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Interview with Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili; War Against ISIS; Investigating TransAsia Crash

Aired February 05, 2015 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's move on, top of the hour. I'm Brooke Baldwin. You're watching CNN.

ISIS, ISIS snapping these incredible pictures here of the moment U.S. warplanes pound this weapons facility and a factory used to make car bombs. These are pictures of Syria, target of unprecedented new wave of airstrikes on ISIS targets.

And while Jordan set its crosshairs on Raqqa -- remember, Raqqa is this unofficial stronghold, the capital -- these pictures showing Jordan dropping these bombs, making good on their king's vow of vengeance for the burning alive of that young captured Jordanian fighter pilot.

Today, Jordan's King Abdullah paid his respects to the dead pilot's father. But he also did something a little unorthodox, ordering his warplanes to then fly over the pilot's hometown after their bombing run. Jordan saying this is the Muslim world's war now.

A government spokesman speaking to CNN a short time ago uses this word Da'esh, a derogatory Arabic acronym, for ISIS. Here he was.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOHAMMED AL-MOMANI, JORDAN GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN: This is our war. This the Muslim world's war. And this is the Arabs' war, because Da'esh is in the front of Jordan and putting threats to Saudi Arabia and to Kuwait and other Gulf countries, as well as Iraq and Syria, of course.

So it is logical for all of us to say and understand and accept that this is our war, especially that Da'esh is committing this war on the name of Islam, which is absolutely incorrect and not true.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Back here in the United States, President Barack Obama capitalized on this new wave of religious condemnation being echoed by Muslims all around the world.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: No God condemns terror. No grievance justifies the taking of innocent lives or the oppression of those who are weaker or fewer in number. And so, as people of faith, we are summoned to push back against those who try to distort our religion, any religion for their own nihilistic ends.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Let's go to Jordan now to Becky Anderson. She is live this evening for us in Amman.

And we have this photo, Becky. The royal court posted this photo of the king himself. Here he is in this military flight suit. You're there on the ground talking to Jordanians. Do they feel like they're suddenly in this new war?

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. It will be interesting to get their reaction to that video that you have just been showing our viewers which was released in the last hour on state TV here.

No exact locations identified. But in this statement from the Jordanian armed forces confirming these airstrikes today, they said -- and I quote -- "In loyalty to our martyred hero Captain Muath al- Kaseasbeh and in a mission named Muath the Martyr, tens of Royal Jordanian Air Force fighter jets delivered several airstrikes against the terrorist Da'esh position at 11:00 a.m. this morning."

These positions, they say, ammunition dumps, were training facilities. The statement went on to say all facilities that they targeted were destroyed. We're told by Syrian activists that other coalition airstrikes attacked a town some 600 kilometers northeast of Damascus today, where 20 strikes hit targets and 10 ISIS militants were killed.

So, clearly, a ratcheting up of efforts, as the king had vowed in what he suggested would be a harsh response to release of video of that young pilot released by ISIS apparently showing that he was killed in Raqqa, where the airstrikes were delivered by Jordanian aircraft today.

Remember, that video shown famously now in front on big screens in front of ISIS supporters in Raqqa. This is a stronghold of ISIS militant support in Syria. We are clearing seeing, as I say, a ratcheting up of the efforts, Brooke.

And this, remember, only 72 hours or so after King Abdullah was in Washington, a visit that he had to cut short to return here. But he was there to appeal to Obama administration and to those on Capitol Hill that they must stick with this fight and intensify the support for the Arab allied coalition here.

It seems to a certain extent that that is Jordan flying its missions at present, and perhaps not much else from those Arab allied coalitions. But it's about getting support on the ground for those who are fighting ISIS, the tribes in Iraq and in Syria. But certainly we're seeing a clear intensified effort on the part of the Jordanians, as promised by the king, what, 24 hours ago -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: Yes. I want to stay on this notion of the ratcheted-up support. Becky Anderson in Amman, thank you.

First though in Iraq, the U.S. says it is successfully pushing back the ISIS onslaught. In Syria, not quite as successful. The White House calls it the Syria challenge. How does the U.S. get to ISIS in a country where it seems there is no trust?

I have David Lesch here with me. David serves as a consultant to U.S. and European governments and the U.N. He's met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad multiple times. He's also author of "Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad."

David, welcome back.

DAVID LESCH, AUTHOR, "SYRIA: THE FALL OF THE HOUSE OF ASSAD": Thank you.

BALDWIN: You have just returned, I understand, from trips both to Lebanon and to Jordan meeting with stakeholders here in this war. Can we just begin with this notion that it's been really tough for the coalition to hit Syria because of this lack of intel on the ground? How does Jordan carry out airstrikes inside of Bashar Assad's Syria? How do they do that with the lack of intel?

LESCH: I don't think it's a lack of intel right now.

I think with proper sources -- and certainly Jordanian intelligence is very important to the overall coalition effort. They can hit ISIS wherever they want. It's just that the emphasis has been on Iraq because certainly the perception is that we have a partner, much more of a partner in the governor of Iraq than we do in Syria.

Once the situation is taken care of in Iraq, so to speak, then we will move on to Syria. And of course this has been the position of the Syrian government is that they can help in all of this. They have penetrated ISIS, because a lot of these guys used to Iraqi Baathists and they have knowledge of them. They have tried to position themselves as a government that can help the U.S. and the anti-ISIS coalition.

But obviously that's a hard sell in the capital of those countries that have been against the Syrian government.

BALDWIN: Let me just -- off of what you're saying, what happens once you have these airstrikes in Syria? We know how the U.S. feels about Bashar al-Assad. What happens then in locations that are hit?

LESCH: It's again -- this moment right now may be important in shifting the narrative away from what had been sentiments that were neutral and even pro-ISIS to maybe anti-ISIS sentiments in important areas in the Middle East, particularly in Sunni countries and particularly in Jordan.

And so it's important that the U.S. feels it takes advantage of this. That's why Jordan is hitting so hard right now to get to stay on top of this narrative. But just remember we're always just one stray bomb hitting a hospital in Raqqa and killing innocent children from the narrative shifting back in another direction.

And that's one of the problems in the anti-ISIS effort right now. BALDWIN: What about Becky Anderson, our correspondent in Amman,

Jordan, talking about the swift response from Jordan? Here we are now within basically 48 hours. You had the executions, including that failed female Iraqi suicide bomber who had been on death row in Jordan, and then these airstrikes.

This is a culture that's not entirely been supportive of this U.S.-led war. Does this swift retaliatory response, David, does it surprise you?

LESCH: No, not at all.

King Abdullah of Jordan had to do something. Again, I was just in Jordan. I left just before the execution of the Jordanian pilot. But it was major news. And everyone was talking about it and was very worried about the pilot and what would happen.

But just remember that there were probably just as many sentiments in Jordan saying this is a result of our participation in pro-U.S. policies and participation in the anti-ISIS coalition, as opposed to ISIS just being a brutal, thuggish organization.

So, King Abdullah is compelled to do something to help shape the narrative and take advantage of these -- this convulsive sentiment that's erupted that is anti-ISIS. And so if he didn't do anything, he would be looked at as a weak. And he has to take advantage of this. So, I'm not surprised at all that this type of immediate action was taken.

BALDWIN: David Lesch, your book is "Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad."

Thank you so much, sir. Come back.

LESCH: My pleasure.

BALDWIN: Just ahead, we will speak live the Navy SEAL who says he shot Osama bin Laden. We will talk to him about these reports of a secret mission to rescue that Jordanian pilot.

Plus, on the brink. The situation is escalating quickly inside of Ukraine, as the U.S. demands Russia leave now -- next, one of Vladimir Putin's most famous enemies joins me, a man who says Putin wanted to hang him by the you know what.

And new audio from the plane crash caught on camera, a crash in which some passengers survived.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: We have to talk about what's happening in Ukraine here. One of Vladimir Putin's biggest enemies is actually about to join me in just a moment to take us inside the Russian leader's mind, inside of his head as best as he possibly can.

The U.S. is urging Vladimir Putin to pull Russian troops out of Ukraine, stop pretending that Russia isn't meddling there. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is in Kiev today. He says Russia is sending instruments of death, his words, into Ukraine and firing on hospitals, on schools, on crowds of people.

How did the situation get to this point?

Let me just back up for just a moment and first take you back to 2004. Russia's candidate won Ukraine's presidency. His opponent, by the way, got dioxin poisoning during that campaign. That president though was then ousted in 2005. Flash forward to 2005, that same Russian- backed leader returns as Ukraine's president. He then gets booted in 2014. Weeks later, Russia annexes Crimea.

Flash forward six morning months. Malaysian Flight 70 crashes in Eastern Ukraine amid all this fighting in this part of the country. Everyone on board was killed.

And my guest actually had the guts to stand up to Putin when Russian tanks invaded his small country more than six years ago. He says Putin wanted to hang him by his private parts. We have had that conversation on TV already. The former president of Georgia held his ground until Russian tanks retreated.

He's Mikheil Saakashvili, former president of Georgia. He joins me now live in Kiev.

Mr. President, welcome back to the show.

MIKHEIL SAAKASHVILI, FORMER PRESIDENT OF GEORGIA: thank you. Thank you for inviting me.

BALDWIN: Let's first begin with Vladimir Putin's timing here. I understand you think it's very, very deliberate, because right now so much of the world is focussing on Iraq, Syria, ISIS, that Putin is choosing this moment to launch this new offensive.

SAAKASHVILI: Yes.

Actually, I think, in a way, he thinks that the tragedy that's happening in the Middle East is a blessing in disguise for him because it really diverts the world's attention away from another tragic situation, what is happening in Ukraine daily, killings, shellings, lots of civilian populations displaced, seizing another country's territory which happens to be the largest country in Europe.

It's really a big geopolitical drama which has kind of dropped off from the radars of at least wider television audiences and certainly it's helping Putin.

BALDWIN: So here you have then Secretary Kerry where you are in Kiev today and this notion of potentially having the United States lethally arm Ukrainians ahead of this larger fight.

Do you think that there's any risk in arming Ukrainians?

SAAKASHVILI: Well, look, there has been an ongoing debate for quite a long time. There are situations where weapons can only be stopped with weapons.

The situation reminds me of war in Afghanistan where actually the Soviets lost it through combination of two factors, the lower oil, gas price and the arm pads, Stinger missiles that President Reagan supplied to Afghan rebels. You have again dropping oil price and you have again aggressive Russia.

And actually what really -- the Ukrainians really need at this stage and what they have been desperately asking for was anti-armor weapons because they're being attacked by Russian armor, obviously. They're being attacked by Russian artillery so they need artillery discovery devices. They are (INAUDIBLE) and they need unmanned flying vehicles.

So, that's what Americans might be giving them now. I think it's high time to give it. Actually, Hillary Clinton had the point when she said, well, Ukrainians deserved it through their heroic resistance. They really are standing up to this overwhelming Russian force.

And Putin, it is not by any accident that Putin started to talk now because he learned that American weapons are on their way. He will again to try to win time. He will try to seize the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine and then try to force Ukrainian forces to flee and go for a coup in Kiev.

That's more or less his plan. But it can be stopped through concentrated actions of Ukrainians and their western allies. And I think at this step in terms of weapons, it's a step in the right direction, certainly.

BALDWIN: It's night. You sound like you're saying you think Putin is being reactionary because he's hearing the U.S. may be arming some of these Ukrainians. But you know very, very well Putin as an enemy and fighting up against him.

When we talk about the crippled Russian economy, despite all of these sanctions that continue to be slapped on, he continues to push, it's impossible to climb inside his brain, but my question to you would be, what is he thinking?

SAAKASHVILI: I think he knows that the Russian economy is in dire straights. He knows that Russia is heading for collapse.

But he's betting on Ukraine collapsing first. And what he thinks is that Ukraine collapses within next several months. If he makes -- goes for, arranges regime change in Kiev through combination of economic pressure, chaos, military defeat, then he might get another couple of years until oil prices rebound, until there is some kind of a change U.S. administration or maybe some other changes in Western capitals, and people just give him an out.

He gets another -- maybe another 10 or 15, 20 years at the helm of Russia. He's really gambling on this. And I think it very much reminds me of the situation of 2008. What happened in 2008, because today we also have European leaders here in Kiev -- we had Europeans doing mediation, but Europeans are from Venus and the Americans are from Mars. So, only America stepping in 2008 and saying we will basically arrange

something like no-fly zone over Georgia, we will go for military humanitarian intervention stopped Putin. It wasn't European mediation. He basically used European mediation to buy time to maneuver, to get some propaganda advantage.

But he never thought to stop. Indeed, after he signed cease-fires with Europeans, then it was France, President Sarkozy, he advanced. And then it took the United States to make decisive military statements and moves on the ground with the use of Sixth Fleet and aviation for them to stop.

This guy only understands sheer force. This is not the guy who understands goodwill or diplomacy. He could not care less. He will be cynical. He will go for deceit. Anybody who is dealing with him should know that he's not somebody to rely on these peaceful talks. But certainly he's somebody who clearly understands the language or toughness when the other side is willing to be tough, except until now, very few people were willing to be tough. And it was all left to the Ukrainians to stand up for themselves.

(CROSSTALK)

SAAKASHVILI: Basically, they're fight of the free world. This is for freedom and -- freedom of the world and democracy that is being at stake right now.

BALDWIN: President Saakashvili, you walked through exactly what happened and what you experienced in 2008. In 20 seconds, what does your gut say about Ukraine, the future?

SAAKASHVILI: I think it all depends upon the Westerners.

The Ukrainians are showing miracles of heroes. This country deserves to be helped. And it's in the interest of West and the United States to rescue them because by that they're risking the idea of freedom, democracy. And basically Americans want free from world wars in Europe, First World War, Second World War, and the Cold War.

They're not -- they are not willing -- I guess they are not willing to lose now. And they should not lose now. And they will not lose now. In the end, Putin will collapse. The issue will be at what cost and at what stage. It should not be too late and at too much cost. I think we should have known better than that. I think we're on the right track right now.

BALDWIN: OK. OK. Let's hope so.

Mikheil Saakashvili, former president of Georgia, live in Kiev, thank you for the time. Appreciate it.

SAAKASHVILI: Thank you. Thank you very much.

BALDWIN: Coming up next, when you see a crash like this, you have to wonder, my goodness, how does anyone survive? But 15 souls managed to do exactly that. Hear how a dad saved this toddler and his wife by acting on a hunch right before that took off.

Plus, Brian Williams is apologizing for telling a false story about his time in Iraq during the war -- how his story has changed over the years and how veterans are reacting, just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: A father's hunch may have saved his family's life.

Minutes before that doomed TransAsia flight took off from Taipei, Taiwan, this strange noise prompted a young father to switch where his family was sitting on the aircraft. He says that that gut decision to move away from the left side of the plane, which took the brunt of the crash, by the way, likely saved his wife and the life of his young toddler.

That child was among the 15 who managed to survive the crash; 32 others died; 11, by the way, are still missing. We learned today that analysis of the black box flight data recorders is complete. We should soon learn what was discovered, why exactly this plane went down.

But let's go to Miles O'Brien, our aviation analyst here at CNN.

Miles, I have talked about this the last couple of days. How -- in terms of surviving on a plane when it crashes, whether it actually matters where on the aircraft you're seated vs. just a lot of luck, what do you think?

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN AVIATION ANALYST: Well, I think we have to be careful on this. There's correlation-causation problem here when we talk about people who unbuckle their seat belts or move to the other side.

I think the thing that's really important though for you and I to think about when we get on the plane, instead of burying ourselves in our iPad or going to sleep, it's really good to pay attention during the first and the last minute of a flight, because what was really interesting is the guy said I heard something funny and I decided to move away from the engine that was making the funny noise.

That might very well have saved their lives. When you get on a plane, don't ignore that briefing. Carry a flashlight. Count the number of rows to the exit row. Sit in the exit row if you can and want to, and you got a better chance of surviving these...

(CROSSTALK)

BALDWIN: Do you do that really do that every time you get on a plane, Miles O'Brien?

O'BRIEN: I do. I actually do.

But I try to think of myself -- I'm an aviation geek. I'm watching whether the flaps are set right. I'm just kind of that way. But I think -- of course, sometimes I nod off too. This does happen. It's important to try to stay alert.

When you're rolling down the runway, Brooke, the average time on the runway is about 30 seconds before the nose points up. If it gets much beyond 30 seconds -- and this varies a little bit whether if you're in Phoenix in the summer, that kind of thing, but, nevertheless, give or take 30 seconds.

If you're still rolling, pay attention. And maybe you should start thinking about being ready. Where is that exit row? What should I do? Should I brace myself? These are things -- it's not so much where you park your backside. It's where your head is at when you get on the plane.

BALDWIN: OK. I will now have the voice of Miles O'Brien when I take off and land, thanks to you. Thank you.

What about this? Let me ask you about this mayday call that was heard across the airwaves that may have come from within the cockpit. A male voice was saying -- quote -- "Mayday, mayday, engine flameout."

What exactly are pilots trained to do in case that were to happen?

O'BRIEN: Well, you know, it's interesting.

We're drilled, as pilots, to aviate, navigate and then communicate.