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ISIS Deadline for Swap Just Minutes Away; Murder Trial Begins This Hour for NFL Star

Aired January 29, 2015 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: NEWSROOM starts now.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

COSTELLO: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me. We begin with breaking news.

Time is running out. An ISIS deadline to release a convicted terrorist is up in just a matter of minutes.

This is the woman terrorists say they want freed from a prison in Jordan. She was sentenced to death in 2006 for her role in a deadly string of hotel attacks that killed at least 57 people. Jordan's government says it is willing to release her if ISIS frees a pilot captured last month while conducting coalition airstrikes. Now this pilot's fighter jet crashed while flying over Syria.

But a big question remains. Is this pilot actually alive? Jordan's Foreign minister telling CNN his government has requested proof of life from ISIS but so far has not received it.

Also facing an uncertain fate, another hostage. Japanese journalist Kenji Goto. It's not clear if ISIS will spare his life if Jordan meets the demands.

We're following the latest developments with our team of experts. CNN's Will Ripley live in Tokyo, Jomana Karadsheh is in Amman, Jordan. At the Pentagon, CNN's Barbara Starr. And in Washington CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen.

I want to start with you first, Will. Do we have any indication that this exchange will actually happen?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, this news, Carol, just coming out of Jordan that they have still yet to receive proof of life is very discouraging for government officials here in Tokyo because according to the latest ISIS propaganda message, the condition for Kenji Goto's survival is a prisoner exchange at the border between Syria and southern Turkey in less than 30 minutes from now.

ISIS demanding that Sajida al-Rishawi be handed over in exchange for Goto's life. And while this new propaganda message doesn't specifically threaten Goto's life if this deal doesn't go down, it does threaten the life of the Jordanian pilot.

And given, Carol, that we're dealing with ISIS, a group that we have covered and we know of their brutality, their unpredictability, this is a very tense time here. There of course has been hope that Kenji Goto will make it out of this OK, but it's all -- it all depends on what happens with ISIS. And we just don't know right now.

COSTELLO: So, Jomana, still no proof of life from ISIS?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Still no proof of life, Carol, according to the Jordanian government a short time ago. We're hearing from the government spokesman here talking to state media saying that Jordan is ready, and it's still willing, as it announced yesterday, to release Sajida al-Rishawi, but what they're saying is that they will only do this on two conditions.

One, they want that proof of life. They have not received that yet, saying that they have asked for it. We've heard this from the Jordanian government saying for several weeks now in their indirect negotiations with ISIS they've been asking for proof of life that they have not received.

The other issue here, Carol, is they're saying that they are willing to release her but only in exchange for the captured pilot Mu'ath al- Kaseasbeh. Now this really is not the demand that ISIS has put out there. They said that they would kill him if the exchange between Sajida al-Rishawi and Kenji Goto does not happen.

So really here Jordan is putting out these terms and conditions but it does not really fulfill what ISIS is asking for so a very tough situation here. And as you mentioned, as the clock is ticking, very tense situation in Jordan. A lot of people waiting to see how this is going to end.

COSTELLO: Peter, it's strange. I mean, ISIS says Kenji Goto's voice on audiotape but no proof of life from this pilot. Why would that be?

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, I don't know. But I mean, it's interesting to me, the audiotape which is -- you know, there was some speculation, I think ill-informed, that this was not Kenji Goto, and you know, it's very easy to make a voice analysis that matches to the voice and clearly the Japanese government is convinced that this is him.

I think that, you know, ISIS may have lost whatever that location was, whether it was in the desert or in a studio, may have security concerns about a videotape and audio is basically it's harder to, you know, make any kind of intelligence clues from an audiotape. So it may go to the fact that they're under pressure, that they have released it this way without the kind of production, that is we've seen associated with other tapes.

But, you know, why they went to audio isn't clear. But that is sometimes an indication that a terrorist group has lost its ability to have a sophisticated propaganda machine for one reason or another. COSTELLO: So, Peter, what you're saying, the reason that ISIS is not

offering Jordan proof of life is because it's too dangerous for ISIS to do so?

BERGEN: Well, I just don't know. But I mean, I'm focusing on the audio portion of this. It -- you know, it is strange that we're not seeing videos. And there may be a reason for that related to the location that they had may not be something that they can use again. Whether that was in a studio as some people have speculated, whether that was outside, and I think it may go to the pressure that they're under.

I mean, we've heard from CENTCOM that 6,000 ISIS fighters have been killed in strikes in the last six months. So that's about 200 a week since the campaign began. We've heard from CENTCOM's commander, General Lloyd Austin that they're having a manpower issue. So this audiotape may be an indicator that the group is under more pressure than we perhaps have assumed so far.

COSTELLO: OK. Barbara, it's also interesting in a macabre kind of way the way ISIS wants Jordan to -- you know, to exchange prisoners, right? They want it at the Syrian-Turkish border at sunset. So if that really happens, what would exactly that look like?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think one of the key questions there is exactly who the Jordanians may have been talking to in ISIS or what third parties they're discussing these negotiations with.

The arrangement typically in these kinds of matters are very precise. Who shows up, where they show up, what time, the proof of life exchanged ahead of time and the procedures. You'll remember in the exchange for Beau Bergdahl, that happened on very short notice in terms of the location. U.S. Special Forces were able to fly there very quickly, but it had been worked out. There were security procedures in place. Very quietly the deal had been cooked.

So whether the deal is exactly cooked right now remains to be seen. One of the keys is this female prisoner is going to have to come all the way from Jordan if this is going to happen, into this border region between northern Syria and Turkey. No indication that she's left Jordan yet, that she's been transferred in any way. These are all the things, all the signs that people are looking for -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Jomana, if this deal falls through, how will the people of Jordan react? Because they're not exactly thrilled that Jordan's involved in this fight anyway, right?

KARADSHEH: There is a difference of opinion here, Carol. First of all, we have to look at the family of Mu'ath al-Kaseasbeh. He comes from an influential tribe in Jordan. The tribes are important in their support for the monarchy here. So there is a level of anger amongst his tribes members, his direct family, blaming the government for this, saying that the government has not done enough.

But there are other Jordanians, Carol, who say that he is the soldier end of the day and soldiers sign up to serve their country and they do take these kinds of risks. But, of course, this whole situation as you mentioned has really ignited this discussion in Jordan. Should this country have joined the U.S.-led coalition in the fight against ISIS or not? Some believe that this is not Jordan's fight, they should not have taken part in these airstrikes and Jordan would not have been in this position if it had stayed out of it.

COSTELLO: And, Will, I know Kenji Goto is part of the negotiations, but the Japanese government or military is not directly involved, right?

RIPLEY: Well, they're involved in the sense that they have a special envoy on the ground in Amman who has been intimately involved in the discussions but, yes, in the end this is Jordan's decision. It is their prisoner. It is their exchange and it is their citizen who is also in grave danger at the hands of ISIS, but Japan does have some leverage in the region. They, you know, as you know, recently pledged $200 million in humanitarian aid.

Some of that money, presumably, would go to help the Iraqi and Syrian refugees, a large number of them who are in Jordan. And so Japan certainly is at the table, but in the end it is the king of Jordan who must make the call whether or not to move forward with this and that is still an unanswered question right now.

COSTELLO: Just how painful for Kenji Goto's family.

Peter, when you sit back and you take a look at this from afar and put everything together, does it tell you anything about the strength of ISIS?

BERGEN: Well, I mean, one thing that I think is very interesting building off something that Barbara said is that who is the interlocutor on the Jordanian side with ISIS? Because as far as I can tell, this seems to be the first time that a -- you know, a government has had direct negotiations with ISIS. We've seen in the past, for instance, Theo Curtis was an American journalist who was taken by the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, the Nusra Front. And we know that the Qatari government got involved in negotiations.

And, you know, paradoxically, Carol, you know, negotiating with al Qaeda in Syria turns out to be easier than dealing with ISIS. So hitherto we haven't had a direct line of communication with ISIS through a -- you know, through a legitimate government. And you know, that's good potentially because there are other hostages being held. We have an American female, a 26-year-old aid worker who's been held by ISIS, by the same people who are holding -- Mr. Goto.

We also have a British citizen being held. And we have others potentially. So to me in the long term this may be a good sign that we have some kind of avenue of communication into this group because of these other hostages as well.

COSTELLO: And, Barbara, as far as the wider war against ISIS, are there indications because of all that's happening right now that the U.S. airstrikes might be effective after all? STARR: Well, I mean, certainly they're effective on the ground where

they happen. We have seen in the last couple of days that northern Syrian city of Kobani now essentially back in Kurdish hands. The city virtually destroyed, but back in Kurdish hands. ISIS pretty much driven out of there.

We have seen areas where ISIS has had some problems. They have not been able to hold on to all of the territory. There is a sense, if you will, that they are having trouble governing delivering on the promises that they made to the people where they are so they're resorting to more terror to hold on to all of this. The next big challenge is Iraq's second largest city, Mosul. The Iraqi forces along with U.S. advisers are getting readied. We've seen a lot of action up in Mosul.

They're going to try and retake Mosul from ISIS. That is the big get, if you will, to put, you know, a serious crimp in ISIS' capability. All of that said, the head of U.S. Special Forces this week said that ISIS is still a recruiting powerhouse, that they are able to recruit foreign fighters to come to this battlefield in what he called a staggering rate.

So while people are saying that the airstrikes are having an effect, the real question, I suppose, is what is the effect on ISIS as a terrorist organization? They may not be able to hold on to territory forever, but is this going to put them down and out? And right now there is perhaps very little indication of that.

COSTELLO: All right. I'm going to have to leave it there.

Barbara Starr, Peter Bergen, Jomana Karadsheh, Will Ripley, thanks to all of you.

That deadline fast approaching. Just about 20 minutes to go. Will we see a prisoner exchange? We just don't know. I'll keep you posted.

Also to come in the NEWSROOM, from the locker room to the courtroom, an NFL star in handcuffs and now on trial.

CNN's Alexandra Field and the murder case against Aaron Hernandez.

ALEXANDRA FIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol. Shortly we will hear the opening statements from the prosecution followed by the defense, and then the first witnesses will be called to testify.

We'll talk about who we could hear from today coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COSTELLO: Right now, another huge story unfolding. A murder trial kicks off for a man who made millions of dollars in the NFL, and he made millions of football fans cheer, but this will focus on the dark side of Aaron Hernandez -- a star player with one of the NFL's most dominant teams. In what has been a series of bombshell allegations, he's charged with the cold blooded murder of three people and the first case is going to trial right now.

CNN's Susan Candiotti sets the stage.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SUSAN CANDIOTTI, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For Aaron Hernandez, the opposing team takes the field first, with prosecutors attempting to prove he is a killer beyond a reasonable doubt, alleging he orchestrated the execution-style murder of Odin Lloyd.

If his former bosses, team owner Bill Kraft and Coach Bill Belichick take the stand, they're expected to testify about their conversations with their one-time superstar. Just days after the bullet-riddled body of semi-pro player Lloyd is found. A law enforcement source says both Kraft and Belichick spoke face to face with Hernandez, Kraft alleging Hernandez flat-out denies he had anything to do with Lloyd's murder.

A source says Hernandez also tells Belichick the same thing. He wasn't there.

As the Patriots get ready for the Super Bowl, former teammates still trying to make sense of it.

MATTHEW SLATER, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS WIDE RECEIVER: A lot of people definitely affected by that situation. So, they're all in my prayers.

CANDIOTTI: At first, it seems there's a mountain of circumstantial evidence against the star tight end who has pleaded not guilty. Eighteen months later, the case isn't the same.

MICHAEL MCCANN, UNIVERSITY OF NH SPORTS LAW INSTITUTE: The universe of damning evidence has shrunk.

CANDIOTTI: Shrunk, thanks to a defense team scoring some victories. Arguably the biggest -- a text message from Lloyd to his sister about who he was with, sent minutes before Lloyd was killed. Lloyd writes, "NFL, just so you know."

A judge ruling it's inadmissible. Not enough proof Lloyd thought he was going to die.

Yet, prosecutors say they have surveillance videos of the victim getting into a car with Hernandez and co-defendants Earnest Wallace and Carlos Ortiz, who have also pleaded not guilty to murder. Video of that same car driving into an industrial park.

And later, Hernandez back home, less than a mile away, holding what prosecutors say is the alleged murder weapon. But, it was never found.

MCCANN: There is no murder weapon. Or a witness that's credible would testify that Aaron Hernandez did it. There is no such witness. It just isn't the slam-dunk case it seemed to be.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

COSTELLO: All right. Let's head to the courthouse and Alexandra Field.

What's happening inside the courthouse right now?

ALEXANDRA FIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Carol.

This is all about to get started. We have seen the arrival of family members. Right now, we just saw Aaron Hernandez's mother, his brother arrive to the courthouse. Before that, his fiance arrived here.

We know that when court gets underway the jury will have to be sworn in and then they can proceed to opening arguments. We're hearing from our own Susan Candiotti who is inside the courtroom that the prosecution will be limited to 45 minutes for their opening statements. The defense has requested 30 minutes for their opening statement. They have been given that by the judge.

Susan is telling us that the prosecution is saying us that one of the first witnesses that they could call to testify is Odin Lloyd's mother.

COSTELLO: I would assume it's going to be a packed courthouse because there's high interest in this case?

FIELD: Carol, timing is everything. Interest couldn't be higher right now. You've got the patriots who are, of course, off to the Super Bowl right now. The last time the Patriots were in the Super Bowl, Aaron Hernandez scored the team's last touchdown.

I mean, this is all coming together at a time where people just can't take their eyes off of this case. Look, the Patriots severed ties with Aaron Hernandez a long time ago, after he was arrested and charged in this case. But, certainly, he's a figure who looms very large in this part of the country.

And the interest magnifies here, given some of the people who we could see called to testify in this case. We're talking about Bill Belichick, Bob Kraft. These are huge figures in this part of the country and a lot of people are keenly interested in what they could say about private conversations that they had with Aaron Hernandez before he was arrested, Carol.

COSTELLO: All right. Alexandra Field, we'll get back to you. Thanks so much. Te man who sits at that defendant's table will not look like the

person most are familiar with. Jurors will not see Aaron Hernandez wearing a New England Patriots jersey, they won't see him with his shirt off. Instead, he'll look like every other member of his legal team.

Let's talk about that and more with CNN legal analyst Paul Callan, and Anne Bremner, a criminal defense attorney and former prosecutor.

Welcome to you both.

PAUL CALLAN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning.

COSTELLO: Good morning. So, let's --

ANNE BREMNER, CRIMINAL DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Good morning.

COSTELLO: Good morning.

Let's talk first about the jury, 13 women, five men, including the alternates. Some experts say women are more likely to go easy on a charming man, a handsome man, so cue the picture. Example, jurors will not see the tattooed Aaron Hernandez, they'll see -- but they'll see an ex-NFL superstar dressed in a suit, he'll be handsome, maybe he'll be smiling.

Will that make a difference, Paul, to the women on the jury?

CALLAN: I don't think it will and, frankly, I think we've gotten a little more sophisticated now about how women deal with sports heroes and men. You know, back in the old days, people would stereotype women and say they would handle a case in a certain way. I don't think it applies so much anymore.

I do think one thing is apparent. Men are more enamored of sports heroes. They've become god-like figures to men. I think women are kind of more realistic about it. So, he's going to get the benefit of celebrity status with women. I don't think he's going to be viewed as sort of a god-like sports figure that sometimes men view football players or any other players.

COSTELLO: But, Anne, jurors will see this handsome, charming man. And as the trial goes on, there's no motive. Won't they wonder about that?

BREMNER: Well, I was just going to say, don't ask me about women and charming men, but the fact is, you know, the Zimmerman jury was all women, six women and they acquitted him. We are the gentler gender in a lot of ways.

I agree with Paul, we've come a long way in terms of the stereotypical considerations. That having been said, though, he's charming. He seems not to have any kind of guilt. He's somebody that's very high profile.

I think that woman jurors oftentimes can be more favorable to a defendant in this kind of a case. With respect to motive, that's a big deal in this case. There is no motive. I mean, maybe he thought that there was some chill in the people we didn't know. Other than that, what is the motive?

The prosecutor doesn't have to prove motive, we know that, with you it's a tough sell that he would throw away $40 million, five-year contract, brand new baby and family -- everything in the world for something like this.

COSTELLO: I -- well, some say his fiance knows more than she's saying. She may well testify and she has to testify because they're not married.

BREMNER: Right.

COSTELLO: She doesn't have spousal privilege. So -- but unless this fiance gets up on that stand and says something that makes the jurors say, hey, that's why he might have murdered Odin Lloyd.

BREMNER: Right.

COSTELLO: Or you did hide the murder weapon, that's kind of nebulous too, isn't it, Paul?

CALLAN: Well, you know, in a murder case we look for means, motive and opportunity, OK? Means, we have in this case because there's actually a videotape of him shortly after the murder with a gun in his hand, Hernandez. We have opportunity because we have evidence putting him in the car with the murder victim shortly before the murder.

So, the one thing we're missing is motive. Now, this weird relationship with two sisters -- his fiance is the sister of the girlfriend of the deceased guy, Lloyd. Now, is the motive the fact that one woman told the other woman about some nefarious things in his background and maybe he was afraid that Lloyd was going to reveal these things?

Now, I'm speculating here, but with that close a relationship between the two women, maybe that's a possibility. And maybe that's the reason why the prosecutor said, I'm going to leave more women on this jury because they understand about the intimate relationship between women and how they might be willing to discuss, you know, the fiance.

I'm not stereotyping women. Don't look at me like that, Carol. Don't look at me. But women do tend to get involved in these discussions in a way that I think men do not. So, maybe motive appears.

COSTELLO: OK. So, in order to achieve that the prosecutors are going to have to put on one fine case, right, Anne? But Aaron Hernandez has some pretty fine attorneys of his own.

BREMNER: He does. I mean, they're both, you know, Harvard, 20, 30 years of experience. You know, nature can be sliced so thin so it doesn't have two sides. I mean, defense has a case. No motive, no eye witnesses. There's absolutely no forensic evidence they're saying. There's no exculpatory statements. So, you know, they're coming into this -- by surgically getting rid of

the -- and shrinking the universe of damming evidence, they're coming into this where they've excluded, you know, texts, they've excluded .45 ammo, that's the murder weapon, from his apartment. They've excluded cell phones, they've excluded texts, they've excluded the tablet evidence.

It's pretty amazing what they've gotten out of this case. Great lawyers, indeed.

COSTELLO: All right. I'm going to have to leave it there. Thanks to both of you, Paul Callan, Anne Bremner. I'm sure I see you throughout the week.

BREMNER: Thank you.

CALLAN: Thank you.

COSTELLO: Thank you so much.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, don't put the shovel away. The Northeast is in for more snow. Jennifer Gray is in Boston.

JENNIFER GRAY, AMS METEOROLOGIST: That's right. We are in Boston. When you look behind me, look at all of this snow.

The last thing you want to hear is more snow. That's exactly what we're telling the Northeast. We'll talk about it all coming up after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CUOMO: They shoveled out the path by hand and they promised to keep it clear for Bud whenever it snows.

CAMEROTA: That's so beautiful. Thanks.

PEREIRA: Love it.

(CROSSTALK)

CUOMO: Right?

CAMEROTA: Love it.

PEREIRA: Gorgeous.

CUOMO: The "Good Stuff." Thank you so much, fellas, for making Bud's day and our day as well.

Time for the "NEWSROOM" with Miss Carol Costello.

A daisy a day, Carol. A daisy a day.

CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: What? A daisy a day. I like that. I'll carry that with me throughout the day. Thank you. Have a great day.

NEWSROOM starts now.

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

COSTELLO: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me. We begin with breaking news.

Time is running out. An ISIS deadline to release a convicted terrorist is up in just a matter of minutes.

This is the woman terrorists say they want freed from a prison in Jordan. She was sentenced to death in 2006 for her role in a deadly string of hotel attacks that killed at least 57 people. Jordan's government says it is willing to release her if ISIS frees a pilot captured last month while conducting coalition airstrikes. Now this pilot's fighter jet crashed while flying over Syria.

But a big question remains. Is this pilot actually alive? Jordan's Foreign minister telling CNN his government has requested proof of life from ISIS but so far has not received it.

Also facing an uncertain fate, another hostage. Japanese journalist Kenji Goto. It's not clear if ISIS will spare his life if Jordan meets the demands.

We're following the latest developments with our team of experts. CNN's Will Ripley live in Tokyo, Jomana Karadsheh is in Amman, Jordan. At the Pentagon, CNN's Barbara Starr. And in Washington CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen.

I want to start with you first, Will. Do we have any indication that this exchange will actually happen?

WILL RIPLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, this news, Carol, just coming out of Jordan that they have still yet to receive proof of life is very discouraging for government officials here in Tokyo because according to the latest ISIS propaganda message, the condition for Kenji Goto's survival is a prisoner exchange at the border between Syria and southern Turkey in less than 30 minutes from now.

ISIS demanding that Sajida al-Rishawi be handed over in exchange for Goto's life. And while this new propaganda message doesn't specifically threaten Goto's life if this deal doesn't go down, it does threaten the life of the Jordanian pilot.

And given, Carol, that we're dealing with ISIS, a group that we have covered and we know of their brutality, their unpredictability, this is a very tense time here. There of course has been hope that Kenji Goto will make it out of this OK, but it's all -- it all depends on what happens with ISIS. And we just don't know right now.

COSTELLO: So, Jomana, still no proof of life from ISIS?

JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Still no proof of life, Carol, according to the Jordanian government a short time ago. We're hearing from the government spokesman here talking to state media saying that Jordan is ready, and it's still willing, as it announced yesterday, to release Sajida al-Rishawi, but what they're saying is that they will only do this on two conditions.

One, they want that proof of life. They have not received that yet, saying that they have asked for it. We've heard this from the Jordanian government saying for several weeks now in their indirect negotiations with ISIS they've been asking for proof of life that they have not received.

The other issue here, Carol, is they're saying that they are willing to release her but only in exchange for the captured pilot Mu'ath al- Kaseasbeh. Now this really is not the demand that ISIS has put out there. They said that they would kill him if the exchange between Sajida al-Rishawi and Kenji Goto does not happen.

So really here Jordan is putting out these terms and conditions but it does not really fulfill what ISIS is asking for so a very tough situation here. And as you mentioned, as the clock is ticking, very tense situation in Jordan. A lot of people waiting to see how this is going to end.

COSTELLO: Peter, it's strange. I mean, ISIS says Kenji Goto's voice on audiotape but no proof of life from this pilot. Why would that be?

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, I don't know. But I mean, it's interesting to me, the audiotape which is -- you know, there was some speculation, I think ill-informed, that this was not Kenji Goto, and you know, it's very easy to make a voice analysis that matches to the voice and clearly the Japanese government is convinced that this is him.

I think that, you know, ISIS may have lost whatever that location was, whether it was in the desert or in a studio, may have security concerns about a videotape and audio is basically it's harder to, you know, make any kind of intelligence clues from an audiotape. So it may go to the fact that they're under pressure, that they have released it this way without the kind of production, that is we've seen associated with other tapes.

But, you know, why they went to audio isn't clear. But that is sometimes an indication that a terrorist group has lost its ability to have a sophisticated propaganda machine for one reason or another.

COSTELLO: So, Peter, what you're saying, the reason that ISIS is not offering Jordan proof of life is because it's too dangerous for ISIS to do so?

BERGEN: Well, I just don't know. But I mean, I'm focusing on the audio portion of this. It -- you know, it is strange that we're not seeing videos. And there may be a reason for that related to the location that they had may not be something that they can use again. Whether that was in a studio as some people have speculated, whether that was outside, and I think it may go to the pressure that they're under.

I mean, we've heard from CENTCOM that 6,000 ISIS fighters have been killed in strikes in the last six months. So that's about 200 a week since the campaign began. We've heard from CENTCOM's commander, General Lloyd Austin that they're having a manpower issue. So this audiotape may be an indicator that the group is under more pressure than we perhaps have assumed so far.

COSTELLO: OK. Barbara, it's also interesting in a macabre kind of way the way ISIS wants Jordan to -- you know, to exchange prisoners, right? They want it at the Syrian-Turkish border at sunset. So if that really happens, what would exactly that look like?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think one of the key questions there is exactly who the Jordanians may have been talking to in ISIS or what third parties they're discussing these negotiations with.

The arrangement typically in these kinds of matters are very precise. Who shows up, where they show up, what time, the proof of life exchanged ahead of time and the procedures. You'll remember in the exchange for Beau Bergdahl, that happened on very short notice in terms of the location. U.S. Special Forces were able to fly there very quickly, but it had been worked out. There were security procedures in place. Very quietly the deal had been cooked.

So whether the deal is exactly cooked right now remains to be seen. One of the keys is this female prisoner is going to have to come all the way from Jordan if this is going to happen, into this border region between northern Syria and Turkey. No indication that she's left Jordan yet, that she's been transferred in any way. These are all the things, all the signs that people are looking for -- Carol.

COSTELLO: Jomana, if this deal falls through, how will the people of Jordan react? Because they're not exactly thrilled that Jordan's involved in this fight anyway, right?

KARADSHEH: There is a difference of opinion here, Carol. First of all, we have to look at the family of Mu'ath al-Kaseasbeh. He comes from an influential tribe in Jordan. The tribes are important in their support for the monarchy here. So there is a level of anger amongst his tribes members, his direct family, blaming the government for this, saying that the government has not done enough. But there are other Jordanians, Carol, who say that he is the soldier

end of the day and soldiers sign up to serve their country and they do take these kinds of risks. But, of course, this whole situation as you mentioned has really ignited this discussion in Jordan. Should this country have joined the U.S.-led coalition in the fight against ISIS or not? Some believe that this is not Jordan's fight, they should not have taken part in these airstrikes and Jordan would not have been in this position if it had stayed out of it.

COSTELLO: And, Will, I know Kenji Goto is part of the negotiations, but the Japanese government or military is not directly involved, right?

RIPLEY: Well, they're involved in the sense that they have a special envoy on the ground in Amman who has been intimately involved in the discussions but, yes, in the end this is Jordan's decision. It is their prisoner. It is their exchange and it is their citizen who is also in grave danger at the hands of ISIS, but Japan does have some leverage in the region. They, you know, as you know, recently pledged $200 million in humanitarian aid.

Some of that money, presumably, would go to help the Iraqi and Syrian refugees, a large number of them who are in Jordan. And so Japan certainly is at the table, but in the end it is the king of Jordan who must make the call whether or not to move forward with this and that is still an unanswered question right now.

COSTELLO: Just how painful for Kenji Goto's family.

Peter, when you sit back and you take a look at this from afar and put everything together, does it tell you anything about the strength of ISIS?

BERGEN: Well, I mean, one thing that I think is very interesting building off something that Barbara said is that who is the interlocutor on the Jordanian side with ISIS? Because as far as I can tell, this seems to be the first time that a -- you know, a government has had direct negotiations with ISIS. We've seen in the past, for instance, Theo Curtis was an American journalist who was taken by the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, the Nusra Front. And we know that the Qatari government got involved in negotiations.

And, you know, paradoxically, Carol, you know, negotiating with al Qaeda in Syria turns out to be easier than dealing with ISIS. So hitherto we haven't had a direct line of communication with ISIS through a -- you know, through a legitimate government. And you know, that's good potentially because there are other hostages being held. We have an American female, a 26-year-old aid worker who's been held by ISIS, by the same people who are holding -- Mr. Goto.

We also have a British citizen being held. And we have others potentially. So to me in the long term this may be a good sign that we have some kind of avenue of communication into this group because of these other hostages as well.

COSTELLO: And, Barbara, as far as the wider war against ISIS, are there indications because of all that's happening right now that the U.S. airstrikes might be effective after all?

STARR: Well, I mean, certainly they're effective on the ground where they happen. We have seen in the last couple of days that northern Syrian city of Kobani now essentially back in Kurdish hands. The city virtually destroyed, but back in Kurdish hands. ISIS pretty much driven out of there.

We have seen areas where ISIS has had some problems. They have not been able to hold on to all of the territory. There is a sense, if you will, that they are having trouble governing delivering on the promises that they made to the people where they are so they're resorting to more terror to hold on to all of this. The next big challenge is Iraq's second largest city, Mosul. The Iraqi forces along with U.S. advisers are getting readied. We've seen a lot of action up in Mosul.

They're going to try and retake Mosul from ISIS. That is the big get, if you will, to put, you know, a serious crimp in ISIS' capability. All of that said, the head of U.S. Special Forces this week said that ISIS is still a recruiting powerhouse, that they are able to recruit foreign fighters to come to this battlefield in what he called a staggering rate.

So while people are saying that the airstrikes are having an effect, the real question, I suppose, is what is the effect on ISIS as a terrorist organization? They may not be able to hold on to territory forever, but is this going to put them down and out? And right now there is perhaps very little indication of that.

COSTELLO: All right. I'm going to have to leave it there.

Barbara Starr, Peter Bergen, Jomana Karadsheh, Will Ripley, thanks to all of you.

That deadline fast approaching. Just about 20 minutes to go. Will we see a prisoner exchange? We just don't know. I'll keep you posted.

Also to come in the NEWSROOM, from the locker room to the courtroom, an NFL star in handcuffs and now on trial.

CNN's Alexandra Field and the murder case against Aaron Hernandez.

ALEXANDRA FIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol. Shortly we will hear the opening statements from the prosecution followed by the defense, and then the first witnesses will be called to testify.

We'll talk about who we could hear from today coming up next.

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