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Republicans Favored to Gain Control of Senate; Inside ISIS Campaign to Recruit Children; Richard Branson Speaks Out on Virgin Spaceship Crash

Aired November 03, 2014 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me. The clock is ticking and the political intrigue building as millions of Americans are now less than 24 hours from going to the polls.

At stake in tomorrow's midterm elections, nothing short of the balance of power in Washington. Republican candidates are gaining ground in ten states where Senate seats are up for grabs. That means the GOP could control both houses of Congress and reduce an unpopular president to the lamest duck ever.

President Obama knows his last two years will be largely defined tomorrow. Will Democrats somehow cling to power? Or will Republicans seize the majority, stifle his agenda, and set the conversation for the bigger prize, the 2016 presidential race?

CNN correspondents, analysts, and guests are here to walk us through tomorrow's races, so this morning Democrats wake up to some ugly numbers. Polls showing weakening support and the clock showing dwindling chances to turn it around. Let's begin our coverage with CNN's chief congressional correspondent Dana Bash in Washington.

DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Carol, you know, I've traveled all over this election year and the overwhelming sentiment is disgust and disillusionment with Washington. And it's towards incumbents in both parties but there are many more Democrats up for reelection when it comes to the Senate and the swing states and, of course, the president is a Democrat so momentum is with Republicans.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: Political stars came out for the final Election Day push for Republicans Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie.

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R ) NEW JERSEY: When our Republican Party is at its best, we can walk and chew gum at the same time.

BASH: For Democrats, Hillary Clinton hit three states for female Senate candidates.

HILLARY CLINTON: Who's going to be there for you?

(APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: Who cares about you? Who works for you?

BASH: Bill Clinton went to Iowa.

BILL CLINTON: And I can tell you this, you need to vote for progress, not protest. You need to think about what you want for the next six years.

(APPLAUSE)

BASH: Still, Republican and Democratic sources say the GOP looks increasingly likely to seize the Senate majority and Iowa, where James Taylor playing made it appear more peace rally than pep rally, is a big reason why.

UNIDENTIFIED MAN (singing): Shower the people you love with loaves

BASH: Democrats are down about Iowa's crucial Senate race after a weekend poll showed Republican Joni Ernst pulling ahead.

JONI ERNST, (R ) IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: So, it's not just our Republicans, it's Independents and it's a lot of Democrats, too, that see the need to change direction.

BASH: Iowa is so critical to the balance of power that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told Democratic volunteers in a conference call that if they lose Iowa it will be very hard for Democrats to keep control of the Senate. Here's why. Republicans need to flip six Senate seats to take control. West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota, which was briefly influx, are now almost sure to be GOP pickups.

Democrats are bracing for incumbent defeats in Arkansas and Colorado. Early Colorado voting shows Republicans eight points ahead of Democratic ballots according to the U.S. elections project. Democrats also say losing Alaska is likely, though they haven't gauged in an unprecedented voter turnout operation and polling is unreliable. Democrats feel better about North Carolina and New Hampshire, but polls show both within the margin of error.

And there are wild cards. The Republican incumbent in Kansas could lose to an Independent who could caucus with either party.

GREG ORMAN (I) KANSAS SENATE CANDIDATE: Both Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid have been far too partisan for far too long.

BASH: Louisiana and Georgia are so close, they will likely go into December and January runoffs respectively.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BASH: Now, Democratic sources I've spoken to say that they do have a narrow path to victory to keeping control on the Senate, but they also admit that's unlikely, Carol, and they say that their best hope is to keep the Republicans at a razor-thin majority with the hope of flipping back the balance of power as soon as two years from now. Carol?

COSTELLO: All right. Dana Bash reporting live from Washington this morning. Thank you.

We're closely to watching two contentious Senate races in Georgia and in Colorado with major implications. CNN's Kyra Phillips is live in Atlanta, but let's go first to CNN's Ana Cabrera. She is in Denver this morning. Ana, take a look at this new poll numbers. The Democratic Senator Mark Udall is hoping to be elected for a second term, but he's trailing his Republican opponent Cory Gardner by three points in the latest public policy polling. Tell us more.

ANA CABRERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Carol, that's one of many polls that now have the Republican challenger leading, which is raising a lot of eyebrows here in the state and all across the nation. We're inside one of the places where they're already sorting the early votes that are coming in. They're already doing signature verification, will hit that button to do the tallying come tomorrow night. Here's what's unique about Colorado -- every active voter got one of these, a mail-in ballot so they have the option to either mail it back, drop it off or they can still do it the old-fashioned way and go to the polls on election night.

The idea is this added convenience may lead to greater voter turnout and we know already more than a million Colorado voters have cast their ballots. So far, Republicans have the edge with about 100,000 more Republican affiliated voters already casting their ballots and turning them in compared to Democrats. But Democrats say they really weren't worried just yet, that's to be expected in Colorado. They typically see their base turn out a little bit later so we do expect that gap to close.

Here's the other thing that's interesting and noteworthy in Colorado. This is a state that has about a third independents, a third Republican affiliated voters and about a third Democrats. Independents seem to be leading towards Gardner right now in the recent polling, but it's also a state that has a growing Latino population, has a highly engaged female votership, it also has a growing number of young people moving to the state which may help the Democrats. So the bottom line here, Carol, is a lot of the analysts expect it to be a close race and say that Colorado's election could go well into the late-night hours or the wee early-morning hours come tomorrow, and it's one of those that analysts say as goes Colorado so goes the nation, so this it's one of the key reasons that this is the state to watch, Carol.

COSTELLO: And we'll be watching. Ana Cabrera, many thanks to you. So, let's head to Georgia now. The race for an empty Senate seat is too close to call. Republican David Perdue holds a slight lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn, but that advantage, four percentage points, also happens to be the -- margin of error. CNN's Kyra Phillips is in Atlanta with a closer look. Good morning.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning. I was just listening to Ana. I think we're all going to have a late night. We're all going to be working into the wee hours, Carol. (LAUGHTER)

COSTELLO: I think so.

PHILLIPS: Well, what should have been, obviously, a sure thing for David Perdue and fellow Republicans could now impact, and we've been talking about this for weeks now, who could control the Senate. If Republicans lose control of the Senate because they lose Georgia, well, that would be embarrassment on top of disaster for the GOP and that's because Georgia is a deeply red state. Republicans thought they could win easily and now it's in play and it's in play because Democrat Michelle Nunn is extremely competitive.

Why so competitive? Well, shifting demographics, we've been talking about that in Georgia, also the fact that she's been running as a sort of Republicrat. The Democrat who talks like a Republican. You know, trying to Romney, (INAUDIBLE) Perdue saying he is that out of touch, wealthy businessman who only cares about his own pocketbook. Also, as you know, hammering him on his history of outsourcing, but Perdue's, though, to criticism of his competitor this election season, well, he says she's too cozy with Obama. Major fodder for a weekend debate. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID PERDUE (R ), GEORGIA SENATE CANDIDATE: This president is adamant about getting you in the Senate because he needs you to be his rubber stamp in the Senate. His fail policies are indeed on the ballot and in Georgia they go by the name of Michelle Nunn.

MICHELLE NUNN (D), GEORGIA SENATE CANDIDATE: You know, I've spent about 45 minutes of my life with President Obama. I have spent seven years working for President George H.W. Bush's Points of Light organization. And I have a deep and abiding commitment, I've talked about it for the entire campaign, to working across party lines. I believe that we can work together to get things done.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: And Carol, you mentioned it's a close race. It is, with just four points right now separating Nunn and Perdue. But I want to show you another poll number. This one was actually broken down by race. Among African-American voters, Nunn leads with an eye-popping 85 percent of the vote. So until tomorrow it's all about get out the vote and that means knocking on doors and getting people to come out to the polls. Also, keep in mind that if no candidates here reach 50 plus one, and Dana mentioned this at the top of the hour, this Georgia race goes into a runoff January 6, Carol.

COSTELLO: So we might be waiting a long time.

PHILLIPS: Yes.

COSTELLO: Fascinating race, though, Kyra Phillips, many thanks.

So, of course, as Kyra said minorities are important because they have to -- Democrats need them to get out the vote in order to win. They also need women, especially unmarried women. So let's talk about that. I want to bring in CNN political commentator and Democratic strategist Hilary Rosen and CNN political commentator and Republican consultant Margaret Hoover. Welcome to both of you.

HILARY ROSEN: Good morning, Carol.

COSTELLO: Good morning. So let's center on women voters, shall we? Because Margaret, no one seems to know how to appeal to women or talk about them. Jodi Ernst has run a great Senate campaign in Iowa. Her Democratic contender, not so much. So how did retiring Democratic senator criticize Ernst on the issues? No. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TOM HARKIN (D) IOWA: And there's sure this -- the sense that (INAUDIBLE) Joni Ernst, she's really attractive. And she sounds nice. Well, I got to thinking about that. I don't care if she's as good looking as Taylor Swift or as nice as Mr. Rogers. But if she votes like Michele Bachmann she's wrong for the state of Iowa.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

COSTELLO: OK, so I know that was hard to hear but in essence he says I don't care what Jodi earns, is this good looking as Taylor Swift or nice as apple pie. So, Margaret, seriously?

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Nice as Mr. Rogers.

COSTELLO: Nice as Mr. Roger, OK.

HOOVER: Look, you know, it's unfortunate that Senator Harkin would say something like that, when Joni Ernst would be the first female combat veteran elected to the U.S. Senate and the first woman elected statewide in Iowa's history. So, it's sort of unfortunate. You hear about the war on women but I think the real headline here, Carol, is that the war on women has failed to solidify a lead for Democrats in women in this election cycle and you see Mitch McConnell is leading Alison Grimes, a woman, by four points in the latest poll in Kentucky.

You have got the Republican Senate candidates in Arkansas, in Alaska, and in Colorado leading by women. So you -- what you actually see is Republicans have done pretty well by all standards, especially and against the backdrop of a really failed 2012 this time around. Partly because we have good candidates, frankly.

COSTELLO: And another example of that, Hilary, some pundits say that the Democrat Mark Udall in Colorado is losing because all he talks about is birth control and abortion and it's actually turned women voters off. Agree?

HILARY ROSEN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, he is getting criticized for being more narrow, obviously. That was a significant issue in 2012. Look, to the extent that the Republican Party has woken up and figured out how to run more women, that obviously helps. It helps with the overall brand. But I think that we're playing a little too much into this sign of giant lead. There is no giant lead anywhere.

Everything is razor thin and I actually in Iowa am comforted by some early voting numbers that we've seen in the last 24 hours where actually Democrats are voting more than Republicans in early voting. And so really the key to this election, yes, it's women, yes, it's African-Americans for a lot of these Democratic states like Iowa and North Carolina and Louisiana and Georgia. But really the most important piece, though, is voters who came out in 2012, who didn't come out in 2010 getting those voters out and we're seeing that in pockets like North Carolina, like Georgia, like Iowa.

COSTELLO: OK. I see Margaret shaking her head, though.

HOOVER: No, no, I mean I was only wanted to add to your early voting point, Hilary, which is that as you know, Democrats tend to do better with early voting and what's different this time is that Republicans have maybe woken up again and actually invested in early voting. The Iowa GOP put a million dollars into their early voting apparatus. And as I understand the numbers, the Democrats are leading only by a margin in early voting, about 2,000 votes.

COSTELLO: That's two points.

HOOVER: And we know Republicans turn out on Election Day so they would need their margin to be larger going into Election Day. So I think that bodes well for Joni Ernst and for the Republicans in Iowa.

COSTELLO: OK, well, let's switch -- let's switch topics for just a second because I want to talk about minority votes, too, because that's also important. Historically midterm elections don't draw much support across the board. For African-Americans the last few cycles midterm participation hovered around the low 40s versus the mid-60s for presidential elections. So will African-American voters jump this time? Will they turn out, Hilary?

ROSEN: You know, there are pockets of voters that are disillusioned and African-Americans are clearly out there. The fact that the president has not run a national campaign, but, in fact, has been communicating in more discrete circles, you know, it's a strategy. We'll see if it ends up working in terms of African-American turnout. Having said that, I think that you have candidates like a Jeanne Shaheen, like -- in New Hampshire, like Kay Hagan in North Carolina and -- who have a really strong record of economic issues and fighting for the middle-class and I think that the biggest problem we've had in potential turnout of African-American voters this cycle maybe that there's just not enough contrast on middle-class and economic issues and that we have to work harder as a party to go back to those roots. That's what's has won in the last several cycles and I think this devolving into sort of local issues and a lot of name calling hasn't helped us here.

COSTELLO: Margaret?

HOOVER: And Republicans need to go after minority votes and I think we've seen fortunately some fresh faces in this debate. We've seen Rand Paul start going to, you know, going to the NAACP, we've seen Paul Ryan going to urban areas across the country. We see the RNC opening up an office in Detroit. So the minority vote has for many years been monopolized by Democrats and I am encouraged by new faces in the Republican Party reaching out and trying to make in roads there, too. We'll give you a run for your money, Hilary.

I think we saw in Georgia with the numbers that you just posted, African-Americans are less the issue in terms of who they're going to vote for solidly Democratic. The real surprise in this election may end up being the Latino vote which surged significantly for Democrats in 2012. The immigration debacle both on the Republican and on the Democratic side made this a very mixed bag for the Latino vote in this election, and I think that we need to work harder to narrow that gap in a much more significant way.

COSTELLO: Well, we'll see what happens come tomorrow night, right. Hilary Rosen, Margaret Hoover, thanks to both of you. I appreciate it.

From Congress to the governor's mansions across the country, it's the election that will shape the nation for the next two years. Join CNN tomorrow night for election night in America. We'll be here until the last vote is counted. We also have a new tool for you to use on election night. Follow the vote with CNN's my magic wall. John King has a preview.

JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know the old saying all politics is local? Now all politics is right here in the palm of your hand -- on your phone, on your tablet, on your laptop. CNNmagicwall.com. It's a great little tool. You can zoom in on the state, just like that, you can go county by county. So you can play along like we do on TV, or you can do a little history if you want. Let's go back to when President Obama was first elected. The Obama years have been good for the Republicans, except for the presidency. Look at that. That's when Nancy Pelosi was speaker. That's when health care passed. When the Democrats had the majority in the House. Again, that was then and this is now. This is one of the great historical things you can do using the map here.

So one of the places we'll be watching of course is the great Senate race out of the state of Colorado. Let's bloom it out. Is Mark Udall, the Democrat, going to hold that seat or is Cory Gardner the Republican going to take it away? And here is where I'll be looking a lot, Adams County. Why would I be looking there? Because that's where you have -- you can use this on your magic wall at home -- let's check the Hispanic population and let's take it out in 3d. See that in those Denver suburbs? The Latino population is growing. They turned out for Obama in 2008, they turned out for Obama in 2012, and let's say as you're watching that Colorado Senate race or any big race on midterm night come in, you think you want to say, what are they saying about this on TV? You just go up here, come off your map, just come here, click on the coverage, battle for the New Hampshire Senate race. That's another good one to be watching on election night there. The best chance, that would be the best path to the six plus seats the Republicans want to get control of the Senate, you can have a magic wall at home, on your tablet, on your laptop, on your phone, on the go, anywhere you are. And on election night if you want, while I'm doing this on television, you can try it at home. You can check my math.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: This morning, another shocking look inside ISIS and the lengths this terror group is going to, to expand their ranks. There's a new campaign to transform the hearts and minds of young children, recruiting them for their army. Senior international correspondent Nick Paton Walsh shows us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The dark they sit in makes the light from the projector all the more captivating. Children (inaudible) gathered. This is movie night, but it's an ISIS production and it comes with a pep talk. "So don't be afraid for your brothers," he says. "If anyone assaults you, from top chief to a soldier, just complain about him, and your rights will be restored to you by Allah's will." An activist secretly filmed these pictures as the main event gets under way -- an ISIS execution video. Running in their underwear in their last moments. Some of 250 Syrian regime soldiers executed by ISIS in August.

They keep watching.

What's the first movie you remember?

We don't know if they were shown the moment of death, but this is how that propaganda video continued.

A Syrian psychologist specializing in the impact of war and ISIS on children examined the footage. "What we see in these videos," he says, "is ISIS taking steps to make it normal for the children to see such things. They hope that all or at least some will go on and do the same things, not just be silent or accept it, but do it. Of course, when a child is growing up, it's a special time in his life when you can work on planting specific ideas in their minds that results in attitudes in the future."

Indoctrination comes with pageantry and study. This is a graduation ceremony for the ISIS cubs. They're not playing masked superheroes but real-life jihad. After years of sectarian bloodshed, here what they have these children sing.

(CHILDREN SINGING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

WALSH: Minds molded to their fit, schooled to remember huge texts by rote. Yet there is nothing staged about (inaudible) eyes as they chant. "God is our leader and backer, America is their leader." They talk about a lost generation in Syria's war. Here, the dogma and horror is lost, too. Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, Gazalte (ph).

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: Still to come in the "NEWSROOM," Richard Branson speaks out after the Virgin Galactic spaceship crash took the life of a co-pilot.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICHARD BRANSON, FOUNDER, VIRGIN: Yes, the risk is worth it, and as I say, Mike would have been the first to say that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: More from a new interview with Branson on the future of his space project next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: It could take a year to determine why the Virgin Galactic SpaceshipTwo disintegrated during a test flight, but one early focus of the NTSB is on the feathering system, which helps slow the spacecraft down toward earth. Investigators say the co-pilot moved the system's lock/unlock lever too early. The co-pilot was killed in the disaster. The pilot survived, and he is talking with his family and his doctors. CNN's Poppy Harlow spoke with Virgin Group founder Richard Branson. What did he say?

POPPY HARLOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, he said he doesn't want to jump to any conclusions about why this could have happened, but again, they do think it might be that feathering system, so it may be an error. They're just not sure. It's going to take a long time.

We talked a lot about the risk, because I've covered this for many years and I've asked him last year for example in the Mojave desert is the risk really worth it, and he said to me then, "unless you risk something, the world stays still." So I asked him that same question this morning. Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRANSON: Yes, the risk is worth it. And as I say, Mike would have been the first to say that. I'm sure his parents and his wife and his sisters would not say that. But test pilots would say that, because they know the risk they're taking. They know the importance of what they're doing. We've got to go through the difficult testing stage of creating a space line in order to make it safe for travelers who want to travel on that space line in the years ahead, and, you know, we will persevere and we will succeed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HARLOW: So he believes that they are going to succeed despite this death and this severe injury. CNN's aviation analyst Miles O'Brien said this morning that he thinks Richard Branson has quote, "consistently underestimated the risk," and has glossed that over to the public. So I asked Branson about that. He obviously doesn't agree, and he compared this to aviation over the Atlantic in the 1920s or '30s. But this does beg the question. How many people will stand by this company and trust them to go into space and how far is this going to push things back? A lot of unanswered questions still.

COSTELLO: All right. Poppy Harlow, thanks so much. Fascinating interview. Joining me now for the latest on the investigation, Christopher Hart,

the acting chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board, who is live near the crash site in the Mojave desert. Welcome, sir.

CHRISTOPHER HART, ACTING CHAIRMAN, NTSB: Thank you. Thank you for having me.

COSTELLO: Thank you for being here. New clues have emerged about what went wrong before Friday's disaster, and they all involve the spacecraft's feathering. Can you describe what the feathering process is and what you believe went wrong?