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King Abdullah Dead; Yemen's Government Falls to Houthi Rebels; No Word on Fate of Japanese Held by ISIS; Colorado Teen Who Sought to Join ISIS to be Sentenced Today; TSA Seizes Record Guns in Airports; Yemen in Chaos; What Will the NFL Do About Deflategate?

Aired January 23, 2015 - 11:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Upheaval in the Middle East, a crucial U.S. ally is dead, an entire government crumbles. Is America less safe today?

The happiest place on earth? Not so much right now. A measles outbreak linked to Disneyland in California. So what is fueling the comeback of a disease once declared eradicated?

And Tom Brady, he might be handsome, but the question today, was he too cute by half? And this question on "Deflate-gate," what if there is no proof? What happens then?

All right, happening now, Washington loses two critical allies as power shifts in the Middle East. In Saudi Arabia, it was the death of 90-year-old King Abdullah, hailed by some as a cautious reformer and essential partner in the U.S. fight against both al Qaeda and ISIS, although noted by others as a leader of an oppressive regime that beheads people and flogs writers. His more conservative brother, Salman, has already ascended to the throne.

Meanwhile, neighboring Yemen is in chaos after its pro-U.S. president and prime minister resigned. Shiite Houthi rebels are now in control of the capital and the United States is starting to withdraw embassy staff because of safety concerns.

And the deadline passed with no word on the fate of two Japanese men held by ISIS on a $200 million ransom demand. A spokesman for the terror group tells a Japanese broadcaster that ISIS will soon release a statement about the hostages.

We're looking closely at all of these major developments today. I want to bring in our chief national security correspondent, Jim Sciutto. And, Jim, Saudi Arabia is a close ally of the United States, a complicated alley but a close one, a key friend in the battle against terror.

How concerned is the United States now about this transition of power, the death of the king there?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: They're not hugely concerned because, one, the health of King Abdullah, the late King Abdullah, had been in question for some time. The Saudis had a succession plan in place for some time. And you see in that succession plan consistently -- consistency, rather.

Salman, ideologically consistent with his predecessor, now he's put in (inaudible) as the crown prince, so the next in line, another son of the founder of Saudi Arabia. So you see -- you will likely see a continuation of the policies that we saw under King Abdullah, which -- who, by Saudi standards, one, a very close ally of the U.S. in the war on terror, but also by Saudi standards a relative reformer.

As you know, this is still a country that beheads people. It has flogged a blogger simply for starting a debate about extremism online. It's got a long way to go, but by Saudi standards, he's moved in the right direction. I think U.S. officials expect that to continue.

BERMAN: Yeah. He's a key friend of the United States when it comes to both security and a key influence when it comes to the economy as well. Obviously Saudi Arabia with great control over world oil prices.

Jim Sciutto, thanks so much for being with us.

I want to turn now to the disturbing new developments in neighboring Yemen. The U.S.-backed government in Yemen has collapsed, and now the United States is pulling more embassy staff out of that country.

Our senior international correspondent Nick Paton Walsh has just left the capital of Yemen, Sanaa. Nick, give us a sense of the latest. Let me know what it was like there in your final moments. Did you get a sense that that country was slipping into just pure chaos?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Interesting to see how the Houthies, frankly, took control. They have had control of the streets for months, but it was clear once the president, prime minister, and cabinet wanted out that we were going to be heading into much more of sort of a spiral towards the unknown.

The streets were pretty calm. We heard intermittent sounds of gunfire occasionally, fireworks, though, too. And on our drive out through the airport came across four or five polite, reasonably calm Houthi checkpoints.

The Houthi militiamen there, young a lot of them, a lot of them rural too, and that's half of the strength, many say, of the Houthi movement, is fundamentally harnessing the frustrations of sort of the Shia rural poor to a degree.

The airport itself was reasonably calm too, although they did appear to be looking for some Yemenis, perhaps former regime members.

The issue really, John, now is what next? It was a bit of a high- stakes gamble by the president once his cabinet and prime minister left their jobs to also quit too, and I think in the words of one of his ministers a few days earlier, naming and shaming the deal that was being done with the Houthies for what it really was, which was pretty much the dissolving and weakening of his powers and giving the Houthies kind of what they want, not letting the Houthies run the government without actually having to own it, so to speak.

So we're in for a confusing days ahead. The parliament may meet. The speaker under the constitution, I believe, is technically the next in line for acting president, but what do Houthies wish to honor of that is very much the street that's dictating Yemen's politics at the moment.

There are talks of the cities in the east or the south seceding, refusing to recognize the Houthi government. They're immediately contradicted, often as soon as you hear them, but it's a very chaotic situation, one of course that will have U.S. diplomatic community slightly on edge, those who remain there, and of course one which will be deeply troubling it neighbor, Saudi Arabia.

They see, I think, the hand of Iran there. And I have to say when you see how fast the Houthies have got their act together in the past few months, there has to be somebody presumably helping them become quite so effective.

John?

BERMAN: Nick, do you have a sense of what the current status of U.S. influence is inside Yemen, and how well will the United States pursue its battle against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in that country now that there's been this shift in power?

PATON WALSH: I think if you look at how the U.S. functions in states where there's sort of only half compliance -- I mean, Yemen, I think, is as helpful as it can be but doesn't really have the infrastructure and institutions to throw that much behind the U.S. -- the U.S. tries to operate more or less independently or at least gather information without necessarily being entirely reliant on the host country.

So they will probably carry on much of the counterterror surveillance, human intelligence gathering, I would imagine, as best as they can, given the swirling chaos but the reduction, I'm sure, in embassy staff is going to take some sort of toll as I'm sure would be a degree of restrictions on movements they'll have to undertake if this situation becomes increasingly unstable.

And then of course there's the broader issues of what do the Houthies make of all of this. They are not overly anti-American, frankly, when you speak to them, talk to them. They're actually quite polite and pleasant.

But one of their slogans is death to America, so it is going to be a complicated relationship for the U.S. to fathom if they decide they have to deal with the Houthies because the Houthies eventually decide they actually want to run Yemen rather than just being the main dominant influence on the streets.

And I think that period of confusion too, many as I left were telling me, will give a window for al Qaeda to attack, to grow, and of course a pause in counterterrorism operations is in itself giving the enemy a hand for (inaudible).

John?

BERMAN: All right, Nick Paton Walsh for us in Beirut, having just left Yemen, thanks so much, Nick.

@THIS HOUR, the lives of two men hang in the balance. More than 11 hours have passed since the deadline set by ISIS to execute two kidnapped Japanese citizens. ISIS has asked Japan to pay $200 million in ransom.

Atika Shubert joins me now. Atika, what is the status at this point of negotiations? Are there negotiations?

ATIKA SHUBERT, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We don't know if there are negotiations. As far as we know, the Japanese government has said that they have tried to make contact with ISIS through intermediaries such as Jordan, but so far they have not had any success.

Having said that, the national broadcaster, NHK, was apparently able to speak to a spokesperson or someone representing ISIS saying that a message would be broadcast soon.

Now, it's been many hours since that message from ISIS was received, but we haven't seen any video, anything else come out yet. And as you can imagine, it's an agonizing wait for the families of both men.

And at the moment the Japanese government says they are doing everything they can, but they have had no confirmed contact with ISIS so far.

BERMAN: And one of these men, I understand, Atika, has a newborn child at home?

SHUBERT: That's right. Kenji Goto is a very well-known Japanese journalist covering the Middle East, and he left to cover Syria when his baby was just a few weeks old. That's something that his mother said publicly yesterday in a very tearful plea to have him released.

His other companion in this was Haruna Yukawa, and he was sort of acting as a security guard for him during this trip. Both men have been held hostage now for a number of months by ISIS, and as you can imagine, it's an agonizing wait for the family as they wait to see whether or not ISIS will spare their lives.

BERMAN: All right, Atika Shubert for us. We again are awaiting word on the fate of these two men, word, we hope, of their safety. Atika, thanks so much.

Other stories making headlines today, a Colorado teenager will face sentencing after pleading guilty to trying to join ISIS. Shannon Maureen Connelly told CNN that her name is now Amatullah, which means "servant of Allah." The 19-year-old nursing aide was arrested last year after trying to board a flight to Turkey to meet and marry a ISIS fighter she met online.

Her parents say their daughter was a victim of the jihadist group and they worry about other impressionable young other impressionable young Americans.

Connelly faces a maximum of five years in prison and a $250,000 fine.

Happening this hour, the next step in the new era of U.S.-Cuba relations. A high-level State Department official is talking about the progress made in historic talks this week in Havana. (Inaudible) welcomed seven Cuban dissidents to the U.S. chief of missions residence for a meeting, but Cuban diplomats slammed the United States over the issues of human rights, using Ferguson, New York, and Guantanamo Bay as examples.

Activists have said Cuba is one of the worst offenders in the world when it comes to human rights.

The number of people trying to take loaded guns on U.S. flights is rising. TSA reports that officers recovered -- discovered a record 2,200 firearms in travelers' carry-on bags last year. More than 80 percent of those guns were loaded. You're looking at pictures right now of actual firearms recovered.

The passengers who were caught face thousands of dollars in fines. You can bring unloaded firearms onto planes but only onto checked bags that go in the belly of a plane.

In just a few minutes, the team co-captains of the New England Patriots will face the media, and they no doubt will have to take questions about "Deflate-gate." What can they tell us about the situation right now, the air reportedly missing from 11 Patriots' footballs in Sunday night's AFC championship game against the Colts?

The quarterback, Tom Brady, the coach, Bill Belichick, they didn't have any answers really. The NFL only says it is still investigating. If course Tom Brady said they hadn't spoken to him yet as of yesterday.

In just a few minutes, we'll speak to a couple of former players, including one former teammate of Tom Brady, to find out what they think should happen and exactly who is to blame.

Coming up, a key U.S. ally crumbles. How the turmoil in Yemen goes far beyond its borders,

And Mitt Romney, his key aides are meeting today to talk about what exactly? Is the campaign three-peat on? Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: The political chaos in Yemen could have serious consequences for the United States. The U.S. is already reducing its personnel in that country after the fall of the Yemeni government. The embassy still open, technically, but officials say they will re-assess the situation as things on the ground change and they are changing rapidly.

Let's bring in CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank and CNN global affairs analyst Lieutenant Colonel James Reese. Paul, let me start with you. The government in Yemen has crumbled. Gone away. The president is gone. Prime minister gone. The entire cabinet has resigned. United States depends or has depended on Yemen for years as the United States has battled al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, considered the most dangerous arm now currently of al Qaeda. So how will this change the U.S. ability to fight al Qaeda in that country?

PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, the administration's strategy is in tatters because they depended on president Hadi, now former President Hadi, to a significant very degree and the counterterrorism operations in Yemen, he was supportive of it, drone strikes, and there was intelligence sharing between the two governments. Now there's a big power vacuum, perhaps the Houthis will take over. There will basically be a Shia government perhaps and that would be a recruitment windfall for al Qaeda in Yemen because a lot of these Sunni tribals in the heartland of the country hate the Shia and they could be recruited by AQAP in a big way in the future.

BERMAN: What about drone strikes? Do you hit pause on drone strikes while you're waiting to see how things settle down there?

CRUICKSHANK: Well that's going to be a big, big question. You know, will the United States carry on these drone strikes given all of this political uncertainty at the moment? If they have key targets, you know, for example, the leader (INAUDIBLE) or the chief bomb make (INAUDIBLE), I'm sure they would still pull the trigger. But there may be some sort of thinking about whether they should pull the trigger on some of the other targets.

BERMAN: And Colonel Reese, you know, you've been stationed all around the world. What if you are an American right now? What if you are a member of the U.S. embassy staff? What if you are one of the military members there now guarding the people in that staff? How nervous are you as you watch this government crumble around you?

LT. COL. JAMES REESE (RET.), CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Right now, they're at a minute by minute decision making cycle with the ambassador, the regional security officer, and the senior military advisor on the ground. I will also tell you, if I'm someone there on the ground pulling security, helping the embassy, with the carrier group that's out there, all the assets we have prepared to go in, I feel okay. And I'm not looking at it as desperate as it is right now that a lot of people are talking about.

BERMAN: And, Colonel, along those same lines, you know, Saudi Arabia has long been a nation where there's been a great deal of partnership between the U.S. and the U.S. military and the Saudis and the Saudi military. There has been a transition of power in that country. Frankly, a very big one when you think about it, because King Abdullah, more or less, has run that country for 20 years and now his brother, King Salman, is now in charge. How does this complicate the very close working relationship that these two countries have?

REESE: John, it's seamless. The Saudis do this very well. They've been doing it a long time with the succession plan and it's seamless. All of the princes throughout the family have great relationships with the government and the military in the United States. It's a seamless transition, the way I see it.

BERMAN: Paul, around the world, because you talk to people all over the Islamic world, how is the United States' relationship with Saudi Arabia viewed? Because what you have here is a monarchy. Some people say a repressive monarchy. So is this relationship that the U.S. has with Saudis looked upon fondly by other Muslims in other countries?

CRUICKSHANK: I mean, for example, there's been a lot of criticism from these extremists of this relationship, particularly of the Saudi royal family. ISIS has made a lot of propaganda out of this. They sort of are saying that the Saudis are in league with the infidel Americans, and that's helped their recruitment in the region. ISIS has said that Saudi Arabia is one of their very big targets. A lot of Saudis have joined this group in Syria and Iraq. The Saudis are very worried now about these people coming back. We've seen a few terrorist plots and attacks in the kingdom in recent months linked backed to ISIS. That's going to be one of the big security challenges as we move forward.

BERMAN: We're awaiting word on the fate of these two Japanese hostages believed to be held by ISIS. ISIS asking for $200 million ransom. What do you think is going on right now?

CRUICKSHANK: We don't know. We don't know if the Japanese are trying to reach out through intermediaries to try to get some contact with the ISIS leadership. It's been reported so far there's no contact yet been established. The prospects are terrible for these hostages. Time and time again, ISIS has beheaded, executed, killed hostages and your heart goes out to the families in this situation.

BERMAN: Indeed. And Colonel, you talk about relative levels of barbarism and it almost seems senseless, because you know, murder is murder no matter how you look at it and this group is guilty of a large number of murders and killing a large number of hostages here. But you would think that their image around the world, even people who would be somewhat sympathetic to them would be severely hurt by these types of actions that they are threatening right now.

REESE: You would think that, but this propaganda wheel that ISIS has has a strange appeal to the younger generation, and I'm just not sure why it's doing that at times. Here's the other thing I tell you, you know, right now ISIS has some financial problems. You know, with the dropping of oil, they were selling oil for $50 a barrel when it was at $75. Now that's dropped for them almost in half and even more so the black market is not even moving as fast. This might be an opportunity that the Japanese do continue because ISIS might need the money.

BERMAN: You think it's a financial play? You think that ISIS is doing this to make a few bucks?

REESE: There's no question. They've done this every time. There's already been precedent set by other countries that have paid money to get people out of ISIS hands. It's a financial gain for them to do this. They have to fund their army.

BERMAN: As you have noted, a dangerous precedent many in the security community think, as well. Paul Cruickshank, Colonel Reese, thanks so much for being with us. I appreciate it.

There is a whole lot of Deflate-gate deflecting going on. First, Patriots' coach Bill Belichick says he has no explanation, not at all, for how those footballs were underinflated. Tom Brady says he didn't alter the footballs. So who did? Did anyone? And what if no one ever proves anything? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: What is the NFL going to do about Deflate-gate and when will it do it? We have now heard from coach Bill Belichick, we've now heard from the quarterback Tom Brady. Right now, the other team co- captains are speaking and answering questions about the scandal that has cast something of a shadow over the Super Bowl. NFL officials say they are investigating, but really that's it. As of yesterday, Tom Brady said no one from the league had even contacted him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TOM BRADY, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS QUARTERBACK: I have no knowledge of anything. I have no knowledge of any wrongdoing -

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: -- nobody did anything?

BRADY: Yeah, I'm very comfortable saying that. I'm very comfortable saying that nobody did it -- as far as I know. I don't know everything. I also understand that I was in a locker room preparing for a game and I don't know what happened over the course of the process with the footballs.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: We have a couple men with us who played the game. Tim Green was an offensive end with the Atlanta Falcons and now a best-selling author of many books. His latest is called "First Team." We also have former Patriot tight end Jermaine Wiggins. He's now an NFL analyst and radio host.

Tim, I want to start with you because you are also a lawyer, among other many things. You have said that the NFL does need to punish the Patriots. My question to you is, what if they don't ever find any proof as to who took the air out of the footballs, if someone did? What if they can't find that smoking gun? Because is under-inflated the same thing as deflated?

TIM GREEN, BEST-SELLING AUTHOR, ATTORNEY: I think they'll have to meet out some kind of punishment just because the league wants to be consistent. They want to be measured. They're going to have to do something. I think if you look at the precedent of Bountygate with the New Orleans Saints - which by the way, these are two very different things. A lot of people are comparing what the Saints did with the Bountygate where players were being offered cash to hurt other players -- That's morally repugnant. This really isn't. This is kind of a different animal.

This reminds me of some of the things I used to see people do. They would spray silicone on their jerseys so people couldn't grab them, they'd use cleats that were a little bit longer than normal. Everyone always is looking for an edge, but when the league finds out that people are doing it, they have to take measures. They have to stop that behavior and eliminate it. They are going to hand out a punishment. It will be maybe to the Patriots in general. They may never find out exactly who did it. But mark my words, someone did it. Someone knows, even though we may never find out.

BERMAN: You were talking about people comparing this, Tim, to what happened with the New Orleans Saints. Troy Aikman is someone who has been making that comparison. Troy Aikman says the punishment in this case should be even worse. Let's listen to what the former Dallas quarterback said.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

TROY AIKMAN, FORMER DALLAS COWBOYS QUARTERBACK: It's obvious that Tom Brady had something to do with this. For the balls to have been deflated, that doesn't happen unless the quarterback wants that to happen. I can assure you of that.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

BERMAN: That was Troy Aikman who, again, Jermaine, also went on to say that the punishment should be worse - Go ahead, Tim. you want to get in? Go ahead.

GREEN: I was going to say. Troy is awesome, great player, but I couldn't disagree with him more. This is something that doesn't affect somebody's health and well-being. Bountygate really did. That's morally repugnant. This is not.

BERMAN: But there are a lot of people - Hang on, I want to bring you in, Jermaine, but there are people, Tim, who say there are moral issues with cheating, as well, if that's what the Patriots did. And again, you are dealing with the issue of relativism here, what is worse on the scale of morality, we'll leave that to the NFL to decide.

But Jermaine, you know, Tom Brady said something yesterday that was interesting. He said the perfect football for him is at 12.5 PSI. That's where it is perfect for him. He then went on to say that he has no way of knowing how much pressure was in the balls when he was playing with them in that game. He knows enough to know that 12.5 PSI is perfect, but he doesn't know enough to know whether there was air in them or not? Is that believable?

JERMAINE WIGGINS, FORMER NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS PLAYER: Yes, that's believable. That's 100 percent believable. Because when you're in the heat of the battle, you're in the game, you're focusing on the defense trying to figure out okay, where do I need to go with this football, where is the soft spot? Brady is thinking of so many different things. He's not thinking about is it 12.5 PSI in this football? Is it 11.5? He's worried about making sure he catches the ball from the snap, trying to get it to the right receiver. Oh, and by the way, there are 300-pound men who are trying to rip his head off every single snap on the defensive line. He's not concerning himself with that. That's 100 percent believable.

Let me tell you something about Tom Brady. He's been in this league for a long time. He's a guy that we know. We respect him here. He's never come out and lied to us before. For him to go out there and say that he had nothing to do with this altering the footballs, he's putting himself on a ledge and basically saying, I didn't have anything to do with this.