if you're a meteorologist there at CNN says to you there's a 35 percent chance of -- a 65 percent chance of rain and you walk outside and there's no rain, well, there was a 35 percent chance. It's a reasonable projection.

COSTELLO: Wow. Ok, so, still, Republicans are pretty sure they're going to take the Senate. So if the GOP does take control of both houses, Ron, will it be better for the country?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think you're going to see a sharper distinction and more likely more confrontation. You know, if you look at the agenda that the Republicans were likely to go to Washington are running on, they are running on ideas like repealing the Affordable Care Act, blocking the Obama administration proposal to regulate carbon emissions from power plants, opposing a pathway to citizenship for people who are here undocumented.

And on all of those fronts the likelihood is that the President will move forward very aggressively with executive action and we will see more confrontation than not. There may be some areas where Republicans and the White House can work together. Trade would seem to be perhaps the most obvious one.

But by and large I think you're going to see a pretty sharp move to the right among those who are coming in. And I think that is going to have an offsetting effect from the President and the likelihood is more rather than less conflict over the last two years.

COSTELLO: Wow. Ok. So Michael, there are other theories out there. We know this is the least productive congress in history. Some say if Republicans do take control of the legislature they'll be forced to show they can pass laws because, after all, they want to be successful in 2016. How much credence do you give to that?

BITZER: I actually give it a lot. I mean we will start the 2016 election cycle late Tuesday night perhaps early Wednesday morning because one always bleeds into the other. But certainly for perspective Republican presidential nominee candidates, they have to be able to show something that Republicans can govern. And for Democrats, it could be the opportunity to show the country, look, if a Republican president comes in and you have a Republican congress, this is what you're going to get.

So it's going to be an interesting dynamic as others have said within the Republican conference. How far to the right can they go? Much like what happened here in North Carolina with the general assembly and the governor taking over all Republicans, they pushed probably too far to the right and pretty much energized Democrats to this year's election.

COSTELLO: So, Larry, if there is an all-Republican legislature in our future, how will Hillary Clinton adjust?

SABATO: Well, obviously Hillary Clinton and all the key Democrats are out campaigning and hoping that Democrats hold the Senate and don't do badly in the house. They are ready, though, for bad news.

But for Hillary Clinton there's a flip side that's good news. Assuming she's the nominee, she simply points to the Republican congress and whatever they have said and done as a legislature and says "You need me in the White House in order to block them. I'm the only thing standing between you and" -- fill in the blank, whatever legislation they've tried to pass. So politics is a strange business, you can win by losing and lose by winning.

COSTELLO: Oh, my gosh, it is a strange business.

Ron, I'm going to ask you the hardest question of all. I want your prediction. Will the Republicans take control of the Senate?

BROWNSTEIN: I'm with Larry. Pretty much everything has to go right for the Democrats to avoid losing control. I mean, they have a bad map. They're defending seven seats in states that voted for Romney last time. The President's approval rating is down. And if you look at history, this is the sixth year of a two-term presidential administration. Going back to the turn of the 20th century, only in 1906 and 1998 did the President's party avoid a bad outcome in those sixth-year elections.

But Carol, the larger point, if the Democrats lose control of the Senate, we will have gone all the way since 1980 without either party holding the Senate for more than eight consecutive years. That's almost unprecedented in American history. The larger trend is volatility. Neither side can establish a lasting advantage with the American electorate to cement control of the Senate, much less have unified control of the White House, the House, and the Senate. It's a very different era and all of -- whoever wins the Senate, my advice would be three simple words -- don't unpack everything.

COSTELLO: Ron Brownstein, Larry Sabato, Michael Bitzer, thanks to all of you. I appreciate it.

It's a treat this Halloween for Wall Street, not a trick for investors, at least we hope so. Take a look at the Dow. It's up nearly 150 points -- wow. We're going to keep an eye on this for you and we're going to check in with Christine Romans, too, to find out why when we come back.

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COSTELLO: Toughen up, get back in there -- words often heard on the sidelines of a football field. Words told to a University of South Carolina player who said he could not feel his legs and who would ultimately be diagnosed with a spinal injury. A finding his university dismissed. CNN's Sara Ganim has more.

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SARA GANIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Both times were you pretty scared?

STANLEY DOUGHTY, FORMER COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER: Basically, you know, I was real scared. How would you feel if you was lying somewhere and couldn't move.

GANIM (voice over): Stanley Doughty (ph) remembers twice getting hit very hard while playing for the University of South Carolina.

DOUGHTY: I could hear voices but I couldn't actually move.

GANIM: When it happened the first time, it was 2004. Doughty says the university took him to a specialist in Charlotte who told him not to worry about his injury. A year later came another violent hit during a game. He was taken to the locker room and told to get back on the field.

DOUGHTY: You've got to be tough, you're a football player.

GANIM (on camera): You couldn't feel your legs?

DOUGHTY: Correct.

GANIM: And all they did was take you into the locker room and tell you, you had to be tough?

DOUGHTY: Correct.

GANIM: They didn't say you need to see a doctor even though this had happened before. You said "my neck is hurting." and they just said "go out there and play."

DOUGHTY: Right. "We need you, Stanley, the team needs you. Be supportive."

GANIM (voice over): The team's injury report for Doughty shows he did have a nerve injury at the cervical spine. The school's response was that Doughty had suffered what in football is called "a stinger" or "temporary numbness" and it's common practice to send a player back into the game after symptoms subside. The team cleared Doughty, he continued playing the rest of the season.

Growing up poor in tiny town in Emmitt (ph), Louisiana Doughty lived and breathed football. He was a local star. DOUGHTY: Two all-star game, MVP all-star and I made player of the

year in Louisiana. I had about 35 offers.

GANIM: In his third year at South Carolina, even before finishing his degree, he was signed by the Kansas City Chiefs, a life long dream to go pro finally realized. But after his first medical exam, according to his lawsuit, the Chiefs head trainer said Doughty was too injured to play.

DOUGHTY: Basically they told me I could be paralyzed from the neck down.

GANIM (on camera): So the Chiefs are telling you, the Chiefs doctors are saying this is a really big deal and South Carolina says no, it's not.

DOUGHTY: South Carolina said it don't exist.

GANIM (voice over): South Carolina disputes that Doughty's injuries were serious. They say he didn't seek further medical treatments and that the university provided appropriate and extensive medical care including treatment by team athletic trainers, physicians and out-of- state specialists.

DOUGHTY: When I hold my head back I feel a tingling down my traps, like coming down my shoulders.

GANIM: Doughty says he's unable to work and he's finding it hard to cope. He thought he'd find justice in the class action lawsuit that just reached a preliminary settlement -- $75 million. But the money is going to screening and research. Doughty won't get a dime.

The lawyers will get paid and other players in the class action can file individual lawsuits. But Doughty's case falls outside the statute of limitations. So with no college degree, no financial payment, and needing surgery, Doughty now feels betrayed by so many.

DOUGHTY: I go through pain everyday but I try not to think about it. I just try to keep pushing. That's the life of Stanley Doughty.

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GANIM: So Carol, part of the reason that so many people are upset with this settlement, this proposed settlement with the NCAA is that people like Stanley, players like him, won't get any of that money.

COSTELLO: I don't get that.

GANIM: Right. And as you saw, he is really struggling. He told me he was just happy to make it to his 30th birthday this year. He really wants to go back to school. The University of South Carolina did tell him that he could reapply. And then there's the group in Washington called Positive Strides that is trying to help him raise money to pay for the surgery that he thinks that he needs to fix his injury because, as you see, I mean he's poor. He has no education and he can't do the thing that he thought he would be able to do to make money, which was play football.

COSTELLO: Sara Ganim, thanks so much.

I'll be right back.

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COSTELLO: Weddings are supposed to be memorable but in the age of social media when something goes wrong the nuptial can become downright epic. Our Jeanne Moos counts down the best of the worst in recent matrimonial history.

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JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Here is what happens when a groom really sweeps his bride off her feet and his.

Chuck Kenard (ph) just picked up Julie and continued carrying her to the reception while she managed to keep a grip on her bouquet, touche.

Notice the woman running to the rescue decided not to miss the shot.

(on camera): The bride had a cut on her forearm, she was bleeding, so was the groom. He actually took the brunt of the fall.

(voice-over): His arms cushioned her, the couple can thank the mother of the bride for posting the fall on YouTube for the world to see and joke about. "What a way to cement your relationship."

(on camera): The bride thought the fall was hilarious, telling ABC News, who can really top that kind of wedding entrance?

(voice-over): Well, since you asked, number five: best wedding blooper, the cake feeding that swallowed the bride -- and the cake.

Number four: those beachfront weddings where the marriage starts out by being washed up.

Number three: taking the plunge when the dock gives out under the wedding party. The bride ended up dry with just the bottom of her gown wet. The one person suffered a fractured upper arm bone.

Number two: the bride who got zapped on a zip line by the groom as they made their grand entrance. No newlyweds were harmed in the making of this video.

Our number one wedding blooper: the groom who got drilled with a drone shooting pre-wedding photos.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There is blood on that.

MOOS: Meet the photographer.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The couple, they were super cool about the whole thing. Obviously, I felt horrible.

MOOS: How super cool was the groom, despite having cuts to his head?

When marriage mishaps occur there is one wedding vow you can count on to be kept?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm YouTubing that, Brett (ph).

MOOS: So, this will be your wedding picture until death do you part, these two not only fell for each other, they fell on each other.

Jeanne Moos, CNN, New York.

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COSTELLO: Oh, I needed a laugh today. Thank you, Jeanne Moos.

And thank you for joining me today. I'm Carol Costello.

"@THIS HOUR WITH BERMAN AND MICHAELA" after a break.

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