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Don Lemon Tonight

The Key Races in America's Choices 2014; Crazy Ads This Midterm Season; Harkin Compares Opponent to Taylor Swift; Midterm Elections Begin in Hours; ISIS Shows Execution Video to Syrian Children

Aired November 03, 2014 - 22:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: "America's Choice 2014." We are just hours away from the first polls opening on Election Day, and this could be one of those times when things change a lot.

With Senate races in 36 states across the country and Republicans needing a net gain of just six seats to win a majority. The GOP could almost taste a victory.

But what's at stake? Which are the key races? And is President Obama really the elephant in the room?

Plus, why you should never, ever, ever mention a female candidate in the same breath as Taylor Swift. We're going to get to all of that tonight with CNN's political dream team.

Want to bring in CNN's Michelle Kosinski at the White House first and our chief congressional correspondent Dana Bash is with us as well. And also our chief political analyst Gloria Borger.

I do have the dream team. Three really smart, knowledgeable women. So I'm going to start now with Michelle.

The White House has largely been out of sight, Michelle, in many of tomorrow's key races.

MICHELLE KOSINSKI, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Right.

LEMON: Some Democrats are already questioning, you know, the avoid Obama strategy. Would the White House have linked Obama on the campaign trail more? Or liked him, I should say, on the campaign trail more?

KOSINSKI: Right. And thanks for not referring to any of us in the same breath as Taylor Swift.

(LAUGHTER)

LEMON: I was very careful not to do that.

(CROSSTALK)

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm going to start singing -- I'm going to start singing.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: I like Taylor Swift. OK.

KOSINSKI: I'd be pleased. You can compare me anytime. But I think this White House, any White House would be happy if candidates out there were clamoring for the president to show up, if they were, you know, espousing those points that the White House keeps hitting, how well the American economy is doing, job growth. But they're not. And the White House knows this. So as much as they would love to have the president out there in these key races, they get it.

And you asked them, you know, even publicly, not only behind the scenes, you say what's up with this? Doesn't that feel bad for the president? And they say, you know, he knows that certain races it's just not the right time, not the right place for that. He gets it. That these candidates want to do what they can. And that means in some cases calling in the Clintons. Both Clintons but not President Obama.

It's led to plenty of awkward moments out there on the trail. And you see President Obama in some of these smaller races in blue states. However, now is the time where you have analysts debating this. Is it such a good idea for some of these Democrats to stay so far away from the president? I mean, in some cases we saw them not wanting to admit who they voted for, or, you know, if you vote one way but then you won't answer to that vote, that doesn't do a lot for your credibility either.

But I think overall most analysts are saying OK, this is the reality, they need to distance themselves in some ways, and that's just the way it's going to have to be this time around -- Don.

LEMON: OK. So I'm going to go to Dana Bash now.

Dana, either your sources -- it's a really tight race ahead. So your sources are the crystal ball, I'm sure, that you carry with you every day. And it's probably telling you something about tomorrow. What are your sources telling you?

BASH: It's not looking good for the Democrats taking -- keeping control of the Senate. That's probably not a surprise given what we've been reporting for the past 24, 48 hours that after months of it being super tight in a lot of these races, there are about 10 that we're watching across the country. Some of the states have started to break for Republicans. Most notably Iowa, where I've spent a significant amount of time this election year and probably will a lot more in 2016.

But Democrats most importantly are not feeling that great about Iowa for lots of reasons. But you know, it's unclear really if we're -- look, let me just actually cut to what we're going to be looking for, what I'm going to be looking for, based on what my sources in both parties have just told me even tonight.

North Carolina and New Hampshire. Maybe more specifically North Carolina. Kay Hagan, the incumbent Democrat, is ahead there. If she loses, it's pretty much game over for Democrats keeping the Senate. And tm happen pretty early. It could be tight, but that is really what I'm going to be looking for early in the evening.

LEMON: OK.

Gloria, the vice president was a little bit more optimistic than Dana is about Democrats.

(LAUGHTER)

BORGER: Shocked.

LEMON: You spoke to him -- I know. You spoke to him exclusively, and he is predicting that Democrats will keep control of the Senate. But you pressed him on many political experts saying that Republicans will gain control.

Watch and then we'll talk about it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BORGER: What if that were to be the case?

JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT: Well, I don't think it would change anything in terms of what -- what we're about. We know what we have to get done the last two years. And quite frankly, going into 2016, the Republicans have to make a decision whether they're in control or not in control. Are they going to begin to allow things to happen or are they going to continue to be obstructionists? And I think they're going to choose to get things done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: He's saying obstructionist or get things done, but I mean, a Republican majority in the Senate at the next two years, that could really make it pretty miserable for the president, couldn't it?

BORGER: Yes, it could. And it would, although, you know, what Joe Biden was doing was -- and in another breath he said, look, we're ready to compromise. So they can either work with us or not work with us. So he's extending the olive branch and saying, I think they're going to want to work with us. So if it doesn't happen, then they can go to the American public and say look, this is what happens when Republicans control one branch of government.

I spoke with a senior administration official this evening who said to me, and I quote, "We're not going to sign a bunch of their bills," which means whatever they pass, if the president doesn't like it, he will veto it. A couple of areas they might work together on -- corporate tax reform, rebuilding roads and bridges. But the president is still going to do his executive action on immigration.

BASH: You know what, Don, I'm going to be sort of counterintuitive here and say I -- and maybe optimistic. Maybe I'm naive. But I really think that if there is Republican control for the first time in the Obama presidency it will be helpful to the president in getting things passed.

BORGER: It could.

BASH: Of course the White House is saying that they're not going to pass any of their bills. And I actually think that they're probably right. The question is, what's going to happen when or if Republicans, namely if Mitch McConnell sticks to his word, that he is going to reach across the aisle and work on some things?

What if it comes -- a bill comes to them or gets close to them at the White House that is bipartisan? Republicans have a lot at stake. They know, at least the leaders in the Republican Party, in Congress, if they don't do this right, if they take control, it's going to be extremely hard to win in 2016.

BORGER: So I agree with Dana to a degree, which is that Republicans have to prove that they can govern. The question that I have about it is whether the Republican leaders actually can exert that kind of influence over their own caucuses. You know, you've got presidential candidates in the Senate. You've got the "hell no" caucus in the House, which could grow. And so, you know, will John Boehner and will McConnell be able to get anything done within their own party?

LEMON: Michelle, I'm wondering how the White House sees this. Let's just say that Republicans do gain control. Considering the relationship with congressional Republicans, does the White House expect to be able to work with a congressional Republican majority? Well, Republican majority in the Senate?

KOSINSKI: I mean, to some extent on certain things. And we've heard that a few times during this campaign cycle, that there have been things. I mean, Republicans have tried to defend themselves. There have been things that have passed in a bipartisan way. That Republicans saying we have done certain things to help working families. So they've defended themselves from those Democratic attacks in that way.

In reality, how is it going to work for the next two years when some big ones come up? If they come up. I mean, maybe this will be a way for some of those to come up for a vote now. That is an optimistic way to look at it. What the White House is saying, unlike what Vice President Biden seemed to be telling CNN earlier, is that if Republicans do take the Senate it is going to be a big deal. It's going to be significant.

But what the White House is saying is that the president is simply going to keep trying to work with anybody who's willing to support measures that will help America's working families -- Don.

LEMON: All right. Thank you, Michelle. And Dana and Gloria, we need to call Michelle and tell her she didn't get the blue message. The blue memo for this evening.

(LAUGHTER)

BORGER: OK. I'm in purple. Dana's in blue. Just so you know.

(LAUGHTER) KOSINSKI: Wouldn't that be politically symbolic or something?

BASH: Come on, Lemon, get with it.

BORGER: Yes. Come on. Try to go color correct.

KOSINSKI: Come along. Sure.

LEMON: All right. Ladies, I will see, everyone, listen, we're going to be around for the vote. Everyone still has to go to the polls. Everyone has to vote. And we'll be around for the duration all night. Thank you. Appreciate all of you.

I want to bring in now ace political observer Jeff Greenfield. His latest book is "If Kennedy Lived: The First and Second Terms of President John F. Kennedy, an Alternate History."

So we're going to talk about that, Jeff. I definitely want to talk to you about your fascinating Kennedy book but first I want to pick your brain on tomorrow's races. I was talking to the ladies about that. So give us a little historical perspective, if you will, on tomorrow's elections. Why are the races so close right now?

JEFF GREENFIELD, AUTHOR, "IF KENNEDY LIVED": Well, look, you could have gone back in January and had much of the analysis we just heard five minutes ago. For structural reasons. Six-year presidents, their party always does badly with one instructive exception in the midterms. The races are largely in hot states particularly hostile to Democrats and Obama in particular. And he is nationally unpopular.

What has changed a little, as we just heard, is there are purple and blue states where Democrats are in trouble, in Iowa, in Colorado, in New Hampshire. And what makes this so interesting to me is when you look at the one exception, which was 1998 when Bill Clinton was faced with an all-out sex scandal and had to admit he'd been dissembling, his party picked up seats. Why? The conventional explanation is the Republicans overplayed their hand.

I think the real explanation is James Carville's famous "It's the economy, stupid." 4.5 percent unemployment, no inflation, real economic growth. And by 55 to 31 the country thought it was basically on the right track.

LEMON: So, Jeff --

GREENFIELD: Today you have an unhappy electorate, and I think that's a dominant theme, Don.

LEMON: All right. Let's put up the -- the three states you mentioned.

GREENFIELD: Yes.

LEMON: You mentioned New Hampshire. Jeanne Shaheen and Scott Brown, right? 46-43. That's what it shoes right now. Then you mentioned, 47-45, right? That was November. That's a WMUR poll. The first one was in November 2nd. Another WMUR poll that one. And then you also mentioned Colorado, 45-43.

So these are all the states that President Obama won, yet they all had very tight races. What does that tell you? As you said --

GREENFIELD: Right.

LEMON: Is it the economy stupid? Is that what it tells you?

GREENFIELD: I think what you've seen is a discontent. And when you're talking about Senate races, and this is historically true, voters generally pick on one party. We may, despite some earlier notions, be seeing a situation where not one Republican seat is lost. And the reason why I think this is about discontent is when you look at the governor's races, which may be more significant, you find incumbents in both parties in trouble.

Red state Republicans and blue state Democrats in trouble. And that tells me that the electorate is looking for people that they can hold responsible for what they see as a basically unhappy condition. I think that is the dominant theme of this campaign. Nationally it's easy to pick. That's because of Obama. He's the president. Let's blame his party.

At the state level, at the governor level they're picking on both parties.

LEMON: All right.

GREENFIELD: And I think that's why you're seeing what you're seeing.

LEMON: Just for clarity, Colorado, New Hampshire, you said, and those races. Colorado and New Hampshire that we talked about.

GREENFIELD: Iowa.

LEMON: And Iowa. Let's talk about states like --

GREENFIELD: Iowa.

LEMON: You said there are four Democratic senators. Right? Tom Harkin, Max Baucus, Jay Rockefeller and Tim Johnson, opted to retire instead of run for reelection.

How key is the timing of the events here when it comes to the challenge for Democrats to keep the Senate?

GREENFIELD: It's very key. And for all we're talking correctly about a discontent with the president and the six-year curse, if those four states had popular -- relatively popular senators, if they had decided to run for re-election, the Republican march to majority would have been almost insurmountable. But three of those states, South Dakota, Montana, West Virginia, they're Republican -- there's no fight going on. That got them to 48 seats without firing a shot.

And Iowa may go Republican. That was Tom Harkin's seat. And even Michigan, where Carl Levin retired, I think that Democrats are going to take that but it was a fight. And so for all of the analysis that we correctly do this is part of what I like to do books like I'm doing. Random chance, or at least sometimes chance, in this case the combined retirements of actually five Democrats, have put the party under an even bigger burden than they would otherwise have been.

LEMON: Tomorrow night a lot of people are going to be wanting to write, you know, an alternate history. So let's talk about your latest book, "If JFK Lived," you imagine what JFK's president would be like. The country -- what would it look like if there had been a second term, if he had won a second term?

GREENFIELD: Well, again, no one knows. When you do alternate or counterfactual history, what I think if you have done a bunch of them is you have to get as many facts -- real-life facts and then play with them. In my view, and I need to mention the fact that random chance here plays a huge role. If it had stayed raining in Dallas on November 22nd and the bubble top had stayed up John Kennedy might well have survived that assassination attempt. It was his bad luck that the sun came up.

But if you look at the analysis that historians have brought, the consensus is that he probably would have desperately looked for a way to get out of Vietnam. Once he got re-elected. He knew about the political price. He didn't trust the military. He didn't trust the assertions that they could win. He knew about nationalism. And if you posit, if you accept that premise, that Kennedy would have found some politically viable way to get out of Vietnam and the whole rest of the 1960s is different.

I think what emerged as the counterculture becomes much less dark and that the outright rejection of America by some of the protesters I think wouldn't have happened. That's -- call it an informed guess. And what I love about alternate history, it teaches you not only to be careful about making assertions because random chance can always trip you up, but you have to look at the character and temperament of leaders and figure out how that character and temperament would have drastically changed history if different people had held those posts at different times.

So that's my best. But it is -- I don't claim that this is -- you know, I saw into the -- into the alternate future and assert this as a fact. I'm not quite that arrogant.

LEMON: The book is called -- well, the book is called "If Kennedy Lived: The First and Second Terms of President John F. Kennedy, An Alternate History."

Jeff Greenfield, many thanks.

GREENFIELD: Thanks for being -- I'm once again part of the best political team on television. It's a privilege.

LEMON: Thank you.

When we come right back, you've heard the conventional wisdom that Democratic candidates should stay as far away from President Obama as possible. But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong?

Also, a bad case of foot in mouth disease causes a top Democrat to compare one candidate to Taylor Swift. And it went about as well as you'd expect it to go.

Plus, stunning new details about an American teen's alleged plot to join ISIS and the people he may have planned to take with him.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: Some Democrats are treating President Obama like he's contagious with a nasty case of the flu and running as far away from him as possible.

Is it a sign of things to come?

Joining me now, Michael Smerconish, a CNN political commentator and anchor of CNN's "SMERCONISH."

Michael, it's no secret. Clearly the president is the elephant in the room in this election cycle. One top Democratic strategist said this, he said, to CNN, "Running away from the president is never smart. You look like chicken," I'll say poop, but you know he said the real word, or she. "Had Democrats been too wimpy, you think, to embrace their leader and their agenda. Remember what happened to Al Gore when he ran away from Bill Clinton?"

Because some people say that may be the reason why he lost the election, at least one of the reasons he lost the election.

MICHAEL SMERCONISH, CNN ANCHOR, SMERCONISH: I'm looking at the data for the final time. The data that came in from the weekend. And there's this consensus now that it will be a bad night for Democrats and Republicans, they'll take control of the Senate.

I paid particular attention to Sam Wong at the Princeton Election Consortium. Even he now is saying that it's a 65 percent chance that Republicans take control. And I'm asking myself the question you're posing, which is, would the Democrats be in that much worse of a position if they'd stood and fight?

And I have to say I think it's an open question, but you know, Don, I don't know that the president stands and fights as much as frankly he and the White House should. I think that so many charges get raised against him and oftentimes they come from fringe folks, but they go left unconfronted and they end up metastasizing into the general populace.

He's a great message person when his own name is on the line. He was in '08. He was in 2012. Not so much in 2010 and certainly not this year. So it would have been foolish for them to stand to fight with him unless he was prepared to stand and fight for himself. If that makes sense.

LEMON: I think the vice president admitted as much in his interview with our very own Gloria Borger saying that they -- he doesn't feel that they've done as good a job as they could have done getting their message across about what they have gotten accomplished. So I think there may be, you know, some credence to what you're saying.

I want to talk to you about what you asked a former GOP senator, Alan Simpson, on your show. It was Saturday. You said if Republicans win will they be able to govern? Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALAN SIMPSON, FORMER GOP SENATOR: I would think that the object of the game is not to see how much they can punish Obama and twist him in a knot. The object of the game is to make Republicans look like they can govern instead of just saying no and bitching and giving each other the purity test of the saliva test of purity.

That's my take on that. It's a wonderful opportunity for complete rebirth of the Republican Party.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: Our Dana Bash was just saying as much. She said, you know, I'm going to take a counter view here rather than just saying it's bad for the president, you know, if the Senate is controlled by Republicans. Maybe this will be a chance for him to do something and work with Republicans in the Senate. Do you agree with that?

SMERCONISH: I was asking Senator Simpson to respond to something I've heard from Governor Romney, which is him saying that if the Senate's controlled by Republicans things can get done because both the House and Senate will pass legislation and force the hand of the president, therefore, to take action.

And I was wondering what sort of things will they be passing to force his hand? Is compromise still going to be a dirty word in Washington?

It's hard for me, Don, despite what he says. It's hard for me to view Mitch McConnell as a Senate majority leader in a conciliatory posture with this president because, you know, we're all aware of the stories that go back to the inauguration of McConnell saying that his chief objective was going to be to make sure that Obama fails.

For the olive branch to now be extended I find it hard to believe. I'd love to see it. I think the country would be better served if they could all get along. And to Senator Simpson's point, Republicans it would appear are about to be handed a golden opportunity to set the table for 2016. I think there's a 50-50 shot they blow it if they go back to a pattern of obstructionism and spend their time doing things like voting for the repeal of Obamacare which is just ridiculous, it's not going to happen on his watch.

LEMON: You know what, if I were a better anchor I probably would have followed up with, you know, now that I listened to what you said when you talked about not getting the message across, about the president and things metastasizing. Do you think that -- because it has been said by some in the administration and outside that the president looks like he is sort of weary of being president now and he's not putting his all in there and that may have some effect on the election. Do you buy that?

SMERCONISH: I don't buy that that's what goes on in the core of the man. I do buy that there is that perception out there that he's pretty much turned off all the noise and has decided that it will allow the historians to establish what the real record is at some point down the line. I absolutely think there's a perception in many minds that he's too passive and himself has his eye on the clock.

LEMON: Yes. You are looking, paying particular attention to Kansas. Why is that so important to you?

SMERCONISH: I'm interested to see how well Greg Orman does against Pat Roberts. I'm particularly interested in his independent style campaign. You and I have had conversations in the past where what frustrates me is how the middle 80 percent of this country, and I base that on Pew Research data, they've been studying polarization for a year, how we cede the debate to the fringes.

And you know, the fringes collectively in this country, they comprise 20 percent of the electorate. But because they come out on a day like tomorrow more so than everybody else they actually wield 35 percent of the power. So, you know, a guy who's out there and running and using his theme music the same song that I use on my radio show, which is "Steeler's Wheel", "Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the Right, Here I Am."

I'm very interested to see what happens because if he's successful it makes me wonder if there are other individuals on the sidelines who say, you know, I would take a shot at public office, I don't want to be an R, I don't want to be a D but if there's a path for I's given that 42 percent of this country according to Gallup says I'm an independent, not a Republican or a Democrat, I think it would be great for the system to rattle that cage and have more independents step forward.

LEMON: Here I am back in the middle with you. With Michael Smerconish. Thank you very much, Michael.

SMERCONISH: Stuck. Stuck in the word.

LEMON: Stuck in the middle. Stuck in the middle with you. I don't know if the middle -- that's necessarily being stuck. But OK.

Thank you, Michael Smerconish. I've got to run.

SIMPSON: Good to see you.

LEMON: Up next a retiring -- good to see you.

A retiring Senate Democrat compares the female Republican candidate trying to replace him, a combat veteran, compares her to Taylor Swift.

What is it with older men on Capitol Hill disrespecting younger women? And the comedian Chris Rock crossed the line in his monologue on "Saturday Night Live." Listen to what he said about the opening of the new One World Trade building at ground zero. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS ROCK, COMEDIAN: There is no circumstance that will ever get me in that building. Are you kidding me?

(APPLAUSE)

ROCK: What? What do they have that just build and dock?>

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: Some really crazy ads this midterm season. And you may have noticed Joni Ernst in there. She had her own controversy with Senator Tom Harkin who compared her to of all people Taylor Swift. Joining me to talk about that and much more, Van Jones, a CNN political contributor and also Margaret Hoover who's also a CNN political contributor and a republican consultant. What is going on with these ads? Some people are calling it, Margaret, the bumpkin effect. Is that fair?

MARGARET HOOVER, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: Look, all politics is local, Don, you know that. And Joni's ad actually came in the middle of a primary season where she had a pretty crowded field and was not nearly as well known as she is now and it set her apart. It caught national attention at the time that that ad came out. So it really got on the radar of a lot of the national groups that have made a real impact in her race, in many races across the country.

LEMON: Yeah, the guy saying I will use my gun to shoot off your you know what, that was OK. Anyway, Tom Harkin, this got him this trouble. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TOM HARKIN: In this senate race, I've been watching some of these ads. And they're sort of this sense that -- well, you know, I've heard so much about Joni Ernst. She's really attractive and she sounds nice. Well, I got to thinking about that. I don't care if she's as good- looking as Taylor Swift or as nice as Mr. Rogers, but if she votes like Michele Bachmann, she's wrong for the state of Iowa.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: Some said it was inappropriate. Some people saying he didn't say anything wrong. So, Margaret, he compared her to Taylor Swift on an inappropriateness scale of 1 to 10, where do you think this stands?

HOOVER: Look, can I answer it this way? Before I give you a number, you know, I thought the war on women was something republicans were perpetuating against women, but here you have a democrat diminishing a woman who's a lieutenant colonel in the national guard to a mere pop star. I mean, I think in any other cycle you would have heard hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, had it been on the other side.

VAN JONES, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: I think it happened.

LEMON: Go ahead, Van.

JONES: Well, look, here's what I think. I agree with you. This is the kind of thing that does just completely take over a news cycle, and it has. Harkin made a classic mistake. First of all, I think it's very disrespectful, what he said. But it's a classic mistake that happens when you see a politician like Ernst, she's moving up in the polls, mainly based on personality. Her positions are actually very unpopular across the country. She's extreme on women's issues, extreme on so many issues, and you figure out how -- how could I belittle her? How could I just pop that balloon? You wind up popping yourself. And I think that's what happened in this case. It's really unfortunate. Harkin has been a national hero. He's been so good on so many issues. To go out this way, one of his last moments in public life, to be so tone deaf, I think is unfortunate. But it's because he's frustrated that her personality is trumping her policies. Her policies are terrible. Her personality's great. He tried to figure out a way to deal with it and he messed it up.

LEMON: But Van, at the time, he was really pleased with his comments and then, I think he thought better of it or maybe he got so much backlash that he apologized, but he said I didn't really mean to hurt anyone. Does that help at all that he just doesn't even realize that his...

(CROSSTALK)

JONES: Well, the room was with him. I think what was interesting was that the room, probably warm room trusts Harkin, understands his strong record on women's issues. They kind of went along with it, getting encouraged by that crowd. Then you get out of that room and you look at that thing on television and you think oh, my God, that's what happened to Tom Harkin. And we're not talking about Ernst's record, which is an extreme record, and we're talking now about Tom Harkin, which is the worst possible outcome.

LEMON: Yeah, OK. And making him look misogynistic in a way, right?

JONES: Yeah, despite his great record on women.

LEMON: Let's switch gears here because I want to play a clip of comedian Chris Rock this weekend on Saturday Night Live. Here it is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS ROCK: You've been training for a year. You finally get to the finish line and somebody screams run. They should change the name from the Freedom Tower to the Never Going In There Tower. Because I'm never going in there. There is no circumstance that will ever get me in that building. Are you kidding me? My God! What do they have? Does this building duck? What are they thinking? Who's the corporate sponsor? Target?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: More than a decade since 9/11, more than a year since the Boston marathon bombing, still too soon, Margaret?

HOOVER: Look, you know, I'm a republican who went to root for Rudy Giuliani when he was running to be president because I thought his leadership during 9/11 would be leadership that the world could use and especially in America that was in the middle of a war on terror could use. So I take this stuff very, very seriously. And I like Chris Rock a lot. You know, I don't -- I think that there's -- you've got to be able to split the difference. You can honor the horror that was that incident and you can understand where it came from and you can still get a joke. And I think that Americans can put them in their proper place. And you see this even by one of the most prominent tweets that came of the entire incident, which was a young man whose father passed away in the towers as a firefighter. But he was able to say, look, Chris Rock is just funny, right? Like we can put it in perspective.

LEMON: Van, is it forbidden territory or is it just smart comedy?

JONES: It's tough. If you watch the actual thing, that was a New York audience, and they were slow to warm. At first, you had more what I call clapter. It wasn't really laughter. It was just sort of like clapping. And then he kept at it, kept at it, and finally he broke through and got a little bit. It was tense even just to watch it. You're thinking to yourself, you might have somebody in that audience who lost somebody. And so, it was very -- it was a gutsy thing that he did. I think even the audience sitting there took a while to warm up to it. But to give him his credit, he is a brilliant comic and even in New York City, he did bring the house down with that final is the building going to duck line and Target. So you know, you've got to say if you pull that off in New York and people are laughing with you, they aren't booing with you, you don't have a dead silent room, maybe he did the right thing.

LEMON: Van, Margaret, get some sleep. It's going to be a long night tomorrow. Thank you, guys.

HOOVER: Thank you, Don.

LEMON: Appreciate it. See you soon. Will republicans take control of the senate? And which party will fare better with women? Up next, predictions from conservative star Ann Coulter.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: Midterm elections begin in a matter of hours and there may be a power shift on the Hill. My next guest is counting on it, as a matter of fact. Joining me now, Ann Coulter, conservative columnist and the author of Never Trust A Liberal Over 3, Especially A Republican. Ann coulter told me I am so lucky to have her as a guest tonight because you're supposed to be writing a book.

ANN COULTER, CONSERVATIVE COLUMNIST: That's right.

LEMON: And what happened?

COULTER: I'm so obsessed with this election I've been telling my friends the next book after this one will titled, How Books Don't Get Written.

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: You walked in and you said you're so lucky to have me tonight. I'm so excited about this. What are you excited about?

COULTER: Well, I'm not necessarily optimistic.

LEMON: This seems important.

COULTER: It is important. It's very important. For one thing, republicans haven't had both the house and the senate since 2005. So a lot of it, you hear from a lot of these, you know, idiots who don't pay attention to politics saying, well, I've been voting republican my entire life and nothing changes. Well, do you know that the bills that the house keeps passing have to go to the senate where they die when Harry Reid gets them? So if republicans were to take the senate, look, Obama will still veto them. Democrats don't have to get too nervous. But at least you will have some idea what it is the republicans are going to do. And in fact, I think if -- and I'm not saying it's going to happen. I have no idea, if republicans were to take the senate either Wednesday or perhaps in January, I think Mitch McConnell should, when you know he describes what they're going to do, just get a list of all the bills the house has passed for the past four years and read them like a list of hostages.

LEMON: Give me your prediction. The senate, you think the republicans are going to take the senate tomorrow?

COULTER: I don't know.

LEMON: You don't know. So you won't give me that.

COULTER: It could either be -- I have it up on my web page. My worst case scenario is I'm confident we're going to get 48.

LEMON: Right.

COULTER: But it could be 48 republicans, 48 democrats, with a runoff in Louisiana and Georgia, which republicans are expected to win. And we're still counting Alaska.

LEMON: Well, you're ticked off about that. I'm going to be in Louisiana, which is my home state, actually in my hometown of Baton Rouge.

COULTER: That's so great.

LEMON: It is cool because my mom is making gumbo right now for me. Thanks, mom.

COULTER: That's great.

LEMON: So when I go home I'll get to that. That'll be the highlight of it. Why are you upset? You said the third party candidates in Louisiana and Georgia are throwing a monkey wrench into it. COULTER: Yeah, yeah.

LEMON: They're screwing things up for you? For republicans?

COULTER: Not just me but for the country. It's going to cost a lot of money. Because if the -- the republicans are ahead in both of those races, but if they don't reach 50 points then there's a runoff with just the top two. So this is going to take a lot of time and money. So libertarians and tea partiers are going to make a statement. And my suggestion to them is that instead they streak through the United States congress, that would be fun, it would make a statement, it wouldn't cost a lot of money, and we'd know who won the election by Wednesday. The way it would look -- I so hate this third party stuff, and it only hurts republicans because somehow democrats have managed to get control of their green party and their crazies. And they understand that winning is important. But our side, some don't. Look, I'm more libertarian than most libertarians. I'm more tea party than most tea partiers. Run in the primary. If you lose, you support the republican. Do not stage this tea party.

LEMON: OK. So your favorite candidate is?

COULTER: Scott Brown, my love.

LEMON: Is it because he's so good-looking?

COULTER: He is good-looking, but no. It's the accent. We don't have that accent in the United States senate right now. It would be so fantastic to have that accent back.

LEMON: But you're objectifying him but -- but he's a moderate. But you don't have any criticism of him because he ran in Massachusetts and now, he's there as a carpet bagger. People say he's a carpet bagger.

COULTER: Well, first of all, his -- one of my friends looked it up on ancestry.com the other night. On his mother's side, his mother's maiden name was Rug. He goes back 200 years in New Hampshire. His grandparents are buried in New Hampshire. I mean, he's been here in New Hampshire forever.

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LEMON: All right. That's a stretch. But anyway, that's a stretch, Ann. He didn't live there.

COULTER: He was born in Missouri.

LEMON: The same criticism Hillary Clinton when she ran in New York?

COULTER: She didn't spend all her summers here and she didn't have eight generations in New York, but the point is the reason I love him is because he's so plucky, he's such a great campaigner. No one thought there was any chance republicans could take New Hampshire. One month ago, no one was talking about this race. Now, it's on the razor's edge and we could actually take it. Why? Because Scott Brown talked about immigration and he talked about Obamacare. If more republicans had done that, I can tell you it wouldn't be close in Georgia if Scott Brown were running there, it wouldn't be close in North Carolina if Scott Brown were running there. He's by far the best candidate and he has the toughest assignment this year. That's why I'm rooting for Scott.

LEMON: I've been told I have to ask you this question. So I need to make sure I get this right. You said Ted Cruz won't say he will support Mitch McConnell for majority leader, if McConnell gets elected. He told the Washington Post that he would push for the senate and conservatives to be as confrontational as possible. Is that the thing to do? Be as confrontational as possible?

COULTER: With whom? Is he saying confrontational with other republicans?

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: The democrats, the White House. As confrontational as possible, hasn't that been what's happened over the past six, seven years?

COULTER: It depends what he means. He's a smart guy, and I'm glad we have him in the senate. And if what we're looking at is in fact Obama issuing this executive amnesty, then I agree 10 percent with Ted Cruz. If he's talking about ways to overturn Obamacare, I agree 100 percent. And I think republicans will and I'm glad they have people like Cruz pushing them to that. Because I must say that was the failure of George Bush. Back when republicans had the house, the senate, and the presidency, we had that for six years. What did we get done? What did we get done? I remain a fan of the Iraq war and the war on terrorism, but other than that all he's pushing is privatizing social security, how about building a fence then?

LEMON: All right. Calm down, Ann. And you like -- you know, you spit out a book like every -- how many books do you write a year? Like 12?

COULTER: I've had 10 New York Times best-sellers, thank you for asking.

LEMON: So you can take your time. We'll wait on another one. Thank you, Ann.

COULTER: You look great.

LEMON: Thank you, Ann Coulter. Appreciate you joining me here in studio.

An American teen allegedly planning to join ISIS, but was there more to the plan than that? The latest on that story when we come right back.

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LEMON: ISIS is now targeting children for recruitment. In a secretly recorded video, an ISIS speaker shows an execution video to an audience of children in Syria. Meanwhile, back in the United States, federal prosecutors charge that a Chicago teen may have planned to bring some family members with him when he allegedly tried to join ISIS in Syria. CNN's justice correspondent is Evan Perez, and he's here now with more on that. So Evan, the judge in Chicago ordered Mohammed Hamzah Khan held without bail today because he is a flight risk, and you learned some new information about his plans to join ISIS and bring others with him. Tell us about that.

EVAN PEREZ, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: That's right, don. This was quite a bit of a bombshell in court today because the government revealed that Mohammed Hamzah Khan, who's 19 years old, was planning to bring his siblings, who are 17 and 16 years old, to fight with ISIS in Syria. He was en route from Chicago O'Hare airport to Vienna en route to Turkey, where he was set to join up with some recruiters who were going to take all three of them into Syria to join is.

LEMON: So clearly beyond this one family, right? They want to trace a broader network.

PEREZ: Right.

LEMON: And to that end, do authorities know yet where he got the money to buy these tickets? Are they learning anything about a possible larger threat?

PEREZ: Well, that's the big concern right now is they're trying to figure out whether there were some recruiters who were helping them. Now, we know they had in their journal that they found in their parents' house, they found that they had budgeted $4,000 to try to accomplish this mission. They spent about $2,600 on plane tickets to Turkey. So the question is where did they get the money? And again, who the recruiters were who were trying to get them to Syria.

LEMON: Evan Perez, our justice correspondent, thank you very much for that, Evan. Now I want to turn to a big election story that's happening about as far away as you can get from Washington. This year, Alaska, a state that's often overlooked, could determine who controls the senate.

CNN's Drew Griffin, our correspondent is live for us in anchorage right now. Drew, the senate race up there really tight and polling is unreliable, but now republican Dan Sullivan looks like he has the edge here. We can put those polls up. What are the experts saying? Will the results hinge on turnout here?

DREW GRIFFIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, yes, I guess it will hinge on turnout, although it doesn't look good in terms of this being a phenomenal year for any other kind of turnout. They've got about 20,000 people who've already voted here in Alaska. That is about on par, a little more with the 2012 election. But like you said, the polling seems to show Dan Sullivan is in a pretty good lead. People think he's in a good position to flip this state from blue to red, beating the incumbent democrat Mark Begich. But there are a lot of intangibles in Alaska. It's very hard to poll here. Some of the polls are wildly out of margins and just flip-flopping. So everybody is cautiously saying they're going to win. But you know, it's not going to be a done deal till really late tomorrow night, Don. Very late tomorrow night, I should add. LEMON: A lot of people are very interested in the question of

legalizing marijuana for recreational use, on the ballot there. Which way is, shall we say, the wind blowing on that one? Will it pass?

GRIFFIN: You know what? There have been two polls on that. Not a lot of money's being spent on that particular race. Two polls have been out. And they have varying results, yes and no. Alaska voted on this back in 2004. Should we legalize pot? It failed miserably. This time around, its supporters think it is going to pass. But it really isn't from my observation, a rallying cry to bring out a certain amount of people who are going to vote for it or against it. Really the focus has been on the governor's race and that big Alaska senate race. That's where all the money is. That's where all the noise is. And that's where all the enthusiasm or lack of enthusiasm is. So will marijuana pass? It looks like it might squeak by, but it's not a huge, huge race up here.

LEMON: Drew Griffin, you spent a lot of time in Alaska lately. So thank you, Drew Griffin. We'll be watching tomorrow night. Coming up, the polls open in just a few hours. We're going to break down all the big races when we come right back.

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