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Search Continues for AirAsia Crash Victims

Aired January 01, 2015 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOSH GOLDEN, CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER, EBERT DIGITAL: But he and I talked a lot more about technology than we did about movies, because he was a big Internet nerd. And I could help him more with his passion on that side.

ANA CABRERA, CNN ANCHOR: And now you can watch movies on the Internet.

Josh Golden, thanks so much for your time.

GOLDEN: Thank you.

CABRERA: And you can catch the acclaimed new film "Life Itself" Sunday, January 4, at 9:00 P.M. Eastern here on CNN.

Top of the hour. I'm Ana Cabrera. Thanks for joining us for CNN's special coverage of the search for AirAsia Flight 8501.

Today, a first, Indonesian authorities confirming the identity of one of the bodies pulled from the Java Sea, a woman, Hayati Lutfiah Hamid. Now, local media is saying she's a teacher. Her I.D. in fact was still attached to her body, along with an initialed necklace. She's among nine bodies recovered so far.

After a small break from bad weather, strong winds and heavy rains are again hampering the search for more bodies and more wreckage. The arrival of monsoonal storms and its unpredictable eruption of bad weather are really holding back the divers and their investigation of a so-called shadow on the ocean floor.

Without confirmation that it is the bulk of the airliner, officials say it could take a week at least to locate those so-called black boxes. The pingers helping to locate them go dead 25 days from now.

CNN's Andrew Stevens is at the new crisis center set up for family members at Surabaya, Indonesia's airport as the grim task of identifying bodies continue -- Andrew.

ANDREW STEVENS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Ana, an intensely frustrating day both for the searchers and for the families of the relatives so desperate now to see the remains of their loved ones and commit them to the ground and to seek some sort of closure.

Weather again proving a major obstacle over the search site, strong winds, driving rain and plus big seas really limiting the search operations today. The weather was coming through in bands, so there were some patches of clearer weather where rescuers or searchers could get into the area and look, but really not nearly long enough.

Divers, we're told, were grounded on the closest land area. They couldn't be ferried out to the ships and the ones who were already on the ships couldn't get into the water. The focus at the moment, apart from looking for bodies, of course, is to find this shadow, which the Indonesian aerial search saw a couple of days ago now underwater. They still haven't been table relocate it. They are not picking up any pings from black boxes or any locator devices, so they are still searching.

They need to get acoustic listening devices in the water, but that's proving tricky with the conditions. These conditions are expected to last perhaps up until Sunday and it is only now early on Friday morning. Meanwhile, here at the crisis center, the first body has been identified. It is of a teacher. Her name is Hayati Lutfiah Hamid.

And she was -- we understand her to be 49 years old. There was a simple ceremony here. Her body was handed over to her relatives, who then took her to her home village, where there was a private ceremony with friends and family, a simple grave, a mound covered with red flowers in remembrance. But for the rest of the families, it continues to be an agonizing wait -- Ana.

CABRERA: Andrew Stevens, thank you.

Now, anxious families have resigned themselves to the fact that AirAsia Flight 8501 did indeed crash somewhere in the Java Sea. Now many simply hope the bodies of their loved ones will be found.

Paula Hancocks tells us about the hospital that has the grim task of identifying these victims before they can be returned to their grieving families.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Sirens in the night announce their arrival. Victims of Flight 8501 on dry land and rushed into this hospital at Pangkalan Bun. The next morning, two more bodies arrive. Red Cross and hospital workers take them to a private wing to be prepared for the next stop, identification by distraught families.

The hospital director says he's here 24 hours a day to give the deceased the respect they deserve.

"Because they've been in the water some days", he tells me, "the bodies are swollen, but otherwise they're intact."

Patients look on somberly, their own ailments forgotten in the face of such tragedy. Coffins are being delivered to give dignity to those who lost their lives so suddenly.

(on camera): This hospital has never had to deal with a tragedy on this scale before. They have about two dozen caskets at the moment that are being built as we speak. The hospital director says they will have 162, one for every victim of this crash.

(voice-over): Final player for each soul, leaders of six different religions take their turn. The victim's religion may not be known but customs must still be observed.

"Their time on earth is over", says this pastor, "so many of our prayers are for the family. We ask God to receive their bodies and give the families strength."

One step closer to their final resting place.

So few victims have been found and treated, so many more still wait to be pulled from their watery graves.

Paula Hancocks, CNN, Pangkalan Bun, Indonesia.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CABRERA: Before it fell 30,000-some feet, Flight 8501 was apparently climbing. That's what a source tells Reuters, saying specifically the jet made a -- quote -- "unbelievably steep climb."

Now, this source came to this conclusion after apparently seeing radar data from the plane and here's more of what this source told Reuters -- and I quote -- "So far, the numbers taken by the radar are unbelievably high. This rate of climb is very high, too high. It appears to be beyond the performance envelope of the aircraft."

Now, CNN has not been able to independently verify this report, but with me now to discuss is the author of "Why Planes Crash," CNN safety analyst David Soucie.

OK, David, what do you make about this possible radar report? This pilot, we know, had some 20,000 hours experience of flying. Wouldn't he have known just how hard he could push this plane?

DAVID SOUCIE, CNN SAFETY ANALYST: Yes, but before we -- I would like to make sure people understand what climb vs. speed vs. angle of attack and all that stuff is. Just take a second.

CABRERA: OK.

SOUCIE: Climbing is when you pull the aircraft back, control and climb the aircraft such like that.

CABRERA: If you pull it back, though, usually it slows down.

SOUCIE: You pull it back, it changes the wings and you go up. OK?

The ascent is the resulting distance that you go up and the rate of ascent is how quickly you go from there to there. So those are all three things different. What they are saying here is it climbed beyond that. And so there's more to it than just pulling back, because if it went beyond the envelope, then it wouldn't have climbed as high as we thought. There's two things happening here.

There's the climb. And in that realm, it climbs too fast and air burbles over the top and then you end up with a stall and the aircraft can fall. That's what we're really talking about.

The ascent is something that happens around the aircraft as well as the climb, and that can be from the thunderstorm that has rapidly rising air and can actually lift the aircraft very quickly and that's that speed and -- I'm sorry -- go ahead.

CABRERA: Do you think that this kind of reinforces that weather probably played a big role in this crash?

SOUCIE: It does. It does. Yes. Yes.

I think just the climbing wouldn't answer that entire picture. We're using that information. But if it was a combination of climbing and rapidly rising air, that's when we would have some serious, serious turbulence that could damage the aircraft.

CABRERA: I want to add in one more factor. There's another report out there. "The Sydney Herald" this morning also obtained some radar data and reports also seeing this excessive climb or this excessive speed in climbing.

But in contrast this particular article also said the plane traveled at incredible low rates of descent. I won't to quote here what it says. "At least as baffling was the extremely low ground speed which was as low as 61 knots during the descent. This would suggest the plane was heading almost straight down." Do you agree?

SOUCIE: I do, because the relative airspeed of the aircraft, it could be going almost straight down at a rate of 600 knots, and still have a ground speed of only 64, because the relative air around the airplane as you're going down is what you're measuring with indicated airspeed, the airspeed according to the aircraft.

But if you measure the distance from where it started its descent until the time it ended its descent, that's what they are talking about how -- what the speed is, because it went from here to here, but at a steep angle. It's only going that far. So on the ground speed, it looks very, very low, but the airspeed, which we don't have in this report, could be very, very high.

CABRERA: Of course, that's going to impact the rate that it enters the water or hits the ground or where it ends up crashing.

SOUCIE: Exactly, 600,000 pounds traveling at almost the speed of sound, going straight into the water. That's why they refer to the water as concrete sometimes because it would have the same impact on the aircraft.

CABRERA: If that happened, again just a big if, what kind of debris field would you expect? What would the debris pieces look like? Is that consistent with what we're finding? SOUCIE: It's not consistent at all. And that's why I'm glad you

asked that second question, because I don't want to paint this horrid pictures for the families.

It is possible for that to happen. However, I believe that at the bottom somehow it was recovered or somehow during that descent it was recovered because there's very little debris and the debris we're finding would indicate that there's not a breakup, that it's just some things that have been taken out either after the fact by passengers or during the descent some things fell off the aircraft. That doesn't necessarily indicate there was a heavy, hard impact into the water at all.

CABRERA: Especially when we're learning this new information about the one victim they identified who was wearing jewelry still and apparently had her I.D. on her.

SOUCIE: Yes. Jewelry is not really used as an indicator too much because it can really -- it's structurally sound.

But when you look at the clothing, you know, and at that speed and if it really did hit directly at that speed, we wouldn't be seeing the bodies as we are now, which they said were intact. If it's a flat hit like this such as Air France 447, the bodies stay intact but the internal structure of the body is not intact, which is at most what we have here.

If it's truly an impact and collision like we had in Colorado Springs with the Boeing 337, in that case there was...

CABRERA: Everything is just obliterated.

(CROSSTALK)

SOUCIE: Yes, that's right.

CABRERA: All right. Well, David Soucie, thanks for the analysis. We appreciate it.

And just ahead, who will get the black boxes once and if they are found? What's the first piece of information they may provide?

Plus, the pilot who made a split-second decision and safely landed his U.S. Airways jet on the Hudson River talks to CNN about his theory on AirAsia's final moments.

And our experts weigh in on what the emergency slide tells us about how the flight crashed.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: We got word today about where the AirAsia jet black boxes will go once they're located and recovered.

Now, the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder will be taken to a lab in Jakarta, Indonesia, to be analyzed. This is according to the head of Indonesia's National Committee for Transportation Safety.

But is that the best choice?

Joining us to talk about it, Clive Irving, back with us, the author of the "Jumbo: The Making of the 747." Clive is also a contributor to The Daily Beast.

So, Clive, I know this is some new information we're getting. Is Indonesia's lab the best place, do you think, to analyze the AirAsia black box?

CLIVE IRVING, THE DAILY BEAST: No, It isn't. I don't think so at all.

CABRERA: Why?

IRVING: Well, I don't think they have the same technical resources as are required.

In the case of Air France 447, for example, it's a French-owned plane and it's a French airline and it happened in international waters over the Atlantic, so there was never much of a battle about who should investigate that and where the flight recorders should go. They went to the French investigation branch in Paris.

In this case, you have a Malaysian-owned airline. You have -- it's flying through Indonesian airspace. It's a French plane with American and French equipment on it. But the most thing to resolve is who are the most competent and technically best-equipped?

I don't want this to be a cultural slur about the Indonesians, because that would be ridiculous. But we do have to look at the technical competence. In that case, the nearest city with a laboratory which is fully equipped to handle this is Canberra in Australia. And they do have the equipment to properly analyze these flight recorders.

And once we get those flight recorders, they are the essential key to answering these questions that you have been asking today. And so it's important that it gets there fast. And I would be very surprised if it went to the Indonesians. I don't think that's a good idea at all.

CABRERA: Well, apparently, that's the plan at this point. So, does that then indicate that Indonesia is taking the lead on this investigation?

IRVING: Well, that's a good question, because we need to know that there -- I hope there is not going to be a turf battle over this. That would be really shaming, if that were to happen.

The Malaysian experience with Flight 370 has not been at all encouraging about the way their air -- aviation business is handled and we haven't -- and there's been in this case a very worrying scattershot release of information that's then retracted. There's not much sign of anyone having a firm hand of control in

the way that when you have an accident investigation in the United States, the NTSB takes charge. They are very disciplined about how much information they get.

And I have to remind us too that once the black box and the investigations start, it's incumbent on the people investigating to issue what's called a preliminary report to satisfy the immediate need for knowledge.

And you will get out of that black box enough key information about what happened. You will get a description of what happened in the last minutes or so of that flight. That's the most essential thing we have. We will want to get a picture of what happened. All that information is in that black box. That's the reason why it's very important it should get into the hands of people who are competent to do that work.

CABRERA: And like you said, you don't necessarily believe that Indonesia is the right place for it, but I know you have said in your article that you wrote for The Daily Beast that Indonesia does have a good reputation when it comes to investigating plane incidents.

IRVING: Yes, that's a different issue.

The resources necessary to deal with the black box is one issue. The other issue is, who is going to lead the investigation? From what I have seen of the investigations that they have carried out on the most recent air crash, they did a good job, almost a replica of what the NTSB would do. I think you have to separate these two things, the technical facilities.

It's not a question of competence, just technical facilities able to do this work, which I don't believe they have, and then the competence to lead the investigation, although they would invite -- I'm sure they have done this in the past -- they would invite the NTSB to take part in this investigation too because they have such a high reputation in the world and probably the Australians too, because they have taken over the search for Malaysia 370.

And they have done a very good job at cleaning up what was a very messy act at the beginning.

CABRERA: This incident is sort of capping off a year where we have had at least a few high-profile incidents, tragedies, mysteries, and it's leading to concerns about safety in general for this region.

And I know there's been a lot said about the fact that air travel is really skyrocketing in this part of the world and that there are all these discount airlines popping up because of the demand of travelers seemingly outweighs the supply of pilots and planes in this area. How big of a concern is safety right now in this part of the world?

IRVING: You have to remember that safety on the whole is amazing and that what we have built up over the 50 years or so of the jet age is we built an international system which requires the same standard to be met whatever nation, whatever culture, whatever continent the flights are being conducted in.

That's been an amazing success to reconcile and make consistent all the different elements that are involved in making the flying safe for not just the plane, not just the pilots, but the air traffic control, the maintenance, the support organizations.

So my concern is that having built up over 50 years this amazing level of consistency across the whole world that Asia is now presenting such a huge demand, pent-up demand from people who have never flown before, many of the passengers there are making their first flights on planes -- this is China and Southeast Asia -- that the demand for skills, skills in air crews, skills in air traffic controllers, skills in maintenance, is outstripping the supply.

That's only natural, because in fact Southeast Asia has got more planes on order, more new planes on order than the United States, North America and Europe combined, which shows you just how fast this business is outstripping the ability to support it. That's my concern about the safety regime, really.

CABRERA: Right, to be able to make sure these pilots have enough experience and training before they get behind the controls.

(CROSSTALK)

IRVING: Yes.

The whole food chain of supplying pilots. They have to begin -- they used to be supplied by air forces, which -- where they gained a great deal of confidence. Then they passed to airlines. Well, there are far fewer military pilots now and nothing like it to fly.

So, all these pilots have to begin by flying in the most rudimentary way on small planes and then gradually evolve in their training, get enough flying hours to qualify for the next level up. And so it takes time. You can't just hire somebody and put them in charge of a jetliner. It's a much more demanding...

CABRERA: All right, Clive Irving, thank you.

Up next, gathering the clues and then putting the pieces back together. We will take you to a crash lab to show you some potential clues there.

Plus, the mayor of Surabaya makes a surprising remark about what she's telling families is her message, the right one. That's coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CABRERA: This is CNN's special live coverage of the crash of AirAsia Flight 8501.

And we have heard how important those flight recorders or those black boxes are in determining what happened and why. But investigators also need to see the actual wreckage itself, the fuselage. That's because knowing how the plane crashed will provide some very important clues and that's just the beginning.

CNN's Stephanie Elam explains.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): To find out what brought down a plane --

MICHAEL BARR, AVIATION SAFETY EXPERT: You got to bite this at a small bite at a time.

ELAM: -- investigators look to the wreckage and not just the black boxes for clues.

BARR: I would never have all the parts, never. But the more parts I get, it's like a mosaic. The more bits I can put on the mosaic, the better the picture will be. The better the picture, the better I can come up with an understanding of what happened.

ELAM: But when a plane crashes into the water like AirAsia Flight 38501, that task is a more difficult endeavor.

BARR: Crashing on land is much easier because the parts stay where they landed. In the water, you're working with currents and winds, and so the pieces won't be where they had the initial impact. The deeper the water, the more difficult. We have other accidents that happened in shallow water, we got most of the pieces back. But deep water, we have a very, very hard time doing that.

ELAM: Take for example, Malaysia Air Flight 370. The missing 777 jet is believed by many to be somewhere at the bottom of the Indian Ocean. By examining other crashes, investigators can deduce what likely happened if the massive plane did crash into the water.

THOMAS ANTHONY, DIRECTOR, USC AVIATION SAFETY AND SECURITY PROGRAM: In this case, the primary energy of this wreckage was absorbed by the right-front cockpit. It has two jet engines. just like the Malaysian aircraft, but, in fact, it's 10,000 pounds versus the 777 which was 600,000 pounds, 60 times larger.

ELAM (on-camera): If it broke up, that debris field on the bottom of the sea floor would be massive.

ANTHONY: You're absolutely right.

ELAM: So this wing here, this is a wing that crashed into the water.

ANTHONY: What's important to us here is tracing the front leading edge of this right wing. It looks like it struck some object, but, in fact, this wing hit the water, the water being a very, very hard surface when you hit it fast.

ELAM: And so if you're talking about a 777 hitting the water, it would be immensely more noticeable.

ANTHONY: And that 777 would be moving at a much higher speed than this aircraft here. So therefore, the energy would be greater.

ELAM (voice-over): Yet, even with all the pieces investigators are able to put back together, if they don't recover the part of the plane that failed in flight, the cause of the crash may remain a mystery.

Stephanie Elam, CNN, Los Angeles.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CABRERA: Our thanks to Stephanie.

Now, just ahead, we will hear from Chesley Sullenberger. He's the pilot who landed a U.S. Airways jet on the Hudson River, saving everyone on board. Hear his theory on the decision the AirAsia pilots faced.

Plus, the mayor of Surabaya makes a surprising remark about what she is telling families. Hope for a miracle, she says. Is that the right message? We will discuss.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)