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AirAsia Flight 8501 Disappeared More Than 38 Hours Ago; 419 People Rescued from Burning Ferry; Aerial Search for Jet Called Off for Night

Aired December 29, 2014 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Happening now in the NEWSROOM, mystery at sea.

LOUISE SIDHARTA, FIANCEE OF FLIGHT 8501 PASSENGER: It was to be his last vacation with his family.

COSTELLO: AirAsia Flight 8501 believed to be at the bottom of the sea.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We don't want to speculate as to whether weather was a contribution or not.

COSTELLO: CNN crews live on the ground with search teams.

Also, a desperate rescue.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There are people huddled together in their life jackets.

COSTELLO: A ferry fire off the coast of Greece.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There were even reports some people were saying that their shoes were melting from the heat.

COSTELLO: And scoring "The Interview."

SETH ROGEN, ACTOR: You want us to kill the leader of North Korea?

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CHIEF BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: The film raked in more than $15 million through online sales.

COSTELLO: The Franco-Rogen flick.

JAMES FRANCO, ACTOR: Hello, North Korea.

COSTELLO: And new accusations of who was involved in the hack attack.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: You can't talk about North Korea without talking about China.

ROGEN: Wow.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Very deep.

ROGEN: Very deep.

COSTELLO: Let's talk, live in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me. It is 9:00 p.m. Indonesia.

Night falls and hope fades in the frantic search for a missing airliner. With the descending darkness, the aerial search has now been suspended for AirAsia Flight 8501. And minutes ago we learned that the search area will expand at first light tomorrow. That means more hellish hours of limbo for the families of the 162 people aboard that flight.

It's been more than 38 hours since the flight vanished over the Java Sea amid violent weather. Just moments earlier the pilot's request to climb to a higher altitude was denied. Even those leading the search efforts concede that all evidence leaves little room for hope.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BAMBANG SOELISTY, HEAD OF INDONESIAN NATIONAL SEARCH AND RESCUE AGENCY (Through Translator): If the target is on land, it is easier than if it's an underwater location because of our evaluation of coordinates we received suggested it is under water. Our assumption now is that the aircraft is under the sea.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: We're covering all angles of this developing story. CNN correspondents, analysts and experts are scattered around the globe to break down all the latest details.

OK. Here's what we know. As I said, it's been almost nine hours until the sun rises in Indonesia and search aircraft can resume flights over the Java Sea.

CNN's Paula Hancocks is at the staging area for the search -- for the search, rather. She joins us by phone.

Paula, tell us more.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, I can. Thank you.

COSTELLO: I think that's the wrong phone line. Do we have Paula Hancocks on the right line? Paula?

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Can you hear me?

COSTELLO: I think Paula is breaking up too much. Can we go to the Andrew Stevens story? All right. Andrew Stevens has more for you. Let's look at that.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ANDREW STEVENS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This morning, grim new details as the search for AirAsia Flight 8501 continues. Indonesian authorities leading the search and rescue think the plane is likely on the bottom of the sea. Based on coordinates of the plane's last transmission.

Here at the Surabaya Airport, it's become crisis central. The distraught relatives of the 155 passengers briefed here earlier today behind closed doors.

Monday marks the first full day of searching since 8501 disappeared early Sunday morning. So far the plane has not put out any signals that could help pinpoint its location. Instead crews focused on this very broad search zone over the shallow waters of the Java Sea where the plane was last tracked. At 5:36 a.m. the Airbus A-320 took off from Surabaya. Roughly an hour later, AirAsia says 8501 lost contact with air traffic control vanishing en route to Singapore.

Weather reports indicate the pilots encountered severe storms that may have contributed to the fate of the passengers and crew.

MARY SCHIAVO, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Usually it's not one thing that brings down a plane. And for a modern jetliner, a strong big jetliner to be brought down by turbulence, it's rare.

STEVENS: One theory that the plane might have stalled as it climbed to a higher altitude. This screen graph reportedly leaked by an Indonesian air traffic controller seems to support that.

GEOFFREY THOMAS, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, MANAGING DIRECTOR, AIRLINERATINGS.COM: What it shows is this particular flight at an altitude of 36,000 feet and climbing, but traveling at approximately 105 miles per hour, too slow to sustain flight.

STEVENS: CNN could not validate the authenticity of that image. But we do know that at 6:12 a.m., one of the pilots radioed for permission to avoid clouds by turning left and climbing from 32,000 feet to 38,000 feet. It would be the last known communication from the crew.

TONY FERNANDES, AIRASIA CEO: We're very devastated by what's happened. It's unbelievable. But we do not know what's happened here.

STEVENS: For these two teenage girls whose parents were aboard the flight, all they can do is wait holding onto hope that their families will soon be found.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: All right. Let's head now to the Indonesian city of Surabaya. That's where the flight originated and where those distraught family members have met with airline officials are behind closed doors. Here's what we know about the passengers and crew. Almost all some

155 people are citizens of Indonesia. Three are from South Korea. And there's one each from Malaysia, Singapore, the United Kingdom and France.

The captain of the flight is identified as Captain Iriyanto. Like many Indonesians, he only uses one name. According to news agencies in Indonesia, family members described him as a devout Muslim and motorcycle enthusiast. And that he came to AirAsia six years ago after his previous airline shut down because of poor safety records.

Of course, the big question remains this morning, why. Why did this plane go down? Well, there's an intriguing new theory out this morning from Geoffrey Thomas. He's the editor-in-chief of Airlineratings.com. He says it appears the plane was rising in altitude but losing speed. In fact it was flying so slowly the plane could not sustain flight.

Thomas points to this screen gram of Flight 8501's progress around that storm. Now this supposedly came from an air traffic controller who was tracking the airplane.

So let's talk about this. Joining me now, former airline pilot Alastair Rosenschein and air crash accident investigator Shawn Pruchnicki.

Welcome to both of you.

SHAWN PRUCHNICKI, ACCIDENT INVESTIGATOR: Good morning.

ALASTAIR ROSENSCHEIN, FORMER PILOT, AVIATION CONSULTANT: Hello.

COSTELLO: Good morning. Alistair, I want to start with you because you've flown this exact route, the very same route this pilot was trying to fly. Tell us what it's like.

ROSENSCHEIN: Well, I mean, quite often it's smooth and fair conditions. But other times you have these thunderstorms. So it's very much pot luck whether you're going to end up with some bad weather on your route. Thunderstorms are usually in the area. It's a tropical location. So it's just a question of picking your way around them and avoiding the worst of the -- of the weather.

And looking at radar plots that you had shown on your program, it appears that there wasn't really much room for maneuver in the sense that the weather was really particularly bad over an extensive area with very large storm cells. So it is entirely possible that the flight crew had flown through one of these cells.

COSTELLO: So, Shawn, let's pay more attention to this screen grab. What do you see from looking at it?

PRUCHNICKI: Well, I agree that yes, the speed looks significantly too slow. Now when we -- when we climb an aircraft, the speed will decrease. That is normal. And at these altitudes, the normal climb speed is not too much above the stall speed. So there is a -- there's certainly a reduced margin there. But that number definitely jumps out at me. And I agree that -- you know, that's certainly going to work for the investigation.

Until we get the boxes where we can get the aircraft base data to really help pull this together.

COSTELLO: So, Alistair, explain to us what might have happened. So the pilot is trying to ascend, to get above these storm clouds supposedly. And he doesn't keep the nose of the plane down. What happens when you don't do that?

ROSENSCHEIN: Well, first of all, there are some conflicting reports here. And there's some drip feed of information. It was said that the aircraft was not given clearance to climb in which case a flight level of 363 or 36,000 feet would indicate the aircraft was climbing. And it can be several reasons for that. It might have been uplifted in the storm or they may have decided they were going to climb regardless of the clearance which would be extremely unusual.

But in terms of the radar plot here, the speed given I believe would be the ground speed and not the air speed, indicated air speed which would affect the flight of the aircraft or controllability. And one would expect to have quite a significant difference in speed between the indicated and ground speed. So that radar in itself is not entirely conclusive. And I believe there were winds of some 40 knots at that altitude. So that has to be taken into account, too.

So it is rather difficult to make a decision on it. But as you get out into the higher altitude, the air is thinner. And the aircraft becomes more susceptible to what we call a jet upset. And severe turbulence which you encounter in thunderstorms can cause that to happen.

Now in a climb, you would, of course, have the nose of the aircraft raised slightly above the horizon and increase power in order to climb. Now the Airbus has auto flight systems, a very sophisticated auto pilot and air speed control. So unless the pilots choose to disengage it or it was faulty the aircraft would in fact fly at the correct speed and avoid entering a stall. So that's what I can say in the general terms. However it doesn't --

(CROSSTALK)

COSTELLO: So is it impossible for the plane to go into a stall then? Is that what you're saying?

ROSENSCHEIN: No. Not at all. The aircraft can in fact go into a stall in the event of really severe weather with sudden changes of updrafts and down drafts or tail wind-head wind components. And the auto flight systems may not be able to react in time to it. But, you know, the aircraft operator's manual would always tell the pilots to leave the auto flight systems, the auto pilot, engaged when you're in rough weather. Maintain a level altitude and not to chase the air speed.

Maybe you would have to disengage auto to stop the engines may also automatic chasing the air speeds. So you end up with the engine accelerating rapidly.

COSTELLO: Wow.

ROSENSCHEIN: Then decelerating because it wouldn't be able to keep up with the activity in the thunderstorm. So each aircraft operates manual has specific instructions of flying into turbulence. And one must assume that the pilot would be experienced, this captain, would have stuck rigidly to the standard operating procedure.

COSTELLO: But still, Shawn, he's making really serious decisions in a very short amount of time.

PRUCHNICKI: Well, that's exactly right. I mean, there's a lot going on, you know, during an event like this. And I think we need to be mindful, you know, as we've discussed before that this aircraft, you know, you can stall this airplane. And, you know, like we saw with Air France 447, a lot going on in a very short period of time.

I think something we need to think about is that when you're flying at the tops or near the tops of these storms which the last radio transmission seemed to indicate that that was a concern to the crew, is that there's a lot of ice up there. We saw this with Air France 447. We saw that with the pitot tubes collision. That changes the protection system in the airplane. When those systems become invalid or start malfunctioning the protection of the airplane as far as the ability to stall or not stall changes dramatically.

It's not always extremely clear when that change takes place. It's a high workload moment. It's going to be really interesting to see the -- listen to the CVR and look at the flight data once we get a hold of it.

COSTELLO: Right. We got to find those black boxes.

Last question for you, Alistair, because one thing I don't understand, there were other planes around this plane that disappeared. Why were they able to get around the storm and this plane wasn't?

ROSENSCHEIN: Well, the -- this aircraft was shown at 36,300 feet on your radar screen here at which would indicate it wasn't actually at the same level necessarily as the aircraft that had passed in front of it or going in the other direction. And you know, it's entirely possible that one aircraft could pass through an area of severe storm activity and not suffer too badly. And the following aircraft had the most dreadful times. These storm cells do alter power very, very rapidly.

And it is kind of pot luck. I mean, generally one would expect to have a similar sort of rough ride if you're in the same area. But it can in fact differ. And, you know, I wouldn't find it unusual to -- if the aircraft is gone through just a few minutes earlier, had a completely different experience from when I might be following them or ahead of them. So you know, that is the case.

Can I just add about the Air France incident? This is different to the Air France one. In that case, they had a known problem with pitot tubes, icing up, in other words the pilots were deprived of air speed indications. And as a result the first officer who's flying is had managed to put the wrong control input and held the aircraft rigidly in the stall all the way down to sea level.

You know, this is highly unlikely this would have been repeated in a different aircraft, with different pitot tubes, without that particular problem. This is an A-320. And pilots around the world are aware of the -- of what happened on the Air France aircraft and would avoid making the same tremendous error.

COSTELLO: All right. Well, the mystery endures this morning. But thanks to both of you. I really appreciate your insight.

Alastair Rosenschein and Shawn Pruchnicki, thank you so much.

And I'd also like to extend something, a question to you. If you have any questions about the disappearance of AirAsia Flight 8501, please send me your questions on Twitter using the #8501qs. And we'll answer some of your questions at 10:30 Eastern Time.

Also still to come in the NEWSROOM, a major rescue operation to save people from a burning ferry is a success. All remaining passengers now safe.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: And I'd also like to extend something, a question to you. If you have questions about the disappearance of AirAsia Flight 8501, please send me your questions on Twitter using the #8501qs. We'll answer your questions at 10:30 Eastern Time.

Also still to come, a major rescue operation to save people from a burning ferry is a success. All remaining passengers are now safe.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: A rescue operation has succeeded in evacuating hundreds of people from a burning ferry. The Italian coast guard says all remaining passengers have now been taken off. Five people were killed.

The fire broke out yesterday morning, knocking out power to the ship. The ferry was in route from Greece to Italy.

CNN's Nima Elbagir is in Bari, Italy, not far from where some of the evacuees have been taken.

And I know, Nima, the weather is terrible there, which is why I have to talk to you on the phone.

NIMA ELBAGIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Yes, it absolutely is, Carol. It's hailing, it's wind swept, it is extraordinarily cold, especially for this time of year.

That really is what's prolonging the agony for these passengers, even though they have now been taken off the ship itself. Their rescue ship is having difficult coming in to dock. They're looking at a variety down the southern coast of Italy. If you can imagine, they've been at sea over 24 hours, many suffering from hypothermia. Some have some degrees of burns on their body. They're very, very scared.

It really is now about getting them in, getting them safe and getting them together with their families, Carol.

COSTELLO: Do we know how the fire broke out?

ELBAGIR: Well, these are now the questions that are being asked. There are reports that perhaps a spark started below deck in the garage where containers of oil. That's why the fire burned so hot and intensity. Some passengers spoke out about the rubber on their soles of their shoes melting from the heat coming up through the decks.

But these are the questions that already Italian authorities are asking, because this was a very popular line. It was taking people home for holidays. It was taking people to visit their relatives for the New Year. This is sending shock waves not just in Italy, but in Greece, and Albania and in Turkey, where some passengers were from.

Italian authorities say that they are already beginning the investigation. They're not even going to wait until they get all passengers safe. They need answers so people can feel safe getting back on these crucial, crucial transport routes.

COSTELLO: So, why couldn't they use lifeboats?

ELBAGIR: The seas were just awful. I mean, speaking to some of the coast guards, pictures they're painting are terrifying, Carol. They picked them up, had to barrel through smoke and extraordinarily high winds top get on deck to pick up passengers.

And then when they came back up, to try to get the tugs and even larger vessels that had come close to the ship to get the evacuees, that was very, very difficult. So, life vessels would have been a suicide mission. That was part of the concern is that if any of these people had fallen into the seas, the worry was whether they could survive. In fact, some Italian authorities are telling us one of the five that have so far been tallied as dead in this tragedy, one of them they believe is because he fell into the water and wasn't rescued quickly enough.

COSTELLO: Nima Elbagir reporting live for us this morning. Thanks so much.

Back here at home, a week after two New York City officers were killed sitting in their patrol car, police have been shot at in two separate areas across the country. The latest shooting happening Sunday in Los Angeles. A citywide alert is underway, as authorities search for someone they say fired shots at two police officers.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CAPT. LILIAN CARRANZA, LOS ANGELES POLICE: One of them shot several rounds in the direction of an officer striking the vehicle. One of our officers, actually both exited the vehicle. One returned fire. At that time, suspects fled the scene. This was a completely unprovoked attack on police officers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: It's not clear if either of the gunmen were hit. Neither office per was hurt. Police arrested one person and recovered two weapons. The LAPD says another person is on the run.

The shooting comes on the same day someone opened fire on two sheriff deputies near Tampa, Florida. Police say the deputies were doing traffic enforcement in a church parking lot when they heard three shots fired. Nobody is injured there. A reward is offer for information leading to an arrest.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, surround the disappearance of AirAsia Flight 8501. We're going to bring in our aviation experts, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: It is now dark over the Java Sea. The aerial search for that missing flight 8501 is now over for the night. Perhaps the ships are still searching, but as of yet, they've found nothing substantial.

Here's what we do know: at 6:12 local time Sunday morning the pilot asked air traffic control to climb to 38,000 feet. At 6:16, the flight is visible on radar. At 6:18, it disappears. At 6:24 it loses all contact.

Why? Didn't they learn anything from Malaysia 370?

That's what I asked CNN analysts this morning.

With me now, CNN aviation analyst Miles O'Brien, and CNN safety analyst David Soucie.

Welcome to both of you.

OK, Miles, I know this is not like Malaysia Flight 370 but there's the one similarity. Why did 8501 disappear from radar about 40 minutes after taking off from Surabaya?

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well, we don't know for certain. If we look at the facts, we have an aircraft heading towards a giant thunderstorm. The crew asked to deviate to get around it and asked for increased in altitude, presumably to fly over the top.

When you're flying in those circumstances and you're headed toward a big thunderstorm, things get very dicey, very quickly in aircraft. That altitude, the performance margins are very now. What is too slow and what is too fast is separated by not much in the way of speed. And so, you have to be very precise in your flying when encountering rough turbulence, potential wind shear and then throw in icing and potentially hail, as well as the deluge of rain that can actually douse out the engines, you're in a bad situation very quickly. COSTELLO: OK. So, I'll follow that up with this question to David

Soucie. So, if air traffic controls know the I pilot is in distress, why don't they keep a really close eye on that plane? Because they know the pilot is trying to figure out getting around the storm.

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN SAFETY ANALYST: Well, asking for deviation doesn't necessarily mean I'm in distress. And it doesn't necessarily mean the same thing at all, because in this situation and many other airplanes in that area had asked for deviations due to weather. It's a very, very intense weather area.

So, that's not uncommon. At that point what the pilot was trying to do, allow the airline to clear the air ways to get to that altitude. Here's what's interesting to me. We don't have reports they were actually cleared to go to 38,000 feet. They requested it. Air traffic controllers were trying to clear that space. By the time they got back to the pilots and said yes, you're clear, there was no response.

So, it's interesting to me to see other graphics we show here about 36,000 feet altitudes because the aircraft didn't have clearance to be at that altitude yet.

COSTELLO: And we're talking about a short time period. It wasn't like 15 minutes. It was like a minute or two.

SOUCIE: Exactly about four minutes.

COSTELLO: Four minutes.

SOUCIE: Yes, yes.

COSTELLO: So, Miles, if the weather was so nasty, why was the plane allowed to take off at all?

O'BRIEN: Well, there's a lot of decisions made about any flight. The thing about thunderstorms, you take off and conditions may be different from 40 minutes later when they encountered the storm, very dynamic. So, it's not uncommon to take off with a line of thunderstorms ahead of you and make a real time decision based on what you see with your eye balls, as well as your onboard weather radar.

It's not uncommon. It happens every day. You may have been in planes where you deviate around these storms. The FAA rules are, you've got to clear by at least 20 nautical miles. You don't fly through them.

So, any decision to fly through them is taking a risk and is technically against the rules as far as FAA is concerned. Now, people do this. They thread through them, find weather radar to find holes in the worst storm cells. And they get away with it time and time again. These storms can be unforgiving. You don't know when one has your number.

COSTELLO: OK, so these storms can come suddenly. I totally get there. So is there instrumentation on board that can adequately help the pilot to determine where the hole is to shoot through the storm? SOUCIE: Yes, there is. With the radar that's on board the aircraft, you can tilt that radar up and you can see kind of where the tops are, but it's not very specific about where the tops are.

In addition to that, by the time to get to when you were looking, the -- it could have piled up higher than where it was in the first place. That's why pilots typically don't try to go over the top because as these clouds are building, they're going up. They're not going down. So you have to watch that and understand where that's going.