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At This Hour

Polls Say Close Races Getting Even Closer; Biden Says Democrats Will Keep Senate; A Look at Election Day 2014

Aired November 03, 2014 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JOHN BERMAN, CNN CO-ANCHOR: Hello, everyone, I'm John Berman.

MICHAELA PEREIRA, CNN CO-ANCHOR: I'm Michaela Pereira. Good to have you with us @THISHOUR.

Well, folks, it's crunch time, the eleventh hour, the final countdown. Whatever you want to call it, it's here for Democratic and Republican candidates all across the nation with control of the Senate and greater power in Washington hanging in the balance.

BERMAN: So many of the races are so close and in some cases getting even closer this morning. Let's look at the close ones right now -- Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Georgia.

Looks like Republicans are starting to get some distance in Kentucky, and you know, over the weekend it looked like they might be pulling ahead in Iowa, too. But just a couple hours ago a brand-new poll on the Senate race in Iowa showing a dead heat. It doesn't get any closer than that.

PEREIRA: Many political observers think the GOP will go the distance tomorrow and paint that Senate mostly red.

Wait, though, says Vice President Joe Biden. He tells CNN, "Don't bet on it."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATESD: First of all, I don't agree with the odds makers. I predict we're going to keep the Senate.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: You do?

BIDEN: I've been into 67 races all told, and I don't get the feeling that the odds makers have it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PEREIRA: So these last couple of day there is going to be a mad dash to the finish line. It might not end tomorrow, though. A runoff in Georgia could drag this election cycle into January.

So we've got you covered all day @THISHOUR. Our Anna Cabrera is covering the race in Colorado. Pamela Brown is in Iowa. And Jim Acosta is in Washington.

BERMAN: Six-ten sophomore at the White House, Jim Acosta, but, Pamela, we're going to start with you. This brand new Quinnipiac poll, everyone looks at Iowa. Harry Reid said it over the weekend. This whole Senate race could hang on Iowa.

It might be the single-most important race in the country, and this new poll out just a little while ago shows a dead heat, closer in some cases than ones over the weekend. How does it feel out there today?

PAMELA BROWN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It feels like this Senate race continues to heat up, John and Michaela. Those poll numbers show how extremely close this race is. It really is a tossup.

And as we speak, early voters continue to flood the polls, casting their ballots. They'll be able to do so until 5:00 p.m. Central time here in Iowa.

And the numbers we're seeing are really setting records. The Democrats at this point still have a razor-thin lead over Republicans in early voting, but not the kind of lead they've had in the past.

If you compare it to 2010, the 2010 midterm, they had triple of the lead they have right now, and I think that's concerning for Democrats heading into tomorrow, because Republicans normally win on Election Day.

But we're seeing a huge push today, volunteers on the ground trying to get people to return their ballots and to vote early, leading into tomorrow.

And as this race continues to heat up, there's a little bit of controversy. Senator Tom Harkin who is vacating the Iowa Senate seat made some comments recently that didn't sit so well with Joni Ernst.

Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TOM HARKIN (D), IOWA: I don't care if she's as good looking as Taylor Swift or as nice as Mr. Rogers. But if she votes like Michele Bachmann, she's wrong for the state of Iowa.

JONI ERNST (R), IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: I was very offended that Senator Harkin would say that.

I think it's unfortunate that he and many of their party believe that you can't be a real woman if you're conservative and you're female.

I believe that, if my name had been "John Ernst" attached to my resume, Senator Harkin would not have said those things.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: I just got off the phone with someone who is with Joni Ernst's camp, and he says she found out about Harkin's comments late last night and her immediate reaction was that she was offended.

We did reach out the Tom Harkin's office and have not heard back.

John and Michaela?

PEREIRA: No comment from Taylor Swift's camp, either.

All right, Pamela Brown, thank you so much. Let's turn now to Ana Cabrera in Colorado, in Aurora, specifically.

Ana, a new Quinnipiac poll shows challenger Cory Gardner leading Mark Udall by two points. Two points is closer than some polls have had it in Colorado, Colorado, of course, a classic purple state.

Getting any sense of which side thinks it has momentum there?

ANA CABRERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, really, Michaela and John, it's anybody's guess. We can tell you in the past some of the polls close to Election Day have been misleading, and we're hearing from both sides saying they're feeling pretty good. They're feeling optimistic.

And here are a couple of reasons why Republicans are feeling good going into Election Day. Here in Colorado there are mail-in ballots. So a lot of people have already returned those ballots.

You can see people in this warehouse doing the ballot sorting, going through signature verification. We know more than a million Colorado voters have already cast their ballot, and Republicans do have an edge with about 100,000 more Republican affiliated voters returning their ballots than Democrats.

Also, President Obama's approval rating just 37 percent here in Colorado. A state that's voted for him in the past two elections. And so that, of course, has been an uphill climb for the challenger -- incumbent Mark Udall.

On the other hand, Udall's camp is saying they have one of the best ground games in the country, more than 6,000 volunteers out knocking on doors, making those phone calls today in the final push, and they are very confident that they are going to have their base turnout in big numbers today and tomorrow.

They're also relying on a very active female voter population, a huge Latino growth here in this state as well as more young people moving into the state, which traditionally leans towards Democrats.

So nobody's taking anything for granted here, guys, and we're all expecting it to be a very nail-biting election night.

BERMAN: Yeah, that ground game in Colorado was decisive back in 2010 for Senator Michael Bennett, but it will have to outperform the recent polls that Democrats want to have a chance there.

Ana Cabrera in Colorado, Pamela Brown in Iowa, I want to turn now to Jim Acosta, our senior White House correspondent. Jim, you've covered a lot of campaigns, and there are -- you know, there's what the candidates or the campaigns and the politicians say, and then it's their body language, what that says.

What sense are you getting from the White House today about how nervous they are about this election?

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, John, I think if they're nervous they're not showing it.

I was pinging one White House official over the weekend who said, you know what? You guys are writing these predictions way too early. You've got to wait until what happens on Tuesday night, and then this person forwarded to me our polling from two days before the election in 2012 that showed the president tied with Mitt Romney. Of course the president went on to win rather handily that night.

But, John, they know privately inside the White House that it looks like the Democrats are going to lose the Senate. Despite what Joe Biden said Mitch McConnell is likely to be the majority leader, and that's going to set up what is like to be gridlock on steroids here in Washington for the next couple of years.

But, you know, the question for the president is whether he can get anything done in these next two years. They haven't been able to do a whole lot with a slim Democratic majority in the Senate.

And so really it really, I think, creates a lot of questions for this president as to how much he can accomplish in the last two years of his presidency.

BERMAN: Jim Acosta, so many of these races within the margin of error, not exactly clear how it will shake out yet. We appreciate you being with us from the White House.

Remember, everyone, vote tomorrow, if you haven't voted already. A lot of states around the country, early voting has been taking place for quite some time. After you vote, you can watch the election results right here on CNN.

PEREIRA: And after that, no more guessing. Just wait and see.

Ahead @THISHOUR --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BEIDEN: We've got to figure out -- we, the president and I -- have to figure out how to better communicate exactly what's being done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PEREIRA: Details from a real insider. So inside he's vice president. He talks midterms, 2016. He talks about it all with our Gloria Borger in an exclusive interview ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BERMAN: New this morning, a fascinating exclusive interview with the vice president, Joe Biden on the eve of this pivotal election, the 40- plus-year veteran of politics and campaigns says that he thinks the Democrats will hold the Senate.

PEREIRA: But if you believe several new polls, that's looking less than certain. Time certainly is running out to change voters' minds.

Our Gloria Borger had the great opportunity to sit down and walk a little bit with the vice president in an exclusive interview. Among other things, she asked him what the White House would do differently if Republicans do take control of the Senate.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BIDEN: I think we have to be more direct and clear about exactly what it is we're looking to do, and, look, we're ready to compromise. I think they're going to be inclined, because the message from the people -- and I'm getting it all over the country -- is they're tired of Washington not being able to do anything.

BORGER: So here we are out in Florida, and you were here campaigning for Charlie Crist. And the president has stayed mostly back in D.C., largely because Democrats in red states wanted him to stay in D.C.

Was that the right strategy, keeping the president off the campaign trail? A large way?

BIDEN: I ran for the Senate six times, and one thing I know about Senate races, off years and on years, the same as governors' races is that it's all local. It all gets down to what the specific issues in that district are, that state is. And each senator makes a judgment about whether or not this is helpful or hurtful.

BORGER: Yeah, but this is the president of the United States. You have a lot of Democrats up for reelection. Normally you'd have a president out there.

BIDEN: Well, you know, look, we've been through this a lot. There are lots of places where in first term, second term, George Bush didn't show up, the older Bush, Reagan.

I mean, you know, every state is different. And, look, here's the deal. If you look at every single major issue in this campaign, the American public agrees with our position, from federal support for infrastructure to minimum wage to marriage equality -- every single poll.

BORGER: Wait a minute. Our polls show voters are angry, they're fearful, they're frustrated, not only about domestic policy like the rollout of the president's health-care reform but also on the handling of Ebola and is.

So, you know, the question is how do you fix that? The public isn't with you on that.

BIDEN: Two issues. What the Republicans -- the public is concerned and frightened because it's a frightening world. A lot has happened.

And what happens, Gloria, is, on every one of these crises there's all kinds of attention, understandably, from Twitter to major programs like yours. But what happens is when the follow-up occurs, there's not much follow-up.

For example, when the Russians invaded across the border into Ukraine, it was, "My god, it's over, things are going to -- why did they do it? To stop an election from occurring, to keep Ukraine from moving west."

But all those things happened. We've put it under control. Still a problem.

BORGER: So the public shouldn't be anxious about Ebola or ISIS?

BIDEN: No. I think the public should not be as anxious as they are, but it's understandable why they are. There is no existential threat to the United States right now. There are fewer than five cases of Ebola in the entire United States of America. The American public is gaining confidence in the fact and the way this is being handled, that science does matter. You look at what's happening with ISIS. ISIS is not an existential threat to something happening to someone in the United States of America. It's a serious problems overseas, but it's confusing and frightening and it's totally understandable. We've got to figure out, we -- the president and I -- have to figure out how to better communicate exactly what's being done. That's part of the problem. That's part of the dilemma.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: So we're joined by our Chief Political Analyst, Gloria Borger. Gloria, we both thought this was really, really interesting. It was Joe Biden trying to boost Democratic confidence before the election, but there he was again really saying there are things that he and the president need to do better.

BORGER: Yeah, he sort of turned it into a communication problem rather than any other kind of problem saying that, look, you know, this is not a matter of the fact that things are going badly, it's a matter of the fact that we haven't actually told the American public that they're going better than they think they're going. That that's something they have to work on. But I also asked him, of course, I couldn't let him get away with it, I asked him about his own plans on 2016. So take a listen to what he said on that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BIDEN: I just haven't focused on -- I haven't made up my mind what I'm going to do.

BORGER: It's not about Hillary?

BIDEN: No, it really is not. I mean, you know me too well. If I run, I'm confident I will be able to mount a campaign that can be financed, it will credible, and it will be serious.

BORGER: Would you run if she runs?

BIDEN: Absolutely. That's not the reason not to run or to run. The question is, am I convinced I am best positioned, of anyone else, to lead the country the next four years?

BORGER: Are you?

BIDEN: That's a decision I have to make.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Gloria, what percentage --

BORGER: Non-committal.

BERMAN: What percentage chance do you think there is that he hasn't been thinking about that a lot over the last several days, weeks, months, and years?

BORGER: Zero, zero. And you know, I asked him whether it was about his age or his family, and of course, he's not talking about that right now. The last thing he's going to honestly do right now is take himself out of anything. What was interesting to me about his answer was that a lot of people, including myself, have been saying well, if Hillary Clinton runs, Joe Biden is not going to run, and he clearly said, yeah, no, that's not a part of my consideration. If I run, I' going to do it because I'm ready and I think I can lead the country.

PEREIRA: Gloria, great conversation with the vice president. Thanks so much for joining us to talk more about it.

BORGER: Uh-huh, sure. Thank you.

BERMAN: It's always interesting to hear Joe Biden talk. He's been running for office since before I was alive.

PEREIRA: Refreshing take. He's candid. I was also thinking how much better off, perhaps, just a thought, the Democrats might be going into these midterm elections if some of those themes he had maybe talked about in months prior, instead of on the eve of these midterms.

BERMAN: Interesting to think about that. All right, ahead for us @THISHOUR, what you really want to know is who is going to win tomorrow, right?

PEREIRA: The crystal ball.

BERMAN: We have two experts who will come in and give you the definitive answer coming up.

PEREIRA: No pressure.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Hope is what gave young people the strength to march for civil rights and voting rights and gay rights and immigrants' rights. And women's rights. Hope, that there are better days ahead.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PEREIRA: Sounds familiar, doesn't it? Echoes of 2004, President Obama there talking now about hope on the campaign trail. What is the message here? Is this about the direction of the country?

BERMAN: I want to bring in our guests, CNN Political Commentator, Donna Brazile, is here with us in New York. Doug Heye joins us from Washington, he's the former Deputy Chief of Staff to Eric Cantor.

In one of the discussions that's out there right now in the ether, among political chattering classes, you know, could this be a wave election? Will we see big giant numbers based on some consistent theme on some unifying principle here? I was wondering what you guys think about that?

DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, with 0 percent reporting, because no one has actually gone into the voting booth right now, though many have cast a ballot by mail and early voting, let me just say this, I still believe that some of these races are nail-biters. It's very, very close. And as you know, all these races are very local in nature, although national in scope. I still believe, at the end of the day, Democrats will have a lot of great things to celebrate tomorrow. Republicans will have a lot of great candidates to celebrate, as well, but, you know what, it's really up to the voters tomorrow. Two-thirds of all of the American people will have to vote on their governor. Now remember --

BERMAN: You're saying, Donna, this is like my kids' soccer league, where everyone wins? I don't fundamentally believe that.

BRAZILE: Well, I want to believe that it's a win-win when you decide to vote, because so many people fought for the right to vote, and I think what President Obama was saying, hope, because you still can change things if you go out there and participate in the election.

PEREIRA: How about you, Doug? Where do you stand? You probably share the same hope that as many people get out there and cast their vote as humanly possible.

DOUG HEYE, FORMER DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF FOR ERIC CANTOR: Absolutely. Believe it or not, Donna, I'm actually going to vote for a couple Democrats locally here in the District of Columbia tomorrow.

BRAZILE: Yay!

HEYE: But, I think it's going to be a much better night for Republicans than it will be for Democrats. Rob Collins and his team at the Republican Senatorial Committee have done such a great job. And every time that we've had a conversation, we're talking about a different race that Republicans can win, because the map has expanded so much. So as we look at my home state of North Carolina, where Thom Tillis is really showing a lot of momentum, when we talk about New Hampshire, where Scott Brown has a lot of momentum, which is a real bellwether for the country, Republicans are poised -- and I've been a pessimist most of this time, but Republicans are really poised to take over the Senate now.

PEREIRA: We're going to ask you both to stay with us. We're going to take a short commercial break and we're going to have you talk about all sorts of other things coming up on the other side. Controversial comments, in fact, by Iowa's outgoing Democratic Senator. Would Tom Harkin have made those remarks about a male candidate?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PEREIRA: Well, the balance of power in the Senate could shift tomorrow for the first time in almost ten years. We're down to the wire in the mid-term elections. Several polls indicate that the GOP could win in enough key states to take control of the Senate.

BERMAN: Yeah, but Election Day may last about two months. In Georgia, the Senate race there between Republican David Perdue and Michelle Nunn, very, very close, about four points separating them, that's well within the margin of error, that would be a January runoff if no one gets above 50 percent.

PEREIRA: In Louisiana, incumbent Democratic candidate Mary Landrieu is behind GOP challenger Bill Cassidy. He is short, though, of the majority needed to avoid a December runoff. And a poll just out a couple hours ago from Iowa shows that race between Republican Joni Ernst and Democratic Bruce Braley tied 47 percent, 47 percent. I would say it doesn't get any closer than that.

BERMAN: No closer than that. I want to bring back our experts, CNN Political Commentator Donna Brazile and Doug Heye, who is in Washington for us. And here's the thing, I was mentioning this could go on for a long time. There could be overtime here, not only is there a runoff in Louisiana, possibly in December, a runoff in Georgia, possibly in January, no one knows if Greg Orman wins in Kansas, which side he's going to vote with. But the Alaska polls don't close until, you know, practically January anyway, because it's the time difference right there. So I guess Doug, we'll start with you. If this does go into overtime, what do the next two months look like?

HEYE: Well, we already know that the next two months are going to be an interesting transition, as we've got more Republicans coming in, as we'll have a lame duck session where we may have a lot of things considered, or nothing considered. But you're also going to have a pause button on what may happen with Georgia and Louisiana, which will just make it really interesting politics in Washington, as usual.

PEREIRA: Your view of the next two months?

BRAZILE: Well, it's a nail biter. Many of these races across the country, I know Doug is trying to convince us today that there's no need to go out and vote, Republicans are already celebrating with champagne. I would tell -- HEYE: I want everybody to vote, Donna.

BRAZILE: Cork that, Doug, because you know what? At the end of the day, people are excited about this election. They know they get an opportunity to change things, may not change things in Washington, but in their statehouses. If we go into overtime, I still believe that both Michelle Nunn, who's run an incredible good campaign, first time campaigner, the fact that she's keeping it close, that's a plus sign for her. And of course in Louisiana, anything could happen once we start stirring up that gumbo.