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Branson Vows to Solve SpaceShipTwo Failure; Senate Control at Stake Tuesday; Hagel's Criticism of Syria Policy; U.S., Israeli Relations Get Ugly; Israeli Defense Minister Denied Meetings in Washington; Will Assassinating ISIS Leader End Terror Group; More Information on Test Pilot Killed in Crash; Lava Flow Moves Closer to Hawaiian Homes

Aired November 01, 2014 - 17:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


DEBORAH FEYERICK, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, everyone. You're in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Deborah Feyerick in New York. A billionaire's space tourism plan now has a deadly test record. Virgin Galactic Founder Richard Branson is vowing to find out why its passenger spacecraft had a catastrophic failure during yesterday's test flight. The spacecraft disintegrated at 45,000 feet over California's Mojave Desert. One pilot was killed. A second pilot parachuted to the ground but was seriously injured.

Our Stephanie Elam joins me now. And, Stephanie, Virgin was supposed to start offering this tourist flights next year. How has this derailed the whole program?

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Deb, it's definitely going to affect whether or not you can get into the sky next year. You're talking about a craft that costs half a billion dollars to create. Let alone the loss of life. And just the setback of this program overall. However, what that means to the program in total? That's in question right now. Sir Richard Branson was here in desert and he did talk about what this could mean. Take a listen to what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICHARD BRANSON, FOUNDER, VIRGIN GALACTIC: Yesterday we fell short. We'll now comprehensively assess the results of the crash and are determined to learn from this and move forward together as a group of friends and the company. As I say that we owe it to our test pilots to find out exactly what went wrong. And once we found out what went wrong and once we found out what went wrong, if we can overcome it, we'll make absolutely certain that the dream lives on.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ELAM: It was clear based on what he said that he would like to see the program continue. He said he also believes the 400 engineers behind Virgin Galactic would like to see the program continue as well. And he says so far there have been none of the paying customers who have asked for refunds. In fact, he said that there was one customer who actually said sign me up yesterday after this accident happened -- Deb. FEYERICK: And, Stephanie, the NTSB investigators arrived on scene

today. I think there are a little more than a dozen of them. Do we know what kind of a timeline is expected in terms of gathering the evidence, removing it from where it is and taking a closer look at it?

ELAM: They stayed away from making any declarations on the timing of this. They said today after just getting here on the ground this morning, the focus would be on divvying up on how they were going to do this procedure. They're saying they have been involved with other spacecraft type of anomalies, of tragedies like "Challenger" or "Columbia" but this is the first spacecraft where they're going to actually take the lead on the investigation. So, they have a few more people here to do that but some of what they do is going to be the same as they would do with an aviation crash where they'll go and interview people and look at the debris field. They also said that because this was a test flight it might actually help them because Virgin Galactic will likely have a lot of data on this flight and that might help them determine what went wrong. But no imminent cause yet anywhere on the horizon at this point -- Deb.

FEYERICK: All right. And we saw the clear pictures that sort of glider separating from the actual device. All right, Stephanie Elam, thank you very much. We appreciate that.

And the question, does commercial space tourism actually have a future? With me to discuss is CNN correspondent Rachel Crane and aviation analyst Miles O'Brien.

Miles, first to you. You look at the private sector wanting to go into space. Is this realistic now given what we've seen? It was not really a good week for any space program.

MILES O'BRIEN, AVIATION ANALYST: To say the least. But we're sort of where airplanes were in the 1920s when we were, you know, using air mail and just beginning with airlines. This is difficult stuff. It's right at the edge of our capabilities. The laws of physics can't be changed. And it's long, hard work. I think the problem has been a problem of expectations. Deb, you'll remember ten years ago when we were talking about the XPrize, the success of SpaceShipOne, the predecessor of SpaceShipTwo and at that time, everything went so well with the scale composites, the Mojave team, everybody thought it would just be a matter of very short time before we'd all be going. Well, it turns out it's a little bit harder than that.

FEYERICK: Yes. Exactly. And sometimes our timeline is a lot different than a scientific timeline. Rachel, you were out at the program and you saw -- you're really saw it. But explain to people because when you think of space travel, they think of going to the moon, they think of going to Mars. But this is more of a glider. What exactly does it entail?

RACHEL CRANE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: So, essentially, these are suborbital flights, so what paying passengers are paying $250,000 for is six minutes of weightlessness. So, WhiteKnightTwo takes off which is the mother ship and releases SpaceShipTwo and at about 45,000 feet in the air, that's when the spaceship free falls and then presumably as opposed to launch itself into space and that's when the passengers, you know, have those six minutes where they will be floating around taking their space selfies, what have you.

FEYERICK: The space selfies, but you also mentioned something very interesting and I may also have you jumping on this as well, but that's the sort of psychology behind it. You say that people have this or astronauts describe almost this life altering kind of feeling. What is it?

CRANE: Right. The overview effect and that's what the CEO of Virgin Galactic George Whitesides really think is the humanitarian benefit of these flights of Virgin Galactic that the people that will go on them will come back with a changed perception of what the world is and how they want to live here by seeing the curvature of the earth from that distance. Presumably it's really supposed to change you that's what astronauts describe.

FEYERICK: And so, Miles, when you think about that and how that sort of feeling, that euphoria of weightlessness of changing your perspective of being up there, do you think the risks are worth it? A lot of astronauts will say, yes, pushing the bounds is what we do. But what is your sort of scientific perspective?

O'BRIEN: Well, I think I would personally take the risk. There's no question I'd love to do it sometime, if I had $250,000, I probably would have been on the list already. But I think the key here is that people enter into this with their eyes wide open. And heretofore this is a private enterprise with proprietary information. The hangar doors have been pretty well shut and we really don't know what the real challenges have been, what the schedule pressure might have been, what the issues are that got us to this point. And that's why having the NTSB there, and this unprecedented investigation for them, they've never investigated a civilian space incident. This is new for them. Mostly we've seen NASA doing its own investigations, an NTSB investigation is going to be good because we'll finally be able to take -- and there's been a lot of pr varnish on this. We'll be able to take that varnish off and really see what we have here. I think what we may find is the pr version of this and the reality, the real rocket science are pretty disparate.

FEYERICK: Right. And Miles they were testing a new fuel. Do you think given that they were supposed to go up next year, doesn't that -- it kind of seems like a little bit of a tight timeline testing a new fuel just to see if it will work and then obviously something like this happens, not that I'm saying it was the cause. But what do you think?

O'BRIEN: I think it was very unrealistic. But there's been a lot of unrealistic statements, frankly. So, Richard Branson is a wildly optimistic individual and he has made some claims which I'm sure he believes that they would have been flying in late '08, early '09 and, you know, that the years have gone by and the delays have mounted. There'd been at least five years of delays, but if you count all the way back to the XPrize days it's been ten years since anything has happened. So, this has been a big challenge. And he has hoped to be there a lot sooner than he is. And we're learning now how hard this can be.

FEYERICK: Yes. Certainly Richard Branson not one with a diminished expectations. All right. Rachel Crane, Miles O'Brien, we thank you both so very much.

CRANE: Thank you.

FEYERICK: Rachel, you were lucky enough to go out and see it.

CRANE: Yes.

FEYERICK: So, we'll look for your stuff online as well. Thanks so much.

CRANE: Thank you.

FEYERICK: And coming up, some White House dirty laundry got out this week. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel criticizes an Obama administration strategy. We'll going to talk to David Gergen, he worked in several administration about what's going on.

And another challenge for the President and adviser had some choice words for Israel. We'll talk about the Israel/U.S. relationship. Is it still strong?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FEYERICK: Well, Tuesday's midterm elections are coming down to the wire especially the battles for a handful of Senate seats that could decide whether republicans take control of Congress for the final two years of the Obama presidency.

CNN Political Director David Chalian joins me. David, a lot of rehearsals there going on for election night at the CNN Newsroom. What should we be on the lookout for in terms of either upsets, in terms of something that you're seeing that's actually really stuck out to you?

DAVID CHALIAN, CNN POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Well, it's just, look at the battlefield first, Deborah. We have literally ten competitive Senate races this late in the game with just a few days to go. That's what's making this whole battle for control of the United States Senate so dynamic. I think of these races quickly in three sort of different buckets. You've got red state incumbent democrats, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, North Carolina who are really suffering from Barack Obama's unpopularity and then you have this vulnerable blue state democrats from states that Barack Obama won twice in 2008 and 2012, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, they're trying to battle uphill this cycle as well, and then you have three states where the democrats are really trying to play offense. Make the republican challenge to get six seats a little more difficult. That's in Georgia, Kansas, and Kentucky. So, when all of these ten states in play you've got this shifting dynamic in these final days.

FEYERICK: So, how do you characterize the general mood out there? Has the tone of the ads been particularly bitter? What's sort of the one theme that you're seeing in all the attack ads?

CHALIAN: Well, from the republican side, the one thing is very clear. It's Barack Obama. That's the message. Turn every democratic opponent they're running against whether an incumbent or a challenger and say that they will equal Barack Obama because his approval ratings are down. The democratic side they're trying to paint the republicans as sort of extreme or out of the mainstream but even more important than their message, Deborah, what democrats are really trying to do is use data to target their voters and try to alter the electorate so that the folks that show up to the polls on Tuesday look a little bit more like they do in a presidential election year than they would in the midterm election year, that's the democrats' big turnout challenge.

FEYERICK: All right. CNN political director David Chalian. We're going to let you get back to those rehearsals that are going on there right behind you.

And now we're going to talk more about the midterms and how the results could affect what happens for the next two years and beyond. David Gergen joins me. CNN's senior political analyst and an adviser to four U.S. presidents. And, David, there are some races that are really close. The Senate races around the country. Most experts think that the republicans really have a shot because midterm elections don't usually favor the party with the president.

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: That's absolutely right. And, Deb, I think with the buzz today is that there are at least three seats now that are going to flip to the republicans. They need six overall. They're leading clearly in three. They're very likely to take. They're also leaning -- two others are leaning very heavily and the buzz today is about what Harry Reid the democratic leader of the Senate apparently has said in the last 24 hours and he said it's all comes down to Iowa, it all comes down to Iowa, and right now the momentum is on the side of the republican candidate in Iowa and Reid has said if they win Iowa, that's it. And interestingly, the year of the woman when the republicans are under assault for not doing enough about women, the republican candidate in Iowa is a woman. Joni Ernst.

So, we're going to have a lot of interesting twist and turns on Tuesday night as we look at this, but as you say, Deb, the -- it really does matter for the next two years. We've a president who is wounded. Who would like to get back on his feet and get some things done but there's been great fear in the White House if they lose the Senate they won't be able to get anything done. We'll have to see which way that goes. Can the two sides play well together? You know, breaking pattern from the last six years? Or are they going to be at each other's throats in which case it's going to be a very paralyzed two lost years for the country.

FEYERICK: Right. Which is something obviously no one in the U.S. wants. The early voters, we're seeing a lot of them, about three million coming out, who are they and could they make a difference? Are they predictors of what we're likely to see?

GERGEN: I don't think they're clear predictors, but if you see a big trend, you know, for example, there are reports in the last 24 hours have been that the early voting in Colorado is boosting the republicans. That is one of those five states the republicans are looking to in addition to Iowa that they really need and think they can get. I don't think that there's any particularly clear definition of who the early voters are. They tend to be people who travel a lot. You know, who can't necessarily be in their home place or work on the day of the elections. And they're looking for alternative ways to vote.

FEYERICK: All right. So, when you think about all the other races that are out there, you've got a lot of state legislators, who have people that are up. Does that spur a greater voter turnout or are people really coming to vote just for a senator, for example?

GERGEN: It so much depends on whether there's a big gubernatorial race. If there's a big statewide race in a state and there's a Senate race you do tend to see a higher turnout than you do in most off-year elections. Off-year elections by definitions are much lower turnout normally about 20 percent lower across most age groups and normally the midterm electorate is whiter and it's older which favors republicans. The two years from now the democrats will be favored in the Senate elections and even if they lose this time they think they can probably take it back if the loss is not a big one on Tuesday night.

FEYERICK: Right.

GERGEN: But --

FEYERICK: Do you think --

GERGEN: Go ahead, please.

FEYERICK: Do you think, David, that if the republicans do get the Senate and there is even worse gridlock than we're already seeing, do you think that could ultimately help the democrats during the presidential election?

GERGEN: I think that the democrats have a very strong argument going into this that if the republicans get the Senate, they have to show responsibility as a governing party. They could have been the party of opposition for the first six years but if they have both the House and the Senate as they would if they won the Senate, then there's going to be heavy pressure on the republicans to see are they responsible. Can we trust them with the presidency because after all this is a real prelude to the presidency. Let me just add one other thing what's coming up in this election. I think what's also striking is, there are some new generation candidates who are running who offer a very different kind of hope that we've seen in the past. They hate the politics of the past. They're anxious to work across the aisles.

One is, you know -- a couple of them are democrats. There are some republicans coming in these ranks, but down in Georgia Michelle Nunn is a big champion of the nonprofit world as she worked in that world most all of her adult life. Here in Massachusetts we have a young marine running for Congress as a democrat, Seth Moulton, three degrees at Harvard, four tours in Iraq as a marine officer. And very different from the -- that's what I'm really looking to. I'm looking to, can we also bring along some of these younger, more interesting, more promising candidates around the country republican and democrat. It would be a real help for our politics.

FEYERICK: And you've got a great piece actually on CNN.com that everybody should go look at it. Because it is, it's maybe hopeful that the tone of Washington could potentially change with new candidates of that caliber. Well, don't forget, everyone, Anderson Cooper, Wolf Blitzer, host CNN's "ELECTION NIGHT" coverage on Tuesday beginning at 5:00 eastern. David Gergen is going to be back with us just right after the break, so don't miss any of that.

And the President, well, he's not just facing opposition in the elections. There's criticism from inside his own cabinet.

Coming up, see what the Secretary of Defense said about Syria policy. And what it may say about the President's team of advisers.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FEYERICK: Well, President Obama has faced a barrage of serious National Security challenges this year. The frozen relations with Russia over Ukraine, the rise of ISIS and the emergence of Ebola to name a few. He's also facing Challenges from within his own administration. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel recently wrote a highly private and very blunt memo to National Security Adviser Susan Rice outlining his concerns about U.S. policy towards Syria.

Our senior political analyst David Gergen is back. He's a veteran of four different White House administrations. And David, this president once said that he wanted a team rivals in his cabinet much like Abraham Lincoln to challenge him, really kind of, you know, question him. Is this what he had in mind?

GERGEN: Well, it certainly has a team of rivals, doesn't he? I don't think -- in the Lincoln story of course, the point of Doris Kearns Goodwin's book is, that Lincoln chose a team of rivals but they worked pretty harmoniously together during the civil war and were of great assistance to the President and were very close to him. In this case you have now from the Secretary of Defense a memo which is not surprising for Chuck Hagel. He's a very blunt man. When you hire him, you know that. And he hired him on that basis, so I think they welcome it in one sense, but, of course, when Hagel launches out and says, basically he's very skeptical about the policies in Syria and they need to be clarified and there's also continuing complaints coming from the Pentagon from the military as well as from the civilian side about micromanagement from the White House, similar kind of complaints arising from the State Department, the President after this election is going to have to knock heads together and get it straightened out, make sure he has the team in place that he wants and make sure it works well, they work and play well together.

FEYERICK: I guess but that leads to a very logical question and that is, isn't it the responsibility, you know, Chuck Hagel, John Kerry, to sort of challenge the potentially the policy because the President has surrounded himself with loyalists like Susan Rice, shouldn't this be -- shouldn't he be looking at all aspects of whatever the policy should be?

GERGEN: Absolutely. I think he needs a thorough review of his team and his processes and the agenda once they get past these elections, they need to stand back. Frankly, I think they also need to figure out what their strategy is going to be on the domestic side. There are a number of people high up in the administration on the domestic side out in the agencies who are not quite sure what they'll going to try to accomplish in the second term and are waiting for more clarity from the White House.

But let me go back to the foreign policy. Deb, what's happened here in part is there has been a shift of authority and power away from the State Department and away from the Defense Department over several years. And the micro -- the National Security staff at the White House had a huge increase in size when Colin Powell was there, National Security adviser some 25 years ago, there were about 40 professionals and 40 staff.

They're up to around 400 now, the National Security staff. And when you have that many people and many of them professionals, you know, they want to manage, they want to get their hands into Iraq policy and Syria policy, that's the big game in town right now or Ebola policy. And so it naturally brings a lot of micromanagement. The White House suddenly starts asking the agencies, okay, answer this question, answer that question. Questions that are normally sort of resolved among civil servants or top people in the agencies, they are thrashing them out at the White House and it does, it creates endless amount of paperwork and a lot sometimes real differences of opinion and it means from the point of view of John Kerry, for example, he can see the president, but he and Susan Rice are not on the best of terms and I think one of the things they need to do is have a real sit-down in had the last two years. What's going on in foreign policy is too important to have these kind of internal rivalries.

FEYERICK: So, just very quickly, David, is the situation within the Obama administration tense? Is there sort of a tension that's perhaps precluding things from getting done?

GERGEN: No. I don't think it's panic. But I think what you saw in the Hagel memo that, you know, has now gotten into the mainstream is that a lot of skepticism --

FEYERICK: OK. Well, that was David Gergen. We lost his signal, but he is going to be coming back to join us because we've got a lot to talk about. U.S./Israeli relations are put to the test after someone in the White House reportedly called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a curse word. The details straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FEYERICK: Barring your language in the delicate world of global diplomacy, that's what happened when a top Obama administration official spoke to the reporter from "The Atlantic." The target of his anger was not ISIS or not some U.S. enemy. It was the leader of one of America's closest allies.

CNN's global affairs correspondent, Elise Labott, has more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ELISE LABOTT, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The long-simmering feud between the U.S. and Israel is getting ugly. One Obama administration official quoted in a recent magazine article making a derogatory comment about Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. "The thing with Bebe is he's chicken (EXPLETIVE DELETED)," the unnamed official said, adding, quote, "He's got no guts," refusing to make a deal with the Palestinians or Arab states.

JOSH EARNEST, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Afternoon, everybody.

LABOTT: Not surprisingly, the White House was on the defensive.

EARNEST: Comments like that do not reflect the administration's view and we do believe that they are counterproductive.

SUSAN RICE, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR: The relationship is not in crisis. The relationship is actually fundamentally stronger, in many respects, than it's ever been.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: (SPEAKING FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

LABOTT: Netanyahu shot back that he was under attack for simply defending Israel. But he praised his country's deep connection with the U.S.

That deep connection, however, is being severely tested

MARIE HARF, DEPUTY SPOKESWOMAN, STATE DEPARTMENT: Those two allies agree on every single issue. And when we disagree, we raise it as friends do. But we believe the best place to do that is privately.

(EXPLOSION)

LABOTT: Tensions boiled over earlier this year with the collapse of the Arab-Israeli peace talks and Israel's invasion of Gaza.

(EXPLOSIONS)

LABOTT: Israeli officials openly attacked Secretary of State John Kerry's failed diplomatic efforts. And the U.S. remains angry over continued Israeli settlement construction.

House Speaker John Boehner called the comments "disrespectful" and demanded the administration official who made them be fired, saying, quote, "The president sets the tone for his administration."

Elise Labott, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE) FEYERICK: And it goes beyond name calling. Relations between the White House and this prime minister seem especially bad. Israel's defense minister came to Washington last week. He was denied meetings with both John Kerry and Susan Rice and Vice President Joe Biden.

CNN's senior political analyst, David Gergen, he is back with us.

And, David, does Israel feel that it's simply being taken for granted?

DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm worried about the relationship a lot, Deb. I don't know quite what they feel. I'm sorry we lost signal there just momentarily. But let's come back to this. The -- look, the president should find out who said these things and it was somewhere near the top of his administration, or anywhere, the person should be removed from the case, removed from the administration. It's extraordinarily unhelpful when you engage in personal attacks. You can disagree on policy, on principles, but not personal attacks. It's just not done, especially in diplomacy, especially not with the Israelis, who have been such close friends for all these years.

What happens in this situation is that our adversaries, like Iran, can see maybe they can play off the two sides from each other or, you know, or maybe others in -- around Israel, enemies of Israel, can play off. It's really, really important that they put these personal differences aside. We've known there have been frictions. We've known there have been some hard feelings all along. But to personalize it this way is totally out-of-bounds.

FEYERICK: It's interesting. There was an interesting op-ed in one of the newspapers that said maybe it's time for the two partners in this relationship to take a break from one another.

GERGEN: Right.

FEYERICK: I do want to bring in Bob Baer, a former CIA operative and now a CNN national security analyst.

And, Bob, do you think that Benjamin Netanyahu was surprised to hear a top Obama official talking about him so disrespectfully? He's -- he was trying to make concessions in many, many things over the last, you know, 12 months. It seems almost a betrayal.

BOB BAER, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST & FORMER CIA OPERATIVE: Well, it's not -- it's not the right language. Relations are very bad, as David said, over the Gaza war. It went on much too long for the administration's liking.

Secondly, the administration has got to deal with Iran at various levels in Syria as well as Iraq. We essentially are partners with Iran. And the Israelis aren't happy about that.

So there's multiple issues that are driving a wedge between us and the prime minister of Israel. But to use that language is a huge mistake. When I was in the government, you certainly wouldn't express that to a journalist. FEYERICK: Sure. Because it becomes very personal. It becomes very

personal when you're doing that. It's one thing to sort of separate it and look at a policy objectively, as David points out.

You know, David, some critics would say Benjamin Netanyahu is at fault, but after his defense minister was denied access in Washington, two days later, he decides that he's going to start building settlements, which he had postponed at the request of the American government. Is the Israeli prime minister basically saying, you don't tell us what to do? David?

GERGEN: Look, the Israeli prime minister now is engaged in settlements on various occasions in ways which have been very, very offensive to the United States because it's been seen as a real setback to the efforts to bring some sort of peace with the Palestinians and it seems like almost insulting the way they've done it at times. I think it's just as insulting as these personalized comments are, by American officials and Israelis, the way sometimes the Netanyahu government has slapped the administration in the face has been deeply offensive.

And, you know, there's something that needs to -- again, somebody needs to hit the reset button on a number of things on the foreign- policy front after this election is over because we have -- we have too much at stake in the Middle East, and especially right now with Iran. There is a feeling on the part of the Israelis that we're seeking out some sort of rapprochement with Iran to have them help us against ISIS, and in exchange for that, we're going to give them much more of a break on their nuclear weapons front. And, of course, that's extremely threatening to the Israelis. We need to stick together as countries on this.

FEYERICK: Yeah.

And, Bob, very quickly, any irony in a United States official calling -- name calling while asking to remain anonymous?

BAER: Exactly. I mean, also Bebe Netanyahu is not chicken in any sense. I think the whole problem is --

FEYERICK: Yeah, no question.

BAER: -- he's a little too strong for the White House's language -- for what it wants.

FEYERICK: OK, well, thank you, David Gergen.

Bob, stay with us.

We'll be right back.

GERGEN: Thank you. Thanks, Deb.

FEYERICK: And as I said yesterday, U.S./Israel -- we want to talk to you, excuse me, about this interesting idea. Will assassinating the leader of ISIS bring the terror group to its knees? (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FEYERICK: It's no secret Washington is looking for an easy answer when it comes to fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq, but the obvious answer may not be the best one.

Let me bring in -- let me bring back Bob Baer, our CNN national security analyst and former CIA operative. He's also the author of a new book, a great title, "The Perfect Kill: 21 Laws for Assassins."

Which brings us right to the op-ed you wrote this week. Bob, you question whether there are discussions about killing ISIS boss, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. You say, look, for a growing -- for a growing sect of Sunnis, that they really see ISIS and Baghdadi as sort of a resistance movement, but why not take him out?

BAER: Well, I think there's going to be a temptation to go after him with a drone if they can locate him, if he ever goes up on a cell phone or they actually get a visual on him. How could you not? He is the head of this movement. He's a very violent man. Removing him would help, you know, degrade ISIS. But at the end of the day, we're talking about an insurrection, a Sunni insurrection. Today, I was talking with some Sunni tribal chiefs from al Anbar Province, and they don't care whether al Baghdadi is gone. They still won't work with the government in Baghdad. They consider it an Iranian-backed government, Shia, that they can't trust. And right now there are Shia militias backed by Iran in Anbar Province which they intend to fight with or without al Baghdadi. It wouldn't still be a complete solution to the problem. We would still have underlying political problems in Iraq.

FEYERICK: The U.S. has been encouraging moderate Sunnis to rise up against extremists. Do you think something like that could work?

BAER: No. They said specifically there's going to be no awakening. There's not going to be another one. They need to unify. Working with the tribes on the ground individually just isn't going to work against ISIS. And as you know, two days ago, nearly 200 tribal members were massacred near Hitt.

But I just don't think it's going to work this time. It's going to be a good try on the part of the administration, but we're going to have to get deeper into the problems of Iraq, and that may mean effectively partition.

FEYERICK: All right. And as you mention, in this great piece on CNN.com, you've got to look also at the fact that some -- maybe these boundaries need to be reconsidered now in the light of what's going on in the Middle East and re-drawn.

All right, Bob Baer, thanks so much.

And coming up, it is -- up next, new information on the victim in the Virgin Galactic explosion, live from the Mojave Desert. That's coming up. It is slow -- you're looking right there -- and unstoppable. Why

won't it melt under 2,000 degrees? Some Hawaiians will learn first hand as lava flow inches toward one town. We'll go live to the hot zone, next.

And kids hanging out eating pizza every day, life on the street, business as usual, part of the fabric of America, right? Of course. But what if I told you I'm talking about Iran, a place where Anthony Bourdain, the host of "Parts Unknown," found warm, even friendly greetings.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

(MUSIC PLAYING)

UNIDENTIFIED IRANIAN MALE: Hi.

ANTHONY BOURDAIN, CNN HOST, PARTS UNKNOWN: I am so confused. It wasn't supposed to be like this. Of all the places, of all the countries, all the years of traveling, it's here in Iran that I'm greeted most warmly by total strangers.

UNIDENTIFIED IRANIAN MALE: Hello.

ANTHONY BOURDAIN, CNN HOST, PARTS UNKNOWN: The other stuff is there, the Iran we've read about, heard about, seen in the news. But this, this I wasn't prepared for.

(MUSIC)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FEYERICK: Be sure to watch "Parts Unknown" Sunday night, 9:00 eastern, only here on CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FEYERICK: This just in. We now know the name of the test pilot killed in the failed flight of Virgin Galactic's Spaceship Two. His name is Michael Alsbury. He was 39 years old.

Our Stephanie Elam is there.

Stephanie, what more are you learning about him?

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What we're learning about this pilot is that he was 39 years old. We know that he lived and worked out here in this Mojave Desert community. We also know that he died at the scene from his injuries, that there was not even the ability for an effort for him to be taken to a hospital. Small information coming in now, but we do now know that it's Michael Alsbury who lost his life yesterday.

FEYERICK: And, Stephanie, I know they're careful about releasing details, but the other pilot, he was injured after parachuting to the ground, what do you know about him? ELAM: It's still very tight information on that other pilot. We do

not know, other than that he had serious injuries when he landed yesterday. Still very tight-lipped from Virgin Galactic surrounding the company about what that condition is of that pilot. And I think also it's important to remember here that it's very -- we're very remote where we are. We're in the desert. So the people that live here pretty much all know each other. So it's a community that is mourning all of this together. And the 400 engineers that work at Virgin Galactic, it's a big hit to them to have lost someone, to have someone so seriously injured, and then just looking at what happens with the flight program from here out.

FEYERICK: And so interesting these pilots are so brave. They know they're testing the limits.

Stephanie Elam, thanks so much.

We'll turn now to Hawaii. Today, parts of the island are under are warning. Lava is inching towards their homes.

But first, the voting, we're going to take you to, for this year's "CNN Hero" has begun. Meet Rabbi Elmelech Goldberg. See if he will get your vote.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED CHILD: I really hate when it hurts. It's a really sharp pain. I get all teary. The shots really scared me a lot, and they still scare me now.

ELMELECH GOLDBERG, RABBI & CNN HERO: When children get a diagnosis like cancer or any major disease, they lose any sense of feeling that they are controlling their lives. They are prodded and poked and touched, and they are often so afraid.

Our daughter is Sarah Bosia (ph) who was diagnosed with leukemia. She was such an incredible little soul who taught me about the power that's inside of ourselves.

Are you ready?

(SHOUTING)

GOLDBERG: OK. Begin.

(SHOUTING)

GOLDBERG: After our daughter passed away, I started a program that provides classes to children who are sick to teach them the martial arts to make them feel powerful.

Good.

Every single type of martial arts uses the breath to take control.

I'm a black belt in tae kwon do. Hold it. And then release.

We use the platform of martial arts for meditation, relaxation to allow children to gain these tools.

You're totally in control.

To really face down so much of the fear and the anger that accompanies pain.

Breathe in.

And you can see that light on their face. I feel like their souls are shining.

(SHOUTING)

GOLDBERG: You did it.

UNIDENTIFIED CHILD: I do have the power to make the pain go away and nothing's impossible, nothing.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FEYERICK: Rabbi Goldberg is just one of our top-10 honorees, one of whom will become CNN's Hero of the Year and receive $100,000 to continue his or her work. Who will it be? You decide. Go CNNheros.com online and vote. All 10 will be honored at an "All Star Tribute" hosted by Anderson Cooper on December 7th.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

FEYERICK: The lava flow on the big island Hawaii has slowed, but the danger is far from over. Those who have the most to lose can actually see it coming straight towards them, ever so slowly, yet there is nothing they can do. The nearest homeowners are less than a football field away from the flow of 2,000-degree lava.

Our Martin Savidge is live in Hilo, Hawaii.

Martin, you're seen is it from a helicopter, it is so threatening, but so slow at the same time.

MARTIN SAVIDGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Right. You can be standing here on the ground and really you wouldn't know that there was some sort of impending threat hanging over this entire community until you look behind me.

There is the road block and it is that guard by the local authorities as well as the National Guard. And that is the area beyond that is at greatest threat in this particular time. Most of the people there have evacuated.

But time is what they get here. Take a look at those you power polls. They're trying to protect them. And look what they have done. Built up the fortifications around the base. And that looks like cinder dirt, and then on top another level there that has been wrapped around with corrugated something or other, and on top of that the aluminum foil. Well, probably something better than that. But it climbs up at least a third of the way up the pole. The idea, to keep the heat away from the wood and, that way, prolong how long the lights stay on, the telephone communications, everything that is necessary. So hopefully, those poles will survive. Trying to protect the infrastructure.

Again, this is what is so unique about this particular disaster is the team they have. That's why so many people here are ready, but they haven't necessarily moved. It's why you don't see people running and screaming through the streets, "The lava is coming," because, again, we're talking about a geologic clock. But you don't want to give the false impression that there isn't danger. There is clearly danger in his area, and authorities are keeping people well informed -- Deborah?

FEYERICK: And it clearly appears that at least some homes will be safe. But right now, everybody is waiting and watching.

Martin Savidge, thanks so much.

I'm Deborah Feyerick. We'll be back at the top of the hour.

"SMERCONISH" starts right now.