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Will GOP Take Senate?; Space Tourism; ISIS Recruitment

Aired November 03, 2014 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: We continue on hour two. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

The election is tomorrow and the polls are breaking Republican. Should the GOP secure a net gain of six seats in the 100-seat Senate, then the Republican Party will own Capitol Hill, will control both houses of Congress, something Barack Obama has not yet faced in his nearly six years in the White House.

But hang on just a minute there, because you have to run the elections first. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Here's the vice president speaking to CNN, saying his Democrats still have hope.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOSEPH BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: First of all, I don't agree with the oddsmakers. I predict we are going to keep the Senate.

QUESTION: You do?

BIDEN: I have been in 66, 67 races, all told, and I don't get the feeling that the oddsmakers are giving.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Be that as it may, here's the bad news for Biden, the bad news for Obama and bad news for Dems, because in Iowa, for example, a Democratic seat the Dems had hoped to hold, Republican Joni Ernst has taken a seven-point lead in a "Des Moines Register" poll.

You have that. Then you have this. In Georgia, another hope for the Democrats may be waning as a weekend poll show Republican David Perdue outdrawing Michelle Nunn. West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, these are Democratic seats right now, but will not be after tomorrow. We can pretty much say that for sure there.

Three more takeaways and do the math, the GOP owns the Senate. Hugely important election.

Here's CNN's Dana Bash.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Political stars came out for the final election day push. For Republicans, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie.

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R), NEW JERSEY: When our Republican party is at its best, we can walk and chew gum at the same time.

BASH: For Democrats, Hillary Clinton hits three states for female Senate candidates.

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: Who's going to be there for you? Who cares about you? Who works for you?

BASH: Bill Clinton went to Iowa.

BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I can tell you this, you need to go for progress, not protest. You need to think about what you want for the next six years.

BASH: Still Republican and Democratic sources say the GOP looks increasingly likely to seize the Senate majority. And Iowa, where James Taylor playing made it appear more peace rally than pep rally, is a big reason why. Democrats are down about Iowa's crucial Senate race after a weekend poll showed Republican Joni Ernst pulling ahead.

JONI ERNST (R), IOWA SENATE CANDIDATE: It's not just Republicans. It's independents, and it's a lot of Democrats, too, that see the need to change direction.

BASH: Iowa is so critical to the balance of power that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told volunteers in a conference call that if they lose Iowa, it will be very hard for Democrats to keep control of the Senate.

Here's why. Republicans need to flip six Senate streets take control. West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana, which was briefing in flux are now almost sure to be GOP pick-ups. Democrats are bracing for incumbent defeats in Arkansas and Colorado. Early Colorado voting shows Republicans 8 points ahead of Democratic ballots, according to U.S. Elections Project.

Democrats also say losing Alaska is likely him, though they have engaged in an unprecedented voter turnout operation, and polling is unreliable.

Democrats feel better about North Carolina and New Hampshire. But polls show both within the margin of error.

And there are wild cards. The Republican incumbent in Kansas could lose to an independent, who could caucus with either party.

GREG ORMAN (I), KANSAS SENATE CANDIDATE: Both Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid have been far too partisan for far too long.

BASH: Louisiana and Georgia are so close, they'll likely go into December and January runoffs, respectively. (END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: And hearing that certainly makes you perk up.

Hearing that, Dana Bash, our chief congressional correspondent, the notion, you know, of runoffs in January, which is actually after, right, this is after the Congress is supposed to convene. Be that as it may, let me throw a question to you that I threw out to "TIME" magazine's Joe Klein. And that was, what are your sources saying? What is your gut saying about the state of the U.S. Senate?

BASH: Well, sources in both parties, Brooke, are very sort of bullish on the idea that the Republicans are likely to take control.

Democrats admit that they have a very narrow path and in fact one source said it was incredibly unlikely at this point that they are going to keep control of the Senate. And on the flip side, Mitch McConnell, who is in his own race for reelection, but is running as potential next Senate majority leader, got a briefing over the weekend from a senior strategist here in Washington looking at the numbers of the polls, looking at all of the various metrics that they use, saying that they think that there's a very good chance that he's going to be majority leader.

Having said all of that, you know, the whole cliche that it's all about getting out the vote is cliche for a reason, because that really is what matters at this point. The question is going to be getting out the vote vs. voter dissatisfaction and where the rub is between those two issues because there is a contradiction.

I was out in many of these states and the concept of disgust with Washington is really palpable, and so whether that's going to translate with the Republican and Democratic base depending on where they are is the big open question.

BALDWIN: That's what David Gergen was saying. He's like, it's just been so gummed up. Whoever has control, fix it.

Dana Bash, thank you so much. We will look for you all day and night tomorrow on CNN.

In the meantime, staying in Washington, we bring in Ryan Lizza, our CNN political correspondent and Washington correspondent for "The New Yorker" magazine.

Mr. Lizza, nice to have you, sir.

RYAN LIZZA, CNN POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: How are you? Thanks for having me.

BALDWIN: I'm doing all right. Listen, before we go anywhere else, let me talk about this guy running in Kansas. This is something I know you're passionate about. This guy in Kansas running against Republican stalwart Pat Roberts. His name is Greg Orman. He's an independent. He's not yet stated which party he would side with should he beat Pat Roberts. We focus so much of the narrative here on the midterm election on

control of the Senate. Do you think control of the Senate could come down to him and his decision should he win?

LIZZA: I think actually it's a little less likely that it will come down to Orman because the -- as you in your setup pointed out, the Republicans in the last week really have strengthened in a number of places and it's looking like they might not need Orman.

Having said that, he still could be the guy. I think two interesting scenarios. If it comes down to him and he has said he will caucus with whoever is in the majority, he's going to be a little bit of an odd duck in the Republican Conference. If you go to his Web site and look at the positions he's taken, he's basically a liberal Democrat. That's where his positions would put him on the political spectrum, starting with the fact that he's pro-choice.

And so in the case of where the Republicans don't actually need him for the majority, I'm sure they will be happy to have him.

BALDWIN: Sure.

LIZZA: It will interesting to see how he votes though on key party- line votes. It will be very interesting to see what assignments he gets and frankly just how he operates as someone to the left in obviously a very conservative caucus.

So, if he's not the kingmaker and they don't need him, his life could be a little bit different in Washington. Having said all that, that race is a dead heat and Pat Roberts still could win.

BALDWIN: There's a lot of, having said that, having said that. It's like, we just don't know. We just don't know.

LIZZA: Because we're all in the prediction space here, where none of us want to be embarrassed on Wednesday morning.

BALDWIN: I know. I know.

Listen, we talk -- let me move on. We talk a lot about wave elections, elections where essentially everything breaks with one party.

LIZZA: Yes.

BALDWIN: Back in 1980, you had Ronald Reagan and the Republicans. In 1994, you had Republican sweep. 2010, the last midterm might qualify as well. Again, might, might we see a Republican wave tomorrow?

LIZZA: We could. But, you know, if someone says it's a Republican wave, you need to ask them why and, look, back up for a second. We have 36 Senate races. We're only focusing on the ones that are really close. But we do have 36 Senate races.

The Republicans weren't really very able to break into a lot of the deep blue states, as you and David Gergen were talking about. BALDWIN: The blue wall.

LIZZA: And the Democrats really weren't able to obviously make any progress in any of the deep red states.

And I think what this election is -- likely, the explanation for this election likely is the red states are getting redder and the blue states are getting bluer and basically what's happening is a bunch of red state Democrats who just barely got elected in 2008 because they had Barack Obama at the top of the ticket six years later, those red states are reverting back to Republican leadership, or if they haven't had a Republican leader before, they are sort of catching up with the times.

And I think that's the most likely scenario. I don't think that means it's a wave. It just means that the Republicans had a much better playing field and we have an election in red America and Republicans won. Now, they could -- I think that's what's likely to happen. They could exceed expectations.

If they win, say, in Virginia, if they win in New Hampshire, if they win in a couple of Obama states, then I think you start to say, OK, this is a wave because you have blue states, you have Republicans winning in blue states where they weren't supposed to. That's what I would look if you want to decide whether it's a wave or not.

BALDWIN: All right, deal. We will see, we will see, indeed, red, blue, purple, and everything in between. I appreciate you very much in Washington for me. Your candor, I appreciate it.

LIZZA: Thanks, Brooke.

BALDWIN: And make sure you stick around and watch Anderson Cooper and Wolf Blitzer host CNN's election night coverage tomorrow beginning at 5:00 Eastern. We will cover all things blue, red and everything in between and break the results down for you. Don't miss that tomorrow starting at 5:00 Eastern time.

Richard Branson, Richard Branson wanted to build a brand-new industry of space tourism and it was a dream that took a massive tragic hit with Friday's spaceship accident. Was Branson too optimistic from the beginning? Our next guest says he may have set his goal too high. We will ask why.

ISIS is teaching innocent children that murder is OK. The terror group is using brutal propaganda to train a new generation of young and vicious soldiers. Don't miss that.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: Welcome back. You're watching CNN. I'm Brooke Baldwin.

The co-pilot who survived Friday's Virgin Galactic crash is said to be alert and he's talking. And while he's recovering, I can tell you that the NTSB is collecting clues from the wreckage strewn across California's Mojave Desert trying to figure out what went so wrong, what caused this deadly crash which killed pilot Michael Tyner Alsbury.

Investigators say the co-pilot prematurely moved this crucial lever, unlocking the so-called feather mechanism.

Let's understand this a little bit more with Clive Irving. He's a contributing editor to The Daily Beast and author of "Jumbo: The Making of the Boeing 747."

Clive, welcome.

CLIVE IRVING, THE DAILY BEAST: Glad to be with you.

BALDWIN: Please let's just begin with explaining to the non-aviation experts here, when we talk about the feathering process, what is that?

IRVING: Yes.

Well, the whole Virgin thing is really like a rocket flight. It goes up and it comes down. It doesn't go into orbit. It goes about 10 times as high as an airliner. At least, this is the plan for it. The rocket fires. It goes up, reaches an apogee of about 65 miles, and then begins a descent without power. It glides down.

And this device was meant to cut in when it begins the descent. What actually happened, it seems, is that it cut in, in completely the wrong, time about 12 or 14 seconds after the rocket motor started, so right at the bottom of the trajectory.

It's not designed to do that. It can't withstand the forces that are present then when the rocket is beginning to reach its full power. So, inevitably, the whole craft broke up. The initial suspicion was that the cause would be the rocket motor, the motor that propels the whole thing.

It now turns out that we haven't really had a chance to know how that rocket motor really works, because it didn't run for long enough. This was unexplained so far why the co-pilot would have done this.

But I would like to sort of just correct the whole idea if I may of it being space tourism, because it's neither space nor tourism. This thing only brushes the very lowest miles of space. It doesn't go into orbit.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: You're weightless for just a few minutes.

IRVING: Yes. So, what you're paying for is a spectacular view, about four minutes of weightlessness and at the beginning of a tremendous sensation of being forced at terrific speed by rocket. That's what the customers are paying $250,000 for--

(CROSSTALK)

IRVING: -- they're paying for. But this accident has put back this program considerably. BALDWIN: Right.

We know and we have talked to Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic and we have spoken with him multiple times and sent crews to the Mojave Desert. He, as you well know, has said, listen, I would be on an original flight with my family before anyone else and their $250,000 tickets take this trip to weightlessness and in awe.

He says he's well aware of the risks. Take a listen to what he told Poppy Harlow.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RICHARD BRANSON, CHAIRMAN & CEO, VIRGIN GROUP: When you have incidents, you're going to get people who are quick to criticize what is a pioneering program.

And we have 400 of the best engineers in the world working on this. They are diligent, hardworking, doing something which is cutting-edge. And I support them 100 percent. So we have to accept the occasional knock, but we will brush it down and move forward.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Brush it down and move forward. He mentioned some of the criticism.

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: You yourself have been critical.

IRVING: Yes. This is more than an occasional knock. This is a catastrophe. And it raises two issues about safety. It raises issue about the safety of the pilots themselves, because when you leave a plane or craft at that height, 45,000 to 50,000 feet, where the air is extremely cold and at low pressure and the plane is moving at around 900 miles an hour, it's surprising and amazing to me that the pilot actually survived.

While the co-pilot didn't, the pilot wasn't able to do that. One then raises the question about what would happen to passengers on a flight if there were a problem like this, because how would they get out? There's nothing built into it to enable the passengers to escape. There's no escape module. And the pilots themselves would have a very risky position up there too.

So this must be regarded not as a practical thing at the moment. It's an -- as Mr. Branson says, he implies, he's right about this, it's a very experimental program. There are many things are left to be proven and the mistake he has made frequently in the past is say -- is to promise he will pass all these milestones proving that these things work in a time frame that is honestly completely impossible.

It was preposterous for him to say, as he said a few months ago, that he would be taking the first passenger flight with his son early next year before they had confronted any of the real technical challenges that arise once you start flying at that height.

BALDWIN: I think even hearing from the CEO of Virgin Galactic, he too I think when he heard Mr. Branson say early 2015, I understand he was surprised as well. And I think all of that is probably thrown out given the catastrophe that we all saw from Friday.

Clive Irving, thank you so much. NTSB is investigating and our well- wishes with obviously the family of the deceased pilot and that of the pilot who is recovering. Thank you, sir, so much, for joining me from London.

IRVING: You're welcome.

BALDWIN: ISIS, meantime, trying to grow its army with new, young, very young recruits and it's teaching these children how to kill by showing them brutal propaganda. You will see what they're showing them, these little boys, next.

And Democrats had a strategy for midterm elections. Keep it local. No unified national message. Was that a mistake? Stay with me.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: You see the pictures for yourself. While these U.S.-led airstrikes continue, the ground fighting in the Syrian border town of Kobani has just been given a huge boost, the Iraqi Peshmerga joining the Syrian Kurdish military forces, bringing with them not just new fighters, but heavy artillery as well.

Meantime in Iraq, more brutality from ISIS forces, slaughtering dozens of Sunni tribal members in Anbar province just west of Baghdad. And I just have to warn you the pictures we're about to show you are very disturbing, very graphic. But they paint this picture of the brutality here, more than 300 victims pulled from their beds in the middle of the night and executed.

And that's not the end of the story. We're also getting reports ISIS is brainwashing children.

CNN's Nick Paton Walsh has the latest on this brutal campaign to create a child army of ISIS fighters.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The dark they sit in makes the light from the projector all the more captivating. Children in Deir Asul (ph) gathered. This is movie night. But it's an ISIS production and comes with a pep talk.

"So don't be afraid. We're your brothers," he says. "If anyone assaults you, a top chief or unimportant soldier, just complain about him, and your rights will be restored to you by Allah's will."

And activist secretly filmed these pictures as the main event gets underway. An ISIS execution video, running in their underwear in their last moments. Some of 250 Syrian regime soldiers executed by ISIS in August. They keep watching.

What's the first movie you remember? We don't know if they were shown the moment of death. But this is how that propaganda video continued.

A Syrian psychologist specializing in the impact of war and ISIS on children examined this footage.

"What we see in these videos," he says, is ISIS taking steps to make it normal for their children to see such things. They hope that all, or at least some, will go on to do the same things. Not just be silent or accept it, but do it. Of course, when a child is growing up, it's a special time in his life when you can work on planting specific ideas in their minds that result in attitudes in the future."

Indoctrination comes with pageantry and study. This is a graduation ceremony for the ISIS Cubs. They're not playing masked superheroes, but real life jihadi.

After years of sectarian bloodshed hear what they have these children sing.

CHILDREN (through translator): Oh, Alawi Shia police who live to slaughter, we will come to slaughter you without you even knowing.

WALSH: Minds molded to their fit. Schooled to remember huge texts by rote. Yet, there is nothing staged about the vigor in these eyes as they chant: "God is our leader and backer. America is their leader."

They talk about a lost generation in Syria's war. Here, the dogma and horror, it is lost, too.

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, Gazantar (ph).

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BALDWIN: The Republicans want to win the Senate, and they could do it tomorrow.

But you know the saying, be careful what you wish for. Could winning Congress be the worst thing possible for the GOP's future? We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)