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Jeb Bush not Sweating the Polls; Fewer Americans Identifying as Christians; Deadly 7.3 Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Nepal. Aired 10:30-11a ET

Aired May 12, 2015 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[10:31:29] CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning. I'm Carol Costello. Thank you so much for joining me.

The Republican race may be heating up but Jeb Bush isn't sweating his recent lag in the polls. Here's what he told Fox News.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MEGYN KELLY, FOX NEWS HOST: You were off to a fast start initially. It slowed a little. Why is that?

JEB BUSH (R), FORMER FLORIDA GOVERNOR: I didn't slow down.

KELLY: Well, just in the polls. Just in the polls.

BUSH: The polls are totally irrelevant.

KELLY: Why is that? Can you get it going again?

BUSH: I am not a candidate yet. So polls are -- I think everybody needs to take a chill pill on the polls until it gets closer.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COSTELLO: Bush has not officially announced but he sure sounds like a candidate. And there's one issue that he championed that could really hurt him.

Dana Bash is in Washington with more on this. Good morning.

DANA BASH, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Carol. Do you feel better now that you have taken that chill pill? Everybody relax. That was kind of a classic there. Yes. Look. Jeb Bush is doing fine in the national polls but at this point especially when you're talking about a primary race, those are irrelevant. And when you talk about the specific state polls and the states where you're actually going to have voters go and determine whether or not he'll be the Republican nominee, he hasn't broken away from the pack.

There are a couple of issues that seem to be holding him back. And as you said, one is something that's relatively new in this election cycle and that is common core. It's a set of education standards that is run and determined by the states but still has a lot of people out there especially conservatives very upset because they are very worried that it's a slippery slope to what they call basically a federal school board, which they say is simply not the way to go.

But Jeb Bush has made common core very much a part of who he is well before he even thought about running for president again. He's been focusing on these issues and he defended his support for these standards in this interview.

Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Common core means a lot of things to different people. So they could be right based on what is in front of them. I respect people having a view. But the simple fact is we need higher standards. They need to be state-driven. The federal government should play no role in this either in the creation of standards, content or curriculum. That's what I believe.

And if we don't have high standards and assess to them faithfully, we get what we have today which is about a third of our kids being college and/or career ready. And by the way, and we spend more per student than any other country in the world other than a two or three countries.

I'm going to tell people what I think which is high standards are better than low standards. And I'm going to show them the record in Florida where we led the nation in terms of learning gains because we had -- we ended social promotion. We had the most dynamic school choice programs in the country, by far. I mean when people begin to see the Florida record and they see the learning gains that have taken place where we were at the bottom in graduation rate and moved to the middle where Hispanic and low-income kids are now national leaders in Florida compared to their peers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BASH: So you hear there Carol, he is unapologetic about his support for these common core education standards. And if you're not kind of really focused on this issue, maybe if you're not a parent or if you're not a conservative voter who is very concerned about the federal hand of government coming down even if it's just with standards, maybe you're not attuned to this.

But it is very, very, very important when it comes to these critical voters who are going to be going to the caucuses in Iowa, to the polls in New Hampshire and South Carolina and so forth down the road and down the calendar in 2016 who will determine who the Republican nominee is for president.

[10:35:10] COSTELLO: Great. Dana Bash, stick around because I want to talk to you after I get done reading this next story and use your fine political mind. Another possible challenge for Jeb Bush and frankly the rest of

the Republican field -- the number of Americans identifying themselves as Christians is dropping, fast. Take a look.

According to Pew Research, the number of Americans who consider themselves Christian dropped approximately eight percent in seven years. That means 71 percent identify themselves as Christians. 23 percent consider themselves religiously unaffiliated. Pew says while the drop in Christian affiliation is particularly pronounced among young adults, it's occurring among Americans of all ages and ethnic backgrounds.

Let's talk about how that may play into the 2016 presidential election and more with David Karol. He's a University of Maryland political science professor. He also co-wrote an influential book on the primary process called "The Party Decides". Welcome -- David. Thank you for being here.

And I'm going to bring in Dana Bash as well so she can add her two cents. But I want to ask you, David, how will religion play into the Republican primary this time around?

DAVID KAROL, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND: Well, I think all of the Republican candidates will support what we call socially conservative positions on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage so the base of the Republican Party hasn't changed that much. The demographic -- the change that you're reporting from that poll doesn't really alter their calculus for 2016.

COSTELLO: Should it though?

KAROL: No, I don't think it necessarily should. I mean this is -- a lot of people -- I think what's actually happened is a lot of people who were sort of nominally religious before are now feeling maybe it's ok to identify as nonreligious or secular and the younger people among whom this is especially common is less likely to vote, you know. People under 30 turn out at lower rates so I don't think we expect Republican candidates to say I'm not Christian either. I mean --

COSTELLO: I don't think so. Of course Jeb Bush would totally agree with you because he just spoke at Liberty University to polish his religious credentials. But Nate Silver raised that Bush is the least conservative of the Republican field. He's on par with his father.

So, Dana, if that's true, will it help? Will it hurt?

BASH: You know, it kind of depends on how he continues to frame himself and how he's perceived in that vein by Republican primary voters. You're right. He spoke to Liberty University in Virginia, a classic evangelical university founded by Jerry Falwell. It is a place where the Bush family has gone. He noted that in his speech.

So it's certainly kind of a rite of passage, if you will, for a lot of Republicans especially for a Bush. But I do think just being out on the campaign trail and listening to whether it's Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz, they talk about their faith very openly, very aggressively. And in the case of those and Mike Huckabee, of course, who is a pastor is authentic.

They genuinely do from what I understand behind the scenes have very strong faith and they are able to talk about it in a way that does connect with voters because I think that the professor is right that when it comes to the people who matter to them politically, that is absolutely key.

The people who are dropping off and saying that they're not as -- they don't feel as Christian are probably a lot less likely to vote especially in a Republican primary and go to a Republican caucus.

COSTELLO: All right. On a slightly different topic, David, Jeb Bush is front and center. He's right out there. He's talking. But he hasn't officially declared his intention to run for president. What does that signal to you?

KAROL: I think that that is really not very meaningful. He's been a presidential candidate in all but name for quite a while. And it's kind of a legal technicality. He has a super PAC and he's able to work closely with it as long as he's not a formal candidate.

But you know, Mitt Romney really smoked him out several months ago when Romney was getting into the race making moves and again not officially a candidate and all that. At that point Jeb Bush cleared his throat and said I'm interested in this job and showed more support than Romney had. But he's running. That's like the questions about is Hillary running or is Hillary not running? She was running for years and Jeb has been running for quite some time.

BASH: And Carol, I have a very official political term to describe why Jeb Bush is not announcing yet -- cha-ching. And that is true

[10:40:03] As David just said, he has a super PAC and a PAC and their strategy is to raise as much money in big dollar amounts which you can do before you're a federal candidate, an official candidate for president. You have very strict and relatively low by today's standards amounts that you can raise from individuals and so forth.

Before you're a candidate, like Jeb Bush is right now, he can raise unlimited amounts if he wants to. He personally decided that he's going to limit it at $1 million per person. But, you know, that's still a way to really rack up the dollars in your coffers even for a super PAC as much as possible before he becomes a federal candidate where he can't personally ask for those big dollar amounts anymore.

COSTELLO: Got you. Ok. So last observation here: No Republican governor or senator has actually jumped on the Bush bandwagon and said we support you wholeheartedly. David, should we read anything into that?

KAROL: Well, I think so. I mean it's true that he's not a formal candidate yet and I would expect he will get some endorsements when he formalizes his candidacy. The bottom line is he's not in the dominant position that his brother was at this time in the 2000 campaign cycle. He's not yet shown that he's the candidate who can unify the Republican Party elite and all the wings of the party. He's one of the major candidates but no more than that at this stage.

BASH: And one thing I want to say, I'm not sure if people realize this but very early on before Jeb Bush even made any public whispers about wanting to run, the House Speaker John Boehner very publicly encouraged him to run. He's very close to Jeb Bush. He hasn't endorsed him but he has all but done that. He's been very supportive of his candidacy.

COSTELLO: All right. Dana Bash, David Karol -- thanks to both of you. I appreciate it.

KAROL: Thank you.

BASH: Thanks.

COSTELLO: Still to come in the NEWSROOM, images of suffering. Fresh wounds for quake-ravaged Nepal hit with yet another earthquake.

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[10:45:14] COSTELLO: I want to update you now on the earthquake in Nepal. At least 53 people have now been killed in Nepal and India in this latest quake measuring 7.3 in magnitude. It struck near the border with China; the violent shaking sparking panic on the crowded streets of Kathmandu. The moment the quake hit caught on camera during a speech in parliament; terrified audience members hurriedly filing out of the building -- you see it there. This -- just three weeks since Nepal's massive quake that killed some 8,000 people across the region.

Joining me now, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers -- it's just hard to believe that another earthquake of that magnitude struck Nepal so soon.

CHAD MYERS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: It is.

Likely induced by the other earthquake -- I've heard it already called today -- I've heard it called the aftershock, an aftershock. Yes, it's right along the same fault -- Carol. And this is kind of how it works.

The India plate has been crashing into the Eurasia plate for millions of years. And that's why we have the mountains there in the first place. That's why Mt. Everest exists.

Here you go. Here's the earthquake today. Here's the earthquake a couple of weeks ago. Here's Kathmandu. And just to give you kind of an idea right up through here -- that's the trek, that's the trek all the way up to Mt. Everest. So this earthquake is actually closer to Everest than the last one. So the last quake made its rings this way; this quake making its

rings this way - the farther you get away from the epicenter, the lighter the shaking is but Kathmandu really got hit here. And here's what we're seeing. We're seeing this topography, the topography created by the crashing plates getting pushed up into the mountains and very, very rugged terrain through here. So as these landslides -- we've already been seeing a few of them have continued for most of the day, these landslides will continue all the way down even especially in the shaking where more aftershocks are coming.

Here's the numbers here. 7.3 the earthquake here, depth of 15 kilometers. That's exactly where we were. That's somewhere around ten miles -- ten miles deep. It was a major quake. Even on its own, even if it truly is the earthquake, an aftershock, it's in itself a major earthquake. About 3.8 million people actually felt the shock from that very heavy shock from that and we have the pager data saying that about 35 percent chance that there will be a hundred or more fatalities but at least not much of a chance of more than a thousand fatalities with this.

Think of the first earthquake that we had -- it was a big 7.8. It ruptured a crack in the earth like tearing apart a zipper -- Carol. Now the zipper didn't tear all of the way down. The rest of the zipper today did tear all the way down and it got to 7.3 -- the longer the fracture and the deeper and more quaking, the bigger the movement, the higher the number.

We had 7.8 then a 7.3. Now 7.3 is significantly less than 7.8. That 7.8 was a horrific quake for those people. But now that 7.3, we have to understand what it's doing it's shaking the buildings that are already broken and that's why they are falling even down more. A 5.3 aftershock now will bring down more buildings because again they are broken even more than they were -- Carol.

COSTELLO: All right. Chad Myers -- thanks so much.

Still to come in the NEWSROOM, Kanye West almost smiling -- I know it's ridiculous. But Jeanne Moos has to do it -- don't you know it.

We'll have that next.

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[10:52:16] COSTELLO: Checking some top stories for you at 52 minutes past, George Zimmerman involved in another violent confrontation in Florida. This time Zimmerman was on the receiving end of gunfire, hit by broken glass while driving when another motorist fired a gun at him. The other driver says he fired in self- defense after Zimmerman waved a gun at him. The two have a history including tense encounters last year. Zimmerman was acquitted of murder in the 2012 killing of unarmed teenager Trayvon Martin.

The Barack Obama Foundation made it official this morning. Obama's Presidential Library and Museum will be built in Chicago. The University of Chicago beating out Columbia, the University of Illinois and the University of Hawaii to host that presidential center.

Telecom giant Verizon is buying AOL for roughly $4.4 billion or about $50 a share. The deal combines Verizon's vast mobile network with AOL's massive content production capability. Verizon's long-term goal: to dominate content delivery to an increasingly mobile consumer base.

Check out this blue sunset on the red planet. This is what a sunset looks like from Mars. NASA says this was the first ever sunset observed in color by the Curiosity Rover. Apparently Fine particles in the thin Martian atmosphere create that cool blue look.

And lastly to Kanye West: finally proof the rapper does in fact smile. He just doesn't want you to see it.

Here's Jeanne Moos.

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JEANNE MOOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kanye West was caught in the act -- the unforgivable act of almost smiling before he managed to smother it. There's no smiling in Kanye world. This is the face he puts on to face the press. But in the Chicago versus Cleveland basketball game almost chuckling with former NBA star Scotty Pippen. Kanye's mask slipped. "Crap, they spotted me", read one caption. It happened before. For instance on Ellen and again while he was being interviewed by his mother-in-law, Kris Jenner.

KRIS JENNER, REALITY TV STAR: He would photo shop himself into the card as a joke.

MOOS: Off with the smile and on with a look one commenter described as "Overgrown man baby someone just put into time-out."

So why oh why doesn't Kanye smile? He once framed the explanation this way. When you see paintings in an old castle, people are not smiling because it just wouldn't look as cool, which Kanye looks cooler this one or that one? Kanye is following the model set by models, practically every face is a bummer.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you going to smile at all today?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you going to smile today?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't think so.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I tried to a little bit.

MOOS: No, you didn't try at all.

[10:55:03] At least Kanye isn't in denial. He himself tweeted out the Vine that's gone viral referring to himself as "Ye". "Ye almost let you all catch him having a good time -- almost. We have seen that flash of white teeth in between photos. Once

he literally kissed his smile goodbye. As for Kim she once Instagrammed, "See I do smile. Not too often though because it causes wrinkles.

But at least when Kanye gets caught without his trademark scowl, we howl.

(MUSIC)

MOOS: Jeanne Moos, CNN, New York.

COSTELLO: Thank you for joining me today. I'm Carol Costello.

"@THIS HOUR WITH BERMAN AND BOLDUAN" after a break.

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JOHN BERMAN, CNN HOST: Tragedy on top of devastation. A new powerful earthquake hits Nepal, dozens dead at least, more than a thousand injured. We have a live report from the ground.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN HOST: And what happened in the shooting death of Tony Robinson, Jr.? Very soon, a decision is expected and whether to charge the police officer who shot and killed the unarmed teenager. It could bring to an end weeks of uncertainty in Madison, Wisconsin. But how will the community react?

BERMAN: And the most severe penalty --