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No Sign of Missing AirAsia Plane

Aired December 29, 2014 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


ANA CABRERA, CNN ANCHOR: And top of the hour. Thanks for being here. I'm Ana Cabrera, in for Brooke.

We're just a couple of hours away now from daybreak in Indonesia, when search crews will be back in the sky and on the sea looking for any trace of AirAsia Flight 8501. But instead of shrinking, the search area is now growing from seven zones to 11, between the islands of Borneo, Java and Sumatra, with more nations, including the United States, now joining the search effort.

It has been almost 44 hours, almost two full days since the Airbus A- 320 bound for Singapore simply vanished from radar. With fierce thunderstorms plaguing this area at that time, we know the pilot radioed in and he asked permission to climb in elevation. But his request was denied.

Instead, he was told to go left and then nothing. No distress signal. No mayday call. But a leaked screen grab said to be from Indonesian air traffic control appears to show the plane was climbing, but losing speed and now some are suggesting this could have caused a stall.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEOFFREY THOMAS, EDITOR IN CHIEF, AIRLINERATINGS.COM: What we have been able to obtain from some pilots is a radar printout of the aircraft. And what it shows is this particular flight at an altitude of 36,000 feet and climbing, but traveling at approximately 105 miles per hour, too slow to sustain flight.

So it looks like, on this radar evidence that we have, that he was involved in some upset, high-altitude aerodynamic upset.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: Joining me now, CNN's David Molko, who is at Indonesia's Surabaya Airport, where these families are waiting for news.

David, what are you now hearing about why the search has been expanded?

DAVID MOLKO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Ana, 3:00 a.m. here, just past 3:00 in the morning here in Surabaya. As you mentioned, a couple of hours from now the sun coming up in the 5:00 a.m. hour and then the search expected to continue.

We had ships out in the Java Sea all night, up to 13 -- up to 15 -- I'm sorry -- according to the Indonesian vice president, 30 aircraft searching. Those were grounded for the night, but we expect those to start flying. A lot of countries involved. Now, Indonesia is leading the charge of course because it was an Indonesian aircraft. This happened in the Indonesian airspace between two of the islands in this vast archipelago of thousands of islands.

Singapore is also involved, Malaysia. Australia flying a P-3 Orion. That's a propeller -- four-propeller plane that can fly low to the ocean's surface and they can look for signs of wreckage or survivors. And China now also involved now willing to contribute assets in the hours ahead.

We're also hearing local reports here just from local media they may be looking at certain sections of the islands on land as well. Borneo, that major island shared by Malaysia and Indonesia to the east, as well as that smaller island to the west on the side of the Java Sea, so it's certainly hope, certainly a sense of momentum building that 48 hours in, two days after the disappearance this is the moment to see if there can be any rescue, if they can find any survivors.

CABRERA: All right, David Molko, we know you're staying on top of it. We know you're tired. It's been a long night there at Surabaya Airport. Thank you so much.

As we mentioned, just a couple of hours until daybreak there, when the search will resume for any trace of this plane.

And joining me now to discuss more, Mary Schiavo, CNN aviation analyst, also former inspector general with the Transportation Department. And here with me now in New York is Christine Dennison, logistics specialist at her own company, Mad Dog Expeditions.

Mary, we know a ditch switch could make the plane more seaworthy and an A-320 have one of these. How long could a plane float if it landed in the water?

MARY SCHIAVO, FORMER TRANSPORTATION INSPECTOR GENERAL: Well, there are a lot of variables there and also the condition of the seas would have an impact.

But I would say a few hours. Some people say indefinitely. But I don't believe that is so. There are so many ports and even if you used the ditch switch, there are so many things in the plane that can allow water to seep in. I mean, it's possible for a few hours.

But I don't think that's the likely scenario here, especially given the weather.

CABRERA: Christine, this is said to be an area where the water is relatively shallow and we heard from our Tom Foreman that even divers could be used or deployed into the depths of this area.

At what point do you start pulling out that underwater equipment?

CHRISTINE DENNISON, OCEAN EXPLORER AND EXPEDITIONS LOGISTICS EXPERT: Well, we're still at that point where we haven't really found debris, and that's really the first, the first area that they have to make.

They have to make some contact with debris, they have to have a lead to follow before you can put anything in the water. They will still be working from ships. I think the P-3 Orion is doing the aerials. They are looking for clues. They are looking for something that they can put on the grid and start from there.

Divers would certainly be a possibility once we have an area that needs to be investigated. Again, the depths are probably 40 meters. The water temperature is 70 or 80 degrees, I believe, which is very comfortable. You're still getting into -- not to get to too technical, but decompression diving, but you can put eyes underwater at this depth as well.

CABRERA: But you need to have a little bit more guidance before we do that, you're saying?

DENNISON: Absolutely. You really need to have something.

CABRERA: Mary, given this is supposed to be such a travelled waterway, so busy with different ships, is it weird that there have been seemingly no clues, no signs, no sightings of any debris connected to this plane?

SCHIAVO: Well, yes, given that it's a very busy area and there's so much traffic both in the air and on the water, it is a little odd that no one has seen anything yet, but then, you know, on the map, on the globe, it looks deceivingly small.

This is the Java Sea. There was another plane that went down there, oh, I guess it was a couple of years ago, and it took several weeks before they found it, and they found it finally by some wreckage washing up on the shore and then they were able to backtrack and find it. So it wouldn't be the first time that a plane went down in the Java Sea and it was difficult to find.

That being said, since they have the radar where the last communication and the last radar hit came from, I do think they will be able to, you know, narrow in very soon and very quickly and, of course, there's always the possibility that it is on land.

CABRERA: Christine, I know you have worked with families who have lost loved ones in crashes, some of them who never have all the answers that they hope to learn. What do you tell them?

DENNISON: It's very hard. I worked on search and found a World War II submarine which was going back 70 years, where you have the children that are now in their 70s still waiting for answers.

And one thing that I found in knowing them and interviewing them is just that pain, when there's no closure and you're just hoping. They still -- there's always that little bit of hope that you will see your loved one again. It resonates throughout their lives.

And so a situation like this is heartbreaking for the families to just not have any answers at this point. And it's very difficult until we have something to let them know they are here and we found them, they are dead, and give them some closure.

CABRERA: To be able to have that closure.

DENNISON: Absolutely. It's very hard.

CABRERA: Well, Christine Dennison and Mary Schiavo, thanks to both of you. We appreciate it.

DENNISON: Thank you.

CABRERA: Just ahead, take a look at this video. This is a lightning storm in Dallas earlier this year. And, next, one company tells me how it tracks lightning strikes like this one and why a strike could not bring down a plane.

Plus, despite being the second plane in 10 months to simply disappear, there are many differences between this plane and Flight 370. So we will discuss as our CNN special coverage rolls on.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: Still a lot of challenges, still a lot of questions. Will bad weather continue to hamper searchers when they start again in just a few hours?

The vice president of Indonesia, where most of the passengers are from, spoke about the severe conditions. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JUSUF KALLA, INDONESIAN VICE PRESIDENT: Searching ship operation in this area, in the area, and 15 airplanes and helicopters operating in them. It is not easy, of course, in operation in the sea, especially in bad weather like this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CABRERA: So a little bit difficult to understand him, but he's talking about the rough seas and the bad weather that are hampering the searchers.

Now, bad weather may have also played a part in the plane's disappearance. The plane was still traceable after -- for about five minutes before it disappeared after the pilot initially talked about bad weather and then asked to increase his elevation.

This is all according to Indonesian state media. One minute before it lost contact is when the pilot actually requested to go higher because of the bad weather. His request was denied.

We have some kinds of clouds that you might see in a thunderstorm here where you can see how high they go and with the heavy rain, even ice at these altitudes.

I want to bring in meteorologist Chad Myers to explain a little bit more about this. Just how bad was the weather for Flight 8501, Chad?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Certainly, when the pilot took off, did not expect to get to what he saw when he got there 45 minutes or so later.

This was a violent line of weather, Ana, and it just -- it developed all at once. Another line is actually developing right now very close to where the search area is, slightly south, but I will show that on radar. Some of these cumulonimbus storms were occasionally 53,000- feet tall, up-and-down motion, back-and-forth motion, a lot of violent shaking in the thunderstorm itself.

The pilot wants to try to fly around those storms because a plane flies because of the Bernoulli principle. The area and the distance it takes to go over the wing is greater than the distance it takes to go under the wing, causing the lift of the wing. And that's the only reason why the plane flies.

It is not about tilting the plane one way or the other. It's the Bernoulli principle that the top of the wing has a longer distance and that makes the plane go up. That was the weather right there, that big red area you see lining up thunderstorms. Maybe pilots will be thinking a little bit better about going left or right tonight after this event.

We don't know whether weather was actually the cause, but for most of the flight where the weather was good the flight had no problems whatsoever. We are going see some winds tonight, 15 miles per hour or so, but not probably like what we saw over that area, that search area.

When the pilot took off, this is what he had, occasional embedded C.B.s, or cumulonimbus clouds, to 53,000-feet tall. These planes can't fly at 53,000 feet. He couldn't have climbed over the top of that storm anyway.

Where you're in the ITCZ, Intertropical Convergence Zone, over the entire world, right along the equator, because that's about where we are, these winds collide. When they collide, the wind can't down. It has to go up because the earth in the way and this rising motion crates big thunderstorms. Happens all the time all the way around the globe. That's where they were right here.

The search area is right here and more rain coming in, but not as bad as the weather has been. It's getting better for search areas. The wind of 13, 15 miles per hour is not bad. What they don't want are winds at 30 or 40 or 50 because that makes the sea so choppy you can't see anything at all.

CABRERA: All right, Chad Myers, thank you.

A company that tracks world weather conditions says there were a number of lightning strikes near the path of Flight 8501.

With me now, the CEO of that company, Earth Networks' Bob Marshall. Also here again, CNN aviation analyst Mary Schiavo, who used to be an inspector general with the Department of Transportation.

Bob, your company uses lightning sensor technology. I want you to walk us through the video that you provided from a storm you captured recently in Dallas earlier this year. We're showing it right now. Go ahead.

BOB MARSHALL, FOUNDER AND CEO, EARTH NETWORKS: Yes.

The video you're seeing on the screen is an example of a severe thunderstorm. It may be similar to the one that that plane flew into. What you see there is just an extremely violent storm. You see bubbling of the clouds and the extreme amount of lightning that's in that storm. When you have that kind of situation with that much lightning, one thing you know is there's very severe turbulence and you definitely do not want to fly into that -- plane -- I'm sorry -- into that storm.

That's why the lightning data is so important. It's really not about throwing itself. It's the fact that the lightning identifies the most severe areas of turbulence and danger in a storm.

CABRERA: Mary, what's typical?

Do pilots fly above that usually?

SCHIAVO: No, they try to fly around it or avoid it because many times you can't get above it or the storm is the climbing and developing faster than the pilot can climb and go up and over it and you don't want to go near the ends of the thunderhead clouds because they are called the anvil clouds.

And at the end of those clouds on the top of these weather formations, that's the most severe weather of all, horrendous hail, winds. That's where you don't want to be. They usually go around it or avoid it.

CABRERA: Bob, you say even if lightning struck the plane, that that wouldn't necessarily bring the plane down, right?

MARSHALL: No, that's right. Planes are designed to withstand lightning strikes and that happens on a daily basis and that should not be the issue.

In my mind, as I have reflected on over the last day or so, there's a lot of talk now about technology and why don't we have real-time data to know exactly where that plane is at all times. The bigger question to my mind is why isn't real-time weather data available to the pilots and the controllers that would prevent them from flying into this storm to begin with?

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: Is that true, Mary?

SCHIAVO: Well, not to the degree of information that Mr. Marshall is talking about. They have on-board radar in big commercial planes and, of course, the airlines depending upon how good they want to be can have really good in-house meteorology departments and then, of course, you have the National Weather Service and air traffic control.

But it all depends on how much you want to look at it and this kind of data concerning the lightning is not readily available.

CABRERA: And of course it's somewhat subjective. Would they have grounded this flight in the U.S., do you think, Mary?

SCHIAVO: Oh, I think in the U.S., this flight would have been canceled because of -- for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the U.S. carriers would have deal with schedule disruptions because the flight might have been deviated, et cetera. I do think it would have been canceled in the United States without a doubt.

(CROSSTALK)

CABRERA: ... weather is not uncommon in this part of the world, right?

MARSHALL: No, it's definitely not.

This is the Intertropical Convergence Zone. There's tons of storms. And it's not dissimilar to a part of the United States and the severe weather season here. I think one of the keys here is that, you know, lightning is a critical piece of information and the National Transportation Safety Board in a 2012 safety report called for the use of total lightning data for pilots and controllers to avoid these specific situations.

They looked at 12 different incidents and accidents in recent times here where there was situations, very dangerous situations, fortunately no fatalities, and the conclusion was even here in the U.S. with the radar that we have, planes flew right into severe convective storms and experienced damage and injuries on the planes.

And the conclusion was that if you use lightning information you would have steered clear there. And the question is, you know, why can't we get this technology deployed globally? Why can't we get this information in the hands of the pilots and the controllers to prevent these planes from flying there?

And if we can do that, we wouldn't be sitting here talking today.

CABRERA: Lessons to be learned.

Bob Marshall and Mary Schiavo, thanks to both of you.

We do know the last request from the cockpit -- just ahead, what else we are learning about the captain of the missing plane.

Plus, the families of the 162 people on board are suffering. They are waiting for any shred of news. What we're learning about their loved ones who were on the flight next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: It has been an agonizing time for the families of the passengers aboard the missing AirAsia flight; 162 people were on the plane, and among 18 children, including an infant.

Authorities have now set up a disaster victims identification area at the airport, as families still hold out some hope for a miracle.

Now, Rosa Flores is joining me now.

You have been gathering information and listening to what families are speaking out. I can only imagine what they are going through. What are you hearing?

ROSA FLORES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: When you said the word agonizing, that's the right word. It's been agonizing for these families.

Imagine being at the airport waiting to hear about your loved one and you just don't get any news. That's exactly what these families are going through. It's an agonizing wait for them. I just got off the phone with the principal of the Surabaya Cambridge School. She knows five people on board. Three of them are her students and then the parents of those students. Here's what she had to say.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's hard to believe that this happened to my students. We are still finding hope in God. It's hard to believe. Hopefully, they are safe. But I don't know. We are just praying now.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

FLORES: There's definitely a lot of praying going on. Imagine this. There's mothers, fathers, daughters, cousins on this flight. Now, there's also a man who was just about to put a ring on the finger of a woman. Here's what his fiancee had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: My fiancee and his family was on that plane. It was supposed to be their last vacation before us got married. It was to be his last vacation with his family.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FLORES: Some tough words there.

Now, like Ana mentioned, there are more children on board. Take a look at this tweet. It says, "Search operations have resumed this morning. We extend our thoughts to Choi Min Man's family during this difficult time."

Now, that man is a U.K. energy company executive. He was on board with his 2-year-old daughter, so some difficult, difficult times for these 162 families who were at the airport waiting and hoping to hear some good news.

CABRERA: They must be so exhausted too.

(CROSSTALK) FLORES: It's emotionally exhausting. just imagine.

CABRERA: Draining.

FLORES: Yes, definitely so.

CABRERA: Our hearts go out to them.

Rosa Flores, thank you.

We're just hours away now from the ships and the planes resuming their search. Up ahead, we will let you know how this search area is changing.

And then a vanished plane, sounds familiar, right? Anxious families, a frantic search, so similar to what happened in March with Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. But there are some important differences between these two situations. We will explore those just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: Bottom of the hour. Welcome back. I'm Ana Cabrera.

And, soon, the families of 162 people aboard Flight 8501 will be waking up to another agonizing, desperate day, day three now of the search for any trace of their loved ones. But instead of being narrowed down, the areas that these searchers are going to be scouring just grew in size from seven zones to 11.