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Airstrikes Pound ISIS Targets in Mosul; Obama, Merkel Press Conference Shortly; Lawmakers Call for More Aide to Ukraine; Split in Obama Administration Over Arming Ukraine; Ukraine Fight Has Potential to Get Worse

Aired February 09, 2015 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's discuss this and more on the ISIS front. Bring in CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank, as well as CNN global affairs analyst and retired Lieutenant Colonel James Reese.

Colonel, first to you. On the specific issue of what's going on in Mosul, lay out why this is so important in the fight against ISIS. And also, what is the state of play on the ground there?

LT COL. JAMES REESE (RETIRED), CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, Kate, Mosul is the second largest city in Iraq. It was the first major city that ISIS, when they did their blitzkrieg across the north from the west, took Mosul down and it's become their staging place and their main city in Iraq. Right now with the Iraqi army along with the coalition forces, their aircraft and some Iranian Shia militia have worked their way north up the Tigris River Valley from Baghdad and taken down key cities. Peshmerga in the north have isolated Mosul and we're cutting off is' supply lines to allow them to resupply with people and ammunition in Mosul. They're surrounded. It's a large city so now Iraqis have to prepare to do is conduct urban warfare in a city of several million people, which could become problematic.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Problematic to say the least. You're talk block by block combat in a congested area right there.

Paul, when ISIS took Mosul, it was jaw dropping. It was the jaw dropping development in that region. It put ISIS on the map literally and figuratively for U.S. policy makers. How important do you think that that city is for ISIS? Do they need this presence in Iraq?

PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: It is absolutely crucial from an ISIS point of view. It will be a really difficult city to take. Remember how difficult it was for U.S. troops --

(CROSSTALK)

CRUICKSHANK: -- to take Fallujah in 2004. The Kurds don't have that much of an interest in taking the lead in this battle. Their main interest is defending Kurdish areas. The Iraqi army is not ready to take on Mosul and if they go with Shia fighting forces and Shia militias, that could backfire big-time. They need to integrate more Sunni forces into the Iraqi army. I don't think anybody thinks they'll be ready before the summer. Some Kurdish leaders talking about no operation until October. I think that ISIS could be in charge of Mosul for months and months to come and it will be a really difficult operation.

BOLDUAN: Talking about ISIS and the march that they have been making into Syria as well as Iraq. We're talking about also a new propaganda video that ISIS has put out. It doesn't maybe look like much if you will when you look at it.

I don't know if we can show folks. Thank you.

But what does this tell you? They are trying to send a message, Paul. You were talking about this. This was shot in Libya near Tripoli, between Tripoli and Benghazi. What are they trying to say?

CRUICKSHANK: ISIS is trying to send a message. We're expanding in Libya. This is 300 miles east of Tripoli, the capital. Late last month, we saw that attack from ISIS in Libya. An American killed in that attack. They have control of a town of 100,000 people in the east of Libya. They are expanding and taking advantage of this civil war in Libya to expand across the country. They are a force to be reckoned with.

The reason they have expanded in Libya is because of a return of 300 hardened Libyan veterans that fought with ISIS in Syria. They come back over the last several months and expanded across the country. This is really a new front for ISIS, along with Egypt, because a group of Egypt late last year which also joined the ISIS fighters. It's not just in Iraq right now. It's other countries in the region. A big challenge moving forward.

BOLDUAN: That also is why, at the same time you talk about a new front, we heard from Secretary of State John Kerry who said over the weekend that the U.S. is on the road to destroying ISIS. So you have new fronts and strong talk coming from the administration.

Paul, thank you.

Colonel, thank you as always.

Thanks so much.

BERMAN: That's it for us right now.

Up next, special live coverage of President Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel with a crucial press conference at the White House. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Hello. Welcome to our viewers in North America and around the world. Welcome to our special live coverage of the joint news conference that's coming up at the White House.

I'm Wolf Blitzer, reporting from Washington.

There you see live pictures from the East Room of the White House. President Obama and the visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel conferring right now on the latest multilateral attempt to bring cease-fire, if not peace to the situation in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Chancellor Merkel and the French President Francois Hollande will sit down with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. If that sounds familiar, it should. A 12-point peace plan came out of talks last September but it never actually turned into reality. Five months and thousands of casualties later, the West and Ukraine's pro-Western government insists Putin remove his fighters and heavy weapons from large parts of eastern Ukraine loyal to Moscow. Putin still won't admit that Russian troops on even there.

In Brussels today, the European Union agreed on another round of economic sanctions on pro-Russian separatists if nothing helps in Minsk. Overnight, the rebel-held city of Donetsk saw a huge exPLOsion at what was thought to be a chemical factory, but now thought to be an arms factory or depot.

Back in Washington, look for President Obama to face serious questions today on a growing call by so many U.S. lawmakers for the United States to start sending what's described as lethal aid, that's weapons, to Ukraine's army. Chancellor Merkel is firmly opposed to that idea.

Let's bring in our chief Washington correspondent, Jake Tapper.

He's got a lot of members in the House and Senate, and not only Republicans but Democrats, who want the U.S. to start sending lethal aid to the Ukrainian military. Getting resistance from the Europeans, especially Chancellor Merkel. What's going to happen?

JAKE TAPPER, CNN CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: That's the $64 million question. It's not just voices in Congress, Democrats and Republicans, on Capitol Hill. It's also people in his own administration who think the United States should be sending lethal aid. President Obama has so far let the German Chancellor Angela Merkel take the lead when it comes to Ukraine policy. She is opposed. She thinks sending in weapons from the United States, from other European countries, would only drag out and exacerbate this conflict. There are those that see, on Capitol Hill and those in the administration, who see anything other than help, anything other than lethal aid, people who call for a diplomatic solution to this, they see that as appeasement. What kind of diplomatic solution can there be? Will you give some of eastern Ukraine to Russia, as happened with Crimea? I have no idea where President Obama is going to land on this.

BLITZER: It will be the questions -- there will be two questions from American reporters at this joint news conference. Two questions from German reporters. They will open up with opening statements. The president and the chancellor presumably not only on this but other issues could come up, including what's going on in this war against ISIS.

TAPPER: Absolutely. Although there's more agreement there than there is on what's going on in Ukraine. Obviously, a lot of this meeting behind closed doors will be about economic development and trade deals and the like. But surely the focus will be and this press availability on Ukraine and what the United States should do, which many lawmakers want to do, that is completely at odds with one of our strongest allies in Europe, Chancellor Angela Merkel.

BLITZER: A significant potential source of friction there. We'll see what happens Wednesday in Minsk. As important as this meeting is, the Wednesday meeting in Minsk with all the leaders, including Putin and Poroshenko, that will be critical.

Stand by for a moment.

We have full analysis coming in. Our special live coverage of this news conference. Also here, our chief political analyst, Gloria Borger is here; our chief national correspondent, Jim Sciutto; national security analyst, Peter Bergen; and our national security commentator, Mike Rogers, joining us from Raleigh, North Carolina. Our senior White House correspondent, Jim Acosta, is already there in the East Room of the White House getting ready for this news conference.

I'll get to all of you in a moment.

I want to go to the region. Our senior international correspondent, Nick Paton Walsh, is joining us now from a brutalized area in Donetsk.

As bad as is it there, Nick, what you saw earlier in another town not very far away is simply awful.

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Staggering. The kind of wreckage we haven't seen in the former Soviet Union since the Russian region of Chechnya's capital was bombed twice in the '90s. This town, Ogledorsk (ph), to the northeast of where I am standing, on the outskirts of Donetsk, was caught in the crossfire as they moved quickly toward another key town they're trying to get hold of. This is key to the peace talks and discussions happening inside the White House, Wolf. There's reality on the ground of separatists well equipped. The U.S., NATO and Ukraine say by Russian military who also have personnel here too. They are moving through territory. They have broad ambitions. They want all of the Donetsk region back. Much of it they did control at some point last year. That's dictating reality here. Behind me you can hear the thump of what sounds like mortars. This is constant for the last three days.

I'm in the center of Donetsk here. We heard a loud exPLOsion last night which rattled the entire city which one European diplomat says was an armed depot being hit. This violence is casting civilians in the middle of it and the fear is that ahead of these peace talks in Minsk it could escalate. Both sides want to be in the best position on the battlefield militarily before they agree to a cease-fire. In the 36 to 40 hours ahead before maybe the four leaders find themselves to sit down together at a table, we could see an escalation here and more civilian lives lost or a dramatic change in events in the battlefield could sabotage those talks. Separatists themselves said we will not take one step back. That's going to make it hard to reconcile what Kiev wants, which is no real change to their borders and what it think may be during diplomatic rounds which is freezing of the conflict here and peacekeepers involved and recognition that frankly I'm standing in an area that separatists call their own republic. Ukraine, the West, doesn't recognize that. Running itself on Russian time. You have to cross through Ukrainian border guards to get into and frankly recognizes itself as Russia.

It's an extraordinary mess. A lot of damage to this one city of a million people and maybe there is some in Kiev who thinks it's time to let go of it and let Russia pick up the pieces however damaging to Ukrainian officials who want to see the fight for this area and Ukraine's territorial integrity continue.

BLITZER: Nick Paton Walsh, we'll get back to you in Donetsk.

Let's go to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine. Frederik Pleitgen is on the scene for us there.

We know the Ukrainian government and President Poroshenko has been begging for aid. He spoke before a joint meeting of Congress last September asking for military aid. The U.S. has not yet supplied it. Potentially, right now on the verge of starting what's called this defensive lethal aid to the Ukrainian military despite opposition of so many in Europe, including the German chancellor, Angela Merkel? What are they anticipating where you are in Kiev?

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: They are hoping for that aid. One thing they're looking forward to, before that, is this conference in Minsk. You see the Ukrainian government have a dual strategy in this. On one hand, it keeps calling for those weapons deliveries, and on the other hand, Petro Poroshenko says the talks in Minsk need to deliver an immediate cease-fire. They have various reasons for wanting the weapons. One is to stand up to the threat of Vladimir Putin but they say it's because their soldiers are dying on the battlefield because their equipment is old. What they're looking for, they say, on one hand anti-tank weapons. Something they say they need very badly. Even more than that, they say, they need electronic warfare equipment. One of the things they say they have a lot of difficulty with is they get shelled by the pro-Russian separatists and don't know where the shells are coming from so electronic equipment to help detect where shells are coming from and help them fire back is something they need badly and because they don't have those things is run of the reasons troops are on the defensive as bad as they are. You do sense here that there is a certain sense of disappointment that so far there hasn't been more aid for them to stand up to those pro- Russian separatists militarily, but there are politicians in Kiev who understand the positions of Angela Merkel that say, at this point in time, it would be difficult to introduce new weapons into the battlefield. So certainly these Minsk negotiations coming up will be something watched closely where Ukrainians say they don't have a lot of hope in these negotiations but it is certainly something where they say it is worth going through. And then after those negotiations, if indeed there is some sort of cease-fire agreement that is signed, they say the implementation will be key.

But, as you said at the beginning, Wolf, and this is certainly something that the government points to again and again, there have been agreements in the past. There's a Minsk agreement that in paper is in place, however on the battlefield means nothing as that agreement is in tatters from what we saw from Nick Paton Walsh as to how bad these sides are fighting at each other. They hope an agreement will be reached and the big issue will be will that agreement actually be honored?

BLITZER: That's a huge issue. We'll see what happens on Wednesday in Minsk.

Standby.

I want to go to the White House right now. Jim Acosta is in the East Room where the president and the chancellor will be walking in momentarily we're told.

This is a very difficult issue for the president. He's got to decide whether to go ahead with the dispatch of military equipment to the Ukrainian military in the face of strong opposition from a close ally like Chancellor Merkel.

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That's right. This is a critical game-changing question for President Obama as to whether or not he's going to provide those defensive weapons to Ukraine in this battle against those pro-Russian separatists and just last week you recall that his nominee for defense secretary, Ash Carter, was testifying on Capitol Hill that he was inclined to support such a decision, and I talked to a senior administration official after that comment was made who said the White House is not that far away from that position. So interesting movement in that direction but then it sort of everything changed over the weekend. We saw Joe Biden go to that security conference in Munich and give that very tough speech saying that Russia cannot be allowed to redraw the map of Europe, but then Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, says she doesn't agree with this position. She does not think it will help the situation to dump more weapons into eastern Ukraine. And it talked to a senior administration official this morning who said this is being hotly considered inside this White House, the president wants to hear from Chancellor Merkel. And, Wolf, it think it would be a big departure from the Obama doctrine against interventionalism and unilateralism and pro-multinational cooperation and for the president to move toward with the decision to provide weapons without the support of Angela Merkel and before the summit that happens on Wednesday.

As for other issues that might come up, of course, the situation with ISIS, the war on ISIS. We still don't have a status update on what happened to that hostage, Kayla Mueller, who ISIS claims was killed in that Jordanian round of airstrikes late last week. We'll wait to see if somebody asks a question about that. A curveball to watch and listen for during this news conference.

Keep in mind Chancellor Merkel is that foreign leader spied upon by this administration. Remember when the White House had to apologize to Angela Merkel for that? German press, it's a big subject of discussion in Germany, and it may be an opportunity for the Germans to ask the president what has changed with respect to that surveillance program so that sort of thing doesn't happen again. BLITZER: We'll see what those two German reporters ask. Two American

reporters will have a chance to ask questions. There will be lengthy opening statements from both of these both of these leaders.

We have full coverage coming up. Let's take a quick break. Much more after this

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: You're looking at life pictures from the East Room of the White House. The chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel will be walking in together with President Obama. They've been in the Oval Office in the West Wing. They've been conferring on several different issues. Right at the top of the agenda, Ukraine. What's going to happen there. There's a war going on right now. I'm sure there will be several statements from both of these leaders as well as questions from reporters on what's going on in Ukraine, with also what's going on in the war with ISIS.

Gloria Borger, there seems to be a split in the Obama administration on whether to go and provide military equipment.

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: It's a public split as you've seen. Jim was referring to the incoming secretary of defense, Ash Carter. General Breedlove has talked about sending --

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: The NATO supreme allied leader.

BORGER: And you have a bipartisan group of United States Senators who said that they would approve it. Kerry seems to be tending in that direction. We're not sure about Joe Biden. His speech did indicate that he was thinking about that.

And the question that I have is really whether the threat of weapons deliveries could actually help Merkel and Hollande come to some diplomatic solution and whether there's a good cop/bad cop situation here where you have the public movement towards weaponry and then Merkel doing her diplomatic move. And maybe there's a sense inside this administration that they could help her with her diplomacy if the threats remain public and remain out there.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: The Obama administration, my clear sense from traveling with Secretary Kerry to the region at the end of last week, is that the direction is moving towards, if not making the decision to arm, there's a greater openness to arming. While the sanctions have raised the cost on the Russian economy, it has not changed it on the ground. Ukrainians view this as a life-or-death situation for their country. And when you look at the diplomacy so far, there was another Minsk agreement last September. Since that agreement was negotiated, a military occupation has been solidified in eastern Ukraine. Officials are talking about hundreds of ton of ammunitions that have gone in since then.

BLITZER: From Russia. SCIUTTO: From Russia. Heavy Russian artillery, radar jamming

equipment, serious stuff, and troops as well. Secretary Kerry was clear about that, as was the Ukrainian prime ministers and others, saying this is not separatists. They are part of it, but this is a Russian occupation. All of that has happened while the diplomacy is going on.

BORGER: Isn't the question also whether Angela Merkel would publicly condemn arming the Ukrainians? If she were to publicly condemn it, I don't think the president would do it.

SCIUTTO: The good cop/bad cop scenario is plausible. There are others who told me on the ground that they're generally concerned about whether that would escalate the situation. Without any benefit of actually changing the military calculation on the ground.

BLITZER: You know, Peter, there's a sense from the military analysts that I've been speaking to that the fear is that the Ukrainian military is not up to the job in the face of what would be an enormous Russian advantage on the ground. And even if the U.S. were to provide anti-aircraft missiles, the Ukrainian military still would not be able to do much against an invading Russian military force.

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY COMMENTATOR: I think there is also a view, and correct me if I'm wrong, Jim, that Putin is amenable to negotiation right now. The sanctions are hurting energy. Another round of sanctions would tank the Russian economy and that's seen as a point of leverage.

SCIUTTO: Well, there is talk of the oil price going up. But the other story I heard about Putin, while I was in Kiev, is Peter the Great, that he sees himself as restoring Russia's power and empire, and that's hard to deter --

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: We're going closer to the start of the news conference. You're seeing the delegations walking into the East Room of the White House, the German delegation there. There were reserved seats in the front row. The top national security advisers, foreign affairs adviser to the president they'll be walking in.

Let's bring in Mike Rogers, the former chair of the House Intelligence committee.

Congressman, this seems like an awful situation. Let's not forget, in the last several month, about 5,000 people have been killed, thousands have been injured, whole towns have been destroyed and leveled. As bad as it's been, there is a potential it could get a whole lot worse.

MIKE ROGERS, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY COMMENTATOR: Oh, absolutely. -- aren't able to at least hold ground under assaults from what the Russians would call little green men dotted across there who have little Russian forces in track suits. If there isn't a push back or a defensible position, Putin is going to continue what she's doing. We have to remember. Germany is not our only ally in the region. The poles who have been allies since the fall of the Soviet Union have been eagerly supporting getting arms to the Ukrainians so they can defend themselves. The Baltics also are very encouraging to try to help the Ukrainians fight for themselves.

BLITZER: What do you say, though, Mike Rogers, to Chancellor Merkel and other opponents supplying what's called defensive lethal aid to the Ukrainian military? They fear if the U.S. were to do so, it would only make matters worse because the fighting would intensify. The Russians and their supporters would really escalate the situation.

ROGERS: The only thing that's going to stop Putin's calculus now is if he starts losing on the ground, or at least not being able to advance on the ground. Cry Crimea is costing him a lot of money. I think you have to have a way to alter what the equation is on the ground. The only way to do that, it think, is by arming them. Remember what they're asking for, counter battery fire. They put in sophisticated artillery pieces. And they can fire an artillery piece that fires at them almost simultaneously. The Ukrainians are saying, give us the same thing so we can push back the way they're pushing us back.

BLITZER: I want to take a quick break. They're about to walk out. 60 seconds. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)